Fonterra Shareholders' Fund logo

Global Dairy Update May 2019

Operational Update30 May 2019FSFConsumer Staples

• Fonterra and The Coca‑Cola Company (Coca‑Cola) have
entered into a strategic alliance that aims to capture

opportunities in the growing dairy beverage category in

southeast Asia.

• FY19 nine‑month business update.

1

GLOBAL DAIRY

UPDATE

MAY 2019

• Significant monthly production declines

in New Zealand and Australia. Monthly

production eased in the US and holding at

current levels in EU.

• Exports from New Zealand and the

EU continue to grow. Australia and US

exports decline.

• Imports into Asia and China show strong

growth. Latin America and Middle East &

Africa down.

• Fonterra’s New Zealand milk collection in April

was 109 million kgMS, 9% down on last year.

• Fonterra changes tanker schedule for #1 fan – in the Te Rapa

district of Hamilton, our tanker drivers know that every

evening their biggest fan will be waiting for them on a dairy

farm on Reid Road.

KEY DATES

1 June 2019

Measurement Date for Share Standard 2019/20 Season

September 2019

FY19 Annual Results Announcement.

For further details view

our website –

To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year

changes in production –

%

%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for April 2019

compared to April 2018

Change for April 2019

compared to APril 2018

Change for March 2019

compared to March 2018

Change for March 2019

compared to March 2018

Change for the 12 months

to April 2019

Change for the 12 months

to April 2019

Change for the 12 months

to March 2019

Change for the 12 months

to March 2019

01010

501

1

2

2

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL PRODUCTION

SIGNIFICANT MONTHLY

PRODUCTION DECLINES

IN NEW ZEALAND AND

AUSTRALIA. MONTHLY

PRODUCTION EASED IN

THE US AND HOLDING AT

CURRENT LEVELS IN EU

New Zealand milk

production¹ was down 10%

in April compared to the

same period last year.

Dry conditions continued

across most of the North

Island and parts of the South

Island. Soil moisture was

below normal for most of the

North Island and a large part

of the South Island.

New Zealand milk

production for the 12 months

to April was 2% higher than

last year.

Fonterra collections are

reported for April, see page 5

for details.

Australia milk production

decreased 10% in March

compared to the same

period last year. This is the

lowest March production in

the last 20 years.

Continued drought

conditions and high input

costs continue to put

pressure on Australian

milk production because

of reduced supplemental

feeding, increased cow cull

rates and farm exits.

Production for the 12 months

to March was down 5% on

the previous 12 months.

Fonterra collections in

Australia are reported for

April, see page 5 for details.

EU milk production

increased 1% in March

compared to the same

period last year.

Strong growth continued in

the UK but it exports very

little product outside of the

EU. Ireland growth continued

with March up 11% compared

to the same period last year.

Key exporting countries

where production declined

were Austria, France and The

Netherlands, at 4%, 1% and

2%, respectively.

Production for the 12 months

to March was up marginally

compared to the same

period last year.

US milk production

increased 0.2% in April,

compared to the same

period last year.

Milk per cow continues to

increase but the continued

drop in cow numbers

continues to limit growth.

Low profitability is leading to

an increase in culling which

is expected to continue to

impact growth over the next

few months.

Milk production for the 12

months to April was just

under 1% higher compared

to the same period last year.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

1 New Zealand production for April 2019 is an estimate based on Fonterra’s actual milk collections for April 2019 and estimates for other New Zealand processors.

To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL EXPORTS

EXPORTS FROM

NEW  ZEALAND AND THE

EU CONTINUE TO GROW.

AUSTRALIA AND US MONTHLY

EXPORTS DECLINE

Total New Zealand dairy

exports increased by 27%,

or 75,000 MT, in March

compared to the same

period last year. This was

primarily driven by WMP,

fluid milk products, and

cheese, up 63,000 MT. Other

than a slight decline in butter

and casein, all other products

were up for the month.

Exports for the 12 months

to March were up 5%, or

176,000 MT, on the previous

comparable period. This was

primarily driven by WMP,

fluid milk products, and AMF,

up a combined 187,000 MT

and largely offset by SMP.

EU dairy exports increased

by 5%, or 22,800 MT, in

February compared to the

same period last year. This

was primarily driven by SMP,

and fluid milk products up a

combined 30,600 MT. This

was offset by declines in

whey powder and WMP.

Exports for the 12 months

to February were up 1%, or

60,100 MT, on the previous

comparable period. SMP,

lactose and infant formula

were up a combined

150,400 MT. This was

largely offset by a decline

in WMP, fluid milk products

and butter.

US dairy exports declined

10%, or 22,800 MT, in March

compared to the same

period last year. This was

primarily driven by base

commodities of SMP, whey

powder, lactose, WMP and

WPC, down a combined

25,200 MT. This was partially

offset by increases in cheese

of 3,700  MT.

Exports for the 12 months to

March 2019 were up 3%, or

68,300 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

Most products remain ahead

of the previous comparable

period but whey powder

and WPC are down. The US/

China trade dispute and

African Swine flu impacting

the China hog industry has

led to a downturn in whey

imports by China.

Australia dairy exports

decreased by 3%, or

2,000 MT, in March

compared to the same

period last year. This decline

was due to WMP, SMP, and

cheese, down a combined

8,200 MT. This was offset by

an increase in infant formula

and fluid milk products, up

6,000  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to March were up 5%, or

36,600 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

Infant formula, fluid milk

products, and whey powder

make up most of the current

growth in Australian exports.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

%

%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for March 2019

compared to March 2018

Change for March 2019

compared to March 2018

Change for March 2019

compared to March 2018

Change for February 2019

compared to February 2018

Change for the 12 months

to March 2019

Change for the 12 months

to March 2019

Change for the 12 months

to March 2019

Change for the 12 months

to February 2019

10327

513

5

5

To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL IMPORTS

IMPORTS INTO ASIA AND

CHINA SHOW STRONG

GROWTH. LATIN AMERICA

AND MIDDLE EAST &

AFRICA  DOWN

Latin America dairy

import volumes¹ decreased

1%, or 1,600 MT, in February

compared to the same

period last year. Declines

in SMP, infant formula and

whey powder of a combined

9,500 MT, were largely offset

by fluid milk products, WMP,

cheese and WPC.

Imports for the 12 months to

February 2019 were up 5%,

or 90,900 MT, compared

to the same period the

previous year. SMP, fluid

milk products, WMP, infant

formula and MPC were up a

combined 94,200 MT offset

by declines in whey powder,

other powders.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

increased 10%, or 37,500  MT,

in February compared to

the same period last year.

SMP, fluid milk products,

cheese and WMP were up

but offset by declines in

whey powder, ice cream and

other powders.

Imports for the 12 months

to February were up 7%, or

309,400 MT, compared to

the same period the previous

year. This growth continues

to be driven by fluid milk

products, WMP, SMP, lactose,

cultured products, cheese,

and infant formula up a

combined 295,200  MT.

The import market remains

in a solid growth phase.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 11%, or 39,300 MT

in February 2019 compared

to the same period last year.

Small growth in MPC was

offset by declines in most

other product, principally

cheese, SMP, infant formula

and butter down a combined

30,500  MT.

Imports for the 12 months

to February 2019 were

down 7%, or 306,700  MT,

compared to the same

period the previous year. The

reduction has been driven by

cheese, fluid milk products,

SMP, butter and other

powders down a combined

307,200  MT.

China dairy import

volumes increased 11%,

or 22,700 MT, in March

compared to the same

period last year. This was

driven by increases in WMP

and fluid milk products up

a combined 35,300 MT but

partially offset by whey

powder which was down

13,400  MT.

Imports for the 12 months

to March were up 8%, or

219,300 MT, compared to the

same period last year.

Strong demand out of China

continued with imports

across all key categories,

notably WMP, SMP, infant

formula and lactose, which

were up a combined

202,200  MT.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%

%

%%%

%%%

Change for February 2019

compared to February 2018

Change for March 2019

compared to March 2018

Change for February 2019

compared to February 2018

Change for February 2019

compared to February 2018

Change for the 12 months

to February 2019

Change for the 12 months

to March 2019

Change for the 12 months

to February 2019

Change for the 12 months

to February 2019

11101

778

11

5

To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%

%

%%%

%%%

Season to date

1 July to 30 April

Season to date

1 June to 30 April

Season to date

1 June to 30 April

Season to date

1 June to 30 April

Decrease for April 2019

compared to April 2018

Decrease for April 2019

compared to April 2018

Decrease for April 2019

compared to April 2018

Decrease for April 2019

compared to April 2018

315139

19311

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY

















5

OUR MARKETS

FONTERRA MILK COLLECTION 2018/19 SEASON

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

NEW ZEALAND MILK COLLECTION

Fonterra’s share of monthly

collection continues to reduce

due to adverse on‑farm and

weather conditions, increasing

cull cow rates, retirements

in key regions, cost of inputs

and milk collection losses in a

highly competitive market.

Dairy Australia continue to

forecast a milk production

decline of between 7% and 9%

for the season.

Northern regions continued to

be affected by the dry weather,

and although rainfall helped

improve pasture conditions to

some extent, farms began to

dry off for the season.

Collections in April were

57 million kgMS, 13% behind

the same month last season,

with season to date collection

reaching 862 million kgMS, 1%

ahead of last season.

Central South Island continued

its strong production profile

in April, however drier than

normal conditions had some

impact on volumes in the

lower South Island.

Collections in April were

52 million kgMS, 5% lower than

the same month last season,

with season to date collection

reaching 592 million kgMS, up

3% on last season.

Drier than average conditions

continued into April for some

regions, affecting volumes.

Collection for the season to

date reached 1,454 million

kgMS, up 1%. Strong spring

volumes are now being offset

by decreases for February,

March and April compared to

the same months last season.

Forecast Farmgate Milk

Price for the 2019/20 season

Forecast milk collection

for the 2019/20 season

per

KGMS

6.25-

7. 2 5

1, 5 2 0M

KGMS

The 2019/20 Forecast Farmgate

Milk Price range is $6.25‑$7.25

per kgMS. Collections are

estimated at 1,520 million

kgMS in the 2019/20 season.

Forecast Farmgate Milk Price

and Fonterra Milk Collection

Across New Zealand

NZD

The inclusion of off‑GDT

sales contributed 10 cents

per kgMS to the Milk

Price for the season to

30 April 2019.

%
%

%

%

%

%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year‑to‑date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

MAY MAR

JUL

OCT

DEC

MAR MAY JUL OCT DEC MAY




,

, 

,

.

.

. 

. 

. 

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

FONTERRA GLOBAL DAIRY TRADE RESULTS

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity prices

and New Zealand

dollar trend

The New Zealand dollar

weakened further in April as

inflation data increased the

likelihood of a reduction in

interest rates by the Reserve

Bank of New Zealand.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

21 May 2019:

The next trading event will be held on 4 June 2019. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

2.3

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

3,485

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

14.8

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 5,297/MT

3.4

BUTTER

USD 6,916/MT

4.6

RENNET CASEIN

USD 6,140/MT

1.2

AMF

USD 2,550/MT

0.4

SMP

USD 3,180/MT

2.1

WMP

USD 4,851/MT

15.0

CHEDDAR

14,785

MT

LATEST AUCTION

585,850

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

Fonterra and The
Coca‑Cola Company

launch dairy beverages

alliance across

southeast Asia

Fonterra and The Coca‑Cola

Company (Coca‑Cola) have

entered into a strategic

alliance that aims to capture

opportunities in the growing

dairy beverage category in

southeast Asia.

The partnership combines

Fonterra’s generations of

expertise in dairy nutrition

with Coca‑Cola’s in‑market

sales and distribution

capabilities and kicks off with

the launch of a new range

of dairy‑based products

in Vietnam.

The new products,

launched under Coca‑Cola’s

Nutriboost brand, Fonterra’s

trusted and nutritious dairy,

providing important nutrition

to kids, teens and adults

in a product range that

can be enjoyed at different

occasions throughout the

day. Nutriboost is already

a leading beverage brand

in Vietnam that offers

customers a delicious

combination of nutritious

milk and fruit juice in a

ready‑to‑drink product.

Judith Swales, Chief

Operating Officer of

Fonterra’s Global Consumer

and Foodservice business,

says the alliance aims to

grow demand and increase

share in the dairy beverage

category across the region.

“Both Fonterra and

Coca‑Cola are committed to

disrupting and accelerating

the growth of the dairy

ready‑to‑drink category in

southeast Asia, by exciting

consumers with innovative

new products that offer

tailored nutritional benefits,”

says Judith.

“Dairy has become one of

the fastest growing beverage

categories in southeast Asia.

Demand is being driven by

consumers’ increased focus

on health and wellness and

the category is expected to

grow on average at more

than five per cent each year

between 2016 and 2020.

Iain McLaughlin, President

of The Coca‑Cola Company’s

ASEAN business unit,

says the alliance with

Fonterra is in‑line with

Coca‑Cola’s well‑established

strategy to become a total

beverage company.

“We believe the value‑added

dairy beverage category

offers a significant

opportunity for growth in

the region and the expanded

Nutriboost range is the first

step in our combined efforts

with Fonterra to deliver

winning new products for

consumers,” said Iain.

Following the launch of

the Nutriboost kids and

adults ranges in Vietnam,

Coca‑Cola and Fonterra

will explore opportunities

to launch a range under

Fonterra’s Anchor brand as

well as new products in other

markets across southeast

Asia including Indonesia,

Thailand and Philippines.

7

OUR PERFORMANCE

FONTERRA
CHANGES

TANKER

SCHEDULE FOR

#1 FAN

In the Te Rapa district of

Hamilton, our tanker drivers

know that every evening

their biggest fan will be

waiting for them on a dairy

farm on Reid Road.

Fonterra milk tankers are

Andrew Oliver's favourite

thing in the world and local

tanker drivers have long

known that Andrew won't go

to bed until they've been on

the  farm.

But when it became

unmanageable for his

65‑year‑old parents, we knew

we had to step in and help.

Our Te Rapa tanker depot

changed their milk tanker

schedule in the entire district

so that Andrew would go to

bed on time.

Andrew Oliver is one

of about eight people

in the world living with

Fryns‑Aftimos syndrome

– he's the oldest known

to have it and the only

one in New Zealand with

the condition.

The extremely rare syndrome

is the result of a mutation

in one of his chromosomes

which means that, at 35 years

old, he has the mental age

of a 6‑year‑old and suffers

many other symptoms.

For the past 15 years he's had

a special relationship with

our tanker drivers.

Ken Oliver, his father, said

Andy discovered the tanker

when the farm went onto the

night shift for milk pick up.

"He learned what it

was, came out to see it

occasionally and once in

a while would talk to a

driver. But then with Andy,

the normal thing is with

something like this – it

would become a habit. And

so he had to be out to see

the tanker. That became part

of his nightly routine."

Andy's nightly routine

consists of a list of things he

has to tick off.

Every night he draws a

picture to give to the tanker

driver, he has to watch the

weather report on the 6pm

news, then he has dinner and

a bath.

But the last thing to tick off –

is the tanker.

Ken said that if the tanker

hadn't come, Andy wouldn't

go to bed. For him, waking

up at 5am to tend the farm, it

became a struggle.

"We simply didn't know

when the tanker was coming.

You might get 2am in the

morning or something

like that and he wouldn't

go to bed until the tanker

had come."

For over a decade, Andrew's

parents managed his tanker

visits until one day Ken says

he came to a breaking point.

"Deirdre had just been

diagnosed with having

had a minor stroke, I was

absolutely out on my feet

trying to keep the farm

going. Surviving on three or

four hours sleep and I'd just

run out. I'd hit the wall and

so I phoned the call centre

and actually started crying

on the phone, I was just

so shot.

"I just said look, my life has

just become impossible and

just explained what was

going on. I need sleep and I

can't get sleep until this boy's

in bed."

The person at the call centre

decided to help.

After hearing about Ken's

call, our depot decided to

change their entire milk

tanker schedule in the

Te Rapa district to make

sure Andy could get to bed

on time.

Ken is now guaranteed a

pick up anywhere between

6:30pm and 8pm.

Fonterra tanker driver

Kevin Healey said Andy

draws them a picture each

night and they put them up

on the wall at work.

"It's not something we

encounter every day, we

can tell you that... It's a

special relationship."

On top of Andy's rare

syndrome, he also has five

types of epilepsy.

So the Te Rapa district tanker

drivers have been briefed on

health and safety procedures

and what to do if Andy had a

seizure during a tanker visit.

"A lot of us guys that have

been here before, we know

what to expect and we have

an in cab screen which has

a warning along the bottom

to make sure drivers are

reminded to be careful

going down the track just in

case Andy's floating about,"

Kevin said.

"That's programmed into

the screen and would come

up every time that vehicle

comes into this farm, it

would come up before

we go."

These drivers mean a lot to

Andy, but Kevin says Andy

means a lot to them too.

The tanker drivers have

supplied Andy with a

uniform – a high‑vis Fonterra

shirt and a hat and have

also given him a model

tanker which is a part of his

treasured truck collection.

Ken, who has his PhD in

chemistry and has been a

dairy farmer for 40 years,

said the change in pick up

time has meant a lot to

the family.

"A big outfit like Fonterra

doesn't have to do that.

They simply could've ignored

the request but no, they

came through. And we're

very grateful."

Kevin said the 15‑minute

visit to the farm to drain its

milk vats every evening is a

special treat for the tanker

drivers on that shift.

"We like to come out here.

You realise that you're lucky,

how lucky you are that we're

able to do this. If we can

make Andy's day well, hey

that's the icing on the cake."

Article produced by

RNZ’s Indira Stewart and

Tim Collins, videographer.

ANDY ON HIS WAY TO MEET THE FONTERRA TANKER. PHOTO: RNZ

OUR CO-OP

8

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES













EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s















AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

JUL JUN APR MAR DEC JAN FEB SEP NOV OCT MAY AUG 

MT s

















AVERAGE

9


SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year‑on‑year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for New Zealand, EU and Australia to March; US to April.

NOTE: Data for EU to February; New Zealand, Australia and US to March.

NOTE: Data for Latin America, Asia, Middle East & Africa to February; China to March.

SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR

NOV DEC JAN

JUL AUG MAY

SEP FEB

OCT JUN 

,

,

,

 ,

,

,

,

,

, 

,

,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT

QUANTITY SOLD  MT

10


SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

APRIL

2019

APRIL


2018

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2018/19

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2017/18

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

109.1120.4(9.4%)1,454.31,434.21.4%

North Island56.765.3(13.3%)862.2857.20.6%

South Island52.455.1(4.8%)592.1577.02.6%

Fonterra Australia7.911. 4(30.7%)107.0131.8(18.8%)

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year‑to‑date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(21 M AY 2019)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2018)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

14,785585,850

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

(15.5%)12.9%

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

3,4853,069

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

(6.1%)(8.5%)

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

(2.3%)–

Fonterra GDT Results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

11
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

LME (Liquid Milk

Equivalent)

A standard measure of the

amount of milk (in litres)

allocated to each product

based on the amount of fat

and protein (“milk solids”) in

the product relative to the

amount of fat and protein in

a standardised raw milk.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non‑Reference Products

All dairy products, except

for Reference Products,

produced by the NZ

Ingredients business.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.


GLOSSARY

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time

Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.