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Global Dairy Update February 2021

Operational Update25 February 2021FSFConsumer Staples

• Report confirms NZ milk has the world’s lowest carbon
footprint.

1

Global Dairy

UPDATE

• New Zealand production in line with last 12

months and annual production up in other

regions.

• New Zealand and US monthly exports down.

Australia and EU exports increase.

• China monthly imports steadily increase.

LATAM monthly imports up and Middle East

and Africa and Asia imports down.

• Fonterra’s season-to date New Zealand milk

collection was 1,071 million kgMS at the end of

January, down 0.8% on prior season.

• Fonterra Australia Milk collection for January

was 9.7 million kgMS, an increase of 4.5%

compared to last season.

• Fonterra joins forces with Royal DSM to lower carbon

footprint.

Key Dates

17 March 2021

FY21 Interim Results

Announcement

20 April 2021

Compliance Date for

2020/21 Season

May 2021

FY21 Q3 Business Update

FEBRUARY 2021

%
%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for January 2021

compared to January 2020

Change for January 2021

compared to January 2020

Change for December 2020

compared to December 2019

Change for December 2020

compared to December 2019

Change for the 12 months to

January 2021

Change for the 12 months to

January 2021

Change for the 12 months to

December 2020

Change for the 12 months to

December 2020

1.62.00.8

2.81.02.2

0.3

0.6

2

OUR MARKETS

Global Production

Production in New Zealand

in line with last 12 months

and annual production up in

other regions

New Zealand milk

production¹ increased

0.8% on a litres basis in

January compared to January

last year.

Mild conditions across the

country with varied rainfall

resulted in lower than

average soil moisture levels

for most of the North Island.

New Zealand milk

production for the 12 months

to January was 0.6% higher

than last year.

Fonterra collections are

reported for January, see

page 5 for details.

Australia milk

production was down 2%

in December compared to

December last year.

Smaller milk pools resulting

from reduced herd sizes

and a drop-in farm numbers

continue to constrain milk

production growth.

Dairy Australia expects milk

production to track towards

the lower end of the current

1% to 3% growth range for

2020/21.

Australia milk production for

the 12 months to December

was 2.8% higher than last year.

Fonterra collections in

Australia are reported for

January, see page 5 for details.

EU (including UK) milk

production increased by

0.3% in December compared

to the same period last year.

Increases were observed

in Italy (+5.3%), Ireland

(+4.6%), Poland (+1.2%) and

UK (+1.0%) and offset by

continuing declines in France

and Germany.

EU milk production for the

12 months to December was

up by 1.0% compared to the

same period last year.

US milk production

increased by 1.6% in January,

compared to the same

period last year.

US production continues to

increase driven by higher

milk per cow yields and herd

size. This follows months of

sustained growth albeit at a

slower pace to prior months.

Milk production for the 12

months to January was 2.2%

higher compared to the

same period last year.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNION/UKUSA

To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.

Note: 2020 production numbers include one extra day of production in February as 2020 was a leap year.

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

Global Exports

New Zealand and US

monthly exports down.

Australia and EU exports

increase

Total New Zealand dairy

exports decreased by 7.9%

or 33,119 MT, in December

compared to the same

period last year.

The decrease in exports

was driven mainly by lower

volumes of WMP and SMP

down a combined 30,810

MT. The decrease was the

result of the production and

shipment profile of WMP

which had peak shipments in

November. This was partially

offset by an increase in

cheese, up 4,377 MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to December were down by

2.8%, or 100,293 MT, on the

previous comparable period.

This was primarily driven by

butter, SMP, infant formula

and fluid milk products.

EU (including UK) dairy

exports increased by 5.6%,

or 25,054MT, in November

compared to the same

period last year.

November saw increased

shipment of fluid milk

product to China and cheese

to the United States and

Japan.

Exports for the 12 months to

November were up 3.3%, or

188,115 MT, on the previous

comparable period. Fluid

milk products, cheese, whey,

butter and WMP were the

main drivers of this growth,

up a combined 326,298 MT.

It was partially offset by a

large decline in SMP down

156,160 MT.

US dairy exports

decreased 1.0%, or 2,020 MT,

in December compared to the

same period last year.

The decrease was led by lower

shipments of SMP as a result

of disruptive shipping and

logistical issues. Demand for

whey to China partially offset

the decrease, with continued

high demand attributable to

recovering hog herds.

Exports for the 12 months

to December 2020 were up

10.2%, or 232,571 MT on the

previous comparable period,

driven by SMP, whey and WPC

combined 223,492 MT.

Australia dairy exports

increased by 25.4%, or 15,983

MT, in December compared

to the same period last year

which was lower than usual.

The increase was also driven

by higher demand from

China in fluid milk products

and SMP up a combined

13,877 MT.

Exports for the 12 months to

December were up 0.8%, or

5,666 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was led by increases in

fluid milk products, lactose

and whey but partially offset

by declines in infant formula

and cheese.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNION/UKUSA

%%%

%%%

Change for December 2020

compared to December 2019

Change for December 2020

compared to December 2019

Change for December 2020

compared to December 2019

Change for November 2020

compared to November 2019

Change for the 12 months to

December 2020

Change for the 12 months to

December 2020

Change for the 12 months to

December 2020

Change for the 12 months to

November 2020

1.025.47.9

0.83.310.2

5.6

2.8

%

%

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

Global Imports

China monthly imports

steadily increase. LATAM

monthly imports up and

Middle East and Africa and

Asia imports down

Latin America dairy

import volumes¹ increased

13.4%, or 18,706 MT, in

November compared to the

same period the previous

year.

This was driven by higher

volumes of SMP to Mexico

and higher shipments of

WMP to Brazil and Cuba.

Imports for the 12 months

to November were flat

compared to the same period

the previous year.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 4.9% or 20,187 MT,

in November compared to the

same period the previous year.

Decreases were recorded in

SMP to South East Asia and

Japan, WMP to Hong Kong

and whey to Pakistan.

Imports for the 12 months to

November were down 3.5 %, or

172,820 MT, compared to the

same period the previous year.

Decreases were recorded

across WMP, SMP, fluid

products and whey down a

combined 224,800 MT and

offset partially by increased

volumes in lactose, up 47,068

MT.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 12.0% or 36,597

MT in November 2020

compared to the same period

the previous year.

Decreases were driven

principally by lower volumes

of fluid milk products to

Kenya, SMP to Egypt and

infant formula to Nigeria.

Imports for the 12 months to

November were down 3.9%,

or 154,992 MT, compared to

November the previous year,

driven by decreases in fluid

milk products, infant formula,

butter and cheese and

partially offset by increases in

SMP and WMP.

China dairy import

volumes increased by 18.6%

or 51,204MT, in December

compared to the same period

the previous year.

Volumes of fluid milk

products from Germany,

New Zealand and Poland

increased 42,031 MT as strong

consumption persisted. Whey

imports were also up 14,726

MT, primarily from the US as

China is rebuilding its hog

herd and using whey as feed.

WMP imports from New

Zealand, Ukraine and Spain

declined year on year.

Imports for the 12 months to

December were up 10.9% or

343,567 MT, driven by whey,

fluid milk products, butter

and lactose.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%

%

%%

%

%

Change for November 2020

compared to November 2019

Change for December 2020

compared to December 2019

Change for November 2020

compared to November 2019

Change for November 2020

compared to November 2019

Change for the 12 months to

November 2020

Change for the 12 months to

November 2020

Change for the 12 months to

November 2020

18.6

4.913.4

3.53.9

%

Change for the 12 months to

December 2020

10.9

12.0

0.0

%

To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%

%%

%

Season to date

1 July to 31 January

Season to date

1 June to 31 January

Season to date

1 June to 31 January

Season to date

1 June to 31 January

Change for January 2021

compared to January 2020

Change for January 2021

compared to January 2020

Change for January 2021

compared to January 2020

Change for January 2021

compared to January 2020

4.52.10.00.9

1.31.20.50.8

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY



















5

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Milk Collection

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

New Zealand Milk Collection

Fonterra's Australia

collection

in January was 9.7

million kgMS, a 4.5% increase

on January last season driven

by Victoria and Tasmania.

Despite favourable seasonal

conditions post peak in

Victoria and Tasmania,

reduced herd numbers

combined with increased

consumption of lower quality

home-grown fodder instead

of supplementary feed are

constraining milk production

growth across Australia.

Season to date collections are

down 1.3% on last year.

North Island milk

collection in January was 96

million kgMS, the same as

January last season.

Season to date collection

was 656.8 million kgMS,

0.5% behind last season.

Collections in northern

North Island regions

were adversely impacted

by prolonged dry spells,

whereas the lower North

Island collections were more

stable.

South Island milk

collection in January was 72.3

million kgMS, 2.1% behind on

January last season.

Season to date collection

was 414.3 million kgMS, 1.2%

behind on last season.

The warm and dry conditions

adversely impacted pasture

growth for the first half of the

month. Good pasture growth

returned with favourable

growing conditions later

in the month, resulting in

an uptick in collections as

January came to a close.

Fonterra's New Zealand

collection for January was

168.2 million kgMS, 0.9%

lower than the same month

last season.

Season to date collection

was 1,071.1 million kgMS,

0.8% behind last season.

After an unsettled start to

January in some regions,

warm and dry weather set in

across much of the country

mid-month. Record high

temperatures were observed

in eastern areas, particularly

in the South Island which

constrained milk collections.

%

%

%%

Forecast milk collection for the

2020/21 season

1, 52 5M

kgMS

Outlook

Forecast Fonterra

Milk Collection

Across New Zealand

To view more information,
including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

FEB SEP FEB

APR

JUL

SEP

DEC

FEB

APR JUL NOV






,

, 

, 

.

.

.

.

.

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity

prices and New

Zealand dollar trend

The NZD remained

supported during the

first two months of 2021

trading in a narrow range

between 71 and 73 US cents;

underpinned by robust

commodity prices, improving

domestic economic data, and

a lift in longer term interest

rates.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

16 February 2021:

The next trading event will be held on 2 March 2021. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

3.7

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

3,793

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

25.8

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

%

USD 3,262/MT

0.3

SMP

%

USD 3,615/MT

4.6

WMP

%

USD 5,129/MT

2.0

BUTTER

%

USD 4,268/MT

2.1

CHEDDAR

%

USD 5,527/MT

1.2

AMF

25,763

MT

LATEST AUCTION

440,826

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
Report confirms NZ milk

has the world’s lowest

carbon footprint.

A new analysis

released

confirms New

Zealand dairy

farms have the

lowest carbon

footprint in the

world.

The report from

AgResearch,

commissioned

by DairyNZ

compares New

Zealand with 17

other countries.

It confirms

our footprint

is 70% lower

than the global

average and

46% lower than

the average of

other countries

in the study,

which includes

all major milk

producers.

“This is the

result of our

unique pasture-

based farming

here in New

Zealand and the hard graft

of our farmers, which as

an employee of the Co-

op makes me feel pretty

proud,” says Director On-

Farm Excellence, Charlotte

Rutherford.

“We’ve seen consumers

become increasingly

interested in the carbon

footprint of their products,

and today’s report confirms

we’re well placed to meet

people’s desire for food

that’s kinder to the planet.

“We know more needs to be

done to keep improving and

we’re up for the challenge.”

That’s why innovation is

a key part of the Co-op’s

strategy and why Fonterra

has multiple partnerships

to develop the tools and

solutions needed to support

farmers, particularly in

areas where they face tough

challenges, such as reducing

methane emissions.

Charlotte says “one of

the keys to helping guide

farmers to continuously

improve is ensuring they

understand their emissions

profiles.

“Last year all our farmers

received a greenhouse gas

emission report specific

to their farms. It’s a very

practical step toward

helping New Zealand

meet climate change

commitments.”

But finding a solution

requires more than just

hard graft from the Co-op’s

farmers and solutions like

Kowbucha™, seaweed and

feed additives are being

investigated for potential

breakthroughs in reducing

emissions from cows.

Fonterra has also teamed up

with Nestlé and DairyNZ to

expand a promising plantain

trial to help improve

waterways and reduce on-

farm greenhouse gas (GHG)

emissions.

Our Performance

Our Co-op
8

Fonterra joins forces

with DSM to lower

carbon footprint

Fonterra and Royal DSM,

a global science-based

company active in health,

nutrition and sustainable

living, are teaming up to

work on reducing on-farm

greenhouse gas (GHG)

emissions in New Zealand.

While the organisations have

a long-standing working

relationship, the new

collaboration is based around

DSM’s feed additive product

Bovaer®, which effectively

and consistently reduces

methane emissions from

cows by over 30 percent in

non-pasture-based farming

systems.

The question that needs

answering now is: Can it do

the same in New Zealand’s

pasture-based farming

systems?

While New Zealand dairy

farms are acknowledged as

having the lowest carbon

footprint in the world among

major milk producers,

Fonterra recognises that

biological emissions

produced by cows are a

major contributor to the

country’s overall emissions

and is working to do

whatever it can to find ways

to reduce them.

Fonterra Group Director

Farm Source Richard Allen

says that finding a solution

to the methane challenge

requires more than just

the hard graft farmers are

putting in.

“We need to find a

breakthrough in reducing

emissions from cows and

Bovaer® could provide

exactly that. This work

with DSM is an exciting

opportunity for the Co-op.”

Fonterra Chief Science &

Technology Officer, Prof.

Jeremy Hill, says the Co-op

wants to explore and validate

how Bovaer® could work

here in New Zealand, where

cows are predominantly fed

grass.

“We also see this as an

opportunity to further

accelerate our global

leadership in low-carbon

dairy products to create

more value for our New

Zealand milk.”

“Fonterra is working closely

with DSM New Zealand to

ensure that any innovation is

well tested and can easily be

distributed and used by our

farmers.”

Mark van Nieuwland, global

programme head for DSM

Nutritional Products says

they are proud to be in

collaboration with Fonterra.

“Both companies have

worked together for many

years, and it’s a pleasure to

extend this to the field of

sustainability and climate

change,” he says.

“With Fonterra, we have

an important partner to

potentially commercialise

Bovaer® in New Zealand

and globally. We look forward

to combining our expertise

and passion.”

Bovaer® was featured by the

World Resources Institute

as one of the ten global

break-through technologies

that could help to feed the

world sustainably and if trials

prove successful, it could

help continue New Zealand’s

leadership role in low carbon

dairy production.

About DSM – Bright

Science. Brighter Living.™

Royal DSM is a global,

purpose-led, science-based

company active in Nutrition,

Health and Sustainable

Living. DSM’s purpose is

to create brighter lives for

all. DSM addresses with

its products and solutions

some of the world’s

biggest challenges while

simultaneously creating

economic, environmental

and societal value for all its

stakeholders – customers,

employees, shareholders,

and society at large. DSM

delivers innovative solutions

for human nutrition,

animal nutrition, personal

care and aroma, medical

devices, green products

and applications, and new

mobility and connectivity.

DSM and its associated

companies deliver annual

net sales of about €10

billion with approximately

23,000 employees. The

company was founded

in 1902 and is listed on

Euronext Amsterdam. More

information can be found at

www.dsm.com.

About Bovaer®

Bovaer® is a feed

additive for cows (and

other ruminants, such as

sheep, goats, and deer)

researched and developed

over 10 years by DSM.

Just a quarter teaspoon of

Bovaer® per cow per day

reduces enteric methane

emission by approximately

30% in non-pasture-

based farming. The feed

additive Bovaer® therefore

contributes to a significant

and immediate reduction of

the environmental footprint

of meat, milk and dairy

products.

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEUUK

DEC JUL JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES













,

EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEUUK

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s

















AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT 

MT s















AVERAGE

9


Supplementary Information

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU/UK and Australia to December; New Zealand and US to January.

NOTE: Data for EU/UK to November; New Zealand, Australia and US to December.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa and Latin America to November; China to December.

SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.

Update y-axes if needed, bring in updated image
X-axis labels already updated

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD

APR

MAR

JAN OCT

FEB JUL

AUG

MAY

SEP

NOV

DEC JUN

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD  MT

10


Supplementary Information

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

JANUARY

2021

JANUARY


2020

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2020/21

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2019/20

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

168.2169.8(0.9%)1,071.11,079.5(0.8%)

North Island96.096.00.0%656.8660.3(0.5%)

South Island72.373.8(2.1%)414.3419.2(1.2%)

Australia9.79.34.5%68.769.6(1.3%)

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(16 FEBRUARY 2021)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2020)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

25,763440,826

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

(5.9%)(8.3%)

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

3,7933,265

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

18.4%(2.9%)

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

3.7%–

Fonterra GDT results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

11
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

MENA

Middle East – North Africa.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products, except

for Reference Products,

produced by the NZ

Ingredients business.

NZMP

New Zealand Milk Products.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.


Glossary

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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