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Meridian Energy Limited Investor Presentation

Investor Presentation10 November 2021MELUtilities

Release
M e r i d i a n E n e r g y L i m i t e d ( A R B N 1 5 1 8 0 0 3 9 6 ) A c o m p a n y i n c o r p o r a t e d i n N e w Z e a l a n d

L e v e l 2 , 5 5 L a d y E l i z a b e t h L a n e , P O B o x 1 0 8 4 0 , W e l l i n g t o n 6 1 4 3

m e r i d i a n e n e r g y . c o . n z

Stock Exchange Listings NZX (MEL) ASX (MEZ)

Meridian Energy investor presentation

11 November 2021

Attached is a presentation Meridian Energy will be making at the upcoming UBS

Australasia Conference.

ENDS

Neal Barclay

Chief Executive

Meridian Energy Limited

For investor relations queries, please contact:

Owen Hackston

Investor Relations Manager

021 246 4772

For media queries, please contact:

Polly Atkins

External Communications Manager

021 174 1715

NOVEMBER 2021
2021 Investor Presentation

2
New Zealand electricity market

NOVEMBER 2021

2021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION

3
New Zealand electricity market

A reliable, affordable and environmentally

sustainable electricity system

A well functioning competitive market with high

level of renewable resources and rational

competition

Vertical integration is the prevailing market

structure

Wholesale and retail market regulation provided

by an independent regulator – The Electricity

Authority (EA)

EA’s mandate is to deliver efficient market

operation, security of supply, promote

competition

No price controls, the non-competitive

transmission and distribution sectors have

regulated rates of return

NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION

53%
18%

1%

1%

6%

0%

8%

13%

Annual generation

Hydro

Geothermal

Biogas

Wood

Wind

Solar

Oil

Coal

Gas

Waste Heat

4

New Zealand electricity market

NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION

5major

generators

(all listed, 3

majority

Govt owned)

1transmission grid

owner (state owned)

1big industrial user

(Rio Tinto/Sumitomo

smelter), ~13% of

national demand

29distribution

businesses (various

ownership structures)

44retail brands

2.1million

consumers

(41 TWh pa)

32%

24%

6%

37%

1%

Annual consumption

Residential

Commercial

Agriculture

Industrial

Other

Sources: Electricity Authority and Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment

(June 2021)

32%

24%

7%

35%

2%

Annual consumption

Residential

Commercial

Agriculture

Industrial

Other

Agriculture includes forestry and fishing

(June 2021)

5
New Zealand electricity market

New Zealand’s hydro generation is managed against

limited controlled storage

Bulk of hydro inflow is anti-correlated to winter demand

peak

Thermal capacity and fuel storage has historically

managed potential hydro inflow deficit and other

renewable intermittency

Efficient and well-functioning wholesale market manages

this supply risk

Significant oversupply had existed in the market, older

thermal plant closure has brought better balance

Demand growth in the last decade has been modest,

strong outlook from decarbonisation

$2b of new renewable builds are being progressed

NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION

-2,000
-1,000

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

GeothermalSolar (Grid)WindHydroThermalSolar (Roof)Retired

Thermal

Retired

Renewables

Installed generation [MW]

New generation capacity to 2050

FY2041-50

FY2031-40

FY2021-30

6

Possible future market outcomes

Existing generation plant retirement (~3GW) will

drive significant new investment

Coupled with significant demand growth

(decarbonisation), could see 8-10GW+ built by

2050

Renewable costs will continue to decline

Renewable generation reaches 95%+

Consumer will play a bigger role in markets

Flexibility will be critical to solving NZ’s dry year

risk

Demand response solutions with some gas

capacity can achieve a balanced outcome

Long-term system prices approach pre 2018 gas

stress levels, higher price volatility from greater

prevalence of wind and solar

NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION

Meridian modelling using two scenarios (both assume 2024 NZAS

exit):

1.Evolution –modest decarbonisationand ETS pricing, steady

demand-side technology growth, thermal peaking

2.Revolution –high decarbonisationand ETS pricing, strong

demand-side technology growth, thermal retirement,

dispatchable demand

Source: Meridian

7
New Zealand policy and regulation

Current Electricity Authority (EA) focus

Implemented new trading conduct provisions, in effect on 30 June 2021

Published a review of wholesale market competition in the wholesale market for the period

2018 to early 2021:

Confirms that high wholesale electricity prices over the last three years, reflect tight

supply and demand conditions, and natural gas scarcity for electricity generation

In Meridian’s view, included erroneous modelling and incorrect speculation on the nature

of the NZAS contract and market response and impacts from a potential closure of the

smelter

Consultation to December 2021, then possibly again on potential code changes

NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION

9 August 2021 power outage reviews

Initial EA review (complete) with recommendations to address issues found withTranspower’s communication and load management

processes

A second, broader EA review (now underway) of all roles in the sector, including generators

The EA considering a claim lodged by Electric Kiwi and HaastEnergy Trading that Genesis and Contact breached the new trading

conduct provisions of the Code

The EA investigating whether the events of 9 August 2021 constituted an undesirable trading situation

A wide-ranging review by MBIE on instruction from the Minister of Energy

8
New Zealand policy and regulation

Climate Change Commission Final Advice

Released in June 2021, final advice on 2022-35 emissions budgets

Proposes deeper emissions cuts in first two budget periods than earlier

draft advice

Recommends major expansion in the electricity system needs to start

immediately

Considers replacing 100% renewable electricity target with achieving 95%-

98% by 2030, with gas to provide flexibility until at least 2035

Government has until May 2022 to set the first three emissions budgets out

to 2035 and release the country’s first emissions reduction plan with

detailed policies

Following the draft final advice, Government has introduced a Clean Car

Discount effective 1 July 2021

And have raised the cost containment reserve price in the ETS from $50 to

$70 and the price floor from $20 to $30 (both from 2022 onwards with

10%/5% plus inflation annual increases thereafter)

And started consultation on reforms to the industrial allocation in the

Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)

NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION

Source: He Poua RangiClimate Change Commission

116
82

67

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

FY20 actualFY21 actualnew TPM

(FY24)

$M

Meridian's NZ transmission costs

Transmission Pricing Methodology (TPM)

EA published final TPM guidelines in June 2020

Replaces current HVDC and RCPD charges with

benefit-based and residual charges

Transpowerreleased its proposed new TPM in August

2021

EA currently consulting on the full proposed TPM

With the aim for a new TPM to take effect for

prices from 1 April 2023

Trustpower’sjudicial review was heard in the High

Court in October 2021, decision has been reserved

9

New Zealand policy and regulation

Meridian actual

Meridian actual

Transpower

estimate

assuming 1 April 2023

implementation

Source: Meridian, Transpower

NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION

1,400
1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

Jan

20

Feb

20

Mar

20

Apr

20

May

20

Jun

20

Jul

20

Aug

20

Sep

20

Oct

20

Nov

20

Dec

20

Jan

21

Feb

21

Mar

21

Apr

21

May

21

Jun

21

Jul

21

Aug

21

Sep

21

Oct

21

Nov

21

Dec

21

Jan

22

Feb

22

Mar

22

Apr

22

May

22

Jun

22

Jul

22

Aug

22

Sep

22

USD

LME prices and 12 month forward forecasts

actual priceforecast Jan 20forecast jun 20forecast Jan 21forecast Jul 21forecast Nov 21

10

New Zealand AluminiumSmelter (Tiwai Point)

NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION

Revised NZAS contract

400MW

172MW

14Jan

2021

1 Jan

2022

1 Jan

2023

1 Jan

2024

31 Dec

2024

no termination right (except terminal force majeure)

NZAS termination right with 6 months notice (terminal FM also applies)

Existing 4

th

potline contract (currently suspended)

50MW

31 Jan 22 current suspension period ends

1 Feb 22 – 31 Mar 21 recommencement notice permitted

1 Apr 22 – 31 Dec 22 recommencement/extended suspension

31 Dec 22 contract ends

2 month termination right

NZAS

Strategic

Review

(Oct 19)

Rio

terminate

NZAS

contract

revised

NZAS

contract

agreed

Source: Meridian, HARBOR Aluminium

572MW CfD

exit contract

with Meridian

terminating 31

December 2024

11
Meridian Energy

NOVEMBER 2021

2021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION

NZ$12b company, one of NZ’s largest listed
company, 51% Government owned

Largest of five listed New Zealand retailer

generators

Strong environmental, social and governance focus

40% of New Zealand generation covered by a price

guarantee contract with Rio Tinto/Sumitomo’s

New Zealand aluminium smelter, ending 31

December 2024

12

About Meridian

NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION

HARAPAKI

(construction)

355k

electricity

customer

connections

144k

electricity

customer

connections

46k

gas customer

connections

New Zealand’s largest generator, all production
from renewable sources

Seven big hydro stations – flexible plant with the

country’s largest storage

With low operating costs and capital needs

Five New Zealand wind farms and proven success

operating in a high wind environment

Backed with more than a decade of construction

and operational experience

Typical long generation position to manage

variable hydro inflows

Vertically integrated Australian business currently

under ownership review

13

About Meridian

NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION

47,279
44,359

32,475

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030

tCO2e

Financial Year ended 30 June

2030 emissions target (scope 1-3)

actualtarget

14

Sustainability at Meridian

NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION

Source: Meridian

Net Zero

Carbon

across

group

emissions

Halving

2019

emissions

by 2030

Our Material Topics

EnvironmentalSocialGovernance

Action on climate changeElectricity pricingSustainability leadership

Pipeline of generation optionsSupport for vulnerable

customers

Good governance, ethical

behaviourand reporting

Impact on waterDistributed energy resourcesContribution to public policy

Impact on biodiversityFinancial impacts of climate

change

Cyber security

In FY21

Climate Change Commission report releasedsets policy direction for electrification

Launched Process Heat Electrification Programme157 GWh in MOU’s, 14 GWh contracted

Harapakiwind farm construction commencedclean energy for 70,000 homes

Launched AC charging network20 of 250 chargers installed

60,000 stems planted under Forever Forest

programme

1.5 million trees in 5 years for carbon

offset

Launched Future of Work initiativehelp future proof our workforce

Issued our first Modern Slavery Statementour commitment to our workforce and

our supply chain

Issued our second TCFD Reportour climate risks and opportunities

demand

reduction

from Tiwai

closure

market supply

disruption

from a

disorderly

transition to

100%

renewables

changes in

public policy

lead to

changes to

legislation or

regulation

Our three priority risks

Social focus
Local communities

Long term relationships, community relationship

managers

$9M of local project support over 14 years

Iwi

Recognisethe mana whenua of NgāiTa h u

Close association with local rūnaka

Focus on strengthening our iwi partnerships

KidsCan

$1M annual contribution towards supporting

under-privileged children

KākāpōRecovery Programme

Cornerstone partnership with the Department of

Conservation

NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION

In 2021 Meridian issued its first

Modern Slavery Statement

15

NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION
16

Our strategy

Strategic

initiatives

Champion

Competitive markets

Sustainability

Climate action

Optimise

Trading & asset management

Re-consenting

Financing

Grow

Retail

Generation

Flux

Grow a clear sustainability leadership

position

Use our 5,000 GWh renewable opportunity to

fast-track NZ’s decarbonisation

NZ’s largest and fastest growing retailer

A resilient wellbeing and safety culture

5-year

targets

5

th

in Colmar Brunton Better Futures

Report

1,500 GWh new demand opportunities identified

92% positive staff wellbeing and safety sentiment, deteriorating injury frequency rates

Current

position

NZ’s highest customer satisfaction

Triple AusFY20 customer numbers

3 million ICP’s on Flux

NZ largest fixed price retailer

Powershopmarket leading customer

satisfaction, Meridian a leading gentailer

7% growth in Auscustomer numbers

500,000 ICP’s on Flux

MEA under ownership review

3 buildable options by 2024

1.9GW of sites/opportunities

17
NZAS exit response

NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION

NZAS contract

14Jan

2021

1 Jan

2022

1 Jan

2023

1 Jan

2024

31 Dec

2024

Meridian portfolio response

Current swaption

CUWLP

NI battery

Process heat

Data centre

Green hydrogen

on

schedule

exploring

options

31 GWh in

MoU’s

review of

sites

review of

sites

Feasibility

May 21

investor

day

ROI

closed

preferred

respondents

business model

resolved

FID tbc

completion

go live

design &

consents

subsea cable

announced

tranche 1

construction,

cable laying

tranche 2

construction

600 GWh

contracted

ECCA

funded

projects 2

ECCA

funded

projects 1

design &

consents

construction

NTP

Nov 21

237 GWh

MoU’s or

contract

site

acquisition

1,180 MW

capacity

options

discussions

ECCA

funded

projects 3

site

acquisition

fast tracked

development

or form

consortium

18
Shareholder highlights

Double digit shareholder returns every year since

listing

Sustained earnings through that period

High free cash flow, high payoutratio, stable

ordinary dividend

Balance sheet headroom to fund potentially

significant future decarbonisation growth

NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION

20%

36%

33%

19%

15%

60%

10%

12%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

20142015201620172018201920202021

Financial Year ended 30 June

Total shareholder return

585

618

650

657

666

838

854

729

400

500

600

700

800

900

20142015201620172018201920202021

$M

Financial Year ended 30 June

EBITDAF

Source: Meridian

Source: Meridian

NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION
19

Investment proposition

balance

sheet

headroom

long term

sustainable

business

strong free

cash flow

customer

growth in NZ

low capital

needs

retail

platform

changes

stable

ordinary DPS

Flux

continued

cost

discipline

potential

Australian

business sale

high free

cash flow

payout

medium

term new

generation

income

growth

20
Disclaimer

The information in this presentation was prepared by Meridian Energy with

due care and attention. However, the information is supplied in summary

form and is therefore not necessarily complete, and no representation is

made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. In

addition, neither the company nor any of its directors, employees,

shareholders nor any other person shall have liability whatsoever to any

person for any loss (including, without limitation, arising from any fault or

negligence) arising from this presentation or any information supplied in

connection with it.

This presentation may contain forward-looking statements and projections.

These reflect Meridian’s current expectations, based on what it thinks are

reasonable assumptions. Meridian gives no warranty or representation as to

its future financial performance or any future matter. Except as required by

law or NZX or ASX listing rules, Meridian is not obliged to update this

presentation after its release, even if things change materially.

This presentation does not constitute financial advice. Further, this

presentation is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a

solicitation of an offer to buy Meridian Energy securities and may not be

relied upon in connection with any purchase of Meridian Energy securities.

This presentation contains a number of non-GAAP financial measures,

including Energy Margin, EBITDAF, Underlying NPAT and gearing. Because

they are not defined by GAAP or IFRS, Meridian's calculation of these

measures may differ from similarly titled measures presented by other

companies and they should not be considered in isolation from, or construed

as an alternative to, other financial measures determined in accordance with

GAAP. Although Meridian believes they provide useful information in

measuring the financial performance and condition of Meridian's business,

readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these non-GAAP

financial measures.

The information contained in this presentation should be considered in

conjunction with the company’s financial statements, which are included in

Meridian’s integrated report for the year ended 30 June 2021 and is available

at:

www.meridianenergy.co.nz/investors

All currency amounts are in New Zealand dollars unless stated otherwise.

NOVEMBER 20212021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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