Global Dairy Update April 2021
• Coal not in Fonterra’s future.
1
Global Dairy
UPDATE
• Increase in New Zealand monthly production.
US monthly production up, EU and
Australia down.
• New Zealand, Australia and US exports
show strong monthly growth. EU monthly
exports down.
• China monthly imports continue to grow.
Latin America, Middle East and Africa and Asia
monthly imports down.
• Fonterra's New Zealand milk collection for
March was 138.2 million kgMS, up 7.9% on
March last season. March season-to-date
collection was in line with last season, up 0.4%.
• Forecast Fonterra milk collection for the
2020/21 season increased to 1,535m kgMS
from 1,525m kgMS.
• Fonterra’s Australia collection for March was
8.1 million kgMS, a 1.6% increase compared to
last season.
• Tanker trailer trial.
Key Dates
26 May 2021
FY21 Q3 Business Update
1 June 2021
Start of the 2021/22 Season
31 July 2021
End of Financial Year 2021
September 2021
FY21 Annual Results
Announcement
APRIL 2021
%
%
%%
%
%
%%
Change for March 2021
compared to March 2020
Change for March 2021
compared to March 2020
Change for February 2021
compared to February 2020
Change for February 2021
compared to February 2020
Change for the 12 months to
March 2021
Change for the 12 months to
March 2021
Change for the 12 months to
February 2021
Change for the 12 months to
February 2021
1.80.89.8
2.40.21.6
3.8
1.7
2
OUR MARKETS
Global Production
Increase in New Zealand
monthly production. US
monthly production up, EU
and Australia down
New Zealand milk
production¹ increased 9.8%
on a litres basis in March
compared to March last year,
despite drier than average
conditions across most of the
country. Warm temperatures
and above average rainfall
in central North Island
have contributed to the
production growth in March.
New Zealand milk
production for the 12 months
to March was 1.7% higher
than the comparable period
last year.
Fonterra collections are
reported for March, see
page 5 for details.
Australia milk
production was down 0.8%
in February compared to
February last year.²
Labour challenges,
reduced herd size and
farm exits continue to
constrain production.
Despite favourable
early season production
conditions, Dairy Australia
reduced its milk production
forecast from 1% to 3%
growth to (1)% to 1% growth
for the 2020/21 season.
Fonterra collections in
Australia are reported for
March, see page 5 for details.
EU milk production³
decreased by 3.8% in
February compared to the
same period last year.²
Decreases were observed
across most EU countries,
particularly in Germany
(down 2.4%), France (down
2.6%) and Netherlands
(down 1.9%).
EU milk production for the
12 months to February was
up by 0.2% compared to the
same period last year, driven
by higher volumes from
Ireland, Poland and Belgium.
US milk production
increased by 1.8% in
March, compared to the
same period last year, and
marks a total production
monthly record for March of
8.7 billion litres.
US milk production
continues to be driven by
herd size expansion and
higher milk per cow yield.
March marked the highest
monthly milk production
per cow on record, up 1% on
March last year.
Milk production for the
12 months to March was
1.6% higher compared to the
same period last year.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in production –
1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.
2 February 2020 production numbers include one extra day as 2020 was a leap year.
3 Excludes UK.
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in exports –
3
OUR MARKETS
Global Exports
New Zealand, Australia
and US exports show
strong monthly growth.
EU monthly exports down
Total New Zealand
dairy exports increased
by 20.9%, or 61,795 MT, in
March compared to the
same period last year, the
highest March volume
on record.
The increase was driven by
higher volumes of WMP, fluid
milk products and cheese
to China, up a combined
54,639 MT in March.
Exports for the 12 months to
March were up by 1.6%, or
53,481 MT, on the previous
comparable period. This was
primarily driven by WMP
and fluid milk products
but partially offset by
decreases in SMP, butter and
infant formula.
EU dairy exports¹
decreased by 8.6%, or
50,036 MT, in January
compared to the same
period last year. January
saw decreased shipments
of cheese to the US due to
ongoing retaliatory tariffs
and reduced volumes of
cultured products and infant
formula to China.
Exports for the 12 months
to January were up 2.8%, or
194,866 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
Fluid milk products, whey
and lactose were the main
drivers of this growth, up
a combined 286,082 MT.
This was partially offset by a
large decline in SMP, down
90,714 MT.
US dairy exports
increased 12.7%, or
23,950 MT, in February
compared to the same
period last year.²
The increase was led by SMP,
with the strongest February
on record, up 16,642 MT, and
driven by higher volumes
to Mexico, South East Asia,
China and Pakistan, plus
continued high demand for
whey from China.
Exports for the 12 months
to February 2021 were up
8.8%, or 204,875 MT, on
the previous comparable
period, driven by SMP, whey
and WPC, up a combined
217,497 MT.
Australia dairy exports
increased by 39.9%, or
21,292 MT, in February
compared to the same
period last year, which was
lower than normal.²
The increase was driven
by higher demand from
China for SMP, up 9,525 MT,
and fluid milk products, up
5,233 MT.
Exports for the 12 months to
February were up 6.6%, or
48,261 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was predominantly
driven by increases in fluid
milk products but partially
offset by declines in infant
formula, cheese and WMP.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
%%%
%%%
Change for March 2021
compared to March 2020
Change for February 2021
compared to February 2020
Change for February 2021
compared to February 2020
Change for January 2021
compared to January 2020
Change for the 12 months to
March 2021
Change for the 12 months to
February 2021
Change for the 12 months to
February 2021
Change for the 12 months to
January 2021
12.739.920.9
6.62.88.8
8.6
1.6
%
%
1 Excludes UK.2 February 2020 numbers include one extra day as 2020 was a leap year.
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in imports –
4
OUR MARKETS
Global Imports
China monthly imports
continue to grow.
Latin America, Middle
East and Africa and Asia
monthly imports down
Latin America dairy
import volumes¹
decreased 4.5%, or 7,028 MT,
in January compared to the
same period last year.
The decrease was driven
by lower imports of whey,
lactose and MPC and MPI
to Mexico ,and WMP to
Colombia. This was partially
offset by higher volumes of
fluid milk product, cheese
and SMP.
Imports for the 12 months
to January were up 0.5%
compared to the same
period the last year.
Asia (excluding China)
dairy import volumes¹
decreased 0.8% or 2,984 MT,
in January compared to last
January. The decrease was
driven by lower volumes
of WMP, predominately to
Vietnam, Thailand, Sri Lanka
and Bangladesh, down
14,205 MT. This was partially
offset by higher volumes of
fluid milk products, MPC
and butter.
Imports for the 12 months
to January were down 2.5 %,
or 122,965 MT, compared to
the same period last year.
Decreases were recorded
across WMP, SMP, whey and
butter, down a combined
178,375 MT, partially offset by
increased volumes of lactose
and cheese, up 61,524 MT.
Middle East and Africa
dairy import volumes¹
decreased 19.0%, or
62,732 MT, in January 2021
compared to the same period
last year.
The decrease was driven
predominantly by WMP
and SMP to Algeria, Nigeria
and Saudi Arabia, down a
combined 47,037 MT.
Imports for the 12 months
to January were down 2.3%,
or 87,951 MT, compared to
January last year, driven
by decreases in fluid milk
products and butter and
partially offset by increases in
SMP and WMP.
China dairy import
volumes increased by
24.6%, or 77,646 MT, in
February compared to the
same period last year.
The increased volumes were
led by fluid milk products, up
35%, driven by New Zealand,
Germany and Poland, plus
whey, up 24%, driven by
the US.
Imports for the 12 months to
February were up 16.1%, or
508,067 MT, driven by whey,
fluid milk products, SMP
and lactose.
LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA
1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.
%
%
%%
%
Change for January 2021
compared to January 2020
Change for February 2021
compared to February 2020
Change for January 2021
compared to January 2020
Change for January 2021
compared to January 2020
Change for the 12 months to
January 2021
Change for the 12 months to
January 2021
Change for the 12 months to
January 2021
24.6
0.84.5
2.52.3
%
Change for the 12 months to
February 2021
16.1
19.0
0.5
%
%
To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New
Zealand and Australia compared
to the previous season –
%
%%%
%
Season to date
1 July to 31 March
Season to date
1 June to 31 March
Season to date
1 June to 31 March
Season to date
1 June to 31 March
Change for March 2021
compared to March 2020
Change for March 2021
compared to March 2020
Change for March 2021
compared to March 2020
Change for March 2021
compared to March 2020
1.61.717.77.9
1.41.31.50.4
VOLUME M LITRESDAY
JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
5
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Milk Collection
NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA
New Zealand Milk Collection
Fonterra's Australia
collection in March was
8.1 million kgMS, a 1.6% increase
on March last season.
Favourable autumn conditions
across Victoria and Tasmania
have stabilised milk production.
Lower herd numbers combined
with increased consumption
of lower quality home-grown
fodder instead of supplementary
feed are continuing to impact
milk production growth
across Australia.
Season-to-date collections were
down 1.4% on last year.
North Island milk collection
in March was 74.7 million
kgMS, 17.7% higher than March
last season.
Season-to-date collection was
805.4 million kgMS, 1.5% ahead
of last season.
Collections in March were
strong off the back of late
February rain allowing good
pasture growth in March.
Although up significantly on the
same month last year, March
2020 collections were low due
to very dry conditions.
South Island milk collection
in March was 63.4 million kgMS,
behind 1.7% on March
last season.
Season-to-date collection was
540.3 million kgMS, 1.3% behind
last season.
The north of the South Island
saw close to average
temperatures for March, while
the rest of the island was above
average. Other than the West
Coast, rainfall for the South
Island was below average.
South Island collections were
down on March 2020, but
close to average for this time of
the season.
Fonterra's New Zealand
collection for March was
138.2 million kgMS, 7.9% higher
than the same month last
season, driven by North Island
collections.
Season-to-date collection was
1,345.8 million kgMS, 0.4%
higher than last season.
Most regions had good levels
of supplementary feed on hand
from good conditions earlier
in the season and late rain in
February in the North Island
benefitted production in March.
March was drier than average
across the north and east of
both islands, with soil moisture
levels by the end of March being
below normal for the time of
year across many regions.
%%%
Forecast Fonterra milk collection
for the 2020/21 season
from 1,525m kgMS
1, 5 3 5M
kgMS
Outlook for
New Zealand
%%%
%%
To view more information,
including a snapshot of the
rolling year-to-date results –
%
6
GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE
APR
NOV
APR
JUN
SEP
NOV
FEB APR JUN
SEP
FEB
,
,
,
.
.
.
.
.
PRICE INDEX
NZD USD
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results
Fonterra GDT sales
by destination:
Dairy commodity
prices and New
Zealand dollar trend
The NZD/USD exchange rate
declined late in March and into
early April driven by broad USD
strength, as the US economy
improved, and as reaction to
the NZ Government’s housing
policy actions placed downward
pressure on the NZD. However,
toward month end the NZD had
recovered to 72 US cents.
Fonterra GDT results at
last trading event
20 April 2021:
The next trading event will be held on 4 May 2021. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.
Change in Fonterra’s
weighted average product
price from previous event
0.4
Fonterra’s weighted
average product price
(USD/MT)
4,161
USD
Fonterra product quantity
sold on GDT
000’ MT
24.1
NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)
SOUTH EAST ASIA
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
OTHER
USD 6,003/MT
3.3
AMF
USD 4,436/MT
1.0
CHEDDAR
USD 3,404/MT
0.1
SMP
USD 4,097/MT
0.3
WMP
USD 5,736/MT
0.7
BUTTER
24,122
MT
LATEST AUCTION
538,851
MT
FINANCIAL
YEAR‑TO‑DATE
7
Our Performance
Coal not in
Fonterra’s future
Fonterra has been working
on its transition to renewable
energy for some time and
says it can, and will, get out
of coal, with a couple of
practical constraints.
Nine of its 29 sites use coal
and Chief Operating Officer
Fraser Whineray says there’s
been a lot of progress over
the last few years to get the
Co-op to a position where it
can make this commitment.
“With customers in more
than 140 countries we have
global insights and long-term
trends supporting these
actions, which have been in
progress for some time.
“Last year we achieved
our target of a 20 per cent
reduction in energy intensity
from a 2003 baseline
after making thousands
of improvements across
sites here in New Zealand.
Lifting energy efficiency is
a valuable pre-requisite to
larger investments.
“More recently we reduced
the total quantity of coal we
use by 10 per cent when we
converted our Te Awamutu
site to burn wood pellets
and this builds on our
experience from converting
our Brightwater site in 2018
to co-fire on wood biomass.”
Conversion or
replacement of existing
coal boilers to renewable
energy is a significant,
logistical, technical and
financial undertaking.
“We’ve built a lot of
capability in-house and with
partners in New Zealand
and internationally and
this provides us with
comfort that solutions
are sustainable.
“It’s important to us that
New Zealand continues
to be at the forefront of
sustainable food production
– and getting out of coal
is one way we can help
with this.
“We already have the lowest
carbon footprint among
major milk producers around
the world and we want to
continue to build on this
competitive advantage,”
says Whineray.
“While we’re working on
this transition, we need to
make sure we can deliver
on our customers’ needs
and process our farmer
owners’ milk. There is only
a small window between
each milking season when
we can undertake the
necessary engineering work
to make key changes on the
remaining sites.
“We’ll also need to make
sure we can get the
right specialist skills and
equipment into the country
at the right time, beyond the
extensive local capabilities.
And we’ll need to have a
secure gas supply for our
existing gas-fired boilers.
Fonterra says the Climate
Change Commission's
recommendations are
broadly in line with the steps
the Co-op is taking to put
sustainability at the core of
everything it does.
Other key aspects to
Fonterra’s submission.
Transport
• The Co-operative is
supportive of increased
electric vehicles and use
of low carbon fuels and is
implementing a new policy
that will see 30% of its light
fleet transition to EVs by
2024 and more charging
stations installed at its sites
by the end of 2021
• The recent roll out of
the Milk Vat Monitoring
systems that have been
installed on farms has
created opportunities to
optimise our tanker pick-up
schedules allowing us to
budget for five less tankers
from next year.
Land – Agriculture
• The Commission’s
recommendations align
very closely with the steps
that Fonterra is already
actively working towards
through The Co-operative
Difference.
• Fonterra is supportive of
developing a long-term
plan for research and
development working with
government and industry
on the methane challenge.
• Fonterra is concerned that
some of the productivity
assumptions underpinning
the Commission’s
modelling, that show a
maintenance of current
total milk production, are
very ambitious and will
be difficult to meet. The
model used considers
different factors and
assumptions resulting
in a stock rate reduction
of 15% by 2035. This
reduction will likely come
as a by-product of other
policies and regulations
from Government rather
than a blanket rule that will
be imposed.
For Fonterra’s full submission
in response to the Climate
Change Commission’s
recommendations –
Our Co-op
8
Tanker trailer trial
Fonterra has three new
tanker trailer designs on the
road as part of a trial to find
a more sustainable, efficient
option for our nationwide
milk pick-ups. While two of
the trailers were designed
and built by transport
engineering companies, the
third was designed by one
of the Co-operative’s own
tanker operators, Bill Groves.
The Reporoa-based driver
has been dreaming up his
trailer for the past seven
years and he and Fonterra’s
Transport team are proud to
see it finally on the road.
Bill drew from his experience
as a logging truck driver as
well as his time with Fonterra
to build a trailer which
would be more efficient and
manoeuvrable under heavier
loads. The other two trailers
were designed by outside
companies that specialise
in trucks and trailers –
Longveld/TRT and Domett.
The aim of all three new
designs is to get better on-
farm manoeuvrability, higher
milk collection capacity,
economy and efficiency
for our tanker fleet. It’s
hoped they’ll increase milk
collection productivity by
8-10%, resulting in reduced
kilometres, less fuel and
fewer tankers on the road –
which all helps to improve
our sustainability.
The classic tanker trailer
holds up to 15,000 litres
of milk, whereas the three
new designs are two metres
longer and can hold up to
21,000 litres.
By co-operating with
industry-specialists as well
as our own tanker operators,
Fonterra has drawn from a
wide range of experience to
step into the next generation
of sustainable milk pick-ups
and deliveries. Over the next
12 months the three new
trailers will undergo testing
to see which one performs
the most efficiently and
which will be the safest on
the roads for our operators
and communities.
Groves Trailer
• Features a linked double
bogie to give it improved
manoeuvrability and safety
when entering and exiting
a corner.
• It’s the first of its design –
patent pending!
Domett’s Gen 4 trailer
• Back two wheels steer
with the front of the
vehicle, making it more
manoeuvrable.
• The tank is more oval in
shape, meaning it is lower
to the ground making it
more stable.
Longveld/TRT trailer
• A joint venture design
between Longvelt and TRT
• Elliptical in shape making it
strong and more stable on
the roads and also easier to
clean inside the tanks.
• Five axle design with
rear steer for better
manoeuvrability.
PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEUUK
DEC JUL JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR
LIQUID MILK M LITRES
EXPORTS
AUSTRALIA
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEUUK
AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY
MT s
AVERAGE
IMPORTS
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA
ASIACHINA
SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT
MT s
AVERAGE
9
Supplementary Information
Global Dairy Market
The charts on the right
illustrate the year-on-year
changes in imports, exports
and production for a range of
countries that are important
players in global dairy trade.
The absolute size of
the bars represents the
change in imports, exports
or production, relative
to the same period the
previous year.
Averages are shown where
data is complete for the
regions presented.
NOTE: Data for EU/UK and Australia to February; New Zealand and US to March.
NOTE: Data for EU/UK to January; Australia and US to February; New Zealand to March.
NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa and Latin America to January; China to February.
SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR
MAR
JAN
OCT FEB
JUL AUG MAY SEP NOV DEC
JUN
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD MT
10
Supplementary Information
Fonterra milk
production
The table on the right
shows Fonterra milk solids
collected in New Zealand
and Australia compared
to the previous season.
MILK COLLECTION
(MILLION KGMS)
MARCH
2021
MARCH
2020
MONTHLY
CHANGE
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2020/21
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2019/20
SEASON-
TO-DATE
CHANGE
Total Fonterra
New Zealand
138.2128.07.9%1,345.81,340.90.4%
North Island74.763.517.7%805.4793.51.5%
South Island63.464.5(1.7%)540.3547.4(1.3%)
Australia8.18.01.6%84.185.3(1.4%)
Fonterra GDT results
This table provides more
information on the latest
results, including a snapshot
of the year-to-date results.
LAST TRADING EVENT
(20 APRIL 2021)
YEAR-TO-DATE
(FROM 1 AUGUST 2020)
Quantity Sold on GDT
(Winning MT)
24,122538,851
Change in Quantity Sold on GDT
over same period last year
22.2%(5.0%)
Weighted Average Product Price
(USD/MT)
4,1613,433
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price over same period
last year
43.7%3.6%
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price from previous event
0.4%–
Fonterra GDT results
This chart shows Fonterra
GDT prices and volumes over
the past 12 months.
11
AMENA
Africa, Middle East, Europe,
North Asia, Americas.
AMF
Anhydrous Milk Fat.
BMP
Butter Milk Powder.
DIRA
Dairy Industry Restructuring
Act 2001 (New Zealand).
Farmgate Milk Price
The price for milk supplied in
New Zealand to Fonterra by
farmer shareholders.
Fluid Products
The Fonterra grouping
of fluid milk products
(skim milk, whole milk
and cream – pasteurised
or UHT processed),
concentrated milk products
(evaporated milk and
sweetened condensed milk)
and yoghurt.
GDT
Global Dairy Trade, the
online provider of the twice
monthly global auctions of
dairy ingredients.
kgMS
Kilogram of milk solids, the
measure of the amount of
fat and protein in the milk
supplied to Fonterra.
MPC
Milk Protein Concentrate.
Non-Reference Products
All dairy products, except
for Reference Products,
produced by the NZ
Ingredients business.
NZMP
New Zealand Milk Products.
Reference Products
The dairy products used
in the calculation of the
Farmgate Milk Price, which
are currently WMP, SMP,
BMP, butter and AMF.
Glossary
Season
New Zealand: A period
of 12 months to 31 May
in each year.
Australia: A period of
12 months to 30 June
in each year.
SMP
Skim Milk Powder.
WMP
Whole Milk Powder.
WPC
Whey Protein Concentrate
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time
Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update April 20212021-04-30
“• Coal not in Fonterra’s future. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Increase in New Zealand monthly production. US monthly production up, EU and Australia down. • New Zealand, Australia and US exports show strong monthly growth. EU monthly exports down. • China monthly imports co…”
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update May 20212021-05-30
“• Third quarter business update. • Capital structure consultation commences. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • New Zealand, US and EU monthly production up, while Australia down. • US and Australia exports show strong monthly growth. EU exports up while New Zealand monthly export…”
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update March 20212021-03-31
“• NZMP Organic Butter goes carbonzero™ • On 17 March, Fonterra announced its Interim Results. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Monthly production in New Zealand and Australia up, EU and US down. • New Zealand monthly exports up. Australia and EU exports show strong monthly growth…”