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Global Dairy Update May 2023

Operational Update31 May 2023FSFConsumer Staples

• Third quarter
business update.

• Fonterra taking further

steps to decarbonise and

lift efficiency.

1

Global Dairy

UPDATE

• New Zealand, EU and US monthly production

increases, Australia production continues

to decline. New Zealand and Australia down

on a 12 month basis.

• New Zealand and EU monthly exports up.

Australia and US exports decline.

• Latin America imports increase.

China, Asia and Middle East & Africa

monthly imports decline.

• Fonterra New Zealand milk collections for

April were 121.2 million kgMS, 8.1% higher

than April in the prior season. Season-to-date

collections were 1,405.1 million kgMS, 0.2%

behind last season.

• Fonterra Australia milk collections for April

were 8.4 million kgMS, 6.1% up on April in the

prior season. Season-to-date collections are

0.3% down on last season.

• Take a peek at Shenzhen’s new space for innovative and

delicious drinks.

Key Dates

1 June 2023

Start of the 2023/24 Season

31 July 2023

End of FY23 Financial Year

September 2023

FY23 Annual Results

Announcement

M AY 2 02 3

For further details,

visit our website –

%
%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for April 2023

compared to April 2022

Change for April 2023

compared to April 2022

Change for April 2023

compared to April 2022

Change for February 2023

compared to February 2022

Change for the 12 months

to April 2023

Change for the 12 months

to April 2023

Change for the 12 months

to April 2023

Change for the 12 months

to February 2023

0.31.76.7

6.30.10.7

0.7

1.1

2

OUR MARKETS

Global Production

New Zealand, EU and

US monthly production

increases, Australia

production continues

to decline

New Zealand¹ milk

production was up 6.7%

on a litres basis, (up 7.3%

on milk solids basis) in April

compared to the same

period the year prior.

Production continues to

recover due to intermittent

rain and warmer weather,

conducive to strong pasture

growing conditions.

New Zealand milk

production for the

12 months to April was

down 1.1% on the previous

comparable period.

Fonterra New Zealand

collections are reported for

April, see page 5 for details.

Australia milk

production decreased 1.7%

in April compared to the

same period the year prior.

Favourable Autumn

conditions, with improved

feed availability, have slowed

the rate of milk production

decline in April.

Australia milk production for

the 12 months to April was

6.3% lower compared to the

previous comparable period.

Fonterra collections in

Australia are reported for

April, see page 5 for details.

EU milk production²

increased 0.7% in February

compared to February the

year prior.

The production increase was

driven primarily by Germany,

the Netherlands and

Belgium, and partially offset

by declines in France, Spain

and Hungary.

EU milk production for the

12 months to February was

up 0.1% on the previous

comparable period.

Increases in Poland, the

Netherlands and Germany

were largely offset by

declines in Italy, Spain

and France.

US milk production

increased by 0.3% in April

compared to the same

period the year prior.

Production continued

to increase year-on-year

although at a slower pace

compared to prior months.

This increase was driven by

larger herd sizes relative to

the same period last year.

However, due to a large barn

fire, cow numbers decreased

in April.

Milk production for the

12 months to April increased

0.7% on the previous

comparable period.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.

2 Excludes UK.

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

Global Exports

New Zealand and

EU monthly exports

up. Australia and US

exports decline

Total New Zealand dairy

exports increased 28.0%, or

74,273 MT, in April compared

to the same period the

year prior.

The increase was driven by

higher export volumes of

WMP and SMP to Algeria as

a result of sucessful tenders,

as well as higher export

volumes of WMP and SMP to

China against a weak April in

the prior period.

Exports for the 12 months to

April were down by 1.9%, or

64,332 MT, on the previous

comparable period. This

was driven by decreases in

WMP and MPC, and partially

offset by increases in SMP

and AMF.

EU dairy exports

increased 7.3%, or 42,152  MT,

in March compared to the

same period the year prior.

The increase was driven by

butter¹, SMP to Algeria and

China, and partially offset

by a decrease in fluid milk

products to China.

Exports for the 12 months to

March were down 7.7%, or

537,731 MT, on the previous

comparable period, driven

by declines in fluid milk

products, cheese and WMP,

and partially offset by

increases in infant formula

and cultured products.

US dairy exports

decreased 0.9%, or 2,251  MT,

in March compared to

the same period the year

prior. This is the second

year-on-year decrease since

April 2022.

Slightly lower volumes of

SMP, whey, butter and WMP

were partially offset by an

increase in exports of lactose

to China and New Zealand.

Exports for the 12 months

to March were up 5.5%, or

150,356 MT, on the previous

comparable period, driven

by lactose, cheese, whey

and WPC. This was partially

offset by declines in SMP.

Australia dairy

exports decreased 19.5%,

or 15, 727 MT, in March

compared to the same

period the year prior, which

benefited from strong export

volumes to China.

The decline in exports was

driven by lower volumes of

fluid milk products to China,

as well as a decrease in

exports of cheese and WMP.

Exports for the 12 months to

March were down 19.7%, or

183,325 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was predominantly

driven by decreases in fluid

milk products, WMP, cheese

and SMP.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

%%%

%

%

%

Change for April 2023

compared April 2022

Change for March 2023

compared to March 2022

Change for March 2023

compared to March 2022

Change for March 2023¹

compared to March 2022

Change for the 12 months

to March 2023

Change for the 12 months

to March 2023

Change for the 12 months

to April 2023

Change for the 12 months

to March 2023

0.919.5

28.0

7.3

5.519.77.71.9

%

%

1 Butter export volumes for March 2023 are currently under review by Eurostat due to anomalies in the data..

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

Global Imports

Latin America imports

increase. China, Asia

and Middle East & Africa

monthly imports decline

Latin America dairy

import volumes¹ increased

10.5%, or 20,140 MT, in March

compared to the same period

the year prior.

The increase was driven by

higher imported volumes of

WMP and lactose by Brazil,

and SMP and AMF by Mexico.

Imports for the 12 months

to March were up 12.4%, or

256,518 MT, on the previous

comparable period, driven by

higher volumes of WMP, SMP,

cheese and AMF.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 3.8%, or 17,671 MT,

in March compared to the

same period the year prior.

The decrease was driven by

lower imported volumes

of WMP by Thailand and

Bangladesh, fluid milk

products by the Philippines,

SMP by Indonesia and cheese

by Japan, and partially offset

by increased volumes of

whey by Vietnam.

Imports for the 12 months to

March were down 4.0%, or

203,720 MT, on the previous

comparable period, driven by

lower volumes of whey, infant

formula, WPC and WPI.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 8.1%, or 37,696 MT,

in March compared to the

same period the year prior.

The decline was driven by

lower volumes of fluid milk

products and cheese to Iraq,

and WMP to Oman, and

partially offset by higher

demand for SMP to Algeria.

Imports for the 12 months

to March were down 0.1%,

or 4,586 MT, on the previous

comparable period, driven

by a decline in fluid milk

products and WMP, and

partially offset by an increase

of SMP.

China dairy import

volumes decreased by 0.5%,

or 1,377 MT, in April compared

to the same period the

year prior.

The pace of China’s reopening,

post-lock down restrictions,

as well as high domestic

production, continues to

impact import volumes,

particularly WMP and

fluid milk products. This

was partially offset by an

increase in demand for SMP

from New Zealand and

Australia, as well as whey and

infant formula.

Imports for the 12 months

to April were down 18.1%, or

710,447 MT, on the previous

comparable period, driven by

a decline in WMP, fluid milk

products and SMP.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%

%

%%

%

Change for March 2023

compared to March 2022

Change for April 2023

compared to April 2022

Change for March 2023

compared to March 2022

Change for March 2023

compared to March 2022

Change for the 12 months

to March 2023

Change for the 12 months

to March 2023

Change for the 12 months

to March 2023

0.53.810.5

4.00.1

%

Change for the 12 months

to April 2023

18.1

8.1

12.4

%

%

To view a table that shows
detailed milk collections in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%

%%

Season-to-date

1 July to 30 April

Season-to-date

1 June to 30 April

Season-to-date

1 June to 30 April

Season-to-date

1 June to 30 April

Change for April 2023

compared to April 2022

Change for April 2023

compared to April 2022

Change for April 2023

compared to April 2022

Change for April 2023

compared to April 2022

6.15.810.08.1

0.30.70.90.2

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY



















5

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Milk Collections

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

New Zealand Milk Collections

Fonterra's Australia

collections

for April were

8.4 million kgMS, a 6.1%

increase from April last season.

Collections increased in April as

a result of favourable autumn

conditions, as well as recruiting

and retaining more Australian

dairy farmers across Victoria

and Tasmania.

Season-to-date collections

reached 90.8 million kgMS,

0.3% behind last season.

North Island milk

collections in April were

67.0 million kgMS, 10.0%

ahead of April last season.

Season-to-date collections

were 825.6 million kgMS, 0.9%

behind last season.

The North Island continues to

see a good mixture of weather

supporting strong milk supply.

Recent favourable weather

conditions have supported

strong pasture cover and good

animal conditions as farms

prepare for the new season.

South Island milk

collections in April were

54.2 million kgMS, 5.8% ahead

of last April.

Season-to-date collections

were 579.5 million kgMS, 0.7%

ahead of last season.

The South Island has

experienced good rainfall and

warmer temperatures with

more settled conditions.

The South Island continues to

benefit from the rainfall aiding

in pasture recovery and good

animal condition, allowing

for a steady wind down for

the season.

Fonterra's New Zealand

collections for April were

121.2 million kgMS, 8.1% higher

than last April.

Season-to-date collections

were 1,405.1 million kgMS,

0.2% behind last season.

April weather was mixed with

intermittent rain and warmer

weather conducive to strong

pasture growing conditions.

%%%

Forecast milk collection for the

2023/24 season

1, 4 8 0M

kgMS

Forecast Farmgate Milk Price for

the 2023/24 season

NZD

per

kgMS

%

7. 2 5 -

8.75

Outlook for Fonterra

in New Zealand

%

The inclusion of off-GDT sales

contributed approximately

eight cents per kgMS to the

Milk Price for the season

to 30 April 2023.

%
%%%

%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

MAY JUL OCT FEB MAY AUG MAR DEC



, 

, 

,

,

,

.

.

.

.

.

.

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity prices and New Zealand

dollar trend

Financial markets have undergone a period of relative stability

over the past two months, allowing for bonds, equities, and

foreign exchange rates to broadly consolidate within their

recent trading ranges. The NZD/USD exchange rate has

continued to trade between 61 and 64 US cents.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

16 May 2023:

The next trading event will be held on 6 June 2023. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

2.1

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

3,527

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

19.9

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 4,600/MT

4.8

AMF

USD 5,068/MT

2.4

BUTTER

USD 2,793/MT

3.4

SMP

USD 3,244/MT

0.4

WMP

USD 4,407/MT

3.4

CHEDDAR

19,925

MT

LATEST AUCTION

527,114

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
Our Performance

Fonterra taking further

steps to decarbonise

and lift efficiency

Fonterra is continuing to

progress its decarbonisation

work with the

announcement of another

site transitioning from

coal and the installation

of a heat pump and solar

thermal system.

The Co-operative will

convert its coal boilers at

its Hautapu site to wood

pellets and install a heat

pump at its Palmerston

North milk processing

site that supplies the local

market. Both projects have

received support from the

Government Investment

in Decarbonising Industry

(GIDI) Process Heat

Contestable Fund.

Fonterra Chief Operating

Officer Fraser Whineray

says the Co-operative is

commercially focused on

reducing emissions.

“There are a number of

solutions we’re using to

decarbonise our operations

and these two projects are

a good example of different

technologies available.”

Once complete in early 2024

the Hautapu site will reduce

our carbon emissions by a

forecast 15, 785 tonnes per

annum – the equivalent of

taking about 6,500 cars off

New Zealand’s roads.

The heat pump at the

Palmerston North site will

convert wasted heat from

the refrigeration system

into a heat source. This will

reduce the amount of natural

gas needed for process heat.

The site will also generate

additional heat via a solar

thermal plant.

“This GIDI co-funding will

help the Co-operative

progress two emission

reduction projects ahead of

time. It will help us continue

to make progress towards

our target of reducing

emissions by 30% across

all our manufacturing

operations by 2030 (from a

2018 baseline), on the way

to net zero by 2050, and

transition out of coal by

2037” says Mr Whineray.

Fonterra is receiving up to

$2.5 million in co-funding

to complete the work at

Hautapu and $425,000

for the Palmerston North

site project.

These projects are just

two of many underway to

decarbonise the Fonterra

business, such as the Waitoa

and Stirling sites that are

in the process of installing

wood biomass boilers to

transition out of coal.

The Stirling wood biomass

boiler was fired up for the

first time in April, marking

the next step on the site’s

transition to be totally

reliant on renewable

energy for its process heat.

Changing to this boiler will

reduce the annual carbon

emissions by 18,500 tonnes,

the equivalent of taking

approximately 7,700 cars off

New Zealand’s roads.

The new Waitoa wood

biomass boiler, due to be

operational in November

2023, will reduce the site’s

annual carbon emissions

by approximately 48,000

tonnes, the equivalent of

taking approximately 20,000

cars off New Zealand’s roads.

Our Co-op
8

Take a peek at

Shenzhen’s new space

for innovation and

delicious drinks

Fonterra has established a

fifth application centre in

China, but unlike the four,

the newest one is focused on

beverage applications.

Our newest facility opened

on 25 April. It is based in

China’s southern city of

Shenzhen and is equipped

to design innovative

solutions for the Co-op’s

China customers.

It’s a huge milestone for

Fonterra and Shenzhen is the

perfect location for it, says

Fonterra Greater China CEO

Teh-han Chow.

“Many of China’s leading

beverage customers

are headquartered in

Shenzhen where new ideas

flourish due to the city’s

young population and

innovative environment.

“We see great potential in

combining Fonterra's high-

quality dairy products with

the rich flavours of Chinese

beverages. This fusion is sure

to create some exciting new

products that will delight

both consumers and industry

players alike.”

China is a highly competitive

beverage market, with

consumers constantly

seeking the next best drink.

Last year, 1,434 new kinds

of non-alcoholic beverages

were launched in China by

key tea and beverage brands.

Businesses must adapt

quickly to market trends

and continuously create

novel products that typically

combine traditional tea

ingredients, dairy and

fruit products.

“The Shenzhen application

centre provides a new

platform to explore the

diverse use of Fonterra

products in beverages

and provide innovative

application solutions to meet

the local needs of Chinese

consumers,” says Teh-han.

“We must be more agile

and continue to develop

our capabilities to produce

cutting-edge solutions

that add value to our

customers' businesses.

“As a New Zealand company

deeply rooted in China for

50 years, we want to play an

active role in the industry,

integrate ourselves into the

local innovation ecosystem,

and empower the high-

quality development of the

whole value chain.”

A team of technical experts

and experienced chefs are

stationed at the Shenzhen

application centre. They

help to create an interactive,

experiential space for

customers, through product

development seminars,

demonstrations, and virtual

live teachings.

Our four other application

centres are based in the

cities of Shanghai, Beijing,

Guangzhou and Chengdu.

While the Shenzhen

application centre will

be focused on beverage

applications, it will also have

bakery capacity. Likewise,

the four other application

centres have beverage

application capacity.

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL 

JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES















EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s













AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT 

MT s

















AVERAGE

9


Supplementary Information

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU to February; New Zealand, US and Australia to April.

NOTE: Data for EU, US and Australia to March; New Zealand to April.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa, Latin America to March; and China to April.

SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR

JAN

OCT FEB

JUL AUG MAY

SEP NOV DEC JUN

,

,

,

,

,

,

,
,

,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT

QUANTITY SOLD  MT

10


Supplementary Information

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

APRIL

2023

APRIL


2022

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2022/23

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2021/22

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

121.2112.18.1%1,405.11,408.5(0.2%)

North Island67.060.910.0%825.6833.0(0.9%)

South Island54.251.25.8%579.5575.50.7%

Australia8.47.96.1%90.891.1(0.3%)

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(16 MAY 2023)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2022)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

19,925527,114

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

(16.1%)2.6%

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

3,5273,628

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

(20.6%)(17.6%)

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

(2.1%)–

Fonterra GDT results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

11
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

Cultured Products

Fermented milks that are

prepared by using starter

cultures and controlled

fermentation including

yoghurt, yoghurt drinks, sour

cream, crème fraiche.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products,

except for Reference

Products, produced

by the New Zealand

Ingredients business.

NZMP

New Zealand Milk Products.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.


Glossary

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate.

WPI

Whey Protein Isolate.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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