Meridian Energy Limited Investor Presentation
Release
M e r i d i a n E n e r g y L i m i t e d ( A R B N 1 5 1 8 0 0 3 9 6 ) A c o m p a n y i n c o r p o r a t e d i n N e w Z e a l a n d
L e v e l 2 , 5 5 L a d y E l i z a b e t h L a n e , P O B o x 1 0 8 4 0 , W e l l i n g t o n 6 1 4 3
m e r i d i a n e n e r g y . c o . n z
Stock Exchange Listings NZX (MEL) ASX (MEZ)
Meridian Energy investor presentation
11 November 2021
Attached is a presentation Meridian Energy will be making at the upcoming UBS
Australasia Conference.
ENDS
Neal Barclay
Chief Executive
Meridian Energy Limited
For investor relations queries, please contact:
Owen Hackston
Investor Relations Manager
021 246 4772
For media queries, please contact:
Polly Atkins
External Communications Manager
021 174 1715
NOVEMBER 2021
2021 Investor Presentation
2
New Zealand electricity market
NOVEMBER 2021
2021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION
3
New Zealand electricity market
A reliable, affordable and environmentally
sustainable electricity system
A well functioning competitive market with high
level of renewable resources and rational
competition
Vertical integration is the prevailing market
structure
Wholesale and retail market regulation provided
by an independent regulator – The Electricity
Authority (EA)
EA’s mandate is to deliver efficient market
operation, security of supply, promote
competition
No price controls, the non-competitive
transmission and distribution sectors have
regulated rates of return
NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION
53%
18%
1%
1%
6%
0%
8%
13%
Annual generation
Hydro
Geothermal
Biogas
Wood
Wind
Solar
Oil
Coal
Gas
Waste Heat
4
New Zealand electricity market
NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION
5major
generators
(all listed, 3
majority
Govt owned)
1transmission grid
owner (state owned)
1big industrial user
(Rio Tinto/Sumitomo
smelter), ~13% of
national demand
29distribution
businesses (various
ownership structures)
44retail brands
2.1million
consumers
(41 TWh pa)
32%
24%
6%
37%
1%
Annual consumption
Residential
Commercial
Agriculture
Industrial
Other
Sources: Electricity Authority and Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment
(June 2021)
32%
24%
7%
35%
2%
Annual consumption
Residential
Commercial
Agriculture
Industrial
Other
Agriculture includes forestry and fishing
(June 2021)
5
New Zealand electricity market
New Zealand’s hydro generation is managed against
limited controlled storage
Bulk of hydro inflow is anti-correlated to winter demand
peak
Thermal capacity and fuel storage has historically
managed potential hydro inflow deficit and other
renewable intermittency
Efficient and well-functioning wholesale market manages
this supply risk
Significant oversupply had existed in the market, older
thermal plant closure has brought better balance
Demand growth in the last decade has been modest,
strong outlook from decarbonisation
$2b of new renewable builds are being progressed
NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION
-2,000
-1,000
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
GeothermalSolar (Grid)WindHydroThermalSolar (Roof)Retired
Thermal
Retired
Renewables
Installed generation [MW]
New generation capacity to 2050
FY2041-50
FY2031-40
FY2021-30
6
Possible future market outcomes
Existing generation plant retirement (~3GW) will
drive significant new investment
Coupled with significant demand growth
(decarbonisation), could see 8-10GW+ built by
2050
Renewable costs will continue to decline
Renewable generation reaches 95%+
Consumer will play a bigger role in markets
Flexibility will be critical to solving NZ’s dry year
risk
Demand response solutions with some gas
capacity can achieve a balanced outcome
Long-term system prices approach pre 2018 gas
stress levels, higher price volatility from greater
prevalence of wind and solar
NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Meridian modelling using two scenarios (both assume 2024 NZAS
exit):
1.Evolution –modest decarbonisationand ETS pricing, steady
demand-side technology growth, thermal peaking
2.Revolution –high decarbonisationand ETS pricing, strong
demand-side technology growth, thermal retirement,
dispatchable demand
Source: Meridian
7
New Zealand policy and regulation
Current Electricity Authority (EA) focus
Implemented new trading conduct provisions, in effect on 30 June 2021
Published a review of wholesale market competition in the wholesale market for the period
2018 to early 2021:
Confirms that high wholesale electricity prices over the last three years, reflect tight
supply and demand conditions, and natural gas scarcity for electricity generation
In Meridian’s view, included erroneous modelling and incorrect speculation on the nature
of the NZAS contract and market response and impacts from a potential closure of the
smelter
Consultation to December 2021, then possibly again on potential code changes
NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION
9 August 2021 power outage reviews
Initial EA review (complete) with recommendations to address issues found withTranspower’s communication and load management
processes
A second, broader EA review (now underway) of all roles in the sector, including generators
The EA considering a claim lodged by Electric Kiwi and HaastEnergy Trading that Genesis and Contact breached the new trading
conduct provisions of the Code
The EA investigating whether the events of 9 August 2021 constituted an undesirable trading situation
A wide-ranging review by MBIE on instruction from the Minister of Energy
8
New Zealand policy and regulation
Climate Change Commission Final Advice
Released in June 2021, final advice on 2022-35 emissions budgets
Proposes deeper emissions cuts in first two budget periods than earlier
draft advice
Recommends major expansion in the electricity system needs to start
immediately
Considers replacing 100% renewable electricity target with achieving 95%-
98% by 2030, with gas to provide flexibility until at least 2035
Government has until May 2022 to set the first three emissions budgets out
to 2035 and release the country’s first emissions reduction plan with
detailed policies
Following the draft final advice, Government has introduced a Clean Car
Discount effective 1 July 2021
And have raised the cost containment reserve price in the ETS from $50 to
$70 and the price floor from $20 to $30 (both from 2022 onwards with
10%/5% plus inflation annual increases thereafter)
And started consultation on reforms to the industrial allocation in the
Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)
NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Source: He Poua RangiClimate Change Commission
116
82
67
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
FY20 actualFY21 actualnew TPM
(FY24)
$M
Meridian's NZ transmission costs
Transmission Pricing Methodology (TPM)
EA published final TPM guidelines in June 2020
Replaces current HVDC and RCPD charges with
benefit-based and residual charges
Transpowerreleased its proposed new TPM in August
2021
EA currently consulting on the full proposed TPM
With the aim for a new TPM to take effect for
prices from 1 April 2023
Trustpower’sjudicial review was heard in the High
Court in October 2021, decision has been reserved
9
New Zealand policy and regulation
Meridian actual
Meridian actual
Transpower
estimate
assuming 1 April 2023
implementation
Source: Meridian, Transpower
NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
3,200
3,400
Jan
20
Feb
20
Mar
20
Apr
20
May
20
Jun
20
Jul
20
Aug
20
Sep
20
Oct
20
Nov
20
Dec
20
Jan
21
Feb
21
Mar
21
Apr
21
May
21
Jun
21
Jul
21
Aug
21
Sep
21
Oct
21
Nov
21
Dec
21
Jan
22
Feb
22
Mar
22
Apr
22
May
22
Jun
22
Jul
22
Aug
22
Sep
22
USD
LME prices and 12 month forward forecasts
actual priceforecast Jan 20forecast jun 20forecast Jan 21forecast Jul 21forecast Nov 21
10
New Zealand AluminiumSmelter (Tiwai Point)
NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Revised NZAS contract
400MW
172MW
14Jan
2021
1 Jan
2022
1 Jan
2023
1 Jan
2024
31 Dec
2024
no termination right (except terminal force majeure)
NZAS termination right with 6 months notice (terminal FM also applies)
Existing 4
th
potline contract (currently suspended)
50MW
31 Jan 22 current suspension period ends
1 Feb 22 – 31 Mar 21 recommencement notice permitted
1 Apr 22 – 31 Dec 22 recommencement/extended suspension
31 Dec 22 contract ends
2 month termination right
NZAS
Strategic
Review
(Oct 19)
Rio
terminate
NZAS
contract
revised
NZAS
contract
agreed
Source: Meridian, HARBOR Aluminium
572MW CfD
exit contract
with Meridian
terminating 31
December 2024
11
Meridian Energy
NOVEMBER 2021
2021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION
NZ$12b company, one of NZ’s largest listed
company, 51% Government owned
Largest of five listed New Zealand retailer
generators
Strong environmental, social and governance focus
40% of New Zealand generation covered by a price
guarantee contract with Rio Tinto/Sumitomo’s
New Zealand aluminium smelter, ending 31
December 2024
12
About Meridian
NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION
HARAPAKI
(construction)
355k
electricity
customer
connections
144k
electricity
customer
connections
46k
gas customer
connections
New Zealand’s largest generator, all production
from renewable sources
Seven big hydro stations – flexible plant with the
country’s largest storage
With low operating costs and capital needs
Five New Zealand wind farms and proven success
operating in a high wind environment
Backed with more than a decade of construction
and operational experience
Typical long generation position to manage
variable hydro inflows
Vertically integrated Australian business currently
under ownership review
13
About Meridian
NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION
47,279
44,359
32,475
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
tCO2e
Financial Year ended 30 June
2030 emissions target (scope 1-3)
actualtarget
14
Sustainability at Meridian
NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Source: Meridian
Net Zero
Carbon
across
group
emissions
Halving
2019
emissions
by 2030
Our Material Topics
EnvironmentalSocialGovernance
Action on climate changeElectricity pricingSustainability leadership
Pipeline of generation optionsSupport for vulnerable
customers
Good governance, ethical
behaviourand reporting
Impact on waterDistributed energy resourcesContribution to public policy
Impact on biodiversityFinancial impacts of climate
change
Cyber security
In FY21
Climate Change Commission report releasedsets policy direction for electrification
Launched Process Heat Electrification Programme157 GWh in MOU’s, 14 GWh contracted
Harapakiwind farm construction commencedclean energy for 70,000 homes
Launched AC charging network20 of 250 chargers installed
60,000 stems planted under Forever Forest
programme
1.5 million trees in 5 years for carbon
offset
Launched Future of Work initiativehelp future proof our workforce
Issued our first Modern Slavery Statementour commitment to our workforce and
our supply chain
Issued our second TCFD Reportour climate risks and opportunities
demand
reduction
from Tiwai
closure
market supply
disruption
from a
disorderly
transition to
100%
renewables
changes in
public policy
lead to
changes to
legislation or
regulation
Our three priority risks
Social focus
Local communities
Long term relationships, community relationship
managers
$9M of local project support over 14 years
Iwi
Recognisethe mana whenua of NgāiTa h u
Close association with local rūnaka
Focus on strengthening our iwi partnerships
KidsCan
$1M annual contribution towards supporting
under-privileged children
KākāpōRecovery Programme
Cornerstone partnership with the Department of
Conservation
NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION
In 2021 Meridian issued its first
Modern Slavery Statement
15
NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION
16
Our strategy
Strategic
initiatives
Champion
Competitive markets
Sustainability
Climate action
Optimise
Trading & asset management
Re-consenting
Financing
Grow
Retail
Generation
Flux
Grow a clear sustainability leadership
position
Use our 5,000 GWh renewable opportunity to
fast-track NZ’s decarbonisation
NZ’s largest and fastest growing retailer
A resilient wellbeing and safety culture
5-year
targets
5
th
in Colmar Brunton Better Futures
Report
1,500 GWh new demand opportunities identified
92% positive staff wellbeing and safety sentiment, deteriorating injury frequency rates
Current
position
NZ’s highest customer satisfaction
Triple AusFY20 customer numbers
3 million ICP’s on Flux
NZ largest fixed price retailer
Powershopmarket leading customer
satisfaction, Meridian a leading gentailer
7% growth in Auscustomer numbers
500,000 ICP’s on Flux
MEA under ownership review
3 buildable options by 2024
1.9GW of sites/opportunities
17
NZAS exit response
NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION
NZAS contract
14Jan
2021
1 Jan
2022
1 Jan
2023
1 Jan
2024
31 Dec
2024
Meridian portfolio response
Current swaption
CUWLP
NI battery
Process heat
Data centre
Green hydrogen
on
schedule
exploring
options
31 GWh in
MoU’s
review of
sites
review of
sites
Feasibility
May 21
investor
day
ROI
closed
preferred
respondents
business model
resolved
FID tbc
completion
go live
design &
consents
subsea cable
announced
tranche 1
construction,
cable laying
tranche 2
construction
600 GWh
contracted
ECCA
funded
projects 2
ECCA
funded
projects 1
design &
consents
construction
NTP
Nov 21
237 GWh
MoU’s or
contract
site
acquisition
1,180 MW
capacity
options
discussions
ECCA
funded
projects 3
site
acquisition
fast tracked
development
or form
consortium
18
Shareholder highlights
Double digit shareholder returns every year since
listing
Sustained earnings through that period
High free cash flow, high payoutratio, stable
ordinary dividend
Balance sheet headroom to fund potentially
significant future decarbonisation growth
NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION
20%
36%
33%
19%
15%
60%
10%
12%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
20142015201620172018201920202021
Financial Year ended 30 June
Total shareholder return
585
618
650
657
666
838
854
729
400
500
600
700
800
900
20142015201620172018201920202021
$M
Financial Year ended 30 June
EBITDAF
Source: Meridian
Source: Meridian
NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION
19
Investment proposition
balance
sheet
headroom
long term
sustainable
business
strong free
cash flow
customer
growth in NZ
low capital
needs
retail
platform
changes
stable
ordinary DPS
Flux
continued
cost
discipline
potential
Australian
business sale
high free
cash flow
payout
medium
term new
generation
income
growth
20
Disclaimer
The information in this presentation was prepared by Meridian Energy with
due care and attention. However, the information is supplied in summary
form and is therefore not necessarily complete, and no representation is
made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. In
addition, neither the company nor any of its directors, employees,
shareholders nor any other person shall have liability whatsoever to any
person for any loss (including, without limitation, arising from any fault or
negligence) arising from this presentation or any information supplied in
connection with it.
This presentation may contain forward-looking statements and projections.
These reflect Meridian’s current expectations, based on what it thinks are
reasonable assumptions. Meridian gives no warranty or representation as to
its future financial performance or any future matter. Except as required by
law or NZX or ASX listing rules, Meridian is not obliged to update this
presentation after its release, even if things change materially.
This presentation does not constitute financial advice. Further, this
presentation is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a
solicitation of an offer to buy Meridian Energy securities and may not be
relied upon in connection with any purchase of Meridian Energy securities.
This presentation contains a number of non-GAAP financial measures,
including Energy Margin, EBITDAF, Underlying NPAT and gearing. Because
they are not defined by GAAP or IFRS, Meridian's calculation of these
measures may differ from similarly titled measures presented by other
companies and they should not be considered in isolation from, or construed
as an alternative to, other financial measures determined in accordance with
GAAP. Although Meridian believes they provide useful information in
measuring the financial performance and condition of Meridian's business,
readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these non-GAAP
financial measures.
The information contained in this presentation should be considered in
conjunction with the company’s financial statements, which are included in
Meridian’s integrated report for the year ended 30 June 2021 and is available
at:
www.meridianenergy.co.nz/investors
All currency amounts are in New Zealand dollars unless stated otherwise.
NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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