Investor Presentation
Genesis Energy
Jarden Australasian Decarbonisation Conference
Marc England
Chief Executive
Genesis Energy Overview
,
customers
22% electricity market share
38% gas market share
19% LPG market share
Dividend policy :
Genesis’ intention is to provide shareholders with a consistent, reliable and
attractive dividend. The company aims to pay out between 70% and 90% of
its free cash flow.
FY22 Guidance:
$420 million to $440 million EBITDAF subject to normal hydrological
conditions, any material one-off expenses or other unforeseen circumstances.
Key Information
Revenue (FY21): NZ$3.2 billion
EBITDAF (FY21):NZ$358 million
Gross Dividend Yield *: 7.1%
Share Price *: NZ$3.25
Market Capitalisation*: NZ$3.4 billion
Credit Rating: BBB+ (Standard &
Poors)
* Calculation as of 29 October 2021
16.40
16.60
16.90
17.05
17.20
17.40
15
FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21
Dividends (CPS)
Dividend History
Financial Performance
New Zealand Regulatory Comparison
New ZealandAustraliaUnited Kingdom
•Legislated net-zero emissions by 2050
with near unanimous support in
Parliament
•50% net carbon reductions by 2030
•Electricity sector 5% of emissions
•Major emissions from agriculture,
industrial and transport sectors
•Mandatory emissions trading scheme
since 2010
•Recently committed to net-zero by 2050
after considerable political debate
•Electricity sector accounts for 32% of
emissions
•Climate change regulations are highly
political and have frequently changed
•Emissions trading scheme introduced then
revoked
•Net zero target by 2050 and target of 78%
reduction by 2035
•Transport largest emitting sector
•Electricity sector seen as an enabler not
an obstacle to emissions reductions
•Electricity market largely unchanged
since 1990s de-regulation
•Already 85% renewable; expected to
bemore than 95% renewable by 2030
•No retail price caps
•Heavy and disjointed mix of federal and
state policies
•Mixture of subsidies and interventions to
induce renewable generation
•Regulated solar feed-in tariffs
•Frequent negative wholesale pricing
•Retail price caps set by state
•Government direct investment in electricity
generation
•Subsidies for wind, solar and nuclear
•Retail price caps set by regulator
Climate Regulation
Electricity Regulation
Political System
•Proportional representation system,
frequentmulti-party governments
•One house, no upper house or states
•Bicameral Parliamentary system
•Less predictable regulatory environment
•Bicameral Parliament system nationally
•Federal system across six states
New Zealand’s Climate Commitments and Emissions Reduction Plan
•New Zealand has recently announced an increase in its Nationally
Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement.
•The new NDC is a 50% reduction of gross 2005 levels by 2030 (up
from 30%) and is consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5
degrees.
•The provisional emissions budget for the new NDC is 571 Mt, down
from 623 Mt.
The Government has released a draft Emissions Reduction Plan to set the
direction to reduce emissions across New Zealand. The plan includes:
•Developing an energy strategy and a renewable energytarget.
•Developing a plan to decarbonisethe industrial sector. This includes a
national direction for industrial emissions and a ban on coal boilers.
•Identifying the level of support the Government could provide for the
development of low-emissions fuels, such as bioenergyand
hydrogen, to support decarbonisation of industrial heat, electricity
and transport.
•Supporting the regulatory environment for electricity distribution
Source: Ministry of the Environment (2021)
New Zealand Gross Greenhouse Gas Emissions (2019)
Purpose-led: Empowering New Zealand's sustainable future
Navigate the transition
Build for the future
Deliver more from our core
Empowering
New Zealand’s
sustainable
future
Our Strategy into the 2020s
Breaking down our purpose
Enabling New Zealand to
make lower carbon choices
Playing our part as
individualsfor a more
sustainable future
Leading a sustainable
business in NZ
Empowering New Zealand’s Sustainable Future
2,813 2,813 2,813
450 450
1,350
2,200
2,455
850
1,507
1,312 1,312
6,775 6,775 6,775
Generation 5 Yr Average20252030
Backup Thermal
GWh
PORTFOLIO CHANGES ASSUMING FLAT DEMAND
Baseload Thermal
Hydro
Genesis Renewable Generation (circa)
42%68%81%
83%
New Zealand
Renewable Generation (circa)
90%93%
The Future-gen strategy will displace baseload thermal
WaipipiWindfarm
Planned Renewables
New renewables cheaper than current thermal options
Coal Generation Expected To Rapidly Decline From FY22
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25
kT
ActualForecastWet ScenarioDry Scenario
-
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26
GWh per annum
WaipipiKaiwaikaweTauharaSolar Development
Future-gen Portfolio Pipeline
•Genesis has committed to three major renewable projects to progress our
Future-gen strategy:
•The WaipipiWind Farm PPA became fully operational in March 2021 and
is expected to provide 450 GWh of energy.
•KaiwaikawePPA will provide an additional 230 GWh of renewable
energy. The Northland location will provide generation close to demand
and with a favourable GWAP.
•TauharaP PApartnership with Contact to support the development of 1.3
TWhof geothermal plant. Genesis has contracted 41% of the output
capacity for the first 10 years.
•Genesis is to become co-developer of large scale solarin New Zealandand
intends to build up to 500MW of solar capacity.
FY25 savings assume a portfolio fuel cost of $8/GJ and carbon at $70/tonne
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
FY21FY22FY25
$m
Future-gen Cost Savings
Genesis has committed to an ambitious Science Based Target to reduce
carbon emissions
Target Year
1
:
Reduce direct emissions
Scope 1 & 2
Reduce indirect emissions
Scope 3
%
1.Target is based on our FY20 as the base year.
2.Combined scope 1, 2 & 3
Reduce emissions
2
by at least
1.2 million tonnes
Reduction for 1.5°CGenesis ambitionRemaining emissions
%
Investor relations enquiries
Tim McSweeney
GM Investor Relations & Market Risk
+64 27 200 5548
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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