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Global Dairy Update March 2021

Operational Update31 March 2021FSFConsumer Staples

• NZMP Organic Butter goes carbonzero™
• On 17 March, Fonterra announced its Interim Results.

1

Global Dairy

UPDATE

• Monthly production in New Zealand and

Australia up, EU and US down.

• New Zealand monthly exports up. Australia

and EU exports show strong monthly growth.

US monthly exports down.

• China monthly imports show strong increase.

Latin America, Middle East and Africa and Asia

monthly imports up.

• Fonterra’s New Zealand milk collection for

February was 136.5 million kgMS, a 2.3%

increase on February last season. At the end

of February, season-to date collections were in

line with last season, down 0.4%.

• Fonterra's Australia milk collection for

February was 7.2 million kgMS, a decrease of

5.8% compared to last season.

• The Co-operative Difference payment.

Key Dates

20 April 2021

Compliance Date for

2020/21 Season

May 2021

FY21 Q3 Business Update

1 June 2021

Start of the 2021/22 Season

MARCH 2021

For further details,

view our website –

%
%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for February 2021

compared to February 2020

Change for February 2021

compared to February 2020

Change for January 2021

compared to January 2020

Change for January 2021

compared to January 2020

Change for the 12 months to

February 2021

Change for the 12 months to

February 2021

Change for the 12 months to

January 2021

Change for the 12 months to

January 2021

1.53.33.0

3.00.91.7

1.1

0.8

2

OUR MARKETS

Global Production

Monthly production in

New Zealand and Australia

up, EU and US down

New Zealand milk

p

roduction¹ increased 3.0%

on a litres basis in February

compared to February last

year despite dry

conditions

across most of the country.

This resulted in lower soil

moisture levels particularly in

the North Island.

New Zealand milk

production for the 12 months

to February was 0.8% higher

than last year.

Fonterra colle

ctions in

New Zealand are reported

for February, see page 5 for

details.

Australia milk

production was up 3.3%

in January compared to

last January as a result of

favourable milk production

conditions across dairy

farming regions. Growth was

constrained, however, by

reduced herd sizes, farm exits,

and labour challenges related

to Covid-19. Dairy Australia

expects milk production to

track towards the lower end

of the current 1 to 3% growth

range for 2020/21.

Australia milk production for

the 12 months to January was

3.0% higher than last year.

Fonterra collections in

Australia are reported

for February, see page 5

for details.

EU milk production²

decreased 1.1 % in January

compared to the same

period last year and

represents the weakest

growth in the last two years.

This was driven by decreases

observed in key milk

producing countries and in

particular in France (down

3.4%), Germany (1.7%) and

Netherlands (1.4%).

EU milk production for the

12 months to January was up

0.9% compared to the same

period last year, driven by

higher volumes from Ireland,

Poland and Spain.

US milk production

decreased 1.5% in February,

compared to the same

period last year. However,

after adjusting for 2020 leap

year, production increased

by 2.0%, driven by continued

herd size expansion and

higher milk yield per cow.

Milk production for the 12

months to February was

1.7 % higher compared to the

same period last year.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.

2

E

xcludes UK.

Note: 2020 production numbers include one extra day of production in February as 2020

was a leap year.

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

Global Exports

New Zealand monthly

exports up. Australia and

EU exports show strong

monthly growth. US

monthly exports down

Total New Zealand dairy

exports increased by 1.1%,

or 3,203 MT, in February

compared to the same

period last year.

The increase was due to

higher volumes of fluid milk

product and WMP to China,

up a combined 15,141 MT in

February. This was partially

offset by a decrease in SMP

and butter, down 12,760  MT.

Exports for the 12 months to

February were down by 1.6%,

or 54,734 MT, on the previous

comparable period. This was

primarily driven by SMP,

butter, infant formula and

casein but partially offset by

increases in WMP.

EU dairy exports¹

increased 18.2%, or

91,972 MT, in December

compared to the same

period last year.

December saw increased

shipments of fluid milk

product to China and cheese

to Japan, Switzerland,

South Korea and Ukraine.

Exports for the 12 months to

December were up 3.1%, or

212,808 MT, on the previous

comparable period. Fluid

milk products, cheese, whey,

lactose and WMP were the

main drivers of this growth,

up a combined 325,891  MT.

It was partially offset by a

large decline in SMP down

115,447  MT.

US dairy exports

decreased 4.4%, or 8,911  MT,

in January compared to the

same period last year.

The decrease was led by lower

shipments of lactose across all

regions and of SMP to South

East Asia. Continued high

demand for whey from China

partially offset the decrease.

Exports for the 12 months to

January 2021 were up 8.3%,

or 191,544 MT on the previous

comparable period, driven

by SMP, whey and WPC

combined 196,593 MT.

Australia dairy exports

increased 16.6%, or 8,547  MT,

in January compared to the

same period last year

The increase was driven by

continuing demand from

China in fluid milk products,

up 8,505  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to January were up 2.7%, or

20,273 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was led by increases

in fluid milk products,

SMP, lactose and whey but

partially offset by declines in

infant formula and WMP.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

%%%

%%%

Change for February 2021

compared to February 2020

Change for January 2021

compared to January 2020

Change for January 2021

compared to January 2020

Change for December 2020

compared to December 2019

Change for the 12 months to

February 2021

Change for the 12 months to

January 2021

Change for the 12 months to

January 2021

Change for the 12 months to

December 2020

4.416.61.1

2.73.18.3

18.2

1.6

%

%

1 Excludes UK.

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

Global Imports

China monthly imports

show record increase.

Latin America, Middle

East and Africa and Asia

monthly imports up

Latin America dairy

import volumes¹ increased

10.1%, or 14,681 MT, in

December compared

to the same period the

previous year.

This increase was due to

higher shipments of WMP to

Brazil and fluid milk products

to Mexico. This was partially

offset by lower volumes

of SMP and whey powder

to Mexico.

Imports for the 12 months

to December were up 1.3%

compared to the same period

the previous year.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

increased 0.8% or 3,014  MT,

in December compared to the

same period the previous year.

Increases were recorded in

cheese to Japan, ice cream to

Indonesia and infant formula

to Malaysia and were partially

offset by lower volumes of

whey to Indonesia.

Imports for the 12 months to

December were down 2.9%,

or 141,921 MT, compared to the

same period the previous year.

Decreases were recorded

across WMP, SMP, fluid

products and whey, down a

combined 191,561 MT, and

offset partially by increased

volumes in lactose, up

46,994  MT.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

increased 6.6% or 20,535  MT,

in December 2020 compared

to the same period the

previous year.

This increase was mainly

driven by infant formula to

Nigeria, up 43,996 MT, and

partially offset by lower

volumes of butter, WMP and

fluid milk products.

Imports for the 12 months to

December were down 1.0%,

or 40,685 MT, compared to

December the previous year,

driven by decreases in fluid

milk products and butter and

partially offset by increases in

SMP and WMP.

China dairy import

volumes increased 25.8%,

or 81,391 MT, in January

compared to the same period

the previous year.

This record monthly volume

was due to increased

fluid milk products from

New Zealand and Europe,

up 55%, SMP up 41% from

New Zealand and whey from

US and Europe, up 30%.

Imports for the 12 months

to January were up 18.1% or

549,248 MT, driven by whey,

fluid milk products, WMP

and SMP.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%

%

%%

%

Change for December 2020

compared to December 2019

Change for January 2021

compared to January 2020

Change for December 2020

compared to December 2019

Change for December 2020

compared to December 2019

Change for the 12 months to

December 2020

Change for the 12 months to

December 2020

Change for the 12 months to

December 2020

25.8

0.810.1

2.91.0

%

Change for the 12 months to

January 2021

18.1

6.6

1.3

%

%

To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%

%%%

%

Season to date

1 July to 28 February

Season to date

1 June to 28 February

Season to date

1 June to 28 February

Season to date

1 June to 28 February

Change for February 2021

compared to February 2020

Change for February 2021

compared to February 2020

Change for February 2021

compared to February 2020

Change for February 2021

compared to February 2020

5.81.75.92.3

1.81.20.10.4

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY



















5

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Milk Collection

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

New Zealand Milk Collection

Fonterra's Australia

collection

in February

were 7.2 million kgMS, a

5.8% decrease on February

last season.

Lower herd numbers

combined with increased

consumption of lower quality

home-grown fodder instead

of supplementary feed

are continuing to impact

milk production growth

across Australia.

Season-to-date collections are

down 1.8% on last year.

North Island milk

collection in February

was 73.9 million kgMS,

5.9% higher than February

last season.

Season-to-date collection

was 730.7 million kgMS, 0.1%

ahead of last season.

Parts of the North Island

saw rainfall stimulating

recovery in pasture and

milk collections. Northland

experienced well above

average rainfall, going some

way to alleviating the very

dry conditions that region

had been experiencing

throughout summer.

South Island milk

collection in February was

62.6 million kgMS, 1.7%

behind February last season.

Season-to-date collection was

476.9 million kgMS, behind

1.2% on last season.

Higher than average

temperatures with favourable

growing conditions across

much of the South Island

led to better than average

collections. While these

were down on February

last season, South Island

collections in February 2020

were among the strongest in

recent seasons.

Fonterra's New Zealand

collection for February was

136.5 million kgMS, 2.3%

higher than the same month

last season.

Season-to-date collection

was 1,207.6 million kgMS,

0.4% behind last season.

February saw a generally

settled end to summer

across the country, but with

some bouts of wet and windy

weather. Other than the far

north of the North Island

and Fiordland in the South

Island, the whole country

was sunnier than average

for the time of the year. In

regions that had rainfall with

that warm weather, good

pasture growth resulted.

%%%

The inclusion of off-GDT sales contributed 8 cents per kgMS to the Milk Price for the season to

31 January 2021.

%
%

%%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

MAR OCT MAR

MAY

AUG

OCT

JAN MAR MAY AUG JAN





,

, 

,

.

.

.

.

.
PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity

prices and New

Zealand dollar trend

The NZD/USD exchange

rate increased following a

surge in global commodity

prices however, growing

expectations of a resurgent

US economy, aided by a

large fiscal stimulus package

and expeditious vaccination

programme putting downward

pressure on the NZD.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

16 March 2021:

The next trading event will be held on 6 April 2021. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

4.5

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

4,131

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

26.1

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 4,083/MT

6.4

WMP

USD 6,155/MT

3.8

AMF

%

USD 4,250/MT

0.7

CHEDDAR

USD 3,377/MT

0.0

SMP

USD 5,659/MT

2.9

BUTTER

26,056

MT

LATEST AUCTION

490,744

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
Our Performance

NZMP Organic Butter

goes carbonzero™

In Fonterra’s latest step

forward in passing on the

benefits of its sustainability

efforts to customers,

it’s excited to launch

carbonzero™ certified

NZMP Organic Butter to the

North American market, the

first product in a portfolio

of carbonzero™ certified

ingredients.

Kelvin Wickham, Fonterra’s

CEO for AMENA, says that

carbonzero ingredients, like

NZMP™ Organic Butter, can

help unlock real benefits for

our customers:

“It helps them to meet their

sustainability targets, signal

environmental values, and

grow brand preference

and market share through

differentiated products.

“According to a new report

New Zealand dairy farming

already has the world’s

lowest on-farm carbon

footprint, approximately

one third of the global

average, putting NZMP™

in a strong position to offer

sustainability solutions that

help customers reduce their

environmental impact, while

claiming an advantage in

the market.”

To become carbonzero™

certified, Fonterra has

partnered with an

independent company

called Toitu Envirocare.

This company measures

the impact of producing

the NZMP Organic Butter,

all the way from farm and

manufacturing, through to

distribution and even the

disposal of packaging by

customers. Understanding

Fonterra’s footprint, means

the Co-operative can offset

its impact with high quality

carbon credits from projects,

including native forest

regeneration in New Zealand

and Gold Standard

renewable energy projects.

Leading the transition to

a low carbon future is a

priority in Fonterra’s strategy.

Achieving carbonzero™

certification for products

like Organic Butter is a great

way to help customers and

the environment in the

short-term, while the Co-op

works towards net zero in

its operations.

Lara Phillips, Senior Manager

of Fonterra Sustainability

Solutions says, “We are

delighted we can offer

NZMP customers a way

to contribute to a lower

carbon future and welcome

the opportunity to work

with them on making

more NZMP ingredients

carbonzero™ certified”.

NZMP™ Organic Butter

carbonzero™ certified

is currently available to

customers in the US.

Overtime, to support

customer needs and

demand, NZMP™ will look

to broaden the portfolio to

more product categories

and regions.

To find out more –

Our Co-op
8

The Co-operative

Difference payment

Fonterra has released the

details of how it will pay

farmers for producing

sustainable, high quality milk

as part of The Co-operative

Difference framework.

From 1 June 2021, up to

10 cents of each farm’s milk

payment will be determined

by the farm’s sustainability

credentials and milk quality.

“Fonterra farmers are already

among the world’s best

in these areas and we’re

really proud of that. The

Co-operative Difference

payment is another way

we can recognise farmers,

while also supporting our

strategy to grow the value

of our New Zealand milk by

responding to increasing

demand around the world for

sustainably-produced dairy,”

says Richard Allen, Group

Director, Farm Source.

“The new payment

recognises farmers who are

already going above and

beyond because they’ve

innovated and invested early,

and it also offers farmers

more encouragement for

taking the steps required

to meet the changing

expectations of customers

and communities, both today

and into the future.”

“We want to reward

the on-farm efforts that

demonstrate our Co-op’s

care for the environment,

animals, people and

communities. It’s these

actions which help ensure

we’re the dairy company

of choice for customers

around the world and for

New Zealand dairy farmers,

for generations to come,”

says Richard.

While The Co-operative

Difference framework was

introduced in 2019, the milk

payment is new to farmers.

The 10 cent Co-operative

Difference payment is made

up of:

• 7 cents per kgMS for

achievement under the

Environment, Co-op &

Prosperity, Animals, and

People & Community focus

areas. Once these have

been achieved;

• 3 cents per kgMS where

Excellence is achieved for

all milk quality parameters

under the Milk Quality

framework.

The Co-operative Difference

payment details:

• Effective from next season,

from 1 June 2021.

• Current Farm Source

Rewards Dollars in The

Co-operative Difference

will be replaced with The

Co-operative Difference

payment.

• The amount and targets

will be set annually by the

Fonterra Board.

• The total amount available

to be paid to farmers

does not change, but a

proportion of the Farmgate

Milk Price will be available

to be redistributed

between farmers to better

reflect individual farm’s

achievement against the

Co-operative Difference

Framework.

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEUUK

DEC JUL JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES

















EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEUUK

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s

















AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN  DEC JUL OCT 

MT s

 

 











AVERAGE

9


Supplementary Information

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU/UK and Australia to January; New Zealand and US to February.

NOTE: Data for EU/UK to December; Australia and US to January; New Zealand to February.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa and Latin America to December; China to January.

SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR JAN OCT

FEB JUL

AUG

MAY

SEP

NOV

DEC JUN

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD  MT

10


Supplementary Information

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

FEBRUARY

2021

FEBRUARY


2020

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2020/21

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2019/20

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

136.5133.52.3%1,207.61,212.9(0.4%)

North Island73.969.85.9%730.7730.10.1%

South Island62.663.7(1.7%)476.9482.9(1.2%)

Australia7.27.7(5.8%)75.977.3(1.8%)

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(16 MARCH 2021)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2020)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

26,056490,744

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

11. 5%(7.1%)

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

4,1313,362

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

37.2%0.7%

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

(4.5%)–

Fonterra GDT results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

11
AMENA

Africa, Middle East, Europe,

North Asia, Americas.

AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products, except

for Reference Products,

produced by the NZ

Ingredients business.

NZMP

New Zealand Milk Products.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.


Glossary

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time

Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.

  • FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update March 2021
    2021-03-31

    • NZMP Organic Butter goes carbonzero™ • On 17 March, Fonterra announced its Interim Results. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Monthly production in New Zealand and Australia up, EU and US down. • New Zealand monthly exports up. Australia and EU exports show strong monthly growth…”

  • FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update May 2021
    2021-05-30

    • Third quarter business update. • Capital structure consultation commences. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • New Zealand, US and EU monthly production up, while Australia down. • US and Australia exports show strong monthly growth. EU exports up while New Zealand monthly export…”

  • FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update January 2021
    2021-01-28

    •Darfield site adds new shift to meet cream cheese demand. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE •December production in New Zealand flat on last year. Australia monthly production flat. US and EU monthly production increased relative to last year. • New Zealand and Australia exports increase…”