Contact Energy Limited logo

Macquarie Conference Presentation

Investor Presentation4 May 2022CENUtilities

1
1

May 2022

Macquarie

Conference

2
Disclaimer and important information

Actual results may differ materially from those

stated in any forward-looking statement based

on a number of important factors and risks.

Although management may indicate and

believe that the assumptions underlying the

forward-looking statements are reasonable,

any of the assumptions could prove inaccurate

or incorrect and, therefore, there can be no

assurance that the results contemplated in the

forward-looking statements will be realised.

This presentation does not constitute investment

advice.

Numbers in the presentation have not all been

rounded and might not appear to add.

All logos and brands are property of their respective

owners. All company, product and service names

used in this presentation are for identification

purposes only.

All references to $ are New Zealand dollars

EBITDAF, underlying profit, free cash flow and

operating free cash flow are non-GAAP

(generally accepted accounting practice)

measures. Information regarding the

usefulness, calculation and reconciliation of

these measures is provided in the supporting

material.

Furthermore, while all reasonable care has

been taken in compiling this presentation,

Contact accepts no responsibility for any errors

or omissions.

This presentation may contain projections or forward-looking statements regarding a variety of items.

Such forward-looking statements are based upon current expectations and involve risks and uncertainties.

33
How we add value

Wegenerate

Wetrade

Weinnovate

Wesellandserve

CLYDE

ROXBURGH

TE MIHI

WAIRĀKEI

TAUHARA

(UNDER CONSTRUCTION)

OHAAKI

POIHIPI

TE HUKA

Thermal

STRATFORD–CCGT

Geothermal

STRATFORD–PEAKERS

TE RAPA

WHIRINAKI

UPPLIERS

Connections

byenergytype(k)

Connections

byaccounttype(k)

563k

totalcustomerconnections

These connection figures include SimplyEnergy connnections.

417

416

428

6565

68

26

51

67

ElectricityNatural

Gas

Broadband

Mar-22

Jun-21

Jun-20

424

420

438

58

52

50

27

59

75

ResidentialBusinessOther

(incl

Broadband)

Hydro

44
2021generationbystationandtype

Whereweare

3,698

(GWh)

1,592

(GWh)

8.4TWh

Totalgenerated

Dunedin

Roxburgh

Clyde

Hawea

Wellington

Levin

Stratford

TeRapa

Auckland

Whirinaki

Tauhara

UNDER

CONSTRUCTION

Ohaaki

TeMihi

Simply

Energy

Simply

Energy

Western

Energy

ContactEnergysites

O f f i c e sa n dc a l lc e n t r e s

Geothermalpowerstation

Hydroelectricpowerstation

Storagelake

Thermalpowerstation

Subsidiaries

SimplyEnergy

WesternEnergy

Wairākei

TeHuka

Poihipi

Roxburgh(320MW)

Clyde(432MW)

2,031

1,667

Hydro

TeRapaandWhirinaki(199MW)232

Stratford–Peakers(210MW)234

Stratford–CCGT(377MW)1,126

Thermal

Tauhara

(168MW)

Under construction

)

TeHuka(28MW)155

Ohaaki(44MW)299

Poihipi(55MW)339

Wairākei(132MW)

1,081

TeMihi(166MW)

Geothermal

1,240

3,114

(GWh)

1,400

55
67

61

60

53

Contact

Energy

Peer 1Peer 3Peer 2

Strong operational performance from quality asset base supports our strategic growth ambitions

Profitable operations

Operating free cash flows per MWh, $/MWh

FY21

41

34

24

23

Peer 1Contact

Energy

Peer 2Peer 3

Strong cash conversion

Operating free cash flows as a proportion of EBITDAF, %,

3-year average FY19-21

Strong cash flow generation per unit despite higher cost thermal

generation assets in our portfolio

Strong conversion of operating earnings into cash flow,

highlighting capital discipline

Sector leading performance efficiency

6
6

Decarbonisation imperatives and technology improvements

will accelerate electricity demand growth

35

14122010162618202224282030

0

40

45

0%p.a.

The Climate Change Commission expects electricity demand to grow to meet climate targets

Electricity demand, TWh

1

Key drivers of decarbonisation

Increasedfocus on climate change globally

including from the NZ government and consumers,

e.g. Climate Change Commission

Increasingcarbon and gas prices

Competitiveelectricity costs

against alternatives

Falling technology costs

including renewables, electric boilers,

electrolysers and electric vehicles (EVs)

1.Assumes demand equivalent to NZAS is operating

Source: Climate Change Commission 2021, Contact Energy analysis

~40%

EVs

~40%

Industry

~20%

Buildings

Key drivers

77
Our strategy to lead NZ’s decarbonisation

Enablers

Transformative ways of working:

create a flexible and high-performing

environment for New Zealand’s top talent

Outcomes

Growth

Pivot our business to a new growth era that

captures the value unlocked by decarbonisation

Resilience

Deliver sustainable shareholder returns,

aligned with our ESG commitment

Performance

Realise a step-change in performance, materially

growing EBITDAF through strategic investments

Strategic

theme

Objective

Grow

demand

Attract new industrial demand with

globally competitive renewables

Grow renewable

development

Build renewable generation and

flexibility on the back of new demand

Decarbonise

our portfolio

Lead an orderly transition

to renewables

Create outstanding

customer experiences

Create NZ's leading energy and services brand to

meet more of our customers’ needs

Operational excellence:

continuously improving our operations

through innovation and digitisation

ESG: create long-term value through our strong

performance across a broad set of environmental,

social and governance factors

7

8
8

Sources of demand

New data centre buildEnergy intensive industries

Data centres proposed by the following companies

2,470

2,826

5,152

NZAS extension

(Jan 21)

NZAS notice of

termination (Jul 20)

+2,326

(+82%)

Al (US$)Al (NZ$)

Aluminium price

(/tonne)

Demand growth outlook markedly improving

Current

(Mar 22)

Several credible data centre owners have publicly announced they

are planning to invest in New Zealand.

The baseload characteristics of data centres make them attractive.

Hyperscale

data centres

Edge data

centres

20222024

2023

DataGrid

Tiwai smelter (NZAS) extension beyond 2024 appears likely:

•Aluminium economics materially improved.

•Rio Tinto carbon reduction targets aligned with extension

of the renewably powered NZAS smelter, without

renewable energy investment.

•Reduced international aluminium smelting capacity.

Alltrademarks, service marks andcompany namesare thepropertyoftheir respective owners. All company, product and service names used in this presentation are for identification purposes only. Use of these names, trademarks and brands does not imply

endorsement or that they are or will be customers of Contact and reflectspublic announcements of intention only.

A

B

C

•Request for information completed

•Request for proposals with preferred

bidders underway –targeting April

2022

Two major electricity users signed to long-term Tauhara

backed electricity signed (PPA). Contracts beginning

April 2024:

15MW / 10 years

10MW / 10 years

9
9

Process heat conversionBaseload thermal substitution

Since 2020, there has been $56m in confirmed GIDI funding for process heat conversion

projects.

Application of funding will drive conversions to new electric boilers (~50MW). These

projects are expected online by 2023.

Baseload thermal generation fuel costs are expected to continue to remain above

estimated baseload renewable PPA pricing¹.

38

39

30

37

37

41

47

50

63

65

65

68

72

81

75

Mar-22Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Mar-21May-21Sep-21Nov-21

NZ carbon price ($/unit)

NZ ETS (ave)

11

18

28

45

74

102

57

40

2020

Gas

2021

120

Carbon at $75/unit

85

Carbon at $140/unit

Carbon

8585

$7.5/GJ

2022 real

Thermal fuel costs at average market prices

This issue is more acute when fixed operating costs and return on capital requirements are

considered.

PPA to support thermal substitution signed in August 2021:

•Long-term PPA signed with Genesis Energy (62.5MW) commencing January 2025.

•Commercial risk positions and agreement on key terms should accelerate

future PPA negotiations.

Demand growth outlook markedly improving

Rising carbon costs

(+85% on Jan 2021) are

nearing thermal / electricity

switching points for new

boiler investments if electricity

supplied long-term through PPA.

Current

carbon price

CCC 2030

estimate

$5.3/GJ

2022 real

$/MWh

Average market prices

¹ Ultimate pricing for renewable PPAs will include consideration of the offtake credit rating and credit support, the location of take, firming

commitments and outage cover and term.

13MW

boilers

Alltrademarks, service marks andcompany namesare thepropertyoftheir respective owners. All company, product and service

names used in this presentation are for identification purposes only. Use of these names, trademarks and brands does not imply

endorsement or that they are or will be customers of Contact and reflectspublic announcements of intention only.

Economic switching

range

$75/unit

Equivalent

gas prices

Sources of demand

10
10

Low carbon resource

0.05T of C02e/MWh

(Gas CCGT ~9x more, Gas Peaker ~11x

more)

Estimated MW

(net export to grid)

168MW

Estimated plant capacity

factor/

annual generation

95% / ~1,400GWh

Estimated cash costs of

generation

2

~$15/MWh

% of production/injection

capacity secured

~100% / ~100%

Total estimated construction costs related

to this phase of development

(2008 –2024)

3

$818m ($4.9m/MW)

Estimated forward capital

expenditure (cash)¹

~$460m

¹ Excluding capitalised interest. $550m as of 31 December 2021

² Includes operating costs, carbon costs and stay-in-business capex (excluding make-up drilling and major mid-life capex replacement)

3

The total addition to PPE on Tauhara commissioning will include ~$18m capitalisedtransmission asset, ~$80m of capitalisedinterest ($27m sunk) and $24m of residual sunk capex related to the next phase of development of the field expected total of

$940m ($818m + $18m + $80m + $24m)

Investing to deliver renewable energy

Tauhara development key metrics

11
11

To meet expected market demand

Market leading development pipeline

3.3

GeoFutures

(net of Wairakei retirement*)

0.2

0.3

2.8

Current capacity

0.4

1.4

Tauhara (remaining)

Tauhara

(under construction)

Te Huka (option)

1.40.8

0.7

2.70.33.4

Potential generation

under current consents

0.6

6.4

+3.2

Geothermal generation potential (TWh p.a.)

Geothermal field responses

to extraction and injection

will determine the ultimate

geothermal generation

potential beyond current

consents.

Wairakei field

Tauhara field

Ohaaki field

*Expected enthalpy decline at Wairakei is expected to be offset through continuous improvement

projects

Lightsourcebp partnership adds

solar development capability

Roaring40s adds wind

development capability

Assessmentand consenting of

low-cost wind sites

in an exclusive partnership

Experience supporting development

of 70% NZ wind projects

200 MW wind options expected to be

consented by mid-2024

Land access agreements signed for

600MW, targeting at least 1000MW

potential.

First wind monitoring mast in place.

Exclusive partnership to deliver a series

of grid-scale solar generation projects

(up to 200MW) by 2026

Contact with the option to purchase

offtake through long-term PPA

Execution characteristics of solar are

appealing

Additional renewable development

Solar

2.01.4

Wind

0.4

3.4

3.8

Additional

generation potential

(TWh p.a.)

Land access agreements signed

Lightsource BP partnership,

first phase

Other near-term prospects

Currently progressing

Other near-term prospects

12
12

Questions

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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