Global Dairy Update February 2021
• Report confirms NZ milk has the world’s lowest carbon
footprint.
1
Global Dairy
UPDATE
• New Zealand production in line with last 12
months and annual production up in other
regions.
• New Zealand and US monthly exports down.
Australia and EU exports increase.
• China monthly imports steadily increase.
LATAM monthly imports up and Middle East
and Africa and Asia imports down.
• Fonterra’s season-to date New Zealand milk
collection was 1,071 million kgMS at the end of
January, down 0.8% on prior season.
• Fonterra Australia Milk collection for January
was 9.7 million kgMS, an increase of 4.5%
compared to last season.
• Fonterra joins forces with Royal DSM to lower carbon
footprint.
Key Dates
17 March 2021
FY21 Interim Results
Announcement
20 April 2021
Compliance Date for
2020/21 Season
May 2021
FY21 Q3 Business Update
FEBRUARY 2021
%
%
%%
%
%
%%
Change for January 2021
compared to January 2020
Change for January 2021
compared to January 2020
Change for December 2020
compared to December 2019
Change for December 2020
compared to December 2019
Change for the 12 months to
January 2021
Change for the 12 months to
January 2021
Change for the 12 months to
December 2020
Change for the 12 months to
December 2020
1.62.00.8
2.81.02.2
0.3
0.6
2
OUR MARKETS
Global Production
Production in New Zealand
in line with last 12 months
and annual production up in
other regions
New Zealand milk
production¹ increased
0.8% on a litres basis in
January compared to January
last year.
Mild conditions across the
country with varied rainfall
resulted in lower than
average soil moisture levels
for most of the North Island.
New Zealand milk
production for the 12 months
to January was 0.6% higher
than last year.
Fonterra collections are
reported for January, see
page 5 for details.
Australia milk
production was down 2%
in December compared to
December last year.
Smaller milk pools resulting
from reduced herd sizes
and a drop-in farm numbers
continue to constrain milk
production growth.
Dairy Australia expects milk
production to track towards
the lower end of the current
1% to 3% growth range for
2020/21.
Australia milk production for
the 12 months to December
was 2.8% higher than last year.
Fonterra collections in
Australia are reported for
January, see page 5 for details.
EU (including UK) milk
production increased by
0.3% in December compared
to the same period last year.
Increases were observed
in Italy (+5.3%), Ireland
(+4.6%), Poland (+1.2%) and
UK (+1.0%) and offset by
continuing declines in France
and Germany.
EU milk production for the
12 months to December was
up by 1.0% compared to the
same period last year.
US milk production
increased by 1.6% in January,
compared to the same
period last year.
US production continues to
increase driven by higher
milk per cow yields and herd
size. This follows months of
sustained growth albeit at a
slower pace to prior months.
Milk production for the 12
months to January was 2.2%
higher compared to the
same period last year.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNION/UKUSA
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in production –
1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.
Note: 2020 production numbers include one extra day of production in February as 2020 was a leap year.
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in exports –
3
OUR MARKETS
Global Exports
New Zealand and US
monthly exports down.
Australia and EU exports
increase
Total New Zealand dairy
exports decreased by 7.9%
or 33,119 MT, in December
compared to the same
period last year.
The decrease in exports
was driven mainly by lower
volumes of WMP and SMP
down a combined 30,810
MT. The decrease was the
result of the production and
shipment profile of WMP
which had peak shipments in
November. This was partially
offset by an increase in
cheese, up 4,377 MT.
Exports for the 12 months
to December were down by
2.8%, or 100,293 MT, on the
previous comparable period.
This was primarily driven by
butter, SMP, infant formula
and fluid milk products.
EU (including UK) dairy
exports increased by 5.6%,
or 25,054MT, in November
compared to the same
period last year.
November saw increased
shipment of fluid milk
product to China and cheese
to the United States and
Japan.
Exports for the 12 months to
November were up 3.3%, or
188,115 MT, on the previous
comparable period. Fluid
milk products, cheese, whey,
butter and WMP were the
main drivers of this growth,
up a combined 326,298 MT.
It was partially offset by a
large decline in SMP down
156,160 MT.
US dairy exports
decreased 1.0%, or 2,020 MT,
in December compared to the
same period last year.
The decrease was led by lower
shipments of SMP as a result
of disruptive shipping and
logistical issues. Demand for
whey to China partially offset
the decrease, with continued
high demand attributable to
recovering hog herds.
Exports for the 12 months
to December 2020 were up
10.2%, or 232,571 MT on the
previous comparable period,
driven by SMP, whey and WPC
combined 223,492 MT.
Australia dairy exports
increased by 25.4%, or 15,983
MT, in December compared
to the same period last year
which was lower than usual.
The increase was also driven
by higher demand from
China in fluid milk products
and SMP up a combined
13,877 MT.
Exports for the 12 months to
December were up 0.8%, or
5,666 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was led by increases in
fluid milk products, lactose
and whey but partially offset
by declines in infant formula
and cheese.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNION/UKUSA
%%%
%%%
Change for December 2020
compared to December 2019
Change for December 2020
compared to December 2019
Change for December 2020
compared to December 2019
Change for November 2020
compared to November 2019
Change for the 12 months to
December 2020
Change for the 12 months to
December 2020
Change for the 12 months to
December 2020
Change for the 12 months to
November 2020
1.025.47.9
0.83.310.2
5.6
2.8
%
%
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in imports –
4
OUR MARKETS
Global Imports
China monthly imports
steadily increase. LATAM
monthly imports up and
Middle East and Africa and
Asia imports down
Latin America dairy
import volumes¹ increased
13.4%, or 18,706 MT, in
November compared to the
same period the previous
year.
This was driven by higher
volumes of SMP to Mexico
and higher shipments of
WMP to Brazil and Cuba.
Imports for the 12 months
to November were flat
compared to the same period
the previous year.
Asia (excluding China)
dairy import volumes¹
decreased 4.9% or 20,187 MT,
in November compared to the
same period the previous year.
Decreases were recorded in
SMP to South East Asia and
Japan, WMP to Hong Kong
and whey to Pakistan.
Imports for the 12 months to
November were down 3.5 %, or
172,820 MT, compared to the
same period the previous year.
Decreases were recorded
across WMP, SMP, fluid
products and whey down a
combined 224,800 MT and
offset partially by increased
volumes in lactose, up 47,068
MT.
Middle East and Africa
dairy import volumes¹
decreased 12.0% or 36,597
MT in November 2020
compared to the same period
the previous year.
Decreases were driven
principally by lower volumes
of fluid milk products to
Kenya, SMP to Egypt and
infant formula to Nigeria.
Imports for the 12 months to
November were down 3.9%,
or 154,992 MT, compared to
November the previous year,
driven by decreases in fluid
milk products, infant formula,
butter and cheese and
partially offset by increases in
SMP and WMP.
China dairy import
volumes increased by 18.6%
or 51,204MT, in December
compared to the same period
the previous year.
Volumes of fluid milk
products from Germany,
New Zealand and Poland
increased 42,031 MT as strong
consumption persisted. Whey
imports were also up 14,726
MT, primarily from the US as
China is rebuilding its hog
herd and using whey as feed.
WMP imports from New
Zealand, Ukraine and Spain
declined year on year.
Imports for the 12 months to
December were up 10.9% or
343,567 MT, driven by whey,
fluid milk products, butter
and lactose.
LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA
1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.
%
%
%%
%
%
Change for November 2020
compared to November 2019
Change for December 2020
compared to December 2019
Change for November 2020
compared to November 2019
Change for November 2020
compared to November 2019
Change for the 12 months to
November 2020
Change for the 12 months to
November 2020
Change for the 12 months to
November 2020
18.6
4.913.4
3.53.9
%
Change for the 12 months to
December 2020
10.9
12.0
0.0
%
To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New
Zealand and Australia compared
to the previous season –
%
%%
%
Season to date
1 July to 31 January
Season to date
1 June to 31 January
Season to date
1 June to 31 January
Season to date
1 June to 31 January
Change for January 2021
compared to January 2020
Change for January 2021
compared to January 2020
Change for January 2021
compared to January 2020
Change for January 2021
compared to January 2020
4.52.10.00.9
1.31.20.50.8
VOLUME M LITRESDAY
JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
5
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Milk Collection
NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA
New Zealand Milk Collection
Fonterra's Australia
collection
in January was 9.7
million kgMS, a 4.5% increase
on January last season driven
by Victoria and Tasmania.
Despite favourable seasonal
conditions post peak in
Victoria and Tasmania,
reduced herd numbers
combined with increased
consumption of lower quality
home-grown fodder instead
of supplementary feed are
constraining milk production
growth across Australia.
Season to date collections are
down 1.3% on last year.
North Island milk
collection in January was 96
million kgMS, the same as
January last season.
Season to date collection
was 656.8 million kgMS,
0.5% behind last season.
Collections in northern
North Island regions
were adversely impacted
by prolonged dry spells,
whereas the lower North
Island collections were more
stable.
South Island milk
collection in January was 72.3
million kgMS, 2.1% behind on
January last season.
Season to date collection
was 414.3 million kgMS, 1.2%
behind on last season.
The warm and dry conditions
adversely impacted pasture
growth for the first half of the
month. Good pasture growth
returned with favourable
growing conditions later
in the month, resulting in
an uptick in collections as
January came to a close.
Fonterra's New Zealand
collection for January was
168.2 million kgMS, 0.9%
lower than the same month
last season.
Season to date collection
was 1,071.1 million kgMS,
0.8% behind last season.
After an unsettled start to
January in some regions,
warm and dry weather set in
across much of the country
mid-month. Record high
temperatures were observed
in eastern areas, particularly
in the South Island which
constrained milk collections.
%
%
%%
Forecast milk collection for the
2020/21 season
1, 52 5M
kgMS
Outlook
Forecast Fonterra
Milk Collection
Across New Zealand
To view more information,
including a snapshot of the
rolling year-to-date results –
%
6
GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE
FEB SEP FEB
APR
JUL
SEP
DEC
FEB
APR JUL NOV
,
,
,
.
.
.
.
.
PRICE INDEX
NZD USD
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results
Fonterra GDT sales
by destination:
Dairy commodity
prices and New
Zealand dollar trend
The NZD remained
supported during the
first two months of 2021
trading in a narrow range
between 71 and 73 US cents;
underpinned by robust
commodity prices, improving
domestic economic data, and
a lift in longer term interest
rates.
Fonterra GDT results at
last trading event
16 February 2021:
The next trading event will be held on 2 March 2021. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.
Change in Fonterra’s
weighted average product
price from previous event
3.7
Fonterra’s weighted
average product price
(USD/MT)
3,793
USD
Fonterra product quantity
sold on GDT
000’ MT
25.8
NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)
SOUTH EAST ASIA
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
OTHER
%
USD 3,262/MT
0.3
SMP
%
USD 3,615/MT
4.6
WMP
%
USD 5,129/MT
2.0
BUTTER
%
USD 4,268/MT
2.1
CHEDDAR
%
USD 5,527/MT
1.2
AMF
25,763
MT
LATEST AUCTION
440,826
MT
FINANCIAL
YEAR‑TO‑DATE
7
Report confirms NZ milk
has the world’s lowest
carbon footprint.
A new analysis
released
confirms New
Zealand dairy
farms have the
lowest carbon
footprint in the
world.
The report from
AgResearch,
commissioned
by DairyNZ
compares New
Zealand with 17
other countries.
It confirms
our footprint
is 70% lower
than the global
average and
46% lower than
the average of
other countries
in the study,
which includes
all major milk
producers.
“This is the
result of our
unique pasture-
based farming
here in New
Zealand and the hard graft
of our farmers, which as
an employee of the Co-
op makes me feel pretty
proud,” says Director On-
Farm Excellence, Charlotte
Rutherford.
“We’ve seen consumers
become increasingly
interested in the carbon
footprint of their products,
and today’s report confirms
we’re well placed to meet
people’s desire for food
that’s kinder to the planet.
“We know more needs to be
done to keep improving and
we’re up for the challenge.”
That’s why innovation is
a key part of the Co-op’s
strategy and why Fonterra
has multiple partnerships
to develop the tools and
solutions needed to support
farmers, particularly in
areas where they face tough
challenges, such as reducing
methane emissions.
Charlotte says “one of
the keys to helping guide
farmers to continuously
improve is ensuring they
understand their emissions
profiles.
“Last year all our farmers
received a greenhouse gas
emission report specific
to their farms. It’s a very
practical step toward
helping New Zealand
meet climate change
commitments.”
But finding a solution
requires more than just
hard graft from the Co-op’s
farmers and solutions like
Kowbucha™, seaweed and
feed additives are being
investigated for potential
breakthroughs in reducing
emissions from cows.
Fonterra has also teamed up
with Nestlé and DairyNZ to
expand a promising plantain
trial to help improve
waterways and reduce on-
farm greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions.
Our Performance
Our Co-op
8
Fonterra joins forces
with DSM to lower
carbon footprint
Fonterra and Royal DSM,
a global science-based
company active in health,
nutrition and sustainable
living, are teaming up to
work on reducing on-farm
greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions in New Zealand.
While the organisations have
a long-standing working
relationship, the new
collaboration is based around
DSM’s feed additive product
Bovaer®, which effectively
and consistently reduces
methane emissions from
cows by over 30 percent in
non-pasture-based farming
systems.
The question that needs
answering now is: Can it do
the same in New Zealand’s
pasture-based farming
systems?
While New Zealand dairy
farms are acknowledged as
having the lowest carbon
footprint in the world among
major milk producers,
Fonterra recognises that
biological emissions
produced by cows are a
major contributor to the
country’s overall emissions
and is working to do
whatever it can to find ways
to reduce them.
Fonterra Group Director
Farm Source Richard Allen
says that finding a solution
to the methane challenge
requires more than just
the hard graft farmers are
putting in.
“We need to find a
breakthrough in reducing
emissions from cows and
Bovaer® could provide
exactly that. This work
with DSM is an exciting
opportunity for the Co-op.”
Fonterra Chief Science &
Technology Officer, Prof.
Jeremy Hill, says the Co-op
wants to explore and validate
how Bovaer® could work
here in New Zealand, where
cows are predominantly fed
grass.
“We also see this as an
opportunity to further
accelerate our global
leadership in low-carbon
dairy products to create
more value for our New
Zealand milk.”
“Fonterra is working closely
with DSM New Zealand to
ensure that any innovation is
well tested and can easily be
distributed and used by our
farmers.”
Mark van Nieuwland, global
programme head for DSM
Nutritional Products says
they are proud to be in
collaboration with Fonterra.
“Both companies have
worked together for many
years, and it’s a pleasure to
extend this to the field of
sustainability and climate
change,” he says.
“With Fonterra, we have
an important partner to
potentially commercialise
Bovaer® in New Zealand
and globally. We look forward
to combining our expertise
and passion.”
Bovaer® was featured by the
World Resources Institute
as one of the ten global
break-through technologies
that could help to feed the
world sustainably and if trials
prove successful, it could
help continue New Zealand’s
leadership role in low carbon
dairy production.
About DSM – Bright
Science. Brighter Living.™
Royal DSM is a global,
purpose-led, science-based
company active in Nutrition,
Health and Sustainable
Living. DSM’s purpose is
to create brighter lives for
all. DSM addresses with
its products and solutions
some of the world’s
biggest challenges while
simultaneously creating
economic, environmental
and societal value for all its
stakeholders – customers,
employees, shareholders,
and society at large. DSM
delivers innovative solutions
for human nutrition,
animal nutrition, personal
care and aroma, medical
devices, green products
and applications, and new
mobility and connectivity.
DSM and its associated
companies deliver annual
net sales of about €10
billion with approximately
23,000 employees. The
company was founded
in 1902 and is listed on
Euronext Amsterdam. More
information can be found at
www.dsm.com.
About Bovaer®
Bovaer® is a feed
additive for cows (and
other ruminants, such as
sheep, goats, and deer)
researched and developed
over 10 years by DSM.
Just a quarter teaspoon of
Bovaer® per cow per day
reduces enteric methane
emission by approximately
30% in non-pasture-
based farming. The feed
additive Bovaer® therefore
contributes to a significant
and immediate reduction of
the environmental footprint
of meat, milk and dairy
products.
PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEUUK
DEC JUL JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR
LIQUID MILK M LITRES
,
EXPORTS
AUSTRALIA
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEUUK
AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY
MT s
AVERAGE
IMPORTS
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA
ASIACHINA
SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT
MT s
AVERAGE
9
Supplementary Information
Global Dairy Market
The charts on the right
illustrate the year-on-year
changes in imports, exports
and production for a range of
countries that are important
players in global dairy trade.
The absolute size of
the bars represents the
change in imports, exports
or production, relative
to the same period the
previous year.
Averages are shown where
data is complete for the
regions presented.
NOTE: Data for EU/UK and Australia to December; New Zealand and US to January.
NOTE: Data for EU/UK to November; New Zealand, Australia and US to December.
NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa and Latin America to November; China to December.
SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.
Update y-axes if needed, bring in updated image
X-axis labels already updated
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR
MAR
JAN OCT
FEB JUL
AUG
MAY
SEP
NOV
DEC JUN
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD MT
10
Supplementary Information
Fonterra milk
production
The table on the right
shows Fonterra milk solids
collected in New Zealand
and Australia compared
to the previous season.
MILK COLLECTION
(MILLION KGMS)
JANUARY
2021
JANUARY
2020
MONTHLY
CHANGE
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2020/21
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2019/20
SEASON-
TO-DATE
CHANGE
Total Fonterra
New Zealand
168.2169.8(0.9%)1,071.11,079.5(0.8%)
North Island96.096.00.0%656.8660.3(0.5%)
South Island72.373.8(2.1%)414.3419.2(1.2%)
Australia9.79.34.5%68.769.6(1.3%)
Fonterra GDT results
This table provides more
information on the latest
results, including a snapshot
of the year-to-date results.
LAST TRADING EVENT
(16 FEBRUARY 2021)
YEAR-TO-DATE
(FROM 1 AUGUST 2020)
Quantity Sold on GDT
(Winning MT)
25,763440,826
Change in Quantity Sold on GDT
over same period last year
(5.9%)(8.3%)
Weighted Average Product Price
(USD/MT)
3,7933,265
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price over same period
last year
18.4%(2.9%)
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price from previous event
3.7%–
Fonterra GDT results
This chart shows Fonterra
GDT prices and volumes over
the past 12 months.
11
AMF
Anhydrous Milk Fat.
BMP
Butter Milk Powder.
DIRA
Dairy Industry Restructuring
Act 2001 (New Zealand).
Farmgate Milk Price
The price for milk supplied in
New Zealand to Fonterra by
farmer shareholders.
Fluid Products
The Fonterra grouping
of fluid milk products
(skim milk, whole milk
and cream – pasteurised
or UHT processed),
concentrated milk products
(evaporated milk and
sweetened condensed milk)
and yoghurt.
GDT
Global Dairy Trade, the
online provider of the twice
monthly global auctions of
dairy ingredients.
kgMS
Kilogram of milk solids, the
measure of the amount of
fat and protein in the milk
supplied to Fonterra.
MENA
Middle East – North Africa.
MPC
Milk Protein Concentrate.
Non-Reference Products
All dairy products, except
for Reference Products,
produced by the NZ
Ingredients business.
NZMP
New Zealand Milk Products.
Reference Products
The dairy products used
in the calculation of the
Farmgate Milk Price, which
are currently WMP, SMP,
BMP, butter and AMF.
Glossary
Season
New Zealand: A period
of 12 months to 31 May
in each year.
Australia: A period of
12 months to 30 June
in each year.
SMP
Skim Milk Powder.
WMP
Whole Milk Powder.
WPC
Whey Protein Concentrate
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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