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Global Dairy Update January 2023

Operational Update30 January 2023FSFConsumer Staples

• On 8 December, Fonterra
provided a 2023 Q1

business update.

• Deloitte Top 200 Awards.

1

Global Dairy

UPDATE

• New Zealand monthly production volumes

in line with last season. Australia production

continues to decline. US and EU monthly

production increases.

• New Zealand, Australia and EU monthly

exports decline. US exports continue

to increase.

• China, Middle East & Africa and Asia monthly

imports decline. Latin America imports

continue to grow.

• Fonterra New Zealand milk collections for

December were 174.0 million kgMS, 0.3%

higher than December in the season prior.

• Fonterra Australia milk collections for

December were 11.0 million kgMS, 3.2% down

on December in the prior season.

• Net zero carbon emissions dairy farm.

• Fonterra partners with Government and industry to tackle on

farm emissions.

Key Dates

December to February 2023

Application Period to

Supply Fonterra

16 March 2023

FY23 Interim Results

Announcement

May 2023

FY23 Q3 Business Update

JANUARY 2023

For further details –

%
%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for December 2022

compared to December 2021

Change for December 2022

compared to December 2021

Change for November 2022

compared to November 2021

Change for October 2022

compared to October 2021

Change for the 12 months

to December 2022

Change for the 12 months

to December 2022

Change for the 12 months

to November 2022

Change for the 12 months

to October 2022

0.89.70.6

6.20.40.2

1.7

3.8

2

OUR MARKETS

Global Production

New Zealand monthly

production volumes in line

with last season. Australia

production continues to

decline. US and EU monthly

production increases

New Zealand¹ milk

production was down 0.6%

on a litres basis, (up 0.6% on

milk solids basis) in December

compared to the same period

the year prior.

Warm temperatures with

above normal rainfall have

helped pasture condition

but production in December

remains low, largely in line with

the weak production in the

previous December.

New Zealand milk production

for the 12 months to December

was down 3.8% on the

year prior.

Fonterra New Zealand

collections are reported

for December, see page 5

for details.

Australia milk production

decreased 9.7% in November

compared to the same period

the year prior.

A significantly wetter and

colder spring materially

impacted the availability

and quality of pasture, silage

and hay.

Summer conditions have been

more favourable and milk

production is beginning to

stabilise through December

and January.

Australia milk production for

the 12 months to November

was 6.2% lower than the

year prior.

Fonterra collections in Australia

are reported for December, see

page 5 for details.

EU milk production²

increased 1.7% in October

year‑on‑year, on the back of

weak production in October

last year.

The production increase was

driven primarily by Germany,

the Netherlands, Ireland and

France and partially offset by

declines in Spain and Italy.

Feed availability and

higher input costs remain

key constraints to milk

production growth.

EU milk production for the 12

months to October declined

0.4% compared to the same

period the year prior, driven

by declines in Germany,

France and Spain and partially

offset by increases in Poland

and Austria.

US milk production

increased by 0.8% in

December, compared to the

same period the year prior.

This is the sixth consecutive

month of increases following

eight months of year‑on‑year

production declines.

Herd sizes continued to

grow and are supporting an

increase in production for the

foreseeable future.

Milk production for the

12 months to December

increased 0.2% compared to

the same period the year prior.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

To view a chart that

illustrates year‑on‑year

changes in production –

1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.

2 Excludes UK.

To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

Global Exports

New Zealand, Australia

and EU monthly exports

decline. US exports continue

to increase

Total New Zealand dairy

exports decreased 6.5%,

or 25,061 MT, in November

compared to the same

period the year prior.

The decrease was driven

by lower export volumes of

WMP to China but partially

offset by an increase in

SMP to Algeria, and butter

and cheese to China

and Australia.

Exports for the 12 months

to November were down by

5.5%, or 196,338 MT, on the

previous comparable period.

This was primarily driven

by decreases in WMP and

cheese and partially offset

by increases in AMF, butter

and SMP.

EU dairy exports

decreased 7.1%, or

40,036 MT, in October

compared to the same

period the year prior.

The decline in export

volumes continues to be

driven by lower fluid milk

products shipments to China

and cheese to Ukraine, Egypt

and Chile. The decrease was

partially offset by an increase

in infant formula to China.

Exports for the 12 months to

October were down 8.8%, or

640,217 MT, on the previous

comparable period, driven

by declines in fluid milk

products, SMP, cheese and

WMP and partially offset by

increases in infant formula,

cultured products and MPC.

US dairy exports

increased 7.1%, or 15.918  MT,

in November compared

to the same period the

year prior.

Stronger demand for butter

by Canada, WPC by China

and cheese by Mexico

was partially offset by

lower shipments of fluid

milk products.

Exports for the 12 months to

November were up 3.7%, or

100,850 MT, on the previous

comparable period, driven

by lactose, cheese and

butter, and partially offset by

declines in SMP.

Australia dairy exports

decreased 6.0%, or 4,448  MT,

in October compared to the

same period the year prior

as Australia milk production

remains weak.

Fluid milk products, cheese

and whey exports declined

year‑on‑year and were

partially offset by an increase

in SMP and other powders.

Exports for the 12 months to

October were up 9.0%, or

74,798 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was predominantly

driven by increases in fluid

milk products, SMP and

other powders.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

%%%

%

%

%

Change for November 2022

compared November 2021

Change for November 2022

compared to November 2021

Change for October 2022

compared to October 2021

Change for October 2022

compared to October 2021

Change for the 12 months

to November 2022

Change for the 12 months

to November 2022

Change for the 12 months

to October 2022

Change for the 12 months

to October 2022

7.16.0

6.5

9.0

7.1

3.78.85.5

%

%

To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

Global Imports

China, Middle East

& Africa and Asia

monthly imports decline.

Latin America imports

continue to grow

Latin America dairy

import volumes¹ increased

13.5%, or 23,998 MT, in

October compared to the

same period the year prior.

The increase was driven by

stronger demand for WMP

to Trinidad and Tobago and

Brazil, and SMP to Mexico.

Imports for the 12 months to

October were up 8.7% on the

previous comparable period

driven by higher volumes of

cheese, SMP, infant formula

and WMP.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 3.3%, or 12,639 MT,

in October compared to the

same period the year prior.

The decrease was driven by

lower demand for SMP to

Vietnam and Indonesia, fluid

milk products to Afghanistan

and infant formula to

Vietnam and partially offset

by an increase in demand for

WMP to Indonesia.

Imports for the 12 months

to October were up 0.5%, or

22,798 MT, on the previous

comparable period driven by

increases in WPC, cultured

products, SMP and butter.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 8.5%, or 35,558 MT,

in October compared to the

same period the year prior.

The decrease was driven by

lower volumes of fluid milk

products to Libya and Iraq,

WMP to Algeria, and cheese

to Iraq and Jordan.

Imports for the 12 months

to October were up 6.1%, or

300,407 MT, on the previous

comparable period driven

by increases in cheese, SMP,

butter and whey.

China dairy import

volumes decreased by 7.2%,

or 20,328 MT, in December

compared to the same period

the year prior.

Lockdown restrictions

continue to have an impact on

volumes, particularly fluid milk

products and infant formula.

This was partially offset by an

increase in demand for whey.

SMP from New Zealand and

WMP also increased and it

was the first month of year‑

on‑year increase following

nine consecutive months

of declines.

Imports for the 12 months to

December were down 16.9%,

or 698,156 MT, driven by fluid

milk products, WMP, whey,

and SMP.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%

%

%%

%

Change for October 2022

compared to October 2021

Change for December 2022

compared to December 2021

Change for October 2022

compared to October 2021

Change for October 2022

compared to October 2021

Change for the 12 months

to October 2022

Change for the 12 months

to October 2022

Change for the 12 months

to October 2022

7.23.313.5

0.56.1

%

Change for the 12 months

to December 2022

16.9

8.5

8.7

%

%

To view a table that shows
detailed milk collections in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%

%%

Season-to-date

1 June to 31 December

Season-to-date

1 June to 31 December

Season-to-date

1 June to 31 December

Season-to-date

1 June to 31 December

Change for December 2022

compared to December 2021

Change for December 2022

compared to December 2021

Change for December 2022

compared to December 2021

Change for December 2022

compared to December 2021

3.21.00.20.3

2.80.84.12.3

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY



















5

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Milk Collections

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

New Zealand Milk Collections

Fonterra's Australia

collections for December

were 11. 0 million kgMS, a 3.2%

decrease from December

last season due to record

Spring rainfall impacting milk

production.

Farm collections decreased

0.1 million kgMS and third‑party

collections decreased 0.3 million

kgMS year‑on‑year.

Season‑to‑date collections

reached 56.7 million kgMS, 2.8%

behind last season.

North Island milk collections

in December were 98.1 million

kgMS, 0.2% behind December

last season.

Season‑to‑date collections were

520.8 million kgMS, 4.1% behind

last season.

December showed glimpses of

a recovery in the North Island

with collections slightly below

previous season collections.

Continued wet weather

throughout the middle of the

month caused some disruption

on milk volumes however

pasture covers remain strong for

this time of the year.

South Island milk collections

in December were 75.9 million

kgMS, 1.0% higher than last

December.

Season‑to‑date collections were

334.0 million kgMS, 0.8% ahead

of last season.

South Island milk volumes

remain strong with favourable

warm weather and adequate

rain in the lower south

supporting milk production and

pasture growth.

Fonterra's New Zealand

collections for December were

174.0 million kgMS, 0.3% higher

than last December.

Season‑to‑date collections were

854.8 million kgMS, 2.3% behind

last season.

December weather was

mixed with intermittent rain

and warmer weather being

conducive to strong pasture

growing conditions.

Overall, disruptive rain

throughout the middle of

the month caused lower milk

production, with a recovery and

flattening towards the end of

the month.

%%%

Forecast Farmgate Milk Price for

the 2022/23 season

Forecast milk collections for the

2022/23 season

NZD

per

kgMS

%

8.50-

9.50

1, 4 8 0

million kgMS

Outlook for Fonterra

in New Zealand

%

%
%%%

%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year‑to‑date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

JAN MAR JUN OCT JAN

MAY NOV AUG



, 

, 

,



,

,

.

.

.

.

.

.

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity prices and New Zealand

dollar trend

Tentative signs emerged that indicate the rate of US inflation

has peaked and, together with a growing risk that the US

economy enters recession later in 2023, resulted in a re‑pricing

of US interest rate expectations which in turn led to a decline

in the USD. The NZD/USD exchange rate increased swiftly

before settling around 64 US cents.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

17 January 2023:

The next trading event will be held on 7 February 2023. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

0.2

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

3,412

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

30.5

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 5,337/MT

1.1

AMF

USD 4,871/MT

3.9

CHEDDAR

USD 2,853/MT

0.2

SMP

USD 3,218/MT

0.3

WMP

USD 4,449/MT

0.7

BUTTER

30,541

MT

LATEST AUCTION

334,533

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
Deloitte Top 200

Awards

The Deloitte Top 200

Awards were held in Tamaki

Makaurau (Auckland) in

December, and we’re pleased

to share that Fonterra won

the trophy for BusinessNZ’s

Most Improved Performance.

The Most Improved

Performance award

celebrates the Co‑op’s

outstanding change in

business performance

despite the ongoing

challenges resulting from

the pandemic, the overall

improvement over the

previous year and the impact

of this improvement on

the organisation.

The judging panel noted

positive improvements

across the business,

playing an important

role in the New Zealand

economy, saying:

“Fonterra sometimes faces

vocal opposition to their

industry, but they have

made moves to become

more sustainable, along

with trialling seaweed as

a supplemental feed for

dairy cows and working

with the Government

on reducing permanent

agricultural emissions.”

Fonterra’s Chief Executive

Officer, Miles Hurrell,

accepted the award on

behalf of the Co‑op at the

event saying:

This is testament to the

resilience and the focus of

our people. I am really proud

of what we’ve been able to

achieve together.

“While our operating

environment has

significantly changed, we

have shifted from reset

to growth and we are

delivering for our customers,

farmer shareholders

and New Zealand as a

whole by driving greater

value and meeting the

increasing demand for

sustainable dairying.”

Our Performance

Our Co-op
8

Net zero carbon

missions dairy farm

Fonterra and Nestlé

have announced a new

partnership designed to

help reduce New Zealand’s

on‑farm emissions, including

a New Zealand first – a drive

to develop a commercially

viable net zero carbon

emissions dairy farm.

Over the five‑year project

the farm, run with co‑partner

Dairy Trust Taranaki, will

examine all aspects of

farm operations to reduce

carbon with the aim of

cutting emissions by 30%

by mid‑2027, and a 10‑year

ambition of reaching net

zero carbon emissions.

The demonstration farm at

the centre of the project

is a 290‑hectare property

surrounding Fonterra’s

Whareroa site.

Dairy Trust Taranaki will

work with Fonterra and

industry partners to reduce

total emissions on the farm,

including methane, with

successful solutions also

being good for the farmer,

good for the cow and good

for the milk.

Lessons learned and

activities will be shared

through open days with

farmers, who can then

adopt the techniques

and technologies most

appropriate for their own

farms. The practices must

be economically viable

and practical for farmers

to adopt.

Fonterra CEO Miles Hurrell

says the collaboration will

help both Fonterra and

Nestlé accelerate progress

towards their greenhouse

gas emission goals.

“New Zealand already

provides some of the most

sustainable nutrition in the

world through its pasture‑

based dairy system. This new

partnership will look at ways

to further reduce emissions,

increasing the country’s low‑

emissions advantage over

the rest of the world.”

“Part of our strategy is to

lead in sustainability, and

we aspire to be net zero

by 2050. We know we

will make bigger gains,

for both the Co‑op and

country, by partnering

with others. Working with

partners such as Nestlé

is our best opportunity

to create innovative

solutions to local and global

industry challenges.

“As well as our own goals,

it’s important we help our

customers achieve theirs.

Nestlé has ambitious plans

and we look forward to

working together to discover

systems that could help our

farmer owners to continue

to build on the already good

base they have.”

Nestlé New Zealand CEO

Jennifer Chappell said the

Taranaki farm would build

on Nestlé’s work around the

world to help transform the

dairy industry.

“Dairy is our single biggest

ingredient, and our vision

is that the future for

dairy can be net zero,”

Ms Chappell said.

“To reduce our Scope 3

emissions, it’s critical we

work with dairy farmers

and their communities. For

this reason, we have over

100 pilot projects with

partners around the world,

including in New Zealand,

and 20 farms already striving

towards the ambition

of net zero emissions,”

Ms Chappell said.

“Working towards a net

zero farm means looking

at all aspects of the farm,

from cow nutrition to

sequestering carbon. We

will share what we learn on

the journey across the dairy

industry, with the goal of

ultimately mainstreaming

on‑farm practices that will

reduce the climate impact of

the dairy industry.”

“This will contribute to

Nestlé meeting our goal to

achieve net zero emissions

by 2050, including reducing

our emissions by 20% by

2025 and 50% by 2030,”

Ms Chappell said.

The partnership between

Fonterra and Nestlé

also encompasses the

launch of a greenhouse

gas farmer support pilot

programme. This multi‑year

project will see enrolled

Fonterra supplying farms

get additional support to

implement changes aimed

at lowering their on‑farm

emissions, which could

include solutions such as

improved management

of feed and pasture

and enhanced milk

production efficiency.

The opt‑in pilot will start

with around 50 farms and

then be scaled up over the

next three years.

Our Co-op
9

Fonterra partners

with Government and

industry to tackle on

farm emissions

Fonterra will contribute

up to $50 million over the

next four years in a public

private partnership that’s

working to find a solution to

biogenic methane.

Formally launched at

National Fieldays the Joint

Venture ( JV) includes the

Government and partners

from across the food and

fibre sector – ANZCO,

Fonterra, Rabobank,

Ravensdown, Silver Fern

Farms and Synlait.

Together the partners

will contribute around

$35 million a year until

2025 with the Government

matching this contribution,

resulting in at least

$170 million invested over

this time.

Speaking at the launch,

Fonterra CEO Miles Hurrell

said New Zealand’s low

carbon position means the

country has a good base to

build on, but we need to

do more.

“We must find a solution

to biogenic methane if

New Zealand is to maintain

its competitive advantage

on a global scale, and we all

know we can achieve more

by working together.

“Finding a solution means we

will have an opportunity to

continue to provide some of

the most emissions efficient

dairy in the world, along with

a solution that could benefit

the planet – that is a great

position for us to aim for.”

Fonterra already has

some work underway

with its research and

development centre having,

in partnership with others,

18 different projects and

30 trials underway.

Mr Hurrell says the JV

will enable the Co‑op to

accelerate some of these

projects where it makes

sense and look across the

industry to see what else we

can do.

We must find a solution

to biogenic methane if

New Zealand is to maintain

its competitive advantage

on a global scale, and we all

know we can achieve more

by working together.

By doing this we will provide

the tools our farmers need

to ensure the enduring

future of their businesses

and that we meet our net

zero ambitions.

“That’s what sustainability

is about, creating long term

resilience, and farmers across

the country are looking to us

to help with this.”

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL 

JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES













EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC 

NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s



















AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT 

MT

s
















AVERAGE

10


Supplementary Information

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year‑on‑year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU to October; Australia to November; and New Zealand and US to December.

NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to October; New Zealand and US to November.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa and Latin America to October; China to December.

SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR MAR JAN OCT FEB JUL AUG MAY SEP NOV DEC JUN

,

,

,

 ,

,

, 

,

,

,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT

QUANTITY SOLD  MT

11


Supplementary Information

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

DECEMBER

2022

DECEMBER


2021

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2022/23

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2021/22

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

174.0173.40.3%854.8874.6(2.3%)

North Island98.198.3(0.2%)520.8543.1(4.1%)

South Island75.975.11.0%334.0331.40.8%

Australia11. 011. 3(3.2%)56.758.3(2.8%)

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year‑to‑date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(17 JANUARY 2023)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2022)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

30,541334,533

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

1.8%2.6%

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

3,4123,725

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

(23.7%)(10.5%)

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

(0.2%)–

Fonterra GDT results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

12
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

Cultured Products

Fermented milks that are

prepared by using starter

cultures and controlled

fermentation including

yoghurt, yoghurt drinks, sour

cream, crème fraiche.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non‑Reference Products

All dairy products,

except for Reference

Products, produced

by the New Zealand

Ingredients business.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.


Glossary

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate.

WPI

Whey Protein Isolate.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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