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Global Dairy Update September 2022

Operational Update29 September 2022FSFConsumer Staples

• On 22 September,
Fonterra announced its

FY22 Annual Results.

1

Global Dairy

UPDATE

• Milk volumes down in New Zealand. US

monthly production improves. Production

declines in Australia and EU.

• Strong growth in New Zealand monthly

exports. US exports up. Australia and EU

monthly exports decline.

• China imports continue to decline.

Middle East & Africa, Latin America and Asia

imports up.

• Fonterra New Zealand milk collections in

August were 91.9 million kgMS, down 5.0% on

the prior season.

• Fonterra Australia milk collections for August

were 6.9 million kgMS, up 1.2% on last season.

• Fonterra launches wellbeing nutrition solutions

brand, Nutiani.

Key Dates

10 November 2022

Fonterra Co‑operative Group

Annual Meeting

14 November 2022

Fonterra Shareholders' Fund

Annual Meeting

December 2022

FY23 Q1 Business Update

SEPTEMBER 2022

For further details,

view our website –

%
%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for August 2022

compared to August 2021

Change for August 2022

compared to August 2021

Change for July 2022

compared to July 2021

Change for June 2022

compared to June 2021

Change for the 12 months

to August 2022

Change for the 12 months

to August 2022

Change for the 12 months

to July 2022

Change for the 12 months

to June 2022

1.68.34.9

3.90.50.3

0.3

4.4

2

OUR MARKETS

Global Production

Milk volumes down in

New Zealand. US monthly

production improves.

Production declines in

Australia and EU

New Zealand milk

production¹ was down 4.9%

on a litres basis, (down 4.9%

on milk solids basis) in August

compared to the same period

the year prior.

August was marked by some

of the warmest temperatures

on record. This was combined

with extreme rainfall and

flooding while other regions

remained dry.

New Zealand milk production

for the 12 months to August

was down 4.4% on the

year prior.

Fonterra New Zealand

collections are reported for

August, see page 5 for details.

Australia milk production

decreased 8.3% in July

compared to the same period

the year prior. This is still early

in the season and volumes only

represent a small proportion of

full season production.

The decline was driven by lower

production in Tasmania (14.7%)

and Victoria (7.5%).

Australia milk production for

the 12 months to July was 3.9%

lower than the year prior.

New season Australian milk

production is forecast to

remain flat to marginal growth

year‑on‑year.

Fonterra collections in Australia

are reported for August, see

page 5 for details.

EU milk production² was

down 0.3% in June compared

to the same period the

year prior.

Milk production levels remain

low as drought conditions,

limited feed availability and

rising input costs continue to

impact key regions. Production

declines were observed more

notably in France, Spain and

Ireland but partially offset

by higher production from

Netherlands and Poland.

EU milk production for the

12 months to June declined

0.5% compared to the same

period the year prior, driven by

declines in Germany, France,

and Netherlands.

US milk production

increased by 1.6% in August,

compared to the same period

the year prior. This is the largest

year‑on‑year increase since

July 2021.

The increase in production was

driven by herd size growth and

increased milk per cow yield.

Milk production for the

12 months to August declined

0.3% compared to the same

period the year prior.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

To view a chart that

illustrates year‑on‑year

changes in production –

1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.

2 Excludes UK.

To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

Global Exports

Strong growth in

New Zealand monthly

exports. US exports up.

Australia and EU monthly

exports decline

Total New Zealand dairy

exports were up 42.3%,

or 54,785 MT, in August

compared to the same

period the year prior.

Shipping challenges limited

July exports and led to

stronger shipments in

August. WMP, cheese, AMF

and butter exports were the

main drivers of this increase.

Exports for the 12 months

to August were down by

6.1%, or 218,210 MT, on

the previous comparable

period. This was primarily

driven by decreases in WMP

and cheese.

EU dairy exports

decreased 0.2%, or 1,244  MT,

in June compared to the

same period the year prior.

Lower exports volumes

were driven by decreases

in cheese, SMP, whey and

WMP, and partially offset

by increases in fluid milk

products, infant formula and

cultured products.

Exports for the 12 months

to June were down 5.7%, or

415,422 MT, on the previous

comparable period, driven

by declines in fluid milk

products, SMP, WMP, whey

and partially offset by

increases in MPC, lactose

and caseinate.

US dairy exports

increased 4.4%, or 10,332  MT,

in July compared to the same

period the year prior.

Stronger demand for lactose

by China and New Zealand,

whey by Canada, and butter

by Canada and Bahrain were

driving this increase. This

was partially offset by lower

shipments of SMP to Mexico.

Exports for the 12 months

to July were up 5.2%, or

137,293 MT, on the previous

comparable period, driven

by cheese, lactose, fluid milk

products, butter and AMF.

Australia dairy exports

decreased 2.3%, or 1,745  MT,

in July compared to the same

period the year prior.

Cheese, fluid milk products

and WMP exports declined

year‑on‑year and were

partially offset by an increase

in other powders, SMP and

infant formula.

Exports for the 12 months

to July were up 16.4%, or

133,701 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was predominantly

driven by increases in fluid

milk products and SMP.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

%%%

%

%

%

Change for August 2022

compared August 2021

Change for July 2022

compared to July 2021

Change for July 2022

compared to July 2021

Change for June 2022

compared to June 2021

Change for the 12 months

to August 2022

Change for the 12 months

to July 2022

Change for the 12 months

to July 2022

Change for the 12 months

to June 2022

4.42.3

42.3

16.4

0.2

5.25.76.1

%

%

To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

Global Imports

China imports continue

to decline. Middle East &

Africa, Latin America and

Asia imports up

Latin America dairy

import volumes

¹ increased

14.6%, or 23,999 MT, in

June compared to the same

period the year prior.

The increase was driven by

stronger demand for cheese,

fluid milk, infant formula

by Dominican Republic and

AMF by Mexico.

Imports for the 12 months to

June were up 3.1% compared

to the same period the

year prior, driven by higher

volumes of cheese, whey and

MPC and SMP and partially

offset by declines in WMP.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes

¹

increased 8.7%, or 37,066  MT,

in June compared to the

same period the year prior.

The increase was driven by

higher demand for SMP by

Malaysia and Vietnam, and

cultured products and fluid

milk products by Philippines.

Imports for the 12 months

to June were up 5.2%, or

251,524 MT, compared to the

same period the year prior,

driven by higher volumes

of whey, SMP, WPC and

cultured products.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes

¹

increased 18.2%, or

70,718 MT, in June compared

to the same period the

year prior.

The increase was driven by

higher volumes of WMP and

infant formula imported by

Algeria, and cheese imported

by Saudi Arabia and the

United Arab Emirates.

Imports for the 12 months

to June were up 12.5%, or

597,358 MT, compared to

June the year prior, driven by

increases in cheese, SMP and

fluid milk products.

China dairy import

volumes decreased by

24.9%, or 89,915 MT, in

August compared to the

same period the year prior.

This is the sixth consecutive

monthly decline as

import demand remained

constrained following

lockdown restrictions and

strong domestic production.

Lower volumes of WMP and

fluid milk products from

New Zealand and Germany

were partially offset by an

increase in infant formula

imports from Netherlands

and New Zealand.

Imports for the 12 months to

August were down 15.3%, or

638,784 MT, driven by whey,

fluid milk products, WMP

and SMP.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%

%

%%

%

Change for June 2022

compared to June 2021

Change for August 2022

compared to August 2021

Change for June 2022

compared to June 2021

Change for June 2022

compared to June 2021

Change for the 12 months

to June 2022

Change for the 12 months

to June 2022

Change for the 12 months

to June 2022

24.98.714.6

5.212.5

%

Change for the 12 months

to August 2022

15.3

18.2

3.1

%

%

To view a table that shows
detailed milk collections in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%

%%

Season-to-date

1 July to 31 August

Season-to-date

1 June to 31 August

Season-to-date

1 June to 31 August

Season-to-date

1 June to 31 August

Change for August 2022

compared to August 2021

Change for August 2022

compared to August 2021

Change for August 2022

compared to August2021

Change for August 2022

compared to August 2021

1.21.96.15.0

0.51.65.43.9

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY



















5

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Milk Collections

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

New Zealand Milk Collections

Fonterra's Australia

collections

for the second

month of the new season

were 6.9 million kgMS, a 1.2%

increase on August last season.

Both off‑farm collections and

third‑party intake increased

year‑on‑year.

Season‑to‑date collections

reached 12.2 million kgMS,

0.5% behind last season.

The new season outlook

remains balanced. There

is a 70% chance of a third

consecutive La Niña developing

over spring/summer posing

risks to peak production

and flooding.

North Island milk

collections in August were

67.5 million kgMS, 6.1% behind

August last season.

Season‑to‑date collections

were 96.2 million kgMS, 5.4%

behind last season.

The North Island had a very wet

winter leading to pasture cover

and milk production being

lower than anticipated. Lower

pasture cover will be a focus

going into spring and mating.

South Island milk

collections in August were

24.4 million kgMS, 1.9% lower

than last August.

Season‑to‑date collections

were 29.6 million kgMS, 1.6%

ahead of last season.

Isolated flooding in the Upper

South Island caused significant

challenges on farm. Other

parts of the South Island have

had relatively normal late

winter conditions.

Fonterra's New Zealand

collections for August were

91.9 million kgMS, 5.0% lower

than last August.

Season‑to‑date collections

were 125.8 million kgMS, 3.9%

behind last season.

Wet conditions in most key

regions throughout July and

August led to lower milk

collections.

All dairy regions are making

good progress through calving

with the focus moving to

preparing for mating over the

coming months.

%%%

Forecast Farmgate Milk Price for

the 2022/23 season

Forecast milk collections for the

2022/23 season

NZD

per

kgMS

%

8.50-

10.00

1, 4 9 5

M

kgMS

Outlook for Fonterra

in New Zealand

%

%
%%%

%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year‑to‑date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

SEP  APR  SEP  NOV  FEB APR JUL SEP NOV  FEB  JUL 



,

,

,

,

,

,

,

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity

prices and New

Zealand dollar trend

Recent US inflation data was

stronger than expected resulting

in financial markets re‑pricing

both the speed of change, and

the ultimate level, to which US

interest rates will be increased.

Correspondingly, the USD

strengthened with the higher US

interest rate outlook – the NZD

falling to near 58 US cents.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

20 September 2022:

The next trading event will be held on 4 October 2022. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

1.5

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

4,087

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

25.3

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 3,540/MT

1.3

SMP

USD 5,901/MT

3.9

AMF

USD 5,147/MT

2.0

CHEDDAR

USD 3,733/MT

3.4

WMP

USD 5,356/MT

0.3

BUTTER

25,261

MT

LATEST AUCTION

107,392

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

Our Co-op
7

Fonterra launches

wellbeing nutrition

solutions brand , Nutiani

Fonterra is taking another

step towards its strategic

aspiration to be a leader

in nutrition science and

innovation with the launch

of a new wellbeing solution

brand, Nutiani.

The new business‑to‑

business brand is targeted

at both the multi‑billion‑

dollar medical and everyday

wellbeing nutrition markets.

Fonterra’s Chief Innovation

and Brand Officer

Komal Mistry‑Mehta says the

creation of the new brand

brings to life concepts that

help customers tailor their

products to meet consumers’

evolving wellbeing

nutrition needs.

“Our health and wellbeing

customers are facing

growing pressure to

accelerate their innovation

pipeline to respond to these

dynamic consumer demands,

yet they face common

challenges during new

product development and

are looking for partners to fill

their capability gaps.

“Nutiani answers this

need by providing a suite

of solutions which help

customers tackle the pain

points associated with

each step of the innovation

journey – from identifying

the opportunity to validating

the final product.”

Nutiani will offer end‑to‑

end solutions to customers

through a combination of

wellbeing nutrition products,

concepts and services

that leverage the Co‑op’s

intellectual property and

investments in research.

“We see a clear opportunity

to win in critical segments

of the global wellbeing

nutrition space. Fonterra’s

deep expertise in nutrition

science gives us an incredible

advantage here.

“We will use Fonterra’s

existing expertise in nutrition

science to develop targeted

solutions, while opening up

opportunities for strategic

partnerships to deliver

access to new markets

and consumers,” says

Ms Mistry‑Mehta.

The opportunity for the

Co‑op is significant. The

global markets for physical,

mental and inner wellbeing

nutrition are growing at 6%

per year with annual sales

of US$66 billion today, while

medical nutrition has annual

sales of US$50 billion and

growing 5% annually.

“There’s no doubt that

people are paying more

attention to wellbeing

and managing it through

diet. Research shows 96%

of consumers actively

manage their wellbeing,

with more than half of

these consciously managing

their diet to improve

their wellbeing,” says

Ms Mistry‑Mehta.

“To create a greater impact

in the health and wellbeing

space, we must not only

capture the opportunities

we see today but also look

to the future, helping our

customers stay ahead of

the curve.”

The numbers:

• The global markets for

physical, mental and

inner wellbeing nutrition

are growing at 6.1% per

year with annual sales of

US$66 billion.

• Medical nutrition

has annual sales of

US$50 billion and growing

5% annually.

• 90% of global consumers

believe that being healthy

involves looking after

all aspects of wellbeing,

including physical

and mental.¹

• 96% of consumers actively

take steps to manage

their wellbeing, including

maintaining a healthy and

balanced diet.¹

• 56% of consumers manage

their health via their diet.²

1 Source: Nutiani Wellbeing Research.

2 Source: IPSOS Nutiani, Consumer Wellness Research (August 2021).

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL 

JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES















EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC 

NOV 

OCT 

SEP 

MAY 

MT s



















AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT 

MT s

















AVERAGE

8


Supplementary Information

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year‑on‑year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU to June; Australia to July; New Zealand and US to August.

NOTE: Data for EU to June; US and Australia to July; New Zealand to August.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa and Latin America to June; China to August.

SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR MAR JAN OCT FEB JUL AUG MAY SEP NOV DEC JUN

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT

QUANTITY SOLD  MT

9


Supplementary Information

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

AUGUST

2022

AUGUST


2021

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2022/23

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2021/22

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

91.996.7(5.0%)125.8130.9(3.9%)

North Island67.571.8(6.1%)96.2101.7(5.4%)

South Island24.424.9(1.9%)29.629.21.6%

Australia6.96.81.2%12.212.2(0.5%)

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year‑to‑date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(20 SEPTEMBER 2022)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2021)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

25,261107,392

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

6.6%15.4%

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

4,0873,948

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

0.8%0.3%

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

1.5%–

Fonterra GDT results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

10
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

Cultured Products

Fermented milks that are

prepared by using starter

cultures and controlled

fermentation including

yoghurt, yoghurt drinks, sour

cream, crème fraiche.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non‑Reference Products

All dairy products,

except for Reference

Products, produced

by the New Zealand

Ingredients business.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.


Glossary

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate.

WPI

Whey Protein Isolate.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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