Global Dairy Update March 2023
• On 16 March, Fonterra
announced its
2023 Interim Results.
• Bringing the New Zealand flavour to the world’s largest food
and beverage event.
1
Global Dairy
UPDATE
• New Zealand February production increases
but remains down on a 12-month basis. US,
and EU monthly production increases while
Australia production continues to decline.
• US and New Zealand monthly exports up.
Australia and EU exports decline.
• Latin America imports increase. China,
Asia and Latin America monthly
imports decline.
• Fonterra New Zealand milk collections for
February were 130.3 million kgMS, 2.7% higher
than February in the prior season. At the end
of February, collections were down 1.8% on a
12-month basis.
• Fonterra Australia milk collections for
February were 7.7 million kgMS, 1.5% up on
February in the prior season.
• Award winning farming for a sustainable future.
Key Dates
May 2023
FY23 Q3 Business Update
1 June 2023
Start of the 2023/24 Season
31 July 2023
End of FY23 Financial Year
MARCH 2023
For further details –
%
%
%%
%
%
%%
Change for February 2023
compared to February 2022
Change for February 2023
compared to February 2022
Change for January 2023
compared to January 2022
Change for January 2023
compared to January 2022
Change for the 12 months
to February 2023
Change for the 12 months
to February 2023
Change for the 12 months
to January 2023
Change for the 12 months
to January 2023
0.83.62.3
6.60.10.5
1.0
2.1
2
OUR MARKETS
Global Production
New Zealand February
production increases but
remains down annually. US
and EU monthly production
increases, while Australia
continues to decline
New Zealand¹ milk
production was up 2.3% on
a litres basis, (also up 2.3% on
milk solids basis) in February
compared to the same period
the year prior.
Despite the disruption of
Cyclone Gabrielle, wet and
warm weather across the
North Island had a favourable
impact on pasture conditions.
South Island production
continues to be constrained by
dry conditions.
New Zealand milk production
for the 12 months to February
was down 2.1% on the previous
comparable period.
Fonterra New Zealand
collections are reported for
February, see page 5 for details.
Australia milk production
decreased 3.6% in January
compared to the same period
the year prior.
Despite more favourable
summer conditions, a
significantly wetter than
average spring continues to
impact production through
reduced availability of
pasture and lower quality
supplementary feed.
Australia milk production for
the 12 months to January was
6.6% lower on the previous
comparable period.
Fonterra collections in Australia
are reported for February, see
page 5 for details.
EU milk production²
increased 1.0% in January
year-on-year.
The production increase was
driven primarily by Germany,
Netherlands and Belgium, and
partially offset by declines in
Italy, France and Spain.
EU milk production for the
12 months to January was
up 0.1% on the previous
comparable period.
Increases in Poland,
Netherlands, Germany and
Belgium were largely offset
by declines in Italy, Spain
and France.
US milk production
increased by 0.8% in February
compared to the same period
the year prior.
Production continues the
recent trend of year-on-year
growth, supported by a herd
size which is tracking above
prior year. However, recent
challenging weather conditions
in California and on-farm cost
pressures are expected to
curb herd size growth in the
coming months.
Milk production for the
12 months to February
increased 0.5% on the previous
comparable period.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in production –
1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.
2 Excludes UK.
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in exports –
3
OUR MARKETS
Global Exports
US and New Zealand
monthly exports up.
Australia and EU monthly
exports decline
Total New Zealand dairy
exports increased 3.5%,
or 9,395 MT, in February
compared to the same
period the year prior.
The increase was driven by
an increase in SMP export
volumes to China and
Southeast Asia. This was
largely offset by a decline
in WMP exports to China
and Indonesia.
Exports for the 12 months
to February were down by
3.3%, or 114,224 MT, on the
previous comparable period.
This was primarily driven
by decreases in WMP and
cheese and partially offset by
increases in SMP.
EU dairy exports
decreased 1.8%, or 8,849 MT,
in January compared to the
same period the year prior.
The decline in exports
volumes continues to be
driven by lower fluid milk
products shipments to China
and WMP to Oman and
China. The decrease was
partially offset by an increase
in infant formula and SMP
exports to China.
Exports for the 12 months to
January were down 8.9%, or
640,331 MT, on the previous
comparable period, driven
by declines in fluid milk
products, SMP, cheese and
WMP and partially offset by
increases in infant formula
and cultured products.
US dairy exports
increased 15.8% or 29,632 MT
in January compared to
the same period the year
prior. It is the strongest
year-on-year increase since
November 2021.
Stronger demand was
observed across most
products categories, in
particular, for lactose to
China, SMP to Mexico
and Thailand and cheese
to Mexico.
Exports for the 12 months
to January were up 5.9% or
162,601 MT on the previous
comparable period, driven
by lactose, cheese, WPC and
whey, and partially offset by
declines in SMP.
Australia dairy exports
decreased 39.0%, or
33,318 MT, in January
compared to the same
period the year prior, which
included very strong export
volumes to China.
Lower volumes of fluid milk
products to China are driving
this decrease. Cheese and
SMP exports to China have
also declined year on year.
Exports for the 12 months to
January were down 13.2%, or
120,655 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was predominantly
driven by decreases in
fluid milk products, WMP
and cheese.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
%%%
%
%
%
Change for February 2023
compared February 2022
Change for January 2023
compared to January 2022
Change for January 2023
compared to January2022
Change for January 2023
compared to January2022
Change for the 12 months
to January 2023
Change for the 12 months
to January 2023
Change for the 12 months
to February 2023
Change for the 12 months
to January 2023
15.839.0
3.5
1.8
5.913.28.93.3
%
%
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in imports –
4
OUR MARKETS
Global Imports
Latin America imports
increase. China, Asia
and Middle East & Africa
monthly imports decline
Latin America dairy
import volumes¹ increased
8.8%, or 14,871 MT, in January
compared to the same period
the year prior.
The increase was driven by
higher demand for WMP
by Brazil, SMP and cheese
by Mexico, and partially
offset by lower demand of
fluid milk products by the
Dominican Republic.
Imports for the 12 months
to January were up 9.8%, or
204,192 MT on the previous
comparable period, driven by
higher volumes of WMP, SMP,
cheese and infant formula.
Asia (excluding China)
dairy import volumes¹
decreased 7.9%, or 33,645 MT,
in January compared to the
same period the year prior.
The decrease was driven
by lower demand for whey
by Indonesia and Vietnam,
and SMP by the Philippines
and Malaysia.
Imports for the 12 months to
January were down 2.6%, or
131,997 MT, on the previous
comparable period, driven
by a decrease in demand for
fluid milk products, whey
and cheese.
Middle East and
Africa dairy import
volumes¹ decreased 4.4%,
or 21,446 MT, in January
compared to the same period
the year prior.
The decrease was driven by
lower volumes of fluid milk
products and cheese to Iraq,
and partially offset by higher
demand for SMP to Algeria.
Imports for the 12 months
to January were up 2.8%, or
144,022 MT, on the previous
comparable period, driven by
increases in SMP, cheese and
infant formula, and partially
offset by a decline in fluid
milk products.
China dairy import
volumes decreased by 6.8%,
or 18,520 MT, in February
compared to the same period
the year prior.
The pace of China’s reopening,
post-lockdown restrictions,
as well as high domestic
production continue to have
an impact on import volumes,
particularly fluid milk products
and WMP.
This was partially offset by
an increase in demand for
whey. Imports of SMP from
New Zealand also increased.
Imports for the 12 months to
February were down 22.0%,
on the previous comparable
period or 902,623 MT, driven
by WMP, fluid milk products
and SMP.
LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA
1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.
%
%
%%
%
Change for January 2023
compared to January 2022
Change for February 2023
compared to February 2022
Change for January 2023
compared to January 2022
Change for January 2023
compared to January 2022
Change for the 12 months
to January 2023
Change for the 12 months
to January 2023
Change for the 12 months
to January 2023
6.87.98.8
2.62.8
%
Change for the 12 months
to February 2023
22.0
4.4
9.8
%
%
To view a table that shows
detailed milk collections in New
Zealand and Australia compared
to the previous season –
%
%%
Season-to-date
1 July to 28 February
Season-to-date
1 June to 28 February
Season-to-date
1 June to 28 February
Season-to-date
1 June to 28 February
Change for February 2023
compared to February 2022
Change for February 2023
compared to February 2022
Change for February 2023
compared to February 2022
Change for February 2023
compared to February 2022
1.51.56.42.7
1.80.32.01.1
VOLUME M LITRESDAY
JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
5
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Milk Collections
NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA
New Zealand Milk Collections
Fonterra's Australia
collections for February
were 7.7 million kgMS, a
1.5% increase from February
last season.
Farm collections increased
0.1 million kgMS and
third party collections were
stable year on year.
Season-to-date collections
reached 73.9 million kgMS,
1.8% behind last season.
North Island milk
collections in February
were 71. 7 million kgMS,
6.4% ahead of February
last season.
Season-to-date collections
were 683.1 million kgMS,
2.0% behind last season.
February weather was
very wet for the far north
and eastern regions of
North Island. For the central
North Island, the wet/warm
weather also brought strong
pasture growing conditions.
Continued wet weather
throughout the month
caused some disruption
on milk volumes, however,
farms are well set up for
late summer/autumn with
strong pasture covers and
animal condition.
South Island milk
collections in February were
58.7 million kgMS, 1.5%
behind last February.
Season-to-date collections
were 463.5 million kgMS,
0.3% ahead of last season.
More dry and warm weather
in the South Island caused
lower milk production
throughout the month.
There is a potential drought
risk for Southland and
Canterbury regions over
the late summer/early
Autumn period.
Fonterra's New Zealand
collections for February
were 130.3 million
kgMS, 2.7% higher than
last February.
Season-to-date collections
were 1,146.6 million kgMS,
1.1% behind last season.
February saw Cyclone
Gabrielle disrupt milk
volumes that were beginning
to recover, but ended
with strong North Island
production. This was offset
by slightly unfavourable
South Island milk supply.
%%%
%
%
The inclusion of off-GDT sales
contributed approximately
five cents per kgMS to the
Milk Price for the season
to 31 January 2023.
%
%%%
%
To view more information,
including a snapshot of the
rolling year-to-date results –
%
6
GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE
MAR
MAY
AUG
DEC
MAR
JUN
JAN
OCT
,
,
,
,
,
.
.
.
.
.
.
PRICE INDEX
NZD USD
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results
Fonterra GDT sales
by destination:
Dairy commodity prices and New Zealand
dollar trend
Financial markets were rocked by emerging stresses in both
the US and European banking sectors which caused significant
declines in interest rates on both sides of the Atlantic. This,
together with increased volatility in equity markets, resulted in
reduced risk appetite and consequently increased ‘safe-haven’
demand for US dollars. Additionally, weaker than expected
New Zealand economic data led to the NZD declining to below
62 US cents before recovering later in March.
Fonterra GDT results at
last trading event
21 March 2023:
The next trading event will be held on 4 April 2023. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.
Change in Fonterra’s
weighted average product
price from previous event
2.3
Fonterra’s weighted
average product price
(USD/MT)
3,395
USD
Fonterra product quantity
sold on GDT
000’ MT
25.1
NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)
SOUTH EAST ASIA
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
OTHER
USD 4,052/MT
10.1
CHEDDAR
USD 3,228/MT
1.5
WMP
USD 2,653/MT
3.5
SMP
USD 4,748/MT
3.1
BUTTER
USD 5,150/MT
3.6
AMF
25,099
MT
LATEST AUCTION
443,245
MT
FINANCIAL
YEAR‑TO‑DATE
7
At the end of February, Fonterra showed up at Gulfood in Dubai, the world’s largest food and
beverage event – to showcase its fantastic range of products to the world.
This year, the Co-op showcased the potential of its proteins in a range of applications – like
spoonable and drinkable yoghurt – and mouth-watering Anchor™ Food Professionals products,
like cream cheese and whipping cream, brought to life by expert pastry chef, Ronny Keyrouz
(pictured below).
Fonterra’s ingredients team
(NZMP™) shared how they
can creatively help customers
fortify different products
with extra protein, as well
as making sure customers
knew about the many extra
services on offer to make
their life easier.
Adam Lyall, Fonterra Regional Sales Manager for MEA, noticed
that health and wellness and protein fortification continues to
be top of mind for consumers – and Fonterra’s ingredients play
right into that:
“A lot of customers were asking how they can add more
protein into their dairy products, whether it's yogurt, cheese
or consumer powder, because they see that with the rise of
the health-conscious consumer, high protein products are in
demand as a way to maximise nutritional benefits” said Adam.
The Co-op’s foodservice team (Anchor™ Food Professionals)
enabled customers to see in person just how versatile its
ingredients are, by putting chef Ronny Keyrouz in the spotlight.
Ronny made brownies, cheesecakes, cookies and pasta – all
using Anchor cream, cream cheese and butter sheets.
But perhaps the most unique thing about the stand was
how the Co-op showed up when it came to illustrating
its sustainability credentials - which showed what makes
New Zealand grass-fed dairy different.
Fonterra Sustainability Solutions Manager Jenna Grieve, and Trade Strategy Manager for Europe
and MEA Mark Casey, took the stage to participate in discussions revolving around sustainability.
Jenna shared a presentation on how the Co-op is working to make the dairy industry less carbon
intensive, and shared many of the game-changing methane innovations it is testing, and Mark
participated in a panel discussing the future of animal-based food.
Bringing the
New Zealand flavour to
the world’s largest food
and beverage event
Pictured left (left to right):
Erika Galvez, Category Marketing
Manager, Helena Jannetta,
Marketing Director for MEA,
and Jenna Grieve, Sustainability
Solutions Manager
Our Performance
Award-winning farming
for a sustainable future
Martin Bennett has been a
dairy farmer for nearly half
a century so he’s seen his
fair share of change in the
industry over that time.
“I’ve been a dairy farmer
since I left school. I was
always going to be a dairy
farmer. It was something that
I decided when I was very
young, all of four years old.”
But Martin isn’t your typical
run of the mill dairy farmer.
Described as a “national
champion for social and
environmental sustainability
on farms”, Martin was
recognised in the New Year
Honours list, becoming an
Officer of the New Zealand
Order of Merit for services
to the environment and
the community.
That commitment started
when Martin and his wife
Judith were sharemilking
and accelerated when they
bought their own farm near
Putaruru, where they milk
400 cows.
“When we first bought the
farm, we had a beautiful
1.6-kilometre stream but
none of it was fenced. That
was the first thing we did,
then through some local
contacts we got some plants
and away we went.”
Martin became a founding
member of the Dairy
Environment Leaders group,
which is funded by DairyNZ
and initially organised by the
NZ Farm Environment Trust,
and he was its Chair between
2009 and 2016.
“I knew I wasn’t the only
guy paddling this canoe
and we had annual forums
where we would invite a
group of 50 farmers or so
to discuss ways they could
farm more sustainably
and drive sustainable
environmental change in
their own communities.
“Through the forums we
created a small army of
like-minded farmers to get
things going. They certainly
had positive impacts on their
local catchments especially.
But it’s fair to say that the
Dairy Environment Leaders
group was not that popular
at first.
“That was a time of extreme
growth. Farmers were all
about growing the industry
and their businesses.
Environmental sustainability
wasn’t really on the radar
at all and we got some
pushback, but we persevered.
“We have an obligation to do
the right thing and be good
stewards of the land by doing
what we can to minimise
our footprint. Most farmers
are on board with that and
there’s a new generation of
dairy farmers who are really
running with it and doing a
fantastic job.”
Martin says the dairy
industry still has a lot of work
to do with tough regulations
coming down the line.
“Things like nutrient
management and emissions
reductions will take
sustainability to the next
level. It will involve a lot of
work and change but the
best thing we as farmers can
do is to work with our supply
companies, not against them.
Regardless of what happens
in the industry, Fonterra
is always going to be the
benchmark and they have
a big role to play in helping
farmers to navigate and
understand what needs to
happen to ensure the future
success of our industry.”
Martin says he sees
his honour as an
acknowledgement for all
the hard work thousands
of farmers have put in to
improve life on the land.
“We have an industry that is
a far better operation than it
used to be. There are some
pretty good people out
there, and to be singled out
as one of them is very nice.
I’m very grateful for that but
sustainability is a moving
target and always has been,
so let’s get on and chase it.”
Our Co-op
8
PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
DEC JUL
JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR
LIQUID MILK M LITRES
EXPORTS
AUSTRALIA
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY
MT s
AVERAGE
IMPORTS
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA
ASIACHINA
SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT
MT s
AVERAGE
9
Supplementary Information
Global Dairy Market
The charts on the right
illustrate the year-on-year
changes in imports, exports
and production for a range of
countries that are important
players in global dairy trade.
The absolute size of
the bars represents the
change in imports, exports
or production, relative
to the same period the
previous year.
Averages are shown where
data is complete for the
regions presented.
NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to January; New Zealand and US to February.
NOTE: Data for EU, US and Australia to January; and New Zealand to February.
NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa, Latin America to January; and China to February.
SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR MAR JAN OCT FEB JUL AUG MAY SEP NOV DEC JUN
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD MT
10
Supplementary Information
Fonterra milk
production
The table on the right
shows Fonterra milk solids
collected in New Zealand
and Australia compared
to the previous season.
MILK COLLECTION
(MILLION KGMS)
FEBRUARY
2023
FEBRUARY
2022
MONTHLY
CHANGE
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2022/23
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2021/22
SEASON-
TO-DATE
CHANGE
Total Fonterra
New Zealand
130.3126.92.7%1,146.61,159.6(1.1%)
North Island71. 767.36.4%683.1697.3(2.0%)
South Island58.759.6(1.5%)463.5462.30.3%
Australia7.77.61.5%73.975.2(1.8%)
Fonterra GDT results
This table provides more
information on the latest
results, including a snapshot
of the year-to-date results.
LAST TRADING EVENT
(21 MARCH 2023)
YEAR-TO-DATE
(FROM 1 AUGUST 2022)
Quantity Sold on GDT
(Winning MT)
25,099443,245
Change in Quantity Sold on GDT
over same period last year
14.7%4.2%
Weighted Average Product Price
(USD/MT)
3,3953,662
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price over same period
last year
(33.4%)(15. 7%)
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price from previous event
(2.3%)–
Fonterra GDT results
This chart shows Fonterra
GDT prices and volumes over
the past 12 months.
11
AMF
Anhydrous Milk Fat.
BMP
Butter Milk Powder.
Cultured Products
Fermented milks that are
prepared by using starter
cultures and controlled
fermentation including
yoghurt, yoghurt drinks, sour
cream, crème fraiche.
DIRA
Dairy Industry Restructuring
Act 2001 (New Zealand).
Farmgate Milk Price
The price for milk supplied in
New Zealand to Fonterra by
farmer shareholders.
Fluid Products
The Fonterra grouping
of fluid milk products
(skim milk, whole milk
and cream – pasteurised
or UHT processed),
concentrated milk products
(evaporated milk and
sweetened condensed milk)
and yoghurt.
GDT
Global Dairy Trade, the
online provider of the twice
monthly global auctions of
dairy ingredients.
kgMS
Kilogram of milk solids, the
measure of the amount of
fat and protein in the milk
supplied to Fonterra.
MEA
Middle East Africa.
MPC
Milk Protein Concentrate.
Non-Reference Products
All dairy products,
except for Reference
Products, produced
by the New Zealand
Ingredients business.
NZMP
New Zealand Milk Products.
Reference Products
The dairy products used
in the calculation of the
Farmgate Milk Price, which
are currently WMP, SMP,
BMP, butter and AMF.
Glossary
Season
New Zealand: A period
of 12 months to 31 May
in each year.
Australia: A period of
12 months to 30 June
in each year.
SMP
Skim Milk Powder.
WMP
Whole Milk Powder.
WPC
Whey Protein Concentrate.
WPI
Whey Protein Isolate.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time
Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.
- FSF — Fonterra Shareholders' Fund: Global Dairy Update March 20232023-03-30
“• On 16 March, Fonterra announced its 2023 Interim Results. • Bringing the New Zealand flavour to the world’s largest food and beverage event. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • New Zealand February production increases but remains down on a 12-month basis. US, and EU monthly…”
- FSF — Fonterra Shareholders' Fund: Global Dairy Update May 20232023-05-31
“• Third quarter business update. • Fonterra taking further steps to decarbonise and lift efficiency. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • New Zealand, EU and US monthly production increases, Australia production continues to decline. New Zealand and Australia down on a 12 month ba…”
- FSF — Fonterra Shareholders' Fund: Global Dairy Update January 20232023-01-30
“• On 8 December, Fonterra provided a 2023 Q1 business update. • Deloitte Top 200 Awards. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • New Zealand monthly production volumes in line with last season. Australia production continues to decline. US and EU monthly production increases. • New…”