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Global Dairy Update June 2020

Operational Update30 June 2020FSFConsumer Staples

•Home shopping promotion nets big gains in South Korea.
1

Global Dairy

UPDATE

• New Zealand ends

season with increased

monthly production. Australia's recent

production improvement continues. EU

production growth slows and US declines.

•New Zealand monthly exports decline and

Australia exports soften. Monthly increase

from US and EU.

•Latin America, Asia and Middle East and Africa

imports have strong decline. China monthly

imports soften.

•Fonterra’s New Zealand milk collection for the

season ended 31 May 2020 was 1,517 million

kgMS, down 0.4% on prior season.


F

onterra Australia milk collection decreased

12.4% to 101 million kgMS for the season to

31 May 2020.


Dr Jeremy Hill awarded Queen’s Birthday honours.

Key Dates

31 July 2020

End of Financial Year 2020

September 2020

FY20 Annual Results

Announcement

20 April 2021

Compliance Date for

2020/21 Season

JUNE 2020

%
%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for May 2020

compared to May 2019

Change for May 2020

compared to May 2019

Change for April 2020

compared to April 2019

Change for April 2020

compared to April 2019

Change for the 12 months

to May 2020

Change for the 12 months

to May 2020

Change for the 12 months

to April 2020

Change for the 12 months

to April 2020

1.16.44.3

2.30.91.2

0.2

0.4

2

OUR MARKETS

Global Production

New Zealand ends season

with increased monthly

production. Australia's

recent production

improvement continues. EU

production growth slows

and US declines

New Zealand milk

production¹ increased 4.3%

on a litres basis (up 3.8%

on milk solids basis) in May

compared to May last year.

Following months of drought

and lower milk production,

May production improved on

the back of more favourable

weather conditions.

Full season New Zealand

milk production for the 12

months to May was 0.4%

lower than last year.

Fonterra collections are

reported for May, see page 5

for details.

Australia milk

production increased 6.4%

in April compared to April

last year.

Better seasonal conditions and

improved farmer confidence

contributed to the continuing

production recovery in the

second part of the season,

especially in Victoria

and Tasmania.

Production for the 12 months

to April was down 2.3 % on the

previous 12 months.

Dairy Australia has moderated

its outlook for 2019–20

production upwards, to a drop

of just 1-3% on last year.

Fonterra collections in

Australia are reported for May,

see page 5 for details.

EU (including UK) milk

production increased by

0.2% in April compared to

the same period last year.

The main production

regions showed slower

growth. Increases can be

seen in Ireland (up 3.5%),

Spain (2.3%) and the

Netherlands (1.7%), but

largely offset by a sharp drop

in Italy (down 2.1%) and the

UK (1.6%).

EU milk production for the

12 months to April was up by

0.9% compared to the same

period last year.

US milk production

decreased by 1.1% in May,

compared to the same

period last year.

US milk production declined

year-on-year for the month

of May, as production

restriction programmes were

put in place. Reduced rations,

lower frequency of milking

and, to a lesser extent, cow

culling were observed to

reduce output.

Milk production for the 12

months to May was 1.2%

higher compared to the

same period last year.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNION/UKUSA

To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.

Note: 2020 production numbers include one extra day of production in February as 2020 is a leap year.

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

Global Exports

New Zealand monthly

exports decline and

Australia exports soften.

Monthly increase from US

and EU

Total New Zealand

dairy exports decreased

by 4.4%, or 13,444  MT,

in April compared to the

same period last year, albeit

to a lesser extent than

last month.

This was primarily driven

by decreased demand for

cheese (down 6,288 MT) to

China and Japan, butter to

Egypt and Australia (down

4,196 MT) and fluid milk

products to Taiwan and the

Philippines (down 2,890 MT).

Exports for the 12 months to

April were down by 1.0%, or

34,427 MT, on the previous

comparable period. This was

primarily driven by butter

and AMF.

EU (including UK) dairy

exports increased by

2.3%, or 11,667 MT, in March

compared to the same

period last year. This was

mainly driven by increased

whey to China, butter and

cheese to the US, up a

combined 29,317 MT, and

partially offset by a decrease

in SMP exports to China,

Egypt and Asia of 24,496  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to March were up 5.8%, or

317,396 MT, on the previous

comparable period. Fluid

milk products, butter and

cheese were the main

drivers of this growth, up a

combined 248,922  MT.

US dairy exports

increased 7.1%, or 13,584  MT,

in April compared to the

same period last year,

bouncing back from the past

two months.

Exports increased to South

East Asia and China offsetting

a drop in exports to Mexico on

the back of a lower peso and

weaker Mexican economy.

The increase was driven by

S M P, WPC and lactose, up a

combined 17,410 MT, partially

offset by lower exports of

cheese, down 6,157  MT.

Exports for the 12 months to

April 2020 were up 2.1%, or

48,569 MT on the previous

comparable period driven by

SMP, WPC and lactose, up

a combined 95,297 MT and

partially offset by decreases in

whey, down 40,451  MT.

Australia dairy exports

increased by 1.9%, or

1,244 MT, in April compared

to the same period last year.

This was primarily driven by

fluid milk products and SMP,

up a combined 4,311  MT,

but partially offset by lower

demand for cheese, down

1,807  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to April were down 7.1%, or

55,677 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

Declines were recorded

across a broad range of

products with SMP, infant

formula, whey, cheese, butter

and WMP down 81,330 MT

and partially offset by fluid

milk products, up 29,922  MT.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNION/UKUSA

%

%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for April 2020

compared to April 2019

Change for April 2020

compared to April 2019

Change for April 2020

compared to April 2019

Change for March 2020

compared to March 2019

Change for the 12 months

to April 2020

Change for the 12 months

to April 2020

Change for the 12 months

to April 2020

Change for the 12 months

to March 2020

7.11.94.4

7.15.82.1

2.3

1.0

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

Global Imports

Latin America, Asia and

Middle East and Africa

imports have strong

decline. China monthly

imports soften

Latin America dairy

import volumes¹ decreased

10.9%, or 18,209 MT, in March

compared to the same period

last year. This was driven by

continued lower demand for

SMP from Mexico, and for

WMP from Cuba, Brazil and

El Salvador, down a combined

17,287  MT.

Imports for the 12 months

to March 2020 were

down 2.8%, or 54,407  MT,

compared to the same period

the previous year.

Decreases were driven

primarily by WMP, infant

formula, whey and SMP, down

a combined 81,415 MT but

largely offset by increases in

WPC, up 18,957  MT.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 11. 2% or 51,626  MT,

in March compared to March

last year. Decreases were

recorded primarily in SMP

to the Philippines, Pakistan

and Bangladesh, fluid milk

products to the Philippines

and WMP to Sri Lanka and

Hong Kong, down a combined

48,031  MT.

Imports for the 12 months to

March were down 2.9%, or

139,989 MT, compared to the

same period the previous year.

Decreases were recorded

across SMP, WMP, fluid

products and whey, down a

combined 149,494 MT, offset

by increased cheese and

lactose, up 29,155  MT.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 11. 7%, or

46,431 MT, in March 2020

compared to the same

period last year. Decreases

were recorded principally in

fluid milk product to Libya,

infant formula to Nigeria

and butter to Turkey, down a

combined 44,422  MT.

Imports for the 12 months

to March 2020 were

down 3.5%, or 143,989  MT,

compared to the same

period last year. This was

driven by large decreases

in fluid milk products and

WMP, down a combined

154,634  MT.

China dairy import

volumes increased by

2.1%, or 5,584 MT, in April

compared to the same

period last year. The sharp

increase in year-on-year

imports seen in March

has eased.

The increase was the result

of higher volumes of WMP,

whey, and infant formula, up

a combined 20,060 MT, and

partially offset by a decrease

in fluid milk products of

11, 307  MT.

Imports for the 12 months to

April were up 5.6%, driven by

fluid milk products and WMP.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%

%

%%%

%%

Change for March 2020

compared to March 2019

Change for April 2020

compared to April 2019

Change for March 2020

compared to March 2019

Change for March 2020

compared to March 2019

Change for the 12 months

to March 2020

Change for the 12 months

to March 2020

Change for the 12 months

to March 2020

2.1

11.210.9

2.93.5

%

Change for the 12 months

to April 2020

5.6

11.7

2.8

To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%

%

%%

%%%

Season to date

1 July to 31 May

For the 2019/20 Season

compared to the previous season

For the 2019/20 Season

compared to the previous season

For the 2019/20 Season

compared to the previous season

Change for May 2020

compared to May 2019

Change for May 2020

compared to May 2019

Change for May 2020

compared to May 2019

Change for May 2020

compared to May 2019

5.36.93.52.1

12.42.12.10.4

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY

















5

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Milk Collection 2019/20 Season

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

New Zealand Milk Collection

Fonterra's Australia

collection in May was

7.7 million kgMS, a 5.3%

decrease on May last year. For

the month, farm milk collection

was up on last year, while

third-party milk was down.

Season-to-date collection

reached 100.9 million kgMS,

down 12.4% on the same

period last season. Fonterra

milk collections have been

impacted by the highly

competitive milk supply market

which has seen losses primarily

to milk brokers. Fonterra

Australia has also made a

conscious decision to purchase

less third-party milk to focus on

a value-add product mix.

North Island milk collection

partially recovered in May

relative to past months as

weather conditions became

more favourable and drought

conditions eased, ending at

30 million kgMS, down 3.5%

on last May.

Full season collection for the

North Island was 874.6 million

kgMS, down 2.1% on

last season.

South Island milk collection

in May was 39.9 million kgMS,

up 6.9% on last May, with

good conditions through

much of the month.

Full season collection for the

South Island was 642.5 million

kgMS, up 2.1% on last season.

Fonterra's New Zealand

collection for the 2019/20

season was 1,517 million kgMS,

down 0.4% on last season.

Fonterra's collection in May,

was 69.9 million kgMS, up

2.1% on the same month last

season. May brought rain

across the country, with some

of the heavier falls across

northern areas where it was

very dry.

Forecast milk collection

for the 2020/21 season is

1,525 million kgMS.

%

%%
%%%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

JUN JUN FEB JUN OCT FEB OCT







,

, 

.

.

.

.

.

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity prices and New Zealand

dollar trend

Indicators of global and

domestic economic

activity started to show

improvement by late May,

and into June, as many

nations moved to relax

their COVID-19 lock-

down measures.

Financial markets were

encouraged that the worst

of the economic shock

may be behind us – the

New Zealand dollar peaked

above 65 US cents on this

more sanguine outlook.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

16 June 2020:

The next trading event will be held on 7 July 2020. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

2.7

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

3,009

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

20.7

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 3,631/MT

3.1

CHEDDAR

USD 3,993/MT

0.8

AMF

USD 2,829/MT

2.5

WMP

USD 3,597/MT

0.9

BUTTER

USD 2,629/MT

3.9

SMP

20,686

MT

LATEST AUCTION

640,236

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
Our Performance

Home Shopping

promotion nets big

gains in South Korea

A Daesang campaign

supported by Fonterra

Medical and Healthy Aging

Functional Nutrition Unit has

scored US$1 million in sales

in just 60 minutes on a home

shopping TV channel... and

there’s more to come.

50,000 cans sold out at a

rate of around US$17,000 a

minute and the TV session

broke a sales record.

The product is called Pasture

Raised/Grass fed Protein.

This was the first time

New Zealand provenance

was put on centre stage

on the prime time home

shopping channel (Lotte) and

three key value propositions

in Grass Fed, Made with

NZMP and Made with

NZ Dairy captured the

South Korean audience.

As a result of the successful

promotion our customer,

Daesang, will do more Home

Shopping segments and

increase their offline and

online channel presence.

Daesang is one of the

leading producers of dairy

nutrition products in

South Korea. They have

been happy to promote

our concept formulation

in their own Ready To Mix

powdered beverage.

A lot of people think

home shopping is really

old-fashioned, but in

countries like South Korea

it's still very popular. It's a

fast-moving platform, with

products ordered arriving

on the same day. With 87

reviews on the product, the

current rating is 97 out of

100 based on price, taste,

packaging and delivery.

Our Co-op
8

Dr Jeremy Hill awarded

Queen’s Birthday

honours

When Fonterra’s Chief

Science & Technology

Officer, Dr Jeremy Hill heard

he was being recognised

on the Queen’s Birthday

Honours list, he didn’t quite

believe it.

“It was a shock at first, it’s

not something you usually

consider. To be one of the

lucky few recognised is truly

an honour and my family

is very proud,” says Jeremy,

who has been made a

Member of the New Zealand

Order of Merit for services

to the dairy industry and

scientific research.

“It was a nice piece of news

to share with my parents

who live in the UK. It was

a real boost for them, and

Mum was especially chuffed.

I don’t think there is a

neighbour on her street that

she hasn’t already told!”

Starting his PHD in medical

research at Hull University in

the 1980s, Jeremy was keen

to travel and learn so he

jumped at the opportunity to

study at Massey University in

Palmerston North.

This role opened doors, but

it was only the start. He

was studying liver function

at the time, directly across

the road from the Dairy

Research Institute.

One morning over a cup of

tea, a director of the Dairy

Research Institute offered

Jeremy a job.

“I will never forget it,

someone said to me that

I should start turning

right instead of left in

the morning.

“I thought I would go over

for a couple of years... fast

forward and it's now been

over 30 years working

in dairy.”

That decision to turn right

and take on the research

role led Jeremy down a path

to being internationally

recognised for his work in

dairy science, sustainability

and nutrition.

In 2007, Jeremy was

appointed Fonterra’s Chief

Science and Technology

Officer, where he works

across process and product

development, food assurance

and regulatory, among

other areas.

“It has always been satisfying

to work on challenging

scientific problems that can

make a big difference to the

business and our customers.”

A highlight of his career

has been working with

universities, science and

government sectors,

including his involvement

in New Zealand’s single

biggest Research and

Development programme,

the Transformational

Dairy Platform – a joint

industry and Government

funded programme under

the Primary Growth

partnership that has helped

commercialise a significant

number of Fonterra’s leading

products and technologies.

He has also been the only

New Zealander to hold the

positions of President and

Chair of the International

Dairy Federation (IDF) in its

117-year history.

“I was very proud of my time

with IDF, from being made

an honouree life member

through to brokering the

FAO/Global Dairy Industry

Declaration of Rotterdam

in 2016.”

This was essentially a

blueprint for sustainable,

environmentally aware

future dairy production

and nutrition.

Appointed in 2018 as

the Adjunct Professor,

Sustainable Nutrition, Riddet

Institute, Massey University,

Jeremy is passionate about

dairy innovation.

“A real theme to my work is

researching the true facts.

From nutrition and the role

dairy plays, and how our

Co-operative is a leader in

this, through to helping with

our carbon footprint.”

Providing support and advice

over the years, he loves the

varied and fulfilling role he

has within the Co-op.

“I have the best job in our

Co-op, I really think I do,” but

he adds it would be nothing

without the support from his

family and the people that

have worked alongside him.

“It has been humbling to

receive well wishes, from

people in the government

and ag sector, as well my

colleagues within the Co-op.

“I’ve come to reflect on the

connections I have made

here in New Zealand and

across the globe. I’ve been

fortunate to work alongside

talented people.”

Jeremy is excited to continue

contributing to dairy

innovation and the scientific

research that really matters

and is still publishing two to

three pieces a year.

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES













,

EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s













AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT 

MT s

















AVERAGE

9


Supplementary Information

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to April; New Zealand and US to May.

NOTE: Data for EU to March; New Zealand, Australia and US to April.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Latin America and Middle East & Africa to March; China to April.

SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR

JAN

OCT FEB

JUL AUG MAY

SEP NOV DEC JUN


,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD  MT

10


Supplementary Information

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

M AY

2020

M AY


2019

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2019/20

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2018/19

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

69.968.42.1%1,517.11,522.7(0.4%)

North Island30.031. 1(3.5%)874.6893.3(2.1%)

South Island39.937.36.9%642.5629.52.1%

Fonterra Australia7.78.25.3%100.9115.2(12.4%)

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(16 JUNE 2020)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2019)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

20,686640,236

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

(12.5%)1.9%

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

3,0093,271

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

(8.3%)5.9%

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

2.7%–

Fonterra GDT results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

11
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products, except

for Reference Products,

produced by the NZ

Ingredients business.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.


Glossary

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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    2020-04-29

    • Fonterra and YFood partnership. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • New Zealand monthly production down. Australia, EU and US production up. • New Zealand and Australia monthly exports decline. Increase in monthly exports from the US and EU. • China records decline for first two…”