Investor Roadshow Presentation
MARKET ANNOUNCEMENT
Date: 1 November 2019
NZX: GNE / ASX: GNE
Investor Roadshow Presentation
Genesis Energy Limited (Genesis) CEO Marc England and CFO Chris Jewell will be meeting with
investors in Asia and North America in November to discuss Genesis’ performance and progress
against strategy. Presentations will also be delivered at the Morningstar: Management Behind the
Moat Conference, held in Chicago, along with attendance at the UBS Australasia Conference 2019 in
Sydney.
Please see the attached for relevant presentation material, also available on Genesis’ Investor Centre
web page, https://www.genesisenergy.co.nz/investors.
ENDS
For media enquiries, please contact:
Emma-Kate Greer
Group Manager Corporate Relations
Genesis Energy
M: 027 655 4499
For investor relations enquiries, please contact:
Cameron Parker
Investor Relations Manager
Genesis Energy
P: 09 951 9311
M: 021 241 3150
About Genesis Energy
Genesis Energy (NZX: GNE, ASX: GNE) is a diversified New Zealand energy company. Genesis sells electricity,
reticulated natural gas and LPG through its retail brands of Genesis Energy and Energy Online and is New
Zealand’s largest energy retailer with approximately 500,000 customers. The Company generates electricity
from a diverse portfolio of thermal and renewable generation assets located in different parts of the country.
Genesis also has a 46% interest in the Kupe Joint Venture, which owns the Kupe Oil and Gas Field offshore of
Taranaki, New Zealand. Genesis had revenue of $NZ2.7 billion during the 12 months ended 30 June 2019. More
information can be found at www.genesisenergy.co.nz
---
Investor Roadshow
November2019
G E N E S I S E N E R G Y L I M I T E D
Marc England –CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
Chris Jewell –CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
Hong Kong, Tokyo, Chicago, Sydney
Disclaimer
ThispresentationhasbeenpreparedbyGenesisEnergyLimited(‘GenesisEnergy’)forinformationpurposesonly.Theinformationin
thispresentationisofageneralnatureanddoesnotpurporttobecompletenordoesitcontainalltheinformationrequiredforan
investortoevaluateaninvestment.Thispresentationmaycontainprojectionsorforward-lookingstatementsregardingavarietyof
items.Suchforward-lookingstatementsarebaseduponcurrentexpectationsandinvolverisksanduncertainties.Actualresultsmay
differmateriallyfromthosestatedinanyforward-lookingstatementbasedonanumberofimportantfactorsandrisks.
Althoughmanagementmayindicateandbelievethattheassumptionsunderlyingtheforward-lookingstatementsarereasonable,any
oftheassumptionscouldproveinaccurateorincorrectand,therefore,therecanbenoassurancethattheresultscontemplatedinthe
forward-lookingstatementswillberealised.EBITDAF,underlyingprofitandfreecashflowarenon-GAAP(generallyaccepted
accountingpractice)measures.Whileallreasonablecarehasbeentakenincompilingthispresentation,tothemaximumextent
permittedbylawGenesisEnergyacceptsnoresponsibilityforanyerrorsoromissionsandnorepresentationismadeastothe
accuracy,completenessorreliabilityoftheinformation.Thispresentationdoesnotconstituteinvestmentadvice.Allreferenceto$are
NewZealanddollars,unlessspecificallystated.
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 2.
Presenters
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 3.
Marc England
Chief Executive -MBA, MENG
Marc joined Genesis in May 2016. He is responsible for the leadership, strategic direction and management
of all its business interests.
Prior to joining Genesis, Marc was Executive General Manager New Energy at AGL Energy in Australia and
also previously held the role of Group Head of Strategy there. Marc has 12 years’ experience in the sector
across three markets having also worked at British Gas, a subsidiary of Centrica Plc, in the UK from 2007.
Earlier in his career Marc held a number of Corporate Finance roles at Ford Motor Company and prior to
that was a Petroleum Engineer for Halliburton Energy Services in the Middle East and United States. Marc
has an Master of Engineering in Mechanical Engineering and European Studies and an MBA.
Chris Jewell
Chief Financial Officer & Executive General Manager Strategy -BE (Hons), MEM, CIMA
Chris joined the Genesis Executive in 2013 as General Manager Portfolio Management and was appointed
Chief Financial Officer in 2016. From 1 July 2019 his role was expanded to include executive general
management of Strategy.
Chris is responsible for leading the Company’s strategy formulation and overseeing all finance functions,
treasury, tax, risk, corporate finance, mergers and acquisitions, investor relations and procurement.
Chris brings significant senior leadership experience in the energy sector across the disciplines of markets,
infrastructure investment and asset operations. Chris sat on the Electricity Authority governance boards and
has previously worked in the telecommunications and infrastructure sectors in the United Kingdom.
Whyinvest inGenesis?
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 4.
Genesis is accelerating the
pace of change, powered by
people, culture and
agile processes
Our diverse generation
portfolio ensures stability
and benefits from
market volatility
A transformed
customer platform is
delivering medium term
growth opportunities
Yield
Growth
Transformation
Investor
Strategy
Financial
Strategy
Business
Strategy
The New Zealand
Market
This presentation outlines Genesis Energy’s Strategy to drive a stable yield
and medium term growth
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 5.
•$400m+
EBITDAF
by 2021
•Yield, plus
growth
•Our Vision
& Purpose
Performing &
Transforming
Agenda
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 6.
The New Zealand Market
Our Investor Strategy
Our Financial Strategy
And Our Business Strategy
The New Zealand
Market
Performing &
Transforming
Source: Economy Rankings 2018 (The World Bank), The Heritage Foundation 2019, Legatum Prosperity Index 2018,
Energy Architecture Performance Index 2017 (World Economic Forum)
Ease of doing
business
st
Investor
Protection
st
billion,
2.4% growth
GDP
Global Prosperity
Index
Providing
Sustainable,
Secure Energy
th
Economic
Freedom
rd
nd
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 8.
About New Zealand
Good growth in a stable political and regulatory environment
1 state owned national
transmission grid operator
1 privately owned gas
transmission network
5major electricity generators
4gas fields make up over 80%
of gross production
29electricity lines companies
5 gas distributors
4 LPG distributors
2m electricity customers
270,000 gas customers,
220,000 LPG customers
48%
residential
customers
Retail
39%
small, medium
enterprises
13%
commercial
& industrial
customers
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 9.
Abundant resources
available for development
Stable regulatory
environment supportive of
renewable electricity and
decarbonisation
Opportunity to decarbonise
industry and transport
through electricity
New Zealand’s domestic energy market
Deregulated unsubsidisedmarket with nearly 25 years of a free-market competitiveoperating system
NZ’s opportunity is to decarboniseenergy demandthrough electrification
International
oil price
volatility
continues
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 10.
5%
22%
5%
20%
48%
Opportunity to decarbonise
factories through electrification
Opportunity to decarbonise
transport through
electrification
Other
(incl. industrial)
Electricity
Transport
Agriculture
source: MfEGreenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2017
Waste
Co2-e
“The Committee has identified accelerated
electrification as a major opportunity to more
rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but is
calling for more action to take advantage of this.”
-Interim Climate Change Committee, June 2019
“Our government’s goal is to decarbonise our
economy while keeping electricity costs low for
consumers and creating new jobs in renewable
energy.”
-Minister Woods speech embracing renewable
electricity future, July 2019
Leveraging off an already renewable electricity system translates to a greater reduction in carbon emissions
2,800
3,000
3,200
3,400
3,600
3,800
4,000
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
GRID DEMAND
SHOWING SIGNS OF GROWTH (GWH)
5 year range20182019
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
GAS DEMAND STABLE
4 QUARTER MOVING AVERAGE (PJ)
Consumption Non-Energy Use Energy Transformation
Core energy markets are stable or growing
Growing LPG
market and
opportunity for
both retail and
wholesale sales
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 11.
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
Sep-14Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
LPG GROWTH CONTINUES
ROLLING 12 MONTH SALES (KT)
Bulk Market45 kg MarketForklift Market9 kg MarketAuto Market
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
65000
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
GRID DEMAND FORECASTS (GWH)
Transpower - NZ Inc (mid)MBIE EDGS Disruptive (high)
MBIE EDGS Reference (mid)MBIE EDGS Global (low)
Anticipated grid
demand growth
will support
wholesale value
...with the electricity market reflecting tighter capacity margins
EA data
ASX data
MBIE data
$50
$70
$90
$110
$130
$150
$170
$190
2016201720182019
ASX FUTURE SPOT PRICES ($MWH)
1-Year Contract
2-Year Contract
3-Year Contract
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 12.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Sep-14Sep-15Sep-16Sep-17Sep-18Sep-19
WHOLESALE ELECTRICITY PRICE ($/MWH)
Average over the period
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
201420152016201720182019
RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY PRICE (C/KWH)
Stable
residential
electricity prices
reduces regulatory
intervention
risk
Capacity
and fuel shortages
are creating
opportunity for
wholesale
margins
ASX future spot
prices are
significantly
elevated
...and fuel markets tightening
International oil
price volatility
continues
Declining gas
reserves support
value of existing
reserves
BloombergMBIE data
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 13.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035
FORECAST LPG PRODUCTION PROFILE
ConsumptionConsumption projection
Domesitc productionProduction forecast
Import
required
MBIE data
0
50
100
150
200
250
2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035
FORECAST GAS PRODUCTION PROFILE
Gas production forecastGas production
2018 gas use2018 gas use exl. chem.
Shift to LPG
import supports
value of remaining
LPG reserves
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
BRENT CRUDE (USD/BBL)
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 14.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
20082009201020112012201320142015201620172018
New Zealand generation mix
Hydro
Geothermal
Wind and other
renewables
Thermal
Gas costs
Electricity
costs
Aluminium
demand
Methanol
prices
Carbon
costs
Coal prices
Domestic drivers
International drivers
Wholesale electricity and gas prices impacted by
domestic and international drivers
Growth in renewable generation has
progressed without subsidies
Hydro
inflows
Progress towards greater renewable electricity anticipated to continue as wind costs decline
Renewable electricity has grown from 65% to 85% over last decade
New Zealand Aluminium
Smelter
Significant portion of
lower South Island load
051015
Upper
North Island
Central
North Island
Lower
North Island
Upper
South Island
Lower
South Island
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 15.
Ifsmelter closesSouth IslandGenerators most impacted –could accelerate industry electrification
Transmission is a
challenge for
energy moving
north to displace
other generation
NZAS
0510
Upper
North Island
Central
North Island
Lower
North Island
Upper
South Island
Lower
South Island
NEW ZEALAND ELECTRICITY DEMAND (TWH)
Greatest impact is to South Island generators
Transmission investment needed to move
electricity North.
North Island generation and retail segments
have some protection from diverted supply, if
smelter closes.
Opportunity for excess South Island generation
to electrify industrial coal use in the South
Island.
DemandGeneration
New Zealand aluminium smelterreview
Auckland Demand
Huntly Power Station
(Genesis, 948 MW)
Geographical
diversity of
assets has
benefits
Investor
Strategy
Performing &
Transforming
335
333
361
363
360-380
400-420
FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20 (f)FY21 (f)
NZ$ MILLIONS
A strong yield underpinned by medium term growth opportunities
NZX 50 / ASX 100 YIELD COMPARISON
Bloomberg
EBITDAF
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 17.
$-
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Mean Yield (LHS)90th Percentile Yield (LHS)
75th Percentile Yield (LHS)25th Percentile Yield (LHS)
GNE Yield (LHS) GNE Share Price (NZ$)
Strongest sector yield at current prices, 75
th
percentile across NZX/ASX market
to grow dividends in real-terms over time, up 6.6% from FY15
FY15 TO FY19 DIVIDEND, CENTS PER SHARE
16.0
16.4
16.6
16.9
17.05
0
FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19
Dividends (CPS)
•FY19 full yeardividend of 17.05cps,
80% imputed.
•Supplementary dividend payable to
non-resident shareholders (FY19, 2.41
cps)
•ADividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) in
play, offered at 2.5% discount.
•Dividends have increased 6.6% from
FY15 to FY19, relative to a CPI increase
of 5.4% over the same period.
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 18.
Our investor strategy and dividend policy
Financial
Strategy
Performing &
Transforming
363
7
400
10 -12
15 -30
10 -15
10 -20
420
FY19 EBITDAFIFRS16 ImpactKupe Production
Decline
Retail GrowthOptimisationGas Supply
Agreements roll-off
FY21 Target
Driven by targeted retail growth, optimisation and roll-off of legacy gas contracts
A
B
C
Residential Value Growth
B2B Growth
LPG Growth
1
Kupe production decline is a one-off occurrence prior completion of the Inlet Compression Project in mid-calendar year 2021, after which max production will resume.
2
Retail growth represents gross margin improvements in the Retail segment through volume and value growth, based on the three keyareas identified above.
3
Optimisation represents value creation from reduced operating expenses, enhanced wholesale revenues through improved plant and fuel efficiency and return to normal fuel and operating conditions.
1
2
$MILLIONS
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 20.
1
2
3
Our financial strategy is to deliver $400m+ EBITDAF by FY21
3
Retail growth initiative –Grow Residential Portfolio Value
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 21.
1A
Investment in loyalty, brand, product innovation and digitisation is driving down churn and cost to serve
1
1
Retail costs associated with serving customers across all fuel types divided by the total
numbers of ICPs at time of reporting.
2
Installation Connection Point (ICP), a connection point that is both occupied and has not been
disconnected.
$110
$120
$130
$140
$150
$160
$170
FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20 (f)FY21 (f)
Cost to serve ($/ICP)
Engaged and loyal customers will choose to stay, reducing
churn costs, gross churn down 5 ppt in 24 months
20.1%
18.8%
17.0%
16.4%
32.8%
31.4%
29.0%
27.7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1HFY182HFY181HFY192HFY19
Net ChurnGross Churn
Digitisation is having a positive impact on the cost to
serve, down 12.5% in three years
Retail growth initiative –Grow Business Customer Market Share
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 22.
1B
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21
GWh
Elec (GWh)Gas (GWhe)LPG (GWhe)
Focus remains on volume growth but not at the expense of value
Previously under-indexed in the business segment, Genesis is
targeting growth in the agriculture and hospitality sectors
Netback
1
is a key indicator of the value able to be created by
the retail segment, prior to paying for energy costs
1
EBITDAF by fuel type plus respective fuel purchase cost divided by total fuel sales volumes,
stated in native fuel units (excluding corporate allocation costs).
Business NetbacksFY17FY18FY19FY20 (f)FY21 (f)
Electricity ($/MWh)$89$88$94~$95-97~$95-100
Gas
($/GJ)
$7.8$7.6$8.0~$8.0~$8.5-9.5
LPG
($/t)
N/A$754$882
~$900 -
1,000
~$950 -
1,050
Retail growth initiatives –LPGGrowth & Operational Synergies
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 23.
1C
LPG plays an important role in growing our multi-fuel customer base and lowering churn of electricity customers
26% of Genesis’
customers
choosing to buy
multiple fuels
consume LPG
Only 4 national
LPG suppliers.
Churn below
10% for LPG
dual fuel
customers
Genesis is the
only LPG
supplier with
direct access to
upstream LPG
supply (Kupe)
LPG sales volume is expected to grow in line with market
expansion and netbacks forecast to increase
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20 (f)FY21 (f)
Sales Volume (tonnes)
Residential Sales VolumeBusiness Sales VolumeNetback ($/t, RHS)
Optimisation Initiative –Portfolio & Cost Efficiencies
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 24.
2
Core to portfolio optimisation is connecting Genesis Wholesale market capability with its customers for mutual
benefit, as delivered in our ‘For Dairy’ product launch
Huntly U5’s gas
turbineupgrade
delivered an
additional 2 MW
in output and
$800k/year in
fuel efficiency
savings
‘For Dairy’
combines low
seasonal
generation
demand with high
seasonal dairy
electricity
consumption
ASX future spot
prices remain
elevated,
presenting an
opportunity to
capture
wholesale margin
Current average ASX future spot prices are significantly
above historical averages, up 36%
ASX data
$76
$103
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
2016201720182019
2-Year ContractFY16-18 AvgFY19/20 Avg
Legacy gassupply agreement roll-off
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 25.
3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26
PJ
TAKE-OR-PAY (ToP) FORWARD GAS PURCHASES
1
BENEFITS AND TIMING OF ALTERNATIVE GAS PURCHASE COST
2
1
Represents gas contracts under which Genesis is required to take the product or pay a
penalty. Includes Kupe and Producer Price Index adjustments.
2
Assumes approx. 37PJs of gas continues to flow through the fuel-book over the timeframe FY21
to FY26, at indicative gas market prices ranging from $7/GJ to $8/GJ, excluding transmission.
Benefitsarising from GSA roll-off begin in FY21 at an estimated $10-20m
ToPgas prices at $8-10/GJ, excluding transmission
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26
7/GJ8/GJ
Business
Strategy
Performing &
Transforming
An integrated energy management company, Genesis is New Zealand’s largest energy retailer, generates electricity
from a diverse portfolio of thermal and renewable assets and has a 46% interestin the Kupe gas field.
KEY INFORMATION
Revenue (FY19): NZ$2.7 billion
EBITDAF (FY19):NZ$363 million
Gross Dividend Yield*: 6.8%
Share Price*: NZ$3.28
Market Capitalisation*: NZ$3.4 billion
Enterprise Value*: NZ$4.6 billion
90 Day Average Volume Traded: 550,000 shares
Credit Rating: BBB+ (Standard & Poors)
* Calculation as at 29 October 2019.
,
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 27.
21%
38%
25%
A bit about Genesis
Our geographically and fuel diverse assets enable stable earnings
End-to-end integration, diversity and scale gives us stability of earnings in a volatile renewable energy market
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 28.
Kupe oil and gas field
(Genesis, 46% share)
•319 PJ of reserves
•50% of NZ LPG
production
•Exploration rights in
New Zealand’s most
productive area
Renewable generation
•3 hydro catchments
across both North
and South Island
•2,800 GWh or 45%
of Genesis’ annual
generation
•Consented wind
farm for ~600MW
Thermal generation
•Two multi-fuelled
Rankine units
•NZ’s largest and
most efficient CCGT
•More than 20 PJ of
fuel storage
available on site
Customer base
•NZ’s largest energy
retailer, more than
500k customers
•Three fuels, two
brands, one
platform
GROSS MARGIN CONTRIBUTION (FY19)
Gas 11%
Oil 5%LPG 3%
Renewable generation 26%
Thermal generation 18%
Residential electricity 19%
Business
electricity
6%
LPG 7%
Gas 5%
KUPE 19%WHOLESALE 44%CUSTOMER 37%
ElectricityGasLPGOil
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 29.
Genesis enjoys diversity of earnings across sectors, fuels and markets
Our VISION: to be customers’ first choice for energy management
Our PURPOSE: to reimagine energy to put control in our customers’ hands
PERFORMING
TRANSFORMING
Increase # of customers using
energy management tools and
increase digital interactions
Grow our earnings and deliver top
quartile shareholder returns
Be #1 or #2 in every
product market
Energise our people and improve
engagement
Keep our people
healthy and safe
Maximise the value of our assets,
products and businesses
Embrace diversity
of thought
Employees are engaged advocates for
our brands and products
Move toward a lower
carbon future
Be New Zealand’s most
loved brand
Our STRATEGY: to maximise value through our market position
Wholesale Market
Maximising value from our Generation & Fuels
Portfolio as we transition to a lower carbon future
Retail Market
Engaging customers through loyalty as we innovate
to a data-driven future
We’re performing while transforming towards a new energy future
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 30.
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 31.
Engaging customers through loyalty as we innovateto a data-driven future
Energy managementproducts and services differentiates us from our competitors
Action
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 32.
Customer Lifetime
Value up 12
%
, from
FY17
Residential
Dual Fuel customers
up 11
%
, from FY17
Digital customer
interactions up 41
%
in one year
Cost to Serve
down 7
%
, in one
year
A product-led strategy is coming to life
Investment in loyaltyproducts, data platforms and algorithmfueled innovation is reducing churn and driving
value
Castle Hill Wind Farm consents held as
possible future development
Waipipiwind farm PPA to add 450 GWh
of new renewables, displacing c. 20% of
our remaining thermal baseload
Maximising portfolio value as NZ transitions to a low carbon future
Economically displace baseload thermal
with renewable generation
Future-Gen, transitioning our generation portfolio
Progressing
PPA Wind
Considering
PPA Solar
Considering PPA
Geothermal
Considering
future swaptions
Creating fuel and
plant flexibility
Investing in carbon
offsets
Enhance the value of our flexible thermal
in an increasingly renewable market
Drylands afforestation partnership to
create cost effective carbon abatement
for emissions
Consents held to replace retired Rankine
units with new open cycle gas turbines
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 33.
New Zealand’s unique seasonal demand gap requires thermal back-up
Demand is highest in winter, when southern inflows are the lowest
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 34.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Solar Monthly Total (GWh)
Monthly Totals (GWh)
Seasonal Storage Challenge
South Island InflowNational DemandSolar Generation (per 1000MW Installed)
Thermal flexes with demand and hydro variability
5 TWh
of thermal flexibility needed
Contact
377 MW gas fired generation + 155MW diesel
Nova/Todd
109 MW gas fired generation
Genesis
400 MW CCGT (High efficiency & flexible)
500 MW dual fuel Rankine units
48 MW OCGT
Few major thermal generators remain
Contact Energy 377 MW CCGT
life extension decision due early
2020 (c. $80m)
1500MW+ of thermal generation retired since 2008
Genesis Energy
500 MW Rankine recertification
required 2022
Genesis is well positioned to provideflexible energy as NZ transitions
Increased wind penetration will shift the role of hydro, but seasonal flexibility still required
Energy ResourceImpact of transition on value
Baseload / non-dispatchable•Wind generation increases as costs decline, new builds cap value
Daily flexibility
•Growing solar and wind penetration increases demand for day/night flexibility
•Batteries, EVs and demand response could meet future needs
Weekly flexibility
•Growing wind penetration increases demand for multi-day flexibility
•Shift in role of hydro from baseload to firming
Seasonal flexibility
•Continued dominance of hydro and increased renewable penetration increase demand for
seasonal flexibility
•Lack of viable technology alternatives to provide dry year support
Limited value
opportunity
Some value
opportunity
Strong value
opportunity
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 35.
Underpinning our work is our sustainability framework, aligned
with UN Sustainable Development Goals
Our people are engaged and diverse in experience and
thought, fuelling innovative customer solutions
Sustainability at Genesis means caring for the environment, supporting our people to succeed and building strong
communities while powering New Zealand towards a positive, sustainable future
Enabling a more sustainable future
Genesis gender
Pay Equity Gap
now just
1.6%,with
women making up
45%of total
workforce
Greater than 20
disclosed
ethnicities
represented in
total workforce
Our employee
engagement score
is now 71%, up
12 points on the
prior year
Caring for our environment
Building strong communities
Powering New Zealand
•Whioduck re-establishment, 143% increase in population
since 2011
•Genesis vehicle fleet conversion underway to EVs, 100% of
light vehicles by 2020, 50% of heavy vehicle fleet by 2025
•Genesis School-gen initiative has engaged over 1,000 schools,
with a new School-gen Trust established
•Established partnerships with local iwi are valued and highly
significant to Genesis
•WaipipiWind Farm off-take agreement for 450GWh per
annum from 2021, off-setting 250,000 tonnes of carbon
•DrylandCarbonlaunched in March 2019, a Joint venture
focused on securing forestry generated New Zealand Units
(NZU) carbon credits
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 36.
FY19 Results at a glance
Genesis Energy Limited FY19 Full Year Result Presentation 38.
1
Both gross and net churn is expressed on the basis of a 12 month rolling average.
2
Installation Connection Point (ICP), a connection point that is both occupied and has not been disconnected.
3
Netback is defined as Retail EBITDAF by fuel type plus respective fuel purchase cost divided by total fuel sales volumes, statedin native fuel units and
excluding corporate allocation costs.
Balance SheetFY19
($m)
FY18
($m)
Variance
Cash and Cash Equivalents61.949.3
Other Current Assets416.4339.4
Non-Current Assets4,154.23,838.8
Total Assets4,632.54,227.5+9.6%
Total Borrowings1,289.81,255.4
Other Liabilities1,191.91,015.7
Total Equity2,150.81,956.4+9.9%
AdjustedNet Debt1,186.21,182.9
Gearing per bank Covenants30.6%32.5%
EBITDAF InterestCover6.5x6.4x
Net Debt/EBITDAF
2
3.0x3.0x
Income StatementFY19
($m)
FY18
($m)
Variance
Revenue2,700.72,302.5+17.3%
Total Operating Expenses(2,337.3)(1,942.1)+20.3%
EBITDAF363.4360.4+0.8%
Depreciation, Depletion & Amortisation(196.5)(205.7)
Impairment of Non-Current Assets(7.0)(0.4)
Revaluation of Generation Assets4.6(48.8)
FairValue Change(15.2)(3.1)
Share of Associate(0.2)-
Other Gains (Losses)7.3(0.7)
Earnings Before Interest & Tax156.4101.7+53.8%
Interest(73.3)(74.3)
Tax(23.9)(7.7)
Net Profit After Tax59.219.7+200.5%
Earnings Per Share (cps)5.841.97
Stay inBusiness Capital Expenditure64.650.8+27.5%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)
1
175.7189.8(7.4%)
Dividends Per Share (cps)17.0516.9+0.9%
Dividends Declared as a % ofFCF99.0%89.4%+10.4 ppt
Cash Flow SummaryFY19
($m)
FY18
($m)
Variance
($m)
Net Operating Cash Flow301.4330.6
Net Investing Cash Flow(92.7)(82.2)
Net FinancingCash Flow(196.1)(226.9)
Net Increase (Decrease)in Cash12.621.5(41.4%)
Financial statements
1
Free cash flow (FCF) represents EBITDAF less cash tax paid, net interest and stay in business capital expenditure. This is a change in methodology from FY17 with tax paid replacing an adjusted tax calculation. All
historical information has been restated to the new measure.
2
Standard and Poor’s make a number of adjustments to Net Debt and EBITDAF for the purpose of calculating credit metrics. The most significant of these is the 50% equity treatment attributed to the Capital Bonds.
Genesis Energy Limited FY19 Full Year Result Presentation 39.
Debt InformationFY19
($m)
FY18
($m)
Variance
Total Debt$1,289.81,255.4
Cash and Cash Equivalents$ 61.949.3
Headline Net Debt$1,227.91,206.1+1.8%
USPPFX and FV Adjustments$41.723.2
AdjustedNet Debt
1
$1,186.21,182.9+0.3%
Headline Gearing37.5%39.1%(1.6 ppts)
AdjustedGearing36.7%38.6%(1.9 ppts)
Covenant Gearing30.6%32.5%(1.8 ppts)
Net Debt/EBITDAF
2
3.0x3.0x
Interest Cover6.5x6.4x
Average InterestRate5.8%5.8%
Average Debt Tenure11.9 yrs11.4 yrs
1
Net debt has been adjusted for foreign currency translation and fair value movements
related to USD denominated borrowings which have been fully hedged with cross
currency swaps.
2
Standard and Poor’s make a number of adjustments to Net Debt and EBITDAF for the
purpose of calculating credit metrics. The most significant of these is the 50% equity
treatment attributed to the Capital Bonds.
GENESIS DEBT PROFILE
Diversified funding profile
The $240m of Capital Bonds maturing in FY 2049 were issued on 16 July 2018 following a successful
capital raising in June 2018. $200m of existing Capital Bonds were redeemed at the same time.
Genesis Energy Limited FY19 Full Year Result Presentation 40.
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26FY27FY47FY49
$m
Retailable BondsWholesale DomesticDrawn Bank
Undrawn BankCapital BondsUSPP
Retail Key InformationFY19FY18Variance
EBITDAF ($ millions)122.5109.7+11.7%
Customers with > 1 Fuel117,138109,710+6.8%
ElectricityOnly Customers328,415341,546
Gas Only Customers16,54917,823
LPG Only Customers34,18135,124
Total Customers496,283504,203(1.6%)
Total Electricity, Gas & LPG ICP’s675,056672,240+0.4%
VolumeWeighted Average Electricity
Selling Price –Resi ($/MWh)
$255.82$252.26+1.4%
VolumeWeighted Average Electricity
Selling Price –SME ($/MWh)
$221.17$216.66+2.1%
VolumeWeighted Average Electricity
Selling Price –C&I ($/MWh)
$128.71$121.46+6.0%
Volume WeightedAverage Gas Selling
Price –($/GJ)
$18.97$19.45(2.5%)
Volume WeightedAverage LPG Selling
Price –($/t)
$1,807.7$1,773.3(1.9%)
Retail Cost to Serve per ICP140.62151.38(7.1%)
Operational metrics
Genesis Energy Limited FY19 Full Year Result Presentation 41.
Retail Key InformationFY19FY18Variance
Customer Electricity Sales (GWh)6,0675,980+1.5%
Customer Gas Sales (PJ)8.27.5+9.3%
Customer LPG Sales (tonnes)38,50735,005+10.0%
Electricity Netback ($/MWh)$104.93$100.28+4.6%
Gas Netback ($/GJ)$9.10$8.67+5.0%
LPG Netback ($/t)$835.95$767.47+8.9%
Retail Netback
1
by Segment & FuelFY17FY18FY19
Residential -Electricity ($/MWh)$117.4$111.9$116.3
Residential -Gas ($/GJ)$10.8$10.7$11.4
Residential -LPG ($/tonne)N/A$788.2$765.3
SME -Electricity ($/MWh)$101.8$100.9$105.9
SME -Gas ($/GJ)$9.1$9.2$9.6
SME -LPG ($/tonne)N/A$821.5$997.5
C&I -Electricity ($/MWh)$78.1$80.1$87.3
C&I -Gas ($/GJ)$7.2$6.9$7.2
C&I -LPG ($/tonne)N/A$590.3$769.3
Operational metrics
Genesis Energy Limited FY19 Full Year Result Presentation 42.
WholesaleKey InformationFY19FY18Variance
EBITDAF ($ millions)177.6178.0(0.2%)
Renewable Generation (GWh)2,8343,056(7.3%)
Thermal Generation (GWh)3,9874,049(1.5%)
Total Generation (GWh)6,8217,105(4.0%)
GWAP ($/MWh)$143.42$91.59+56.6%
Electricity Purchases –Retail (GWh)6,3956,298+1.5%
LWAP ($/MWh)$139.01$92.08+51.0%
LWAP/GWAP Ratio97%101%(4 ppts)
Electricity CFD Purchases (GWh)2,2552,023+11.4%
Electricity CFD Sales (GWh)2,4752,711(8.7%)
Coal/GasMix (Rankines only)88/1263/37
Gas Used in Internal Generation (PJ)20.226.7(24.3%)
Coal Used in Internal Generation (PJ)15.97.6+109.2%
Weighted Average Gas Burn Cost ($/GJ)$8.69$8.02+8.4%
Weighted Average Coal Burn Cost ($/GJ)$6.33$5.44+16.3%
Weighted AverageThermal Fuel Cost
($/MWh)
$73.78$66.53+10.9%
Weighted AveragePortfolio Fuel Cost
($/MWh)
$43.13$37.91+13.8%
1
FY19 remaining reserves include FY18 production of 36.7 PJe, and represent a 1% increase in
total reserves in FY19 (4.6 PJe).
KupeKey InformationFY19FY18Variance
EBITDAF ($m)108.8115.3(5.6%)
Field Production (PJ)25.725.5+0.8%
Genesis Gas Sales (PJ)11.412.1(5.8%)
Genesis Oil Sales (kbbl)441533(17.3%)
Genesis LPG Sales (kt)50.746.1+10.0%
Oil Production Yield (bbl/TJ)40.045.3(11.7%)
LPG Production Yield (t/TJ)4.33.9+10.3%
Remaining Kupe Reserves (2P, PJe)
1
319.0351.1+4.6PJe
AverageBrent Crude Oil (USD/bbl)$69$64+7.8%
Realised Oil Price(NZD/bbl)$88$80+10.0%
Genesis Energy Limited FY19 Full Year Result Presentation 43.
Genesis’ share register
90-day average trading volume of 550,000 shares equates to NZD1.75m per day, or approximately USD1.1m
51%
35%
6%
6%
2%
HOLDER BY GEOGRAPHY
CrownNew ZealandAustraliaNorth AmericaRest of World
51%
19%
30%
HOLDER BY TYPE
CrownInstitutionalRetail
51%
5%
10%
34%
SUM OF REGISTER HOLDING BY %
Crown2-3%1-2%<1%
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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