Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited logo

Global Dairy Update October 2022

Operational Update30 October 2022FCGConsumer Staples

• Fonterra announces sustainable finance framework.
1

Global Dairy

UPDATE

• Production down in New Zealand and

Australia. US monthly production continues

to improve.

• New Zealand monthly exports show strong

growth and US exports continue to increase.

Australia and EU monthly exports decline.

• China imports continue to decline.

Middle East & Africa and Asia monthly imports

decline. Latin America imports continue

to grow.

• Fonterra New Zealand milk collections in

September were 166.3 million kgMS, down

3.9% on the prior season.

• Fonterra Australia milk collections for

September were 10.0 million kgMS, down

4.7% on last season.

• Fonterra trials world first in organic electricity storage.

Key Dates

10 November 2022

Fonterra Co‑operative Group

Annual Meeting

14 November 2022

Fonterra Shareholders' Fund

Annual Meeting

8 December 2022

FY23 Q1 Business Update

OCTOBER 2022

%
%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for September 2022

compared to September 2021

Change for September 2022

compared to September 2021

Change for August 2022

compared to August 2021

Change for August 2022

compared to August 2021

Change for the 12 months

to September 2022

Change for the 12 months

to September 2022

Change for the 12 months

to August 2022

Change for the 12 months

to August 2022

1.55.93.2

4.10.70.1

0.8

4.3

2

OUR MARKETS

Global Production

Production down in

New Zealand and Australia.

US monthly production

continues to improve

New Zealand milk

production¹ was down 3.2%

on a litres basis, (down 3.8% on

milk solids basis) in September

compared to the same period

the year prior.

Significant rainfall in parts of

the North Island are impacting

peak milk production. South

Island conditions were

more favourable.

New Zealand milk production

for the 12 months to September

was down 4.3% on the

year prior.

Fonterra New Zealand

collections are reported

for September, see page 5

for details.

Australia milk production

decreased 5.9% in August

compared to the same period

the year prior.

The decline was driven by lower

production in Tasmania, down

6.5%, and Victoria, down 4.1%.

Australia milk production for

the 12 months to August was

4.1% lower than the year prior.

New season Australian milk

production has a forecast range

from remaining flat to marginal

growth year‑on‑year.

Fonterra collections in Australia

are reported for September, see

page 5 for details.

EU milk production²

decreased 0.8% in August

compared to the same period

the year prior. Production

remained constrained with

many countries impacted by

drought conditions, limited

feed availability and high

input costs.

Production declines were

observed in Italy, France and

Spain while production in

the Netherlands and Poland

improved year‑on‑year.

EU milk production for the

12 months to August declined

0.7% compared to the same

period the year prior, driven by

declines in Germany, France,

and the Netherlands and

partially offset by increases in

Poland, Austria and Italy.

US milk production

increased by 1.5% in September,

compared to the same period

the year prior.

This is the third consecutive

monthly year‑on‑year increase

and reflects the gradual herd

size growth and increased milk

per cow yield.

Milk production for the

12 months to September

declined 0.1% compared to the

same period the year prior.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

To view a chart that

illustrates year‑on‑year

changes in production –

1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.

2 Excludes UK.

To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

Global Exports

New Zealand monthly

exports show strong growth

and US exports continue to

increase. Australia and EU

monthly exports decline

Total New Zealand dairy

exports were up 30.9%,

or 56,539 MT, in September

compared to the same

period the year prior.

September shipments were

in line with August with

the year‑on‑year increase

reflecting the shipping

of some of the additional

inventory held as a result

of shipping challenges in

July. WMP, cheese and AMF

exports were the main

drivers of this increase.

Exports for the 12 months

to September were down

by 4.8%, or 172,952 MT, on

the previous comparable

period. This was primarily

driven by decreases in WMP

and cheese.

EU dairy exports

decreased 18.3%, or

107,404 MT, in August

compared to the same

period the year prior.

Lower volumes were driven

by decreases in fluid milk

products, cheese and SMP

from Germany and France

and partially offset by

increases in infant formula

from the Netherlands.

Exports for the 12 months

to August were down 8.3%,

or 604,554 MT, on the

previous comparable period,

driven by declines in fluid

milk products, SMP, cheese,

WMP and whey and partially

offset by increases in infant

formula and MPC.

US dairy exports

increased 4.9%, or 11,778  MT,

in August compared to the

same period the year prior.

Stronger demand for lactose

by China and New Zealand,

whey by China and Malaysia,

butter by Bahrain and WPC

by China, are driving this

increase. This was partially

offset by lower shipments of

SMP to the Philippines.

Exports for the 12 months

to August were up 4.6%, or

123,780 MT, on the previous

comparable period, driven by

cheese, lactose, butter, fluid

milk products and AMF.

Australia dairy

exports decreased 15.2%,

or 9,898 MT, in August

compared to the same

period the year prior.

Fluid milk products and

WMP exports declined year

on year and were partially

offset by an increase in other

powders, and cheese.

Exports for the 12 months

to August were up 14.0%, or

113,984 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was predominantly

driven by increases in fluid

milk products, SMP and

other powders.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

%%%

%

%

%

Change for September 2022

compared September 2021

Change for August 2022

compared to August 2021

Change for August 2022

compared to August 2021

Change for August 2022

compared to August 2021

Change for the 12 months

to September 2022

Change for the 12 months

to August 2022

Change for the 12 months

to August 2022

Change for the 12 months

to August 2022

4.915.2

30.9

14.0

18.3

4.68.34.8

%

%

To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

Global Imports

China imports continue

to decline. Middle East &

Africa and Asia monthly

imports decline. Latin

America imports continue

to grow

Latin America dairy

import volumes

¹ increased

17.8%, or 31,874 MT, in

August compared to the

same period the year prior.

The increase was driven by

stronger demand for WMP to

Brazil and SMP to Mexico.

Imports for the 12 months

to August were up 5.5%

compared to the same

period the year prior, driven

by higher volumes of cheese,

SMP, whey, and MPC and

partially offset by declines

in WMP.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes

¹

decreased 3.6%, or 16,738 MT,

in August compared to the

same period the year prior.

The decrease was driven

by lower whey imports

to Vietnam.

Imports for the 12 months

to August were up 3.1%,

or 152,750 MT, compared

to the same period the

year prior, driven by higher

volumes of SMP, WPC and

cultured products.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes

¹

decreased 12.6%, or

60,722 MT, in August

compared to the same

period the year prior.

The decrease was driven by

lower volumes of fluid milk

products to South Africa and

WMP to Nigeria.

Imports for the 12 months

to August were up 12.5%, or

589,502 MT, compared to

August the year prior, driven

by increases in SMP, cheese

and whey.

China dairy import

volumes decreased by

6.0%, or 16,685 MT, in

September compared to the

same period the year prior.

Imports declined for the

seventh consecutive month

year‑on‑year as ongoing

Covid restrictions continue

to impact demand. This

was mainly driven by lower

imports of WMP, SMP and

fluid milk products from

New Zealand.

Imports for the 12 months

to September were down

15. 6%, or 650,043 MT, driven

by fluid milk products, whey,

WMP and SMP.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%

%

%%

%

Change for August 2022

compared to August 2021

Change for September 2022

compared to September 2021

Change for August 2022

compared to August 2021

Change for August 2022

compared to August 2021

Change for the 12 months

to August 2022

Change for the 12 months

to August 2022

Change for the 12 months

to August 2022

6.03.617.8

3.112.5

%

Change for the 12 months

to September 2022

15.6

12.6

5.5

%

%

To view a table that shows
detailed milk collections in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%

%%

Season-to-date

1 July to 30 September

Season-to-date

1 June to 30 September

Season-to-date

1 June to 30 September

Season-to-date

1 June to 30 September

Change for September 2022

compared to September 2021

Change for September 2022

compared to September 2021

Change for September 2022

compared to September

Change for September 2022

compared to September 2021

4.70.16.33.9

2.60.65.93.9

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY



















5

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Milk Collections

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

New Zealand Milk Collections

Fonterra's Australia

collections

for the third

month of the new season

were 10.0 million kgMS, a

4.7% decrease on September

last season.

Farm collections were flat year‑

on‑year and third‑party intake

decreased 0.4 million kgMS.

Season‑to‑date collections

reached 22.1 million kgMS,

2.6% behind last season.

The new season outlook

remains balanced. A third

consecutive La Nina weather

event has now been declared

and major water storages are

at or over capacity and spilling.

Wet conditions on farm and

flooding are the major risks

to production.

North Island milk

collections in September

were 102.5 million kgMS, 6.3%

behind September last season.

Milk in the North Island

was significantly down in

September leading into the

peak producing months.

Lower sunshine hours and the

continued wet weather has led

to lower than optimal pasture

covers leading into mating.

Season‑to‑date collections

were 198.7 million kgMS, 5.9%

behind last season.

South Island milk

collections in September were

63.8 million kgMS, 0.1% higher

than last September.

Most parts of the South Island

had relatively normal spring

growing conditions leading to

favourable pasture covers and

milk production.

Season‑to‑date collections

were 93.4 million kgMS, 0.6%

ahead of last season.

Fonterra's New Zealand

collections for September

were 166.3 million kgMS, 3.9%

lower than last September.

September brought a tale of

two islands with relatively

normal early Spring conditions

in the South Island in contrast

to continued wet, sub‑optimal

growing conditions in the

North Island.

Season‑to‑date collections

were 292.1 million kgMS, 3.9%

behind last season.

%%%

Forecast Farmgate Milk Price for

the 2022/23 season

Forecast milk collections for the

2022/23 season

NZD

per

kgMS

%

8.50-

10.00

1, 4 8 0

m kgMS

from 1,495m

kgMS

Outlook for Fonterra

in New Zealand

%

%
%%%

%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year‑to‑date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

OCT  OCT  FEB JUN OCT FEB  JUN 



, 

,

,

,

,

.

.

.

.

.

.

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity prices and New Zealand

dollar trend

Global inflation remains stubbornly high supporting additional

rapid tightening of monetary policy settings and interest rates

in most countries. The resulting increase in borrowing costs,

together with heightened geo‑political risks, lead to further

risk aversion in financial markets which resulted in additional

demand for safe haven assets and the USD. The NZD declined

to near 55 US cents, before stabilising around 56.5 US cents.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

18 October 2022:

The next trading event will be held on 1 November 2022. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

4.5

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

3,752

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

28.2

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 3,246/MT

7.4

SMP

USD 5,661/MT

2.6

AMF

USD 4,769/MT

4.0

CHEDDAR

USD 4,851/MT

2.6

BUTTER

USD 3,421/MT

4.3

WMP

28,202

MT

LATEST AUCTION

165,073

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
For the Framework, the

opinion issued by ISS

Corporate Solutions and a

presentation to update debt

investors –

To view the 2022 Fonterra

Sustainability Report –

Fonterra announces

sustainable finance

framework

As part of Fonterra's

commitment to sustainability

and implementation of its

strategy, the Co‑operative

has released its Sustainable

Finance Framework

(Framework). This

Framework aligns Fonterra’s

funding strategy with its

sustainability ambitions

and reflects the evolving

preferences of lenders and

debt investors in this area.

Fonterra’s Framework

outlines how the

Co‑operative intends to issue

and manage any sustainable

debt, which could

include Green Bonds and

Sustainability‑Linked Bonds

and Loans. The Framework

has been developed

with Joint Sustainability

Co‑ordinators HSBC and

Westpac NZ and has been

independently verified by

ISS Corporate Solutions

confirming alignment with

globally agreed sustainable

finance principles.

“This new Framework is

a step on our sustainable

financing journey – aligning

with our Co‑operative's

broader sustainability

ambitions,” says Simon Till,

Fonterra Director

Capital Markets.

“Over the next decade

we intend to significantly

increase our investment

in sustainability‑related

activities and assets

throughout our supply

chain to both mitigate

environmental risks and

continue to differentiate

our New Zealand milk. By

FY30 we intend to invest

around NZ$1 billion in

reducing carbon emissions

and improving water

efficiency and treatment at

our manufacturing sites. In

doing so, we will be taking

significant steps towards our

aspiration to be Net Zero

by 2050 and we plan to

align our funding with

this approach.”

This announcement comes

off the back of strong annual

sustainability performance

reported in September 2022.

Our Performance

Our Co-op
8

Fonterra trials world

first in organic

electricity storage

A new organic, low‑cost,

safe, sustainable and long‑

life battery being trialled

by Fonterra, could support

greater energy security

and distributed electricity

generation for New Zealand.

PolyJoule, a Massachusetts

Institute of Technology (MIT)

spin‑off, is partnering with

Fonterra on the application

of the battery made from

electrically conductive

polymers, an organic based

compound with the ability to

act like metal.

Late last year the world’s

first industrial scale organic

battery was installed on a

Fonterra farm at Te Rapa.

The battery was cycled

daily, supporting dairy shed

operations for 10 months.

The Co‑op is now moving

this battery to its Waitoa

UHT site, which can

be impacted by power

disturbances leading to

downtime and waste.

Fonterra Chief Operating

Officer Fraser Whineray says

as a significant electricity

user at about 2.5% of the

national grid, a sustainable

and secure electricity supply

is vital to the Co‑operative’s

local sales and exports.

“At Fonterra we have

a strategy to lead in

sustainability, and innovation

partnerships are a critical

ingredient to achieving this.

“The PolyJoule battery has a

remarkable discharge rate,

which may ultimately link

with ultra‑fast charging of

our fleet, including Milk‑E

our electric milk tanker.”

PolyJoule CEO Eli Paster

says he’s excited to partner

with Fonterra and sees great

opportunity for growth

in New Zealand both in

terms of supporting energy

security and job creation

in the manufacturing and

technology sectors.

“We both have sustainability

front and centre of our

strategy and understand

the importance of a reliable,

green supply of electricity

for quickly chilling the raw

milk on farm, processing and

distribution. New Zealand is

a world leader in protecting

the environment. Fonterra is

a world leader in nutrition.

We couldn’t think of a better

partner to work with."

“Since PolyJoule batteries do

not rely on lithium, nickel,

or lead, the materials are

easier to source and the

batteries are safer and easier

to manufacture anywhere

in the world, including

New Zealand."

“When you look at where

the grid is heading and the

number of batteries needed

for the region, building

a manufacturing base in

New Zealand could create

hundreds of new jobs and a

new green energy hub.”

The PolyJoule battery

installation is the third

decarbonisation project

Fonterra’s Waitoa site has

recently adopted. Last month

it announced the site would

install a new biomass boiler

and it will also be home to

Milk‑E – New Zealand’s first

electric milk tanker.

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL 

JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES

















EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC 

NOV 

OCT 

SEP MAY 

MT s



















AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT 

MT s



















AVERAGE

9


Supplementary Information

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year‑on‑year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to August; New Zealand and US to September.

NOTE: Data for EU, US and Australia to August; New Zealand to September.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa and Latin America to August; China to September.

SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR MAR JAN OCT FEB JUL AUG MAY SEP NOV DEC JUN

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT

QUANTITY SOLD  MT

10


Supplementary Information

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

SEPTEMBER

2022

SEPTEMBER


2021

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2022/23

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2021/22

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

166.3173.0(3.9%)292.1303.9(3.9%)

North Island102.5109.3(6.3%)198.7211.0(5.9%)

South Island63.863.70.1%93.492.80.6%

Australia10.010.4(4.7%)22.122.7(2.6%)

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year‑to‑date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(18 OCTOBER 2022)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2021)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

28,202165,073

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

3.8%11. 4%

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

3,7523,911

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

(8.3%)(1.7%)

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

(4.5%)–

Fonterra GDT results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

11
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

Cultured Products

Fermented milks that are

prepared by using starter

cultures and controlled

fermentation including

yoghurt, yoghurt drinks, sour

cream, crème fraiche.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non‑Reference Products

All dairy products,

except for Reference

Products, produced

by the New Zealand

Ingredients business.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.


Glossary

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate.

WPI

Whey Protein Isolate.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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