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UBS Australasia Conference Presentation

Investor Presentation14 November 2021CENUtilities

11
UBS Australasia

Conference

November 2021

2
Disclaimer and important information

Actual results may differ materially from those

stated in any forward-looking statement based

on a number of important factors and risks.

Although management may indicate and

believe that the assumptions underlying the

forward-looking statements are reasonable,

any of the assumptions could prove inaccurate

or incorrect and, therefore, there can be no

assurance that the results contemplated in the

forward-looking statements will be realised.

This presentation does not constitute investment

advice.

Numbers in the presentation have not all been

rounded and might not appear to add.

All logos and brands are property of their respective

owners. All company, product and service names

used in this presentation are for identification

purposes only.

All references to $ are New Zealand dollars

EBITDAF, underlying profit, free cash flow and

operating free cash flow are non-GAAP

(generally accepted accounting practice)

measures. Information regarding the

usefulness, calculation and reconciliation of

these measures is provided in the supporting

material.

Furthermore, while all reasonable care has

been taken in compiling this presentation,

Contact accepts no responsibility for any errors

or omissions.

This presentation may contain projections or forward-looking statements regarding a variety of items.

Such forward-looking statements are based upon current expectations and involve risks and uncertainties.

33
67

61

60

53

Peer 3Contact

Energy

Peer 1Peer 2

391

357

301

272

248

272

FY20FY16FY18FY17FY19FY21

Our previous strategy focused on efficient operations and use of capital which has delivered sector leading

performance efficiency

Profitable operations

Operating free cash flows per MWh, $/MWh

FY21

41

34

24

23

Peer 1Contact

Energy

Peer 3

Peer 2

Strong cash conversion

Operating free cash flows as a proportion of

EBITDAF, %, 3-year average FY19-21

Reducing our cost base

Other operating costs and SIB capex, $M

Strong cash flow generation per unit

despite higher cost thermal generation

assets in our portfolio

Controllable CAPEX and OPEX removed

through our continuous improvement program

Strong conversion of operating earnings into

cash flow, highlighting capital discipline

-30%

Strategic evolution

44
Net debt has reduced by $800m between 30 June 2018 and 31 June 2021 positioning us well. This includes the equity raise of $400m in

February 2021 to support our capital investment programme.

Our focus has delivered solid EBITDAF over the past four years despite volatile wholesale

markets and rising thermal fuel costs. Contact is now positioned well for growth

EBITDAF, $M, continuing operations rolling 12 months average

449

459

465

468

497

509509

510

510

506

499

497

505

502

492

479

451

445

448

446

446

451

449

454

446

457

466

487

491

480

476

485

492

496

513

529

553

582

595

587

598

Nov-18Sep-19Jan-21

Sep-21

May-20Jul-19Jul-18

Mar-21

Sep-18Mar-19Jan-19May-19

May-21

Jan-20Mar-20

Jul-21

Jul-20Nov-19Sep-20Nov-20

Financial year end circled

Average

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

Strategic delivery

$492m

55
Additionally, we have developed, acquired, or partnered with distinctive capabilities to position us for growth

Geothermal fixed costs believed to ~30% less than

major peers

Operational excellence program achieved 2% p.a. cost

reduction off-setting carbon price increase and inflation

-8

-3

14

15

14

35

FY17FY15FY16FY20FY19FY18

Strong geothermal capabilities Geothermal

generation cash-costs excluding transmission, $/MWh

Digitisation of key touchpoints and growth into

new adjacencies supporting rapid net promoter

score (NPS) growth

Enhanced customer experiences driving

highly engaged customersRetail NPS, %

+43

Strategic acquisitions and partnerships with

distinctive capabilities to meet our electrification

and development targets

Strategic acquisitions and partnerships

to build capability

19

17

FY15Peer

estimate

1

FY16FY20FY17FY18FY19

~30%

-2%p.a.

1. Based on annual reports total generation cash-costs weighted by the relative capacity of each generation type

Strategic capability

66
Two structural shifts impact

the NZ electricity market

Decarbonising

the economy

1

End of NZAS

supply agreement

2

77
Decarbonisation imperatives and technology improvements will accelerate electricity demand growth

35

14122010162618202224282030

0

40

45

0%p.a.

The Climate Change Commission expects electricity demand

to grow to meet climate targetsElectricity demand, TWh

1

Key drivers of decarbonisation

Increasedfocus on climate change

globally including from the NZ

government and consumers,

e.g. Climate Change Commission

Increasingcarbon and

gas prices

Competitiveelectricity

costs against alternatives

Falling technology costs

including renewables, electric

boilers, electrolysers and

electric vehicles (EVs)

1. Assumes NZAS is retained or replaced through hydrogen, process heat conversion and data centres etc. Source: Climate Change Commission 2021, Contact Energy analysis

~40%

EVs

~40%

Industry

~20%

Buildings

Key drivers

1

Decarbonising the economy

88
Decarbonisation provides the opportunity for growth

0.9

1.3

1.4

-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.8

2

0

-1

5

3

-2

-3

4

1

6

2.0

202122232030242526272829

-0.8-0.8

+6 TWh

Change in electricity demand and supply, TWh

New supply (cummulative)

Demand, NZAS exit

Demand, including NZAS

Note: New supply includes Turitea(2021, 2022),, Tauhara (2023), and Harapaki(2024). Assumes decommissioning of TCC (2023) and Huntly (2025).

Source: Climate Change Commission Draft Report 2021, Contact Energy analysis

Implication for Contact

Our imperative is to

deliver on our commitment

to decarbonisation and grow

demand by electrifying

NZ and decarbonising

new global industrial

supply chains

2

NZAS supply agreement

99
Decarbonisation and the end of the NZAS supply agreement could

leave the electricity market looking very different by 2030

How the electricity market will change?

Long-term

PPAs secured

to supply large

sources

of demand

Intermittent

renewables

will dominate the

generation mix, with

geothermal as the

only baseload

generation source

Batteries and

large-scale

demand flexibility

will supplement

existing hydro

reservoirs and

thermal peaking

plant to maintain

the energy balance

Baseload

thermal exits

with low

utilisation for

remaining

thermal assets

The energy transition will be bumpy with periods of increased volatility.

Winners will attract new demand with long-term PPAs recovering investment costs.

Positioning Contact for the future

1010
We are best positioned to enable decarbonisation

Proven

decarbonisation

growth platform

Combining Simply Energy with our

deep market knowledge, and strong

retail brand brings the experience and

capability to lead the energy transition

with innovative customer-led solutions

New Zealand’s

best renewable

development pipeline

We have a pipeline of options

for high-quality renewable

developments unmatched by peers,

with the added benefit of NZ’s only

baseload renewable pipeline of

~3 TWhgeothermal*

Leading NZ thermal

generation transition

We have led the economic substitution

of almost 3 TWhof thermal generation

over the last 15 years (twice as much

as all our peers combined), while

developing advanced trading

capabilities and systems to manage

changes to our commodity risk position

* Includes Tauhara which is currently under construction

Low-cost, innovative operations

We have a track record of sustainably reducing

costs across the business, with lowest cost

geothermal and retail cost-to-serve

Largest NZ electricity brand

We are NZ’s largest electricity brand,

catering to changing customer needs

with a great customer experience

Future-focused capabilities

Our capabilities will support our growth with major

projects, business development and digital &

analytics skills recently added

Leading decarbonisation

1111
Our strategy to lead NZ’s decarbonisation

Enablers

Transformative ways of working

Createa flexible and high-performing

environment for NZ's top talent

Outcomes

Growth

Pivot our business to a new growth era that

captures the value unlocked by decarbonisation

Resilience

Deliver sustainable shareholder returns,

aligned with our ESG commitment

Performance

Realise a step-change in performance, materially

growing EBITDAF through strategic investments

Strategic

theme

Objective

Grow

demand

Attract new industrial

demand with globally

competitive renewables

Grow renewable

development

Build renewable generation

and flexibility on the back

of new demand

Decarbonise

our portfolio

Lead an orderly

transition to

renewables

Create outstanding

customer experiences

Create NZ's leading sustainable

energy brand that will support

renewable development ambitions

Operational excellence

Continuously improving our operations

through innovation and digitisation

ESG

Createlong-term value through our strong

performance across a broad set of

environmental, social and governance factors

1212
1.As per Colmar Brunton Rep Track report, 2021 ranked 44

th

2.Science Based Targets Initiative (Sbti) target at 1.5 degrees.

3.Equivalent to 100MW of new demand at a 70% capacity factor (mix of data centres and process heat conversions

Tauhara online by 2023

FID on next renewable

build (Wairākei, wind, and/or

solar) by 2024

Decision on North Island

battery by end of 2023, for

delivery in 2024

100 MW demand response

capacity by 2025

Top 10 ‘most trusted retailer’

by 2025

1

650,000 customer

connections by 2025

Cost to serve (CTS) < $120

per connection

75% of customer interactions

through digital channels

Complete thermal review in

2021, and executed by the

end of 2022

TCC decommissioned by

end of 2023

Reduce Scope 1 and 2 GHG

emissions 45% compared to

2018 baseline by 2026²

Senior in-house capability to

support industry electrification

partnerships by 2021

613 GWh p.a. of new

commercial and industrial

demand by 2025³

Identified 300+ MW of market-

backed demand opportunities,

replacing NZAS in the lower SI

by end of 2024 (e.g., hydrogen)

Metrics &

measures

Grow

demand

Grow renewable

development

Decarbonise

our portfolio

Create outstanding

customer experiences

Our ambitious measures of success

Strategic

theme

1313
Our strategy grows shareholder value by generating cash flows from strategic investments, backed by new demand

Fiscal discipline to maximisereturns

Collaborate with customers across

industry to generate new demand

opportunities

Use our high-quality renewable

resources and distinctive capabilities

to capture value from new projects

Operate our assets to meet NZ’s evolving energy needs

Actively manage channels to balance fuel risk and returns

Continue to operate efficientlythrough our operational excellence program

Invest in a portfolio of projects with returns above the cost of capital

Pay out stable and predictable dividends

to shareholders with dividends between

80—100% of operating free cash flows over

the preceding 4 years

Grow our businessGenerate returns on our capital investments

$273m

Expected FY22

ordinary dividend

(35 cps)

$326m

4-year average

operating free cash

flows (FY18 –21)

FY22 payout of 84% at DPS of 35 cps

Financial strategy

Build a pipeline

of demand

Capabilities and

endowments

Return capital

to shareholders

Strategic capital

deployment

Generate

and sell

Operational

excellence

Strong

cashflows

1414
z

50

700

580

60

30

$1,420m

Medium-term capital investment programme

(uncommitted)

Investments

will be sized to

meet the market

Growth investment funding strategy

Complementing conventional debt funding and hybrid debt instruments, Contact has already accessed equity

funding to support our base case investment programme

Wairakei

Tauhara (committed)

Decarbonisation spend

Battery

Hydro refurbishment

Potential sources of funding

244

400

291

250

235

Equity raise

Debt capacity pre-equity

Hybrid credits

Capacity through

EBITDAF growth (FY24)

Balance

$1,420m

Balance includes dividend reinvestment plan take-up, which can be increased to support upside

demand growth, and retained operating free cash flow in excess of the ordinary dividend.

Commitment to maintaining S&P investment grade credit rating continued.

Long-life renewable

generation assets are

capital intensive and

require equity support

Wairakei investment

decision provides

balance sheet

flexibility

1515
M&A

Complementary products

81

Geothermal

8

7

8

Productivity

104

161

15

Geothermal*

M&A

10

Productivity

14

200

FY24

FY26 run rate

NZAS load has not been fully replaced.

FY26 is a recovery phase

*Includes full value from WRK investment but only 0.6 GWh of the 1.4 TWhis incremental to current Wairakei generation.

The base business earnings in the short-term are leveraged to fuel availability. In the medium-term to NZAS

retention or replacement success. Longer term, strategic capital deployment will drive earnings growth.

EBITDAF from strategic capital deployment $m

Delivering on strategic capital deployment

Assumptions

Ambition to maintain South Island demand at current

levels provides the upside of firmer prices and a further

3.5TWh of renewable development opportunities

Value from thermal strategic review will be additive

Will see higher operating costs to support development

1

2

3

4

Complementary products

1616
What you can expect in the next 18 months

H1-FY22

Hydrogen registration of interest

followed by request for proposals

Advance data centre partnerships

Engage on industrial electrification

Assess hydrogen position

Build data centres

Lock in major industrial user electrification

Develop hydrogen option

Data centres online

Commence boiler electrification

Build Tauhara

Prepare further geothermal consents

Secure solar partnership or add capability

Build Tauhara

Further geothermal consenting

Secure and consent wind sites

Complete battery feasibility

Complete Tauhara

Tauhara phase II consent

Secure solar consents

Complete thermal review and design

principles for structure

Engage 3

rd

party to structure ‘ThermalCo’

Align future-state thermal structure

Agree structure with owners and regulators

Execute ‘ThermalCo’ and buy back PPAs

Prepare for end of TCC

scheduled hours

Launch time of use offer, with extension into EVs

AI-driven optimised service channels

Implications of sale of Trustpower retail to Mercury

Customer technology upgrade

Pilot launch of wireless broadband

Launch data driven energy monitoring

Customer technology upgrade (cont.)

Pilot complementary products

Customer technology upgrade (cont.)

H2-FY22

Grow renewable

development

Decarbonise

our portfolio

Create outstanding

customer

experiences

Strategic themeH1-FY23

Grow

Demand

Our operational plan

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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