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Global Dairy Update August 2021

Operational Update31 August 2021FSFConsumer Staples

• Stirling site moving to 100% renewable thermal energy.
1

Global Dairy

UPDATE

• Low volumes in early season in New Zealand.

US and EU monthly production up. Australia

ends season on lower monthly production.

• New Zealand, Australia and US monthly

exports continue to grow while EU monthly

exports decline.

• China, Asia and Latin America imports

increase. Middle East & Africa monthly

imports decline.

• Early season collections for both New Zealand

and Australia.

• On-farm production and collections together

with plant processing continued in August

despite New Zealand entering a COVID-19

level 4 lockdown.

• Charging up our electric vehicle fleet.

Key Dates

23 September 2021

FY21 Annual Results

Announcement

9 December 2021

Fonterra Co-operative Group

Annual Meeting

13 December 2021

Fonterra Shareholders' Fund

Annual Meeting

AUGUST 2021

%
%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for July 2021

compared to July 2020

Change for July 2021

compared to July 2020

Change for June 2021

compared to June 2020

Change for June 2021

compared to June 2020

Change for the 12 months to

July 2021

Change for the 12 months

to July 2021

Change for the 12 months

to June 2021

Change for the 12 months

to June 2021

2.11.16.6

0.60.42.5

0.8

2.7

2

OUR MARKETS

Global Production

Low volumes in early

season in New Zealand. US

and EU monthly production

up. Australia ends season on

lower monthly production

New Zealand milk

production¹ increased

6.6% on a litres basis, (up

7.3% on milk solids basis)

in July compared to July

last year but represent low

volumes overall this early in

the season.

New Zealand milk

production for the 12 months

to July was 2.7% higher than

last year.

Fonterra collections are

reported for July, see page 5

for details.

Australia milk

production decreased 1.1%

in June compared to June

last year.

Lower head numbers, farm

exits and labour shortages

observed throughout

last season are expected

to continue into the

new season.

Dairy Australia is forecasting

milk production of 0% to 2%

for the 2021/22 season.

Australia milk production for

the 12 months to June was

0.6% higher than last year.

Fonterra collections in

Australia are reported for

July, see page 5 for details.

EU milk production²

increased by 0.8% in June

compared to the same

period last year.

Higher production volumes

were observed in Italy,

Ireland, France and Poland.

EU milk production for the

12 months to June was up by

0.4% compared to the same

period last year, driven by

higher volumes from Ireland,

Italy, Poland and Sweden.

US milk production

increased by 2.1% in July,

compared to the same

period last year.

July production continued

to improve year on year but

was impacted by extreme

temperatures across some

regions and declining herd

sizes due to high feed costs.

Milk production for the

12 months to July was 2.5%

higher compared to the

same period last year.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.

2 Excludes UK.

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

Global Exports

New Zealand, Australia

and US monthly exports

continue to grow while EU

monthly exports decline

Total New Zealand

dairy exports increased

by 8.1%, or 20,507 MT, in

July compared to the same

period last year.

The increase was driven by

sustained high volumes of

WMP and cheese to China.

SMP export volumes to

Southeast Asia also remain

strong. This was partially

offset by lower demand of

AMF and infant formula.

Exports for the 12 months

to July were up by 5.6%, or

190,449 MT, on the previous

comparable period. This

was primarily driven by

WMP, fluid milk product and

cheese.

EU dairy exports

decreased by 4.4%, or

27,675 MT, in May compared

to the same period last year.

May exports were impacted

by lower demand in

butter from the US and

Saudi Arabia, infant formula

from China and Saudi Arabia

and cultured products, down

a combined 26,160  MT.

This was partially offset by

strong volumes of fluid milk

products to China.

Exports for the 12 months

to May were up 2.2%, or

159,314 MT, on the previous

comparable period. Fluid

milk products, whey, cheese

and ice cream were the main

drivers of this growth.

US dairy exports

increased 3.3%, or 7,614  MT,

in June compared to the

same period last year.

Strong demand for SMP from

Mexico, Vietnam and China

as well as whey to China

drove this increase. This

was partially offset by lower

cheese export volumes to

South Korea and Japan.

Exports for the 12 months to

June 2021 were up 9.9%, or

239,834 MT, on the previous

comparable period driven by

whey, SMP, WPC and butter,

up a combined 243,939  MT.

Australia dairy exports

increased by 6.6%, or

5,052 MT, in June compared

to the same period last year.

Continued strong demand,

in WMP and fluid milk

products, up a combined

8,606 MT, are driving this

increase. This was partially

offset by lower export

volumes of whey and SMP,

down 3,511  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to June were up 10.8%, or

78,223 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was predominantly

driven by increases in fluid

milk products, SMP but

partially offset by declines in

infant formula.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

%%%

%%%

Change for July 2021

compared to July 2020

Change for June 2021

compared to June 2020

Change for June 2021

compared to June 2020

Change for May 2021

compared to May 2020

Change for the 12 months

to July 2021

Change for the 12 months

to June 2021

Change for the 12 months

to June 2021

Change for the 12 months

to May 2021

3.36.68.1

10.82.29.9

4.4

5.6

%

%

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

Global Imports

China, Asia and

Latin America imports

increase. Middle East

and Africa monthly

imports decline

Latin America dairy

import volumes¹ increased

11. 5%, or 15,517 MT, in May

compared to the same

period last year.

The increase was driven by

stronger volumes across

most product categories

and more specifically cheese

to Chile, El Salvador and

Mexico, as well as SMP and

WPC to Mexico. This was

partially offset by a decrease

of WMP to Cuba.

Imports for the 12 months

to May were up 6.0%, or

104,155 MT, compared to the

same period last year.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

increased 2.7%, or 9,340  MT,

in May compared to the

same period last year.

The increase was driven by

higher imports in fluid milk

products to Malaysia and

Pakistan, ice cream to the

Philippines, and cultured

products to Pakistan

but partially offset by

lower demand for lactose

and WMP.

Imports for the 12 months

to May were up 3.5%, or

172,064 MT, compared to the

same period last year driven

by large volumes of SMP,

fluid milk products, cheese

and lactose.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 4.4%, or

14,954 MT, in May compared

to the same period last year.

The decrease was driven

predominantly by lower

volumes to Nigeria of WMP,

SMP and infant formula,

and partially offset by

higher imports of fluid milk

products and cheese to Iraq.

Imports for the 12 months

to May were up 5.1%, or

189,840 MT, compared to

May last year driven by

increases in infant formula,

WMP, and cheese, and

partially offset by declines in

butter and AMF.

China dairy import

volumes continued to

increase in July, up 11.8%

or 37,108 MT, compared to

the same period last year

with sustained high demand

across most categories.

Record volumes of WMP

imports continued in July,

sourced primarily from

New Zealand. SMP, butter

and fluid milk products also

showed strong year-on-year

growth. This was partially

offset by a continuing

decline in infant formula.

Imports for the 12 months

to July were up 25.4%, or

833,499 MT, driven by fluid

milk products, whey, WMP

and SMP and offset by

decreases in infant formula.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%

%

%%

%

Change for May 2021

compared to May 2020

Change for July 2021

compared to July 2020

Change for May 2021

compared to May 2020

Change for May 2021

compared to May 2020

Change for the 12 months

to May 2021

Change for the 12 months

to May 2021

Change for the 12 months

to May 2021

11.8

2.711.5

3.55.1

%

Change for the 12 months

to July 2021

25.4

4.4

6.0

%

%

To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%

%%

Season to date

1 July to 31 July

Season to date

1 June to 31 July

Season to date

1 June to 31 July

Season to date

1 June to 31 July

Change for July 2021

compared to July 2020

Change for July 2021

compared to July 2020

Change for July 2021

compared to July 2020

Change for July 2021

compared to July 2020

6.618.04.62.2

6.625.96.40.9

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY



















5

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Milk Collection

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

New Zealand Milk Collection

Fonterra's Australia

collection for July, the first

month of the new season,

was 5.4 million kgMS, a 6.6%

increase on July last season.

The increase was driven

by additional farm milk

collections from new

suppliers joining Fonterra for

the 2021/22 season. Third

party collections were 2.3%

down on July last season.

Total production remains flat

as wetter and cooler than

average winter conditions

reduce pasture growth rates

and consumption.

North Island milk

collection in July was

17.9 million kgMS, 4.6%

higher than July last season.

Season-to-date collection

was 29.8 million kgMS, 6.4%

ahead of last season.

Despite periods of cold

south westerlies and rain,

North Island collections

remained ahead of

last season.

South Island milk

collection in July was

1.6 million kgMS, 18% behind

July last season.

Season-to-date collection

was 4.3 million kgMS, 25.9%

behind last season.

Parts of the South Island

experienced heavy rain and

severe gales, with a red

severe weather warning for

western areas. On-going and

more widespread heavy rain

led to above average soil

moisture levels and pasture

damage in central and lower

South Island, adversely

impacting milk collections.

Fonterra's New Zealand

collection for July was

19.5 million kgMS, 2.2%

higher than the same month

last season.

Season-to-date collection

was 34.1 million kgMS, 0.9%

ahead of last season.

It is still early in the

season and collections

to date represent only

around 2% of full season

forecast  collection.

July began with generally

settled weather, but this was

quickly followed by a series

of severe weather watches

and warnings, particularly in

the South Island.

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To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

AUG  MAR

AUG

OCT

JAN MAR JUN AUG OCT  JAN

JUN





,

, 

,

.

.

.

.

.
PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity

prices and New

Zealand dollar trend

During August the increasing

number of COVID-19 Delta

variant infections recorded

globally resulted in continued

demand for safe haven assets

such as the USD. Furthermore,

the RBNZ’s decision to hold the

OCR at 0.25% weighed on the

NZD, with the NZD declining

towards 68 US cents.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

17 August 2021:

The next trading event will be held on 7 September 2021. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

0.8

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

3,870

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

21.9

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 3,552/MT

1.3

WMP

USD 4,771/MT

4.0

BUTTER

USD 5,791/MT

2.2

AMF

USD 4,184/MT

2.9

CHEDDAR

USD 3,056/MT

0.9

SMP

21,939

MT

LATEST AUCTION

45,223

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
Putting an end to

coal at Sterling

Fonterra has announced

a decarbonisation double

header at its New Zealand

manufacturing sites, with the

official opening of the wood

pellet boiler at Te Awamutu

and the announcement of

a move to wood biomass

at Stirling.

Minster for Energy

and Resources Hon

Dr Megan Woods was at

Te Awamutu where Fonterra

CEO Miles Hurrell made

the announcement late

last month.

Come next August, Stirling

will be running on wood

biomass creating an annual

emissions reduction of

18,500 tonnes of CO₂ – that’s

the equivalent to taking

more than 7,000 cars off

the roads.

General Manager Operations

Lower South Island,

Richard Gray says it’s a huge

decarbonisation milestone

for the Co-op and Stirling will

be the first site powered on

100% renewable energy.

“Sustainability is at the heart

of our strategy, and this

project is something that will

be good for the environment

and local community.”

“As well as the site being

coal-free there are additional

environmental benefits the

move to biomass brings,

including reductions in

wastewater, noise, solid

waste to landfill and air

discharge emissions.

“There are also economic

benefits for the community

– the installation will

contribute more than

$10 million into the

Clutha District, along with

supporting an estimated

10 jobs in the wood

biomass industry.”

“Stirling exports to

customers in 10 countries,

including Japan and

South Korea.”

The wood biomass will

be locally sourced from

Pioneer Energy who are

owned by Central Lakes

Trust and distribute grants

to charitable causes in the

Central Otago region.

Pioneer Energy CEO,

Fraser Jonker says, "Pioneer

Energy is very proud to

be involved with, and to

support, Fonterra’s move

across from coal to biomass

at their facility in Stirling.”

Te Awamutu’s conversion to

wood pellets has resulted

in a 10% reduction in the

Co-op’s coal use, and at

Brightwater at the top of

the South Island, the team is

co-firing wood biomass.

These projects play a

significant part in the work

we’re doing to get out of coal

by 2037. When, combined

with our other energy

efficiency work, they will

reduce our Co-op’s emissions

by 135,000 tonnes, the

equivalent of taking close to

52,000 cars off the road.

Our Performance

Stirling is the latest

plant in our work to get

out of coal by 2037

Our Co-op
8

Charging up our

electric vehicle fleet

As the Co-op works to

support the good work

in sustainability that’s

happening on its dairy farms,

it’s upping the ante on its

fleet of electric vehicles

(EVs).

Chief Operating Officer,

Fraser Whineray, is leading

the charge and says moving

to EVs has positive benefits

for New Zealand.

“As a country, the fastest

growing source of emissions

is road transport – it’s

doubled since 1990 and is

now at the same level as

methane from dairy cows,

which is also a big challenge

for the Co-op.

“Electricity is essentially

made in New Zealand,

and works out to be the

equivalent of just 30 cents

a litre. That’s much cheaper

than using imported liquid

fuels, so it’s important that

as many New Zealanders

who can, do their bit.

“While our bovine team

of 6.3 million are already

the lowest carbon dairy

producers in the world,

there’s still more work to be

done. It requires continued

research, which Fonterra’s

investing in, to get the

methane reductions we

need. In the meantime,

we can make instant

gains with a switch to EVs,

particularly for light vehicles,

because the technology

is much further along in

its development.”

The Co-op is starting with

replacing around 320

light vehicles with EVs as

they come up for regular

replacement by 2023.

“This is an opportunity for

Kiwis, no matter what they

do, or where they live, to

play their part in reducing

national emissions, as well

as reducing the use of

hard-earned Kiwi export

income on importing fuel.

“Finding a solution to the

methane issue is going to

take time. We already have

a solution to the biggest

proportion of New Zealand’s

road transport emissions,

being light vehicles, so we

can make a difference here

right now.

“Our move to EVs will

increase demand for

good, high quality EVs

leading to a pool of quality

second hand vehicles

while also accelerating

the development of

charging stations in rural

New Zealand. We are also

looking to support the

move to electric vehicles for

tankers and trucks, but that

is at a much earlier stage of

development”, says Fraser.

More charging stations

are to be installed at our

manufacturing sites around

the country, including at

our Edendale, Darfield,

Clandeboye and Stirling sites,

where we have received

funding from the Energy

Efficiency and Conservation

Authority (EECA) to help

with installation.

While smaller EVs are

becoming more common

place, the trusty ute (utility

vehicle) and other vehicles

built for more rugged

conditions aren’t yet in

market. Group Director

Farm Source Richard Allen

says the team are working

through what an electrified

fleet could look like.

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL 

JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES

















EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s

















AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT 

MT s















AVERAGE

9


Supplementary Information

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to June; New Zealand and US to July.

NOTE: Data for EU to May; US and Australia to June; New Zealand to July.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa and Latin America to May; China to July.

SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR

JAN

OCT FEB

JUL

AUG

MAY

SEP NOV DEC JUN

,

,
,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,



,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT

QUANTITY SOLD  MT

10


Supplementary Information

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

J U LY

2021

J U LY


2020

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2021/22

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2020/21

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

19.519.12.2%34.133.80.9%

North Island17.917.14.6%29.828.16.4%

South Island1.62.0(18.0%)4.35.8(25.9%)

Australia5.45.16.6%5.45.16.6%

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(17 AUGUST 2021)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2021)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

21,93945,223

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

(28.8%)(27.8%)

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

3,8703,854

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

28.1%26.6%

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

0.8%–

Fonterra GDT results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

11
AMENA

Africa, Middle East, Europe,

North Asia, Americas.

AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products, except

for Reference Products,

produced by the NZ

Ingredients business.

NZMP

New Zealand Milk Products.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.


Glossary

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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