Macquarie Conference Presentation
1
1
May 2022
Macquarie
Conference
2
Disclaimer and important information
Actual results may differ materially from those
stated in any forward-looking statement based
on a number of important factors and risks.
Although management may indicate and
believe that the assumptions underlying the
forward-looking statements are reasonable,
any of the assumptions could prove inaccurate
or incorrect and, therefore, there can be no
assurance that the results contemplated in the
forward-looking statements will be realised.
This presentation does not constitute investment
advice.
Numbers in the presentation have not all been
rounded and might not appear to add.
All logos and brands are property of their respective
owners. All company, product and service names
used in this presentation are for identification
purposes only.
All references to $ are New Zealand dollars
EBITDAF, underlying profit, free cash flow and
operating free cash flow are non-GAAP
(generally accepted accounting practice)
measures. Information regarding the
usefulness, calculation and reconciliation of
these measures is provided in the supporting
material.
Furthermore, while all reasonable care has
been taken in compiling this presentation,
Contact accepts no responsibility for any errors
or omissions.
This presentation may contain projections or forward-looking statements regarding a variety of items.
Such forward-looking statements are based upon current expectations and involve risks and uncertainties.
33
How we add value
Wegenerate
Wetrade
Weinnovate
Wesellandserve
CLYDE
ROXBURGH
TE MIHI
WAIRĀKEI
TAUHARA
(UNDER CONSTRUCTION)
OHAAKI
POIHIPI
TE HUKA
Thermal
STRATFORD–CCGT
Geothermal
STRATFORD–PEAKERS
TE RAPA
WHIRINAKI
UPPLIERS
Connections
byenergytype(k)
Connections
byaccounttype(k)
563k
totalcustomerconnections
These connection figures include SimplyEnergy connnections.
417
416
428
6565
68
26
51
67
ElectricityNatural
Gas
Broadband
Mar-22
Jun-21
Jun-20
424
420
438
58
52
50
27
59
75
ResidentialBusinessOther
(incl
Broadband)
Hydro
44
2021generationbystationandtype
Whereweare
3,698
(GWh)
1,592
(GWh)
8.4TWh
Totalgenerated
Dunedin
Roxburgh
Clyde
Hawea
Wellington
Levin
Stratford
TeRapa
Auckland
Whirinaki
Tauhara
UNDER
CONSTRUCTION
Ohaaki
TeMihi
Simply
Energy
Simply
Energy
Western
Energy
ContactEnergysites
O f f i c e sa n dc a l lc e n t r e s
Geothermalpowerstation
Hydroelectricpowerstation
Storagelake
Thermalpowerstation
Subsidiaries
SimplyEnergy
WesternEnergy
Wairākei
TeHuka
Poihipi
Roxburgh(320MW)
Clyde(432MW)
2,031
1,667
Hydro
TeRapaandWhirinaki(199MW)232
Stratford–Peakers(210MW)234
Stratford–CCGT(377MW)1,126
Thermal
Tauhara
(168MW)
Under construction
)
TeHuka(28MW)155
Ohaaki(44MW)299
Poihipi(55MW)339
Wairākei(132MW)
1,081
TeMihi(166MW)
Geothermal
1,240
3,114
(GWh)
1,400
55
67
61
60
53
Contact
Energy
Peer 1Peer 3Peer 2
Strong operational performance from quality asset base supports our strategic growth ambitions
Profitable operations
Operating free cash flows per MWh, $/MWh
FY21
41
34
24
23
Peer 1Contact
Energy
Peer 2Peer 3
Strong cash conversion
Operating free cash flows as a proportion of EBITDAF, %,
3-year average FY19-21
Strong cash flow generation per unit despite higher cost thermal
generation assets in our portfolio
Strong conversion of operating earnings into cash flow,
highlighting capital discipline
Sector leading performance efficiency
6
6
Decarbonisation imperatives and technology improvements
will accelerate electricity demand growth
35
14122010162618202224282030
0
40
45
0%p.a.
The Climate Change Commission expects electricity demand to grow to meet climate targets
Electricity demand, TWh
1
Key drivers of decarbonisation
Increasedfocus on climate change globally
including from the NZ government and consumers,
e.g. Climate Change Commission
Increasingcarbon and gas prices
Competitiveelectricity costs
against alternatives
Falling technology costs
including renewables, electric boilers,
electrolysers and electric vehicles (EVs)
1.Assumes demand equivalent to NZAS is operating
Source: Climate Change Commission 2021, Contact Energy analysis
~40%
EVs
~40%
Industry
~20%
Buildings
Key drivers
77
Our strategy to lead NZ’s decarbonisation
Enablers
Transformative ways of working:
create a flexible and high-performing
environment for New Zealand’s top talent
Outcomes
Growth
Pivot our business to a new growth era that
captures the value unlocked by decarbonisation
Resilience
Deliver sustainable shareholder returns,
aligned with our ESG commitment
Performance
Realise a step-change in performance, materially
growing EBITDAF through strategic investments
Strategic
theme
Objective
Grow
demand
Attract new industrial demand with
globally competitive renewables
Grow renewable
development
Build renewable generation and
flexibility on the back of new demand
Decarbonise
our portfolio
Lead an orderly transition
to renewables
Create outstanding
customer experiences
Create NZ's leading energy and services brand to
meet more of our customers’ needs
Operational excellence:
continuously improving our operations
through innovation and digitisation
ESG: create long-term value through our strong
performance across a broad set of environmental,
social and governance factors
7
8
8
Sources of demand
New data centre buildEnergy intensive industries
Data centres proposed by the following companies
2,470
2,826
5,152
NZAS extension
(Jan 21)
NZAS notice of
termination (Jul 20)
+2,326
(+82%)
Al (US$)Al (NZ$)
Aluminium price
(/tonne)
Demand growth outlook markedly improving
Current
(Mar 22)
Several credible data centre owners have publicly announced they
are planning to invest in New Zealand.
The baseload characteristics of data centres make them attractive.
Hyperscale
data centres
Edge data
centres
20222024
2023
DataGrid
Tiwai smelter (NZAS) extension beyond 2024 appears likely:
•Aluminium economics materially improved.
•Rio Tinto carbon reduction targets aligned with extension
of the renewably powered NZAS smelter, without
renewable energy investment.
•Reduced international aluminium smelting capacity.
Alltrademarks, service marks andcompany namesare thepropertyoftheir respective owners. All company, product and service names used in this presentation are for identification purposes only. Use of these names, trademarks and brands does not imply
endorsement or that they are or will be customers of Contact and reflectspublic announcements of intention only.
A
B
C
•Request for information completed
•Request for proposals with preferred
bidders underway –targeting April
2022
Two major electricity users signed to long-term Tauhara
backed electricity signed (PPA). Contracts beginning
April 2024:
15MW / 10 years
10MW / 10 years
9
9
Process heat conversionBaseload thermal substitution
Since 2020, there has been $56m in confirmed GIDI funding for process heat conversion
projects.
Application of funding will drive conversions to new electric boilers (~50MW). These
projects are expected online by 2023.
Baseload thermal generation fuel costs are expected to continue to remain above
estimated baseload renewable PPA pricing¹.
38
39
30
37
37
41
47
50
63
65
65
68
72
81
75
Mar-22Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Mar-21May-21Sep-21Nov-21
NZ carbon price ($/unit)
NZ ETS (ave)
11
18
28
45
74
102
57
40
2020
Gas
2021
120
Carbon at $75/unit
85
Carbon at $140/unit
Carbon
8585
$7.5/GJ
2022 real
Thermal fuel costs at average market prices
This issue is more acute when fixed operating costs and return on capital requirements are
considered.
PPA to support thermal substitution signed in August 2021:
•Long-term PPA signed with Genesis Energy (62.5MW) commencing January 2025.
•Commercial risk positions and agreement on key terms should accelerate
future PPA negotiations.
Demand growth outlook markedly improving
Rising carbon costs
(+85% on Jan 2021) are
nearing thermal / electricity
switching points for new
boiler investments if electricity
supplied long-term through PPA.
Current
carbon price
CCC 2030
estimate
$5.3/GJ
2022 real
$/MWh
Average market prices
¹ Ultimate pricing for renewable PPAs will include consideration of the offtake credit rating and credit support, the location of take, firming
commitments and outage cover and term.
13MW
boilers
Alltrademarks, service marks andcompany namesare thepropertyoftheir respective owners. All company, product and service
names used in this presentation are for identification purposes only. Use of these names, trademarks and brands does not imply
endorsement or that they are or will be customers of Contact and reflectspublic announcements of intention only.
Economic switching
range
$75/unit
Equivalent
gas prices
Sources of demand
10
10
Low carbon resource
0.05T of C02e/MWh
(Gas CCGT ~9x more, Gas Peaker ~11x
more)
Estimated MW
(net export to grid)
168MW
Estimated plant capacity
factor/
annual generation
95% / ~1,400GWh
Estimated cash costs of
generation
2
~$15/MWh
% of production/injection
capacity secured
~100% / ~100%
Total estimated construction costs related
to this phase of development
(2008 –2024)
3
$818m ($4.9m/MW)
Estimated forward capital
expenditure (cash)¹
~$460m
¹ Excluding capitalised interest. $550m as of 31 December 2021
² Includes operating costs, carbon costs and stay-in-business capex (excluding make-up drilling and major mid-life capex replacement)
3
The total addition to PPE on Tauhara commissioning will include ~$18m capitalisedtransmission asset, ~$80m of capitalisedinterest ($27m sunk) and $24m of residual sunk capex related to the next phase of development of the field expected total of
$940m ($818m + $18m + $80m + $24m)
Investing to deliver renewable energy
Tauhara development key metrics
11
11
To meet expected market demand
Market leading development pipeline
3.3
GeoFutures
(net of Wairakei retirement*)
0.2
0.3
2.8
Current capacity
0.4
1.4
Tauhara (remaining)
Tauhara
(under construction)
Te Huka (option)
1.40.8
0.7
2.70.33.4
Potential generation
under current consents
0.6
6.4
+3.2
Geothermal generation potential (TWh p.a.)
Geothermal field responses
to extraction and injection
will determine the ultimate
geothermal generation
potential beyond current
consents.
Wairakei field
Tauhara field
Ohaaki field
*Expected enthalpy decline at Wairakei is expected to be offset through continuous improvement
projects
Lightsourcebp partnership adds
solar development capability
Roaring40s adds wind
development capability
Assessmentand consenting of
low-cost wind sites
in an exclusive partnership
Experience supporting development
of 70% NZ wind projects
200 MW wind options expected to be
consented by mid-2024
Land access agreements signed for
600MW, targeting at least 1000MW
potential.
First wind monitoring mast in place.
Exclusive partnership to deliver a series
of grid-scale solar generation projects
(up to 200MW) by 2026
Contact with the option to purchase
offtake through long-term PPA
Execution characteristics of solar are
appealing
Additional renewable development
Solar
2.01.4
Wind
0.4
3.4
3.8
Additional
generation potential
(TWh p.a.)
Land access agreements signed
Lightsource BP partnership,
first phase
Other near-term prospects
Currently progressing
Other near-term prospects
12
12
Questions
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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