Quarterly Operational Update
QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
Three months ended 31 March 2022
MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE01
NATIONAL INFLOWS AT 8TH PERCENTILE,
1,654GWh BELOW AVERAGE
TAUPO LAKE LEVEL REMAINS
ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS
C&I YIELDS UP 14% VERSUS PCP,
PHYSICAL SALES INCREASE TO REPLACE
NORSKE SKOG CfD VOLUMES
>> QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS
LOW
INFLOWS
TAUPO
STORAGE
CONSERVED
STRONG
LIFT IN
C&I YIELDS
>> COMMENTARY
HYDRO GENERATION LOWER DUE TO DRY WEATHER;LAKE TAUPO STORAGE CONSERVED LEADING INTO WINTER MONTHS
Mercury's hydro generation decreasedby 57GWh versus the prior comparable period as inflows into Lake Taupo trended below average at
the 19
th
percentile
1
, 175GWh below average
1
. During the quarter, record low inflows in January were offset by a rain event associated with
Cyclone Dovi in mid-February. The Taupo lake level started and ended the last quarter above average, closing at 58% full, 66GWhabove
average
2
.
Geothermal generation remained steady at 653GWh in FY2022-Q3 (versus 658GWh in FY2021-Q3) and spot price linked wind generation,
from Mercury's Turitea North wind farm, was 99GWh. Generation from PPA-linked wind farms was 226GWh.
DECLINING NATIONAL HYDRO STORAGE LIFTS SPOT PRICES
Conditions were dry across both the North and South Islands as 8
th
percentile
1
inflows saw national hydro storage end the quarter 309GWh
below average. South Island inflows were particularly affected with record low inflows in both the January and March months. This was
reflected in elevated spotprices in FY2022-Q3 of$176/MWh at Otahuhu and $149/MWh at Benmore, down from $206/MWh and
$203/MWhrespectively in the prior comparable period but still above historical averages.
FUTURES PRICES LIFT DUE TO FUEL CONSTRAINTS; LONGER-DATED FUTURES REFLECT THERMAL FUEL COST PRESSURES
Futures prices responded strongly to dry hydrological conditions with the FY2022 price increasingat Otahuhu and Benmore from
$125/MWh and $103/MWh respectivelyto$167/MWh and $143/MWh across thequarter. Longer-datedfutures also increased with the
Otahuhu FY2023 and FY2024 futures lifting by $47/MWh and $34/MWh respectively to $191/MWh and $163/MWh, reflecting increased
expectations of thermal costs with carbon prices remaining at historically high levels of ~$75/NZU.
COMMERCIAL& INDUSTRIAL PHYSICAL SALES LIFT TO REPLACE VOLUME FROM NORSKE SKOG SETTLEMENT
The Commercial& Industrial segment average yield (including both physical and financial sales) increased by 14% from $94/MWh in
FY2021-Q3 to $107/MWh in FY2022-Q3 due to re-contracting and the early termination of a CfD with Norske Skog Tasman. CfD sales
volumes decreased by 127GWh, from 381GWh in FY2021-Q3 to 254GWh in the current quarter, but were offset by an increase in physical
sales of 118GWh, from 477GWh to 595GWh.
Mercurycontinues to look to maintain market share, however mass market customer numbers declined in the quarter, from 327,000 to
324,000, reflected in Mass Market sales volumes decreasing from 544GWh to 528GWh. Mass market yield increased by 2%, from
$141/MWh in FY2021-Q3 to $144/MWh in the most recent quarter.
IRRIGATIONAND INDUSTIAL SECTORS LEAD DEMAND DOWN
Temperature-adjusted demand decreased by 0.5% (-0.7% on an unadjusted basis) led by decreases in the irrigation (-1.1%) and industrial
(-0.6%) sectors. These were partially offset by increases in the urban (+0.8%), dairy (+0.2%) and rural (+0.1%) sectors.
1
For quarters ended 31 March since 1927
2
For quarters ended 31 March since 2000
324331
288293
3638
4745
VWAP
1
VolumeVWAP
1
VolumeVWAP
1
VolumeVWAP
1
Volume
(GWh)(GWh)(GWh)(GWh)
1,1231,0213,5423,317
2
5285441,9011,982
3
5954771,6411,335
5248165157
4
1,1751,0683,7073,474
5
6768082,2552,588
2543818161,135
6
4224271,4391,453
303192135
1,8311,5685,5714,889
8539102,7372,885
7
6536581,9212,004
8
99204
9
226709
32335410421,190
Buy CfDs
6
32335410421,190
Spot Settlement of CfDs
NET POSITION
10
7746-5817
1
VWAP is volume weighted average energy-only price sold to customers after lines, metering and fees
2
Mass market includes residential segments and non time-of-use commercial customers
3
Fixed-price, variable-volume (FPVV) sales to time-of-use commercial customers
4
Excludes spot customer purchases
5
6
7
Includes Mercury's 65% share of Nga Awa Purua generation
8
Includes generation from Turitea wind farm.
9
Includes generation from Tararua, Mahinerangi and Waipipi wind farms
10
Net Position is Physical and Financial Generation (excluding Wind PPA volumes) less Physical Purchases and Financial Sales
MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE02
112.6592.55
112.6592.55
128.05144.90
116.48142.62
100.02
60.71
121.30152.58
141.96159.50
97.6091.81
126.13144.35
130.63153.42
135.30159.29
95.8289.66
92.6986.90
142.18138.88
109.3496.38
($/MWh)($/MWh)
126.96121.78
Nine months ended
31 March 2022
Nine months ended
31 March 2021
ELECTRICITY SALES
North Island Customers
Commercial & Industrial
Network Losses
99.57
140.84
111.68
Physical126.70121.56
Mass Market143.65
OPERATING INFORMATION
Three months ended
31 March 2022
Three months ended
31 March 2021
($/MWh)
Dual Fuel Customers
($/MWh)
South Island Customers
ELECTRICITY CUSTOMERS
('000s ICPs)
180.02
99.21
168.71
96.86
208.04160.80
Hydro
Spot Customer Purchases
104.10 Other Sell CfDs
174.92215.11
86.56
100.62
220.72
95.83
197.47
Physical Purchases
Financial
Spot Settlement of CfDs
End User CfDs
Includes Virtual Asset Swap volumes of 148 GWh for the 3 months ended 31 March 2022 and 148 GWh for the 3 months ended 31 March 2021 and of 450 GWh
for the 9 months ended 31 March 2022 and 450 GWh for the 9 months ended 31 March 2021
Financial92.81101.91
Geothermal (consolidated)
ELECTRICITY GENERATION
Physical
59.28 Wind PPA
161.81194.87
145.05 Wind Spot
188.72217.56
92.81
207.26
101.91
157.98
Excludes FTR and trading ASX positions
>> OPERATING STATISTICS
> ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY COMPANY FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 31 MARCH
Source: Electricity Authority
> SHARE OF ELECTRICITY SALES (GWh) FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 31 MARCH (EXCLUDING CFDs)
Source: Mercury Purchases and Transpower SCADA
MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE03
20%
19%
16%
35%
8%
2%
Financial Year Q3 2022
MERCURY
CONTACT ENERGY
GENESIS ENERGY
MERIDIAN ENERGY
OTHER
TRUSTPOWER
>> MARKET DATA
17%
19%
21%
32%
7%
4%
Financial Year Q3 2021
13%
87%
Financial Year Q3 2022
MERCURY
OTHER
12%
88%
Financial Year Q3 2021
> OTAHUHU WHOLESALE PRICE AND NATIONAL HYDRO STORAGE LEVELS
Source: NZX Hydro and NZEM Pricing Manager (NZX)
> TAUPO STORAGE
Source: NZX Hydro
MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE04
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun
$/MWh
GWh
AVERAGE NATIONAL STORAGEFY2021 NATIONAL STORAGE
FY2022 NATIONAL STORAGEROLLING 12 MONTH AVERAGE OTA PRICE
ROLLING 12 MONTH AVERAGE BEN PRICE
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun
GWh
AVERAGE SINCE 1999FY2021FY2022
> OTAHUHU ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE
Source: ASX
> BENMORE ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE
Source: ASX
MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE05
$193.18
$143.18
$130.76
$133.34
$141.63
$125.93
$125.05
$143.93
$128.46
$166.61
$190.71
$162.90
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
FY22FY23FY24
$/MWh
Financial Year
AS AT 31 MARCH 2021AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2021AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2021AS AT 31 MARCH 2022
$177.01
$125.69
$113.48
$109.88
$118.04
$104.54
$103.41
$121.24
$105.13
$142.57
$163.88
$139.04
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
FY22FY23FY24
$/MWh
Financial Year
AS AT 31 MARCH 2021AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2021AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2021AS AT 31 MARCH 2022
> NATIONAL CONSUMPTION (NON-TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED)
Source: Transpower Information Exchange
> AUCKLAND CLIMATE SUMMARY ( ⁰C)
FINANCIAL YEAR
Q1Q2Q3Q4
202212.217.820.8-
202112.316.919.514.8
202012.316.719.514.4
201912.116.320.214.1
201812.317.220.714.3
Historical Average (since 1999)11.916.119.414.2
Source: Met Service
> MONTHLY TOTAL CONSUMER RETAIL SWITCHING (ICPs)
Source: Electricity Authority
MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE06
8,185
8,045
8,244
8,329
8,159
8,075
1,237
1,235
1,320
1,291
1,223
1,237
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Q3 2017Q3 2018Q3 2019Q3 2020Q3 2021Q3 2022
GWh
NATIONAL CONSUMPTIONTIWAI POINT ALUMINIUM SMELTER CONSUMPTION
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
% Churn
Monthly ICPs
NZ MARKET CHURN (LHS)ANNUAL NZ MARKET CHURN % (RHS)
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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