Global Dairy Update August 2021
• Stirling site moving to 100% renewable thermal energy.
1
Global Dairy
UPDATE
• Low volumes in early season in New Zealand.
US and EU monthly production up. Australia
ends season on lower monthly production.
• New Zealand, Australia and US monthly
exports continue to grow while EU monthly
exports decline.
• China, Asia and Latin America imports
increase. Middle East & Africa monthly
imports decline.
• Early season collections for both New Zealand
and Australia.
• On-farm production and collections together
with plant processing continued in August
despite New Zealand entering a COVID-19
level 4 lockdown.
• Charging up our electric vehicle fleet.
Key Dates
23 September 2021
FY21 Annual Results
Announcement
9 December 2021
Fonterra Co-operative Group
Annual Meeting
13 December 2021
Fonterra Shareholders' Fund
Annual Meeting
AUGUST 2021
%
%
%%
%
%
%%
Change for July 2021
compared to July 2020
Change for July 2021
compared to July 2020
Change for June 2021
compared to June 2020
Change for June 2021
compared to June 2020
Change for the 12 months to
July 2021
Change for the 12 months
to July 2021
Change for the 12 months
to June 2021
Change for the 12 months
to June 2021
2.11.16.6
0.60.42.5
0.8
2.7
2
OUR MARKETS
Global Production
Low volumes in early
season in New Zealand. US
and EU monthly production
up. Australia ends season on
lower monthly production
New Zealand milk
production¹ increased
6.6% on a litres basis, (up
7.3% on milk solids basis)
in July compared to July
last year but represent low
volumes overall this early in
the season.
New Zealand milk
production for the 12 months
to July was 2.7% higher than
last year.
Fonterra collections are
reported for July, see page 5
for details.
Australia milk
production decreased 1.1%
in June compared to June
last year.
Lower head numbers, farm
exits and labour shortages
observed throughout
last season are expected
to continue into the
new season.
Dairy Australia is forecasting
milk production of 0% to 2%
for the 2021/22 season.
Australia milk production for
the 12 months to June was
0.6% higher than last year.
Fonterra collections in
Australia are reported for
July, see page 5 for details.
EU milk production²
increased by 0.8% in June
compared to the same
period last year.
Higher production volumes
were observed in Italy,
Ireland, France and Poland.
EU milk production for the
12 months to June was up by
0.4% compared to the same
period last year, driven by
higher volumes from Ireland,
Italy, Poland and Sweden.
US milk production
increased by 2.1% in July,
compared to the same
period last year.
July production continued
to improve year on year but
was impacted by extreme
temperatures across some
regions and declining herd
sizes due to high feed costs.
Milk production for the
12 months to July was 2.5%
higher compared to the
same period last year.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in production –
1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.
2 Excludes UK.
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in exports –
3
OUR MARKETS
Global Exports
New Zealand, Australia
and US monthly exports
continue to grow while EU
monthly exports decline
Total New Zealand
dairy exports increased
by 8.1%, or 20,507 MT, in
July compared to the same
period last year.
The increase was driven by
sustained high volumes of
WMP and cheese to China.
SMP export volumes to
Southeast Asia also remain
strong. This was partially
offset by lower demand of
AMF and infant formula.
Exports for the 12 months
to July were up by 5.6%, or
190,449 MT, on the previous
comparable period. This
was primarily driven by
WMP, fluid milk product and
cheese.
EU dairy exports
decreased by 4.4%, or
27,675 MT, in May compared
to the same period last year.
May exports were impacted
by lower demand in
butter from the US and
Saudi Arabia, infant formula
from China and Saudi Arabia
and cultured products, down
a combined 26,160 MT.
This was partially offset by
strong volumes of fluid milk
products to China.
Exports for the 12 months
to May were up 2.2%, or
159,314 MT, on the previous
comparable period. Fluid
milk products, whey, cheese
and ice cream were the main
drivers of this growth.
US dairy exports
increased 3.3%, or 7,614 MT,
in June compared to the
same period last year.
Strong demand for SMP from
Mexico, Vietnam and China
as well as whey to China
drove this increase. This
was partially offset by lower
cheese export volumes to
South Korea and Japan.
Exports for the 12 months to
June 2021 were up 9.9%, or
239,834 MT, on the previous
comparable period driven by
whey, SMP, WPC and butter,
up a combined 243,939 MT.
Australia dairy exports
increased by 6.6%, or
5,052 MT, in June compared
to the same period last year.
Continued strong demand,
in WMP and fluid milk
products, up a combined
8,606 MT, are driving this
increase. This was partially
offset by lower export
volumes of whey and SMP,
down 3,511 MT.
Exports for the 12 months
to June were up 10.8%, or
78,223 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was predominantly
driven by increases in fluid
milk products, SMP but
partially offset by declines in
infant formula.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
%%%
%%%
Change for July 2021
compared to July 2020
Change for June 2021
compared to June 2020
Change for June 2021
compared to June 2020
Change for May 2021
compared to May 2020
Change for the 12 months
to July 2021
Change for the 12 months
to June 2021
Change for the 12 months
to June 2021
Change for the 12 months
to May 2021
3.36.68.1
10.82.29.9
4.4
5.6
%
%
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in imports –
4
OUR MARKETS
Global Imports
China, Asia and
Latin America imports
increase. Middle East
and Africa monthly
imports decline
Latin America dairy
import volumes¹ increased
11. 5%, or 15,517 MT, in May
compared to the same
period last year.
The increase was driven by
stronger volumes across
most product categories
and more specifically cheese
to Chile, El Salvador and
Mexico, as well as SMP and
WPC to Mexico. This was
partially offset by a decrease
of WMP to Cuba.
Imports for the 12 months
to May were up 6.0%, or
104,155 MT, compared to the
same period last year.
Asia (excluding China)
dairy import volumes¹
increased 2.7%, or 9,340 MT,
in May compared to the
same period last year.
The increase was driven by
higher imports in fluid milk
products to Malaysia and
Pakistan, ice cream to the
Philippines, and cultured
products to Pakistan
but partially offset by
lower demand for lactose
and WMP.
Imports for the 12 months
to May were up 3.5%, or
172,064 MT, compared to the
same period last year driven
by large volumes of SMP,
fluid milk products, cheese
and lactose.
Middle East and Africa
dairy import volumes¹
decreased 4.4%, or
14,954 MT, in May compared
to the same period last year.
The decrease was driven
predominantly by lower
volumes to Nigeria of WMP,
SMP and infant formula,
and partially offset by
higher imports of fluid milk
products and cheese to Iraq.
Imports for the 12 months
to May were up 5.1%, or
189,840 MT, compared to
May last year driven by
increases in infant formula,
WMP, and cheese, and
partially offset by declines in
butter and AMF.
China dairy import
volumes continued to
increase in July, up 11.8%
or 37,108 MT, compared to
the same period last year
with sustained high demand
across most categories.
Record volumes of WMP
imports continued in July,
sourced primarily from
New Zealand. SMP, butter
and fluid milk products also
showed strong year-on-year
growth. This was partially
offset by a continuing
decline in infant formula.
Imports for the 12 months
to July were up 25.4%, or
833,499 MT, driven by fluid
milk products, whey, WMP
and SMP and offset by
decreases in infant formula.
LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA
1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.
%
%
%%
%
Change for May 2021
compared to May 2020
Change for July 2021
compared to July 2020
Change for May 2021
compared to May 2020
Change for May 2021
compared to May 2020
Change for the 12 months
to May 2021
Change for the 12 months
to May 2021
Change for the 12 months
to May 2021
11.8
2.711.5
3.55.1
%
Change for the 12 months
to July 2021
25.4
4.4
6.0
%
%
To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New
Zealand and Australia compared
to the previous season –
%
%%
Season to date
1 July to 31 July
Season to date
1 June to 31 July
Season to date
1 June to 31 July
Season to date
1 June to 31 July
Change for July 2021
compared to July 2020
Change for July 2021
compared to July 2020
Change for July 2021
compared to July 2020
Change for July 2021
compared to July 2020
6.618.04.62.2
6.625.96.40.9
VOLUME M LITRESDAY
JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
5
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Milk Collection
NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA
New Zealand Milk Collection
Fonterra's Australia
collection for July, the first
month of the new season,
was 5.4 million kgMS, a 6.6%
increase on July last season.
The increase was driven
by additional farm milk
collections from new
suppliers joining Fonterra for
the 2021/22 season. Third
party collections were 2.3%
down on July last season.
Total production remains flat
as wetter and cooler than
average winter conditions
reduce pasture growth rates
and consumption.
North Island milk
collection in July was
17.9 million kgMS, 4.6%
higher than July last season.
Season-to-date collection
was 29.8 million kgMS, 6.4%
ahead of last season.
Despite periods of cold
south westerlies and rain,
North Island collections
remained ahead of
last season.
South Island milk
collection in July was
1.6 million kgMS, 18% behind
July last season.
Season-to-date collection
was 4.3 million kgMS, 25.9%
behind last season.
Parts of the South Island
experienced heavy rain and
severe gales, with a red
severe weather warning for
western areas. On-going and
more widespread heavy rain
led to above average soil
moisture levels and pasture
damage in central and lower
South Island, adversely
impacting milk collections.
Fonterra's New Zealand
collection for July was
19.5 million kgMS, 2.2%
higher than the same month
last season.
Season-to-date collection
was 34.1 million kgMS, 0.9%
ahead of last season.
It is still early in the
season and collections
to date represent only
around 2% of full season
forecast collection.
July began with generally
settled weather, but this was
quickly followed by a series
of severe weather watches
and warnings, particularly in
the South Island.
%%%
%
%
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To view more information,
including a snapshot of the
rolling year-to-date results –
%
6
GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE
AUG
MAR
AUG
OCT
JAN MAR JUN AUG OCT
JAN
JUN
,
,
,
.
.
.
.
.
PRICE INDEX
NZD USD
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results
Fonterra GDT sales
by destination:
Dairy commodity
prices and New
Zealand dollar trend
During August the increasing
number of COVID-19 Delta
variant infections recorded
globally resulted in continued
demand for safe haven assets
such as the USD. Furthermore,
the RBNZ’s decision to hold the
OCR at 0.25% weighed on the
NZD, with the NZD declining
towards 68 US cents.
Fonterra GDT results at
last trading event
17 August 2021:
The next trading event will be held on 7 September 2021. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.
Change in Fonterra’s
weighted average product
price from previous event
0.8
Fonterra’s weighted
average product price
(USD/MT)
3,870
USD
Fonterra product quantity
sold on GDT
000’ MT
21.9
NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)
SOUTH EAST ASIA
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
OTHER
USD 3,552/MT
1.3
WMP
USD 4,771/MT
4.0
BUTTER
USD 5,791/MT
2.2
AMF
USD 4,184/MT
2.9
CHEDDAR
USD 3,056/MT
0.9
SMP
21,939
MT
LATEST AUCTION
45,223
MT
FINANCIAL
YEAR‑TO‑DATE
7
Putting an end to
coal at Sterling
Fonterra has announced
a decarbonisation double
header at its New Zealand
manufacturing sites, with the
official opening of the wood
pellet boiler at Te Awamutu
and the announcement of
a move to wood biomass
at Stirling.
Minster for Energy
and Resources Hon
Dr Megan Woods was at
Te Awamutu where Fonterra
CEO Miles Hurrell made
the announcement late
last month.
Come next August, Stirling
will be running on wood
biomass creating an annual
emissions reduction of
18,500 tonnes of CO₂ – that’s
the equivalent to taking
more than 7,000 cars off
the roads.
General Manager Operations
Lower South Island,
Richard Gray says it’s a huge
decarbonisation milestone
for the Co-op and Stirling will
be the first site powered on
100% renewable energy.
“Sustainability is at the heart
of our strategy, and this
project is something that will
be good for the environment
and local community.”
“As well as the site being
coal-free there are additional
environmental benefits the
move to biomass brings,
including reductions in
wastewater, noise, solid
waste to landfill and air
discharge emissions.
“There are also economic
benefits for the community
– the installation will
contribute more than
$10 million into the
Clutha District, along with
supporting an estimated
10 jobs in the wood
biomass industry.”
“Stirling exports to
customers in 10 countries,
including Japan and
South Korea.”
The wood biomass will
be locally sourced from
Pioneer Energy who are
owned by Central Lakes
Trust and distribute grants
to charitable causes in the
Central Otago region.
Pioneer Energy CEO,
Fraser Jonker says, "Pioneer
Energy is very proud to
be involved with, and to
support, Fonterra’s move
across from coal to biomass
at their facility in Stirling.”
Te Awamutu’s conversion to
wood pellets has resulted
in a 10% reduction in the
Co-op’s coal use, and at
Brightwater at the top of
the South Island, the team is
co-firing wood biomass.
These projects play a
significant part in the work
we’re doing to get out of coal
by 2037. When, combined
with our other energy
efficiency work, they will
reduce our Co-op’s emissions
by 135,000 tonnes, the
equivalent of taking close to
52,000 cars off the road.
Our Performance
Stirling is the latest
plant in our work to get
out of coal by 2037
Our Co-op
8
Charging up our
electric vehicle fleet
As the Co-op works to
support the good work
in sustainability that’s
happening on its dairy farms,
it’s upping the ante on its
fleet of electric vehicles
(EVs).
Chief Operating Officer,
Fraser Whineray, is leading
the charge and says moving
to EVs has positive benefits
for New Zealand.
“As a country, the fastest
growing source of emissions
is road transport – it’s
doubled since 1990 and is
now at the same level as
methane from dairy cows,
which is also a big challenge
for the Co-op.
“Electricity is essentially
made in New Zealand,
and works out to be the
equivalent of just 30 cents
a litre. That’s much cheaper
than using imported liquid
fuels, so it’s important that
as many New Zealanders
who can, do their bit.
“While our bovine team
of 6.3 million are already
the lowest carbon dairy
producers in the world,
there’s still more work to be
done. It requires continued
research, which Fonterra’s
investing in, to get the
methane reductions we
need. In the meantime,
we can make instant
gains with a switch to EVs,
particularly for light vehicles,
because the technology
is much further along in
its development.”
The Co-op is starting with
replacing around 320
light vehicles with EVs as
they come up for regular
replacement by 2023.
“This is an opportunity for
Kiwis, no matter what they
do, or where they live, to
play their part in reducing
national emissions, as well
as reducing the use of
hard-earned Kiwi export
income on importing fuel.
“Finding a solution to the
methane issue is going to
take time. We already have
a solution to the biggest
proportion of New Zealand’s
road transport emissions,
being light vehicles, so we
can make a difference here
right now.
“Our move to EVs will
increase demand for
good, high quality EVs
leading to a pool of quality
second hand vehicles
while also accelerating
the development of
charging stations in rural
New Zealand. We are also
looking to support the
move to electric vehicles for
tankers and trucks, but that
is at a much earlier stage of
development”, says Fraser.
More charging stations
are to be installed at our
manufacturing sites around
the country, including at
our Edendale, Darfield,
Clandeboye and Stirling sites,
where we have received
funding from the Energy
Efficiency and Conservation
Authority (EECA) to help
with installation.
While smaller EVs are
becoming more common
place, the trusty ute (utility
vehicle) and other vehicles
built for more rugged
conditions aren’t yet in
market. Group Director
Farm Source Richard Allen
says the team are working
through what an electrified
fleet could look like.
PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
DEC JUL
JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR
LIQUID MILK M LITRES
EXPORTS
AUSTRALIA
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY
MT s
AVERAGE
IMPORTS
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA
ASIACHINA
SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT
MT s
AVERAGE
9
Supplementary Information
Global Dairy Market
The charts on the right
illustrate the year-on-year
changes in imports, exports
and production for a range of
countries that are important
players in global dairy trade.
The absolute size of
the bars represents the
change in imports, exports
or production, relative
to the same period the
previous year.
Averages are shown where
data is complete for the
regions presented.
NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to June; New Zealand and US to July.
NOTE: Data for EU to May; US and Australia to June; New Zealand to July.
NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa and Latin America to May; China to July.
SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR
MAR
JAN
OCT FEB
JUL
AUG
MAY
SEP NOV DEC JUN
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD MT
10
Supplementary Information
Fonterra milk
production
The table on the right
shows Fonterra milk solids
collected in New Zealand
and Australia compared
to the previous season.
MILK COLLECTION
(MILLION KGMS)
J U LY
2021
J U LY
2020
MONTHLY
CHANGE
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2021/22
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2020/21
SEASON-
TO-DATE
CHANGE
Total Fonterra
New Zealand
19.519.12.2%34.133.80.9%
North Island17.917.14.6%29.828.16.4%
South Island1.62.0(18.0%)4.35.8(25.9%)
Australia5.45.16.6%5.45.16.6%
Fonterra GDT results
This table provides more
information on the latest
results, including a snapshot
of the year-to-date results.
LAST TRADING EVENT
(17 AUGUST 2021)
YEAR-TO-DATE
(FROM 1 AUGUST 2021)
Quantity Sold on GDT
(Winning MT)
21,93945,223
Change in Quantity Sold on GDT
over same period last year
(28.8%)(27.8%)
Weighted Average Product Price
(USD/MT)
3,8703,854
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price over same period
last year
28.1%26.6%
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price from previous event
0.8%–
Fonterra GDT results
This chart shows Fonterra
GDT prices and volumes over
the past 12 months.
11
AMENA
Africa, Middle East, Europe,
North Asia, Americas.
AMF
Anhydrous Milk Fat.
BMP
Butter Milk Powder.
DIRA
Dairy Industry Restructuring
Act 2001 (New Zealand).
Farmgate Milk Price
The price for milk supplied in
New Zealand to Fonterra by
farmer shareholders.
Fluid Products
The Fonterra grouping
of fluid milk products
(skim milk, whole milk
and cream – pasteurised
or UHT processed),
concentrated milk products
(evaporated milk and
sweetened condensed milk)
and yoghurt.
GDT
Global Dairy Trade, the
online provider of the twice
monthly global auctions of
dairy ingredients.
kgMS
Kilogram of milk solids, the
measure of the amount of
fat and protein in the milk
supplied to Fonterra.
MPC
Milk Protein Concentrate.
Non-Reference Products
All dairy products, except
for Reference Products,
produced by the NZ
Ingredients business.
NZMP
New Zealand Milk Products.
Reference Products
The dairy products used
in the calculation of the
Farmgate Milk Price, which
are currently WMP, SMP,
BMP, butter and AMF.
Glossary
Season
New Zealand: A period
of 12 months to 31 May
in each year.
Australia: A period of
12 months to 30 June
in each year.
SMP
Skim Milk Powder.
WMP
Whole Milk Powder.
WPC
Whey Protein Concentrate
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time
Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update August 20212021-08-31
“• Stirling site moving to 100% renewable thermal energy. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Low volumes in early season in New Zealand. US and EU monthly production up. Australia ends season on lower monthly production. • New Zealand, Australia and US monthly exports continue to gr…”
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update October 20212021-10-28
“• Fonterra's foodservice business hits $3 billion in annualised revenue. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Lower volumes in New Zealand and Australia. US monthly production flat. • New Zealand exports up, Australia and US monthly exports continue to grow. EU monthly exports decl…”
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update July 20212021-07-29
“•Farmer feedback set to shape revised capital structure proposal. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • S tart of new season in New Zealand. US, EU a nd Australia monthly production up. •A ustralia, New Zealand and US monthly exports continue to grow while EU monthly exports ease. • Increas…”