Global Dairy Update September 2022
• On 22 September,
Fonterra announced its
FY22 Annual Results.
1
Global Dairy
UPDATE
• Milk volumes down in New Zealand. US
monthly production improves. Production
declines in Australia and EU.
• Strong growth in New Zealand monthly
exports. US exports up. Australia and EU
monthly exports decline.
• China imports continue to decline.
Middle East & Africa, Latin America and Asia
imports up.
• Fonterra New Zealand milk collections in
August were 91.9 million kgMS, down 5.0% on
the prior season.
• Fonterra Australia milk collections for August
were 6.9 million kgMS, up 1.2% on last season.
• Fonterra launches wellbeing nutrition solutions
brand, Nutiani.
Key Dates
10 November 2022
Fonterra Co‑operative Group
Annual Meeting
14 November 2022
Fonterra Shareholders' Fund
Annual Meeting
December 2022
FY23 Q1 Business Update
SEPTEMBER 2022
For further details,
view our website –
%
%
%%
%
%
%%
Change for August 2022
compared to August 2021
Change for August 2022
compared to August 2021
Change for July 2022
compared to July 2021
Change for June 2022
compared to June 2021
Change for the 12 months
to August 2022
Change for the 12 months
to August 2022
Change for the 12 months
to July 2022
Change for the 12 months
to June 2022
1.68.34.9
3.90.50.3
0.3
4.4
2
OUR MARKETS
Global Production
Milk volumes down in
New Zealand. US monthly
production improves.
Production declines in
Australia and EU
New Zealand milk
production¹ was down 4.9%
on a litres basis, (down 4.9%
on milk solids basis) in August
compared to the same period
the year prior.
August was marked by some
of the warmest temperatures
on record. This was combined
with extreme rainfall and
flooding while other regions
remained dry.
New Zealand milk production
for the 12 months to August
was down 4.4% on the
year prior.
Fonterra New Zealand
collections are reported for
August, see page 5 for details.
Australia milk production
decreased 8.3% in July
compared to the same period
the year prior. This is still early
in the season and volumes only
represent a small proportion of
full season production.
The decline was driven by lower
production in Tasmania (14.7%)
and Victoria (7.5%).
Australia milk production for
the 12 months to July was 3.9%
lower than the year prior.
New season Australian milk
production is forecast to
remain flat to marginal growth
year‑on‑year.
Fonterra collections in Australia
are reported for August, see
page 5 for details.
EU milk production² was
down 0.3% in June compared
to the same period the
year prior.
Milk production levels remain
low as drought conditions,
limited feed availability and
rising input costs continue to
impact key regions. Production
declines were observed more
notably in France, Spain and
Ireland but partially offset
by higher production from
Netherlands and Poland.
EU milk production for the
12 months to June declined
0.5% compared to the same
period the year prior, driven by
declines in Germany, France,
and Netherlands.
US milk production
increased by 1.6% in August,
compared to the same period
the year prior. This is the largest
year‑on‑year increase since
July 2021.
The increase in production was
driven by herd size growth and
increased milk per cow yield.
Milk production for the
12 months to August declined
0.3% compared to the same
period the year prior.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year
changes in production –
1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.
2 Excludes UK.
To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year
changes in exports –
3
OUR MARKETS
Global Exports
Strong growth in
New Zealand monthly
exports. US exports up.
Australia and EU monthly
exports decline
Total New Zealand dairy
exports were up 42.3%,
or 54,785 MT, in August
compared to the same
period the year prior.
Shipping challenges limited
July exports and led to
stronger shipments in
August. WMP, cheese, AMF
and butter exports were the
main drivers of this increase.
Exports for the 12 months
to August were down by
6.1%, or 218,210 MT, on
the previous comparable
period. This was primarily
driven by decreases in WMP
and cheese.
EU dairy exports
decreased 0.2%, or 1,244 MT,
in June compared to the
same period the year prior.
Lower exports volumes
were driven by decreases
in cheese, SMP, whey and
WMP, and partially offset
by increases in fluid milk
products, infant formula and
cultured products.
Exports for the 12 months
to June were down 5.7%, or
415,422 MT, on the previous
comparable period, driven
by declines in fluid milk
products, SMP, WMP, whey
and partially offset by
increases in MPC, lactose
and caseinate.
US dairy exports
increased 4.4%, or 10,332 MT,
in July compared to the same
period the year prior.
Stronger demand for lactose
by China and New Zealand,
whey by Canada, and butter
by Canada and Bahrain were
driving this increase. This
was partially offset by lower
shipments of SMP to Mexico.
Exports for the 12 months
to July were up 5.2%, or
137,293 MT, on the previous
comparable period, driven
by cheese, lactose, fluid milk
products, butter and AMF.
Australia dairy exports
decreased 2.3%, or 1,745 MT,
in July compared to the same
period the year prior.
Cheese, fluid milk products
and WMP exports declined
year‑on‑year and were
partially offset by an increase
in other powders, SMP and
infant formula.
Exports for the 12 months
to July were up 16.4%, or
133,701 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was predominantly
driven by increases in fluid
milk products and SMP.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
%%%
%
%
%
Change for August 2022
compared August 2021
Change for July 2022
compared to July 2021
Change for July 2022
compared to July 2021
Change for June 2022
compared to June 2021
Change for the 12 months
to August 2022
Change for the 12 months
to July 2022
Change for the 12 months
to July 2022
Change for the 12 months
to June 2022
4.42.3
42.3
16.4
0.2
5.25.76.1
%
%
To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year
changes in imports –
4
OUR MARKETS
Global Imports
China imports continue
to decline. Middle East &
Africa, Latin America and
Asia imports up
Latin America dairy
import volumes
¹ increased
14.6%, or 23,999 MT, in
June compared to the same
period the year prior.
The increase was driven by
stronger demand for cheese,
fluid milk, infant formula
by Dominican Republic and
AMF by Mexico.
Imports for the 12 months to
June were up 3.1% compared
to the same period the
year prior, driven by higher
volumes of cheese, whey and
MPC and SMP and partially
offset by declines in WMP.
Asia (excluding China)
dairy import volumes
¹
increased 8.7%, or 37,066 MT,
in June compared to the
same period the year prior.
The increase was driven by
higher demand for SMP by
Malaysia and Vietnam, and
cultured products and fluid
milk products by Philippines.
Imports for the 12 months
to June were up 5.2%, or
251,524 MT, compared to the
same period the year prior,
driven by higher volumes
of whey, SMP, WPC and
cultured products.
Middle East and Africa
dairy import volumes
¹
increased 18.2%, or
70,718 MT, in June compared
to the same period the
year prior.
The increase was driven by
higher volumes of WMP and
infant formula imported by
Algeria, and cheese imported
by Saudi Arabia and the
United Arab Emirates.
Imports for the 12 months
to June were up 12.5%, or
597,358 MT, compared to
June the year prior, driven by
increases in cheese, SMP and
fluid milk products.
China dairy import
volumes decreased by
24.9%, or 89,915 MT, in
August compared to the
same period the year prior.
This is the sixth consecutive
monthly decline as
import demand remained
constrained following
lockdown restrictions and
strong domestic production.
Lower volumes of WMP and
fluid milk products from
New Zealand and Germany
were partially offset by an
increase in infant formula
imports from Netherlands
and New Zealand.
Imports for the 12 months to
August were down 15.3%, or
638,784 MT, driven by whey,
fluid milk products, WMP
and SMP.
LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA
1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.
%
%
%%
%
Change for June 2022
compared to June 2021
Change for August 2022
compared to August 2021
Change for June 2022
compared to June 2021
Change for June 2022
compared to June 2021
Change for the 12 months
to June 2022
Change for the 12 months
to June 2022
Change for the 12 months
to June 2022
24.98.714.6
5.212.5
%
Change for the 12 months
to August 2022
15.3
18.2
3.1
%
%
To view a table that shows
detailed milk collections in New
Zealand and Australia compared
to the previous season –
%
%%
Season-to-date
1 July to 31 August
Season-to-date
1 June to 31 August
Season-to-date
1 June to 31 August
Season-to-date
1 June to 31 August
Change for August 2022
compared to August 2021
Change for August 2022
compared to August 2021
Change for August 2022
compared to August2021
Change for August 2022
compared to August 2021
1.21.96.15.0
0.51.65.43.9
VOLUME M LITRESDAY
JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
5
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Milk Collections
NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA
New Zealand Milk Collections
Fonterra's Australia
collections
for the second
month of the new season
were 6.9 million kgMS, a 1.2%
increase on August last season.
Both off‑farm collections and
third‑party intake increased
year‑on‑year.
Season‑to‑date collections
reached 12.2 million kgMS,
0.5% behind last season.
The new season outlook
remains balanced. There
is a 70% chance of a third
consecutive La Niña developing
over spring/summer posing
risks to peak production
and flooding.
North Island milk
collections in August were
67.5 million kgMS, 6.1% behind
August last season.
Season‑to‑date collections
were 96.2 million kgMS, 5.4%
behind last season.
The North Island had a very wet
winter leading to pasture cover
and milk production being
lower than anticipated. Lower
pasture cover will be a focus
going into spring and mating.
South Island milk
collections in August were
24.4 million kgMS, 1.9% lower
than last August.
Season‑to‑date collections
were 29.6 million kgMS, 1.6%
ahead of last season.
Isolated flooding in the Upper
South Island caused significant
challenges on farm. Other
parts of the South Island have
had relatively normal late
winter conditions.
Fonterra's New Zealand
collections for August were
91.9 million kgMS, 5.0% lower
than last August.
Season‑to‑date collections
were 125.8 million kgMS, 3.9%
behind last season.
Wet conditions in most key
regions throughout July and
August led to lower milk
collections.
All dairy regions are making
good progress through calving
with the focus moving to
preparing for mating over the
coming months.
%%%
Forecast Farmgate Milk Price for
the 2022/23 season
Forecast milk collections for the
2022/23 season
NZD
per
kgMS
%
8.50-
10.00
1, 4 9 5
M
kgMS
Outlook for Fonterra
in New Zealand
%
%
%%%
%
To view more information,
including a snapshot of the
rolling year‑to‑date results –
%
6
GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE
SEP
APR SEP NOV FEB APR JUL SEP NOV
FEB JUL
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
PRICE INDEX
NZD USD
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results
Fonterra GDT sales
by destination:
Dairy commodity
prices and New
Zealand dollar trend
Recent US inflation data was
stronger than expected resulting
in financial markets re‑pricing
both the speed of change, and
the ultimate level, to which US
interest rates will be increased.
Correspondingly, the USD
strengthened with the higher US
interest rate outlook – the NZD
falling to near 58 US cents.
Fonterra GDT results at
last trading event
20 September 2022:
The next trading event will be held on 4 October 2022. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.
Change in Fonterra’s
weighted average product
price from previous event
1.5
Fonterra’s weighted
average product price
(USD/MT)
4,087
USD
Fonterra product quantity
sold on GDT
000’ MT
25.3
NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)
SOUTH EAST ASIA
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
OTHER
USD 3,540/MT
1.3
SMP
USD 5,901/MT
3.9
AMF
USD 5,147/MT
2.0
CHEDDAR
USD 3,733/MT
3.4
WMP
USD 5,356/MT
0.3
BUTTER
25,261
MT
LATEST AUCTION
107,392
MT
FINANCIAL
YEAR‑TO‑DATE
Our Co-op
7
Fonterra launches
wellbeing nutrition
solutions brand , Nutiani
Fonterra is taking another
step towards its strategic
aspiration to be a leader
in nutrition science and
innovation with the launch
of a new wellbeing solution
brand, Nutiani.
The new business‑to‑
business brand is targeted
at both the multi‑billion‑
dollar medical and everyday
wellbeing nutrition markets.
Fonterra’s Chief Innovation
and Brand Officer
Komal Mistry‑Mehta says the
creation of the new brand
brings to life concepts that
help customers tailor their
products to meet consumers’
evolving wellbeing
nutrition needs.
“Our health and wellbeing
customers are facing
growing pressure to
accelerate their innovation
pipeline to respond to these
dynamic consumer demands,
yet they face common
challenges during new
product development and
are looking for partners to fill
their capability gaps.
“Nutiani answers this
need by providing a suite
of solutions which help
customers tackle the pain
points associated with
each step of the innovation
journey – from identifying
the opportunity to validating
the final product.”
Nutiani will offer end‑to‑
end solutions to customers
through a combination of
wellbeing nutrition products,
concepts and services
that leverage the Co‑op’s
intellectual property and
investments in research.
“We see a clear opportunity
to win in critical segments
of the global wellbeing
nutrition space. Fonterra’s
deep expertise in nutrition
science gives us an incredible
advantage here.
“We will use Fonterra’s
existing expertise in nutrition
science to develop targeted
solutions, while opening up
opportunities for strategic
partnerships to deliver
access to new markets
and consumers,” says
Ms Mistry‑Mehta.
The opportunity for the
Co‑op is significant. The
global markets for physical,
mental and inner wellbeing
nutrition are growing at 6%
per year with annual sales
of US$66 billion today, while
medical nutrition has annual
sales of US$50 billion and
growing 5% annually.
“There’s no doubt that
people are paying more
attention to wellbeing
and managing it through
diet. Research shows 96%
of consumers actively
manage their wellbeing,
with more than half of
these consciously managing
their diet to improve
their wellbeing,” says
Ms Mistry‑Mehta.
“To create a greater impact
in the health and wellbeing
space, we must not only
capture the opportunities
we see today but also look
to the future, helping our
customers stay ahead of
the curve.”
The numbers:
• The global markets for
physical, mental and
inner wellbeing nutrition
are growing at 6.1% per
year with annual sales of
US$66 billion.
• Medical nutrition
has annual sales of
US$50 billion and growing
5% annually.
• 90% of global consumers
believe that being healthy
involves looking after
all aspects of wellbeing,
including physical
and mental.¹
• 96% of consumers actively
take steps to manage
their wellbeing, including
maintaining a healthy and
balanced diet.¹
• 56% of consumers manage
their health via their diet.²
1 Source: Nutiani Wellbeing Research.
2 Source: IPSOS Nutiani, Consumer Wellness Research (August 2021).
PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
DEC JUL
JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR
LIQUID MILK M LITRES
EXPORTS
AUSTRALIA
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
MAY
MT s
AVERAGE
IMPORTS
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA
ASIACHINA
SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT
MT s
AVERAGE
8
Supplementary Information
Global Dairy Market
The charts on the right
illustrate the year‑on‑year
changes in imports, exports
and production for a range of
countries that are important
players in global dairy trade.
The absolute size of
the bars represents the
change in imports, exports
or production, relative
to the same period the
previous year.
Averages are shown where
data is complete for the
regions presented.
NOTE: Data for EU to June; Australia to July; New Zealand and US to August.
NOTE: Data for EU to June; US and Australia to July; New Zealand to August.
NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa and Latin America to June; China to August.
SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR MAR JAN OCT FEB JUL AUG MAY SEP NOV DEC JUN
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD MT
9
Supplementary Information
Fonterra milk
production
The table on the right
shows Fonterra milk solids
collected in New Zealand
and Australia compared
to the previous season.
MILK COLLECTION
(MILLION KGMS)
AUGUST
2022
AUGUST
2021
MONTHLY
CHANGE
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2022/23
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2021/22
SEASON-
TO-DATE
CHANGE
Total Fonterra
New Zealand
91.996.7(5.0%)125.8130.9(3.9%)
North Island67.571.8(6.1%)96.2101.7(5.4%)
South Island24.424.9(1.9%)29.629.21.6%
Australia6.96.81.2%12.212.2(0.5%)
Fonterra GDT results
This table provides more
information on the latest
results, including a snapshot
of the year‑to‑date results.
LAST TRADING EVENT
(20 SEPTEMBER 2022)
YEAR-TO-DATE
(FROM 1 AUGUST 2021)
Quantity Sold on GDT
(Winning MT)
25,261107,392
Change in Quantity Sold on GDT
over same period last year
6.6%15.4%
Weighted Average Product Price
(USD/MT)
4,0873,948
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price over same period
last year
0.8%0.3%
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price from previous event
1.5%–
Fonterra GDT results
This chart shows Fonterra
GDT prices and volumes over
the past 12 months.
10
AMF
Anhydrous Milk Fat.
BMP
Butter Milk Powder.
Cultured Products
Fermented milks that are
prepared by using starter
cultures and controlled
fermentation including
yoghurt, yoghurt drinks, sour
cream, crème fraiche.
DIRA
Dairy Industry Restructuring
Act 2001 (New Zealand).
Farmgate Milk Price
The price for milk supplied in
New Zealand to Fonterra by
farmer shareholders.
Fluid Products
The Fonterra grouping
of fluid milk products
(skim milk, whole milk
and cream – pasteurised
or UHT processed),
concentrated milk products
(evaporated milk and
sweetened condensed milk)
and yoghurt.
GDT
Global Dairy Trade, the
online provider of the twice
monthly global auctions of
dairy ingredients.
kgMS
Kilogram of milk solids, the
measure of the amount of
fat and protein in the milk
supplied to Fonterra.
MPC
Milk Protein Concentrate.
Non‑Reference Products
All dairy products,
except for Reference
Products, produced
by the New Zealand
Ingredients business.
Reference Products
The dairy products used
in the calculation of the
Farmgate Milk Price, which
are currently WMP, SMP,
BMP, butter and AMF.
Glossary
Season
New Zealand: A period
of 12 months to 31 May
in each year.
Australia: A period of
12 months to 30 June
in each year.
SMP
Skim Milk Powder.
WMP
Whole Milk Powder.
WPC
Whey Protein Concentrate.
WPI
Whey Protein Isolate.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time
Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update September 20222022-09-29
“• On 22 September, Fonterra announced its FY22 Annual Results. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Milk volumes down in New Zealand. US monthly production improves. Production declines in Australia and EU. • Strong growth in New Zealand monthly exports. US exports up. Australia…”
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update October 20222022-10-30
“• Fonterra announces sustainable finance framework. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Production down in New Zealand and Australia. US monthly production continues to improve. • New Zealand monthly exports show strong growth and US exports continue to increase. Australia and E…”
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update November 20222022-11-29
“• Fonterra announces divestment of Chile business. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Monthly production declines in New Zealand and Australia. 12‑month production declines in US, EU, New Zealand and Australia. • New Zealand monthly exports flat. Australia and EU monthly exports…”