Global Dairy Update May 2021
• Third quarter business update.
• Capital structure consultation commences.
1
Global Dairy
UPDATE
• New Zealand, US and EU monthly
production up, while Australia down.
• US and Australia exports show strong monthly
growth. EU exports up while New Zealand
monthly exports decline.
• China monthly imports continue to grow.
Latin America imports up, Middle East and
Africa and Asia monthly imports down.
• Fonterra's New Zealand milk collection for April
was 118.2 million kgMS, an 11.2% increase on
April last season. At the end of April, season-to-
date collection was 1.2% up on last season.
• Fonterra’s Australia collection for April was
8.1 million kgMS, a 1.9% increase compared to
April last season, but down 1.1% for the season
to date compared to the prior period.
• Taranaki farm embraces te ao Maori
• Fonterra farmer John Wyatt has become the first person to
ever accomplish a trifecta in the New Zealand Dairy Industry
Awards (NZDIA).
Key Dates
1 June 2021
Start of the 2021/22 Season
31 July 2021
End of Financial Year 2021
September 2021
FY21 Annual Results
Announcement
M AY 2 02 1
For further details,
view our website –
%
%
%%
%
%
%%
Change for April 2021
compared to April 2020
Change for April 2021
compared to April 2020
Change for March 2021
compared to March 2020
Change for March 2021
compared to March 2020
Change for the 12 months to
April 2021
Change for the 12 months to
April 2021
Change for the 12 months to
March 2021
Change for the 12 months to
March 2021
3.31.811.6
1.80.21.8
0.5
2.5
2
OUR MARKETS
Global Production
New Zealand, US and EU
monthly production up,
while Australia down
New Zealand milk
production¹ increased
11. 6% on a litres basis in April
compared to April last year.
New Zealand production is
benefiting from favourable
end of season milk
production conditions in
key farming regions of the
North Island.
New Zealand milk
production for the 12 months
to April was 2.5% higher
than last year.
Fonterra collections are
reported for April, see page 5
for details.
Australia milk
production was down
1.8% in March compared to
last March.
Lower herd numbers
associated with farm exits
continue to constrain milk
production growth across
Australia despite favourable
on-farm conditions.
Dairy Australia has reduced
its milk production forecast
from 1% to 3% growth to
(1)% to 1% growth for the
2020/21 season.
Australia milk production for
the 12 months to March was
1.8% higher than last year.
Fonterra collections in
Australia are reported for
April, see page 5 for details.
EU milk production²
improved after a slow start
to the season and increased
by 0.5% in March compared
to the same period last year.
Increases were observed in
Ireland (up 13.5%), Poland
(1.7%), Italy (1.5%) and offset
by declines in France (down
1.4%) and Germany (1.1%).
EU milk production for the
12 months to March was up
by 0.2% compared to the
same period last year, driven
by higher volumes from
Ireland, Poland and Belgium.
US milk production
increased by 3.3% in April,
compared to the same
period last year.
US milk production
continues to expand,
driven by herd size growth
and higher milk per cow
yield. April production
last year was impacted by
pandemic driven production
restrictions applied to
farmers by co-operatives.
Milk production for the
12 months to April was 1.8%
higher compared to the
same period last year.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in production –
1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.
2 Excludes UK.
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in exports –
3
OUR MARKETS
Global Exports
US and Australia exports
show strong monthly
growth. EU exports up
while New Zealand monthly
exports decline
Total New Zealand
dairy exports decreased
by 5.6% or 16,454 MT, in
April compared to the same
period last year.
The decrease was driven by
lower volumes of SMP and
AMF to South East Asia,
and WMP to Saudi Arabia
and UAE, down a combined
19,815 MT. This was partially
offset by increased cheese
exports to China, up 4,877 MT.
Exports for the 12 months
to April were up by 1.5%, or
50,594 MT, on the previous
comparable period. This was
primarily driven by WMP,
fluid milk products and
cheese but partially offset by
decreases in SMP, butter and
infant formula.
EU dairy exports¹
increased by 0.3%, or
1,414 MT, in February
compared to the same
period last year.
February saw increased
volumes of fluid milk
products and whey shipped
to China but was partially
offset by reduced volumes of
butter to Saudi Arabia, and
cultured products and SMP
to Algeria.
Exports for the 12 months to
February were up 2.4%, or
168,320 MT, on the previous
comparable period. Fluid
milk products, whey, lactose,
WMP and cheese were the
main drivers of this growth,
partially offset by a large
decline in SMP.
US dairy exports
increased 21.3%, or
45,165 MT, in March
compared to the same
period last year.
Despite ongoing shipping
and logistical challenges,
record March shipments
were made to China, with
whey up 23,670 MT and SMP
up 8,893 MT.
Exports for the 12 months
to March 2021 were up
10.4%, or 243,681 MT, on
the previous comparable
period, driven by SMP, whey
and WPC, up a combined
248,040 MT.
Australia dairy exports
increased by 16.6%, or
10,966 MT, in March
compared to the same
period last year.
The increase was driven by
higher demand from China
for SMP, up 5,662 MT, and
fluid milk products, up
5,804 MT.
Exports for the 12 months
to March were up 7.3%, or
53,659 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was predominantly
driven by increases in fluid
milk products, SMP and
butter but partially offset by
declines in infant formula.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
%%%
%%%
Change for April 2021
compared to April 2020
Change for March 2021
compared to March 2020
Change for March 2021
compared to March 2020
Change for February 2021
compared to February 2020
Change for the 12 months to
April 2021
Change for the 12 months to
March 2021
Change for the 12 months to
March 2021
Change for the 12 months to
February 2021
21.316.65.6
7.32.410.4
0.3
1.5
%
%
1 Excludes UK. February 2020 numbers include one extra day as 2020 was a leap year.
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in imports –
4
OUR MARKETS
Global Imports
China monthly imports
continue to grow.
Latin America imports up,
Middle East and Africa and
Asia monthly imports down
Latin America dairy
import volumes¹ increased
6.0%, or 8,427 MT, in
February compared to the
same period the last year.
The decrease was driven
by higher volumes of SMP
to Mexico and Peru and
fluid milk products to the
Dominican Republic, up a
combined 8,426 MT.
Imports for the 12 months
to February were up 1.4%
compared to the same
period the last year.
Asia (excluding China)
dairy import volumes¹
decreased 1.3%, or 4,817 MT,
in February compared to the
same period the last year.
The decrease was driven by
lower volumes of WMP to
South-East Asia, and lactose
to Japan and Singapore,
down a combined 13,291 MT.
This was partially offset by
higher volumes of whey, fluid
milk products and butter.
Imports for the 12 months to
February were down 2.2%,
or 108,058 MT, compared to
the same period the last year.
Decreases were recorded
across WMP, SMP, whey and
butter and offset partially by
increased volumes in lactose
and cheese, up 43,676 MT.
Middle East and
Africa dairy import
volumes¹ decreased 8.6%
or 26,523 MT, in February
2021 compared to the same
period the last year.
The decrease was driven
predominantly by lower
volumes of SMP and WMP
to Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and
fluid milk products to UAE
and Angola.
Imports for the 12 months to
February were down 2.0%,
or 76,360 MT, compared to
February last year, driven
by decreases in fluid milk
products and butter and
partially offset by increases
in SMP and WMP.
China dairy import
volumes increased by
26.4%, or 72,292 MT, in
April compared to the same
period last year.
With the exception of infant
formula, increased volumes
were observed across all
other product categories.
More notably, fluid milk
products from Germany,
New Zealand and Poland,
were up 37%, whey, from
the US, Belarus and Europe,
increased 70% and SMP
from New Zealand and
Australia, increased 43%.
Imports for the 12 months
to April were up 21.7%, or
689,069 MT, driven by fluid
milk products, whey, SMP
and lactose.
LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA
1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.
%
%
%%
%
Change for February 2021
compared to February 2020
Change for April 2021
compared to April 2020
Change for February 2021
compared to February 2020
Change for February 2021
compared to February 2020
Change for the 12 months to
February 2021
Change for the 12 months to
February 2021
Change for the 12 months to
February 2021
26.4
1.36.0
2.22.0
%
Change for the 12 months to
April 2021
21.7
8.6
1.4
%
%
To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New
Zealand and Australia compared
to the previous season –
%
%%%
%
Season to date
1 July to 30 April
Season to date
1 June to 30 April
Season to date
1 June to 30 April
Season to date
1 June to 30 April
Change for April 2021
compared to April 2020
Change for April 2021
compared to April 2020
Change for April 2021
compared to April 2020
Change for April 2021
compared to April 2020
1.92.526.011.2
1.11.43.01.2
VOLUME M LITRESDAY
JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
5
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Milk Collection
NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA
New Zealand Milk Collection
Fonterra's Australia
collection in April was
8.1 million kgMS, a 1.9% increase
on April last season. This
was largely due to additional
milk sourced from other
manufacturers in April this
season. This varies month
to month.
Favourable autumn conditions
across Victoria and Tasmania
have stabilised milk production
with April intake increasing
compared to April 2020.
Season-to-date collection was
1.1% down on last season.
North Island milk collection
in April was 64.3 million kgMS,
26.0% higher than April
last season.
Season-to-date collection was
869.7 million kgMS, 3.0% ahead
of last season.
April collections were very
strong with generally favourable
weather conditions allowing
good pasture growth, and more
farms milking for longer than is
generally the case at this time
of the season. Eastern coastal
regions, in particular, continued
to see soil moisture deficits,
with collections in those areas
having lower growth.
South Island milk collection
in April was 53.9 million kgMS,
2.5% less than April last season.
Season-to-date collection was
594.2 million kgMS, 1.4% lower
than last season.
Weather conditions were less
favourable in the South Island
but collections were steady.
Although down on the same
month last season, they were at
average levels for this time of
the year, while also noting that
2020 did have a stronger than
average late season run.
Fonterra's New Zealand
collection for April was
118.2 million kgMS, 11.2% higher
than the same month last
season driven by strong growth
in the North Island.
Season-to-date collection was
1,464.0 million kgMS, 1.2%
ahead of last season.
April started out very warm
across the country, with both
islands experiencing a mix
of weather. Western regions
were generally wetter and had
lower than average sunshine
hours, whereas Eastern regions
were mostly drier and sunnier
than average.
%%%
Forecast Farmgate Milk Price for
the 2021/22 season
Forecast milk collection for the
2021/22 season
per
kgMS
7. 2 5 -
8.75
1, 52 5
M
kgMS
Outlook for
New Zealand
NZD
The inclusion of off-GDT
sales contributed
nine cents per kgMS to the
Milk Price for the season
to 30 April 2021.
%%%
%%
To view more information,
including a snapshot of the
rolling year-to-date results –
%
6
GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE
MAY DEC MAY
JUL
OCT
DEC
MAR
MAY
AUG OCT MAR
,
,
,
.
.
.
.
.
PRICE INDEX
NZD USD
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results
Fonterra GDT sales
by destination:
Dairy commodity
prices and New
Zealand dollar trend
The NZD/USD exchange rate
traded in a narrow band between
71 and 73 US cents; supported
by strong commodity prices and
robust domestic New Zealand
economic activity, but additional
strength was contained by
expectations of comparative US
economic outperformance in
the near term.
Fonterra GDT results at
last trading event
18 May 2021:
The next trading event will be held on 1 June 2021. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.
Change in Fonterra’s
weighted average product
price from previous event
0.3
Fonterra’s weighted
average product price
(USD/MT)
4,213
USD
Fonterra product quantity
sold on GDT
000’ MT
20.2
NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)
SOUTH EAST ASIA
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
OTHER
USD 4,929/MT
2.1
BUTTER
USD 4,321/MT
1.1
CHEDDAR
USD 4,123/MT
0.2
WMP
USD 3,491/MT
0.7
SMP
USD 5,730/MT
0.0
AMF
20,199
MT
LATEST AUCTION
580,148
MT
FINANCIAL
YEAR‑TO‑DATE
7
Our Performance
Capital structure
consultation
commences
Fonterra is continuing to
consult with farmers on
potential options to change
its capital structure.
It is part of a comprehensive
capital structure review that
aims to help ensure:
• the financial sustainability
of the Co-op into
the future;
• a sustainable milk
supply; and
• protection of farmer
ownership and control.
The consultation process
started in early May and
includes a series of meetings,
webinars and other
opportunities for farmers
to find out more and have
their say. To help give the
conversations with farmers
some structure, the Board
put forward a preferred
option – a ‘Reduced Share
Standard and either No Fund
or a Capped Fund.’
“We believe the best option
for our Co-op is to move to
a structure that reduces the
number of shares a farmer
would be required to have
and either removes the Fund
or caps it from growing
further, to protect farmer
ownership and control,” says
Chairman Peter McBride.
“This is the Board’s current
thinking, but we are open
minded about adjusting
that direction based on
farmer feedback on any of
the options. Conversations
at the regional meetings
have already brought out
a number of good ideas
from farmers that we will
be considering.”
Once farmer views have
been heard, and if the
appetite for change remains,
further work will be done to
refine the preferred option or
options and a second round
of consultation will be held.
If the Board decides to seek
change, it would likely aim
for a farmer vote around the
time of this year's Annual
Meeting and the approval of
at least 50% of the members
of the Co-operative Council
(formerly known as the
Shareholders’ Council) and
75% of votes from voting
farmers would be required.
If the outcome is to buy back
the Fund, that would require
the approval of 75% of votes
from voting unit holders.
As some aspects of
Fonterra’s current capital
structure are reflected in the
Dairy Industry Restructuring
Act 2001 (DIRA), any vote
is likely to be conditional on
any necessary changes to
legislation being passed. The
DIRA enabled Fonterra to be
formed so that an efficient
co-operative of scale could
lead the country into global
markets. The value Fonterra
creates is returned to
regional New Zealand, where
it plays a strong role helping
to sustain local communities
and enhance their wellbeing.
Our Co-op
8
Taranaki farm embraces
te ao Maori
A profitable dairy farm
doesn't have to come at the
cost of the environment, say
South Taranaki dairy farmers
Jane and Damian Roper.
In April, the Ropers, who
milk 420 cows on their
158ha dairy farm in Alton,
welcomed more than
100 people to their farm
for the formal opening
of the latest step in their
journey into sustainable
and environmentally
conscious farming.
The Roper family and
members of the community
have built Ohuarai pa i te
kohu, a pa (a traditional
Maori defensive terrace) for
the propagation and growing
of native New Zealand trees.
"We have been learning te
reo Maori [Maori language]
since last year,” says Jane.
“Not only have we begun
to learn the language but
also the culture, the history
and the strong Maori values
relating to the protection of
land and the environment.
We wanted to bring Maori
culture and its set of values
into our farming operation.”
Their farm vision is to show
it’s possible to run a tidy,
profitable and efficient dairy
farm with minimal impact to
the environment, using both
Maori and modern science
practices – something they
are both passionate about.
Damian says building the pa
is the start of their journey
into this.
"With help, advice and
guidance from our iwi
Ngati Ruanui, our Marae
Wharepuni and our local
community the Tuwatawata
(stockade) Pa was built.
It houses two whare, a
propagation house for the
germinating of seeds named
Rongo-marae-roa (house of
generosity and hospitality)
and a second shadehouse
named Tane- mahuta for
the on-growing of the trees
before planting out."
The pa, which stretches
70 metres along a hilltop
and encompasses almost
half a hectare of land, has
been built with nearly
4,000 round fence posts
in different lengths, their
tips shaped to sharp points.
The high walls act as a
very effective windbreak,
sheltering the large
propagation house.
Winners of the Fonterra
Responsible Dairying
award in 2019, the Ropers
have planted about 18,000
indigenous trees around the
property since they bought
it in 2006 and plan to supply
others with trees once they
have them in production.
"This isn't a commercial
enterprise, but a way we
can help other farmers
become enthusiastic about
the benefits of indigenous
plantings. We are wanting to
bring back the biodiversity
and birdlife back to our
doorsteps, back to our farms.”
Built over the summer, it was
a team effort by about 20
people in the community,
from builders and
tradespeople to iwi members
who gave cultural advice.
To view Jane and Damian's
story –
Our Co-op
9
Third time’s a charm
A hat-trick. A trifecta. A
three-peat.
Whatever you want to call
it, Fonterra farmer John
Wyatt has become the first
person to ever accomplish
it in the New Zealand Dairy
Industry Awards (NZDIA).
John has been named the
2021 Taranaki Share Farmer
of the Year, the latest step
in his progression through
the ranks of the dairy
industry and a history
making moment.
It’s historic because
claiming the title meant
that John became the first
person to win all three
NZDIA categories – he was
the 2009 Hawke’s Bay/
Wairarapa Dairy Trainee
of the Year and the 2015
Manawatu Farm Manager of
the Year.
“It was at the back of my
mind when I entered”, says
John. “But I had no idea that
no one had ever done it
before so it’s pretty cool.”
John grew up on a sheep and
beef farm near Dannevirke
and was often helping the
neighbours with shearing
and docking.
"I have always been keen
on farming. I enjoy being
outside and working with
animals so I knew that was
where my future lay."
But in 2007, he left home
and gave up sheep and beef
in favour of dairying.
"I realised that dairy farming
offered a better progression
path to farm ownership and
more opportunities than
sheep and beef, so I gave it a
go. I enjoyed it so I have just
kept doing it.”
John reckons one of the keys
to his success is that he’s
always keen to learn.
“I want to know as much as
I can about what I’m doing
so having that knowledge is
important. That’s why I did
a Diploma through Primary
ITO and I think that has
really helped my career.”
Away from the farm John and
Kristina enjoy staying active,
but with one-and-a-half-year-
old son Caleb to also care for,
finding time can be tricky.
“I play squash and Kristina
plays hockey. We both enjoy
mountain biking together as
well, although it's a bit more
difficult now that we have
a family. We’re not far from
the beach at Opunake and
there are some great walking
trails on the mountain which
is less than 30 mins away.
There’s lots of outdoors stuff
close to us so we try to get
out when we can.”
John and Kristina are now
in the process of buying
the herd they currently
contract milk to start a 50:50
sharemilking partnership.
“We’re really excited about
that. It’s great to be staying
on the same farm. The plan
for the next few years is to
pay off some debt and then
hopefully be in a position
to buy a farm of our own.
Kristina and I work really
well as a team. I enjoy the
satisfaction of a job well-
done and want to set a good
example and create a future
for my family.”
PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEUUK
DEC JUL JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR
LIQUID MILK M LITRES
EXPORTS
AUSTRALIA
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEUUK
AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY
MT s
AVERAGE
IMPORTS
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA
ASIACHINA
SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT
MT s
AVERAGE
10
Supplementary Information
Global Dairy Market
The charts on the right
illustrate the year-on-year
changes in imports, exports
and production for a range of
countries that are important
players in global dairy trade.
The absolute size of
the bars represents the
change in imports, exports
or production, relative
to the same period the
previous year.
Averages are shown where
data is complete for the
regions presented.
NOTE: Data for EU/UK and Australia to March; New Zealand and US to April.
NOTE: Data for EU/UK to February; Australia and US to March; New Zealand to April.
NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa and Latin America to February; China to April.
SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR
MAR
JAN
OCT FEB
JUL AUG MAY
SEP NOV DEC JUN
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD MT
11
Supplementary Information
Fonterra milk
production
The table on the right
shows Fonterra milk solids
collected in New Zealand
and Australia compared
to the previous season.
MILK COLLECTION
(MILLION KGMS)
APRIL
2021
APRIL
2020
MONTHLY
CHANGE
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2020/21
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2019/20
SEASON-
TO-DATE
CHANGE
Total Fonterra
New Zealand
118.2106.311. 2%1,464.01,447.21.2%
North Island64.351. 026.0%869.7844.63.0%
South Island53.955.3(2.5%)594.2602.6(1.4%)
Australia8.17.91.9%92.193.2(1.1%)
Fonterra GDT results
This table provides more
information on the latest
results, including a snapshot
of the year-to-date results.
LAST TRADING EVENT
(18 M AY 2021)
YEAR-TO-DATE
(FROM 1 AUGUST 2020)
Quantity Sold on GDT
(Winning MT)
20,199580,148
Change in Quantity Sold on GDT
over same period last year
26.3%(3.0%)
Weighted Average Product Price
(USD/MT)
4,2133,489
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price over same period
last year
43.3%6.0%
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price from previous event
(0.3%)–
Fonterra GDT results
This chart shows Fonterra
GDT prices and volumes over
the past 12 months.
12
AMENA
Africa, Middle East, Europe,
North Asia, Americas.
AMF
Anhydrous Milk Fat.
BMP
Butter Milk Powder.
DIRA
Dairy Industry Restructuring
Act 2001 (New Zealand).
Farmgate Milk Price
The price for milk supplied in
New Zealand to Fonterra by
farmer shareholders.
Fluid Products
The Fonterra grouping
of fluid milk products
(skim milk, whole milk
and cream – pasteurised
or UHT processed),
concentrated milk products
(evaporated milk and
sweetened condensed milk)
and yoghurt.
GDT
Global Dairy Trade, the
online provider of the twice
monthly global auctions of
dairy ingredients.
kgMS
Kilogram of milk solids, the
measure of the amount of
fat and protein in the milk
supplied to Fonterra.
MPC
Milk Protein Concentrate.
Non-Reference Products
All dairy products, except
for Reference Products,
produced by the NZ
Ingredients business.
NZMP
New Zealand Milk Products.
Reference Products
The dairy products used
in the calculation of the
Farmgate Milk Price, which
are currently WMP, SMP,
BMP, butter and AMF.
Glossary
Season
New Zealand: A period
of 12 months to 31 May
in each year.
Australia: A period of
12 months to 30 June
in each year.
SMP
Skim Milk Powder.
WMP
Whole Milk Powder.
WPC
Whey Protein Concentrate
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time
Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.
- FSF — Fonterra Shareholders' Fund: Global Dairy Update May 20212021-05-30
“• Third quarter business update. • Capital structure consultation commences. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • New Zealand, US and EU monthly production up, while Australia down. • US and Australia exports show strong monthly growth. EU exports up while New Zealand monthly export…”
- FSF — Fonterra Shareholders' Fund: Global Dairy Update April 20212021-04-30
“• Coal not in Fonterra’s future. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Increase in New Zealand monthly production. US monthly production up, EU and Australia down. • New Zealand, Australia and US exports show strong monthly growth. EU monthly exports down. • China monthly imports co…”
- FSF — Fonterra Shareholders' Fund: Global Dairy Update July 20212021-07-29
“•Farmer feedback set to shape revised capital structure proposal. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • S tart of new season in New Zealand. US, EU a nd Australia monthly production up. •A ustralia, New Zealand and US monthly exports continue to grow while EU monthly exports ease. • Increas…”