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Investor Presentation

Investor Presentation15 October 2019CENUtilities

International roadshow
October 2019

Putting our energy where it matters

Disclaimer and important information
This presentation may contain projections or forward-looking statements regarding a variety of items.

Such forward-looking statements are based upon current expectations and involve risks and uncertainties.

Actual results may differ materially from those

stated in any forward-looking statement based

on a number of important factors and risks.

Although management may indicate and believe

that the assumptions underlying the forward-

looking statements are reasonable, any of the

assumptions could prove inaccurate or incorrect

and, therefore, there can be no assurance that

the results contemplated in the forward-looking

statements will be realised.

EBITDAF, underlying profit, free cash flow and

operating free cash flow are non-GAAP

(generally accepted accounting practice)

measures. Information regarding the

usefulness, calculation and reconciliation of

these measures is provided in the supporting

material.

Furthermore, while all reasonable care has been

taken in compiling this presentation, Contact

accepts no responsibility for any errors or

omissions.

This presentation does not constitute investment

advice.

Numbers in the presentation have not all been

rounded and might not appear to add.

All logos and brands are property of their

respective owners. All company, product and

service names used in this presentation are for

identification purposes only.

All references to $ are New Zealand dollars

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

2

Dennis Barnes / Chief Executive Officer
Dennis has been Chief Executive Officer of Contact since 2011.

Dennis has completed Contact’s $2bn investment programmein renewable energy, flexible

generation and companywide systems. He has provided industry leadership on topics as wide

ranging as wholesale electricity market structures and health and safety reform.

During 2015, Dennis successfully led Contact as its majority shareholder exited and Contact

diversified its shareholding base and listed on the ASX.

Prior to joining Contact, he was General Manager Energy Risk Management at Origin Energy

where he oversaw Origin's significant and expanding operations in wholesale markets. Prior to

Origin, Dennis held a number of positions operating in international energy markets; including

managerial roles at Scottish and English electricity companies. Dennis' career began as a

metallurgist with Alcan and he holds a BSc (Hons), GradDip(Marketing) and MBA.

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

3

Dorian joined Contact in December 2018 as
Contact’s Chief Financial Officer.

Dorian has 20 years of financial and operational experience in industrial

businesses. He is experienced in business transformations, having led

successful turnarounds of businesses in both the UK and South Africa,

and has successfully delivered a number of acquisitions, including ones in

the Australian and New Zealand energy sector.

He has governance experience having served on the Board of Afrox a

publicly listed company and the largest industrial gases business in Africa,

as well as being a previous Board member of Liquigas, a New Zealand

LPG infrastructure business.

Dorian Devers/ Chief Financial Officer

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

4

4
New Zealand electricity market6-11

Contact’s business and value drivers12-33

Why invest in Contact34-43

Appendix 44-61

–Market in action, FY19 results extracts

2

3

1

AGENDA

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

5

6
New Zealand

electricity market

“New Zealand serves as a model for effective energy markets and secure power system operation.”
International Energy Agency (IEA) New Zealand 2017 Review

Major

generators

State-owned national

transmission grid

operator

Distribution

businesses

Retailers

(50 brands)

Million

consumers

REGULATED MONOPOLIES

COMPETITIVE

COMPETITIVE

Spot

electricity

pool

NEW ZEALAND ELECTRICITY MARKET

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

7

Source: EMI
National electricity demand (TWh)

Annual consumption per household (kWh)

Source: MBIE electricity statistics

40.9

41.1

FY15FY16FY18

41.2

FY17

41.3

41.4

FY19

0.2%

7,263

7,187

7,165

7,068

7,102

FY19FY15FY17FY16FY18

-0.6%

Forestry/agriculture, food processing and

commercial have grown since the GFC.

This growth has been offset by ongoing

reductions in demand from the pulp and paper

sector as well as residential efficiency.

Agriculture

6%

Industrial

38%

Commercial

24%

Residential

32%

Electricity consumption breakdown

Source: MBIEelectricitystatistics

DEMAND

While demand is

at a similar level to

2008, there are

encouraging signs of

demand growth in

some key sectors

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

8

Hydro storage is crucial, but limited;
Maximum controlled storage of ~4 TWh spread across four key catchments,

~10% of annual demand of 41TWh.

CluthaWaitakiManapouriTaupo

Average annual generation of 3,900 GWh

Max storage of ~300 GWh

Summer inflows

Wet to dry range of 1,000 GWh

Average annual generation of 7,000 GWh

Max storage of~2,500 GWh

Shared between Genesis (Lake Tekapo) and

Meridian (all lakes downstream of Lake Tekapo)

Summer inflows

Wet to dry range of 3,000 GWh

Average annual generation of 4,800 GWh

Max storage of ~800 GWh

Highest inflow intra year volatility of all

catchments

Wet to dry range of 2,000 GWh

Average annual generation of 4,000 GWh

Max storage of ~500 GWh

Winter inflows

Wet to dry range of 1,300 GWh

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

Jan-

10

Jan-

15

Jan-

11

Jan-

16

Jan-

12

Jan-

13

Jan-

14

Jan-

17

Jan-

18

Jan-

19

South Island

North Island

2,677Average

National controlled storage (GWh)

Source: NZX hydro

SUPPLY FUNDAMENTALS

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

9

43
10

5

8

2

2

21

5

Minimum

hydro

Hydro

swing

FY19

generation

(including

losses)

Minimum

thermal

Co-

generation

GeothermalMaximum

thermal

Wind

-5

National annual supply (TWh)

Major

thermal

generators

Sources

of

flexibility

Contact:

gas and diesel

with15 year

(extendable)

contract for

gas storage

Genesis:

coal and gas

Nova/Todd

Energy:

gas

“Dry year”:

Genesis’scoal

stock pile

Daily andseasonal:

Gas storage

“Wet year”:

Gas storage

Winterpeaks/outages:

Diesel

Contingent/emergency

hydro storage

SUPPLY FUNDAMENTALS

Thermal generation is currently the most economic swing fuel to manage the seasonal supply and demand mismatch.

Flexible thermal

production is required

per annum of

seasonal renewables

firming required

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

10

The market quickly responds to changes in supply and demand by sending price signals.
Jan-12Jan-14Jan-18Jan-20

150

0

50

100

200

Jan-10

300

Jan-16

Long-term

average

spot price =

$80.16/MWh

Aluminium

Short-term external

factors that can

influence the market

Wholesale and futures electricity pricing ($/MWh)

Source: EMI wholesale pricing

Wholesale

electricity

prices

Long-term pricing is linked to the long-run marginal costs of new renewable projects

to meet demand plus costs associated with firming renewable intermittency

Long-dated futures have jumped +30% in last 12 months.

Average spot prices remain well above long-term average.

Short-dated futures (<12 months)

Long-dated futures (>12 months)

Monthly average spot price

WHOLESALE PRICING

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

11

12
Contact’s business

and value drivers

Wholesale business

CONTACT WHOLESALE SNAPSHOT
2 Hydro stations / 1 controlled storage lake

4 Thermal stations

15 year contract for gas storage

8.9TWh FY19 generation

Contact

is an owner and

operator of low-cost,

long-life renewable

generation assets and is

developing its consented

geothermal development

options.

5 Geothermal stations

84% Renewable generation

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

13

CONTACT WHOLESALE SNAPSHOT
We have maintained a dedicated, internationally-recognised, subsurface team to:

•Lower the cost of operations significantly –comfortably New Zealand’s

lowest cost geothermal operator.

•Investigate options to extend and improve generation at Wairakei

at the 2026 resource consent renewal.

•Provide geothermal consultancy services internationally.

•Operational experience on the world’s

second longest electricity producing

geothermal field (Wairakei, since 1958).

•Capability in construction management,

consenting and stakeholder engagement.

Contact’s geothermal operations are significant in a global

context with consents to expand production by ~67%

Most recent geothermal developments

Te Mihi (2014) 166MWTe Huka (2010) 28MWBioreactor (2012)

Tauhara(Pre-FID)

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

14

New Zealand is
in the early stages

of a decades-long

transformation from

reliance on fossil

fuels to renewable

electricity.

Climate change

Government policy

Quality, long-life renewable assets

Historically low cost of capital

MACRO-ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

15

The New Zealand regulatory framework is being
adapted to deliver on this societal imperative.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND REGULATION

Society is demanding action on climate change, with clear progress expected.

¹ A commitment made by the Government when New Zealand joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance.

² Review complete, findings announced and into implementation.

Coal

phase out

for electricity

generation

by 2030¹

Current

Tiwai

contract

ends

2030

Ban on

offshore

oil and gas

exploration

Transport

policies

Net zero

NZ carbon

emissions

by 2050

Productivity

Commission

review

Electricity

Pricing

Review²

Zero

Carbon

Bill

Freshwater

reform

Transmission

Pricing

Methodology

Climate

Change

Commission

Emission

Trading

Scheme

review

Potential electricity demand impactPotential renewable generation impactPotential wider electricity

sector impact

In progress

Announced

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

16

Sources: Productivity Commission's Low Emissions Economy Issues Paper, August 2017
and New Zealand's Action on Climate Change, September 2016

Meaningful reductions in carbon emissions

are possible with renewable electricity

displacing carbon intensive fuels.

CARBON REDUCTION OPPORTUNITY

With high

renewable

penetration,

electricity is the

solution to reducing

carbon emissions,

not the problem.

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

17

New Zealand electricity generation mix for FY19
Source: MBIE electricity statistics

New Zealand electricity supply mix FY07, 11, 15, 19

59%

5%

18%

5%

12%

2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FY11

22%

19%

5%

FY07

10%

4%

5%

15%

FY15

12%

FY19

83%

renewable

Coal

Wind

Hydro

Gas

GeothermalOther

QUALITY, LONG-LIFE RENEWABLE ASSETS

8%

13%

17%

18%

57%59%

56%

59%

1%1%

2%

2%

2%

4%

5%

5%

47%

37%

16%

Contact generation mix

for FY19

84%

renewable

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

18

Develop options to enable the
economic substitution of

Contact’s thermal generation

with renewables.

Thermal generation

Leveraging capability to expand

C&I products and services;

underpinned by our investment in

Simply Energy.

Partner with customers on mutually

beneficial decarbonisation

opportunities.

Customer solutions

Renewable development

Potential to develop Tauhara,

New Zealand’s best new

renewable generation option:

Prepare a range of development options

for a final investment decision (FID).

Deploy capital to enabling works

–including pre-FID drilling.

DELIVERING WHOLESALE STRATEGY

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

19

FY15
1.7

0.2

0.4

0.2

FY11

2.5

0.2

0.3

2.3

2.8

0.3

FY19

3.1

2.8

2.3

0.3

Consented

3.3

5.4

+67%

Tauhara

Wairakei

Ohaaki

Contact Geothermal

generation (TWh)

Tauhara –>250MW consented

•New Zealand’s pre-eminent scale renewable development

•Baseloadrenewable generation option

•Close proximity to the transmission grid

•$30m investment in pre-FID drilling (August-December 2019)

•FID early 2020

CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITY

Operational

gains

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

20

21
Contact’s business

and value drivers

Customer business

84%
13%

3%

Gas

Electricity

Broadband

24%

19%

17%

14%

12%

4%

9%

Genesis

Contact

Nova

Mercury

Meridian

Other

TrustPower

Products by customer connection

Retail electricity market share by customer connections

~480k

connections

Not including Rockgas

LPG customers serviced

LPG is sold through a partnership with Rockgas.Source: Electricity Authority.

CONTACT CUSTOMER SNAPSHOT

Contact’s Customer business is a service-obsessed retailer

of electricity, gas and broadband for the mass market.

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

22

MACRO-ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
Capable

regulator

Low barriers

to entry

Ease of

switching

Readily

available risk

management

The retail electricity market is highly competitive,

resulting in pressure on retail margins.

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

23

DELIVERING CUSTOMER STRATEGY
Simple and lean operating

model centred on the customer

experience, reinventing key customer

experiences and processes.

Capable employees identifying

and driving performance initiatives

with ownership and accountability.

Operating model

Brand

Brand and reputation

repositioned from a strong

operational retailer to a

smart customer solutions

provider.

Leverage advances in

technology to drive

efficiency with automated

customer experiences.

Technology

Contact’s Customer business has a solid foundation

on which to capture further scale efficiencies.

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

24

Reducing cost to serve
Customer operating costs ($m) (Includes 50% corporate allocation)

3

15

20

26

FY20

target

FY16FY18FY17FY19

>30

Building customer advocacy

Net promoter score (Promoters less detractors)

113

110

97

94

90

FY16FY17FY20

target

FY18FY19

CUSTOMER CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT

Targeting the lowest cost to serve and to be the most advocated for retailer.

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

25

26
Contact’s business

and value drivers

Value drivers

27
Ability to manage three key levers delivers performance.

SHORT-TERM VALUE DRIVERS

Value

drivers

3

1

2

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

27

National demand and supply fluctuation
Contact’s portfolio

Virtual

generator I

Huntly swaption

–100 MW

Whirinaki

155 MW

diesel peaker

Hawea

286 GWhstorage,

~500 GWhp.a.

throughput

Virtual

generator II

Demand Flex

platform –3 MW

and growing

AGS contract

+ gas peakers

0-200 MW

FUEL MIX AND RISK MANAGEMENT

Geothermal

Thermal

Hydro

FY19 SRMC¹

•World-leading geothermal expertise delivering

innovative cost reductions and improving the

cost of production.

62%

Daily demand (MWh)

Winter

Summer

Sources of portfolio flexibility –most diverse risk management tools within the industry

Annual Hydrology 2000 -2018

$107/MWh

$14/MWh

$18/MWh

•33% of increase year-on-year due to cost of

natural gas and carbon, and gas storage

arrangements

•83% renewables is hedge against rising costs.

•Gas storage allows for opportunistic gas

purchases.

•Strong operational efficiency focus.

•Seasonal variation smoothed with lake storage.

Contact advantage

Min 22.7 TWh| Mean 25.3 TWh| Max 27.7 TWh

Seasonal demand TWh

9.5

11.1

FY18 -Q3FY19 -Q1

+16.7%

SHORT

TERM

DRIVERS

1

¹ Short-run marginal cost: Fuel and carbon costs, direct operating

costs (inc.gas storage)

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

28

SepJunMarDec

Mass
market

3.8TWh

Length + short-term CfDs

1.4 TWh

C&I

3.0 TWh

9.6TWh

Long-term CfDs

1.4 TWh

FY19

Transfer of longer term C&I

volume to short term CFDs

demonstrates the risk

management processes

Tiwaifourth potlinecoming online

In line with customer numbers

FY18-19 delta (GWh)

+293

-274

+176

-152

High correlation to

wholesale spot pricing

Temporarily low linkage to

futures, as C&I not being

recontracteddue to risk

management; normally

strong futures linkage

Key long-term contract

(Tiwaisupport) is CPI

linked, other CfDsare

futures linked

Low short-term futures

linkage;stronger long-

term linkage expected.

Otahuhu, FY16-23

($/MWh)

Pricing linkage

Channel volumes

Channels to market

PRICING AND CHANNELS

SHORT

TERM

DRIVERS

2

136

139

101

60

112

78

103

114

Averaged spot

Futures forecast

FY19

($/MWh)

Channel

netbacks

82

Futures prices

97

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

29

64

130

Contact ‘Totex’ discipline $m
World-class geothermal technology introduced by Contact

Initiatives driving opexdown –FY16-19

•$6m reduction in ICT costs

•$7m reduction in cost of bad debt partly driven by introduction of products offering payment

flexibility

•Leaner organisationimplemented with FTE reducing by 66 (exc. Rockgas)

•Some savings reinvested in product development and digital transition

-Investment in digital journey's switching customers to cheaper channels

•$5m reduction in FY19 due to business disposals

•More opportunities going forwards –FY20 targets further $13m reduction

OPERATIONAL AND CAPITAL EFFICIENCY

SHORT

TERM

DRIVERS

3

263

255

223

212

128

102

78

60

FY16FY17FY18FY19

SIB capex

Direct opex

272

391

357

301

-11.4%CAGR

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

30

•Use of coil tubing units and

proprietary technology for live

well work overs & maintenance

•Geo40 –relationship to extract

silica from geothermal

reinjection systems

•Increasing direct heat customer

base

31
Contact sees a clear pathway

to long-term value creation.

LONG-TERM VALUE DRIVERS

1

2

Maintaining

demand-supply

balance key

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

31

3
6

4

7

3

Thermal

substitution

Current

demand

EV uptakeDairy sector

boiler conversion

Electrification

other

2050

40

57

0

Thermal plant substitution

Electric vehicle uptake

Electrification of process heat

•New renewable generation will continue to

displace base-load thermal generation.

•Rising carbon prices –cap of $25/tCO

2

to

be reviewed prior to the end of 2022.

•Uncertainty about the price and availability

of base-load gas will accelerate this

conversion.

•Gas-peaking to provide firming.

•Base-load thermal shifting to winter-only

role.

•There are currently 16,000 EVs and

there are 4m light vehicles in NZ.

•The Government’s new EV “feebate”

scheme starts in 2021.

•EV demand growth is likely to be off-

peak.

•Conservative forecast, fleet

proportion (2050): ~50 –75%

•EV fleet size (2050): 1.7m –2.7m

•Dairy conversion has already started by major participants.

•Contact is working with a customer on a 13MW boiler.

•Converting all South Island dairy factories from coal to electricity will increase peak demand

by 600MW; equivalent to NZAS’s demand.

•Multi-year, periodic capexand maintenance cycles with upcoming renewals.

•Food processing sector utilises cool storage and this creates a link to our “demand flex”

platform.

•Emissions Trading Scheme expected to incentivise electrification

LONG

TERM

DRIVERS

DECARBONISATION GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES

1

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

32

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20002005201020152020202520302035204020452050

NZ Historical DemandMeridian -midpoint

Transpower

MBIE -midpoint

Productivity Comm. -midpoint

TWh

Pre-GFC, avgdemand

growth ~2% p.a.

TWh

62
59

FY16

76

FY17FY18FY19

65

Carbon

Gas

Gas plant fuel cost ($/MWh)

Long-run marginal cost (LRMC) by technology ($/MWh)

2008-18 Contact generation mix

201820082016201020122014

+1.6TWh

Thermal

Renewables

2

3

4

5

1

1. AGS purchased | 2. TeHukacommissioned | 3. Peakerscommissioned | 4. TeMihicommissioned | 5. OtahuhuB closed

cumulative new project generation (TWh)

Competitive

base load

Geothermal

Space and

ability to

substitute gas

Increasing

cost of

thermal

generation

LONG

TERM

DRIVERS

INVESTMENT IN RENEWABLE ENERGY

2

1,6141,7421,812

1,421

Volume

(GWh)

33

0

25

100

50

125

75

024681012141618202224

Gas baseload

Wind

Hydro

Geothermal

Grid scale solar

Source: Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority, 2018

Tauhara(<$60/MWh)

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

34
Why invest

in Contact:

Our equity story

STRONG INVESTMENT CASE
Strong cash flow generation

and operational performance

Dividend policy

provides certainty

Shares offer value and

liquidity when benchmarked

Latent potential

with world-class

geothermal capability

ESG

CREDENTIALS

OPEN

ECONOMY

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

35

<IR>

INVEST IN NEW ZEALAND
Most applicable to an investment in Contact

A stable economy and political system with a reputation for

innovation make New Zealand an attractive place to invest

Modern

telecommunications

infrastructure

Safe, stable

and secure

business

environment

Ease of

doing

business

Comparatively

low-developed

country

business

costs

Simple

tax system

Strong

international

transport

links

Stable banking

sector with

Reserve Bank

supervision

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

36

85%
12%

2%

Wholesale

Customer

LPG (disposed Dec’18)

Segmental earnings (%) of FY19 EBITDAF

Excludes corporate costs of $26m

$544m

480

-60

-70

-65

Cash interest

285

Stay-in-business

(SIB) cash capex

EBITDAF

Cash tax

Key assumptions:

Hydro generation at

3,900 GWh (mean),

geothermal

generation at 3,300

GWh(average).

ASX electricity futures

and electricity retail

margins stable.

Excludes working

capital movements.

Expected medium-term Operating Free Cash Flow ($m)

FOCUS ON DELIVERING CASH

Delivery of strong, stable operating cash flows for distribution to shareholders.

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

37

The focus on continuous improvement, in a period of flat
demand, has seen operational performance metrics improve.

Maintaining financial discipline

Controllable OPEX and CAPEX costs ($m)

Rewarding shareholders

Distributions ($m)

391

357

301

272

260

FY18FY16FY17FY19FY20

target

1.9

3.3

3.2

5.2

1.3

FY19FY15FY16FY17FY18

Safe and engaged employees

Total recordable injury frequency rate

(Recordable injuries per million hours worked)

Employee engagement (%)

77%

FY16

56%

FY18FY17FY20

target

FY19

68%

75%

>82%

FOCUS ON OPERATIONAL IMPROVEMENT

7979

93

115115

107107

136

165165

100

186

FY16FY20

target

FY18FY17FY19

286

229

280280

Buyback

Final dividend

Interim dividend

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

38

* Operating Cash Flow less stay-in-business capex and net interest costs after adjusting for expected
medium-term stay-in-business capital expenditure, mean hydrology and appropriate Board consideration

of a sustainable financial structure including targeting the long-term credit rating of BBB from S&P.

Balance sheet capacity

Headroom to BBB ($m)

S&P net debt ($m)

Assuming EBITDAF of $480m

2.8x

Net debt to

EBITDAF

With a new long-term user contracted to access

AGS, S&P will no longer capitalise the

storage service payments from FY20.

DIVIDEND POLICY CERTAINTY

968

376

Ordinary

dividend of

of expected Operating

FreeCashFlow*

39 cps

At the closing share

price on 11 October

2019 of $8.96 per

share

Ordinary

dividend

Distribution

policy

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

39

=
Estimated total

capital cost

~11 to 12 cps

Operating free

cash flow yield

~$1bn

* Assumes debt

funded at current

rates with an

$75-85/MWh

wholesale price.

GEOTHERMAL POTENTIAL

Opportunity

Possible staging timing dependent on results of appraisal drilling, demand

growth and economic thermal substitution.

A world-class

geothermal

expertise with

consented

brownfield

development

potential.

in operating free cash flow from capital

deployment into an asset that we have

a 60 year track record of managing.

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

40

17.9
19.6

13.1

15.4

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

0.81.01.21.41.61.8

Genesis

Net debt ($bn) -30 June 2019

Market Capitalisation ($bn)

-

11 October 2019

Contact

Mercury

Meridian

2.9%

MeridianContact

4.4%

MercuryGenesis

4.1%

4.8%

1.9

2.2

1.7

3.4

MercuryContactGenesisMeridian

2.8x

EV to EBITDAF (x)Net debt to FY20 EBITDAF ratio

Ordinary dividend yield* and percentage

payout of FY19operating free cash flow

* FY20 multiples: indicative Contact EBITDAF of $480m, peers at guidance or consensus. Net debt as reported at 30 June 2019. Share prices as at 11 October 2019.

S&P limit for BBB ~2.8x (with own

thermal risk management). Lower for

renewable only generators.

Meridian has a capital management plan in place until

FY22 –distributed as a special dividend (not included)

OFFERS VALUE ON CURRENT EARNINGS

82%

89%

72%

106%

% of OpFCF

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

41

Daily trading –last 6 months ($m/day)
8.0

3.0

6.5

2.0

Contact

Meridian

Mercury

Genesis

DEEP AND LIQUID REGISTER

64%

13%

12%

New Zealand

North America

4%

Australia

Asia

United Kingdom

5%

Rest of Europe

3%

9%

10%

14%

14%

53%

0%

>5%

2 -3%

4 -5%

3 -4%

1 -2%

<1%

Sum of register by % of issued share capital holding

Holder by region (%)

36% of register is held outside of New ZealandNo holders above 5% of issued share capital

Holder by type (%)

38%

49%

13%

Retail

Institutional:

Active

Institutional:

Passive

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

42

0.0
0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.090

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

Oct-

18

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Apr-

19

Jun

-19

Aug

-19

Oct-

19

DELIVERING FOR SHAREHOLDERS

Dividends (cps)

Declared or target

1111

13

1616

1515

19

2323

32

FY16FY18FY20

target

26

FY17

26

FY19

3939

Interim dividend

Final dividend

12 month share prices

Share prices rebased to 100; bond yield absolute %

Announced

change to

dividend policy

Completed

the sale of

Rockgas LPG

ContactPeer group

NZX 50NZ 10yr bond yield (inverted, RHS)

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

43

44
Appendix

The market in action FY19

Source: EMI, Contact
National electricity demand (TWh)

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.2

10.2

10.2

10.0

10.1

10.1

25.9

25.9

25.9

26.1

26.1

FY18FY15FY19FY16FY17

41.1

41.2

40.9

41.3

41.4

0.2%

North Island

South Island (ex NZAS)

NZAS

Regional change (%)

FY19 vs FY18

The NZAS gradual re-commissioning of the 4th potline (50MW) from October 2018,

contributed to a 4.1% increase in NZAS electricity consumption (12.6% of national demand).

National electricity demand has remained at about 41TWh since 2008:


Forestry/agriculture, food processing and commercial have grown since the GFC.


This growth has been offset by ongoing reductions in demand from the pulp and paper

sector as well as residential efficiency.

Source: EMI, Contact

1%

1%

(1%)

(1%)

0%

1%

(2%)

0%

(1%)

1%

0%

4%

1%

FY19 DEMAND

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

45

South Island inflows normalized
Extreme November 2018 rainfall added ~700GWh to national

storage over a two week period after the traditional Spring inflows

failed to materialise

A large March event provided an additional ~700GWh, largely in the

SI catchments, including Contact’s Clutha catchment

North Island hydro storage was below mean during FY19 after

favourable conditions in the two years prior

National hydro storage against mean storage (TWh)

Mean storage 1926 –2019 (source: NZX hydro)

Average monthly storage vs mean by island (TWh)

Mean storage 1926 –2019 (source: NZX hydro)

3.0

2.5

1.5

2.0

3.5

4.0

Jan

2018

Jul

2017

Jul

2018

Jan

2019

Jun

2019

Mean

Actual

0.2

0.0

-0.6

-1.0

-0.8

-0.4

-0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Jan

2019

Jul

2018

Jul

2017

Jan

2018

Jun

2019

North Island

South Island

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.5

0.3

0.4

Jul

2017

Jan

2018

Jul

2018

Jan

2019

Jun

2019

Mean

Actual

Clutha hydro storage against mean storage (TWh)

Mean storage 2000 –2019 (source: NZX hydro)

FY19 SUPPLY

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

46

While volatile hydrology is a well-known feature
of electricity supply in New Zealand, normally

reliable gas production significantly constrained

generation from thermal assets.

The elevated spot price environment has led to

sharp increases in short-dated forwards (i.e. for

contracts maturing less than six months ahead).


Short dated market movements are usually

predominantly impacted by hydrology.

Long-dated forward prices ($97/MWh as at July

19) have increased by over $21/MWh (28%) in

the last year.


While gas availability continues to improve,

thermal costs including gas and carbon

input costs have risen.

Monthly wholesale spot electricity prices ($/MWh)

Generation weighted (source: Electricity Authority –Wholesale electricity prices)

Electricity forward price curves ($/MWh)

Generation weighted (source: Electricity Authority –Wholesale electricity prices)

Hydro storage volatility and thermal

fuel constraints increased spot prices

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

JanOctJulAugDecSepNovFebMarAprMayJun

Min/Max (FY13-19)

Mean

FY18

FY19

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jan

2018

Jul

2017

Jul

2018

Jan

2019

Jun

2019

Long-dated

Short-dated

Simple daily average spot price

FY19 WHOLESALE PRICES

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

47

48
Appendix

FY19 result extracts

132
112

110

166

170

20

56

10

14

24

Discontinued

operation

Profit on

continuing

operations

Profit on

continuing

operations

2

Items

excluded

from

underlying

FY18

underlying

profit

FY19 profitEBITDAFDiscontinued

operations

175

Items

excluded

from

underlying

4

FY19

underlying

profit

TaxNet interest

costs

Depreciation

and

amortisation

FY18 profit

345

+56

STATUTORY PROFIT ($m)

FY19 RESULTS

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

49

8
4

3

2

10

FY18

1

PriceCost

inflation

OpexVolumeFY19Gas

Gross

Margin

1

Broadband

Gross

Margin

-14

76

67

-9

26

FY19

2

24

FY18Staff

incentives

-2

WHOLESALE EBITDAF ($m)

CUSTOMER EBITDAF ($m)

CORPORATE / UNALLOCATED ($m)

Electricity gross margin

(-$9m)

Price recovery of

cost inflation

30

37

60

FY18FY19Generation

costs

(including

acquired

generation)

Total

contracted

revenue

Trading,

merchant

revenue

and losses

397

464

67

Electricity

Networks,

meters, levies

FY19 RESULTS

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

50

Electricity generated or acquired (GWh)
3,323

3,256

3,479

4,231

1,902

1,504

519

634

9,625

Hydro

Acquired

FY18FY19

Geothermal

Thermal

9,223

116

101

118

98

153

48

161

48

49

103

68

96

15

21

1

17

49

68

Renewable

Acquired

Generation

type

Generation

type

348

Gas and diesel

Cost

type

Thermal

Cost

type

Gas storage

Carbon costs

Electricity and

gas transmission

and levies

Other operating

costs

318318

348

+30

FY18

FY19

Electricity generated or acquired costs ($m)

Hydro generation was up 752 GWh on FY18 (+21%), which

was 8% above what would be expected in a mean year.

Geothermal volumes were down 67 GWh (-2%)


Renewable generation costs are predominantly fixed.

Geothermal carbon costs were up $1m.

Thermal generation costs were up $8m despite lower

generation volumes (-21%)


Gas and carbon costs up from $60/MWh in FY18 to

$74/MWh (-23%)


Fixed costs, led by the new gas storage contract (since

December 18) which was up by $12m (net of other

operating costs) on the prior year

Gas supply restrictions saw risk management costs up by

$19m with acquired generation volume up 22%


Acquired generation costs up from $94/MWh in FY18 to

$108/MWh (-23%).

FY19 RESULTS

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

51

314314
278

248

81

136

25

26

2

12

FY18

C&I netback

FY19

Other net income

Steam sales

CFD sales

Customer sales

700

737

37

3,941 GWh

$79.7 / MWh

Contracted revenue ($m)

3,376 GWh

$82.2 / MWh

1,266 GWh

$64.2/ MWh

-152 GWh

+$3.2 / MWh

-357 GWh

-$0.1 / MWh

+579 GWh

+$9.7 / MWh


Fixed price variable volume electricity sales to Customer and

C&I customers were 509 GWh lower than FY18 (-$42m), this

was partially offset by higher prices (+$12m) to the Customer

segment


Increased CFD sales to support NZAS, which was up by 104

GWh on FY18 contributed to higher long-term CFD electricity

sales in FY19 (+$13m). Contact prioritised short term CFD

sales (+403 GWh) which were mostly executed to capture

favourable short-term pricing (+$35m).


Higher pricing was achieved on both long-term CFDs (+$2m)

and short-term CFD sales to other generators (+$7m)


Steam revenue was up by $1m on FY18 on a reduction in

volumes but increased tariffs on rising carbon costs with

customers not taking the minimum volume under their take-or-

pay contracts


Other income was up by $10m, predominantly due to

improvements made to market trading processes following

FY18 market making losses of $2m

FY19 RESULTS

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

52

TRADING EBITDAF ($m)
63

138

-44

-64

-4

FY18

0

FY19

14

74

+60

708

974

-67

8,492

-8,492

FY18

8,569

-8,569

-2

FY19

641

973

($63.7 / MWh)

LONG / SHORT POSITION (GWh)

$88.9 / MWh

$142.7 / MWh

6.7%

-$5.2 / MWh

6.9%

-$7.4 / MWh

Spot sales and buy CFD settlement

Merchant generation

Spot purchases and sell CFD settlement

Pool purchases


266 GWh increase in merchant

sales volumes (+$38m). The price

received for this “long” generation

was up by $53.7/MWh (+$38m)


Strong generation volumes and

risk management saw limited price

exposure to unhedged spot market

purchases during higher wholesale

price periods


Contact managed price separation

well in the period, as a significant

increase in South Island

generation only increased relative

locational losses by 0.2%.

However, higher wholesale prices

saw absolute LWAP/GWAP up by

$20m

TRADING REVENUE

Merchant sales: short-term sales channel

available when the spot prices exceed the

opportunity cost on Contact generation

Pool purchase: short-term opportunistic

purchases from the spot electricity market

when better value than alternatives (adjusted

for volatility and volume)

LWAP / GWAP losses: locational price

differences between where electricity is

generated and purchased

($115.8 / MWh)

FY19 RESULTS

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

53

71
73

7

863

1

FY19

4

Gas

884

960

FY18

948

5

Other income

Broadband

Electricity

-12

3,648 GWh

$242.3 / MWh

806 GWh

$87.9 / MWh

Revenue ($m)EBITDAF ($m)

34

35

-82

-81

-18

-21

Electricity costs

4

Gas and

carbon costs

452

-314

FY18

Electricity revenue

less pass-through

costs

Other

operating

expenses

76

67

FY19

442

Other income

Gas

6

-314

-9

-115 GWh

+$2.1 / MWh

+55 GWh

-$2.9 / MWh

Revenue less

network costs

$124.2 / MWh

-$86.1 / MWh

+$1.1 / MWh

-$2.8 / MWh

Electricity gross margin down by $9m, tariff increases

(+$8m) only partially recovered pass-through costs


Electricity sales volume down 115 GWh (-3%)

due to lower customer numbers (-2%) and lower

usage per customer, offset by higher gas sales

to SME customers


Customer numbers up by 4,200 ICPs over 2H19

with new propositions in market. Broadband

offer attractive with 10,000 new customers

Energy costs higher with unit electricity prices up 3%

following a sustained period of higher wholesale

prices, carbon costs rising

Other operating expenses down by $1m despite

accelerated investment in digital, brand and new

products

FY19 RESULTS

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

54

34
35

35

29

19

FY17FY20(f)FY16FY18FY19

-13%

Electricity cost and pricing development ($/MWh)

CAGR

Average tariff

(12%)

+2%

(3%)

+2%

Contact electricity retailing | industry headwinds EBIT $m

% margin

3.8%3.9%

4.0%

2.2%

•Network costs +2% p.a.

•Energy costs +2% p.a.

•Operating costs -3% p.a.

Pricing + 1% p.a.

Intense competition means

unable to recover rising costs

Positioned to capture value

Contact has developed key

strengths with industry

leading cost to serve and a

flexible IT platform

Leaving us well

positioned to capture

scale efficiencies

Move to increased scale

and cross-industry

convergence

25

25

22

22

22

113

116

118

119

120

86

85

86

89

94

6

10

6

8

9

9

FY16

5

FY17FY18

242

6

FY19

6

6

FY20(f)

EBIT

Electricity costs

Networks,

meters

and levies

245

Depreciation

Operating costs

238

241

248

+1%

3.3%

4%

2,152

2,131

2,122

2,1162,112

Annual

$/customer

(1%)

Key assumptions for FY20(f):

»Tariff increases, change in usage per customer in line with history

»Corporate operating costs and depreciation 50% allocated to Customer

»Operating costs and depreciation allocated by number of customer connections

% CAGR

FY19 RESULTS

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

55

9
1

10

2

2

3

1

FY18Asset disposalsIncentives

5

-8

Net cost savingsInvestments

1

Digital savingsBroadbandFY19

212

223

Delivered $8m of underlying operating cost

improvement in line with FY19 target

$4m from ICT procurement savings


Configuration management database

optimised applications


Rightsizing of application support

leveraging internal maturity with systems

$3m leaner Wholesale operations

$3m reduction in the cost of bad debt

OTHER OPERATING COST MOVEMENT ($m)

CONTROLLABLE OPEX ($m)

263

247

243

223

212

FY18FY15FY19FY17FY16

-5%

Structural and performance

Accelerated investment

Learn and

Improve

Underlying

movement

Underlying movement

Target = $8m

FY19 RESULTS

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

56

Delivering smart customer solutions
$3m investment in our brand, new product development and

promotion. Key journeys digitised.

Additional $2m investment in workovers of geothermal

wells. R&D and capability continue to reduce costs


Delivered 30 GWh p.a. of additional geothermal generation valued at $3m

p.a. in FY19


Our internationally-recognised, subsurface team continues

to lower the cost of operations significantly –comfortably

New Zealand’s lowest cost geothermal operator


This improves the economics of geothermal development at Tauhara

Introduced new payment methods with PrePay and weekly/fortnightly billing to help customers

manage their bills

•Fewer customers in arrears, customers who would previously have been declined on

credit grounds can now be on-boarded

New products launched to deliver customer choice and innovative rewards including “free-bill”,

“promise plan”, “broadband bundle” and “basic plan” with no PPD

Increased digitisation improving NPS and lowering servicing and acquisition costs

•11% reduction in call centre volumes

•15% increase in web traffic and 7% increase in digital sales

Geothermal fuelling

0.81

0.50

0.25

0.20

0.13

0.15

FY19FY17FY14FY15FY16FY18

-28.6%

Average workovercosts per well ($m)

FY19 RESULTS

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

58

128
102

78

60

FY16FY18FY17FY19

»

EBITDAF up on strong Wholesale performance

»

Working capital changes $14m lower as NZX receivables were higher on strong

June merchant sales position

»

Capital expenditure on continuing operations of $58m in FY19

12 months

ended

30 June 2019

12 months

ended 30 June

2018

Comparison

against FY18

EBITDAF

$518m$481m


$37m

Workingcapital changes

($7m)$7m


($14m)

Taxpaid

($47m)($33m)


($14m)

Interest paid

($65m)($78m)


$13m

SIBCapital

($60m)($78m)


$18m

Non-cash sharebased compensation

$4m$3m


$1m

Significant items

($2m)($1m)


($1m)

Operating free cash flow

$341m$301m


$40m

Operating free cash flow per share

47.5 cps42.0 cps


5.5 cps

Proceeds from saleof assets/operations

$390m$6m


$384m

Free cash flow

$731m$307m


$424m

SIB CAPEX ($m)

FY19 RESULTS

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

59

99
390

425

44

Investment

in associates

Cash change

311

731

Dividends paid

3

6

7

4

8

OFCF

1

Net sales proceeds

301

3

Sources

201

Uses

Net debt repayment

251

Sources

731

341

311

Uses

Shares issued

Growth investment

-78

-65

-33

-47

-78

-60

7

-1

-2

341

481

3

FY18

518

-7

4

FY19

EBITDAF

Working capital changes

Cash interest

Cash tax

SIB cash capex

Share based payments

Significant items

301

OPERATING FREE

CASH FLOW –OFCF

($m)

SOURCES AND USES OF CASH ($m)

FY18

FY19

Gas sale

and repurchase

FY19 RESULTS

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

60

7
50

70

150

100

153

100

136

88

50

125

219

150

207

7

FY20

7

160

16

FY22FY21

7

FY26-

FY27

FY23

7

FY24FY25

92

14

4

FY28-

FY29

57

107

312

232

7


Face value of borrowings net of cash reduced by $464m to $943m following the completion of the asset sales and strong

operating cash flow which exceeded dividend payments. Net debt has reduced by $730m since the end of FY15.

Gearing reduced to 28.3% at 30 June 2019, down from 35.4% at 30 June 2018


$50m wholesale domestic bond maturity in May 2020, funded through existing facilities


Weighted average interest rate increased by 58bp on FY18 as more flexible, lower cost floating rate debt was repaid

with the asset sales proceeds


Contact continues to target a credit rating of BBB (net debt / EBITDAF <2.8x)

990

1,677

-47

1,401

1,626

1,416

27

FY15

-12

-4

FY14FY17

25

FY18

38

23

1,608

-5

FY16

41

1,504

-6

1,410

-3

25

FY19

1,698

1,539

1,445

968

6.06%

7.55%

FY17FY19FY16

5.53%

FY14FY15

5.25%

5.01%

FY18

5.59%

CLOSING NET DEBT ($m)

INTEREST RATE (%)

NET DEBT TO EBITDAF (x)

BORROWING MATURITIES ($m)

1,372

1,425

1,672

1,593

1,5061,105

Average net debt ($m)

Weighed average interest rate on average net debt

Face value of borrowings less cash

USPPDrawn bank facilities

Undrawn bank facilitiesDomesticNEXI

Includes S&P adjustments (in FY19 AGS was treated as a lease)

Lease obligationsBorrowingsCash on hand

3.1

3.1

3.0

2.7

2.5

2.4

3.4

3.2

3.2

3.1

2.3

2.1

FY16FY15FY17FY18FY19FY20

forecast

SmoothedSnapshot

Average tenor of 3.8 years as at 30 June 2019

FY19 RESULTS

Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019

61

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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