Global Dairy Update January 2023
• On 8 December, Fonterra
provided a 2023 Q1
business update.
• Deloitte Top 200 Awards.
1
Global Dairy
UPDATE
• New Zealand monthly production volumes
in line with last season. Australia production
continues to decline. US and EU monthly
production increases.
• New Zealand, Australia and EU monthly
exports decline. US exports continue
to increase.
• China, Middle East & Africa and Asia monthly
imports decline. Latin America imports
continue to grow.
• Fonterra New Zealand milk collections for
December were 174.0 million kgMS, 0.3%
higher than December in the season prior.
• Fonterra Australia milk collections for
December were 11.0 million kgMS, 3.2% down
on December in the prior season.
• Net zero carbon emissions dairy farm.
• Fonterra partners with Government and industry to tackle on
farm emissions.
Key Dates
December to February 2023
Application Period to
Supply Fonterra
16 March 2023
FY23 Interim Results
Announcement
May 2023
FY23 Q3 Business Update
JANUARY 2023
For further details –
%
%
%%
%
%
%%
Change for December 2022
compared to December 2021
Change for December 2022
compared to December 2021
Change for November 2022
compared to November 2021
Change for October 2022
compared to October 2021
Change for the 12 months
to December 2022
Change for the 12 months
to December 2022
Change for the 12 months
to November 2022
Change for the 12 months
to October 2022
0.89.70.6
6.20.40.2
1.7
3.8
2
OUR MARKETS
Global Production
New Zealand monthly
production volumes in line
with last season. Australia
production continues to
decline. US and EU monthly
production increases
New Zealand¹ milk
production was down 0.6%
on a litres basis, (up 0.6% on
milk solids basis) in December
compared to the same period
the year prior.
Warm temperatures with
above normal rainfall have
helped pasture condition
but production in December
remains low, largely in line with
the weak production in the
previous December.
New Zealand milk production
for the 12 months to December
was down 3.8% on the
year prior.
Fonterra New Zealand
collections are reported
for December, see page 5
for details.
Australia milk production
decreased 9.7% in November
compared to the same period
the year prior.
A significantly wetter and
colder spring materially
impacted the availability
and quality of pasture, silage
and hay.
Summer conditions have been
more favourable and milk
production is beginning to
stabilise through December
and January.
Australia milk production for
the 12 months to November
was 6.2% lower than the
year prior.
Fonterra collections in Australia
are reported for December, see
page 5 for details.
EU milk production²
increased 1.7% in October
year‑on‑year, on the back of
weak production in October
last year.
The production increase was
driven primarily by Germany,
the Netherlands, Ireland and
France and partially offset by
declines in Spain and Italy.
Feed availability and
higher input costs remain
key constraints to milk
production growth.
EU milk production for the 12
months to October declined
0.4% compared to the same
period the year prior, driven
by declines in Germany,
France and Spain and partially
offset by increases in Poland
and Austria.
US milk production
increased by 0.8% in
December, compared to the
same period the year prior.
This is the sixth consecutive
month of increases following
eight months of year‑on‑year
production declines.
Herd sizes continued to
grow and are supporting an
increase in production for the
foreseeable future.
Milk production for the
12 months to December
increased 0.2% compared to
the same period the year prior.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year
changes in production –
1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.
2 Excludes UK.
To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year
changes in exports –
3
OUR MARKETS
Global Exports
New Zealand, Australia
and EU monthly exports
decline. US exports continue
to increase
Total New Zealand dairy
exports decreased 6.5%,
or 25,061 MT, in November
compared to the same
period the year prior.
The decrease was driven
by lower export volumes of
WMP to China but partially
offset by an increase in
SMP to Algeria, and butter
and cheese to China
and Australia.
Exports for the 12 months
to November were down by
5.5%, or 196,338 MT, on the
previous comparable period.
This was primarily driven
by decreases in WMP and
cheese and partially offset
by increases in AMF, butter
and SMP.
EU dairy exports
decreased 7.1%, or
40,036 MT, in October
compared to the same
period the year prior.
The decline in export
volumes continues to be
driven by lower fluid milk
products shipments to China
and cheese to Ukraine, Egypt
and Chile. The decrease was
partially offset by an increase
in infant formula to China.
Exports for the 12 months to
October were down 8.8%, or
640,217 MT, on the previous
comparable period, driven
by declines in fluid milk
products, SMP, cheese and
WMP and partially offset by
increases in infant formula,
cultured products and MPC.
US dairy exports
increased 7.1%, or 15.918 MT,
in November compared
to the same period the
year prior.
Stronger demand for butter
by Canada, WPC by China
and cheese by Mexico
was partially offset by
lower shipments of fluid
milk products.
Exports for the 12 months to
November were up 3.7%, or
100,850 MT, on the previous
comparable period, driven
by lactose, cheese and
butter, and partially offset by
declines in SMP.
Australia dairy exports
decreased 6.0%, or 4,448 MT,
in October compared to the
same period the year prior
as Australia milk production
remains weak.
Fluid milk products, cheese
and whey exports declined
year‑on‑year and were
partially offset by an increase
in SMP and other powders.
Exports for the 12 months to
October were up 9.0%, or
74,798 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was predominantly
driven by increases in fluid
milk products, SMP and
other powders.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
%%%
%
%
%
Change for November 2022
compared November 2021
Change for November 2022
compared to November 2021
Change for October 2022
compared to October 2021
Change for October 2022
compared to October 2021
Change for the 12 months
to November 2022
Change for the 12 months
to November 2022
Change for the 12 months
to October 2022
Change for the 12 months
to October 2022
7.16.0
6.5
9.0
7.1
3.78.85.5
%
%
To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year
changes in imports –
4
OUR MARKETS
Global Imports
China, Middle East
& Africa and Asia
monthly imports decline.
Latin America imports
continue to grow
Latin America dairy
import volumes¹ increased
13.5%, or 23,998 MT, in
October compared to the
same period the year prior.
The increase was driven by
stronger demand for WMP
to Trinidad and Tobago and
Brazil, and SMP to Mexico.
Imports for the 12 months to
October were up 8.7% on the
previous comparable period
driven by higher volumes of
cheese, SMP, infant formula
and WMP.
Asia (excluding China)
dairy import volumes¹
decreased 3.3%, or 12,639 MT,
in October compared to the
same period the year prior.
The decrease was driven by
lower demand for SMP to
Vietnam and Indonesia, fluid
milk products to Afghanistan
and infant formula to
Vietnam and partially offset
by an increase in demand for
WMP to Indonesia.
Imports for the 12 months
to October were up 0.5%, or
22,798 MT, on the previous
comparable period driven by
increases in WPC, cultured
products, SMP and butter.
Middle East and Africa
dairy import volumes¹
decreased 8.5%, or 35,558 MT,
in October compared to the
same period the year prior.
The decrease was driven by
lower volumes of fluid milk
products to Libya and Iraq,
WMP to Algeria, and cheese
to Iraq and Jordan.
Imports for the 12 months
to October were up 6.1%, or
300,407 MT, on the previous
comparable period driven
by increases in cheese, SMP,
butter and whey.
China dairy import
volumes decreased by 7.2%,
or 20,328 MT, in December
compared to the same period
the year prior.
Lockdown restrictions
continue to have an impact on
volumes, particularly fluid milk
products and infant formula.
This was partially offset by an
increase in demand for whey.
SMP from New Zealand and
WMP also increased and it
was the first month of year‑
on‑year increase following
nine consecutive months
of declines.
Imports for the 12 months to
December were down 16.9%,
or 698,156 MT, driven by fluid
milk products, WMP, whey,
and SMP.
LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA
1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.
%
%
%%
%
Change for October 2022
compared to October 2021
Change for December 2022
compared to December 2021
Change for October 2022
compared to October 2021
Change for October 2022
compared to October 2021
Change for the 12 months
to October 2022
Change for the 12 months
to October 2022
Change for the 12 months
to October 2022
7.23.313.5
0.56.1
%
Change for the 12 months
to December 2022
16.9
8.5
8.7
%
%
To view a table that shows
detailed milk collections in New
Zealand and Australia compared
to the previous season –
%
%%
Season-to-date
1 June to 31 December
Season-to-date
1 June to 31 December
Season-to-date
1 June to 31 December
Season-to-date
1 June to 31 December
Change for December 2022
compared to December 2021
Change for December 2022
compared to December 2021
Change for December 2022
compared to December 2021
Change for December 2022
compared to December 2021
3.21.00.20.3
2.80.84.12.3
VOLUME M LITRESDAY
JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
5
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Milk Collections
NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA
New Zealand Milk Collections
Fonterra's Australia
collections for December
were 11. 0 million kgMS, a 3.2%
decrease from December
last season due to record
Spring rainfall impacting milk
production.
Farm collections decreased
0.1 million kgMS and third‑party
collections decreased 0.3 million
kgMS year‑on‑year.
Season‑to‑date collections
reached 56.7 million kgMS, 2.8%
behind last season.
North Island milk collections
in December were 98.1 million
kgMS, 0.2% behind December
last season.
Season‑to‑date collections were
520.8 million kgMS, 4.1% behind
last season.
December showed glimpses of
a recovery in the North Island
with collections slightly below
previous season collections.
Continued wet weather
throughout the middle of the
month caused some disruption
on milk volumes however
pasture covers remain strong for
this time of the year.
South Island milk collections
in December were 75.9 million
kgMS, 1.0% higher than last
December.
Season‑to‑date collections were
334.0 million kgMS, 0.8% ahead
of last season.
South Island milk volumes
remain strong with favourable
warm weather and adequate
rain in the lower south
supporting milk production and
pasture growth.
Fonterra's New Zealand
collections for December were
174.0 million kgMS, 0.3% higher
than last December.
Season‑to‑date collections were
854.8 million kgMS, 2.3% behind
last season.
December weather was
mixed with intermittent rain
and warmer weather being
conducive to strong pasture
growing conditions.
Overall, disruptive rain
throughout the middle of
the month caused lower milk
production, with a recovery and
flattening towards the end of
the month.
%%%
Forecast Farmgate Milk Price for
the 2022/23 season
Forecast milk collections for the
2022/23 season
NZD
per
kgMS
%
8.50-
9.50
1, 4 8 0
million kgMS
Outlook for Fonterra
in New Zealand
%
%
%%%
%
To view more information,
including a snapshot of the
rolling year‑to‑date results –
%
6
GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE
JAN
MAR
JUN
OCT
JAN
MAY
NOV
AUG
,
,
,
,
,
.
.
.
.
.
.
PRICE INDEX
NZD USD
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results
Fonterra GDT sales
by destination:
Dairy commodity prices and New Zealand
dollar trend
Tentative signs emerged that indicate the rate of US inflation
has peaked and, together with a growing risk that the US
economy enters recession later in 2023, resulted in a re‑pricing
of US interest rate expectations which in turn led to a decline
in the USD. The NZD/USD exchange rate increased swiftly
before settling around 64 US cents.
Fonterra GDT results at
last trading event
17 January 2023:
The next trading event will be held on 7 February 2023. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.
Change in Fonterra’s
weighted average product
price from previous event
0.2
Fonterra’s weighted
average product price
(USD/MT)
3,412
USD
Fonterra product quantity
sold on GDT
000’ MT
30.5
NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)
SOUTH EAST ASIA
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
OTHER
USD 5,337/MT
1.1
AMF
USD 4,871/MT
3.9
CHEDDAR
USD 2,853/MT
0.2
SMP
USD 3,218/MT
0.3
WMP
USD 4,449/MT
0.7
BUTTER
30,541
MT
LATEST AUCTION
334,533
MT
FINANCIAL
YEAR‑TO‑DATE
7
Deloitte Top 200
Awards
The Deloitte Top 200
Awards were held in Tamaki
Makaurau (Auckland) in
December, and we’re pleased
to share that Fonterra won
the trophy for BusinessNZ’s
Most Improved Performance.
The Most Improved
Performance award
celebrates the Co‑op’s
outstanding change in
business performance
despite the ongoing
challenges resulting from
the pandemic, the overall
improvement over the
previous year and the impact
of this improvement on
the organisation.
The judging panel noted
positive improvements
across the business,
playing an important
role in the New Zealand
economy, saying:
“Fonterra sometimes faces
vocal opposition to their
industry, but they have
made moves to become
more sustainable, along
with trialling seaweed as
a supplemental feed for
dairy cows and working
with the Government
on reducing permanent
agricultural emissions.”
Fonterra’s Chief Executive
Officer, Miles Hurrell,
accepted the award on
behalf of the Co‑op at the
event saying:
This is testament to the
resilience and the focus of
our people. I am really proud
of what we’ve been able to
achieve together.
“While our operating
environment has
significantly changed, we
have shifted from reset
to growth and we are
delivering for our customers,
farmer shareholders
and New Zealand as a
whole by driving greater
value and meeting the
increasing demand for
sustainable dairying.”
Our Performance
Our Co-op
8
Net zero carbon
missions dairy farm
Fonterra and Nestlé
have announced a new
partnership designed to
help reduce New Zealand’s
on‑farm emissions, including
a New Zealand first – a drive
to develop a commercially
viable net zero carbon
emissions dairy farm.
Over the five‑year project
the farm, run with co‑partner
Dairy Trust Taranaki, will
examine all aspects of
farm operations to reduce
carbon with the aim of
cutting emissions by 30%
by mid‑2027, and a 10‑year
ambition of reaching net
zero carbon emissions.
The demonstration farm at
the centre of the project
is a 290‑hectare property
surrounding Fonterra’s
Whareroa site.
Dairy Trust Taranaki will
work with Fonterra and
industry partners to reduce
total emissions on the farm,
including methane, with
successful solutions also
being good for the farmer,
good for the cow and good
for the milk.
Lessons learned and
activities will be shared
through open days with
farmers, who can then
adopt the techniques
and technologies most
appropriate for their own
farms. The practices must
be economically viable
and practical for farmers
to adopt.
Fonterra CEO Miles Hurrell
says the collaboration will
help both Fonterra and
Nestlé accelerate progress
towards their greenhouse
gas emission goals.
“New Zealand already
provides some of the most
sustainable nutrition in the
world through its pasture‑
based dairy system. This new
partnership will look at ways
to further reduce emissions,
increasing the country’s low‑
emissions advantage over
the rest of the world.”
“Part of our strategy is to
lead in sustainability, and
we aspire to be net zero
by 2050. We know we
will make bigger gains,
for both the Co‑op and
country, by partnering
with others. Working with
partners such as Nestlé
is our best opportunity
to create innovative
solutions to local and global
industry challenges.
“As well as our own goals,
it’s important we help our
customers achieve theirs.
Nestlé has ambitious plans
and we look forward to
working together to discover
systems that could help our
farmer owners to continue
to build on the already good
base they have.”
Nestlé New Zealand CEO
Jennifer Chappell said the
Taranaki farm would build
on Nestlé’s work around the
world to help transform the
dairy industry.
“Dairy is our single biggest
ingredient, and our vision
is that the future for
dairy can be net zero,”
Ms Chappell said.
“To reduce our Scope 3
emissions, it’s critical we
work with dairy farmers
and their communities. For
this reason, we have over
100 pilot projects with
partners around the world,
including in New Zealand,
and 20 farms already striving
towards the ambition
of net zero emissions,”
Ms Chappell said.
“Working towards a net
zero farm means looking
at all aspects of the farm,
from cow nutrition to
sequestering carbon. We
will share what we learn on
the journey across the dairy
industry, with the goal of
ultimately mainstreaming
on‑farm practices that will
reduce the climate impact of
the dairy industry.”
“This will contribute to
Nestlé meeting our goal to
achieve net zero emissions
by 2050, including reducing
our emissions by 20% by
2025 and 50% by 2030,”
Ms Chappell said.
The partnership between
Fonterra and Nestlé
also encompasses the
launch of a greenhouse
gas farmer support pilot
programme. This multi‑year
project will see enrolled
Fonterra supplying farms
get additional support to
implement changes aimed
at lowering their on‑farm
emissions, which could
include solutions such as
improved management
of feed and pasture
and enhanced milk
production efficiency.
The opt‑in pilot will start
with around 50 farms and
then be scaled up over the
next three years.
Our Co-op
9
Fonterra partners
with Government and
industry to tackle on
farm emissions
Fonterra will contribute
up to $50 million over the
next four years in a public
private partnership that’s
working to find a solution to
biogenic methane.
Formally launched at
National Fieldays the Joint
Venture ( JV) includes the
Government and partners
from across the food and
fibre sector – ANZCO,
Fonterra, Rabobank,
Ravensdown, Silver Fern
Farms and Synlait.
Together the partners
will contribute around
$35 million a year until
2025 with the Government
matching this contribution,
resulting in at least
$170 million invested over
this time.
Speaking at the launch,
Fonterra CEO Miles Hurrell
said New Zealand’s low
carbon position means the
country has a good base to
build on, but we need to
do more.
“We must find a solution
to biogenic methane if
New Zealand is to maintain
its competitive advantage
on a global scale, and we all
know we can achieve more
by working together.
“Finding a solution means we
will have an opportunity to
continue to provide some of
the most emissions efficient
dairy in the world, along with
a solution that could benefit
the planet – that is a great
position for us to aim for.”
Fonterra already has
some work underway
with its research and
development centre having,
in partnership with others,
18 different projects and
30 trials underway.
Mr Hurrell says the JV
will enable the Co‑op to
accelerate some of these
projects where it makes
sense and look across the
industry to see what else we
can do.
We must find a solution
to biogenic methane if
New Zealand is to maintain
its competitive advantage
on a global scale, and we all
know we can achieve more
by working together.
By doing this we will provide
the tools our farmers need
to ensure the enduring
future of their businesses
and that we meet our net
zero ambitions.
“That’s what sustainability
is about, creating long term
resilience, and farmers across
the country are looking to us
to help with this.”
PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
DEC JUL
JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR
LIQUID MILK M LITRES
EXPORTS
AUSTRALIA
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC
NOV OCT SEP MAY
MT s
AVERAGE
IMPORTS
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA
ASIACHINA
SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT
MT
s
AVERAGE
10
Supplementary Information
Global Dairy Market
The charts on the right
illustrate the year‑on‑year
changes in imports, exports
and production for a range of
countries that are important
players in global dairy trade.
The absolute size of
the bars represents the
change in imports, exports
or production, relative
to the same period the
previous year.
Averages are shown where
data is complete for the
regions presented.
NOTE: Data for EU to October; Australia to November; and New Zealand and US to December.
NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to October; New Zealand and US to November.
NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa and Latin America to October; China to December.
SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR MAR JAN OCT FEB JUL AUG MAY SEP NOV DEC JUN
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD MT
11
Supplementary Information
Fonterra milk
production
The table on the right
shows Fonterra milk solids
collected in New Zealand
and Australia compared
to the previous season.
MILK COLLECTION
(MILLION KGMS)
DECEMBER
2022
DECEMBER
2021
MONTHLY
CHANGE
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2022/23
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2021/22
SEASON-
TO-DATE
CHANGE
Total Fonterra
New Zealand
174.0173.40.3%854.8874.6(2.3%)
North Island98.198.3(0.2%)520.8543.1(4.1%)
South Island75.975.11.0%334.0331.40.8%
Australia11. 011. 3(3.2%)56.758.3(2.8%)
Fonterra GDT results
This table provides more
information on the latest
results, including a snapshot
of the year‑to‑date results.
LAST TRADING EVENT
(17 JANUARY 2023)
YEAR-TO-DATE
(FROM 1 AUGUST 2022)
Quantity Sold on GDT
(Winning MT)
30,541334,533
Change in Quantity Sold on GDT
over same period last year
1.8%2.6%
Weighted Average Product Price
(USD/MT)
3,4123,725
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price over same period
last year
(23.7%)(10.5%)
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price from previous event
(0.2%)–
Fonterra GDT results
This chart shows Fonterra
GDT prices and volumes over
the past 12 months.
12
AMF
Anhydrous Milk Fat.
BMP
Butter Milk Powder.
Cultured Products
Fermented milks that are
prepared by using starter
cultures and controlled
fermentation including
yoghurt, yoghurt drinks, sour
cream, crème fraiche.
DIRA
Dairy Industry Restructuring
Act 2001 (New Zealand).
Farmgate Milk Price
The price for milk supplied in
New Zealand to Fonterra by
farmer shareholders.
Fluid Products
The Fonterra grouping
of fluid milk products
(skim milk, whole milk
and cream – pasteurised
or UHT processed),
concentrated milk products
(evaporated milk and
sweetened condensed milk)
and yoghurt.
GDT
Global Dairy Trade, the
online provider of the twice
monthly global auctions of
dairy ingredients.
kgMS
Kilogram of milk solids, the
measure of the amount of
fat and protein in the milk
supplied to Fonterra.
MPC
Milk Protein Concentrate.
Non‑Reference Products
All dairy products,
except for Reference
Products, produced
by the New Zealand
Ingredients business.
Reference Products
The dairy products used
in the calculation of the
Farmgate Milk Price, which
are currently WMP, SMP,
BMP, butter and AMF.
Glossary
Season
New Zealand: A period
of 12 months to 31 May
in each year.
Australia: A period of
12 months to 30 June
in each year.
SMP
Skim Milk Powder.
WMP
Whole Milk Powder.
WPC
Whey Protein Concentrate.
WPI
Whey Protein Isolate.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time
Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.
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