Investor Presentation
International roadshow
October 2019
Putting our energy where it matters
Disclaimer and important information
This presentation may contain projections or forward-looking statements regarding a variety of items.
Such forward-looking statements are based upon current expectations and involve risks and uncertainties.
Actual results may differ materially from those
stated in any forward-looking statement based
on a number of important factors and risks.
Although management may indicate and believe
that the assumptions underlying the forward-
looking statements are reasonable, any of the
assumptions could prove inaccurate or incorrect
and, therefore, there can be no assurance that
the results contemplated in the forward-looking
statements will be realised.
EBITDAF, underlying profit, free cash flow and
operating free cash flow are non-GAAP
(generally accepted accounting practice)
measures. Information regarding the
usefulness, calculation and reconciliation of
these measures is provided in the supporting
material.
Furthermore, while all reasonable care has been
taken in compiling this presentation, Contact
accepts no responsibility for any errors or
omissions.
This presentation does not constitute investment
advice.
Numbers in the presentation have not all been
rounded and might not appear to add.
All logos and brands are property of their
respective owners. All company, product and
service names used in this presentation are for
identification purposes only.
All references to $ are New Zealand dollars
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
2
Dennis Barnes / Chief Executive Officer
Dennis has been Chief Executive Officer of Contact since 2011.
Dennis has completed Contact’s $2bn investment programmein renewable energy, flexible
generation and companywide systems. He has provided industry leadership on topics as wide
ranging as wholesale electricity market structures and health and safety reform.
During 2015, Dennis successfully led Contact as its majority shareholder exited and Contact
diversified its shareholding base and listed on the ASX.
Prior to joining Contact, he was General Manager Energy Risk Management at Origin Energy
where he oversaw Origin's significant and expanding operations in wholesale markets. Prior to
Origin, Dennis held a number of positions operating in international energy markets; including
managerial roles at Scottish and English electricity companies. Dennis' career began as a
metallurgist with Alcan and he holds a BSc (Hons), GradDip(Marketing) and MBA.
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
3
Dorian joined Contact in December 2018 as
Contact’s Chief Financial Officer.
Dorian has 20 years of financial and operational experience in industrial
businesses. He is experienced in business transformations, having led
successful turnarounds of businesses in both the UK and South Africa,
and has successfully delivered a number of acquisitions, including ones in
the Australian and New Zealand energy sector.
He has governance experience having served on the Board of Afrox a
publicly listed company and the largest industrial gases business in Africa,
as well as being a previous Board member of Liquigas, a New Zealand
LPG infrastructure business.
Dorian Devers/ Chief Financial Officer
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
4
4
New Zealand electricity market6-11
Contact’s business and value drivers12-33
Why invest in Contact34-43
Appendix 44-61
–Market in action, FY19 results extracts
2
3
1
AGENDA
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
5
6
New Zealand
electricity market
“New Zealand serves as a model for effective energy markets and secure power system operation.”
International Energy Agency (IEA) New Zealand 2017 Review
Major
generators
State-owned national
transmission grid
operator
Distribution
businesses
Retailers
(50 brands)
Million
consumers
REGULATED MONOPOLIES
COMPETITIVE
COMPETITIVE
Spot
electricity
pool
NEW ZEALAND ELECTRICITY MARKET
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
7
Source: EMI
National electricity demand (TWh)
Annual consumption per household (kWh)
Source: MBIE electricity statistics
40.9
41.1
FY15FY16FY18
41.2
FY17
41.3
41.4
FY19
0.2%
7,263
7,187
7,165
7,068
7,102
FY19FY15FY17FY16FY18
-0.6%
Forestry/agriculture, food processing and
commercial have grown since the GFC.
This growth has been offset by ongoing
reductions in demand from the pulp and paper
sector as well as residential efficiency.
Agriculture
6%
Industrial
38%
Commercial
24%
Residential
32%
Electricity consumption breakdown
Source: MBIEelectricitystatistics
DEMAND
While demand is
at a similar level to
2008, there are
encouraging signs of
demand growth in
some key sectors
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
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Hydro storage is crucial, but limited;
Maximum controlled storage of ~4 TWh spread across four key catchments,
~10% of annual demand of 41TWh.
CluthaWaitakiManapouriTaupo
Average annual generation of 3,900 GWh
Max storage of ~300 GWh
Summer inflows
Wet to dry range of 1,000 GWh
Average annual generation of 7,000 GWh
Max storage of~2,500 GWh
Shared between Genesis (Lake Tekapo) and
Meridian (all lakes downstream of Lake Tekapo)
Summer inflows
Wet to dry range of 3,000 GWh
Average annual generation of 4,800 GWh
Max storage of ~800 GWh
Highest inflow intra year volatility of all
catchments
Wet to dry range of 2,000 GWh
Average annual generation of 4,000 GWh
Max storage of ~500 GWh
Winter inflows
Wet to dry range of 1,300 GWh
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Jan-
10
Jan-
15
Jan-
11
Jan-
16
Jan-
12
Jan-
13
Jan-
14
Jan-
17
Jan-
18
Jan-
19
South Island
North Island
2,677Average
National controlled storage (GWh)
Source: NZX hydro
SUPPLY FUNDAMENTALS
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
9
43
10
5
8
2
2
21
5
Minimum
hydro
Hydro
swing
FY19
generation
(including
losses)
Minimum
thermal
Co-
generation
GeothermalMaximum
thermal
Wind
-5
National annual supply (TWh)
Major
thermal
generators
Sources
of
flexibility
Contact:
gas and diesel
with15 year
(extendable)
contract for
gas storage
Genesis:
coal and gas
Nova/Todd
Energy:
gas
“Dry year”:
Genesis’scoal
stock pile
Daily andseasonal:
Gas storage
“Wet year”:
Gas storage
Winterpeaks/outages:
Diesel
Contingent/emergency
hydro storage
SUPPLY FUNDAMENTALS
Thermal generation is currently the most economic swing fuel to manage the seasonal supply and demand mismatch.
Flexible thermal
production is required
per annum of
seasonal renewables
firming required
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
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The market quickly responds to changes in supply and demand by sending price signals.
Jan-12Jan-14Jan-18Jan-20
150
0
50
100
200
Jan-10
300
Jan-16
Long-term
average
spot price =
$80.16/MWh
Aluminium
Short-term external
factors that can
influence the market
Wholesale and futures electricity pricing ($/MWh)
Source: EMI wholesale pricing
Wholesale
electricity
prices
Long-term pricing is linked to the long-run marginal costs of new renewable projects
to meet demand plus costs associated with firming renewable intermittency
Long-dated futures have jumped +30% in last 12 months.
Average spot prices remain well above long-term average.
Short-dated futures (<12 months)
Long-dated futures (>12 months)
Monthly average spot price
WHOLESALE PRICING
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
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12
Contact’s business
and value drivers
Wholesale business
CONTACT WHOLESALE SNAPSHOT
2 Hydro stations / 1 controlled storage lake
4 Thermal stations
15 year contract for gas storage
8.9TWh FY19 generation
Contact
is an owner and
operator of low-cost,
long-life renewable
generation assets and is
developing its consented
geothermal development
options.
5 Geothermal stations
84% Renewable generation
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
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CONTACT WHOLESALE SNAPSHOT
We have maintained a dedicated, internationally-recognised, subsurface team to:
•Lower the cost of operations significantly –comfortably New Zealand’s
lowest cost geothermal operator.
•Investigate options to extend and improve generation at Wairakei
at the 2026 resource consent renewal.
•Provide geothermal consultancy services internationally.
•Operational experience on the world’s
second longest electricity producing
geothermal field (Wairakei, since 1958).
•Capability in construction management,
consenting and stakeholder engagement.
Contact’s geothermal operations are significant in a global
context with consents to expand production by ~67%
Most recent geothermal developments
Te Mihi (2014) 166MWTe Huka (2010) 28MWBioreactor (2012)
Tauhara(Pre-FID)
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
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New Zealand is
in the early stages
of a decades-long
transformation from
reliance on fossil
fuels to renewable
electricity.
Climate change
Government policy
Quality, long-life renewable assets
Historically low cost of capital
MACRO-ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
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The New Zealand regulatory framework is being
adapted to deliver on this societal imperative.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND REGULATION
Society is demanding action on climate change, with clear progress expected.
¹ A commitment made by the Government when New Zealand joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance.
² Review complete, findings announced and into implementation.
Coal
phase out
for electricity
generation
by 2030¹
Current
Tiwai
contract
ends
2030
Ban on
offshore
oil and gas
exploration
Transport
policies
Net zero
NZ carbon
emissions
by 2050
Productivity
Commission
review
Electricity
Pricing
Review²
Zero
Carbon
Bill
Freshwater
reform
Transmission
Pricing
Methodology
Climate
Change
Commission
Emission
Trading
Scheme
review
Potential electricity demand impactPotential renewable generation impactPotential wider electricity
sector impact
In progress
Announced
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
16
Sources: Productivity Commission's Low Emissions Economy Issues Paper, August 2017
and New Zealand's Action on Climate Change, September 2016
Meaningful reductions in carbon emissions
are possible with renewable electricity
displacing carbon intensive fuels.
CARBON REDUCTION OPPORTUNITY
With high
renewable
penetration,
electricity is the
solution to reducing
carbon emissions,
not the problem.
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
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New Zealand electricity generation mix for FY19
Source: MBIE electricity statistics
New Zealand electricity supply mix FY07, 11, 15, 19
59%
5%
18%
5%
12%
2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FY11
22%
19%
5%
FY07
10%
4%
5%
15%
FY15
12%
FY19
83%
renewable
Coal
Wind
Hydro
Gas
GeothermalOther
QUALITY, LONG-LIFE RENEWABLE ASSETS
8%
13%
17%
18%
57%59%
56%
59%
1%1%
2%
2%
2%
4%
5%
5%
47%
37%
16%
Contact generation mix
for FY19
84%
renewable
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
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Develop options to enable the
economic substitution of
Contact’s thermal generation
with renewables.
Thermal generation
Leveraging capability to expand
C&I products and services;
underpinned by our investment in
Simply Energy.
Partner with customers on mutually
beneficial decarbonisation
opportunities.
Customer solutions
Renewable development
Potential to develop Tauhara,
New Zealand’s best new
renewable generation option:
Prepare a range of development options
for a final investment decision (FID).
Deploy capital to enabling works
–including pre-FID drilling.
DELIVERING WHOLESALE STRATEGY
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
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FY15
1.7
0.2
0.4
0.2
FY11
2.5
0.2
0.3
2.3
2.8
0.3
FY19
3.1
2.8
2.3
0.3
Consented
3.3
5.4
+67%
Tauhara
Wairakei
Ohaaki
Contact Geothermal
generation (TWh)
Tauhara –>250MW consented
•New Zealand’s pre-eminent scale renewable development
•Baseloadrenewable generation option
•Close proximity to the transmission grid
•$30m investment in pre-FID drilling (August-December 2019)
•FID early 2020
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITY
Operational
gains
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
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21
Contact’s business
and value drivers
Customer business
84%
13%
3%
Gas
Electricity
Broadband
24%
19%
17%
14%
12%
4%
9%
Genesis
Contact
Nova
Mercury
Meridian
Other
TrustPower
Products by customer connection
Retail electricity market share by customer connections
~480k
connections
Not including Rockgas
LPG customers serviced
LPG is sold through a partnership with Rockgas.Source: Electricity Authority.
CONTACT CUSTOMER SNAPSHOT
Contact’s Customer business is a service-obsessed retailer
of electricity, gas and broadband for the mass market.
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
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MACRO-ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
Capable
regulator
Low barriers
to entry
Ease of
switching
Readily
available risk
management
The retail electricity market is highly competitive,
resulting in pressure on retail margins.
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
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DELIVERING CUSTOMER STRATEGY
Simple and lean operating
model centred on the customer
experience, reinventing key customer
experiences and processes.
Capable employees identifying
and driving performance initiatives
with ownership and accountability.
Operating model
Brand
Brand and reputation
repositioned from a strong
operational retailer to a
smart customer solutions
provider.
Leverage advances in
technology to drive
efficiency with automated
customer experiences.
Technology
Contact’s Customer business has a solid foundation
on which to capture further scale efficiencies.
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
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Reducing cost to serve
Customer operating costs ($m) (Includes 50% corporate allocation)
3
15
20
26
FY20
target
FY16FY18FY17FY19
>30
Building customer advocacy
Net promoter score (Promoters less detractors)
113
110
97
94
90
FY16FY17FY20
target
FY18FY19
CUSTOMER CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT
Targeting the lowest cost to serve and to be the most advocated for retailer.
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
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26
Contact’s business
and value drivers
Value drivers
27
Ability to manage three key levers delivers performance.
SHORT-TERM VALUE DRIVERS
Value
drivers
3
1
2
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
27
National demand and supply fluctuation
Contact’s portfolio
Virtual
generator I
Huntly swaption
–100 MW
Whirinaki
155 MW
diesel peaker
Hawea
286 GWhstorage,
~500 GWhp.a.
throughput
Virtual
generator II
Demand Flex
platform –3 MW
and growing
AGS contract
+ gas peakers
0-200 MW
FUEL MIX AND RISK MANAGEMENT
Geothermal
Thermal
Hydro
FY19 SRMC¹
•World-leading geothermal expertise delivering
innovative cost reductions and improving the
cost of production.
62%
Daily demand (MWh)
Winter
Summer
Sources of portfolio flexibility –most diverse risk management tools within the industry
Annual Hydrology 2000 -2018
$107/MWh
$14/MWh
$18/MWh
•33% of increase year-on-year due to cost of
natural gas and carbon, and gas storage
arrangements
•83% renewables is hedge against rising costs.
•Gas storage allows for opportunistic gas
purchases.
•Strong operational efficiency focus.
•Seasonal variation smoothed with lake storage.
Contact advantage
Min 22.7 TWh| Mean 25.3 TWh| Max 27.7 TWh
Seasonal demand TWh
9.5
11.1
FY18 -Q3FY19 -Q1
+16.7%
SHORT
TERM
DRIVERS
1
¹ Short-run marginal cost: Fuel and carbon costs, direct operating
costs (inc.gas storage)
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
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SepJunMarDec
Mass
market
3.8TWh
Length + short-term CfDs
1.4 TWh
C&I
3.0 TWh
9.6TWh
Long-term CfDs
1.4 TWh
FY19
Transfer of longer term C&I
volume to short term CFDs
demonstrates the risk
management processes
Tiwaifourth potlinecoming online
In line with customer numbers
FY18-19 delta (GWh)
+293
-274
+176
-152
High correlation to
wholesale spot pricing
Temporarily low linkage to
futures, as C&I not being
recontracteddue to risk
management; normally
strong futures linkage
Key long-term contract
(Tiwaisupport) is CPI
linked, other CfDsare
futures linked
Low short-term futures
linkage;stronger long-
term linkage expected.
Otahuhu, FY16-23
($/MWh)
Pricing linkage
Channel volumes
Channels to market
PRICING AND CHANNELS
SHORT
TERM
DRIVERS
2
136
139
101
60
112
78
103
114
Averaged spot
Futures forecast
FY19
($/MWh)
Channel
netbacks
82
Futures prices
97
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
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64
130
Contact ‘Totex’ discipline $m
World-class geothermal technology introduced by Contact
Initiatives driving opexdown –FY16-19
•$6m reduction in ICT costs
•$7m reduction in cost of bad debt partly driven by introduction of products offering payment
flexibility
•Leaner organisationimplemented with FTE reducing by 66 (exc. Rockgas)
•Some savings reinvested in product development and digital transition
-Investment in digital journey's switching customers to cheaper channels
•$5m reduction in FY19 due to business disposals
•More opportunities going forwards –FY20 targets further $13m reduction
OPERATIONAL AND CAPITAL EFFICIENCY
SHORT
TERM
DRIVERS
3
263
255
223
212
128
102
78
60
FY16FY17FY18FY19
SIB capex
Direct opex
272
391
357
301
-11.4%CAGR
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
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•Use of coil tubing units and
proprietary technology for live
well work overs & maintenance
•Geo40 –relationship to extract
silica from geothermal
reinjection systems
•Increasing direct heat customer
base
31
Contact sees a clear pathway
to long-term value creation.
LONG-TERM VALUE DRIVERS
1
2
Maintaining
demand-supply
balance key
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
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3
6
4
7
3
Thermal
substitution
Current
demand
EV uptakeDairy sector
boiler conversion
Electrification
other
2050
40
57
0
Thermal plant substitution
Electric vehicle uptake
Electrification of process heat
•New renewable generation will continue to
displace base-load thermal generation.
•Rising carbon prices –cap of $25/tCO
2
to
be reviewed prior to the end of 2022.
•Uncertainty about the price and availability
of base-load gas will accelerate this
conversion.
•Gas-peaking to provide firming.
•Base-load thermal shifting to winter-only
role.
•There are currently 16,000 EVs and
there are 4m light vehicles in NZ.
•The Government’s new EV “feebate”
scheme starts in 2021.
•EV demand growth is likely to be off-
peak.
•Conservative forecast, fleet
proportion (2050): ~50 –75%
•EV fleet size (2050): 1.7m –2.7m
•Dairy conversion has already started by major participants.
•Contact is working with a customer on a 13MW boiler.
•Converting all South Island dairy factories from coal to electricity will increase peak demand
by 600MW; equivalent to NZAS’s demand.
•Multi-year, periodic capexand maintenance cycles with upcoming renewals.
•Food processing sector utilises cool storage and this creates a link to our “demand flex”
platform.
•Emissions Trading Scheme expected to incentivise electrification
LONG
TERM
DRIVERS
DECARBONISATION GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
1
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
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30
40
50
60
70
80
90
20002005201020152020202520302035204020452050
NZ Historical DemandMeridian -midpoint
Transpower
MBIE -midpoint
Productivity Comm. -midpoint
TWh
Pre-GFC, avgdemand
growth ~2% p.a.
TWh
62
59
FY16
76
FY17FY18FY19
65
Carbon
Gas
Gas plant fuel cost ($/MWh)
Long-run marginal cost (LRMC) by technology ($/MWh)
2008-18 Contact generation mix
201820082016201020122014
+1.6TWh
Thermal
Renewables
2
3
4
5
1
1. AGS purchased | 2. TeHukacommissioned | 3. Peakerscommissioned | 4. TeMihicommissioned | 5. OtahuhuB closed
cumulative new project generation (TWh)
Competitive
base load
Geothermal
Space and
ability to
substitute gas
Increasing
cost of
thermal
generation
LONG
TERM
DRIVERS
INVESTMENT IN RENEWABLE ENERGY
2
1,6141,7421,812
1,421
Volume
(GWh)
33
0
25
100
50
125
75
024681012141618202224
Gas baseload
Wind
Hydro
Geothermal
Grid scale solar
Source: Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority, 2018
Tauhara(<$60/MWh)
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
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Why invest
in Contact:
Our equity story
STRONG INVESTMENT CASE
Strong cash flow generation
and operational performance
Dividend policy
provides certainty
Shares offer value and
liquidity when benchmarked
Latent potential
with world-class
geothermal capability
ESG
CREDENTIALS
OPEN
ECONOMY
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
35
<IR>
INVEST IN NEW ZEALAND
Most applicable to an investment in Contact
A stable economy and political system with a reputation for
innovation make New Zealand an attractive place to invest
Modern
telecommunications
infrastructure
Safe, stable
and secure
business
environment
Ease of
doing
business
Comparatively
low-developed
country
business
costs
Simple
tax system
Strong
international
transport
links
Stable banking
sector with
Reserve Bank
supervision
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
36
85%
12%
2%
Wholesale
Customer
LPG (disposed Dec’18)
Segmental earnings (%) of FY19 EBITDAF
Excludes corporate costs of $26m
$544m
480
-60
-70
-65
Cash interest
285
Stay-in-business
(SIB) cash capex
EBITDAF
Cash tax
Key assumptions:
Hydro generation at
3,900 GWh (mean),
geothermal
generation at 3,300
GWh(average).
ASX electricity futures
and electricity retail
margins stable.
Excludes working
capital movements.
Expected medium-term Operating Free Cash Flow ($m)
FOCUS ON DELIVERING CASH
Delivery of strong, stable operating cash flows for distribution to shareholders.
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
37
The focus on continuous improvement, in a period of flat
demand, has seen operational performance metrics improve.
Maintaining financial discipline
Controllable OPEX and CAPEX costs ($m)
Rewarding shareholders
Distributions ($m)
391
357
301
272
260
FY18FY16FY17FY19FY20
target
1.9
3.3
3.2
5.2
1.3
FY19FY15FY16FY17FY18
Safe and engaged employees
Total recordable injury frequency rate
(Recordable injuries per million hours worked)
Employee engagement (%)
77%
FY16
56%
FY18FY17FY20
target
FY19
68%
75%
>82%
FOCUS ON OPERATIONAL IMPROVEMENT
7979
93
115115
107107
136
165165
100
186
FY16FY20
target
FY18FY17FY19
286
229
280280
Buyback
Final dividend
Interim dividend
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
38
* Operating Cash Flow less stay-in-business capex and net interest costs after adjusting for expected
medium-term stay-in-business capital expenditure, mean hydrology and appropriate Board consideration
of a sustainable financial structure including targeting the long-term credit rating of BBB from S&P.
Balance sheet capacity
Headroom to BBB ($m)
S&P net debt ($m)
Assuming EBITDAF of $480m
2.8x
Net debt to
EBITDAF
With a new long-term user contracted to access
AGS, S&P will no longer capitalise the
storage service payments from FY20.
DIVIDEND POLICY CERTAINTY
968
376
Ordinary
dividend of
of expected Operating
FreeCashFlow*
39 cps
At the closing share
price on 11 October
2019 of $8.96 per
share
Ordinary
dividend
Distribution
policy
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
39
=
Estimated total
capital cost
~11 to 12 cps
Operating free
cash flow yield
~$1bn
* Assumes debt
funded at current
rates with an
$75-85/MWh
wholesale price.
GEOTHERMAL POTENTIAL
Opportunity
Possible staging timing dependent on results of appraisal drilling, demand
growth and economic thermal substitution.
A world-class
geothermal
expertise with
consented
brownfield
development
potential.
in operating free cash flow from capital
deployment into an asset that we have
a 60 year track record of managing.
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
40
17.9
19.6
13.1
15.4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
0.81.01.21.41.61.8
Genesis
Net debt ($bn) -30 June 2019
Market Capitalisation ($bn)
-
11 October 2019
Contact
Mercury
Meridian
2.9%
MeridianContact
4.4%
MercuryGenesis
4.1%
4.8%
1.9
2.2
1.7
3.4
MercuryContactGenesisMeridian
2.8x
EV to EBITDAF (x)Net debt to FY20 EBITDAF ratio
Ordinary dividend yield* and percentage
payout of FY19operating free cash flow
* FY20 multiples: indicative Contact EBITDAF of $480m, peers at guidance or consensus. Net debt as reported at 30 June 2019. Share prices as at 11 October 2019.
S&P limit for BBB ~2.8x (with own
thermal risk management). Lower for
renewable only generators.
Meridian has a capital management plan in place until
FY22 –distributed as a special dividend (not included)
OFFERS VALUE ON CURRENT EARNINGS
82%
89%
72%
106%
% of OpFCF
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
41
Daily trading –last 6 months ($m/day)
8.0
3.0
6.5
2.0
Contact
Meridian
Mercury
Genesis
DEEP AND LIQUID REGISTER
64%
13%
12%
New Zealand
North America
4%
Australia
Asia
United Kingdom
5%
Rest of Europe
3%
9%
10%
14%
14%
53%
0%
>5%
2 -3%
4 -5%
3 -4%
1 -2%
<1%
Sum of register by % of issued share capital holding
Holder by region (%)
36% of register is held outside of New ZealandNo holders above 5% of issued share capital
Holder by type (%)
38%
49%
13%
Retail
Institutional:
Active
Institutional:
Passive
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
42
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.090
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Oct-
18
Dec
-18
Feb
-19
Apr-
19
Jun
-19
Aug
-19
Oct-
19
DELIVERING FOR SHAREHOLDERS
Dividends (cps)
Declared or target
1111
13
1616
1515
19
2323
32
FY16FY18FY20
target
26
FY17
26
FY19
3939
Interim dividend
Final dividend
12 month share prices
Share prices rebased to 100; bond yield absolute %
Announced
change to
dividend policy
Completed
the sale of
Rockgas LPG
ContactPeer group
NZX 50NZ 10yr bond yield (inverted, RHS)
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
43
44
Appendix
The market in action FY19
Source: EMI, Contact
National electricity demand (TWh)
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.2
10.2
10.2
10.0
10.1
10.1
25.9
25.9
25.9
26.1
26.1
FY18FY15FY19FY16FY17
41.1
41.2
40.9
41.3
41.4
0.2%
North Island
South Island (ex NZAS)
NZAS
Regional change (%)
FY19 vs FY18
The NZAS gradual re-commissioning of the 4th potline (50MW) from October 2018,
contributed to a 4.1% increase in NZAS electricity consumption (12.6% of national demand).
National electricity demand has remained at about 41TWh since 2008:
•
Forestry/agriculture, food processing and commercial have grown since the GFC.
•
This growth has been offset by ongoing reductions in demand from the pulp and paper
sector as well as residential efficiency.
Source: EMI, Contact
1%
1%
(1%)
(1%)
0%
1%
(2%)
0%
(1%)
1%
0%
4%
1%
FY19 DEMAND
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
45
South Island inflows normalized
Extreme November 2018 rainfall added ~700GWh to national
storage over a two week period after the traditional Spring inflows
failed to materialise
A large March event provided an additional ~700GWh, largely in the
SI catchments, including Contact’s Clutha catchment
North Island hydro storage was below mean during FY19 after
favourable conditions in the two years prior
National hydro storage against mean storage (TWh)
Mean storage 1926 –2019 (source: NZX hydro)
Average monthly storage vs mean by island (TWh)
Mean storage 1926 –2019 (source: NZX hydro)
3.0
2.5
1.5
2.0
3.5
4.0
Jan
2018
Jul
2017
Jul
2018
Jan
2019
Jun
2019
Mean
Actual
0.2
0.0
-0.6
-1.0
-0.8
-0.4
-0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Jan
2019
Jul
2018
Jul
2017
Jan
2018
Jun
2019
North Island
South Island
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.5
0.3
0.4
Jul
2017
Jan
2018
Jul
2018
Jan
2019
Jun
2019
Mean
Actual
Clutha hydro storage against mean storage (TWh)
Mean storage 2000 –2019 (source: NZX hydro)
FY19 SUPPLY
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
46
While volatile hydrology is a well-known feature
of electricity supply in New Zealand, normally
reliable gas production significantly constrained
generation from thermal assets.
The elevated spot price environment has led to
sharp increases in short-dated forwards (i.e. for
contracts maturing less than six months ahead).
•
Short dated market movements are usually
predominantly impacted by hydrology.
Long-dated forward prices ($97/MWh as at July
19) have increased by over $21/MWh (28%) in
the last year.
•
While gas availability continues to improve,
thermal costs including gas and carbon
input costs have risen.
Monthly wholesale spot electricity prices ($/MWh)
Generation weighted (source: Electricity Authority –Wholesale electricity prices)
Electricity forward price curves ($/MWh)
Generation weighted (source: Electricity Authority –Wholesale electricity prices)
Hydro storage volatility and thermal
fuel constraints increased spot prices
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
JanOctJulAugDecSepNovFebMarAprMayJun
Min/Max (FY13-19)
Mean
FY18
FY19
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jan
2018
Jul
2017
Jul
2018
Jan
2019
Jun
2019
Long-dated
Short-dated
Simple daily average spot price
FY19 WHOLESALE PRICES
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
47
48
Appendix
FY19 result extracts
132
112
110
166
170
20
56
10
14
24
Discontinued
operation
Profit on
continuing
operations
Profit on
continuing
operations
2
Items
excluded
from
underlying
FY18
underlying
profit
FY19 profitEBITDAFDiscontinued
operations
175
Items
excluded
from
underlying
4
FY19
underlying
profit
TaxNet interest
costs
Depreciation
and
amortisation
FY18 profit
345
+56
STATUTORY PROFIT ($m)
FY19 RESULTS
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
49
8
4
3
2
10
FY18
1
PriceCost
inflation
OpexVolumeFY19Gas
Gross
Margin
1
Broadband
Gross
Margin
-14
76
67
-9
26
FY19
2
24
FY18Staff
incentives
-2
WHOLESALE EBITDAF ($m)
CUSTOMER EBITDAF ($m)
CORPORATE / UNALLOCATED ($m)
Electricity gross margin
(-$9m)
Price recovery of
cost inflation
30
37
60
FY18FY19Generation
costs
(including
acquired
generation)
Total
contracted
revenue
Trading,
merchant
revenue
and losses
397
464
67
Electricity
Networks,
meters, levies
FY19 RESULTS
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
50
Electricity generated or acquired (GWh)
3,323
3,256
3,479
4,231
1,902
1,504
519
634
9,625
Hydro
Acquired
FY18FY19
Geothermal
Thermal
9,223
116
101
118
98
153
48
161
48
49
103
68
96
15
21
1
17
49
68
Renewable
Acquired
Generation
type
Generation
type
348
Gas and diesel
Cost
type
Thermal
Cost
type
Gas storage
Carbon costs
Electricity and
gas transmission
and levies
Other operating
costs
318318
348
+30
FY18
FY19
Electricity generated or acquired costs ($m)
Hydro generation was up 752 GWh on FY18 (+21%), which
was 8% above what would be expected in a mean year.
Geothermal volumes were down 67 GWh (-2%)
•
Renewable generation costs are predominantly fixed.
Geothermal carbon costs were up $1m.
Thermal generation costs were up $8m despite lower
generation volumes (-21%)
•
Gas and carbon costs up from $60/MWh in FY18 to
$74/MWh (-23%)
•
Fixed costs, led by the new gas storage contract (since
December 18) which was up by $12m (net of other
operating costs) on the prior year
Gas supply restrictions saw risk management costs up by
$19m with acquired generation volume up 22%
•
Acquired generation costs up from $94/MWh in FY18 to
$108/MWh (-23%).
FY19 RESULTS
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
51
314314
278
248
81
136
25
26
2
12
FY18
C&I netback
FY19
Other net income
Steam sales
CFD sales
Customer sales
700
737
37
3,941 GWh
$79.7 / MWh
Contracted revenue ($m)
3,376 GWh
$82.2 / MWh
1,266 GWh
$64.2/ MWh
-152 GWh
+$3.2 / MWh
-357 GWh
-$0.1 / MWh
+579 GWh
+$9.7 / MWh
•
Fixed price variable volume electricity sales to Customer and
C&I customers were 509 GWh lower than FY18 (-$42m), this
was partially offset by higher prices (+$12m) to the Customer
segment
•
Increased CFD sales to support NZAS, which was up by 104
GWh on FY18 contributed to higher long-term CFD electricity
sales in FY19 (+$13m). Contact prioritised short term CFD
sales (+403 GWh) which were mostly executed to capture
favourable short-term pricing (+$35m).
•
Higher pricing was achieved on both long-term CFDs (+$2m)
and short-term CFD sales to other generators (+$7m)
•
Steam revenue was up by $1m on FY18 on a reduction in
volumes but increased tariffs on rising carbon costs with
customers not taking the minimum volume under their take-or-
pay contracts
•
Other income was up by $10m, predominantly due to
improvements made to market trading processes following
FY18 market making losses of $2m
FY19 RESULTS
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
52
TRADING EBITDAF ($m)
63
138
-44
-64
-4
FY18
0
FY19
14
74
+60
708
974
-67
8,492
-8,492
FY18
8,569
-8,569
-2
FY19
641
973
($63.7 / MWh)
LONG / SHORT POSITION (GWh)
$88.9 / MWh
$142.7 / MWh
6.7%
-$5.2 / MWh
6.9%
-$7.4 / MWh
Spot sales and buy CFD settlement
Merchant generation
Spot purchases and sell CFD settlement
Pool purchases
•
266 GWh increase in merchant
sales volumes (+$38m). The price
received for this “long” generation
was up by $53.7/MWh (+$38m)
•
Strong generation volumes and
risk management saw limited price
exposure to unhedged spot market
purchases during higher wholesale
price periods
•
Contact managed price separation
well in the period, as a significant
increase in South Island
generation only increased relative
locational losses by 0.2%.
However, higher wholesale prices
saw absolute LWAP/GWAP up by
$20m
TRADING REVENUE
Merchant sales: short-term sales channel
available when the spot prices exceed the
opportunity cost on Contact generation
Pool purchase: short-term opportunistic
purchases from the spot electricity market
when better value than alternatives (adjusted
for volatility and volume)
LWAP / GWAP losses: locational price
differences between where electricity is
generated and purchased
($115.8 / MWh)
FY19 RESULTS
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
53
71
73
7
863
1
FY19
4
Gas
884
960
FY18
948
5
Other income
Broadband
Electricity
-12
3,648 GWh
$242.3 / MWh
806 GWh
$87.9 / MWh
Revenue ($m)EBITDAF ($m)
34
35
-82
-81
-18
-21
Electricity costs
4
Gas and
carbon costs
452
-314
FY18
Electricity revenue
less pass-through
costs
Other
operating
expenses
76
67
FY19
442
Other income
Gas
6
-314
-9
-115 GWh
+$2.1 / MWh
+55 GWh
-$2.9 / MWh
Revenue less
network costs
$124.2 / MWh
-$86.1 / MWh
+$1.1 / MWh
-$2.8 / MWh
Electricity gross margin down by $9m, tariff increases
(+$8m) only partially recovered pass-through costs
•
Electricity sales volume down 115 GWh (-3%)
due to lower customer numbers (-2%) and lower
usage per customer, offset by higher gas sales
to SME customers
•
Customer numbers up by 4,200 ICPs over 2H19
with new propositions in market. Broadband
offer attractive with 10,000 new customers
Energy costs higher with unit electricity prices up 3%
following a sustained period of higher wholesale
prices, carbon costs rising
Other operating expenses down by $1m despite
accelerated investment in digital, brand and new
products
FY19 RESULTS
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
54
34
35
35
29
19
FY17FY20(f)FY16FY18FY19
-13%
Electricity cost and pricing development ($/MWh)
CAGR
Average tariff
(12%)
+2%
(3%)
+2%
Contact electricity retailing | industry headwinds EBIT $m
% margin
3.8%3.9%
4.0%
2.2%
•Network costs +2% p.a.
•Energy costs +2% p.a.
•Operating costs -3% p.a.
Pricing + 1% p.a.
Intense competition means
unable to recover rising costs
Positioned to capture value
Contact has developed key
strengths with industry
leading cost to serve and a
flexible IT platform
Leaving us well
positioned to capture
scale efficiencies
Move to increased scale
and cross-industry
convergence
25
25
22
22
22
113
116
118
119
120
86
85
86
89
94
6
10
6
8
9
9
FY16
5
FY17FY18
242
6
FY19
6
6
FY20(f)
EBIT
Electricity costs
Networks,
meters
and levies
245
Depreciation
Operating costs
238
241
248
+1%
3.3%
4%
2,152
2,131
2,122
2,1162,112
Annual
$/customer
(1%)
Key assumptions for FY20(f):
»Tariff increases, change in usage per customer in line with history
»Corporate operating costs and depreciation 50% allocated to Customer
»Operating costs and depreciation allocated by number of customer connections
% CAGR
FY19 RESULTS
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
55
9
1
10
2
2
3
1
FY18Asset disposalsIncentives
5
-8
Net cost savingsInvestments
1
Digital savingsBroadbandFY19
212
223
Delivered $8m of underlying operating cost
improvement in line with FY19 target
$4m from ICT procurement savings
•
Configuration management database
optimised applications
•
Rightsizing of application support
leveraging internal maturity with systems
$3m leaner Wholesale operations
$3m reduction in the cost of bad debt
OTHER OPERATING COST MOVEMENT ($m)
CONTROLLABLE OPEX ($m)
263
247
243
223
212
FY18FY15FY19FY17FY16
-5%
Structural and performance
Accelerated investment
Learn and
Improve
Underlying
movement
Underlying movement
Target = $8m
FY19 RESULTS
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
56
Delivering smart customer solutions
$3m investment in our brand, new product development and
promotion. Key journeys digitised.
Additional $2m investment in workovers of geothermal
wells. R&D and capability continue to reduce costs
•
Delivered 30 GWh p.a. of additional geothermal generation valued at $3m
p.a. in FY19
•
Our internationally-recognised, subsurface team continues
to lower the cost of operations significantly –comfortably
New Zealand’s lowest cost geothermal operator
•
This improves the economics of geothermal development at Tauhara
Introduced new payment methods with PrePay and weekly/fortnightly billing to help customers
manage their bills
•Fewer customers in arrears, customers who would previously have been declined on
credit grounds can now be on-boarded
New products launched to deliver customer choice and innovative rewards including “free-bill”,
“promise plan”, “broadband bundle” and “basic plan” with no PPD
Increased digitisation improving NPS and lowering servicing and acquisition costs
•11% reduction in call centre volumes
•15% increase in web traffic and 7% increase in digital sales
Geothermal fuelling
0.81
0.50
0.25
0.20
0.13
0.15
FY19FY17FY14FY15FY16FY18
-28.6%
Average workovercosts per well ($m)
FY19 RESULTS
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
58
128
102
78
60
FY16FY18FY17FY19
»
EBITDAF up on strong Wholesale performance
»
Working capital changes $14m lower as NZX receivables were higher on strong
June merchant sales position
»
Capital expenditure on continuing operations of $58m in FY19
12 months
ended
30 June 2019
12 months
ended 30 June
2018
Comparison
against FY18
EBITDAF
$518m$481m
↑
$37m
Workingcapital changes
($7m)$7m
↓
($14m)
Taxpaid
($47m)($33m)
↑
($14m)
Interest paid
($65m)($78m)
↓
$13m
SIBCapital
($60m)($78m)
↑
$18m
Non-cash sharebased compensation
$4m$3m
↑
$1m
Significant items
($2m)($1m)
↓
($1m)
Operating free cash flow
$341m$301m
↑
$40m
Operating free cash flow per share
47.5 cps42.0 cps
↑
5.5 cps
Proceeds from saleof assets/operations
$390m$6m
↑
$384m
Free cash flow
$731m$307m
↑
$424m
SIB CAPEX ($m)
FY19 RESULTS
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
59
99
390
425
44
Investment
in associates
Cash change
311
731
Dividends paid
3
6
7
4
8
OFCF
1
Net sales proceeds
301
3
Sources
201
Uses
Net debt repayment
251
Sources
731
341
311
Uses
Shares issued
Growth investment
-78
-65
-33
-47
-78
-60
7
-1
-2
341
481
3
FY18
518
-7
4
FY19
EBITDAF
Working capital changes
Cash interest
Cash tax
SIB cash capex
Share based payments
Significant items
301
OPERATING FREE
CASH FLOW –OFCF
($m)
SOURCES AND USES OF CASH ($m)
FY18
FY19
Gas sale
and repurchase
FY19 RESULTS
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
60
7
50
70
150
100
153
100
136
88
50
125
219
150
207
7
FY20
7
160
16
FY22FY21
7
FY26-
FY27
FY23
7
FY24FY25
92
14
4
FY28-
FY29
57
107
312
232
7
•
Face value of borrowings net of cash reduced by $464m to $943m following the completion of the asset sales and strong
operating cash flow which exceeded dividend payments. Net debt has reduced by $730m since the end of FY15.
Gearing reduced to 28.3% at 30 June 2019, down from 35.4% at 30 June 2018
•
$50m wholesale domestic bond maturity in May 2020, funded through existing facilities
•
Weighted average interest rate increased by 58bp on FY18 as more flexible, lower cost floating rate debt was repaid
with the asset sales proceeds
•
Contact continues to target a credit rating of BBB (net debt / EBITDAF <2.8x)
990
1,677
-47
1,401
1,626
1,416
27
FY15
-12
-4
FY14FY17
25
FY18
38
23
1,608
-5
FY16
41
1,504
-6
1,410
-3
25
FY19
1,698
1,539
1,445
968
6.06%
7.55%
FY17FY19FY16
5.53%
FY14FY15
5.25%
5.01%
FY18
5.59%
CLOSING NET DEBT ($m)
INTEREST RATE (%)
NET DEBT TO EBITDAF (x)
BORROWING MATURITIES ($m)
1,372
1,425
1,672
1,593
1,5061,105
Average net debt ($m)
Weighed average interest rate on average net debt
Face value of borrowings less cash
USPPDrawn bank facilities
Undrawn bank facilitiesDomesticNEXI
Includes S&P adjustments (in FY19 AGS was treated as a lease)
Lease obligationsBorrowingsCash on hand
3.1
3.1
3.0
2.7
2.5
2.4
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.1
2.3
2.1
FY16FY15FY17FY18FY19FY20
forecast
SmoothedSnapshot
Average tenor of 3.8 years as at 30 June 2019
FY19 RESULTS
Contact Energy / International Roadshow / October 2019
61
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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