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Global Dairy Update April 2023

Operational Update27 April 2023FSFConsumer Staples

• Methane joint venture "now open for business".
1

Global Dairy

UPDATE

• New Zealand, EU and US monthly production

increase, Australia production continues

to decline. New Zealand and Australia down

on a 12 month basis.

• Monthly exports decline across all regions.


• China, Latin America and Asia monthly

imports increase. Middle East & Africa

monthly imports decline.

• Fonterra New Zealand milk collections for

March were 137.8 million kgMS, 0.7% higher

than March in the prior season. Season-to-

date collections are 1.0% down on last season.

• Fonterra Australia milk collections for March

were 8.5 million kgMS, 6.9% up on March in

the prior season. Season-to-date collections

are 0.9% down on last season.

• Celebrating success – Awards round up.

Key Dates

25 May 2023

FY23 Q3 Business Update

1 June 2023

Start of the 2023/24 Season

31 July 2023

End of FY23 Financial Year

APRIL 2023

%
%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for March 2023

compared to March 2022

Change for March 2023

compared to March 2022

Change for February 2023

compared to February 2022

Change for February 2023

compared to February 2022

Change for the 12 months

to March 2023

Change for the 12 months

to March 2023

Change for the 12 months

to February 2023

Change for the 12 months

to February 2023

0.55.30.3

6.60.10.6

0.7

1.9

2

OUR MARKETS

Global Production

New Zealand, EU and

US monthly production

increase, Australia

production continues

to decline

New Zealand¹ milk

production was up 0.3%

on a litres basis, (up 1.0% on

milk solids basis) in March

compared to March the

year prior.

Favourable pasture growing

conditions have contributed

to increased production in

the North Island while South

Island collections are stabilising

following dry conditions.

New Zealand milk production

for the 12 months to March

was down 1.9% on the previous

comparable period.

Fonterra New Zealand

collections are reported for

March, see page 5 for details.

Australia milk production

decreased 5.3% in February

compared to February the

year prior.

While Autumn conditions look

more favourable, record rainfall

and flooding throughout

spring continues to impact

availability and quality of

pasture. Combined with

the increasing cost of feed,

Australian milk production

remains constrained.

Australia milk production for

the 12 months to February was

6.6% lower compared to the

previous comparable period.

Fonterra collections in Australia

are reported for March, see

page 5 for details.

EU milk production²

increased 0.7% in February

compared to February the

year prior.

The production increase was

driven primarily by Germany,

the Netherlands and Belgium,

and partially offset by declines

in France, Spain and Hungary.

EU milk production for the

12 months to February was

up 0.1% on the previous

comparable period.

Increases in Poland, the

Netherlands and Germany

were largely offset by declines

in Italy, Spain and France.

US milk production

increased by 0.5% in March

compared to March the

year prior.

Production continued to

increase year-on-year although

at a slower pace compared

to prior months. This was

driven by growing herd sizes.

However, on farm cost and

margin pressures could

lead to cow culling in the

coming months.

Milk production for the

12 months to March increased

0.6% on the previous

comparable period.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.

2 Excludes UK.

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

Global Exports

Monthly exports

decline across

all regions

Total New Zealand dairy

exports decreased 6.2%,

or 21,038 MT, in March

compared to March the

year prior.

The decrease was driven by

lower shipments of WMP

to China and Indonesia.

This was partially offset by

an increase in exports of

infant formula.

Exports for the 12 months

to March were down by

3.8%, or 131,035 MT, on the

previous comparable period.

This was primarily driven

by decreases in WMP and

MPC, and partially offset by

increases in SMP and AMF.

EU dairy exports

decreased 1.4%, or 6,911  MT,

in February compared to

February the year prior.

The decline in export

volumes continues to be

driven by lower fluid milk

products shipments to China

and cheese to China and

Ukraine, partially offset by

an increase in infant formula

to China and SMP exports to

Algeria and Yemen.

Exports for the 12 months

to February were down

9.4%, or 667,202 MT, on the

previous comparable period,

driven by declines in fluid

milk products, cheese and

WMP and partially offset by

increases in infant formula

and cultured products.

US dairy exports

decreased 1.4%, or 2,957  MT,

in February compared to

February the year prior.

It is the first year-on-year

decrease since April 2022.

Lower demand for WPC,

fluid milk products and

infant formula was partially

offset by an increase in

lactose exports to China and

New Zealand.

Exports for the 12 months to

February were up 5.6%, or

154.814 MT, on the previous

comparable period, driven

by lactose, cheese, whey and

WPC, and partially offset by

declines in SMP.

Australia dairy exports

decreased 32.3%, or

25,535 MT, in February

compared to February the

year prior, which benefited

from very strong export

volumes to China.

Lower volumes of fluid

milk products to China

as well as a decrease in

cheese and SMP are driving

this decrease.

Exports for the 12 months

to February were down

16.9%, or 156,642 MT, on the

previous comparable period.

This was predominantly

driven by decreases in

fluid milk products, WMP

and cheese.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

%%%

%

%

%

Change for March 2023

compared March 2022

Change for February 2023

compared to February 2022

Change for February 2023

compared to February 2022

Change for February 2023

compared to February2022

Change for the 12 months

to February 2023

Change for the 12 months

to February 2023

Change for the 12 months

to March 2023

Change for the 12 months

to February 2023

1.432.3

6.2

1.4

5.616.99.43.8

%

%

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

Global Imports

China, Latin America

and Asia monthly

imports increase. Middle

East & Africa monthly

imports decline

Latin America dairy

import volumes¹ increased

17.9%, or 27,875 MT, in

February compared to

February the year prior.

The increase was driven by

higher demand for WMP by

Brazil, SMP and cheese by

Mexico, and partially offset

by lower demand for fluid

milk products by El Salvador.

Imports for the 12 months to

February were up 11.4%, or

235,839 MT, on the previous

comparable period, driven by

higher volumes of WMP, SMP,

cheese and infant formula.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

increased 0.3%, or 1,040 MT,

in February compared to

February the year prior.

The increase was driven

by stronger demand for

lactose by India and cultured

products by the Philippines,

and partially offset by

lower demand for WMP

by Bangladesh and infant

formula by Malaysia.

Imports for the 12 months to

February were down 3.2%, or

166,620 MT, on the previous

comparable period, driven

by a decrease in demand for

whey, fluid milk products,

SMP and cheese.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 4.1%, or 18,255 MT,

in February compared to

February the year prior.

The decrease was driven by

lower volumes of WMP and

cheese to Saudi Arabia and

Iraq, and partially offset by

higher demand of SMP by

Morocco and Egypt.

Imports for the 12 months

to February were up 1.4%, or

73,951 MT, on the previous

comparable period, driven

by increases in SMP, infant

formula and cheese, and

partially offset by a decline in

fluid milk products.

China dairy import

volumes increased by

1.8%, or 5,520 MT, in March

compared to March the

year prior. It is the first

year-on-year increase since

February 2022.

The increase was driven

by stronger demand

for whey from the US,

SMP from New Zealand

and infant formula from

the Netherlands, and largely

offset by lower demand for

WMP and fluid milk products.

Imports for the 12 months to

March were down 19.6%, or

782,447 MT, on the previous

comparable period driven by

a decline in WMP, fluid milk

products and SMP.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%

%

%%

%

Change for February 2023

compared to February 2022

Change for March 2023

compared to March 2022

Change for February 2023

compared to February 2022

Change for February 2023

compared to February 2022

Change for the 12 months

to February 2023

Change for the 12 months

to February 2023

Change for the 12 months

to February 2023

1.80.317.9

3.21.4

%

Change for the 12 months

to March 2023

19.6

4.1

11.4

%

%

To view a table that shows
detailed milk collections in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%

%%

Season-to-date

1 July to 31 March

Season-to-date

1 June to 31 March

Season-to-date

1 June to 31 March

Season-to-date

1 June to 31 March

Change for March 2023

compared to March 2022

Change for March 2023

compared to March 2022

Change for March 2023

compared to March 2022

Change for March 2023

compared to March 2022

6.90.31.50.7

0.90.21.71.0

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY



















5

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Milk Collections

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

New Zealand Milk Collections

Fonterra's Australia

collections for March

were 8.5 million kgMS, a

6.9% increase from March

last season.

Collections increased

year-on-year as a result of

recruiting and retaining more

Australian dairy farmers

across Victoria and Tasmania.

Season-to-date collections

reached 82.4 million kgMS,

0.9% behind last season.

North Island milk

collections in March were

75.9 million kgMS, 1.5%

ahead of March last season.

Season-to-date collections

were 758.6 million kgMS,

1.7% behind last season.

The North Island continues

to see a good mixture of

weather supporting strong

milk supply.

North Island farms are well

set up for autumn with

strong pasture covers and

animal condition.

South Island milk

collections in March were

61.8 million kgMS, 0.3%

behind last March.

Season-to-date collections

were 525.3 million kgMS,

0.2% ahead of last season.

The South Island has

seen some good rain and

moderate temperatures with

more settled conditions.

The South Island continues

to benefit from the rainfall,

aiding in pasture recovery,

and good animal condition

should allow for a natural

wind down for the season.

Fonterra's New Zealand

collections for March were

137.8 million kgMS, 0.7%

higher than last March.

Season-to-date collections

were 1,284.0 million kgMS,

1.0% behind last season.

March weather was mixed

with intermittent rain and

warmer weather conducive

to strong pasture growing

conditions. Lower overnight

temperatures caused lower

milk production early in the

month, with a recovery and

flattening towards the end of

the month.

%%%

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%

%
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%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

APR  JUN SEP JAN  APR  AUG  FEB NOV 



, 

,

, 

,

,

.

.

.

.

.

.

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity prices and New Zealand

dollar trend

The recent turmoil witnessed across financial markets, due

to concerns over the health of the global banking sector,

receded over the past month as authorities moved to restore

confidence in the financial system. This ushered in a period

of relative stability across most financial markets, including

the NZD/USD exchange rate which did not deviate far from

62 to 63 US cents.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

18 April 2023:

The next trading event will be held on 2 May 2023. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

4.2

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

3,414

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

21.4

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 3,089/MT

1.2

WMP

USD 2,874/MT

10.4

SMP

USD 4,981/MT

5.2

AMF

USD 4,411/MT

5.8

CHEDDAR

USD 4,821/MT

4.9

BUTTER

21,388

MT

LATEST AUCTION

486,448

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
Our Performance

Methane JV "now open

for business"

Established in February,

the Centre for Climate

Action Joint Venture is now

open for business and has

appointed an experienced

Board of Directors, chaired

by Sir Brian Roche.

The JV is a world-first

investment fund established

to help pasture-based

farmers in Aotearoa

New Zealand reduce their

agricultural emissions by

30% by 2030. The JV’s role

is to help New Zealand

farmers by making sure they

have equitable access to

affordable and effective tools

and technology to cut their

methane and nitrous oxide

emissions, while maintaining

efficiency, production

and profitability.

The JV’s shareholders are

Fonterra, ANZCO Foods,

Rabobank, Ravensdown,

Silver Fern Farms, Synlait,

and the Government through

MPI. Fonterra will contribute

up to $50 million over the

next four years in a public

private partnership that’s

working to find a solution to

biogenic methane.

Together the partners

will contribute around

$35 million a year until

2025 with the Government

matching this contribution,

resulting in at least

$170 million invested over

this time.

In early April, the JV

made its first investment,

contributing $1.8 million

to Ruminant BioTech,

a New Zealand-based

start-up that is developing a

slow-release, biodegradable,

methane-inhibiting bolus.

Initial trials are promising,

indicating the potential to

reduce methane emissions

from pasture-fed cows by up

to 70% for up to six months.

The bolus is easily swallowed

by the cow, and then

biodegrades in the rumen.

Bolus’ are already in use on

New Zealand farms.

Joining Sir Brian Roche on

the Board are Jessie Chan,

Sir Neville Jordan,

Greg Murison and our

Co-op’s Chief Operating

Officer, Fraser Whineray.

Executive Director

Wayne McNee says the JV is

focused on getting tools into

farmers’ hands.

“Our shareholders are

committed to ensuring

the JV is commercially

led, informed by science,

and investing in and

developing practical tools

to reduce agricultural

emissions. We also

recognise the importance

of intergenerational

stewardship (kaitiakitanga)

of the land and the key role

te ao Maori beliefs, values

and aspirations will play in

the success of the JV.

“The JV must be a problem

solver and value creator.

Our shareholders have

invested in the JV because

it is working to solve the

emissions challenge for

our pasture-based farmers,

and because it has the

potential to be the world

leader in commercialising

emissions-reduction

solutions for pasture-based

farmers that can be sold in

New Zealand and globally.

“The JV is unique because

of the breadth of its sector

expertise and commercial

focus. New Zealand’s

pasture-based farming is also

unique, so we are working

to find tools that will work

for our farmers – investing

to help turbo-charge

innovations through to

commercialisation, taking

an equity stake in promising

new technologies to get

these tools into farmers’

hands faster, and helping

to remove any barriers to

farmers being able to use

these tools.”

Almost half of New Zealand’s

greenhouse gas emissions

come from agriculture,

which makes up 75% of

New Zealand’s goods

exports. Since agriculture

is the backbone of

New Zealand’s economy,

the importance of reducing

emissions in agriculture

cannot be understated.

Wayne McNee says, “our

global customers are setting

ambitious greenhouse gas

reduction targets, and if we

can’t meet these targets,

export revenue will be under

threat. We must confront

this reality, and I believe we

can meet the challenge.”

Fonterra Dairy Woman
of the Year

A fourth generation Taranaki

farmer, the Executive

Director of DCANZ, an

Ashburton farmer and a

former Northland Dairy

Manager of the Year winner

are the four finalists for the

2023 Fonterra Dairy Woman

of the Year award.

The award recognises an

outstanding woman who

has contributed to the dairy

sector with passion, drive,

innovation and leadership.

The finalists are Donna Cram,

Kimberly Crewther,

Rebecca Miller and

Sheena Penwarden.

The winner will be

announced at the Dairy

Women's Network annual

conference in Invercargill on

3 May.

New Zealand Dairy

Industry Awards

Fonterra farmers have

claimed more than three

quarters of the 2023 regional

New Zealand Dairy Industry

Awards titles.

24 of the 30 main awards

went to Fonterra farmers,

including a clean sweep of

the Share Farmer of the Year,

Dairy Manager of the Year

and Dairy Trainee of the Year

prizes in five of the 11 regions

(Waikato, Bay of Plenty,

Canterbury/North Otago,

Manawatu and Taranaki).

All 30 regional winners

now progress to another

judging round with the

overall New Zealand winners

announced at the National

Awards Dinner on May 13 in

Auckland. Also announced at

the National Awards Dinner

will be the recipient of the

2023 Fonterra Responsible

Dairying Award (the John

Wilson Memorial Trophy).

Celebrating

Success –

Awards

round up

Our Co-op

8

Meet the little site

in Taranaki behind

New Zealand’s

favourite cheese

Recently, cheese makers

from across the country

eagerly awaited the results of

the New Zealand Champions

of Cheese Awards.

More than 250 cheeses

were judged by a panel of

expert judges, and our Kapiti

and Mainland cheeses were

some of the favourites –

taking home an impressive

39 medals.

Our Fonterra Brands

New Zealand site on Bridge

Street has been in the Eltham

community making cheese

for over a century – including

beloved Kiwi brands like

Kapiti and Mainland.

The cheese which comes

from Bridge Street is special

because it is made by hand.

All except one of the gold

winning Kapiti specialty

cheeses are made at our site

on Bridge Street.

This includes Kapiti Bridge

Street Blue and Ash Brie,

which are both from the

new Kapiti Artisan range

cheeses – recently created

by our Master Cheese Maker

Cathy Lang.

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL 

JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES















EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR  FEB  JAN  DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s













AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT 

MT s

















AVERAGE

9


Supplementary Information

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to February; New Zealand and US to March.

NOTE: Data for EU, US and Australia to February; New Zealand to March.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa, Latin America to February; and China to March.

SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR

JAN

OCT FEB

JUL AUG MAY SEP NOV DEC JUN

,

,

,

,

,

,

,
,

,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT

QUANTITY SOLD  MT

10


Supplementary Information

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

MARCH

2023

MARCH


2022

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2022/23

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2021/22

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

137.8136.80.7%1,284.01,296.4(1.0%)

North Island75.974.81.5%758.6772.1(1.7%)

South Island61.862.0(0.3%)525.3524.30.2%

Australia8.57.96.9%82.483.1(0.9%)

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(18 APRIL 2023)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2022)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

21,388486,448

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

2.4%4.4%

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

3,4143,633

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

(30.5%)(17.4%)

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

4.2%–

Fonterra GDT results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

11
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

Cultured Products

Fermented milks that are

prepared by using starter

cultures and controlled

fermentation including

yoghurt, yoghurt drinks, sour

cream, crème fraiche.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

MEA

Middle East Africa.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products,

except for Reference

Products, produced

by the New Zealand

Ingredients business.

NZMP

New Zealand Milk Products.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.


Glossary

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate.

WPI

Whey Protein Isolate.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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