UBS Australasia Conference Presentation
11
UBS Australasia
Conference
November 2021
2
Disclaimer and important information
Actual results may differ materially from those
stated in any forward-looking statement based
on a number of important factors and risks.
Although management may indicate and
believe that the assumptions underlying the
forward-looking statements are reasonable,
any of the assumptions could prove inaccurate
or incorrect and, therefore, there can be no
assurance that the results contemplated in the
forward-looking statements will be realised.
This presentation does not constitute investment
advice.
Numbers in the presentation have not all been
rounded and might not appear to add.
All logos and brands are property of their respective
owners. All company, product and service names
used in this presentation are for identification
purposes only.
All references to $ are New Zealand dollars
EBITDAF, underlying profit, free cash flow and
operating free cash flow are non-GAAP
(generally accepted accounting practice)
measures. Information regarding the
usefulness, calculation and reconciliation of
these measures is provided in the supporting
material.
Furthermore, while all reasonable care has
been taken in compiling this presentation,
Contact accepts no responsibility for any errors
or omissions.
This presentation may contain projections or forward-looking statements regarding a variety of items.
Such forward-looking statements are based upon current expectations and involve risks and uncertainties.
33
67
61
60
53
Peer 3Contact
Energy
Peer 1Peer 2
391
357
301
272
248
272
FY20FY16FY18FY17FY19FY21
Our previous strategy focused on efficient operations and use of capital which has delivered sector leading
performance efficiency
Profitable operations
Operating free cash flows per MWh, $/MWh
FY21
41
34
24
23
Peer 1Contact
Energy
Peer 3
Peer 2
Strong cash conversion
Operating free cash flows as a proportion of
EBITDAF, %, 3-year average FY19-21
Reducing our cost base
Other operating costs and SIB capex, $M
Strong cash flow generation per unit
despite higher cost thermal generation
assets in our portfolio
Controllable CAPEX and OPEX removed
through our continuous improvement program
Strong conversion of operating earnings into
cash flow, highlighting capital discipline
-30%
Strategic evolution
44
Net debt has reduced by $800m between 30 June 2018 and 31 June 2021 positioning us well. This includes the equity raise of $400m in
February 2021 to support our capital investment programme.
Our focus has delivered solid EBITDAF over the past four years despite volatile wholesale
markets and rising thermal fuel costs. Contact is now positioned well for growth
EBITDAF, $M, continuing operations rolling 12 months average
449
459
465
468
497
509509
510
510
506
499
497
505
502
492
479
451
445
448
446
446
451
449
454
446
457
466
487
491
480
476
485
492
496
513
529
553
582
595
587
598
Nov-18Sep-19Jan-21
Sep-21
May-20Jul-19Jul-18
Mar-21
Sep-18Mar-19Jan-19May-19
May-21
Jan-20Mar-20
Jul-21
Jul-20Nov-19Sep-20Nov-20
Financial year end circled
Average
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
Strategic delivery
$492m
55
Additionally, we have developed, acquired, or partnered with distinctive capabilities to position us for growth
Geothermal fixed costs believed to ~30% less than
major peers
Operational excellence program achieved 2% p.a. cost
reduction off-setting carbon price increase and inflation
-8
-3
14
15
14
35
FY17FY15FY16FY20FY19FY18
Strong geothermal capabilities Geothermal
generation cash-costs excluding transmission, $/MWh
Digitisation of key touchpoints and growth into
new adjacencies supporting rapid net promoter
score (NPS) growth
Enhanced customer experiences driving
highly engaged customersRetail NPS, %
+43
Strategic acquisitions and partnerships with
distinctive capabilities to meet our electrification
and development targets
Strategic acquisitions and partnerships
to build capability
19
17
FY15Peer
estimate
1
FY16FY20FY17FY18FY19
~30%
-2%p.a.
1. Based on annual reports total generation cash-costs weighted by the relative capacity of each generation type
Strategic capability
66
Two structural shifts impact
the NZ electricity market
Decarbonising
the economy
1
End of NZAS
supply agreement
2
77
Decarbonisation imperatives and technology improvements will accelerate electricity demand growth
35
14122010162618202224282030
0
40
45
0%p.a.
The Climate Change Commission expects electricity demand
to grow to meet climate targetsElectricity demand, TWh
1
Key drivers of decarbonisation
Increasedfocus on climate change
globally including from the NZ
government and consumers,
e.g. Climate Change Commission
Increasingcarbon and
gas prices
Competitiveelectricity
costs against alternatives
Falling technology costs
including renewables, electric
boilers, electrolysers and
electric vehicles (EVs)
1. Assumes NZAS is retained or replaced through hydrogen, process heat conversion and data centres etc. Source: Climate Change Commission 2021, Contact Energy analysis
~40%
EVs
~40%
Industry
~20%
Buildings
Key drivers
1
Decarbonising the economy
88
Decarbonisation provides the opportunity for growth
0.9
1.3
1.4
-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.8
2
0
-1
5
3
-2
-3
4
1
6
2.0
202122232030242526272829
-0.8-0.8
+6 TWh
Change in electricity demand and supply, TWh
New supply (cummulative)
Demand, NZAS exit
Demand, including NZAS
Note: New supply includes Turitea(2021, 2022),, Tauhara (2023), and Harapaki(2024). Assumes decommissioning of TCC (2023) and Huntly (2025).
Source: Climate Change Commission Draft Report 2021, Contact Energy analysis
Implication for Contact
Our imperative is to
deliver on our commitment
to decarbonisation and grow
demand by electrifying
NZ and decarbonising
new global industrial
supply chains
2
NZAS supply agreement
99
Decarbonisation and the end of the NZAS supply agreement could
leave the electricity market looking very different by 2030
How the electricity market will change?
Long-term
PPAs secured
to supply large
sources
of demand
Intermittent
renewables
will dominate the
generation mix, with
geothermal as the
only baseload
generation source
Batteries and
large-scale
demand flexibility
will supplement
existing hydro
reservoirs and
thermal peaking
plant to maintain
the energy balance
Baseload
thermal exits
with low
utilisation for
remaining
thermal assets
The energy transition will be bumpy with periods of increased volatility.
Winners will attract new demand with long-term PPAs recovering investment costs.
Positioning Contact for the future
1010
We are best positioned to enable decarbonisation
Proven
decarbonisation
growth platform
Combining Simply Energy with our
deep market knowledge, and strong
retail brand brings the experience and
capability to lead the energy transition
with innovative customer-led solutions
New Zealand’s
best renewable
development pipeline
We have a pipeline of options
for high-quality renewable
developments unmatched by peers,
with the added benefit of NZ’s only
baseload renewable pipeline of
~3 TWhgeothermal*
Leading NZ thermal
generation transition
We have led the economic substitution
of almost 3 TWhof thermal generation
over the last 15 years (twice as much
as all our peers combined), while
developing advanced trading
capabilities and systems to manage
changes to our commodity risk position
* Includes Tauhara which is currently under construction
Low-cost, innovative operations
We have a track record of sustainably reducing
costs across the business, with lowest cost
geothermal and retail cost-to-serve
Largest NZ electricity brand
We are NZ’s largest electricity brand,
catering to changing customer needs
with a great customer experience
Future-focused capabilities
Our capabilities will support our growth with major
projects, business development and digital &
analytics skills recently added
Leading decarbonisation
1111
Our strategy to lead NZ’s decarbonisation
Enablers
Transformative ways of working
Createa flexible and high-performing
environment for NZ's top talent
Outcomes
Growth
Pivot our business to a new growth era that
captures the value unlocked by decarbonisation
Resilience
Deliver sustainable shareholder returns,
aligned with our ESG commitment
Performance
Realise a step-change in performance, materially
growing EBITDAF through strategic investments
Strategic
theme
Objective
Grow
demand
Attract new industrial
demand with globally
competitive renewables
Grow renewable
development
Build renewable generation
and flexibility on the back
of new demand
Decarbonise
our portfolio
Lead an orderly
transition to
renewables
Create outstanding
customer experiences
Create NZ's leading sustainable
energy brand that will support
renewable development ambitions
Operational excellence
Continuously improving our operations
through innovation and digitisation
ESG
Createlong-term value through our strong
performance across a broad set of
environmental, social and governance factors
1212
1.As per Colmar Brunton Rep Track report, 2021 ranked 44
th
2.Science Based Targets Initiative (Sbti) target at 1.5 degrees.
3.Equivalent to 100MW of new demand at a 70% capacity factor (mix of data centres and process heat conversions
Tauhara online by 2023
FID on next renewable
build (Wairākei, wind, and/or
solar) by 2024
Decision on North Island
battery by end of 2023, for
delivery in 2024
100 MW demand response
capacity by 2025
Top 10 ‘most trusted retailer’
by 2025
1
650,000 customer
connections by 2025
Cost to serve (CTS) < $120
per connection
75% of customer interactions
through digital channels
Complete thermal review in
2021, and executed by the
end of 2022
TCC decommissioned by
end of 2023
Reduce Scope 1 and 2 GHG
emissions 45% compared to
2018 baseline by 2026²
Senior in-house capability to
support industry electrification
partnerships by 2021
613 GWh p.a. of new
commercial and industrial
demand by 2025³
Identified 300+ MW of market-
backed demand opportunities,
replacing NZAS in the lower SI
by end of 2024 (e.g., hydrogen)
Metrics &
measures
Grow
demand
Grow renewable
development
Decarbonise
our portfolio
Create outstanding
customer experiences
Our ambitious measures of success
Strategic
theme
1313
Our strategy grows shareholder value by generating cash flows from strategic investments, backed by new demand
Fiscal discipline to maximisereturns
Collaborate with customers across
industry to generate new demand
opportunities
Use our high-quality renewable
resources and distinctive capabilities
to capture value from new projects
Operate our assets to meet NZ’s evolving energy needs
Actively manage channels to balance fuel risk and returns
Continue to operate efficientlythrough our operational excellence program
Invest in a portfolio of projects with returns above the cost of capital
Pay out stable and predictable dividends
to shareholders with dividends between
80—100% of operating free cash flows over
the preceding 4 years
Grow our businessGenerate returns on our capital investments
$273m
Expected FY22
ordinary dividend
(35 cps)
$326m
4-year average
operating free cash
flows (FY18 –21)
FY22 payout of 84% at DPS of 35 cps
Financial strategy
Build a pipeline
of demand
Capabilities and
endowments
Return capital
to shareholders
Strategic capital
deployment
Generate
and sell
Operational
excellence
Strong
cashflows
1414
z
50
700
580
60
30
$1,420m
Medium-term capital investment programme
(uncommitted)
Investments
will be sized to
meet the market
Growth investment funding strategy
Complementing conventional debt funding and hybrid debt instruments, Contact has already accessed equity
funding to support our base case investment programme
Wairakei
Tauhara (committed)
Decarbonisation spend
Battery
Hydro refurbishment
Potential sources of funding
244
400
291
250
235
Equity raise
Debt capacity pre-equity
Hybrid credits
Capacity through
EBITDAF growth (FY24)
Balance
$1,420m
Balance includes dividend reinvestment plan take-up, which can be increased to support upside
demand growth, and retained operating free cash flow in excess of the ordinary dividend.
Commitment to maintaining S&P investment grade credit rating continued.
Long-life renewable
generation assets are
capital intensive and
require equity support
Wairakei investment
decision provides
balance sheet
flexibility
1515
M&A
Complementary products
81
Geothermal
8
7
8
Productivity
104
161
15
Geothermal*
M&A
10
Productivity
14
200
FY24
FY26 run rate
NZAS load has not been fully replaced.
FY26 is a recovery phase
*Includes full value from WRK investment but only 0.6 GWh of the 1.4 TWhis incremental to current Wairakei generation.
The base business earnings in the short-term are leveraged to fuel availability. In the medium-term to NZAS
retention or replacement success. Longer term, strategic capital deployment will drive earnings growth.
EBITDAF from strategic capital deployment $m
Delivering on strategic capital deployment
Assumptions
Ambition to maintain South Island demand at current
levels provides the upside of firmer prices and a further
3.5TWh of renewable development opportunities
Value from thermal strategic review will be additive
Will see higher operating costs to support development
1
2
3
4
Complementary products
1616
What you can expect in the next 18 months
H1-FY22
Hydrogen registration of interest
followed by request for proposals
Advance data centre partnerships
Engage on industrial electrification
Assess hydrogen position
Build data centres
Lock in major industrial user electrification
Develop hydrogen option
Data centres online
Commence boiler electrification
Build Tauhara
Prepare further geothermal consents
Secure solar partnership or add capability
Build Tauhara
Further geothermal consenting
Secure and consent wind sites
Complete battery feasibility
Complete Tauhara
Tauhara phase II consent
Secure solar consents
Complete thermal review and design
principles for structure
Engage 3
rd
party to structure ‘ThermalCo’
Align future-state thermal structure
Agree structure with owners and regulators
Execute ‘ThermalCo’ and buy back PPAs
Prepare for end of TCC
scheduled hours
Launch time of use offer, with extension into EVs
AI-driven optimised service channels
Implications of sale of Trustpower retail to Mercury
Customer technology upgrade
Pilot launch of wireless broadband
Launch data driven energy monitoring
Customer technology upgrade (cont.)
Pilot complementary products
Customer technology upgrade (cont.)
H2-FY22
Grow renewable
development
Decarbonise
our portfolio
Create outstanding
customer
experiences
Strategic themeH1-FY23
Grow
Demand
Our operational plan
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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