Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited logo

Global Dairy Update April 2021

Operational Update30 April 2021FCGConsumer Staples

• Coal not in Fonterra’s future.
1

Global Dairy

UPDATE

• Increase in New Zealand monthly production.

US monthly production up, EU and

Australia down.

• New Zealand, Australia and US exports

show strong monthly growth. EU monthly

exports down.

• China monthly imports continue to grow.

Latin America, Middle East and Africa and Asia

monthly imports down.

• Fonterra's New Zealand milk collection for

March was 138.2 million kgMS, up 7.9% on

March last season. March season-to-date

collection was in line with last season, up 0.4%.

• Forecast Fonterra milk collection for the

2020/21 season increased to 1,535m kgMS

from 1,525m kgMS.

• Fonterra’s Australia collection for March was

8.1 million kgMS, a 1.6% increase compared to

last season.

• Tanker trailer trial.

Key Dates

26 May 2021

FY21 Q3 Business Update

1 June 2021

Start of the 2021/22 Season

31 July 2021

End of Financial Year 2021

September 2021

FY21 Annual Results

Announcement

APRIL 2021

%
%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for March 2021

compared to March 2020

Change for March 2021

compared to March 2020

Change for February 2021

compared to February 2020

Change for February 2021

compared to February 2020

Change for the 12 months to

March 2021

Change for the 12 months to

March 2021

Change for the 12 months to

February 2021

Change for the 12 months to

February 2021

1.80.89.8

2.40.21.6

3.8

1.7

2

OUR MARKETS

Global Production

Increase in New Zealand

monthly production. US

monthly production up, EU

and Australia down

New Zealand milk

production¹ increased 9.8%

on a litres basis in March

compared to March last year,

despite drier than average

conditions across most of the

country. Warm temperatures

and above average rainfall

in central North Island

have contributed to the

production growth in March.

New Zealand milk

production for the 12 months

to March was 1.7% higher

than the comparable period

last year.

Fonterra collections are

reported for March, see

page 5 for details.

Australia milk

production was down 0.8%

in February compared to

February last year.²

Labour challenges,

reduced herd size and

farm exits continue to

constrain production.

Despite favourable

early season production

conditions, Dairy Australia

reduced its milk production

forecast from 1% to 3%

growth to (1)% to 1% growth

for the 2020/21 season.

Fonterra collections in

Australia are reported for

March, see page 5 for details.

EU milk production³

decreased by 3.8% in

February compared to the

same period last year.²

Decreases were observed

across most EU countries,

particularly in Germany

(down 2.4%), France (down

2.6%) and Netherlands

(down 1.9%).

EU milk production for the

12 months to February was

up by 0.2% compared to the

same period last year, driven

by higher volumes from

Ireland, Poland and Belgium.

US milk production

increased by 1.8% in

March, compared to the

same period last year, and

marks a total production

monthly record for March of

8.7 billion litres.

US milk production

continues to be driven by

herd size expansion and

higher milk per cow yield.

March marked the highest

monthly milk production

per cow on record, up 1% on

March last year.

Milk production for the

12 months to March was

1.6% higher compared to the

same period last year.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.

2 February 2020 production numbers include one extra day as 2020 was a leap year.

3 Excludes UK.

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

Global Exports

New Zealand, Australia

and US exports show

strong monthly growth.

EU monthly exports down

Total New Zealand

dairy exports increased

by 20.9%, or 61,795 MT, in

March compared to the

same period last year, the

highest March volume

on record.

The increase was driven by

higher volumes of WMP, fluid

milk products and cheese

to China, up a combined

54,639 MT in March.

Exports for the 12 months to

March were up by 1.6%, or

53,481 MT, on the previous

comparable period. This was

primarily driven by WMP

and fluid milk products

but partially offset by

decreases in SMP, butter and

infant formula.

EU dairy exports¹

decreased by 8.6%, or

50,036 MT, in January

compared to the same

period last year. January

saw decreased shipments

of cheese to the US due to

ongoing retaliatory tariffs

and reduced volumes of

cultured products and infant

formula to China.

Exports for the 12 months

to January were up 2.8%, or

194,866 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

Fluid milk products, whey

and lactose were the main

drivers of this growth, up

a combined 286,082 MT.

This was partially offset by a

large decline in SMP, down

90,714  MT.

US dairy exports

increased 12.7%, or

23,950 MT, in February

compared to the same

period last year.²

The increase was led by SMP,

with the strongest February

on record, up 16,642 MT, and

driven by higher volumes

to Mexico, South East Asia,

China and Pakistan, plus

continued high demand for

whey from China.

Exports for the 12 months

to February 2021 were up

8.8%, or 204,875 MT, on

the previous comparable

period, driven by SMP, whey

and WPC, up a combined

217,497  MT.

Australia dairy exports

increased by 39.9%, or

21,292 MT, in February

compared to the same

period last year, which was

lower than normal.²

The increase was driven

by higher demand from

China for SMP, up 9,525  MT,

and fluid milk products, up

5,233  MT.

Exports for the 12 months to

February were up 6.6%, or

48,261 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was predominantly

driven by increases in fluid

milk products but partially

offset by declines in infant

formula, cheese and WMP.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

%%%

%%%

Change for March 2021

compared to March 2020

Change for February 2021

compared to February 2020

Change for February 2021

compared to February 2020

Change for January 2021

compared to January 2020

Change for the 12 months to

March 2021

Change for the 12 months to

February 2021

Change for the 12 months to

February 2021

Change for the 12 months to

January 2021

12.739.920.9

6.62.88.8

8.6

1.6

%

%

1 Excludes UK.2 February 2020 numbers include one extra day as 2020 was a leap year.

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

Global Imports

China monthly imports

continue to grow.

Latin America, Middle

East and Africa and Asia

monthly imports down

Latin America dairy

import volumes¹

decreased 4.5%, or 7,028 MT,

in January compared to the

same period last year.

The decrease was driven

by lower imports of whey,

lactose and MPC and MPI

to Mexico ,and WMP to

Colombia. This was partially

offset by higher volumes of

fluid milk product, cheese

and SMP.

Imports for the 12 months

to January were up 0.5%

compared to the same

period the last year.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 0.8% or 2,984  MT,

in January compared to last

January. The decrease was

driven by lower volumes

of WMP, predominately to

Vietnam, Thailand, Sri Lanka

and Bangladesh, down

14,205 MT. This was partially

offset by higher volumes of

fluid milk products, MPC

and butter.

Imports for the 12 months

to January were down 2.5 %,

or 122,965 MT, compared to

the same period last year.

Decreases were recorded

across WMP, SMP, whey and

butter, down a combined

178,375 MT, partially offset by

increased volumes of lactose

and cheese, up 61,524  MT.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 19.0%, or

62,732 MT, in January 2021

compared to the same period

last year.

The decrease was driven

predominantly by WMP

and SMP to Algeria, Nigeria

and Saudi Arabia, down a

combined 47,037  MT.

Imports for the 12 months

to January were down 2.3%,

or 87,951 MT, compared to

January last year, driven

by decreases in fluid milk

products and butter and

partially offset by increases in

SMP and WMP.

China dairy import

volumes increased by

24.6%, or 77,646 MT, in

February compared to the

same period last year.

The increased volumes were

led by fluid milk products, up

35%, driven by New Zealand,

Germany and Poland, plus

whey, up 24%, driven by

the US.

Imports for the 12 months to

February were up 16.1%, or

508,067 MT, driven by whey,

fluid milk products, SMP

and lactose.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%

%

%%

%

Change for January 2021

compared to January 2020

Change for February 2021

compared to February 2020

Change for January 2021

compared to January 2020

Change for January 2021

compared to January 2020

Change for the 12 months to

January 2021

Change for the 12 months to

January 2021

Change for the 12 months to

January 2021

24.6

0.84.5

2.52.3

%

Change for the 12 months to

February 2021

16.1

19.0

0.5

%

%

To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%

%%%

%

Season to date

1 July to 31 March

Season to date

1 June to 31 March

Season to date

1 June to 31 March

Season to date

1 June to 31 March

Change for March 2021

compared to March 2020

Change for March 2021

compared to March 2020

Change for March 2021

compared to March 2020

Change for March 2021

compared to March 2020

1.61.717.77.9

1.41.31.50.4

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY



















5

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Milk Collection

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

New Zealand Milk Collection

Fonterra's Australia

collection in March was

8.1 million kgMS, a 1.6% increase

on March last season.

Favourable autumn conditions

across Victoria and Tasmania

have stabilised milk production.

Lower herd numbers combined

with increased consumption

of lower quality home-grown

fodder instead of supplementary

feed are continuing to impact

milk production growth

across Australia.

Season-to-date collections were

down 1.4% on last year.

North Island milk collection

in March was 74.7 million

kgMS, 17.7% higher than March

last season.

Season-to-date collection was

805.4 million kgMS, 1.5% ahead

of last season.

Collections in March were

strong off the back of late

February rain allowing good

pasture growth in March.

Although up significantly on the

same month last year, March

2020 collections were low due

to very dry conditions.

South Island milk collection

in March was 63.4 million kgMS,

behind 1.7% on March

last season.

Season-to-date collection was

540.3 million kgMS, 1.3% behind

last season.

The north of the South Island

saw close to average

temperatures for March, while

the rest of the island was above

average. Other than the West

Coast, rainfall for the South

Island was below average.

South Island collections were

down on March 2020, but

close to average for this time of

the season.

Fonterra's New Zealand

collection for March was

138.2 million kgMS, 7.9% higher

than the same month last

season, driven by North Island

collections.

Season-to-date collection was

1,345.8 million kgMS, 0.4%

higher than last season.

Most regions had good levels

of supplementary feed on hand

from good conditions earlier

in the season and late rain in

February in the North Island

benefitted production in March.

March was drier than average

across the north and east of

both islands, with soil moisture

levels by the end of March being

below normal for the time of

year across many regions.

%%%

Forecast Fonterra milk collection

for the 2020/21 season

from 1,525m kgMS

1, 5 3 5M

kgMS

Outlook for

New Zealand

%%%
%%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

APR  NOV  APR

JUN

SEP

NOV

FEB APR JUN  SEP  FEB





,

, 

,

.

.

.

.

.
PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity

prices and New

Zealand dollar trend

The NZD/USD exchange rate

declined late in March and into

early April driven by broad USD

strength, as the US economy

improved, and as reaction to

the NZ Government’s housing

policy actions placed downward

pressure on the NZD. However,

toward month end the NZD had

recovered to 72 US cents.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

20 April 2021:

The next trading event will be held on 4 May 2021. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

0.4

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

4,161

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

24.1

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 6,003/MT

3.3

AMF

USD 4,436/MT

1.0

CHEDDAR

USD 3,404/MT

0.1

SMP

USD 4,097/MT

0.3

WMP

USD 5,736/MT

0.7

BUTTER

24,122

MT

LATEST AUCTION

538,851

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
Our Performance

Coal not in

Fonterra’s future

Fonterra has been working

on its transition to renewable

energy for some time and

says it can, and will, get out

of coal, with a couple of

practical constraints.

Nine of its 29 sites use coal

and Chief Operating Officer

Fraser Whineray says there’s

been a lot of progress over

the last few years to get the

Co-op to a position where it

can make this commitment.

“With customers in more

than 140 countries we have

global insights and long-term

trends supporting these

actions, which have been in

progress for some time.

“Last year we achieved

our target of a 20 per cent

reduction in energy intensity

from a 2003 baseline

after making thousands

of improvements across

sites here in New Zealand.

Lifting energy efficiency is

a valuable pre-requisite to

larger investments.

“More recently we reduced

the total quantity of coal we

use by 10 per cent when we

converted our Te Awamutu

site to burn wood pellets

and this builds on our

experience from converting

our Brightwater site in 2018

to co-fire on wood biomass.”

Conversion or

replacement of existing

coal boilers to renewable

energy is a significant,

logistical, technical and

financial undertaking.

“We’ve built a lot of

capability in-house and with

partners in New Zealand

and internationally and

this provides us with

comfort that solutions

are sustainable.

“It’s important to us that

New Zealand continues

to be at the forefront of

sustainable food production

– and getting out of coal

is one way we can help

with this.

“We already have the lowest

carbon footprint among

major milk producers around

the world and we want to

continue to build on this

competitive advantage,”

says Whineray.

“While we’re working on

this transition, we need to

make sure we can deliver

on our customers’ needs

and process our farmer

owners’ milk. There is only

a small window between

each milking season when

we can undertake the

necessary engineering work

to make key changes on the

remaining sites.

“We’ll also need to make

sure we can get the

right specialist skills and

equipment into the country

at the right time, beyond the

extensive local capabilities.

And we’ll need to have a

secure gas supply for our

existing gas-fired boilers.

Fonterra says the Climate

Change Commission's

recommendations are

broadly in line with the steps

the Co-op is taking to put

sustainability at the core of

everything it does.

Other key aspects to

Fonterra’s submission.

Transport

• The Co-operative is

supportive of increased

electric vehicles and use

of low carbon fuels and is

implementing a new policy

that will see 30% of its light

fleet transition to EVs by

2024 and more charging

stations installed at its sites

by the end of 2021

• The recent roll out of

the Milk Vat Monitoring

systems that have been

installed on farms has

created opportunities to

optimise our tanker pick-up

schedules allowing us to

budget for five less tankers

from next year.

Land – Agriculture

• The Commission’s

recommendations align

very closely with the steps

that Fonterra is already

actively working towards

through The Co-operative

Difference.

• Fonterra is supportive of

developing a long-term

plan for research and

development working with

government and industry

on the methane challenge.

• Fonterra is concerned that

some of the productivity

assumptions underpinning

the Commission’s

modelling, that show a

maintenance of current

total milk production, are

very ambitious and will

be difficult to meet. The

model used considers

different factors and

assumptions resulting

in a stock rate reduction

of 15% by 2035. This

reduction will likely come

as a by-product of other

policies and regulations

from Government rather

than a blanket rule that will

be imposed.

For Fonterra’s full submission

in response to the Climate

Change Commission’s

recommendations –

Our Co-op
8

Tanker trailer trial

Fonterra has three new

tanker trailer designs on the

road as part of a trial to find

a more sustainable, efficient

option for our nationwide

milk pick-ups. While two of

the trailers were designed

and built by transport

engineering companies, the

third was designed by one

of the Co-operative’s own

tanker operators, Bill Groves.

The Reporoa-based driver

has been dreaming up his

trailer for the past seven

years and he and Fonterra’s

Transport team are proud to

see it finally on the road.

Bill drew from his experience

as a logging truck driver as

well as his time with Fonterra

to build a trailer which

would be more efficient and

manoeuvrable under heavier

loads. The other two trailers

were designed by outside

companies that specialise

in trucks and trailers –

Longveld/TRT and Domett.

The aim of all three new

designs is to get better on-

farm manoeuvrability, higher

milk collection capacity,

economy and efficiency

for our tanker fleet. It’s

hoped they’ll increase milk

collection productivity by

8-10%, resulting in reduced

kilometres, less fuel and

fewer tankers on the road –

which all helps to improve

our sustainability.

The classic tanker trailer

holds up to 15,000 litres

of milk, whereas the three

new designs are two metres

longer and can hold up to

21,000 litres.

By co-operating with

industry-specialists as well

as our own tanker operators,

Fonterra has drawn from a

wide range of experience to

step into the next generation

of sustainable milk pick-ups

and deliveries. Over the next

12 months the three new

trailers will undergo testing

to see which one performs

the most efficiently and

which will be the safest on

the roads for our operators

and communities.

Groves Trailer

• Features a linked double

bogie to give it improved

manoeuvrability and safety

when entering and exiting

a corner.

• It’s the first of its design –

patent pending!

Domett’s Gen 4 trailer

• Back two wheels steer

with the front of the

vehicle, making it more

manoeuvrable.

• The tank is more oval in

shape, meaning it is lower

to the ground making it

more stable.

Longveld/TRT trailer

• A joint venture design

between Longvelt and TRT

• Elliptical in shape making it

strong and more stable on

the roads and also easier to

clean inside the tanks.

• Five axle design with

rear steer for better

manoeuvrability.

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEUUK

DEC JUL JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES















EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEUUK

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s

















AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT 

MT s















AVERAGE

9


Supplementary Information

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU/UK and Australia to February; New Zealand and US to March.

NOTE: Data for EU/UK to January; Australia and US to February; New Zealand to March.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa and Latin America to January; China to February.

SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR

JAN

OCT FEB

JUL AUG MAY SEP NOV DEC

JUN 

,

,
,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,



,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT

QUANTITY SOLD  MT

10


Supplementary Information

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

MARCH

2021

MARCH


2020

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2020/21

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2019/20

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

138.2128.07.9%1,345.81,340.90.4%

North Island74.763.517.7%805.4793.51.5%

South Island63.464.5(1.7%)540.3547.4(1.3%)

Australia8.18.01.6%84.185.3(1.4%)

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(20 APRIL 2021)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2020)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

24,122538,851

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

22.2%(5.0%)

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

4,1613,433

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

43.7%3.6%

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

0.4%–

Fonterra GDT results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

11
AMENA

Africa, Middle East, Europe,

North Asia, Americas.

AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products, except

for Reference Products,

produced by the NZ

Ingredients business.

NZMP

New Zealand Milk Products.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.


Glossary

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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    • NZMP Organic Butter goes carbonzero™ • On 17 March, Fonterra announced its Interim Results. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Monthly production in New Zealand and Australia up, EU and US down. • New Zealand monthly exports up. Australia and EU exports show strong monthly growth…”

  • FSF — Fonterra Shareholders' Fund: Global Dairy Update May 2021
    2021-05-30

    • Third quarter business update. • Capital structure consultation commences. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • New Zealand, US and EU monthly production up, while Australia down. • US and Australia exports show strong monthly growth. EU exports up while New Zealand monthly export…”