Global Dairy Update October 2022
• Fonterra announces sustainable finance framework.
1
Global Dairy
UPDATE
• Production down in New Zealand and
Australia. US monthly production continues
to improve.
• New Zealand monthly exports show strong
growth and US exports continue to increase.
Australia and EU monthly exports decline.
• China imports continue to decline.
Middle East & Africa and Asia monthly imports
decline. Latin America imports continue
to grow.
• Fonterra New Zealand milk collections in
September were 166.3 million kgMS, down
3.9% on the prior season.
• Fonterra Australia milk collections for
September were 10.0 million kgMS, down
4.7% on last season.
• Fonterra trials world first in organic electricity storage.
Key Dates
10 November 2022
Fonterra Co‑operative Group
Annual Meeting
14 November 2022
Fonterra Shareholders' Fund
Annual Meeting
8 December 2022
FY23 Q1 Business Update
OCTOBER 2022
%
%
%%
%
%
%%
Change for September 2022
compared to September 2021
Change for September 2022
compared to September 2021
Change for August 2022
compared to August 2021
Change for August 2022
compared to August 2021
Change for the 12 months
to September 2022
Change for the 12 months
to September 2022
Change for the 12 months
to August 2022
Change for the 12 months
to August 2022
1.55.93.2
4.10.70.1
0.8
4.3
2
OUR MARKETS
Global Production
Production down in
New Zealand and Australia.
US monthly production
continues to improve
New Zealand milk
production¹ was down 3.2%
on a litres basis, (down 3.8% on
milk solids basis) in September
compared to the same period
the year prior.
Significant rainfall in parts of
the North Island are impacting
peak milk production. South
Island conditions were
more favourable.
New Zealand milk production
for the 12 months to September
was down 4.3% on the
year prior.
Fonterra New Zealand
collections are reported
for September, see page 5
for details.
Australia milk production
decreased 5.9% in August
compared to the same period
the year prior.
The decline was driven by lower
production in Tasmania, down
6.5%, and Victoria, down 4.1%.
Australia milk production for
the 12 months to August was
4.1% lower than the year prior.
New season Australian milk
production has a forecast range
from remaining flat to marginal
growth year‑on‑year.
Fonterra collections in Australia
are reported for September, see
page 5 for details.
EU milk production²
decreased 0.8% in August
compared to the same period
the year prior. Production
remained constrained with
many countries impacted by
drought conditions, limited
feed availability and high
input costs.
Production declines were
observed in Italy, France and
Spain while production in
the Netherlands and Poland
improved year‑on‑year.
EU milk production for the
12 months to August declined
0.7% compared to the same
period the year prior, driven by
declines in Germany, France,
and the Netherlands and
partially offset by increases in
Poland, Austria and Italy.
US milk production
increased by 1.5% in September,
compared to the same period
the year prior.
This is the third consecutive
monthly year‑on‑year increase
and reflects the gradual herd
size growth and increased milk
per cow yield.
Milk production for the
12 months to September
declined 0.1% compared to the
same period the year prior.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year
changes in production –
1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.
2 Excludes UK.
To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year
changes in exports –
3
OUR MARKETS
Global Exports
New Zealand monthly
exports show strong growth
and US exports continue to
increase. Australia and EU
monthly exports decline
Total New Zealand dairy
exports were up 30.9%,
or 56,539 MT, in September
compared to the same
period the year prior.
September shipments were
in line with August with
the year‑on‑year increase
reflecting the shipping
of some of the additional
inventory held as a result
of shipping challenges in
July. WMP, cheese and AMF
exports were the main
drivers of this increase.
Exports for the 12 months
to September were down
by 4.8%, or 172,952 MT, on
the previous comparable
period. This was primarily
driven by decreases in WMP
and cheese.
EU dairy exports
decreased 18.3%, or
107,404 MT, in August
compared to the same
period the year prior.
Lower volumes were driven
by decreases in fluid milk
products, cheese and SMP
from Germany and France
and partially offset by
increases in infant formula
from the Netherlands.
Exports for the 12 months
to August were down 8.3%,
or 604,554 MT, on the
previous comparable period,
driven by declines in fluid
milk products, SMP, cheese,
WMP and whey and partially
offset by increases in infant
formula and MPC.
US dairy exports
increased 4.9%, or 11,778 MT,
in August compared to the
same period the year prior.
Stronger demand for lactose
by China and New Zealand,
whey by China and Malaysia,
butter by Bahrain and WPC
by China, are driving this
increase. This was partially
offset by lower shipments of
SMP to the Philippines.
Exports for the 12 months
to August were up 4.6%, or
123,780 MT, on the previous
comparable period, driven by
cheese, lactose, butter, fluid
milk products and AMF.
Australia dairy
exports decreased 15.2%,
or 9,898 MT, in August
compared to the same
period the year prior.
Fluid milk products and
WMP exports declined year
on year and were partially
offset by an increase in other
powders, and cheese.
Exports for the 12 months
to August were up 14.0%, or
113,984 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was predominantly
driven by increases in fluid
milk products, SMP and
other powders.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
%%%
%
%
%
Change for September 2022
compared September 2021
Change for August 2022
compared to August 2021
Change for August 2022
compared to August 2021
Change for August 2022
compared to August 2021
Change for the 12 months
to September 2022
Change for the 12 months
to August 2022
Change for the 12 months
to August 2022
Change for the 12 months
to August 2022
4.915.2
30.9
14.0
18.3
4.68.34.8
%
%
To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year
changes in imports –
4
OUR MARKETS
Global Imports
China imports continue
to decline. Middle East &
Africa and Asia monthly
imports decline. Latin
America imports continue
to grow
Latin America dairy
import volumes
¹ increased
17.8%, or 31,874 MT, in
August compared to the
same period the year prior.
The increase was driven by
stronger demand for WMP to
Brazil and SMP to Mexico.
Imports for the 12 months
to August were up 5.5%
compared to the same
period the year prior, driven
by higher volumes of cheese,
SMP, whey, and MPC and
partially offset by declines
in WMP.
Asia (excluding China)
dairy import volumes
¹
decreased 3.6%, or 16,738 MT,
in August compared to the
same period the year prior.
The decrease was driven
by lower whey imports
to Vietnam.
Imports for the 12 months
to August were up 3.1%,
or 152,750 MT, compared
to the same period the
year prior, driven by higher
volumes of SMP, WPC and
cultured products.
Middle East and Africa
dairy import volumes
¹
decreased 12.6%, or
60,722 MT, in August
compared to the same
period the year prior.
The decrease was driven by
lower volumes of fluid milk
products to South Africa and
WMP to Nigeria.
Imports for the 12 months
to August were up 12.5%, or
589,502 MT, compared to
August the year prior, driven
by increases in SMP, cheese
and whey.
China dairy import
volumes decreased by
6.0%, or 16,685 MT, in
September compared to the
same period the year prior.
Imports declined for the
seventh consecutive month
year‑on‑year as ongoing
Covid restrictions continue
to impact demand. This
was mainly driven by lower
imports of WMP, SMP and
fluid milk products from
New Zealand.
Imports for the 12 months
to September were down
15. 6%, or 650,043 MT, driven
by fluid milk products, whey,
WMP and SMP.
LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA
1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.
%
%
%%
%
Change for August 2022
compared to August 2021
Change for September 2022
compared to September 2021
Change for August 2022
compared to August 2021
Change for August 2022
compared to August 2021
Change for the 12 months
to August 2022
Change for the 12 months
to August 2022
Change for the 12 months
to August 2022
6.03.617.8
3.112.5
%
Change for the 12 months
to September 2022
15.6
12.6
5.5
%
%
To view a table that shows
detailed milk collections in New
Zealand and Australia compared
to the previous season –
%
%%
Season-to-date
1 July to 30 September
Season-to-date
1 June to 30 September
Season-to-date
1 June to 30 September
Season-to-date
1 June to 30 September
Change for September 2022
compared to September 2021
Change for September 2022
compared to September 2021
Change for September 2022
compared to September
Change for September 2022
compared to September 2021
4.70.16.33.9
2.60.65.93.9
VOLUME M LITRESDAY
JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
5
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Milk Collections
NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA
New Zealand Milk Collections
Fonterra's Australia
collections
for the third
month of the new season
were 10.0 million kgMS, a
4.7% decrease on September
last season.
Farm collections were flat year‑
on‑year and third‑party intake
decreased 0.4 million kgMS.
Season‑to‑date collections
reached 22.1 million kgMS,
2.6% behind last season.
The new season outlook
remains balanced. A third
consecutive La Nina weather
event has now been declared
and major water storages are
at or over capacity and spilling.
Wet conditions on farm and
flooding are the major risks
to production.
North Island milk
collections in September
were 102.5 million kgMS, 6.3%
behind September last season.
Milk in the North Island
was significantly down in
September leading into the
peak producing months.
Lower sunshine hours and the
continued wet weather has led
to lower than optimal pasture
covers leading into mating.
Season‑to‑date collections
were 198.7 million kgMS, 5.9%
behind last season.
South Island milk
collections in September were
63.8 million kgMS, 0.1% higher
than last September.
Most parts of the South Island
had relatively normal spring
growing conditions leading to
favourable pasture covers and
milk production.
Season‑to‑date collections
were 93.4 million kgMS, 0.6%
ahead of last season.
Fonterra's New Zealand
collections for September
were 166.3 million kgMS, 3.9%
lower than last September.
September brought a tale of
two islands with relatively
normal early Spring conditions
in the South Island in contrast
to continued wet, sub‑optimal
growing conditions in the
North Island.
Season‑to‑date collections
were 292.1 million kgMS, 3.9%
behind last season.
%%%
Forecast Farmgate Milk Price for
the 2022/23 season
Forecast milk collections for the
2022/23 season
NZD
per
kgMS
%
8.50-
10.00
1, 4 8 0
m kgMS
from 1,495m
kgMS
Outlook for Fonterra
in New Zealand
%
%
%%%
%
To view more information,
including a snapshot of the
rolling year‑to‑date results –
%
6
GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE
OCT
OCT FEB JUN OCT FEB JUN
,
,
,
,
,
.
.
.
.
.
.
PRICE INDEX
NZD USD
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results
Fonterra GDT sales
by destination:
Dairy commodity prices and New Zealand
dollar trend
Global inflation remains stubbornly high supporting additional
rapid tightening of monetary policy settings and interest rates
in most countries. The resulting increase in borrowing costs,
together with heightened geo‑political risks, lead to further
risk aversion in financial markets which resulted in additional
demand for safe haven assets and the USD. The NZD declined
to near 55 US cents, before stabilising around 56.5 US cents.
Fonterra GDT results at
last trading event
18 October 2022:
The next trading event will be held on 1 November 2022. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.
Change in Fonterra’s
weighted average product
price from previous event
4.5
Fonterra’s weighted
average product price
(USD/MT)
3,752
USD
Fonterra product quantity
sold on GDT
000’ MT
28.2
NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)
SOUTH EAST ASIA
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
OTHER
USD 3,246/MT
7.4
SMP
USD 5,661/MT
2.6
AMF
USD 4,769/MT
4.0
CHEDDAR
USD 4,851/MT
2.6
BUTTER
USD 3,421/MT
4.3
WMP
28,202
MT
LATEST AUCTION
165,073
MT
FINANCIAL
YEAR‑TO‑DATE
7
For the Framework, the
opinion issued by ISS
Corporate Solutions and a
presentation to update debt
investors –
To view the 2022 Fonterra
Sustainability Report –
Fonterra announces
sustainable finance
framework
As part of Fonterra's
commitment to sustainability
and implementation of its
strategy, the Co‑operative
has released its Sustainable
Finance Framework
(Framework). This
Framework aligns Fonterra’s
funding strategy with its
sustainability ambitions
and reflects the evolving
preferences of lenders and
debt investors in this area.
Fonterra’s Framework
outlines how the
Co‑operative intends to issue
and manage any sustainable
debt, which could
include Green Bonds and
Sustainability‑Linked Bonds
and Loans. The Framework
has been developed
with Joint Sustainability
Co‑ordinators HSBC and
Westpac NZ and has been
independently verified by
ISS Corporate Solutions
confirming alignment with
globally agreed sustainable
finance principles.
“This new Framework is
a step on our sustainable
financing journey – aligning
with our Co‑operative's
broader sustainability
ambitions,” says Simon Till,
Fonterra Director
Capital Markets.
“Over the next decade
we intend to significantly
increase our investment
in sustainability‑related
activities and assets
throughout our supply
chain to both mitigate
environmental risks and
continue to differentiate
our New Zealand milk. By
FY30 we intend to invest
around NZ$1 billion in
reducing carbon emissions
and improving water
efficiency and treatment at
our manufacturing sites. In
doing so, we will be taking
significant steps towards our
aspiration to be Net Zero
by 2050 and we plan to
align our funding with
this approach.”
This announcement comes
off the back of strong annual
sustainability performance
reported in September 2022.
Our Performance
Our Co-op
8
Fonterra trials world
first in organic
electricity storage
A new organic, low‑cost,
safe, sustainable and long‑
life battery being trialled
by Fonterra, could support
greater energy security
and distributed electricity
generation for New Zealand.
PolyJoule, a Massachusetts
Institute of Technology (MIT)
spin‑off, is partnering with
Fonterra on the application
of the battery made from
electrically conductive
polymers, an organic based
compound with the ability to
act like metal.
Late last year the world’s
first industrial scale organic
battery was installed on a
Fonterra farm at Te Rapa.
The battery was cycled
daily, supporting dairy shed
operations for 10 months.
The Co‑op is now moving
this battery to its Waitoa
UHT site, which can
be impacted by power
disturbances leading to
downtime and waste.
Fonterra Chief Operating
Officer Fraser Whineray says
as a significant electricity
user at about 2.5% of the
national grid, a sustainable
and secure electricity supply
is vital to the Co‑operative’s
local sales and exports.
“At Fonterra we have
a strategy to lead in
sustainability, and innovation
partnerships are a critical
ingredient to achieving this.
“The PolyJoule battery has a
remarkable discharge rate,
which may ultimately link
with ultra‑fast charging of
our fleet, including Milk‑E
our electric milk tanker.”
PolyJoule CEO Eli Paster
says he’s excited to partner
with Fonterra and sees great
opportunity for growth
in New Zealand both in
terms of supporting energy
security and job creation
in the manufacturing and
technology sectors.
“We both have sustainability
front and centre of our
strategy and understand
the importance of a reliable,
green supply of electricity
for quickly chilling the raw
milk on farm, processing and
distribution. New Zealand is
a world leader in protecting
the environment. Fonterra is
a world leader in nutrition.
We couldn’t think of a better
partner to work with."
“Since PolyJoule batteries do
not rely on lithium, nickel,
or lead, the materials are
easier to source and the
batteries are safer and easier
to manufacture anywhere
in the world, including
New Zealand."
“When you look at where
the grid is heading and the
number of batteries needed
for the region, building
a manufacturing base in
New Zealand could create
hundreds of new jobs and a
new green energy hub.”
The PolyJoule battery
installation is the third
decarbonisation project
Fonterra’s Waitoa site has
recently adopted. Last month
it announced the site would
install a new biomass boiler
and it will also be home to
Milk‑E – New Zealand’s first
electric milk tanker.
PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
DEC JUL
JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR
LIQUID MILK M LITRES
EXPORTS
AUSTRALIA
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP MAY
MT s
AVERAGE
IMPORTS
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA
ASIACHINA
SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT
MT s
AVERAGE
9
Supplementary Information
Global Dairy Market
The charts on the right
illustrate the year‑on‑year
changes in imports, exports
and production for a range of
countries that are important
players in global dairy trade.
The absolute size of
the bars represents the
change in imports, exports
or production, relative
to the same period the
previous year.
Averages are shown where
data is complete for the
regions presented.
NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to August; New Zealand and US to September.
NOTE: Data for EU, US and Australia to August; New Zealand to September.
NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa and Latin America to August; China to September.
SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR MAR JAN OCT FEB JUL AUG MAY SEP NOV DEC JUN
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD MT
10
Supplementary Information
Fonterra milk
production
The table on the right
shows Fonterra milk solids
collected in New Zealand
and Australia compared
to the previous season.
MILK COLLECTION
(MILLION KGMS)
SEPTEMBER
2022
SEPTEMBER
2021
MONTHLY
CHANGE
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2022/23
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2021/22
SEASON-
TO-DATE
CHANGE
Total Fonterra
New Zealand
166.3173.0(3.9%)292.1303.9(3.9%)
North Island102.5109.3(6.3%)198.7211.0(5.9%)
South Island63.863.70.1%93.492.80.6%
Australia10.010.4(4.7%)22.122.7(2.6%)
Fonterra GDT results
This table provides more
information on the latest
results, including a snapshot
of the year‑to‑date results.
LAST TRADING EVENT
(18 OCTOBER 2022)
YEAR-TO-DATE
(FROM 1 AUGUST 2021)
Quantity Sold on GDT
(Winning MT)
28,202165,073
Change in Quantity Sold on GDT
over same period last year
3.8%11. 4%
Weighted Average Product Price
(USD/MT)
3,7523,911
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price over same period
last year
(8.3%)(1.7%)
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price from previous event
(4.5%)–
Fonterra GDT results
This chart shows Fonterra
GDT prices and volumes over
the past 12 months.
11
AMF
Anhydrous Milk Fat.
BMP
Butter Milk Powder.
Cultured Products
Fermented milks that are
prepared by using starter
cultures and controlled
fermentation including
yoghurt, yoghurt drinks, sour
cream, crème fraiche.
DIRA
Dairy Industry Restructuring
Act 2001 (New Zealand).
Farmgate Milk Price
The price for milk supplied in
New Zealand to Fonterra by
farmer shareholders.
Fluid Products
The Fonterra grouping
of fluid milk products
(skim milk, whole milk
and cream – pasteurised
or UHT processed),
concentrated milk products
(evaporated milk and
sweetened condensed milk)
and yoghurt.
GDT
Global Dairy Trade, the
online provider of the twice
monthly global auctions of
dairy ingredients.
kgMS
Kilogram of milk solids, the
measure of the amount of
fat and protein in the milk
supplied to Fonterra.
MPC
Milk Protein Concentrate.
Non‑Reference Products
All dairy products,
except for Reference
Products, produced
by the New Zealand
Ingredients business.
Reference Products
The dairy products used
in the calculation of the
Farmgate Milk Price, which
are currently WMP, SMP,
BMP, butter and AMF.
Glossary
Season
New Zealand: A period
of 12 months to 31 May
in each year.
Australia: A period of
12 months to 30 June
in each year.
SMP
Skim Milk Powder.
WMP
Whole Milk Powder.
WPC
Whey Protein Concentrate.
WPI
Whey Protein Isolate.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time
Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update October 20222022-10-30
“• Fonterra announces sustainable finance framework. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Production down in New Zealand and Australia. US monthly production continues to improve. • New Zealand monthly exports show strong growth and US exports continue to increase. Australia and E…”
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update September 20222022-09-29
“• On 22 September, Fonterra announced its FY22 Annual Results. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Milk volumes down in New Zealand. US monthly production improves. Production declines in Australia and EU. • Strong growth in New Zealand monthly exports. US exports up. Australia…”
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update November 20222022-11-29
“• Fonterra announces divestment of Chile business. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Monthly production declines in New Zealand and Australia. 12‑month production declines in US, EU, New Zealand and Australia. • New Zealand monthly exports flat. Australia and EU monthly exports…”