Global Dairy Update November 2021
• First quarter business update.
• Partnering with VitaKey.
• The next issue of the Global Dairy Update will be published
on 28 January 2022.
1
Global Dairy
UPDATE
• New Zealand, Australia and US monthly
production down. EU production flattens.
• New Zealand monthly exports up.
Australia, US and EU monthly exports
continue to grow.
• China and Middle East and Africa monthly
imports decline. Asia and Latin America
monthly imports up.
• Fonterra New Zealand milk collection for
October was 207 million kgMS, down 2.9% on
the prior season.
• Fonterra New Zealand full season
forecast milk collection confirmed at
1,525 million kgMS, down on last season's
1,539 million kgMS.
• Fonterra Australia milk collection for October
was 11.8 million kgMS, down 4.8% on
last season.
• A day in the life of a Tanker Operator.
Key Dates
December to February 2022
Application Period to
Supply Fonterra
9 December 2021
Fonterra Co-operative Group
Annual Meeting
13 December 2021
Fonterra Shareholders' Fund
Annual Meeting
March 2022
FY22 Interim Results
Announcement
NOVEMBER 2021
For further details,
view our website –
%
%
%%
%
%
%%
Change for October 2021
compared to October 2020
Change for October 2021
compared to October 2020
Change for September 2021
compared to September 2020
Change for September 2021
compared to September 2020
Change for the 12 months to
October 2021
Change for the 12 months
to October 2021
Change for the 12 months
to September 2021
Change for the 12 months
to September 2021
0.52.93.3
0.70.21.9
0.2
0.6
2
OUR MARKETS
Global Production
New Zealand, Australia
and US monthly
production down.
EU production flattens
New Zealand milk
production¹ decreased
3.3% on a litres basis, (down
3.1% on milk solids basis)
in October compared to
October last year.
Changeable weather
patterns across the country
impacted production for the
third consectutive month.
New Zealand milk
production for the 12 months
to October was 0.6% higher
than last year.
Fonterra New Zealand
collections are reported
for October, see page 5
for details.
Australia milk
production decreased 2.9%
in September compared to
September last year.
Dairy Australia and
Rabobank have forecast
0% to 2% growth for
FY22. Production figures
through to September
2021 increasingly point to a
decline in FY22.
Australia milk production for
the 12 months to September
was 0.7% lower than
last year.
Fonterra collections in
Australia are reported
for October, see page 5
for details.
EU milk production²
decreased 0.2% in
September compared to the
same period last year.
Lower production volumes
from Germany and the
Netherlands continued
and were partially offset
by strong output from Italy
and Ireland.
EU milk production for the
12 months to September was
up 0.2% compared to the
same period last year, driven
by higher volumes across
several countries including
Ireland, Italy, Hungary
and Poland.
US milk production
decreased by 0.5% in
October, compared to the
same period last year.
Rising input costs
contributing to herd size
contractions as well as
lower milk per cow yield, are
impacting milk production.
Milk production for the
12 months to October was
1.9% higher compared to the
same period last year.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in production –
1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.
2 Excludes UK.
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in exports –
3
OUR MARKETS
Global Exports
New Zealand monthly
exports up. Australia, US
and EU monthly exports
continue to grow
Total New Zealand dairy
exports increased by 0.6%,
or 1,654 MT, in October
compared to the same
period last year.
Cheese exports increased
year-on-year and SMP export
to China continue to be
strong. These were partially
offset by lower shipments of
butter and infant formula.
Exports for the 12 months
to October were up by
4.5%, or 155,715 MT, on the
previous comparable period.
This was primarily driven
by WMP, cheese and fluid
milk products.
EU dairy exports
increased 3.4%, or 19,197 MT,
in August compared to the
same period last year.
August exports reflected
higher sales of fluid milk
products to Mauritania and
United Arab Emirates and of
cheese and butter to the US,
up a combined 29,228 MT.
Exports for the 12 months
to August were down
0.5%, or 32,366 MT, on the
previous comparable period.
Infant formula, cultured
products, butter and SMP
were the main drivers of
this decline but partially
offset by an increase in fluid
milk products.
US dairy exports
increased 14.2%, or
28,029 MT, in September
compared to the same
period last year with gains
observed across most
product categories.
Sustained strong demand
for SMP and cheese from
Mexico as well as cheese
from Japan are driving this
increase. Exports of whey to
China and fluid milk products
are also contributing to
the increase.
Exports for the 12 months
to September 2021 were up
9.5%, or 238,085 MT, on the
previous comparable period,
driven by whey, SMP, butter,
fluid milk products and WPC
up a combined 221,652 MT.
Australia dairy exports
increased 38.0%, or
23,364 MT, in September
compared to the same
period last year.
Fluid milk products to
China continue to be in
high demand, together with
increased cheese exports.
Exports for the 12 months to
September were up 12.8%, or
95,022 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was predominantly
driven by increases in fluid
milk products, SMP and
WMP but partially offset by
declines in infant formula.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
%%%
%%%
Change for October 2021
compared to October 2020
Change for September 2021
compared to September 2020
Change for September 2021
compared to September 2020
Change for August 2021
compared to August 2020
Change for the 12 months
to October 2021
Change for the 12 months
to September 2021
Change for the 12 months
to September 2021
Change for the 12 months
to August 2021
14.238.00.6
12.80.59.5
3.4
4.5
%
%
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in imports –
4
OUR MARKETS
Global Imports
China and Middle East and
Africa monthly imports
decline. Latin America
and Asia monthly
imports up
Latin America dairy
import volumes¹ increased
5.0%, or 8,906 MT, in August
compared to the same
period last year.
The increase was driven by
higher demand for cheese
in the Dominican Republic,
Mexico and Chile.
Imports for the 12 months
to August were up 2.9%, or
58,121 MT, compared to the
same period last year.
Asia (excluding China)
dairy import volumes¹
increased 20.5%, or
81,949 MT, in August
compared to the same
period last year.
The increase was driven by
higher demand for whey in
Vietnam, SMP in Pakistan
and Thailand and cheese
in Japan.
Imports for the 12 months to
August were down 1.3%, or
64,958 MT, compared to the
same period last year, driven
by lower volumes of WMP
and SMP, and offset by fluid
milk product and cheese.
Middle East and
Africa dairy import
volumes¹ decreased 5.9%,
or 28,896 MT, in August
compared to the same
period last year.
The decrease was
predominantly driven by
lower volumes of SMP to
Ethiopia, WMP to Algeria and
infant formula to Nigeria.
Imports for the 12 months
to August were down 2.5%,
or 119,881 MT, compared to
August last year, driven by
decreases in WMP, SMP and
fluid milk products.
China dairy import
volumes decreased by 5.6%,
or 15, 782 MT, in October
compared to the same
period last year. This is the
second consecutive month of
decline following six months
of year-on-year growth.
Declines in infant formula,
fluid milk products, whey and
WMP import volumes were
observed in October
Imports for the 12 months
to October were up 21.8%.
or 745,795 MT, driven by
fluid milk products, WMP,
whey and SMP and partially
offset by decreases in
infant formula.
LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA
1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.
%
%
%%
%
Change for August 2021
compared to August 2020
Change for October 2021
compared to October 2020
Change for August 2021
compared to August 2020
Change for August 2021
compared to August 2020
Change for the 12 months
to August 2021
Change for the 12 months
to August 2021
Change for the 12 months
to August 2021
5.6
20.55.0
1.32.5
%
Change for the 12 months
to October 2021
21.8
5.9
2.9
%
%
To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New
Zealand and Australia compared
to the previous season –
%
%%
Season-to-date
1 July to 31 October
Season-to-date
1 June to 31 October
Season-to-date
1 June to 31 October
Season-to-date
1 June to 31 October
Change for October 2021
compared to October 2020
Change for October 2021
compared to October 2020
Change for October 2021
compared to October 2020
Change for October 2021
compared to October 2020
4.81.23.92.9
3.34.12.73.2
VOLUME M LITRESDAY
JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
5
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Milk Collections
NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA
New Zealand Milk Collection
Fonterra's Australia
collections
for October
were 11. 8 million kgMS, a 4.8%
decrease on October last season.
Farm collections increased
4.2% while third-party volumes
decreased by 57.5%.
Fonterra collections across
Australia for the season-to-date
were 34.5 kgMS, a 3.3% decline
on last season.
Average rainfall and cooler
conditions this spring are
reducing growth rates and
pasture availability as farmers
manage grazing rotations and
silage preparation.
North Island milk
collections in October were
123.5 million kgMS, 3.9% lower
than October last season.
Season-to-date collections
were 334.6 million kgMS, 2.7%
behind last season.
Many eastern regions of the
North Island were generally
drier than average for the
time of year, while Northland,
Auckland, Coromandel and Bay
of Plenty were much wetter
than average.
South Island milk
collections in October were
83.5 million kgMS, 1.2% lower
than October last season.
Season-to-date collections
were 176.3 million kgMS, 4.1%
behind last season.
Regular westerlies led to near
normal rainfall across much
of the South Island, although
Kaikoura, north Canterbury
and Southland were drier
than average.
Fonterra's New Zealand
collections for October were
207.0 million kgMS, 2.9% down
on last October. Season-to-date
collections were 510.9 million
kgMS, 3.2% behind last season.
October was warmer than
normal, particularly during the
second half of the month, in
addition to the usual mixture of
unsettled spring weather.
Improving weather conditions
and expectations that milk
collections for the balance of
the season that are generally
on par with last season
support the current forecast of
1,525 million kgMS.
%%%
Forecast Farmgate Milk Price for
the 2021/22 season
Forecast milk collection for the
2021/22 season
NZD
per
kgMS
%
8.40-
9.00
1, 5 2 5
M
kgMS
Outlook for
New Zealand
The inclusion of off-GDT sales
contributed approximately
six cents per kgMS to the
Milk Price for the season
to 31 October 2021.
%
%
%
%%
%
To view more information,
including a snapshot of the
rolling year-to-date results –
%
6
GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE
NOV
JUN
NOV
JAN
APR
JUN
SEP
NOV
JAN
APR
SEP
,
,
,
.
.
.
.
.
PRICE INDEX
NZD USD
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results
Fonterra GDT sales
by destination:
Dairy commodity
prices and New
Zealand dollar trend
The NZD/USD exchange rate
declined during November
driven by broad based support
for the USD as expectations
for recovery in the US
economy firmed, inflation
lifted, and financial markets
projected a quickening in the
pace of US monetary policy
normalisation.
Fonterra GDT results at
last trading event
16 November 2021:
The next trading event will be held on 7 December 2021. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.
Change in Fonterra’s
weighted average product
price from previous event
1.8
Fonterra’s weighted
average product price
(USD/MT)
4,322
USD
Fonterra product quantity
sold on GDT
000’ MT
29.5
NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)
SOUTH EAST ASIA
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
OTHER
USD 6,472/MT
1.4
AMF
USD 5,534/MT
3.4
BUTTER
USD 3,987/MT
1.7
WMP
USD 5,162/MT
2.1
CHEDDAR
USD 3,680/MT
1.4
SMP
29,515
MT
LATEST AUCTION
206,559
MT
FINANCIAL
YEAR‑TO‑DATE
7
Our Performance
Fonterra and VitaKey
partner to enhance
dairy's contribution to
health and wellness
Looking to a future where
it is likely that many foods
will be more valued for their
specific health benefits,
Fonterra and VitaKey
Inc. have announced a
transformative dairy science
collaboration to further
unlock the benefits of
Fonterra’s probiotic strains.
VitaKey specialises in
precision delivery of
nutrition – an emerging area
of research that seeks to
deliver the right nutrients,
in the right amount, to the
right part of the body at the
right time.
Co-founded by
Dr. Robert Langer, the
VitaKey delivery technology
platform for nutrients
is based on technology
licensed from the
Massachusetts Institute of
Technology and developed
at the Langer Lab, the
largest academic biomedical
engineering lab in the world.
Utilising VitaKey’s
proprietary technology
and customised solutions,
Fonterra is looking to
design dairy products that
incorporate targeted and
time-controlled release of
specific dairy nutrients,
starting with probiotics,
in a way that locks in the
freshness for longer and
allows the nutrients to be
more active and beneficial in
the body.
Judith Swales, CEO for
Fonterra’s Asia Pacific region,
says the collaboration is
part of Fonterra’s long-term
strategy and ambition to be
a leader in dairy innovation
and nutrition science.
“Our Co-op has a long and
proud heritage of dairy
innovation, pioneering many
world firsts and, increasingly,
new solutions which aim to
help people live healthier
and longer lives.
“Home to one of the largest
dairy culture libraries in
the world, our Research
and Development Centre
contains more than 40,000
strains. Two of these strains,
LactoB 001 and BifidoB 019,
address key health concerns
such as digestive issues and
immunity and are recognised
as being in the top five
global probiotics.
“By partnering with VitaKey,
we aim to ‘make nature
better’ by combining
the goodness of our
New Zealand milk with
VitaKey’s technology. In
this way, we can really
drive our Active Living
business by appealing to
the growing health and
wellness consumer segment
that desire the maximum
functional benefits from
food and are motivated by
scientific credibility.
“Because the nutrients are
encapsulated and highly
targeted, it also means we
can use less milk in our
production, making our milk
go further while reducing
food waste,” says Ms. Swales.
The first step in the
collaboration aims to
stabilise probiotics and
deliver them to the digestive
tract. This will leverage
related MIT technology
developed in the Langer
Lab that NASA may use
to deliver probiotics to
astronauts in their planned
mission to Mars.
VitaKey’s founder, Dr. Langer,
has extensive experience
in commercialising science,
resulting in more than
40 biotech companies with
an estimated market value
of $250 billion. The VitaKey
delivery platform has already
been shown to preserve
and enhance 11 different
micro-nutrients, including
Vitamin D, A, B12, and C as
well as iron, zinc, niacin, and
folic acid. Fonterra intends
to leverage the VitaKey
technology across a range
of micro-nutrients, such as
Vitamin D, and introduce
them into its products.
Dr. Langer, who oversees
more than 150 researchers at
MIT, says that the technology
can be customised for every
link of the food supply chain.
Dr. Langer’s vision for
Fonterra and VitaKey
working together is “to do
something that really can
change the world, rather
than something incremental.”
He is excited to collaborate
with Fonterra to help further
unlock dairy’s nutrition.
“The Covid pandemic has
underscored the need for
solutions to enhance health
and wellness and boost the
immunity of men, women
and children at every stage
of life. We believe that
good nutritious food can
help people of all ages
lead healthier lives,” says
Dr. Langer.
Dr. Robert Langer, co-founder of Vitakey
A day in the life of a
Tanker Operator
Ever wondered what a day in
the life of a Fonterra Tanker
Operator is like?
Take a look at the video to
see how a day goes for our
Lower South Island Milk
Collection team based at our
Edendale depot.
And if that isn’t enough for
you, Stirling Tanker Operator
Richard Lumb also tells
his story.
It’s 6.30am in mid-September
and Richard Lumb is listening
to the morning briefing with
the rest of the red team at
our Stirling tanker depot
near Balcultha. Richard
shares the tanker with a
member of each of the blue
and green teams.
“We work three days starting
at 6.30am if it’s mornings
and then three nights
starting at 5pm and then
three days off so it’s a nine-
day roster. On days you work
about nine hours and drive
up to 500kms and nights are
usually about ten hours or a
bit more and you’re driving
up to 650kms.”
His family don’t mind the
roster, especially as he’s
often around to help out
with kids’ sports, cook dinner
and do renovations on the
house. “I can’t be there every
Saturday for sport – but I
do make it there for most of
them. When I started with
the Co-op back in 2018 the
kids suddenly noticed I was
around a lot more.”
His kids and wife have all
been on a run in the tanker
with him. The depot holds
two days every year when
family or friends can ride in
the cab.
But now, with an empty
tanker, he’s heading for his
first dairy farm in Waipahi
about 50km away. All the
information, including the
route, is on the Incab display
mounted on the cab’s floor
to Richard’s left. “It shows
your fuel consumption –
we’re aiming to reduce fuel
burn every season.”
Richard is at his first pickup.
There’s no one around and
he drives up to the vat, gets
out and hooks up the hose
to the vat and starts the
process, getting three pottles
ready for sampling. “The kids
on the farms are great. They
love seeing the tanker.”
“Making sure everything is
okay on the farm is really
important for Fonterra and
if we can help, or get help to
someone, we do it.”
With volumes changing
day to day, especially in the
Spring, the route is always
different. “No two days
are ever the same. You go
places you would never
go otherwise. It’s been an
awesome way to see the
South Island.”
Richard’s always had a
passion for driving. “I had
someone ask me when I was
younger what I wanted to do
and I said ‘I’ve always wanted
to drive milk tankers’ and he
said ‘only dropouts became
truck drivers’, so I didn’t do
it. I shouldn’t have listened
to him.”
He worked doing forestry
roading and other trucking
jobs in Northland then
decided a move south, to
Balclutha, at the other end
of the country and his family
haven’t looked back. “The
kids love it down here. The
weather is so much better.”
And today, there are
thousands of lambs being
born all along his route.
Our Co-op
8
PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
DEC JUL
JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR
LIQUID MILK M LITRES
EXPORTS
AUSTRALIA
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY
MT s
AVERAGE
IMPORTS
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA
ASIACHINA
SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV
JAN DEC
JUL OCT
MT
s
AVERAGE
9
Supplementary Information
Global Dairy Market
The charts on the right
illustrate the year-on-year
changes in imports, exports
and production for a range of
countries that are important
players in global dairy trade.
The absolute size of
the bars represents the
change in imports, exports
or production, relative
to the same period the
previous year.
Averages are shown where
data is complete for the
regions presented.
NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to September; New Zealand and US to October.
NOTE: Data for EU to August; US and Australia to September; New Zealand to October.
NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa and Latin America to August; China to October.
SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR
MAR
JAN
OCT
FEB
JUL
AUG
MAY
SEP
NOV
DEC JUN
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD MT
10
Supplementary Information
Fonterra milk
production
The table on the right
shows Fonterra milk solids
collected in New Zealand
and Australia compared
to the previous season.
MILK COLLECTION
(MILLION KGMS)
OCTOBER
2021
OCTOBER
2020
MONTHLY
CHANGE
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2021/22
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2020/21
SEASON-
TO-DATE
CHANGE
Total Fonterra
New Zealand
207.0213.1(2.9%)510.9527.5(3.2%)
North Island123.5128.6(3.9%)334.6343.7(2.7%)
South Island83.584.5(1.2%)176.3183.9(4.1%)
Australia11. 812.4(4.8%)34.535.7(3.3%)
Fonterra GDT results
This table provides more
information on the latest
results, including a snapshot
of the year-to-date results.
LAST TRADING EVENT
(16 NOVEMBER 2021)
YEAR-TO-DATE
(FROM 1 AUGUST 2021)
Quantity Sold on GDT
(Winning MT)
29,515206,559
Change in Quantity Sold on GDT
over same period last year
(14.7%)(22.8%)
Weighted Average Product Price
(USD/MT)
4,3224,065
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price over same period
last year
36.1%31. 1%
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price from previous event
1.8%–
Fonterra GDT results
This chart shows Fonterra
GDT prices and volumes over
the past 12 months.
11
AMF
Anhydrous Milk Fat.
BMP
Butter Milk Powder.
DIRA
Dairy Industry Restructuring
Act 2001 (New Zealand).
Farmgate Milk Price
The price for milk supplied in
New Zealand to Fonterra by
farmer shareholders.
Fluid Products
The Fonterra grouping
of fluid milk products
(skim milk, whole milk
and cream – pasteurised
or UHT processed),
concentrated milk products
(evaporated milk and
sweetened condensed milk)
and yoghurt.
GDT
Global Dairy Trade, the
online provider of the twice
monthly global auctions of
dairy ingredients.
kgMS
Kilogram of milk solids, the
measure of the amount of
fat and protein in the milk
supplied to Fonterra.
MPC
Milk Protein Concentrate.
Non-Reference Products
All dairy products, except
for Reference Products,
produced by the NZ
Ingredients business.
Reference Products
The dairy products used
in the calculation of the
Farmgate Milk Price, which
are currently WMP, SMP,
BMP, butter and AMF.
Glossary
Season
New Zealand: A period
of 12 months to 31 May
in each year.
Australia: A period of
12 months to 30 June
in each year.
SMP
Skim Milk Powder.
WMP
Whole Milk Powder.
WPC
Whey Protein Concentrate.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time
Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update November 20212021-12-02
“• First quarter business update. • Partnering with VitaKey. • The next issue of the Global Dairy Update will be published on 28 January 2022. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • New Zealand, Australia and US monthly production down. EU production flattens. • New Zealand monthly ex…”
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update October 20212021-10-28
“• Fonterra's foodservice business hits $3 billion in annualised revenue. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Lower volumes in New Zealand and Australia. US monthly production flat. • New Zealand exports up, Australia and US monthly exports continue to grow. EU monthly exports decl…”
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update September 20212021-09-29
“• Record shipment year for Fonterra despite supply chain challenges. • On 23 September, Fonterra announced its Annual Results, provided Long-term Strategy and a new Capital Structure proposal. For further details, view our website – 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Milk volume…”