Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited logo

Global Dairy Update July 2021

Operational Update29 July 2021FCGConsumer Staples

•Farmer feedback set to shape revised capital
structure proposal.

1

Global Dairy

UPDATE

• S

tart of new season in New Zealand. US, EU

a

nd Australia monthly production up.

•A

ustralia, New Zealand and US monthly

exports continue to grow while EU monthly

exports ease.


Increase in imports across China, Asia and

Latin America. Middle East and Africa monthly

imports ease.

•F

onterra's New Zealand milk collection

for the first month of the 2021/22 season

was 14.6 million kgMS, less than 1% of the

full season.


Fonterra’s Australian collection reached

105.8 million kgMS for the full 2020/21 season

to 30 June 2021, a 1.8% decrease compared to

last season.

•Cow manure to fire up the barbecue.

Key Dates

31 July 2021

End of Financial Year 2021

23 September 2021

FY21 Annual Results

Announcement

December 2021

FCG/FSF Annual Meetings

J U LY 2 0 2 1

%
%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for June 2021

compared to June 2020

Change for June 2021

compared to June 2020

Change for May 2021

compared to May 2020

Change for May 2021

compared to May 2020

Change for the 12 months to

June 2021

Change for the 12 months

to June 2021

Change for the 12 months

to May 2021

Change for the 12 months

to May 2021

2.92.61.8

1.10.42.5

2.3

2.6

2

OUR MARKETS

Global Production

Start of the new season

in New Zealand. US, EU

and Australia monthly

production up

New Zealand milk

production¹ increased 1.8%

on a litres basis, (up 1.6%

on milk solids basis) in June

compared to June last year.

June typically represents

about 1% of the total

season’s production.

New Zealand milk

production for the 12 months

to June was 2.6% higher than

last year.

Fonterra collections are

reported for June, see page 5

for details.

Australia milk

production increased 2.6%

in May compared to May

last year.

Increasing farmer confidence

and good seasonal

conditions are yet to

materialise into significant

milk growth primarily due to

lower herd numbers, farm

exits and labour shortage.

Dairy Australia is forecasting

milk production to be -1% to

+1% for the 2020/21 season.

Australia milk production for

the 12 months to May was

1.1% higher than last year.

Fonterra collections in

Australia are reported for

June, see page 5 for details.

EU milk production²

continued to improve and

increased by 2.3% in May

compared to the same

period last year.

Strong volumes were

observed in Italy, (up 10.6%)

on the back of very low

volumes last year, and

increases in Ireland up 6.1%,

Poland up 1.5% and Spain

up 1.0%.

EU milk production for the

12 months to May was up by

0.4% compared to the same

period last year, driven by

higher volumes from Ireland,

Poland, Italy and Sweden.

US milk production

increased by 2.9% in June,

compared to the same

period last year.

June production continued

to grow year on year, albeit

at a slower pace, following

extreme heat in some

regions. A contraction in

herd size was also observed

following more than 12

months of expansion as a

result of higher input costs.

Milk production for the 12

months to June was 2.5%

higher compared to the

same period last year.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.

2 Excludes UK.

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

Global Exports

Australia, New Zealand

and US monthly exports

continue to grow while EU

monthly exports ease

Total New Zealand dairy

exports increased 19.6% or

51, 642 MT, in June compared

to the same period last year.

The increase was driven by

record volumes of WMP, up

49,558 MT year-on-year, or

45%, to China and South

East Asia.

Exports for the 12 months

to June were up by 4.5%, or

153,613 MT, on the previous

comparable period. This was

primarily driven by WMP,

fluid milk products and

cheese but partially offset

by declines in SMP, AMF and

infant formula.

EU dairy exports

decreased by 0.9%, or

6,030 MT, in April compared

to the same period last year.

April exports saw lower

demand for infant formula,

cultured products, SMP and

butter. This was partially

offset by strong volumes

of fluid milk products

and cheese.

Exports for the 12 months

to April were up 2.8%, or

197,726 MT, on the previous

comparable period. Fluid

milk products, whey, cheese

and lactose were the main

drivers of this growth, up a

combined 364,439 MT. It was

partially offset by declines

in SMP, infant formula, MPC

and MPI.

US dairy exports

increased 10.8%, or

25,097 MT, in May compared

to the same period last year.

Strong demand for SMP

from Mexico and Algeria

are driving this increase.

Shipments to China of

whey, SMP and fluid milk

products also strengthened

in May. Partially offsetting

this increase was a decrease

in cheese export volumes

of 4,408 MT, or 12%, on the

back of rising prices.

Exports for the 12 months to

May 2021 were up 11.9%, or

281,232 MT on the previous

comparable period, driven by

SMP, whey, WPC and cheese,

up a combined 267,303  MT.

Australia dairy exports

increased by 43.6%, or

23,398 MT, in May compared

to the same period last year.

Continued strong demand,

primarily from China, in fluid

milk products, up 5,795  MT,

SMP up 5,628 MT, WMP

up 4,884 MT and cheese,

up 1,782 MT are driving

this increase.

Exports for the 12 months

to May were up 13.6%, or

97,546 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was predominantly

driven by increases in fluid

milk products, SMP and

butter but partially offset by

declines in infant formula.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

%%%

%%%

Change for June 2021

compared to June 2020

Change for May 2021

compared to May 2020

Change for May 2021

compared to May 2020

Change for April 2021

compared to April 2020

Change for the 12 months

to June 2021

Change for the 12 months

to May 2021

Change for the 12 months

to May 2021

Change for the 12 months

to April 2021

10.843.619.6

13.62.811.9

0.9

4.5

%

%

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

Global Imports

Increase in imports

across China, Asia and

Latin America. Middle

East and Africa monthly

imports

ease

Latin America dairy

import volumes¹ increased

3.0%, or 3,831 MT, in April

compared to the same

period last year.

The increase was driven by

stronger volumes across

most product categories, in

particular, cheese to Mexico

and Chile, WMP to Peru, and

WPC to Mexico. This was

partially offset by a large

decrease in SMP to Mexico.

Imports for the 12 months

to April were up 4.3% or

75,042 MT compared to the

same period last year.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

increased 17.0 % or

65,077 MT, in April compared

to the same period last year.

The increase was driven

by higher imports across

most categories. There were

higher volumes of SMP to

the Philippines and Vietnam

and lactose to Nepal.

Imports for the 12 months

to April were up 2.7%, or

126,250 MT, compared to the

same period last year, driven

by higher volumes of SMP,

lactose and cheese.

Middle East and

Africa

dairy import vol

umes¹

decreased 0.1%

or 293 MT in

April compared to the same

period last year.

The decrease was driven

predominantly by lower

volumes of SMP and WMP

to Nigeria and Algeria but

partially offset by higher

imports of fluid milk

products to Iraq.

I

mports for the 12 months

t

o April were up 3.9%, or

148,923 MT

, compared to

the same period last year,

driven by increases in WMP,

infant formula and SMP, and

partially offset by declines

in fluid milk products

and butter.

China dairy import

volumes increased by

19.7 %, or 54,205 MT, in

June compared to June

last year and marked a

record import month for

June as China continues to

promote the consumption of

dairy products.

Strong volumes of WMP

imports continued in June,

sourced primarily from

New Zealand as well as

Uruguay and Australia.

Fluid milk products and

SMP also contributed to the

import growth.

Imports for the 12 months

to June were up 26.1% or

843,361 MT, driven by fluid

milk products, whey, SMP

and WMP.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%

%

%%

%

Change for April 2021

compared to April 2020

Change for June 2021

compared to June 2020

Change for April 2021

compared to April 2020

Change for April 2021

compared to April 2020

Change for the 12 months

to April 2021

Change for the 12 months

to April 2021

Change for the 12 months

to April 2021

19.7

17.03.0

2.73.9

%

Change for the 12 months

to June 2021

26.1

0.1

4.3

%

%

To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%

%%

For the 2021/20 Season

compared  to the previous season

Season to date

1 June to 30 June

Season to date

1 June to 30 June

Season to date

1 June to 30 June

Change for June 2021

compared to June 2020

Change for June 2021

compared to June 2020

Change for June 2021

compared to June 2020

Change for June 2021

compared to June 2020

13.730.19.20.9

1.830.19.20.9

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY



















5

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Milk Collection

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

New Zealand Milk Collection

Fonterra's Australia

collection in June was

5.9 million kgMS, a 13.7%

decrease on June last season.

Farm milk collections were

reduced as isolated storms

and flooding impacted

production in Victoria. Third-

party volumes were also

actively reduced.

Full season collections were

1.8% down on last season,

with favourable on-farm

conditions throughout

stabilising milk production.

North Island milk

collection in June was

12 million kgMS, 9.2% higher

than June last season.

June collections benefitted

from unseasonably warm

weather. Much needed rain

was seen by most of the

North Island.

South Island milk

collection in June was

2.6 million kgMS, 30.1%

behind June last season.

Although a large variance

in percentage terms, South

Island volumes are low at

this time of the season.

The central and lower South

Island saw significant rain in

June and this, coupled with

frosty mornings, impacted

milk flows.

Fonterra's New Zealand

collection for June was

14.6 million kgMS, 0.9%

lower than the same month

last season.

As is normal for this time of

the season, collections for

June represent less than 1%

of the full season forecast.

%%%

%

%

%%%
%%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

JUL FEB JUL SEP DEC FEB  MAY  JUL  SEP DEC MAY 





, 

,

,

.

.

.

.

.

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity

prices and New

Zealand dollar trend

The NZD declined towards 69 US

cents as a global resurgence of

COVID-19 infections saw

increased demand for safe haven

assets such as USD; a more

pronounced decline was curtailed

as increasing inflationary

pressures in New Zealand

resulted in higher interest rates,

which in turn supported the NZD.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

20 July 2021:

The next trading event will be held on 3 August 2021. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

2.2

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

3,896

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

21.6

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 2,978/MT

5.2

SMP

USD 4,022/MT

1.9

CHEDDAR

USD 4,419/MT

0.9

BUTTER

USD 5,615/MT

0.3

AMF

USD 3,730/MT

3.5

WMP

21,588

MT

LATEST AUCTION

667,393

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
Farmer feedback set to

shape revised capital

structure proposal

With the first phase of

Fonterra’s capital structure

consultation now complete,

the Co-op is drawing up a

revised proposal that aims to

reflect farmers’ views.

A number of changes are

being considered to the

preferred option initially put

forward in the Consultation

Booklet in May – including

adjusting the proposed

minimum shareholding

requirement for farmers

and enabling sharemilkers

and contract milkers to

own shares.

“It’s a good time for the

Board to step back and

reflect on the feedback as

most farmers will now be

busy with calving. Once

they’ve come through this

particularly busy time of

the season, we’ll be ready

to consult on the updated

proposal,” says Chairman

Peter McBride.

Consultation has been

extensive to date,

starting with the initial

communication on 6 May

and the Consultation Booklet

being sent to every farmer

owner. Since then:

• Directors have held 90

farmer meetings, attended

events such as the My

Connect conference

and Field Days as well

as leading seven online

webinars and speaking with

many farmers directly.

• Over 5,000 farmers have

directly engaged through

feedback channels, in

addition to discussing the

options with each other.

• Members of Fonterra’s

Board and management

have also been talking

with other groups such as

the Co-operative Council

(formerly the Shareholders’

Council), the Fonterra

Shareholders’ Fund, the

Government, major banks

and rural professionals.

This engagement

will continue as the

consultation progresses.

“We would like to thank our

farmer owners for getting

involved and approaching

the consultation with open

minds,” says McBride.

“We also want to

acknowledge the uncertainty

that comes along with us

considering changes to

our capital structure and

the significant challenges

that it’s creating for some

farmers. The best way to

give certainty is to ensure

we have a full discussion

as a Co-op and get to a

quality outcome.

“The Board maintains

its belief that, in a flat or

potentially declining milk

environment, making

changes early will put us

in the best position to

provide farmers with more

flexibility while protecting

farmer ownership and

strengthening our Co-op’s

financial sustainability.”

Summary of farmer

feedback

Many farmers said that

additional information

on the Co-op’s business

strategy and future

performance would help

them form a clearer view on

capital structure.

“In August and September,

we will provide further

information on our long-

term strategy including the

types of activities we will

invest in, the returns we are

targeting, and the measures

against which we will track

our progress.”

McBride says farmers’

views have been varied and

heartfelt, but with some clear

themes coming through.

“We will seek to cater for

the diversity within our

ownership base, but it is

impossible to incorporate

every piece of feedback.

As a Co-op, we need to

be pragmatic and open to

compromise in order to

find a way forward together

that is in our best long-

term interests.”

A summary of the feedback

is available here, while

a high-level overview

of alternative proposals

submitted by farmers is

available here.

Proposed areas for change

The Board is considering

a number of changes as it

thinks about what a final

proposal could look like.

These include:

• Setting the minimum

shareholding requirement

at 33% of milk supply (or

1 share per 3 kgMS), rather

than 25% (or 1 share per

4 kgMS) as originally set

out in the preferred option.

• Enabling sharemilkers

and contract milkers to

hold shares if the Co-op

moved permanently to a

farmer-only market.

• Extending the entry time-

frame from five to six years.

• Extending exit time-frames

for all farmer owners on the

date of the vote to up to 10

or 15 years, including those

who have already ceased

in the past few seasons but

who still hold shares.

• Reviewing the market

maker role and looking

further at how potential

share buy-back options

might support liquidity in a

farmer-only market.

• Maintaining the share

maximum at 4x milk

supply to also help

support liquidity.

“We have also reconsidered

voting rights in light of some

feedback and at this stage

our preference is for voting

to continue to follow share-

backed supply as it currently

does,” adds McBride.

Next steps for consultation

Fonterra is committed to

moving as quickly as it can

through the capital structure

review while also taking the

time needed to consider

all views.

Over the next couple of

months, the Co-op plans

to do surveys and hold

focus groups to ask farmers

specific questions and test

different aspects of the

potential changes.

“This will help us as we

continue to develop a

more detailed proposal to

present to farmers around

the time of our annual

results in late September for

further consultation. At this

stage, we are still aiming for

a farmer vote at our Annual

Meeting, which will be

held in December.”

Our Performance

For further information –

Our Co-op
8

Cow manure to fire up

the barbecue

A study between Fonterra,

Beca, Firstgas Group and

EECA has found using

organic waste is a viable,

untapped solution to

provide an alternative to

New Zealand’s current

residential gas supplies,

with the potential to replace

nearly 20% of the country’s

total gas usage by 2050.

Biogas is created by

anaerobic digestion, where

bacteria breaks down organic

matter (such as food waste

or cow manure) to create a

gas, which, once cleaned, can

be used in existing pipeline

networks, appliances and

equipment, while saving up

to 19 times the emissions.

Fonterra already has

biodigesters at its Tirau

and Darfield sites where

bugs work to process fats

and proteins in wastewater,

cleaning the wastewater and

creating a gas. As well as

creating a gas there’s also a

nutrient dense product that

can be spread to paddocks

and crops as fertiliser.

Fonterra Head of Energy

and Climate, Linda Mulvihill

says the study provides

another potential option to

help the Co-operative get

to net zero emissions by

2050 “We’re committed to

playing our part to help the

country transition to a low

carbon future.

“We know the more

alternative energy sources

we have, the faster we will

be able to transition our

manufacturing operations

onto renewable energy

sources and off coal. This

study is a good example

of how government and

industry can work together

– sharing science, expertise

and experience – we can find

solutions for the good of

New Zealand.”

The Co-op recently

committed to getting out

of coal at its manufacturing

sites by 2037. Nine sites out

of 28 currently use coal, with

Te Awamutu being converted

to wood pellets last season

to reduce Fonterra’s coal

use by around 10 per cent,

the equivalent of taking

32,000 cars off the road.

Biodigester at Fonterra’s Darfield site

To read the Executive

Summary –

To read the full study –

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL 

JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES

















EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s

















AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT 

MT s















AVERAGE

9


Supplementary Information

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to May; New Zealand and US to June.

NOTE: Data for EU to April; US and Australia to May; New Zealand to June.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa and Latin America to April; China to June.

SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR

JAN

OCT FEB

JUL

AUG MAY

SEP NOV DEC JUN

,

,
,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,



,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT

QUANTITY SOLD  MT

10


Supplementary Information

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

JUNE

2021

JUNE


2020

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2021/22

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2020/21

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

14.614.8(0.9%)14.614.8(0.9%)

North Island12.011. 09.2%12.011. 09.2%

South Island2.63.8(30.1%)2.63.8(30.1%)

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

JUNE

2021

JUNE


2020

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2020/21

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2019/20

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Australia5.96.8(13. 7%)105.8107.8(1.8%)

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(20 JULY 2021)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2020)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

21,588667,393

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

(7.3%)(3.0%)

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

3,8963,562

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

20.5%9.0%

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

(2.2%)–

Fonterra GDT results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

11
AMENA

Africa, Middle East, Europe,

North Asia, Americas.

AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products, except

for Reference Products,

produced by the NZ

Ingredients business.

NZMP

New Zealand Milk Products.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.


Glossary

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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  • FSF — Fonterra Shareholders' Fund: Global Dairy Update July 2021
    2021-07-29

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    2021-06-29

    •Clean sweep at New Zealand Dairy Industry Awards . 1 Global Dairy UPDATE •New Zealand finishes full season up on previous season. US and EU monthly production up, Australia flat. • Incr ease in monthly exports observed across all regions. • China monthly imports continue to gr…”

  • FSF — Fonterra Shareholders' Fund: Global Dairy Update May 2021
    2021-05-30

    • Third quarter business update. • Capital structure consultation commences. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • New Zealand, US and EU monthly production up, while Australia down. • US and Australia exports show strong monthly growth. EU exports up while New Zealand monthly export…”