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Investor Roadshow Presentation

Investor Presentation31 October 2019GNEUtilities

MARKET ANNOUNCEMENT
Date: 1 November 2019

NZX: GNE / ASX: GNE

Investor Roadshow Presentation


Genesis Energy Limited (Genesis) CEO Marc England and CFO Chris Jewell will be meeting with

investors in Asia and North America in November to discuss Genesis’ performance and progress

against strategy. Presentations will also be delivered at the Morningstar: Management Behind the

Moat Conference, held in Chicago, along with attendance at the UBS Australasia Conference 2019 in

Sydney.


Please see the attached for relevant presentation material, also available on Genesis’ Investor Centre

web page, https://www.genesisenergy.co.nz/investors.


ENDS


For media enquiries, please contact:

Emma-Kate Greer

Group Manager Corporate Relations

Genesis Energy

M: 027 655 4499


For investor relations enquiries, please contact:

Cameron Parker

Investor Relations Manager

Genesis Energy

P: 09 951 9311

M: 021 241 3150


About Genesis Energy

Genesis Energy (NZX: GNE, ASX: GNE) is a diversified New Zealand energy company. Genesis sells electricity,

reticulated natural gas and LPG through its retail brands of Genesis Energy and Energy Online and is New

Zealand’s largest energy retailer with approximately 500,000 customers. The Company generates electricity

from a diverse portfolio of thermal and renewable generation assets located in different parts of the country.

Genesis also has a 46% interest in the Kupe Joint Venture, which owns the Kupe Oil and Gas Field offshore of

Taranaki, New Zealand. Genesis had revenue of $NZ2.7 billion during the 12 months ended 30 June 2019. More

information can be found at www.genesisenergy.co.nz

---

Investor Roadshow
November2019

G E N E S I S E N E R G Y L I M I T E D

Marc England –CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER

Chris Jewell –CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER

Hong Kong, Tokyo, Chicago, Sydney

Disclaimer
ThispresentationhasbeenpreparedbyGenesisEnergyLimited(‘GenesisEnergy’)forinformationpurposesonly.Theinformationin

thispresentationisofageneralnatureanddoesnotpurporttobecompletenordoesitcontainalltheinformationrequiredforan

investortoevaluateaninvestment.Thispresentationmaycontainprojectionsorforward-lookingstatementsregardingavarietyof

items.Suchforward-lookingstatementsarebaseduponcurrentexpectationsandinvolverisksanduncertainties.Actualresultsmay

differmateriallyfromthosestatedinanyforward-lookingstatementbasedonanumberofimportantfactorsandrisks.

Althoughmanagementmayindicateandbelievethattheassumptionsunderlyingtheforward-lookingstatementsarereasonable,any

oftheassumptionscouldproveinaccurateorincorrectand,therefore,therecanbenoassurancethattheresultscontemplatedinthe

forward-lookingstatementswillberealised.EBITDAF,underlyingprofitandfreecashflowarenon-GAAP(generallyaccepted

accountingpractice)measures.Whileallreasonablecarehasbeentakenincompilingthispresentation,tothemaximumextent

permittedbylawGenesisEnergyacceptsnoresponsibilityforanyerrorsoromissionsandnorepresentationismadeastothe

accuracy,completenessorreliabilityoftheinformation.Thispresentationdoesnotconstituteinvestmentadvice.Allreferenceto$are

NewZealanddollars,unlessspecificallystated.

Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 2.

Presenters
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 3.

Marc England

Chief Executive -MBA, MENG

Marc joined Genesis in May 2016. He is responsible for the leadership, strategic direction and management

of all its business interests.

Prior to joining Genesis, Marc was Executive General Manager New Energy at AGL Energy in Australia and

also previously held the role of Group Head of Strategy there. Marc has 12 years’ experience in the sector

across three markets having also worked at British Gas, a subsidiary of Centrica Plc, in the UK from 2007.

Earlier in his career Marc held a number of Corporate Finance roles at Ford Motor Company and prior to

that was a Petroleum Engineer for Halliburton Energy Services in the Middle East and United States. Marc

has an Master of Engineering in Mechanical Engineering and European Studies and an MBA.

Chris Jewell

Chief Financial Officer & Executive General Manager Strategy -BE (Hons), MEM, CIMA

Chris joined the Genesis Executive in 2013 as General Manager Portfolio Management and was appointed

Chief Financial Officer in 2016. From 1 July 2019 his role was expanded to include executive general

management of Strategy.

Chris is responsible for leading the Company’s strategy formulation and overseeing all finance functions,

treasury, tax, risk, corporate finance, mergers and acquisitions, investor relations and procurement.

Chris brings significant senior leadership experience in the energy sector across the disciplines of markets,

infrastructure investment and asset operations. Chris sat on the Electricity Authority governance boards and

has previously worked in the telecommunications and infrastructure sectors in the United Kingdom.

Whyinvest inGenesis?
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 4.

Genesis is accelerating the

pace of change, powered by

people, culture and

agile processes

Our diverse generation

portfolio ensures stability

and benefits from

market volatility

A transformed

customer platform is

delivering medium term

growth opportunities

Yield

Growth

Transformation

Investor
Strategy

Financial

Strategy

Business

Strategy

The New Zealand

Market

This presentation outlines Genesis Energy’s Strategy to drive a stable yield

and medium term growth

Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 5.

•$400m+

EBITDAF

by 2021

•Yield, plus

growth

•Our Vision

& Purpose

Performing &

Transforming

Agenda
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 6.

The New Zealand Market

Our Investor Strategy

Our Financial Strategy

And Our Business Strategy

The New Zealand
Market

Performing &

Transforming

Source: Economy Rankings 2018 (The World Bank), The Heritage Foundation 2019, Legatum Prosperity Index 2018,
Energy Architecture Performance Index 2017 (World Economic Forum)

Ease of doing

business

st

Investor

Protection

st

billion,

2.4% growth

GDP

Global Prosperity

Index

Providing

Sustainable,

Secure Energy

th

Economic

Freedom

rd

nd

Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 8.

About New Zealand

Good growth in a stable political and regulatory environment

1 state owned national
transmission grid operator

1 privately owned gas

transmission network

5major electricity generators

4gas fields make up over 80%

of gross production

29electricity lines companies

5 gas distributors

4 LPG distributors

2m electricity customers

270,000 gas customers,

220,000 LPG customers

48%

residential

customers

Retail

39%

small, medium

enterprises

13%

commercial

& industrial

customers

Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 9.

Abundant resources

available for development

Stable regulatory

environment supportive of

renewable electricity and

decarbonisation

Opportunity to decarbonise

industry and transport

through electricity

New Zealand’s domestic energy market

Deregulated unsubsidisedmarket with nearly 25 years of a free-market competitiveoperating system

NZ’s opportunity is to decarboniseenergy demandthrough electrification
International

oil price

volatility

continues

Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 10.

5%

22%

5%

20%

48%

Opportunity to decarbonise

factories through electrification

Opportunity to decarbonise

transport through

electrification

Other

(incl. industrial)

Electricity

Transport

Agriculture

source: MfEGreenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2017

Waste

Co2-e

“The Committee has identified accelerated

electrification as a major opportunity to more

rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but is

calling for more action to take advantage of this.”

-Interim Climate Change Committee, June 2019

“Our government’s goal is to decarbonise our

economy while keeping electricity costs low for

consumers and creating new jobs in renewable

energy.”

-Minister Woods speech embracing renewable

electricity future, July 2019

Leveraging off an already renewable electricity system translates to a greater reduction in carbon emissions

2,800
3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

3,800

4,000

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

GRID DEMAND

SHOWING SIGNS OF GROWTH (GWH)

5 year range20182019

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sep-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Jun-15

Sep-15

Dec-15

Mar-16

Jun-16

Sep-16

Dec-16

Mar-17

Jun-17

Sep-17

Dec-17

Mar-18

Jun-18

Sep-18

Dec-18

Mar-19

Jun-19

GAS DEMAND STABLE

4 QUARTER MOVING AVERAGE (PJ)

Consumption Non-Energy Use Energy Transformation

Core energy markets are stable or growing

Growing LPG

market and

opportunity for

both retail and

wholesale sales

Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 11.

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

Sep-14Dec-14

Mar-15

Jun-15

Sep-15Dec-15

Mar-16

Jun-16

Sep-16Dec-16

Mar-17

Jun-17

Sep-17Dec-17

Mar-18

Jun-18

Sep-18Dec-18

Mar-19

Jun-19

Sep-19

LPG GROWTH CONTINUES

ROLLING 12 MONTH SALES (KT)

Bulk Market45 kg MarketForklift Market9 kg MarketAuto Market

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

60000

65000

20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030

GRID DEMAND FORECASTS (GWH)

Transpower - NZ Inc (mid)MBIE EDGS Disruptive (high)

MBIE EDGS Reference (mid)MBIE EDGS Global (low)

Anticipated grid

demand growth

will support

wholesale value

...with the electricity market reflecting tighter capacity margins
EA data

ASX data

MBIE data

$50

$70

$90

$110

$130

$150

$170

$190

2016201720182019

ASX FUTURE SPOT PRICES ($MWH)

1-Year Contract

2-Year Contract

3-Year Contract

Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 12.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Sep-14Sep-15Sep-16Sep-17Sep-18Sep-19

WHOLESALE ELECTRICITY PRICE ($/MWH)

Average over the period

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

201420152016201720182019

RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY PRICE (C/KWH)

Stable

residential

electricity prices

reduces regulatory

intervention

risk

Capacity

and fuel shortages

are creating

opportunity for

wholesale

margins

ASX future spot

prices are

significantly

elevated

...and fuel markets tightening
International oil

price volatility

continues

Declining gas

reserves support

value of existing

reserves

BloombergMBIE data

Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 13.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035

FORECAST LPG PRODUCTION PROFILE

ConsumptionConsumption projection

Domesitc productionProduction forecast

Import

required

MBIE data

0

50

100

150

200

250

2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035

FORECAST GAS PRODUCTION PROFILE

Gas production forecastGas production

2018 gas use2018 gas use exl. chem.

Shift to LPG

import supports

value of remaining

LPG reserves

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19

BRENT CRUDE (USD/BBL)

Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 14.
0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

20082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

New Zealand generation mix

Hydro

Geothermal

Wind and other

renewables

Thermal

Gas costs

Electricity

costs

Aluminium

demand

Methanol

prices

Carbon

costs

Coal prices

Domestic drivers

International drivers

Wholesale electricity and gas prices impacted by

domestic and international drivers

Growth in renewable generation has

progressed without subsidies

Hydro

inflows

Progress towards greater renewable electricity anticipated to continue as wind costs decline

Renewable electricity has grown from 65% to 85% over last decade

New Zealand Aluminium
Smelter

Significant portion of

lower South Island load

051015

Upper

North Island

Central

North Island

Lower

North Island

Upper

South Island

Lower

South Island

Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 15.

Ifsmelter closesSouth IslandGenerators most impacted –could accelerate industry electrification

Transmission is a

challenge for

energy moving

north to displace

other generation

NZAS

0510

Upper

North Island

Central

North Island

Lower

North Island

Upper

South Island

Lower

South Island

NEW ZEALAND ELECTRICITY DEMAND (TWH)

Greatest impact is to South Island generators

Transmission investment needed to move

electricity North.

North Island generation and retail segments

have some protection from diverted supply, if

smelter closes.

Opportunity for excess South Island generation

to electrify industrial coal use in the South

Island.

DemandGeneration

New Zealand aluminium smelterreview

Auckland Demand

Huntly Power Station

(Genesis, 948 MW)

Geographical

diversity of

assets has

benefits

Investor
Strategy

Performing &

Transforming

335
333

361

363

360-380

400-420

FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20 (f)FY21 (f)

NZ$ MILLIONS

A strong yield underpinned by medium term growth opportunities

NZX 50 / ASX 100 YIELD COMPARISON

Bloomberg

EBITDAF

Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 17.

$-

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Mean Yield (LHS)90th Percentile Yield (LHS)

75th Percentile Yield (LHS)25th Percentile Yield (LHS)

GNE Yield (LHS) GNE Share Price (NZ$)

Strongest sector yield at current prices, 75

th

percentile across NZX/ASX market

to grow dividends in real-terms over time, up 6.6% from FY15
FY15 TO FY19 DIVIDEND, CENTS PER SHARE

16.0

16.4

16.6

16.9

17.05

0

FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19

Dividends (CPS)

•FY19 full yeardividend of 17.05cps,

80% imputed.

•Supplementary dividend payable to

non-resident shareholders (FY19, 2.41

cps)

•ADividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) in

play, offered at 2.5% discount.

•Dividends have increased 6.6% from

FY15 to FY19, relative to a CPI increase

of 5.4% over the same period.

Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 18.

Our investor strategy and dividend policy

Financial
Strategy

Performing &

Transforming

363
7

400

10 -12

15 -30

10 -15

10 -20

420

FY19 EBITDAFIFRS16 ImpactKupe Production

Decline

Retail GrowthOptimisationGas Supply

Agreements roll-off

FY21 Target

Driven by targeted retail growth, optimisation and roll-off of legacy gas contracts

A

B

C

Residential Value Growth

B2B Growth

LPG Growth

1

Kupe production decline is a one-off occurrence prior completion of the Inlet Compression Project in mid-calendar year 2021, after which max production will resume.

2

Retail growth represents gross margin improvements in the Retail segment through volume and value growth, based on the three keyareas identified above.

3

Optimisation represents value creation from reduced operating expenses, enhanced wholesale revenues through improved plant and fuel efficiency and return to normal fuel and operating conditions.

1

2

$MILLIONS

Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 20.

1

2

3

Our financial strategy is to deliver $400m+ EBITDAF by FY21

3

Retail growth initiative –Grow Residential Portfolio Value
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 21.

1A

Investment in loyalty, brand, product innovation and digitisation is driving down churn and cost to serve

1

1

Retail costs associated with serving customers across all fuel types divided by the total

numbers of ICPs at time of reporting.

2

Installation Connection Point (ICP), a connection point that is both occupied and has not been

disconnected.

$110

$120

$130

$140

$150

$160

$170

FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20 (f)FY21 (f)

Cost to serve ($/ICP)

Engaged and loyal customers will choose to stay, reducing

churn costs, gross churn down 5 ppt in 24 months

20.1%

18.8%

17.0%

16.4%

32.8%

31.4%

29.0%

27.7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1HFY182HFY181HFY192HFY19

Net ChurnGross Churn

Digitisation is having a positive impact on the cost to

serve, down 12.5% in three years

Retail growth initiative –Grow Business Customer Market Share
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 22.

1B

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21

GWh

Elec (GWh)Gas (GWhe)LPG (GWhe)

Focus remains on volume growth but not at the expense of value

Previously under-indexed in the business segment, Genesis is

targeting growth in the agriculture and hospitality sectors

Netback

1

is a key indicator of the value able to be created by

the retail segment, prior to paying for energy costs

1

EBITDAF by fuel type plus respective fuel purchase cost divided by total fuel sales volumes,

stated in native fuel units (excluding corporate allocation costs).

Business NetbacksFY17FY18FY19FY20 (f)FY21 (f)

Electricity ($/MWh)$89$88$94~$95-97~$95-100

Gas

($/GJ)

$7.8$7.6$8.0~$8.0~$8.5-9.5

LPG

($/t)

N/A$754$882

~$900 -

1,000

~$950 -

1,050

Retail growth initiatives –LPGGrowth & Operational Synergies
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 23.

1C

LPG plays an important role in growing our multi-fuel customer base and lowering churn of electricity customers

26% of Genesis’

customers

choosing to buy

multiple fuels

consume LPG

Only 4 national

LPG suppliers.

Churn below

10% for LPG

dual fuel

customers

Genesis is the

only LPG

supplier with

direct access to

upstream LPG

supply (Kupe)

LPG sales volume is expected to grow in line with market

expansion and netbacks forecast to increase

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20 (f)FY21 (f)

Sales Volume (tonnes)

Residential Sales VolumeBusiness Sales VolumeNetback ($/t, RHS)

Optimisation Initiative –Portfolio & Cost Efficiencies
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 24.

2

Core to portfolio optimisation is connecting Genesis Wholesale market capability with its customers for mutual

benefit, as delivered in our ‘For Dairy’ product launch

Huntly U5’s gas

turbineupgrade

delivered an

additional 2 MW

in output and

$800k/year in

fuel efficiency

savings

‘For Dairy’

combines low

seasonal

generation

demand with high

seasonal dairy

electricity

consumption

ASX future spot

prices remain

elevated,

presenting an

opportunity to

capture

wholesale margin

Current average ASX future spot prices are significantly

above historical averages, up 36%

ASX data

$76

$103

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

2016201720182019

2-Year ContractFY16-18 AvgFY19/20 Avg

Legacy gassupply agreement roll-off
Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 25.

3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26

PJ

TAKE-OR-PAY (ToP) FORWARD GAS PURCHASES

1

BENEFITS AND TIMING OF ALTERNATIVE GAS PURCHASE COST

2

1

Represents gas contracts under which Genesis is required to take the product or pay a

penalty. Includes Kupe and Producer Price Index adjustments.

2

Assumes approx. 37PJs of gas continues to flow through the fuel-book over the timeframe FY21

to FY26, at indicative gas market prices ranging from $7/GJ to $8/GJ, excluding transmission.

Benefitsarising from GSA roll-off begin in FY21 at an estimated $10-20m

ToPgas prices at $8-10/GJ, excluding transmission

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26

7/GJ8/GJ

Business
Strategy

Performing &

Transforming

An integrated energy management company, Genesis is New Zealand’s largest energy retailer, generates electricity
from a diverse portfolio of thermal and renewable assets and has a 46% interestin the Kupe gas field.

KEY INFORMATION

Revenue (FY19): NZ$2.7 billion

EBITDAF (FY19):NZ$363 million

Gross Dividend Yield*: 6.8%

Share Price*: NZ$3.28

Market Capitalisation*: NZ$3.4 billion

Enterprise Value*: NZ$4.6 billion

90 Day Average Volume Traded: 550,000 shares

Credit Rating: BBB+ (Standard & Poors)

* Calculation as at 29 October 2019.

,

Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 27.

21%

38%

25%

A bit about Genesis

Our geographically and fuel diverse assets enable stable earnings
End-to-end integration, diversity and scale gives us stability of earnings in a volatile renewable energy market

Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 28.

Kupe oil and gas field

(Genesis, 46% share)

•319 PJ of reserves

•50% of NZ LPG

production

•Exploration rights in

New Zealand’s most

productive area

Renewable generation

•3 hydro catchments

across both North

and South Island

•2,800 GWh or 45%

of Genesis’ annual

generation

•Consented wind

farm for ~600MW

Thermal generation

•Two multi-fuelled

Rankine units

•NZ’s largest and

most efficient CCGT

•More than 20 PJ of

fuel storage

available on site

Customer base

•NZ’s largest energy

retailer, more than

500k customers

•Three fuels, two

brands, one

platform

GROSS MARGIN CONTRIBUTION (FY19)
Gas 11%

Oil 5%LPG 3%

Renewable generation 26%

Thermal generation 18%

Residential electricity 19%

Business

electricity

6%

LPG 7%

Gas 5%

KUPE 19%WHOLESALE 44%CUSTOMER 37%

ElectricityGasLPGOil

Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 29.

Genesis enjoys diversity of earnings across sectors, fuels and markets

Our VISION: to be customers’ first choice for energy management
Our PURPOSE: to reimagine energy to put control in our customers’ hands

PERFORMING

TRANSFORMING

Increase # of customers using

energy management tools and

increase digital interactions

Grow our earnings and deliver top

quartile shareholder returns

Be #1 or #2 in every

product market

Energise our people and improve

engagement

Keep our people

healthy and safe

Maximise the value of our assets,

products and businesses

Embrace diversity

of thought

Employees are engaged advocates for

our brands and products

Move toward a lower

carbon future

Be New Zealand’s most

loved brand

Our STRATEGY: to maximise value through our market position

Wholesale Market

Maximising value from our Generation & Fuels

Portfolio as we transition to a lower carbon future

Retail Market

Engaging customers through loyalty as we innovate

to a data-driven future

We’re performing while transforming towards a new energy future

Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 30.

Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 31.
Engaging customers through loyalty as we innovateto a data-driven future

Energy managementproducts and services differentiates us from our competitors

Action

Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 32.
Customer Lifetime

Value up 12

%

, from

FY17

Residential

Dual Fuel customers

up 11

%

, from FY17

Digital customer

interactions up 41

%

in one year

Cost to Serve

down 7

%

, in one

year

A product-led strategy is coming to life

Investment in loyaltyproducts, data platforms and algorithmfueled innovation is reducing churn and driving

value

Castle Hill Wind Farm consents held as
possible future development


Waipipiwind farm PPA to add 450 GWh

of new renewables, displacing c. 20% of

our remaining thermal baseload


Maximising portfolio value as NZ transitions to a low carbon future

Economically displace baseload thermal

with renewable generation

Future-Gen, transitioning our generation portfolio

Progressing

PPA Wind

Considering

PPA Solar

Considering PPA

Geothermal

Considering

future swaptions

Creating fuel and

plant flexibility

Investing in carbon

offsets

Enhance the value of our flexible thermal

in an increasingly renewable market

Drylands afforestation partnership to

create cost effective carbon abatement

for emissions


Consents held to replace retired Rankine

units with new open cycle gas turbines


Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 33.

New Zealand’s unique seasonal demand gap requires thermal back-up
Demand is highest in winter, when southern inflows are the lowest

Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 34.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

Solar Monthly Total (GWh)

Monthly Totals (GWh)

Seasonal Storage Challenge

South Island InflowNational DemandSolar Generation (per 1000MW Installed)

Thermal flexes with demand and hydro variability

5 TWh

of thermal flexibility needed

Contact

377 MW gas fired generation + 155MW diesel

Nova/Todd

109 MW gas fired generation

Genesis

400 MW CCGT (High efficiency & flexible)

500 MW dual fuel Rankine units

48 MW OCGT

Few major thermal generators remain

Contact Energy 377 MW CCGT

life extension decision due early

2020 (c. $80m)

1500MW+ of thermal generation retired since 2008

Genesis Energy

500 MW Rankine recertification

required 2022

Genesis is well positioned to provideflexible energy as NZ transitions
Increased wind penetration will shift the role of hydro, but seasonal flexibility still required

Energy ResourceImpact of transition on value

Baseload / non-dispatchable•Wind generation increases as costs decline, new builds cap value

Daily flexibility

•Growing solar and wind penetration increases demand for day/night flexibility

•Batteries, EVs and demand response could meet future needs

Weekly flexibility

•Growing wind penetration increases demand for multi-day flexibility

•Shift in role of hydro from baseload to firming

Seasonal flexibility

•Continued dominance of hydro and increased renewable penetration increase demand for

seasonal flexibility

•Lack of viable technology alternatives to provide dry year support

Limited value

opportunity

Some value

opportunity

Strong value

opportunity

Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 35.

Underpinning our work is our sustainability framework, aligned
with UN Sustainable Development Goals

Our people are engaged and diverse in experience and

thought, fuelling innovative customer solutions

Sustainability at Genesis means caring for the environment, supporting our people to succeed and building strong

communities while powering New Zealand towards a positive, sustainable future

Enabling a more sustainable future

Genesis gender

Pay Equity Gap

now just

1.6%,with

women making up

45%of total

workforce

Greater than 20

disclosed

ethnicities

represented in

total workforce

Our employee

engagement score

is now 71%, up

12 points on the

prior year

Caring for our environment

Building strong communities

Powering New Zealand

•Whioduck re-establishment, 143% increase in population

since 2011

•Genesis vehicle fleet conversion underway to EVs, 100% of

light vehicles by 2020, 50% of heavy vehicle fleet by 2025

•Genesis School-gen initiative has engaged over 1,000 schools,

with a new School-gen Trust established

•Established partnerships with local iwi are valued and highly

significant to Genesis

•WaipipiWind Farm off-take agreement for 450GWh per

annum from 2021, off-setting 250,000 tonnes of carbon

•DrylandCarbonlaunched in March 2019, a Joint venture

focused on securing forestry generated New Zealand Units

(NZU) carbon credits

Genesis Energy Limited Investor Roadshow November 2019 36.

FY19 Results at a glance
Genesis Energy Limited FY19 Full Year Result Presentation 38.

1

Both gross and net churn is expressed on the basis of a 12 month rolling average.

2

Installation Connection Point (ICP), a connection point that is both occupied and has not been disconnected.

3

Netback is defined as Retail EBITDAF by fuel type plus respective fuel purchase cost divided by total fuel sales volumes, statedin native fuel units and

excluding corporate allocation costs.

Balance SheetFY19
($m)

FY18

($m)

Variance

Cash and Cash Equivalents61.949.3

Other Current Assets416.4339.4

Non-Current Assets4,154.23,838.8

Total Assets4,632.54,227.5+9.6%

Total Borrowings1,289.81,255.4

Other Liabilities1,191.91,015.7

Total Equity2,150.81,956.4+9.9%

AdjustedNet Debt1,186.21,182.9

Gearing per bank Covenants30.6%32.5%

EBITDAF InterestCover6.5x6.4x

Net Debt/EBITDAF

2

3.0x3.0x

Income StatementFY19

($m)

FY18

($m)

Variance

Revenue2,700.72,302.5+17.3%

Total Operating Expenses(2,337.3)(1,942.1)+20.3%

EBITDAF363.4360.4+0.8%

Depreciation, Depletion & Amortisation(196.5)(205.7)

Impairment of Non-Current Assets(7.0)(0.4)

Revaluation of Generation Assets4.6(48.8)

FairValue Change(15.2)(3.1)

Share of Associate(0.2)-

Other Gains (Losses)7.3(0.7)

Earnings Before Interest & Tax156.4101.7+53.8%

Interest(73.3)(74.3)

Tax(23.9)(7.7)

Net Profit After Tax59.219.7+200.5%

Earnings Per Share (cps)5.841.97

Stay inBusiness Capital Expenditure64.650.8+27.5%

Free Cash Flow (FCF)

1

175.7189.8(7.4%)

Dividends Per Share (cps)17.0516.9+0.9%

Dividends Declared as a % ofFCF99.0%89.4%+10.4 ppt

Cash Flow SummaryFY19

($m)

FY18

($m)

Variance

($m)

Net Operating Cash Flow301.4330.6

Net Investing Cash Flow(92.7)(82.2)

Net FinancingCash Flow(196.1)(226.9)

Net Increase (Decrease)in Cash12.621.5(41.4%)

Financial statements

1

Free cash flow (FCF) represents EBITDAF less cash tax paid, net interest and stay in business capital expenditure. This is a change in methodology from FY17 with tax paid replacing an adjusted tax calculation. All

historical information has been restated to the new measure.

2

Standard and Poor’s make a number of adjustments to Net Debt and EBITDAF for the purpose of calculating credit metrics. The most significant of these is the 50% equity treatment attributed to the Capital Bonds.

Genesis Energy Limited FY19 Full Year Result Presentation 39.

Debt InformationFY19
($m)

FY18

($m)

Variance

Total Debt$1,289.81,255.4

Cash and Cash Equivalents$ 61.949.3

Headline Net Debt$1,227.91,206.1+1.8%

USPPFX and FV Adjustments$41.723.2

AdjustedNet Debt

1

$1,186.21,182.9+0.3%

Headline Gearing37.5%39.1%(1.6 ppts)

AdjustedGearing36.7%38.6%(1.9 ppts)

Covenant Gearing30.6%32.5%(1.8 ppts)

Net Debt/EBITDAF

2

3.0x3.0x

Interest Cover6.5x6.4x

Average InterestRate5.8%5.8%

Average Debt Tenure11.9 yrs11.4 yrs

1

Net debt has been adjusted for foreign currency translation and fair value movements

related to USD denominated borrowings which have been fully hedged with cross

currency swaps.

2

Standard and Poor’s make a number of adjustments to Net Debt and EBITDAF for the

purpose of calculating credit metrics. The most significant of these is the 50% equity

treatment attributed to the Capital Bonds.

GENESIS DEBT PROFILE

Diversified funding profile

The $240m of Capital Bonds maturing in FY 2049 were issued on 16 July 2018 following a successful

capital raising in June 2018. $200m of existing Capital Bonds were redeemed at the same time.

Genesis Energy Limited FY19 Full Year Result Presentation 40.

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26FY27FY47FY49

$m

Retailable BondsWholesale DomesticDrawn Bank

Undrawn BankCapital BondsUSPP

Retail Key InformationFY19FY18Variance
EBITDAF ($ millions)122.5109.7+11.7%

Customers with > 1 Fuel117,138109,710+6.8%

ElectricityOnly Customers328,415341,546

Gas Only Customers16,54917,823

LPG Only Customers34,18135,124

Total Customers496,283504,203(1.6%)

Total Electricity, Gas & LPG ICP’s675,056672,240+0.4%

VolumeWeighted Average Electricity

Selling Price –Resi ($/MWh)

$255.82$252.26+1.4%

VolumeWeighted Average Electricity

Selling Price –SME ($/MWh)

$221.17$216.66+2.1%

VolumeWeighted Average Electricity

Selling Price –C&I ($/MWh)

$128.71$121.46+6.0%

Volume WeightedAverage Gas Selling

Price –($/GJ)

$18.97$19.45(2.5%)

Volume WeightedAverage LPG Selling

Price –($/t)

$1,807.7$1,773.3(1.9%)

Retail Cost to Serve per ICP140.62151.38(7.1%)

Operational metrics

Genesis Energy Limited FY19 Full Year Result Presentation 41.

Retail Key InformationFY19FY18Variance

Customer Electricity Sales (GWh)6,0675,980+1.5%

Customer Gas Sales (PJ)8.27.5+9.3%

Customer LPG Sales (tonnes)38,50735,005+10.0%

Electricity Netback ($/MWh)$104.93$100.28+4.6%

Gas Netback ($/GJ)$9.10$8.67+5.0%

LPG Netback ($/t)$835.95$767.47+8.9%

Retail Netback

1

by Segment & FuelFY17FY18FY19

Residential -Electricity ($/MWh)$117.4$111.9$116.3

Residential -Gas ($/GJ)$10.8$10.7$11.4

Residential -LPG ($/tonne)N/A$788.2$765.3

SME -Electricity ($/MWh)$101.8$100.9$105.9

SME -Gas ($/GJ)$9.1$9.2$9.6

SME -LPG ($/tonne)N/A$821.5$997.5

C&I -Electricity ($/MWh)$78.1$80.1$87.3

C&I -Gas ($/GJ)$7.2$6.9$7.2

C&I -LPG ($/tonne)N/A$590.3$769.3

Operational metrics
Genesis Energy Limited FY19 Full Year Result Presentation 42.

WholesaleKey InformationFY19FY18Variance

EBITDAF ($ millions)177.6178.0(0.2%)

Renewable Generation (GWh)2,8343,056(7.3%)

Thermal Generation (GWh)3,9874,049(1.5%)

Total Generation (GWh)6,8217,105(4.0%)

GWAP ($/MWh)$143.42$91.59+56.6%

Electricity Purchases –Retail (GWh)6,3956,298+1.5%

LWAP ($/MWh)$139.01$92.08+51.0%

LWAP/GWAP Ratio97%101%(4 ppts)

Electricity CFD Purchases (GWh)2,2552,023+11.4%

Electricity CFD Sales (GWh)2,4752,711(8.7%)

Coal/GasMix (Rankines only)88/1263/37

Gas Used in Internal Generation (PJ)20.226.7(24.3%)

Coal Used in Internal Generation (PJ)15.97.6+109.2%

Weighted Average Gas Burn Cost ($/GJ)$8.69$8.02+8.4%

Weighted Average Coal Burn Cost ($/GJ)$6.33$5.44+16.3%

Weighted AverageThermal Fuel Cost

($/MWh)

$73.78$66.53+10.9%

Weighted AveragePortfolio Fuel Cost

($/MWh)

$43.13$37.91+13.8%

1

FY19 remaining reserves include FY18 production of 36.7 PJe, and represent a 1% increase in

total reserves in FY19 (4.6 PJe).

KupeKey InformationFY19FY18Variance

EBITDAF ($m)108.8115.3(5.6%)

Field Production (PJ)25.725.5+0.8%

Genesis Gas Sales (PJ)11.412.1(5.8%)

Genesis Oil Sales (kbbl)441533(17.3%)

Genesis LPG Sales (kt)50.746.1+10.0%

Oil Production Yield (bbl/TJ)40.045.3(11.7%)

LPG Production Yield (t/TJ)4.33.9+10.3%

Remaining Kupe Reserves (2P, PJe)

1

319.0351.1+4.6PJe

AverageBrent Crude Oil (USD/bbl)$69$64+7.8%

Realised Oil Price(NZD/bbl)$88$80+10.0%

Genesis Energy Limited FY19 Full Year Result Presentation 43.
Genesis’ share register

90-day average trading volume of 550,000 shares equates to NZD1.75m per day, or approximately USD1.1m

51%

35%

6%

6%

2%

HOLDER BY GEOGRAPHY

CrownNew ZealandAustraliaNorth AmericaRest of World

51%

19%

30%

HOLDER BY TYPE

CrownInstitutionalRetail

51%

5%

10%

34%

SUM OF REGISTER HOLDING BY %

Crown2-3%1-2%<1%

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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