Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited logo

Global Dairy Update January 2022

Operational Update27 January 2022FCGConsumer Staples

• Farmers vote in favour of Fonterra’s Flexible
Shareholding structure.

1

Global Dairy

UPDATE

• Monthly production decline observed across

all regions.

• Australia and US monthly exports continue

to grow. New Zealand and EU monthly

exports decline.

• China and Asia monthly imports decline.

Middle East and Africa, and Latin America

monthly imports up.

• Fonterra New Zealand milk collection for

December was 173.4 million kgMS, down 5.3%

on December the prior season.

• Fonterra Australia milk collection for

December was 11.3 million kgMS, down 0.6%

on December last season.

• Anchor™ turns the tap on for a more sustainable flat white.

Key Dates

December to February 2022

Application Period to

Supply Fonterra

17 March 2022

FY22 Interim Results

Announcement

May 2022

FY22 Q3

Business Update

JANUARY 2022

%
%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for December 2021

compared to December 2020

Change for December 2021

compared to December 2020

Change for November 2021

compared to November 2020

Change for October 2021

compared to October 2020

Change for the 12 months to

December 2021

Change for the 12 months

to December 2021

Change for the 12 months

to November 2021

Change for the 12 months

to October 2021

0.10.85.0

0.90.11.4

0.5

0.1

2

OUR MARKETS

Global Production

Monthly production

decline observed across

all regions

New Zealand milk

production¹ decreased

5.0% on a litres basis, (down

5.5% on milk solids basis)

in December compared to

December the year prior.

Weather conditions in the

early part of December

provided good moisture,

before becoming dry and

very warm in the final

week of the month in

most regions.

New Zealand milk

production for the 12 months

to December was flat on the

year prior.

Fonterra New Zealand

collections are reported

for December, see page 5

for details.

Australia milk

production decreased 0.8%

in November compared to

November the year prior.

After forecasting growth

of up to 2% for FY22,

both Dairy Australia and

Rabobank have revised their

forecasts down; Rabobank

to -1.8% and Dairy Australia

to "unlikely to see growth

in FY22".

Australia milk production for

the 12 months to November

was 0.9% lower than the

year prior.

Fonterra collections in

Australia are reported

for December, see page 5

for details.

EU milk production²

decreased 0.5% in October

compared to the same

period the year prior.

Lower production volumes

year on year were driven

by Germany, Netherlands

and France but partially

offset by an increase in

Italy's production.

EU milk production for the

12 months to October was up

0.1% compared to the same

period the year prior, driven

by higher volumes in Italy

and Ireland, but largely offset

by declines in Germany,

France and Netherlands.

US milk production

decreased by 0.1% in

December, compared to the

same period the year prior.

Weaker production was

driven by continuing herd

size contractions and lower

milk per cow yield as input

costs remain high.

Milk production for the

12 months to December was

1.4% higher compared to the

same period the year prior.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.

2 Excludes UK.

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

Global Exports

Australia and US monthly

exports continue to grow.

New Zealand and EU

monthly exports decline

Total New Zealand dairy

exports decreased by 0.6%,

or 2,505 MT, in November

compared to the same

period the year prior.

Lower shipments of SMP,

AMF, WMP and butter

to South East Asia were

partially offset by record

shipments of fluid milk

products to China.

Exports for the 12 months

to November were up by

3.5%, or 121,319 MT, on the

previous comparable period.

This was primarily driven

by WMP, fluid milk product

and cheese.

EU dairy exports

decreased 4.5%, or

26,476 MT, in October

compared to the same

period the year prior.

Lower exports of cultured

products, cheese and infant

formula, down a combined

27,261 MT, were partially

offset by stronger demand

for MPC, whey, lactose

and SMP.

Exports for the 12 months to

October were up 0.4%, or

25,175 MT, on the previous

comparable period, driven

by increases in fluid milk

products and whey, and

partially offset by declines

in cultured products, infant

formula, butter and WMP.

US dairy exports

increased 19.8%, or

38,210 MT, in November

compared to the same

period the year prior with

gains observed across most

product categories.

Strong demand for SMP

and cheese to Mexico, as

well as lactose to China

and Singapore, are driving

this increase.

Exports for the 12 months

to November 2021 were up

10.4%, or 260,989 MT, on

the previous comparable

period, driven by whey, SMP,

cheese, fluid milk products

and butter, up a combined

244,854  MT.

Australia dairy exports

increased 66.1%, or

43,558 MT, in November

compared to the same

period the year prior.

November exports were

higher than normal, driven

by high demand from China

for fluid milk products, up

30,739 MT, and an increase in

SMP and cheese exports.

Exports for the 12 months to

November were up 17.8%, or

132,202 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was predominantly

driven by increases in fluid

milk products, and also SMP

and WMP, but partially offset

by declines in infant formula.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

%%%

%

%

%

Change for November 2021

compared to November 2020

Change for November 2021

compared to November 2020

Change for November 2021

compared to November 2020

Change for October 2021

compared to October 2020

Change for the 12 months

to November 2021

Change for the 12 months

to November 2021

Change for the 12 months

to November 2021

Change for the 12 months

to October 2021

19.866.10.6

17.8

4.5

10.40.43.5

%

%

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

Global Imports

China and Asia monthly

imports decline. Middle

East and Africa, and

Latin America monthly

imports up

Latin America dairy

import volumes¹ increased

6.2%, or 10,356 MT, in

October compared to the

same period the year prior.

The increase was driven

by higher demand for

cheese to Mexico and

Dominican Republic.

Imports for the 12 months

to October were up 3.8%, or

75,732 MT, compared to the

same period the year prior.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 0.4%, or 1,441  MT,

in October compared to the

same period the year prior.

The decrease was driven by

lower volumes of fluid milk

products to Taiwan, partially

offset by higher demand

for whey to Indonesia

and Bangladesh.

Imports for the 12 months to

October were down 1.5%, or

74,048 MT, compared to the

same period the year prior,

driven by lower volumes of

WMP and SMP, and offset

by an increase in whey

and cheese.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

increased 30.1%, or

103,043 MT, in October

compared to the same

period the year prior.

The increase was

predominantly driven by

higher volumes of SMP to

Algeria, and of fluid milk

products and cheese to Iraq.

Imports for the 12 months

to October were up 3.7%,

or 179,882 MT, compared

to October the year prior,

driven by increases in

cheese, infant formula and

ice cream.

China dairy import

volumes decreased by

13. 0%, or 42,365 MT, in

December compared to

December 2020, which

was a record month for

China imports.

Declines were observed

in WMP and SMP import

volumes as supply is limited.

Whey imports were also

down as hog herds in China

decline, decreasing the

demand for whey as feed.

Imports for the 12 months to

December were up 18.0%, or

630,474 MT, driven by fluid

milk products, WMP, whey

and SMP, partially offset by

decreases in infant formula.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%

%

%%

%

Change for October 2021

compared to October 2020

Change for December 2021

compared to December 2020

Change for October 2021

compared to October 2020

Change for October 2021

compared to October 2020

Change for the 12 months

to October 2021

Change for the 12 months

to October 2021

Change for the 12 months

to October 2021

13.0

0.46.2

1.53.7

%

Change for the 12 months

to December 2021

18.0

30.1

3.8

%

%

To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%

%%

Season-to-date

1 July to 31 December

Season-to-date

1 June to 31 December

Season-to-date

1 June to 31 December

Season-to-date

1 June to 31 December

Change for December 2021

compared to December 2020

Change for December 2021

compared to December 2020

Change for December 2021

compared to December 2020

Change for December 2021

compared to December 2020

0.62.97.05.3

1.23.13.23.1

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY



















5

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Milk Collections

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

New Zealand Milk Collection

Fonterra's Australia

collections

for December

were 11.3 million kgMS, a

0.6% decrease on December

last season.

Fonterra collections across

Australia for the season-to-date

are 58.3 kgMS, a 1.2% decline

on last season.

After wetter and cooler spring

conditions, rainfall totals in

December were well below

average reducing growth

rates and pasture availability,

resulting in poor quality silage.

North Island milk

collections in December were

98.3 million kgMS, 7.0% lower

than December last season.

Season-to-date collections

are 543.1 million kgMS, 3.2%

behind last season.

Near record temperatures

and periods of heavy rain in

many regions contributed

to poor grass quality across

much of the North Island. Early

December collections reduced

sharply before showing some

recovery in the second half of

the month, but not enough to

make up the lost ground.

South Island milk

collections in December were

75.1 million kgMS, 2.9% lower

than December last season.

Season-to-date collections are

331.4 million kgMS, 3.1% behind

last season.

The South Island was generally

less impacted than the North

Island by the weather and

pasture quality issues. Otago

and Southland were the

only regions in the country

where December collections

remained consistent at or

above December last season.

Fonterra's New Zealand

collections for December

were 173.4 million kgMS,

5.3% down on last December.

Season-to-date collections are

874.6 million kgMS, 3.1% behind

last season.

Settled weather across most of

the country at the beginning

of December gave way to

heavy rain that moved up

the South Island to the lower

North Island. Warm and fine

weather returned in the final

week of the month, leading into

a very warm new year, bringing

with it a watch out for heat

stress in some areas.

%%%

Forecast Farmgate Milk Price for

the 2021/22 season

Forecast milk collection for the

2021/22 season

NZD

per

kgMS

%

8.90-

9.50

1, 5 0 0

M

kgMS

Outlook for Fonterra in New Zealand

%

%
%

%%

%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

JAN AUG JAN APR JUN AUG NOV JAN APR JUN NOV




,

, 

,

,

.

.

.

.

.

.

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity

prices and New

Zealand dollar trend

The NZD/USD stabilised

around 68 US cents through

the summer holiday period

and into January. The NZD

faces headwinds from a

strengthening USD and a

cooling Chinese economy,

however, it remains supported

by strong commodity prices and

rising domestic interest rates.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

18 January 2022:

The next trading event will be held on 1 February 2022. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

5.0

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

4,473

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

30.0

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 6,720/MT

0.8

AMF

USD 4,082/MT

5.6

WMP

USD 6,158/MT

4.9

BUTTER

USD 3,960/MT

5.0

SMP

USD 5,546/MT

1.1

CHEDDAR

29,991

MT

LATEST AUCTION

326,186

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
Farmers vote in favour

of Fonterra’s Flexible

Shareholding structure

Fonterra shareholders have

given the Co-operative’s

new Flexible Shareholding

structure the green light

with 85.16% of the total

farmer vote in support of

the proposal.

The final votes on the

capital structure proposal

were cast at a Special

Meeting in Invercargill on

9 December 2021.

Chairman Peter McBride

says the Board and

Management are united in

the belief that the Flexible

Shareholding structure is

the best course of action for

the Co-operative.

“Our farmers have agreed.

We have received a strong

mandate for change with

85.16% of votes cast in favour

of the proposal and 82.65%

of eligible votes being cast.

“Changing our capital

structure is the most

important decision we as

farmers have made in almost

a decade. The results of

this year’s Annual Meeting

resolutions were all above

80%, which shows farmers

are united in their support

for the direction of the

Co-op. Our full focus is now

on delivering the strategic

commitments we have made.

“I would like to thank

everyone who voted and

the thousands of farmers

who gave us their time and

ideas during the consultation

period, which helped us to

shape the proposal into the

model that was successfully

passed in December.”

With a clear farmer mandate

for change, Fonterra is

continuing to work with

the Government on how to

effect the changes under the

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act (DIRA), the legislation

that enabled the formation

of Fonterra back in 2001.

“I believe we are

philosophically aligned with

the Government and remain

confident that we can find

a regulatory framework

that supports the Flexible

Shareholding structure.

“The strong mandate

we received will support

our conversations with

the Government as

we continue to work

together to find a mutually

acceptable outcome.

“We will continue to

keep farmers and unit

holders updated as these

conversations progress.”

The Flexible Shareholding

structure will come

into effect once the

Board is satisfied that

any steps necessary for

implementation have been

(or will be) completed. The

Co-operative is aiming to

implement the changes as

soon as possible from the

beginning of next season.

Share compliance obligations

will remain on hold until at

least six months after the

new structure is effective.

The current cap on the

Fonterra Shareholders’ Fund

remains in place as a cap

is a feature of the Flexible

Shareholding structure.

Our Performance

Anchor™ turns the
tap on for a more

sustainable flat white

Fancy your latte or flat white

from a source that produces

less waste and is better for

the environment?

Our Fonterra Brands

New Zealand (FBNZ) team

is kicking off an exciting

trial which will see baristas

making the same great

coffee, but with a more

sustainable pour, using

‘Anchor™ café milk taps’.

This is another step

in Anchor™ taking a

leadership position around

sustainability and follows on

from the launch of Anchor’s

plant-based bottle and the

specialised milks range

being carbon zero (Anchor™

Organic, Protein+, Zero

Lacto, Silver Top and Calci+).

FBNZ Director for Marketing,

Mike Boness says: “The

Anchor™ café milk tap is

connected to a recyclable

10 litre bladder, filled

with milk, which replaces

five 2-litre standard milk

bottles and results in 65%

less plastic.”

“Cafés and coffee shops will

also benefit because the milk

tap measures the precise

amount of milk into coffee

cups, which means less

waste and ultimately reduces

their costs,” says Mike.

Anchor will be trialling

10 milk taps across the

country and taking feedback

from customers.

The first trial café is Emporio

Coffee located in Wellington,

the coffee capital of

New Zealand.

Eric Heycoop, Emporio

Coffee Owner, says he’s

excited about the taps as

more people are wanting

to know that their food

and drinks are being served

more sustainably.

“Because there is less

waste and spillage with

every pour from the taps, it

means less cost for us and

increased productivity and

time savings for the baristas

making coffee.”

“From our perspective it

also enhances the whole

café experience because

it gives us more time to

connect with our customers,”

says  Eric.

Mike Boness says, “the

Open Innovation Team

from Fonterra Research

Development Centre in

Palmerston North has

conducted an evaluation

of the available tap

systems. The MilkIt system

(supplied out of Israel) was

recommended as the best fit

for Anchor™ proceeding to

trial in cafés.”

Our Co-op

8

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL 

JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES

















EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC  NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT  s














AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT 

MT s















AVERAGE

9


Supplementary Information

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU to October; Australia to November; New Zealand and US to December.

NOTE: Data for EU to October; New Zealand, US and Australia to November.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa and Latin America to October; China to December.

SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR

JAN OCT

FEB

JUL

AUG

MAY

SEP

NOV

DEC

JUN

,
,

,

,

,

,

,

, 

,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT

QUANTITY SOLD  MT

10


Supplementary Information

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

DECEMBER

2021

DECEMBER


2020

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2021/22

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2020/21

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

173.4183.1(5.3%)874.6902.9(3.1%)

North Island98.3105.8(7.0%)543.1560.9(3.2%)

South Island75.177.3(2.9%)331.4342.0(3.1%)

Australia11. 311. 4(0.6%)58.359.0(1.2%)

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(18 JANUARY 2022)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2021)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

29,991326,186

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

5.0%(15.8%)

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

4,4734,163

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

23.3%30.0%

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

5.0%–

Fonterra GDT results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

11
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products, except

for Reference Products,

produced by the NZ

Ingredients business.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.


Glossary

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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