Global Dairy Update March 2021
• NZMP Organic Butter goes carbonzero™
• On 17 March, Fonterra announced its Interim Results.
1
Global Dairy
UPDATE
• Monthly production in New Zealand and
Australia up, EU and US down.
• New Zealand monthly exports up. Australia
and EU exports show strong monthly growth.
US monthly exports down.
• China monthly imports show strong increase.
Latin America, Middle East and Africa and Asia
monthly imports up.
• Fonterra’s New Zealand milk collection for
February was 136.5 million kgMS, a 2.3%
increase on February last season. At the end
of February, season-to date collections were in
line with last season, down 0.4%.
• Fonterra's Australia milk collection for
February was 7.2 million kgMS, a decrease of
5.8% compared to last season.
• The Co-operative Difference payment.
Key Dates
20 April 2021
Compliance Date for
2020/21 Season
May 2021
FY21 Q3 Business Update
1 June 2021
Start of the 2021/22 Season
MARCH 2021
For further details,
view our website –
%
%
%%
%
%
%%
Change for February 2021
compared to February 2020
Change for February 2021
compared to February 2020
Change for January 2021
compared to January 2020
Change for January 2021
compared to January 2020
Change for the 12 months to
February 2021
Change for the 12 months to
February 2021
Change for the 12 months to
January 2021
Change for the 12 months to
January 2021
1.53.33.0
3.00.91.7
1.1
0.8
2
OUR MARKETS
Global Production
Monthly production in
New Zealand and Australia
up, EU and US down
New Zealand milk
p
roduction¹ increased 3.0%
on a litres basis in February
compared to February last
year despite dry
conditions
across most of the country.
This resulted in lower soil
moisture levels particularly in
the North Island.
New Zealand milk
production for the 12 months
to February was 0.8% higher
than last year.
Fonterra colle
ctions in
New Zealand are reported
for February, see page 5 for
details.
Australia milk
production was up 3.3%
in January compared to
last January as a result of
favourable milk production
conditions across dairy
farming regions. Growth was
constrained, however, by
reduced herd sizes, farm exits,
and labour challenges related
to Covid-19. Dairy Australia
expects milk production to
track towards the lower end
of the current 1 to 3% growth
range for 2020/21.
Australia milk production for
the 12 months to January was
3.0% higher than last year.
Fonterra collections in
Australia are reported
for February, see page 5
for details.
EU milk production²
decreased 1.1 % in January
compared to the same
period last year and
represents the weakest
growth in the last two years.
This was driven by decreases
observed in key milk
producing countries and in
particular in France (down
3.4%), Germany (1.7%) and
Netherlands (1.4%).
EU milk production for the
12 months to January was up
0.9% compared to the same
period last year, driven by
higher volumes from Ireland,
Poland and Spain.
US milk production
decreased 1.5% in February,
compared to the same
period last year. However,
after adjusting for 2020 leap
year, production increased
by 2.0%, driven by continued
herd size expansion and
higher milk yield per cow.
Milk production for the 12
months to February was
1.7 % higher compared to the
same period last year.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in production –
1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.
2
E
xcludes UK.
Note: 2020 production numbers include one extra day of production in February as 2020
was a leap year.
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in exports –
3
OUR MARKETS
Global Exports
New Zealand monthly
exports up. Australia and
EU exports show strong
monthly growth. US
monthly exports down
Total New Zealand dairy
exports increased by 1.1%,
or 3,203 MT, in February
compared to the same
period last year.
The increase was due to
higher volumes of fluid milk
product and WMP to China,
up a combined 15,141 MT in
February. This was partially
offset by a decrease in SMP
and butter, down 12,760 MT.
Exports for the 12 months to
February were down by 1.6%,
or 54,734 MT, on the previous
comparable period. This was
primarily driven by SMP,
butter, infant formula and
casein but partially offset by
increases in WMP.
EU dairy exports¹
increased 18.2%, or
91,972 MT, in December
compared to the same
period last year.
December saw increased
shipments of fluid milk
product to China and cheese
to Japan, Switzerland,
South Korea and Ukraine.
Exports for the 12 months to
December were up 3.1%, or
212,808 MT, on the previous
comparable period. Fluid
milk products, cheese, whey,
lactose and WMP were the
main drivers of this growth,
up a combined 325,891 MT.
It was partially offset by a
large decline in SMP down
115,447 MT.
US dairy exports
decreased 4.4%, or 8,911 MT,
in January compared to the
same period last year.
The decrease was led by lower
shipments of lactose across all
regions and of SMP to South
East Asia. Continued high
demand for whey from China
partially offset the decrease.
Exports for the 12 months to
January 2021 were up 8.3%,
or 191,544 MT on the previous
comparable period, driven
by SMP, whey and WPC
combined 196,593 MT.
Australia dairy exports
increased 16.6%, or 8,547 MT,
in January compared to the
same period last year
The increase was driven by
continuing demand from
China in fluid milk products,
up 8,505 MT.
Exports for the 12 months
to January were up 2.7%, or
20,273 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was led by increases
in fluid milk products,
SMP, lactose and whey but
partially offset by declines in
infant formula and WMP.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
%%%
%%%
Change for February 2021
compared to February 2020
Change for January 2021
compared to January 2020
Change for January 2021
compared to January 2020
Change for December 2020
compared to December 2019
Change for the 12 months to
February 2021
Change for the 12 months to
January 2021
Change for the 12 months to
January 2021
Change for the 12 months to
December 2020
4.416.61.1
2.73.18.3
18.2
1.6
%
%
1 Excludes UK.
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in imports –
4
OUR MARKETS
Global Imports
China monthly imports
show record increase.
Latin America, Middle
East and Africa and Asia
monthly imports up
Latin America dairy
import volumes¹ increased
10.1%, or 14,681 MT, in
December compared
to the same period the
previous year.
This increase was due to
higher shipments of WMP to
Brazil and fluid milk products
to Mexico. This was partially
offset by lower volumes
of SMP and whey powder
to Mexico.
Imports for the 12 months
to December were up 1.3%
compared to the same period
the previous year.
Asia (excluding China)
dairy import volumes¹
increased 0.8% or 3,014 MT,
in December compared to the
same period the previous year.
Increases were recorded in
cheese to Japan, ice cream to
Indonesia and infant formula
to Malaysia and were partially
offset by lower volumes of
whey to Indonesia.
Imports for the 12 months to
December were down 2.9%,
or 141,921 MT, compared to the
same period the previous year.
Decreases were recorded
across WMP, SMP, fluid
products and whey, down a
combined 191,561 MT, and
offset partially by increased
volumes in lactose, up
46,994 MT.
Middle East and Africa
dairy import volumes¹
increased 6.6% or 20,535 MT,
in December 2020 compared
to the same period the
previous year.
This increase was mainly
driven by infant formula to
Nigeria, up 43,996 MT, and
partially offset by lower
volumes of butter, WMP and
fluid milk products.
Imports for the 12 months to
December were down 1.0%,
or 40,685 MT, compared to
December the previous year,
driven by decreases in fluid
milk products and butter and
partially offset by increases in
SMP and WMP.
China dairy import
volumes increased 25.8%,
or 81,391 MT, in January
compared to the same period
the previous year.
This record monthly volume
was due to increased
fluid milk products from
New Zealand and Europe,
up 55%, SMP up 41% from
New Zealand and whey from
US and Europe, up 30%.
Imports for the 12 months
to January were up 18.1% or
549,248 MT, driven by whey,
fluid milk products, WMP
and SMP.
LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA
1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.
%
%
%%
%
Change for December 2020
compared to December 2019
Change for January 2021
compared to January 2020
Change for December 2020
compared to December 2019
Change for December 2020
compared to December 2019
Change for the 12 months to
December 2020
Change for the 12 months to
December 2020
Change for the 12 months to
December 2020
25.8
0.810.1
2.91.0
%
Change for the 12 months to
January 2021
18.1
6.6
1.3
%
%
To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New
Zealand and Australia compared
to the previous season –
%
%%%
%
Season to date
1 July to 28 February
Season to date
1 June to 28 February
Season to date
1 June to 28 February
Season to date
1 June to 28 February
Change for February 2021
compared to February 2020
Change for February 2021
compared to February 2020
Change for February 2021
compared to February 2020
Change for February 2021
compared to February 2020
5.81.75.92.3
1.81.20.10.4
VOLUME M LITRESDAY
JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
5
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Milk Collection
NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA
New Zealand Milk Collection
Fonterra's Australia
collection
in February
were 7.2 million kgMS, a
5.8% decrease on February
last season.
Lower herd numbers
combined with increased
consumption of lower quality
home-grown fodder instead
of supplementary feed
are continuing to impact
milk production growth
across Australia.
Season-to-date collections are
down 1.8% on last year.
North Island milk
collection in February
was 73.9 million kgMS,
5.9% higher than February
last season.
Season-to-date collection
was 730.7 million kgMS, 0.1%
ahead of last season.
Parts of the North Island
saw rainfall stimulating
recovery in pasture and
milk collections. Northland
experienced well above
average rainfall, going some
way to alleviating the very
dry conditions that region
had been experiencing
throughout summer.
South Island milk
collection in February was
62.6 million kgMS, 1.7%
behind February last season.
Season-to-date collection was
476.9 million kgMS, behind
1.2% on last season.
Higher than average
temperatures with favourable
growing conditions across
much of the South Island
led to better than average
collections. While these
were down on February
last season, South Island
collections in February 2020
were among the strongest in
recent seasons.
Fonterra's New Zealand
collection for February was
136.5 million kgMS, 2.3%
higher than the same month
last season.
Season-to-date collection
was 1,207.6 million kgMS,
0.4% behind last season.
February saw a generally
settled end to summer
across the country, but with
some bouts of wet and windy
weather. Other than the far
north of the North Island
and Fiordland in the South
Island, the whole country
was sunnier than average
for the time of the year. In
regions that had rainfall with
that warm weather, good
pasture growth resulted.
%%%
The inclusion of off-GDT sales contributed 8 cents per kgMS to the Milk Price for the season to
31 January 2021.
%
%
%%
To view more information,
including a snapshot of the
rolling year-to-date results –
%
6
GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE
MAR
OCT
MAR
MAY
AUG
OCT
JAN
MAR
MAY
AUG
JAN
,
,
,
.
.
.
.
.
PRICE INDEX
NZD USD
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results
Fonterra GDT sales
by destination:
Dairy commodity
prices and New
Zealand dollar trend
The NZD/USD exchange
rate increased following a
surge in global commodity
prices however, growing
expectations of a resurgent
US economy, aided by a
large fiscal stimulus package
and expeditious vaccination
programme putting downward
pressure on the NZD.
Fonterra GDT results at
last trading event
16 March 2021:
The next trading event will be held on 6 April 2021. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.
Change in Fonterra’s
weighted average product
price from previous event
4.5
Fonterra’s weighted
average product price
(USD/MT)
4,131
USD
Fonterra product quantity
sold on GDT
000’ MT
26.1
NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)
SOUTH EAST ASIA
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
OTHER
USD 4,083/MT
6.4
WMP
USD 6,155/MT
3.8
AMF
%
USD 4,250/MT
0.7
CHEDDAR
USD 3,377/MT
0.0
SMP
USD 5,659/MT
2.9
BUTTER
26,056
MT
LATEST AUCTION
490,744
MT
FINANCIAL
YEAR‑TO‑DATE
7
Our Performance
NZMP Organic Butter
goes carbonzero™
In Fonterra’s latest step
forward in passing on the
benefits of its sustainability
efforts to customers,
it’s excited to launch
carbonzero™ certified
NZMP Organic Butter to the
North American market, the
first product in a portfolio
of carbonzero™ certified
ingredients.
Kelvin Wickham, Fonterra’s
CEO for AMENA, says that
carbonzero ingredients, like
NZMP™ Organic Butter, can
help unlock real benefits for
our customers:
“It helps them to meet their
sustainability targets, signal
environmental values, and
grow brand preference
and market share through
differentiated products.
“According to a new report
New Zealand dairy farming
already has the world’s
lowest on-farm carbon
footprint, approximately
one third of the global
average, putting NZMP™
in a strong position to offer
sustainability solutions that
help customers reduce their
environmental impact, while
claiming an advantage in
the market.”
To become carbonzero™
certified, Fonterra has
partnered with an
independent company
called Toitu Envirocare.
This company measures
the impact of producing
the NZMP Organic Butter,
all the way from farm and
manufacturing, through to
distribution and even the
disposal of packaging by
customers. Understanding
Fonterra’s footprint, means
the Co-operative can offset
its impact with high quality
carbon credits from projects,
including native forest
regeneration in New Zealand
and Gold Standard
renewable energy projects.
Leading the transition to
a low carbon future is a
priority in Fonterra’s strategy.
Achieving carbonzero™
certification for products
like Organic Butter is a great
way to help customers and
the environment in the
short-term, while the Co-op
works towards net zero in
its operations.
Lara Phillips, Senior Manager
of Fonterra Sustainability
Solutions says, “We are
delighted we can offer
NZMP customers a way
to contribute to a lower
carbon future and welcome
the opportunity to work
with them on making
more NZMP ingredients
carbonzero™ certified”.
NZMP™ Organic Butter
carbonzero™ certified
is currently available to
customers in the US.
Overtime, to support
customer needs and
demand, NZMP™ will look
to broaden the portfolio to
more product categories
and regions.
To find out more –
Our Co-op
8
The Co-operative
Difference payment
Fonterra has released the
details of how it will pay
farmers for producing
sustainable, high quality milk
as part of The Co-operative
Difference framework.
From 1 June 2021, up to
10 cents of each farm’s milk
payment will be determined
by the farm’s sustainability
credentials and milk quality.
“Fonterra farmers are already
among the world’s best
in these areas and we’re
really proud of that. The
Co-operative Difference
payment is another way
we can recognise farmers,
while also supporting our
strategy to grow the value
of our New Zealand milk by
responding to increasing
demand around the world for
sustainably-produced dairy,”
says Richard Allen, Group
Director, Farm Source.
“The new payment
recognises farmers who are
already going above and
beyond because they’ve
innovated and invested early,
and it also offers farmers
more encouragement for
taking the steps required
to meet the changing
expectations of customers
and communities, both today
and into the future.”
“We want to reward
the on-farm efforts that
demonstrate our Co-op’s
care for the environment,
animals, people and
communities. It’s these
actions which help ensure
we’re the dairy company
of choice for customers
around the world and for
New Zealand dairy farmers,
for generations to come,”
says Richard.
While The Co-operative
Difference framework was
introduced in 2019, the milk
payment is new to farmers.
The 10 cent Co-operative
Difference payment is made
up of:
• 7 cents per kgMS for
achievement under the
Environment, Co-op &
Prosperity, Animals, and
People & Community focus
areas. Once these have
been achieved;
• 3 cents per kgMS where
Excellence is achieved for
all milk quality parameters
under the Milk Quality
framework.
The Co-operative Difference
payment details:
• Effective from next season,
from 1 June 2021.
• Current Farm Source
Rewards Dollars in The
Co-operative Difference
will be replaced with The
Co-operative Difference
payment.
• The amount and targets
will be set annually by the
Fonterra Board.
• The total amount available
to be paid to farmers
does not change, but a
proportion of the Farmgate
Milk Price will be available
to be redistributed
between farmers to better
reflect individual farm’s
achievement against the
Co-operative Difference
Framework.
PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEUUK
DEC JUL JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR
LIQUID MILK M LITRES
EXPORTS
AUSTRALIA
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEUUK
AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY
MT s
AVERAGE
IMPORTS
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA
ASIACHINA
SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN
DEC JUL OCT
MT s
AVERAGE
9
Supplementary Information
Global Dairy Market
The charts on the right
illustrate the year-on-year
changes in imports, exports
and production for a range of
countries that are important
players in global dairy trade.
The absolute size of
the bars represents the
change in imports, exports
or production, relative
to the same period the
previous year.
Averages are shown where
data is complete for the
regions presented.
NOTE: Data for EU/UK and Australia to January; New Zealand and US to February.
NOTE: Data for EU/UK to December; Australia and US to January; New Zealand to February.
NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa and Latin America to December; China to January.
SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR
MAR JAN OCT
FEB JUL
AUG
MAY
SEP
NOV
DEC JUN
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD MT
10
Supplementary Information
Fonterra milk
production
The table on the right
shows Fonterra milk solids
collected in New Zealand
and Australia compared
to the previous season.
MILK COLLECTION
(MILLION KGMS)
FEBRUARY
2021
FEBRUARY
2020
MONTHLY
CHANGE
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2020/21
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2019/20
SEASON-
TO-DATE
CHANGE
Total Fonterra
New Zealand
136.5133.52.3%1,207.61,212.9(0.4%)
North Island73.969.85.9%730.7730.10.1%
South Island62.663.7(1.7%)476.9482.9(1.2%)
Australia7.27.7(5.8%)75.977.3(1.8%)
Fonterra GDT results
This table provides more
information on the latest
results, including a snapshot
of the year-to-date results.
LAST TRADING EVENT
(16 MARCH 2021)
YEAR-TO-DATE
(FROM 1 AUGUST 2020)
Quantity Sold on GDT
(Winning MT)
26,056490,744
Change in Quantity Sold on GDT
over same period last year
11. 5%(7.1%)
Weighted Average Product Price
(USD/MT)
4,1313,362
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price over same period
last year
37.2%0.7%
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price from previous event
(4.5%)–
Fonterra GDT results
This chart shows Fonterra
GDT prices and volumes over
the past 12 months.
11
AMENA
Africa, Middle East, Europe,
North Asia, Americas.
AMF
Anhydrous Milk Fat.
BMP
Butter Milk Powder.
DIRA
Dairy Industry Restructuring
Act 2001 (New Zealand).
Farmgate Milk Price
The price for milk supplied in
New Zealand to Fonterra by
farmer shareholders.
Fluid Products
The Fonterra grouping
of fluid milk products
(skim milk, whole milk
and cream – pasteurised
or UHT processed),
concentrated milk products
(evaporated milk and
sweetened condensed milk)
and yoghurt.
GDT
Global Dairy Trade, the
online provider of the twice
monthly global auctions of
dairy ingredients.
kgMS
Kilogram of milk solids, the
measure of the amount of
fat and protein in the milk
supplied to Fonterra.
MPC
Milk Protein Concentrate.
Non-Reference Products
All dairy products, except
for Reference Products,
produced by the NZ
Ingredients business.
NZMP
New Zealand Milk Products.
Reference Products
The dairy products used
in the calculation of the
Farmgate Milk Price, which
are currently WMP, SMP,
BMP, butter and AMF.
Glossary
Season
New Zealand: A period
of 12 months to 31 May
in each year.
Australia: A period of
12 months to 30 June
in each year.
SMP
Skim Milk Powder.
WMP
Whole Milk Powder.
WPC
Whey Protein Concentrate
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time
Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update March 20212021-03-31
“• NZMP Organic Butter goes carbonzero™ • On 17 March, Fonterra announced its Interim Results. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Monthly production in New Zealand and Australia up, EU and US down. • New Zealand monthly exports up. Australia and EU exports show strong monthly growth…”
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update May 20212021-05-30
“• Third quarter business update. • Capital structure consultation commences. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • New Zealand, US and EU monthly production up, while Australia down. • US and Australia exports show strong monthly growth. EU exports up while New Zealand monthly export…”
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update January 20212021-01-28
“•Darfield site adds new shift to meet cream cheese demand. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE •December production in New Zealand flat on last year. Australia monthly production flat. US and EU monthly production increased relative to last year. • New Zealand and Australia exports increase…”