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Global Dairy Update March 2023

Operational Update30 March 2023FSFConsumer Staples

• On 16 March, Fonterra
announced its

2023 Interim Results.

• Bringing the New Zealand flavour to the world’s largest food

and beverage event.

1

Global Dairy

UPDATE

• New Zealand February production increases

but remains down on a 12-month basis. US,

and EU monthly production increases while

Australia production continues to decline.

• US and New Zealand monthly exports up.

Australia and EU exports decline.

• Latin America imports increase. China,

Asia and Latin America monthly

imports decline.

• Fonterra New Zealand milk collections for

February were 130.3 million kgMS, 2.7% higher

than February in the prior season. At the end

of February, collections were down 1.8% on a

12-month basis.

• Fonterra Australia milk collections for

February were 7.7 million kgMS, 1.5% up on

February in the prior season.

• Award winning farming for a sustainable future.

Key Dates

May 2023

FY23 Q3 Business Update

1 June 2023

Start of the 2023/24 Season

31 July 2023

End of FY23 Financial Year

MARCH 2023

For further details –

%
%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for February 2023

compared to February 2022

Change for February 2023

compared to February 2022

Change for January 2023

compared to January 2022

Change for January 2023

compared to January 2022

Change for the 12 months

to February 2023

Change for the 12 months

to February 2023

Change for the 12 months

to January 2023

Change for the 12 months

to January 2023

0.83.62.3

6.60.10.5

1.0

2.1

2

OUR MARKETS

Global Production

New Zealand February

production increases but

remains down annually. US

and EU monthly production

increases, while Australia

continues to decline

New Zealand¹ milk

production was up 2.3% on

a litres basis, (also up 2.3% on

milk solids basis) in February

compared to the same period

the year prior.

Despite the disruption of

Cyclone Gabrielle, wet and

warm weather across the

North Island had a favourable

impact on pasture conditions.

South Island production

continues to be constrained by

dry conditions.

New Zealand milk production

for the 12 months to February

was down 2.1% on the previous

comparable period.

Fonterra New Zealand

collections are reported for

February, see page 5 for details.

Australia milk production

decreased 3.6% in January

compared to the same period

the year prior.

Despite more favourable

summer conditions, a

significantly wetter than

average spring continues to

impact production through

reduced availability of

pasture and lower quality

supplementary feed.

Australia milk production for

the 12 months to January was

6.6% lower on the previous

comparable period.

Fonterra collections in Australia

are reported for February, see

page 5 for details.

EU milk production²

increased 1.0% in January

year-on-year.

The production increase was

driven primarily by Germany,

Netherlands and Belgium, and

partially offset by declines in

Italy, France and Spain.

EU milk production for the

12 months to January was

up 0.1% on the previous

comparable period.

Increases in Poland,

Netherlands, Germany and

Belgium were largely offset

by declines in Italy, Spain

and France.

US milk production

increased by 0.8% in February

compared to the same period

the year prior.

Production continues the

recent trend of year-on-year

growth, supported by a herd

size which is tracking above

prior year. However, recent

challenging weather conditions

in California and on-farm cost

pressures are expected to

curb herd size growth in the

coming months.

Milk production for the

12 months to February

increased 0.5% on the previous

comparable period.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.

2 Excludes UK.

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

Global Exports

US and New Zealand

monthly exports up.

Australia and EU monthly

exports decline

Total New Zealand dairy

exports increased 3.5%,

or 9,395 MT, in February

compared to the same

period the year prior.

The increase was driven by

an increase in SMP export

volumes to China and

Southeast Asia. This was

largely offset by a decline

in WMP exports to China

and Indonesia.

Exports for the 12 months

to February were down by

3.3%, or 114,224 MT, on the

previous comparable period.

This was primarily driven

by decreases in WMP and

cheese and partially offset by

increases in SMP.

EU dairy exports

decreased 1.8%, or 8,849  MT,

in January compared to the

same period the year prior.

The decline in exports

volumes continues to be

driven by lower fluid milk

products shipments to China

and WMP to Oman and

China. The decrease was

partially offset by an increase

in infant formula and SMP

exports to China.

Exports for the 12 months to

January were down 8.9%, or

640,331 MT, on the previous

comparable period, driven

by declines in fluid milk

products, SMP, cheese and

WMP and partially offset by

increases in infant formula

and cultured products.

US dairy exports

increased 15.8% or 29,632 MT

in January compared to

the same period the year

prior. It is the strongest

year-on-year increase since

November 2021.

Stronger demand was

observed across most

products categories, in

particular, for lactose to

China, SMP to Mexico

and Thailand and cheese

to Mexico.

Exports for the 12 months

to January were up 5.9% or

162,601 MT on the previous

comparable period, driven

by lactose, cheese, WPC and

whey, and partially offset by

declines in SMP.

Australia dairy exports

decreased 39.0%, or

33,318 MT, in January

compared to the same

period the year prior, which

included very strong export

volumes to China.

Lower volumes of fluid milk

products to China are driving

this decrease. Cheese and

SMP exports to China have

also declined year on year.

Exports for the 12 months to

January were down 13.2%, or

120,655 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was predominantly

driven by decreases in

fluid milk products, WMP

and cheese.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

%%%

%

%

%

Change for February 2023

compared February 2022

Change for January 2023

compared to January 2022

Change for January 2023

compared to January2022

Change for January 2023

compared to January2022

Change for the 12 months

to January 2023

Change for the 12 months

to January 2023

Change for the 12 months

to February 2023

Change for the 12 months

to January 2023

15.839.0

3.5

1.8

5.913.28.93.3

%

%

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

Global Imports

Latin America imports

increase. China, Asia

and Middle East & Africa

monthly imports decline

Latin America dairy

import volumes¹ increased

8.8%, or 14,871 MT, in January

compared to the same period

the year prior.

The increase was driven by

higher demand for WMP

by Brazil, SMP and cheese

by Mexico, and partially

offset by lower demand of

fluid milk products by the

Dominican Republic.

Imports for the 12 months

to January were up 9.8%, or

204,192 MT on the previous

comparable period, driven by

higher volumes of WMP, SMP,

cheese and infant formula.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 7.9%, or 33,645 MT,

in January compared to the

same period the year prior.

The decrease was driven

by lower demand for whey

by Indonesia and Vietnam,

and SMP by the Philippines

and Malaysia.

Imports for the 12 months to

January were down 2.6%, or

131,997 MT, on the previous

comparable period, driven

by a decrease in demand for

fluid milk products, whey

and cheese.

Middle East and

Africa dairy import

volumes¹ decreased 4.4%,

or 21,446 MT, in January

compared to the same period

the year prior.

The decrease was driven by

lower volumes of fluid milk

products and cheese to Iraq,

and partially offset by higher

demand for SMP to Algeria.

Imports for the 12 months

to January were up 2.8%, or

144,022 MT, on the previous

comparable period, driven by

increases in SMP, cheese and

infant formula, and partially

offset by a decline in fluid

milk products.

China dairy import

volumes decreased by 6.8%,

or 18,520 MT, in February

compared to the same period

the year prior.

The pace of China’s reopening,

post-lockdown restrictions,

as well as high domestic

production continue to have

an impact on import volumes,

particularly fluid milk products

and WMP.

This was partially offset by

an increase in demand for

whey. Imports of SMP from

New Zealand also increased.

Imports for the 12 months to

February were down 22.0%,

on the previous comparable

period or 902,623 MT, driven

by WMP, fluid milk products

and SMP.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%

%

%%

%

Change for January 2023

compared to January 2022

Change for February 2023

compared to February 2022

Change for January 2023

compared to January 2022

Change for January 2023

compared to January 2022

Change for the 12 months

to January 2023

Change for the 12 months

to January 2023

Change for the 12 months

to January 2023

6.87.98.8

2.62.8

%

Change for the 12 months

to February 2023

22.0

4.4

9.8

%

%

To view a table that shows
detailed milk collections in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%

%%

Season-to-date

1 July to 28 February

Season-to-date

1 June to 28 February

Season-to-date

1 June to 28 February

Season-to-date

1 June to 28 February

Change for February 2023

compared to February 2022

Change for February 2023

compared to February 2022

Change for February 2023

compared to February 2022

Change for February 2023

compared to February 2022

1.51.56.42.7

1.80.32.01.1

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY



















5

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Milk Collections

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

New Zealand Milk Collections

Fonterra's Australia

collections for February

were 7.7 million kgMS, a

1.5% increase from February

last season.

Farm collections increased

0.1 million kgMS and

third party collections were

stable year on year.

Season-to-date collections

reached 73.9 million kgMS,

1.8% behind last season.

North Island milk

collections in February

were 71. 7 million kgMS,

6.4% ahead of February

last season.

Season-to-date collections

were 683.1 million kgMS,

2.0% behind last season.

February weather was

very wet for the far north

and eastern regions of

North Island. For the central

North Island, the wet/warm

weather also brought strong

pasture growing conditions.

Continued wet weather

throughout the month

caused some disruption

on milk volumes, however,

farms are well set up for

late summer/autumn with

strong pasture covers and

animal condition.

South Island milk

collections in February were

58.7 million kgMS, 1.5%

behind last February.

Season-to-date collections

were 463.5 million kgMS,

0.3% ahead of last season.

More dry and warm weather

in the South Island caused

lower milk production

throughout the month.

There is a potential drought

risk for Southland and

Canterbury regions over

the late summer/early

Autumn period.

Fonterra's New Zealand

collections for February

were 130.3 million

kgMS, 2.7% higher than

last February.

Season-to-date collections

were 1,146.6 million kgMS,

1.1% behind last season.

February saw Cyclone

Gabrielle disrupt milk

volumes that were beginning

to recover, but ended

with strong North Island

production. This was offset

by slightly unfavourable

South Island milk supply.

%%%

%

%

The inclusion of off-GDT sales

contributed approximately

five cents per kgMS to the

Milk Price for the season

to 31 January 2023.

%
%%%

%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

MAR MAY AUG DEC MAR

JUN JAN OCT



, 

, 

,



,

,

.

.

.

.

.

.

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity prices and New Zealand

dollar trend

Financial markets were rocked by emerging stresses in both

the US and European banking sectors which caused significant

declines in interest rates on both sides of the Atlantic. This,

together with increased volatility in equity markets, resulted in

reduced risk appetite and consequently increased ‘safe-haven’

demand for US dollars. Additionally, weaker than expected

New Zealand economic data led to the NZD declining to below

62 US cents before recovering later in March.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

21 March 2023:

The next trading event will be held on 4 April 2023. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

2.3

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

3,395

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

25.1

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 4,052/MT

10.1

CHEDDAR

USD 3,228/MT

1.5

WMP

USD 2,653/MT

3.5

SMP

USD 4,748/MT

3.1

BUTTER

USD 5,150/MT

3.6

AMF

25,099

MT

LATEST AUCTION

443,245

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
At the end of February, Fonterra showed up at Gulfood in Dubai, the world’s largest food and

beverage event – to showcase its fantastic range of products to the world.

This year, the Co-op showcased the potential of its proteins in a range of applications – like

spoonable and drinkable yoghurt – and mouth-watering Anchor™ Food Professionals products,

like cream cheese and whipping cream, brought to life by expert pastry chef, Ronny Keyrouz

(pictured below).

Fonterra’s ingredients team

(NZMP™) shared how they

can creatively help customers

fortify different products

with extra protein, as well

as making sure customers

knew about the many extra

services on offer to make

their life easier.

Adam Lyall, Fonterra Regional Sales Manager for MEA, noticed

that health and wellness and protein fortification continues to

be top of mind for consumers – and Fonterra’s ingredients play

right into that:

“A lot of customers were asking how they can add more

protein into their dairy products, whether it's yogurt, cheese

or consumer powder, because they see that with the rise of

the health-conscious consumer, high protein products are in

demand as a way to maximise nutritional benefits” said Adam.

The Co-op’s foodservice team (Anchor™ Food Professionals)

enabled customers to see in person just how versatile its

ingredients are, by putting chef Ronny Keyrouz in the spotlight.

Ronny made brownies, cheesecakes, cookies and pasta – all

using Anchor cream, cream cheese and butter sheets.

But perhaps the most unique thing about the stand was

how the Co-op showed up when it came to illustrating

its sustainability credentials - which showed what makes

New Zealand grass-fed dairy different.

Fonterra Sustainability Solutions Manager Jenna Grieve, and Trade Strategy Manager for Europe

and MEA Mark Casey, took the stage to participate in discussions revolving around sustainability.

Jenna shared a presentation on how the Co-op is working to make the dairy industry less carbon

intensive, and shared many of the game-changing methane innovations it is testing, and Mark

participated in a panel discussing the future of animal-based food.

Bringing the

New Zealand flavour to

the world’s largest food

and beverage event

Pictured left (left to right):

Erika Galvez, Category Marketing

Manager, Helena Jannetta,

Marketing Director for MEA,

and Jenna Grieve, Sustainability

Solutions Manager

Our Performance

Award-winning farming
for a sustainable future

Martin Bennett has been a

dairy farmer for nearly half

a century so he’s seen his

fair share of change in the

industry over that time.

“I’ve been a dairy farmer

since I left school. I was

always going to be a dairy

farmer. It was something that

I decided when I was very

young, all of four years old.”

But Martin isn’t your typical

run of the mill dairy farmer.

Described as a “national

champion for social and

environmental sustainability

on farms”, Martin was

recognised in the New Year

Honours list, becoming an

Officer of the New Zealand

Order of Merit for services

to the environment and

the community.

That commitment started

when Martin and his wife

Judith were sharemilking

and accelerated when they

bought their own farm near

Putaruru, where they milk

400 cows.

“When we first bought the

farm, we had a beautiful

1.6-kilometre stream but

none of it was fenced. That

was the first thing we did,

then through some local

contacts we got some plants

and away we went.”

Martin became a founding

member of the Dairy

Environment Leaders group,

which is funded by DairyNZ

and initially organised by the

NZ Farm Environment Trust,

and he was its Chair between

2009 and 2016.

“I knew I wasn’t the only

guy paddling this canoe

and we had annual forums

where we would invite a

group of 50 farmers or so

to discuss ways they could

farm more sustainably

and drive sustainable

environmental change in

their own communities.

“Through the forums we

created a small army of

like-minded farmers to get

things going. They certainly

had positive impacts on their

local catchments especially.

But it’s fair to say that the

Dairy Environment Leaders

group was not that popular

at first.

“That was a time of extreme

growth. Farmers were all

about growing the industry

and their businesses.

Environmental sustainability

wasn’t really on the radar

at all and we got some

pushback, but we persevered.

“We have an obligation to do

the right thing and be good

stewards of the land by doing

what we can to minimise

our footprint. Most farmers

are on board with that and

there’s a new generation of

dairy farmers who are really

running with it and doing a

fantastic job.”

Martin says the dairy

industry still has a lot of work

to do with tough regulations

coming down the line.

“Things like nutrient

management and emissions

reductions will take

sustainability to the next

level. It will involve a lot of

work and change but the

best thing we as farmers can

do is to work with our supply

companies, not against them.

Regardless of what happens

in the industry, Fonterra

is always going to be the

benchmark and they have

a big role to play in helping

farmers to navigate and

understand what needs to

happen to ensure the future

success of our industry.”

Martin says he sees

his honour as an

acknowledgement for all

the hard work thousands

of farmers have put in to

improve life on the land.

“We have an industry that is

a far better operation than it

used to be. There are some

pretty good people out

there, and to be singled out

as one of them is very nice.

I’m very grateful for that but

sustainability is a moving

target and always has been,

so let’s get on and chase it.”

Our Co-op

8

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL 

JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES















EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB  JAN  DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s















AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT 

MT s

















AVERAGE

9


Supplementary Information

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to January; New Zealand and US to February.

NOTE: Data for EU, US and Australia to January; and New Zealand to February.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa, Latin America to January; and China to February.

SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR MAR JAN OCT FEB JUL AUG MAY SEP NOV DEC JUN

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT

QUANTITY SOLD  MT

10


Supplementary Information

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

FEBRUARY

2023

FEBRUARY


2022

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2022/23

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2021/22

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

130.3126.92.7%1,146.61,159.6(1.1%)

North Island71. 767.36.4%683.1697.3(2.0%)

South Island58.759.6(1.5%)463.5462.30.3%

Australia7.77.61.5%73.975.2(1.8%)

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(21 MARCH 2023)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2022)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

25,099443,245

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

14.7%4.2%

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

3,3953,662

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

(33.4%)(15. 7%)

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

(2.3%)–

Fonterra GDT results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

11
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

Cultured Products

Fermented milks that are

prepared by using starter

cultures and controlled

fermentation including

yoghurt, yoghurt drinks, sour

cream, crème fraiche.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

MEA

Middle East Africa.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products,

except for Reference

Products, produced

by the New Zealand

Ingredients business.

NZMP

New Zealand Milk Products.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.


Glossary

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate.

WPI

Whey Protein Isolate.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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