Capital Markets Day 2023 Presentation
1
Capital Markets Day / 2023
29 May 2023
Disclaimer and important information
EBITDAF, free cash flow and operating free cash flow are financial measures that are
“non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting practice) financial information” under
Guidance Note 2017: ‘Disclosing non-GAAP financial information’ published by the
New Zealand Financial Markets Authority, “non-IFRS financial information” under
ASIC Regulatory Guide 230: ‘Disclosing non-IFRS financial information’ and “non-
GAAP financial measures” within the meaning of Regulation G under the U.S.
Exchange Act of 1934.
Such financial information and financial measures (including EBITDAF, free cash flow
and operating free cash flow) do not have standardised meanings prescribed under
New Zealand equivalents to International Financial Reporting Standards (“NZ IFRS”),
Australian Accounting Standards (“AAS”) or International Financial Reporting
Standards (“IFRS”) and therefore, may not be comparable to similarly titled measures
presented by other entities, and should not be construed as an alternative to other
financial measures determined in accordance with NZ IFRS, AAS or IFRS accounting
practice) measures. Information regarding the usefulness, calculation and
reconciliation of these measures is provided in the supporting material.
This presentation does not constitute financial or investment advice. This
presentation does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy,
Contact securities and may not be relied on in connection with any purchase of a
Contact security.
Numbers in the presentation have not all been rounded and might not appear to add.
All references to $ are New Zealand dollar unless stated otherwise.
Alltrademarks, service marks andcompany namesare thepropertyoftheir
respective owners. All company, product and service names used in this presentation
are for identification purposes only. Use of these names, trademarks and brands
does not imply endorsement or that they are or will be customers of Contact and
reflectspublic announcements of intention only.
While all reasonable care has been taken in compiling this presentation,
neither Contact nor any of its directors, employees, shareholders nor any
other person gives any representation as to the accuracy or completeness
of this information or accepts any liability for any errors or omissions.
This presentation may contain certain forward-looking statements with
respect to a variety of matters. All such forward-looking statements involve
known and unknown risks, significant uncertainties, assumptions,
contingencies, and other factors, many of which are outside the control of
Contact, which may cause the actual results or performance of Contact to
be materially different from any future results or performance expressed or
implied by such forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking
statements speak only as of the date of this presentation. Except as
required by law or regulation (including the NZX Listing Rules and the ASX
Listing Rules), Contact undertakes no obligation to update these forward-
looking statements for events or circumstances that occur subsequent to
the date of this presentation or to update or keep current any of the
information contained herein. Any estimates or projections as to events that
may occur in the future (including projections of revenue, expense, net
income and performance) are based upon the best judgement of Contact
from the information available as of the date of this presentation.
Agenda
Presenters
Topic
Welcomeand introduction
Decarboniseour portfolio
External presentation: Climate imperative
Morning tea
Grow demand
Fireside chat: Customer perspective
Grow renewable development
Breakout sessions: Wind and Solar
Lunch
Create outstandingcustomerexperiences
Panel discussion: Enabling our strategy
Major projects execution
Disciplined investment; growing returns
Tauhara and TeHukasite visits
Matt Bolton
Louise Wright, John Clark, Jan Bibby, Chris Abbott, Tighe Wall
Jack Ariel
Dorian Devers
Dorian Devers
Andy Sibley, Nathan Jones (NZ Steel)
Jacqui Nelson
Matthew Cleland, Adam Pegg(Lightsourcebp)
James Flannery, Paul Botha (Roaring40s)
Mike Fuge
Chris Abbott
Phillip Benedetti (Boston Consulting Group)
4
Mike Fuge
CEO
Welcomeand
introduction
5
Jacqui Nelson
Chief Development
Officer
Executive team presenting today
Mike Fuge
Chief Executive
Officer
John Clarke
Chief Generation
Officer
Matt Bolton
Chief Retail Officer
Dorian Devers
Chief Financial
Officer
Chris Abbott
Chief Corporate
Affairs Officer
Jan Bibby
Chief People
Experience Officer
Tighe Wall
Chief Digital Officer
Jack Ariel
Major Projects
Director
Executive not present today: Iain Gauld, Chief Information Officer
6
We are on track to deliver on our promises
With channel yields indicating an increase in normalised EBITDAF
FY23 performance year to date
Our performance, year to date, has reflected soft wholesale
market conditions driven by unprecedented hydro inflows.
•North Island hydro inflows since 1 July 2022 have been the wettest
on record. If daily inflows continue in line with the current trend,
FY23 national inflows will be the highest of any post-market year.
1
These conditions have led to:
•lower wholesale spot prices than anticipated by futures pricing at
the start of the year,
•lower thermal generation, and
•higher price separation between North and South Islands.
This has limited our ability to generate margin from our contracted thermal
fuel position.
Retail channel yields, which are above expectations, suggest an increase in
normalised EBITDAF going forward.
1
Based on post-market data up to 24 May 2023.
2
See slide 40 of the 2023 interim results presentation for assumptions underpinning FY23 normalised and expected earnings.
3
See slide 27 of the 2023 interim results presentation for assumptions underpinning our FY23 estimated EBITDAF. This excludes a $120 million (before tax) onerous contract provision for AGS.
FY23 EBITDAF
Normalised and
expected
2
$550million
FY23 EBITDAF
Estimated given
known factors
3
$530million
7
FY23
highlights to
date
Final investment
decision
Launched a leading
parental leave policy
Growing your
Whānau
Joined the
Dow Jones Sustainability
Asia Pacific Index
(DJSI Asia-Pacific)
94%
1
completion of
Tauhara
Resource consent gained
to continue operations at
Wairakei geothermal field
for the next 35 years
Issued $550m of
green bonds
Launched new plan
for EV owners
Dream Charge
Energy Retailer
of the Year Award
August 2022
Selected to deliver
150MW solar farm
atKōwhaiPark through
a joint venture with
TeHukaIII
1
As at 30 April 2023.
8
We are deep in the execution of our strategy
to lead New Zealand’s decarbonisation
Enablers
Transformative ways of working:
create a flexible and high-performing
environment for New Zealand’s top talent
Outcomes
Growth
Pivot our business to a new growth era that
captures the value unlocked by decarbonisation
Resilience
Deliver sustainable shareholder returns,
aligned with our ESG commitment
Performance
Realise a step-change in performance, materially
growing EBITDAF through strategic investments
Strategic
theme
Objective
Grow
demand
Attract new industrial demand with
globally competitive renewables
Grow renewable
development
Build renewable generation and
flexibility on the back of new demand
Decarbonise
our portfolio
Lead an orderly transition
to renewables
Create outstanding
customer experiences
Create NZ's leading energy and services
brand to meet more of our customers’ needs
Operational excellence:
continuously improving our operations
through innovation and digitisation
ESG: create long-term value through our strong
performance across a broad set of environmental,
social and governance factors
9
Mau
Taniwha
MauriOra
Mau tūmārō
Be persistant
and determined
Mau teronga
Arrive at a place
of clarity
Mauri ora
Allow wellbeing
to flourish
Mau taniwha
Harness the
energy
Pushing
forward
The
circular/koru
form like a still
bay, unfolding
frond.
The hand
holding the tail,
harnessing the
taniwha
The hand to
the mouth –
sustenance/
food for the
soul
What’s driving us and
how we think about
delivery
10
Growing renewables development:
a key component of Contact26
NZ’s Engineeringand constructionmarket was close to capacity and all
indications were that demand would substantially increase for the next decade
Tauharacost and schedule would beimpacted by uncontrolled
externalities. Action needed to mitigate potential delays and costs
After 10 years of no major capital project activity and running as “mean
and lean”, Contact needed to rapidly ramp up required capabilities
With plans to deliver new asset classes (wind, solar, storage),
Contact would need to build new capabilities to supplement geothermal
Contact’sdeep expertise in geothermal
needed to be deployed effectively
How were
we placed
to deliver?
11
We took action: Major Projects, key partnerships
and continued to build on this unique capability
Immediate
action:
Step change
in capability
Growth:
Evolve organisation
and continue to
grow capabilities
Major Projects office
established and Director
appointed April 2021
Clear visionfor Major Projects
including integration with development
and roadmap for execution
Capital
allocation
Aligned organisation
on portfolio growth
and risk appetite
Project
development
Design
optimisation
Contracting and
procurement
Integrated project
execution and
commissioning
Enablers: Organisation,
processes, mindsets and
capabilitybuilding
Established solar JV with
Lightsourcebpand wind development
partnership with Roaring40s
12
Significant investment programme on track
TeHuka3Tauhara
$1.18bn
1
1.9TWh
225MW
GeoFuture
3
1
Includes sunk costs. Excludes capitalised interest.
2
As at 30 April 2023.
3
Subject to Board Final Investment Decision.
4
Expect to commit to this expenditure over the next few months.
Q4 2023
Q4 2024
Expect to invest ~10% total costs pre-FID
4
Spend
2
:
Delivering world class geothermal developments
2H 2026
On stream:
~$100m
1
~$700m
1
13
We now have even greater ambitions
for the delivery of Contact26
Strategic pillar
FY27 ambitions
Decarbonise
our portfolio
Grow demand
Grow renewables
development
Create outstanding
customer experiences
Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions run-rate of ~300ktCO
2
e, putting us well
on track to our 2035 net zero commitment.
Renewable flexibility strategy to reduce reliance on thermal peaking.
Facilitate 100MW of new demand.
Reach 100MW total Demand Flex and start pivoting to Demand Response.
New green chemical channel established contributing incremental EBITDAF.
Grow to 10.3TWh p.aof renewable assets from geothermal new build, solar and wind.
100MW battery operational.
Greater than 685k connections.
CTS at global benchmark of <$80/ connection.
Grow EBITDAF contribution from non-energy lines of business by 3x.
Top quartile NZ Business for Sustainability survey
1
and most Trusted Energy brand
2
.
And we have committed to reach net zero (Scope 1&2) by 2035
1
As measured by Kantar Better Futures survey.
2
As measured by Contact’s independently surveyed brand tracker.
14
Chris Abbott
Chief Corporate Affairs Officer
Decarbonise
our portfolio
15
Launch: what we said we’d do
Progress
Confirmed TCC willrun its remaining operating
hours with no further upgrades.
Facilitate an orderly transition to renewables
Decarbonise our portfolio
Decommission TCC.
Lead NZ's’ thermal portfolio structure to ensure it can support security of electricity supply through the
energy transition at the lowest possible cost to consumers.
On trackSome delayMajor delay / concerns
TCC is decommissioned.
Reduced GHG emissions by 45%.
Thermal assets moved to aligned ownership model.
A
B
Launch: ambitions for 2026
On track to <450ktCO
2
e by CY25, beating our
2026 SBTI target of 648ktCO
2
e.
Limited by industry appetite. Contact to manage
its thermal assets through the energy transition,
playing a key role in system security.
16
The case for orderly thermal substitution remains
compelling ensuring security and affordability
Government sets
ambitious targets
Gas availability
constrained
More focus on
supply security
Recent volatility
of carbon price
Government’s first
Emissions Reduction Plan
released. Targeting 50% of
New Zealand energy
consumption sourced from
renewable electricity by 2035.
NZ Battery Project evaluation
continues –includes portfolio
solution. No bipartisan
support for Lake Onslow.
Gas Transition Plan to be
released in mid 2023.
Gas field declinesand
new drilling campaigns
announced.
Volatility in gas
storage capacity.
Resulting in less flexibility.
Marginal cost of gas
electricity production now at
$150/MWh. This is above
long run average wholesale
price expectations.
Blackouts of 9 August2021
triggered Government
investigation.
EA review of security of
supply for winter 2023 will
implementbetter information
disclosure and forecasting.
MDAG options paper proposes
market mechanisms to improve
security of supply in a 100%
renewable electricity system.
Carbon costs up ~$20/NZU
since May 2021.
Peaked at $85in
November2022.
Government moved away
from CCC advice on carbon
price settings.
First ever failure of ETS
(carbon) auction in March 2023.
ETS review announced.
Variation within thermal
asset management plans
2 YEARS
Contact introduced ThermalCo
model for consultation. No
consolidated view was agreed.
Risk management product offered
by largest thermal electricity
producer received little take-up.
Contact to retire TeRapa (2023).
TCC to run its operating hours (no
further major investment).
No other thermal plant closures
announced in the wider market.
17
Contact has a clear path towards
a long-term thermal asset solution
Otahuhu closed in 2015
Market testing of ThermalCosolution concluded
Thermal asset review now complete
TeRapa confirmed closure June 2023
TCC to run out its operating hours with no new investment
Peakersto be retained, medium term, to assist orderly transition
without threatening stable, affordable electricity supply
Peakersfire up quickly to meet urgent, short-lived peak demand
With Otahuhu, TeRapa and expected TCC closures, Contact’s
emissions will have reduced by 70% over 10 years
Demand
Flexibility
in place with C&I.
Rollout to retail
Battery
Energy Storage
System
BESS FID in FY24
Renewable
development
10.3TWh total
renewables
(geothermal, wind,
solar) by end of FY27
Product
innovations &
pricing plans
Good Nights,
Dream Charge+
Changing consumer
behaviour
Orderly retirement
of baseload gas
generation
Horizon
Contact’s
solutions to
enable eventual
peaking plant
retirement
Horizon
18
12 month targets (FY24)Key initiatives
TeRapa closure.
TCC retirement.
NCG reinjection at TeHuka,
TeHuka3, Poihipi.
Carbon offsets via afforestation
on Contact-owned land.
DJSI acceleration programme –
covering human rights, hazardous
waste, embedding ESG in our
supply chain.
Battery solution fit for portfolio.
Net zero roadmaps agreed
(Scope 1 and 2).
Investment plans for
further carbon offsets.
Final Investment Decision
on BESS (battery).
Sustained entry into
the DJSI.
Execution: two years on, what does delivery look like?
Facilitate an orderly transition to renewables
Decarbonise our portfolio
ADVANCED
AMBITIONS (FY27)
Scope 1 and 2 GHG net
emissions run-rate of
~300ktCO2e, putting us
well on track to our 2035
net zero commitment.
Renewable flexibility
strategy to reduce reliance
on thermal peaking.
19
Our pathway to Net Zero for
Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2035
Note: Analysis is based on FY22 actual scope 1 and 2 emissions (indicative of mean year generation). Utilisation of the Peakerswill vary over future years depending on hydro sequences
and new technologies. Expected net impact of the Wairakei replacement, involving plans for carbon capture, is included in the second tranche of “capturing orreinjecting carbon”.
1
Includes expected units from DrylandcarbonOne Limited Partnership and Forest Partners Limited Partnership. Units are shown per annum and are based on current information and may
fluctuate based on climate conditions and/or regulatory updates.
788
299
92
Long term thermal
strategy implemented
Capturing or
reinjecting carbon
-207
FY22 scope 1
& 2 emissions
New emissions (Tauhara
& Te Huka unit 3)
-287
-36
-51
Forestry partners
units received
1
Run rate net
emissions at FY27
-128
Forestry partners
units received
1
-148
Capturing or
reinjecting carbon
-189
Additional initiatives
being assessed
Current emission breakdown
(ktCO
2
e)
Decarbonisation pathway
(ktCO
2
e)
TCC
TeRapa
SBTI FY26 target
648 ktCO
2
e
20
Geothermal CO
2
capture will evolve baseload
renewable generation from low-to no-carbon
Successful CO
2
capture trial at TeHuka
Two units at TeHukatogether
generate around 24MW.
Fully functioning CO
2
(NCG)
reinjection system now
operational on both plants.
Currently capturing and
reinjecting ~10k tCO
2
e of
emissions p.a. and dissolving
into water that is then
reinjected in the reservoir.
Emissions across Contact’s current geothermal portfolio (FY22)
tCO
2
e | gCO
2
/KWh
Poihipi
TeMihi
TeHuka
Ohaaki
Wairakei
13k | 38
55k | 40
10k | 53
85k | 266
19k | 18
(To be replaced)
Tauhara
~80k | ~50
TeHuka3
~13k | ~30
Under construction
After a successful trial at TeHuka,we’re now developing a pathway to apply carbon capture technology
across existing and planned plants
21
Showing clear leadership in responsible
decarbonisationof NZ’s electricity supply
By investing to displace baseload thermal generation at TeRapa and TCC and innovating
to reduce NZ’s reliance on fast start peakersfor system security
FY12
FY22
FY27
5387>95
>168<5
2,213
2
788~300
39
11~2
3
FY18
79
8
1,177
18
Output from renewable generation (%)
Revenue from thermal generation (%)
1
Gas used in generation (PJ)
GHG emissions Scope 1&2 (ktCO
2
e)
1
Pool revenue from thermal generation over Contact’s total reported sales.
2
Estimate based on gas used in generation and geothermal portfolio carbon emissions rates.
3
In a mean hydrology year.
22
Phillip Benedetti
Managing Director and Partner
Boston Consulting Group
External presentation
Climate imperative
23
Morning tea
24
Dorian Devers
CFO
Grow
demand
25
Launch: what we said we’d do
Progress
Supported 50MW new-to-market demand in lower SI.
Completed assessment of hydrogen economics.
NZAS discussions underway.
Develop NZ’s hydrogen and green chemical industry.
Electrify industrial process heat.
On trackSome delayMajor delay / concerns
Identify +300 MW demand in the
South Island to replace NZAS.
100 MW of new industrial demand
supplied by Contact.
Extensive electrification project pipeline.
100 MW+ of flexible demand.
A
B
Electrify space heating.
C
Attract data centres with clean electricity.
D
Facilitate decarbonisation of NZ road transport.
E
Attract new industrial demand with globally competitive renewables
Grow demand
F
Lead the market in demand flexibility.
Launch: ambitions for 2026
New demand for renewable electricity from Genesis realised
through Tauhara-backed PPA. Data centres evolving.
Evolving the electrification pipeline through innovation and
partnership e.g. 30 MW off-peak supply to NZ Steel.
80 MW+ of flexible demand.
26
Demand outlook for electricity improving
Conditions improved
for NZAS to stay
Large scale data
centre developments
underway
Economics for major
electricity users
improved
Decarbonisation
of transport
gaining pace
Aluminium smelting
economics have
rapidly improved.
Rio Tinto has announced
rapid decarbonisation
targets.
Tiwai smelter produces
high quality, low
carbon aluminium.
Bilateral discussions
underway for post 2024
supply arrangements.
Datacentres looking to be built
in NZ with ‘additionality’ rules.
Attractive baseload
characteristics.
Low emission customers.
Hyperscale data centre pipeline
announced e.g. CDC, DCI,
Microsoft, Amazon.
More than 100MW capacity
due to be added by 2024.
Elevation of carbon
and fossil fuel prices
from 2021 levels.
Stronger financial positions
on the back of commodity
price increases.
Increase in GIDI funding to
$650m over four years.
Volatility driving users to
longer term supply
agreements / PPA.
Increasing uptake of EVs
–15% of all registrations
in March 2023
1.
Greater government willingness
to provide direct subsidies
e.g. Clean Car rebate scheme.
Technology advancement
enabling options for heavy
transport.
Domestic opportunity for green
chemicals in a range of hard to
abate sectors, including transport.
Demand flexibility
now a key part of
system transition
Demand response is
introduced wherever possible
when entering into new
supply contracts.
Will contribute to
decarbonisationof NZ whilst
improving the security
of supply at peak periods.
High degree of customer
appetite for demand response
mechanisms to be packaged
into new contracts.
Contact has unique demand
flex capabilities through its
Simply Energy subsidiary
1
EVs” includes the number of electric vehicle registrations for March 2023 as reported by Waka Kotahi. This is inclusive of battery electric (3,076), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) Petrol (734) and PHEV Diesel (0)
Decarbonisation ambitions and thermal economics will support growth.
2 YEARS
27
12 month targets (FY24)Key initiatives
Execution: two years on, what does delivery look like?
ADVANCED
AMBITIONS (FY27)
NZAS agreement extension.
Electrification of industrial process
heat –NZ Steel furnace and other
boiler conversions.
Facilitate other demand growth
opportunities –including data
centre developments.
Pursue Green Chemical
opportunities –H2 & CO2,
with transport focus.
Demand Response proposition.
Conclude NZAS extension
negotiations with improved
long-term pricing.
Positive FID for one
Green Chemical deal.
Facilitate at least 25MW of
new demand.
Facilitate 100MW of new
demand.
Reach 100MW total Demand
Flex and start pivoting to
Demand Response.
New green chemical channel
established contributing
incremental EBITDAF.
Attract new industrial demand with globally competitive renewables
Grow demand
28
Key partnerships to advance demand growth
Large scale data centres
Major industrial energy users
Green chemicals
Industrial process heat
Road transport
Entered into 10-year renewable energy agreement
with Microsoft on new geothermal power station at
TeHuka(renewable energy attributes).
Supported around 50MW of new-to-market
lower South Island electricity demand.
Demand flex arrangements with key participants,
e.gOpen Country Dairy and Alliance.
Working with BOC, a Linde company, to assess highest value
commercial options for C0
2
captured at geothermal facilities.
Long term Tauhara backed PPAs: Genesis, Oji Fibre and Pan Pac.
Sold a structured 30MW 10-year hedge to NZ Steel for its new Electric Arc Furnace.
Working with the HW Richardson Group to assess
a trial use of hydrogen for heavy transport.
Contact has developed a view of relative netbacks across applications and
will focus on those of highest value
Contact is focused
on the highest value
sources of new
demand, spanning
five key areas
29
SupportingNZ Steel’s decarbonisation initiative to install an Electric Arc Furnace
Key features
•Contact has sold a 30MW 10-year hedge to NZ
Steel for its new Electric Arc Furnace (EAF).
•Contract is effective from the commissioning of
the EAF and no earlier than December 2025.
•30MW load in summer (October to February)
fixed across all periods.
•“Off-peak” sale in winter, excluding morning
and evening peaks (March to September).
•Innovative financial solution to unlock
decarbonisation in light of rising peak price
volatility.
•Resulted from working in close partnership to
understand the needs of key customer.
Contact’s fixed price sales position over “Winter”
(March –September, Peak periods are excluded 7 days a week)
Morning peak
Evening peak
MW
30 MW
4
Hours
4
Hours
Contact has partnered with NZ Steel
to develop an innovative supply arrangement
Value to NZ Steel
•Lower price of electricity.
•Will produce “new” steel from scrap
and massively reduce coal
consumption.
•Enables reduction in carbon coal
emissions by at least 800 ktCO
2
e p.a.
Value to Contact
•Supports Contact’s shift to a greater
mix of must-run summer renewables.
•Contact captures value by retaining
exposure to peak volatility in winter.
Winter supply to NZ Steel
30
Green chemical pathway at geothermal
ImportsDomestic
production
Current
national +
potential
hothouse
demand
Historical
Refinery
production
Ohaaki
CO
2
Horizon II: eFuels
Possible options from CO
2
and green hydrogen
Horizon I: Industrial grade CO
2
Estimated volumes. ktpa
Inputs and outputs
Electrolysis using generation and water
eSAF
ePetroland eDiesel
eMethanol
Geothermal
generation
+
Water
Oxygen
O
2
Green
Hydrogen
H
2
Carbon
Dioxide
CO
2
Opportunities from our success in geothermal carbon capture include the purification and
sale of industrial grade CO
2
(HorizonI) and subsequent eFuelapplications (HorizonII)
50
30
20
20
45
65
31
Andy Sibley
CEO
Simply Energy
Nathan Jones
General Counsel
NZ Steel
Fireside chat
Customer perspective
32
Grow renewable
development
Jacqui Nelson
Chief Development Officer
33
Launch: what we said we’d do
Launch: ambitions for 2026Progress
Wairākeireplacement consented. GeoFuture,
wind and solar all proceeding to FID.
Lithium prices continue to fall improving the
economics of large scale batteries.
Will be operational in Q4 2023 with
22MW higher capacity than at FID. TeHuka
operational Q4 2024. Combined capacity of 225MW.
Build Tauhara to extend our geothermal capacity.
Grow our generation footprint through Wairākeigeothermal replacement, and/or wind and solar.
Wairākeireplaced with most efficient combination
of geothermal, wind, solar & batteries.
Large scale batteries deployed.
Tauhara is online.
A
B
Deploy large scale batteries.
C
Build renewable generation and flexibility on the back of new demand
Grow renewable development
On trackSome delayMajor delay / concerns
34
NZ development environment has shifted
with geothermal becoming more competitive
Development
announcements
prominent
Construction
environment
constrained
Technology
cost curves
turned
Battery economics
have been
challenging
Entry of solar developers
in the NZ market. Transpower now
estimates ~7GW solar by end of this
decade.
Of the >5GW renewable pipeline
announced by NZ’s top 5 generators,
about 60% is early-stage.
Little underway from independent
developers due to market challenges.
Potential for offshore wind being
explored.
Limited appetite for
EPC contracts.
Reduced immigration
leading to constraints
on skilled labour pool.
Global supply chain
challenges.
Elevated commodity
prices.
Lead up to 2021 saw a
significant cost curve reduction
across wind and solar.
Europe is now weaning off
Russia, with renewables
demand keeping prices higher.
Cost of firming has risen.
Geothermal (which is
baseload) is now more
competitive.
Lithium iron phosphate
batteries remain the
technology of choice for
grid-scale battery storage.
Lithium carbonate input
costs surged from the start
of 2021, increasing more
than tenfold by late 2022.
Now rapidly receding.
Forward wholesale
electricity prices
elevated
2 YEARS
And we have seen a raft of early-stage announcements
Thermal costs are higher
and set to stay high.
ASX Futures pricing at
Otahuhu remains at ~
$170/MWh through 2026.
Contact’s long run
price expectation is
$100-110/MWh (2022 real).
Signal to build renewables
remains strong.
35
12 monthtargets (FY24)Key initiatives
1
Execution: two years on, what does delivery look like?
ADVANCED
AMBITIONS (FY27)
Geothermal: GeoFuture
delivering 0.4TWh incremental
uplift from 2H 2026.
Solar: Kowhai Park delivering
0.3TWh by 1H 2025.
North Island solar delivering
0.3TWh by 1H 2026.
Wind: Southland Wind Farm
delivering between 0.9 –1.2TWh p.a.
Batterysolution fit for portfolio.
Achieve FID for GeoFuture
and Kowhai Park solar.
On track FID for North
Island solar.
On track FID for wind.
Tauhara operational Q4
2023.
Final Investment Decision
on BESS (battery).
Grow to 10.3TWh p.aof
renewable assets from
geothermal new build,
solar and wind.
100MW battery
operational.
Build renewable generation and flexibility on the back of new demand
Grow renewable development
1
Key initiatives are subject to FID.
36
A unique capability to develop
renewable generation
1
Of the large-scale geothermal operators in New Zealand: Mercury and Contact.
Geothermal Wind
Solar
Operational experience on the
world’s second longest electricity producing
geothermal field (Wairākei, since 1958).
Developed dedicated, internationally-recognised,
subsurface team and continued R&D to lower
the cost of operations.
We believe we’re New Zealand’slowest
cost geothermal operator
1.
Ownership of Western Energy, a leading provider
of specialist well solutions offering services
around the world.
Partnership with Roaring40s with key staff
having experience delivering nine operational
wind farms in New Zealand (totalling 500MW).
Deep knowledge of New Zealand’s undeveloped
wind sites totalingin excess of 2,000MWthat have
not yet beenconstructed.
Compliments Contact’s previous wind experience
and own ability to incorporate and trade wind
developments into the market.
Partnered with Lightsourcebp, recently
named largest solar developer in the world.
Lightsourcebp has developed 8.4GW of solar,
has a global development pipeline of 55GW and
operatesin 19 regions globally, resulting in
strong connections into solar supply chains.
Contact brings its position as a creditworthy
counterparty to support a Power Purchase
Agreement (PPA) –a major hurdle to securing
project finance and de-risking a project.
37
1.4
0.3
0.9
4.6
0.4
0.3
1.4
0.7
FY27
-1.1
Wairakei
decommissioning
Current renewable
generation
1
7.2
10.7
Wind
7.2
Solar
6.1
Additional geothermal
10.3Wh FY27 target
Additional
Tauhara
capacity
Contact is targeting renewable generation
“Current” net of
Wairākei
decommissioning
GeoFuture
2
TeHuka Unit 3
Tauhara
North Island solar
Kowhai Park
Southland wind farm
1
Based on FY22 renewable generation volumes.
2
The net additional output from GeoFutureillustrated here is 0.4TWh as previously indicated to the market (bars do not appear to add to 0.4TWh due to rounding).
(end of)
10.3TWh by end of FY27, from 7.2TWh in FY22
Note: Solar, wind and GeoFutureprojects are subject to FID from the Board, with final capacity to be confirmed at FID. Solar and wind are subject to consenting outcomes.
38
Contact is ramping up Southland wind project
Launching application for resource consent in 2023, targeting generation online in FY27
Location
30km southeast of Gore within the
Southland District.
Transmission
Connection is to 220KV Transpower line between
Invercargill and Dunedin.
Preferred Grid Injection Point location and
transmission route is being finalised with the
directly affected landowners.
Connection application to Transpower accepted
and in the queue.Design process underway.
Site
Majority of wind farm located on two properties -
Jedburgh Station (pastoral farm) and Venlaw
Forest (pine plantation).
Total wind farm area ~5500 ha.
Consenting
Undertaking site investigations and design towards
preparation of resource consent application to be
lodged in second half of 2023.
Resource consent process will allow for wind
turbine optionality during procurement negotiations.
Resource / indicative output
Approximately 50 turbines.
Available turbine options in the market
range from 4.2MW to 6.6MW.
Modelled wind resource of 9 m/s average.
Generation range anticipated to be
~900 –1200 GWh/annum.
Anticipated life 60 years (with repowering
of turbines at 30 years).
39
.
Contact and Lightsource bp partnership
Selected as preferred developer of KōwhaiPark solar farm (stage 1)
Location
Adjacent to Christchurch Airport (CIAL).
Foundation for the KōwhaiPark energy hub.
Potential for future electricity demand growth /
decarbonisationinnovation at CIAL.
Transmission
Near major load centre.
Connection to strong part of Orion’s distribution
network.
Reduced reliance on Transpower, supporting
development timeframes.
New connection designed to accommodate solar
farm and future loads.
Site
CIAL and Environment Canterbury land parcels.
~300Ha of usable land for solar development.
Consenting
Foundational project (solar farm and upgraded transmission
capacity) supporting future green aviation initiatives.
Consenting strategy and aviation approvals have been
significantly advanced.
Resource / indicative output
Bifacial PV panels mounted on single axis trackers.
Preliminary layouts propose 150MWac project (170MW).
Generation of ~289GWh p.a.
Life of 35 years.
40
A range of plant capacity options
being assessed (net export to grid)
Open to a range of technologies to
best optimise the resource
Expected spend of total
development costs before FID
3
GeoFutureproceeding to FID
Indicative development timeline
160 to
180MW
Binary
or Steam
Turbine
$5.3 to
$5.7m / MW
~10%
Contact to proceed with plans to replace WairākeiA&B legacy geothermal
power stations with TeMihi Stage 2 (GeoFuture)
Anticipated total project costs
GeoFutureinvestment parameters
2
Balance sheet prepared, enabling
investment option to proceed fully funded
Wairakei consents
granted to operate
for next 35 years
Dec 22
Reservoir and Drilling
Assessment, Power
Station Tender
Process and Business
case development
2023
Final Investment
Decision (FID)
End
2023 / Early
2024
Construction
2025-2026
June 2026
Plant online
2H2026
Operationalsteamfield
discharges from Wairākei
A&B cease
1
1
As per consent requirements.
2
Subject to Board Final Investment Decision.
3
Expect to commit to this expenditure over the next few months.
41
Paul Botha
Director
Roaring40s
Breakout sessions
James Flannery
GM Strategy
Solar
Matt Cleland
Head of Wind
and Solar
Adam Pegg
Managing Director
Australia and NZ
Lightsourcebp
Wind
42
Lunch break
43
Create outstanding
customer experiences
Matt Bolton
Chief Retail Officer
44
Launch: what we said we’d do
Launch: ambitions for 2026Progress
Energy Retailer of the Year in August ’22.
Create NZ's leading energy sustainability brand that
will support renewable development ambitions
Create outstanding
customer experiences
Continue to improve our customer experience.
Add decarbonisation and adjacent products.
On trackSome delayMajor delay / concerns
Top 10 ‘most trusted retailer’ by 2026
1.
+650,000 customer connections by 2026.
Lowest cost to serve energy retailer,
CTS < $90 per connection
2
.
A
B
Decrease our cost to serve through simplification, growing connections and developing a strong digital platform.
C
1
As per Colmar Brunton Rep Track report, 2020 ranked 38
th
.
2
Rebased for operating cost reclassifications in FY22.
Customer connections now >580,000, an increase
of >57,000 since FY21.
Digitisation programme continues to unlock both cost
to serve improvements and increases in NPS.
45
A competitive market, customer expectations
and the environment continue to change
Growing importance
of the Home
Energy usage and
patterns changing
Challenges of
rising costs
Sustainability
(and decarbonisation)
expectations building
Highly competitive
retail energy and
telco market
Wide range of market
players (despite
consolidation).
Very competitive pricing
(despite rising costs).
More movements into
complementary products.
New propositions
emerging at pace.
Post covid new norms.
A happy home even
more important to
New Zealanders.
Energy consumption
reshaped as we spend
more time at home.
9-5 office model disrupted.
Household demand to
grow (& pattern change)
with EV transition.
Customers open to
time-shift energy
consumption for value.
Interest & growth in solar /
batteries building, aligned
to cost and control drivers.
Forward wholesale electricity
prices up from $133/MWh
to $174MWh.
1
High inflation and recession
impacting households.
Energy hardship a
growing concern, and
energy wellbeing a focus.
Bundling helps deliver value.
Concerns with climate
change continue to grow –
exacerbated with recent
major weather events.
People looking for
businesses & government
to provide solutions and
are supporting brands
doing the right thing.
2 YEARS
1
Source: EMI quarterly long dated Otahuhu forward curve prices.
46
Our recent delivery confirms
FY27 targets are well within reach
FY22FY20FY21FY23E
505k
523k
574k
585k
+16%
Growing total connections
FY20FY21
125k
114k
FY22FY23E
72k
93k
+74%
Growing multi-product customers
$117
$126
FY20FY21FY22FY23E
$104
$115
+21%
Growing returns (Elec Netback $/MWh)
2
Growing Contact brand trust
1
Growing our products
FY22FY21
33
FY20FY23E
30
38
43
+10
Growing customer net promoter score
Good Nights
proposition
Wireless
broadband
Investigating next
adjacency
Jun-21Jun-22Mar-23
5
th
=3
rd
=2
nd
=
+3
1
Brand Trust Ranking vs NZ energy retailers.
2
Note Electricity Netback is at ICP level, and includes prior year operating expense allocations restated to ensure like for likecomparison.
Contact
Dynamic Load
Control
Contact
Mobile
47
12 month targets (FY24)Key initiatives
Execution: two years on, what does delivery look like?
ADVANCED
AMBITIONS (FY27)
Reshaping product and
pricing architecture.
Targeted activity to drive
connections growth.
New product delivery.
Business and process
simplification & digitisation
to continue to reduce Cost to
Serve.
Electricity net price up by >5%.
Greater than 615k connections.
Market leading cost to serve
per connection down a further
5%.
Significantly grow non-energy
gross margin.
Further expansion of “It’s good
to be home” brand position.
Greater than 685k connections.
CTS at global benchmark of
<$80/ connection.
Grow EBITDAF contribution
from non-energy lines of
business by 3x
Top quartile NZ Business for
Sustainability survey
1
and most
Trusted Energy brand.
2
Create NZ's leading energy sustainability brand that
will support renewable development ambitions
Create outstanding
customer experiences
1
As measured by Kantar Better Futures survey.
2
As measured by Contact’s independently surveyed brand tracker.
48
Our digital and data capability
Transforming our cost to serve and pricing strategy
Data Driven
pricing strategy
Digital services:
Transforming our
cost to serve
1,437
H1FY20H1FY21H1FY22H1FY23
1,415
1,699
1,870
+32%
Customer per contact centre FTE
Digital share of interactions (%)
+31%
While
bringing
incremental
value
Focused on
digital journeys
and customer
adoption
Delivering
step-change
efficiency
transformation
Lowest cost platform:
$122
$160
$190
$236
Cost to serve / connection (1H FY23)
1
Peer 1
Peer 2
Peer 3
Homogenous regional level pricing
decisions limiting cost recovery and
increasing churn risk.
Manual processes result in low capture
rate (<50% of connections) resulting in
inability to recover rising input costs.
ICP level profitability data driving targeted
pricing decisions that are increasing retail
margins.
Leveraging automation and advanced AI-
powered models to increase pace and scale
of pricing activity (>80% of connections).
Dynamic AI-led pricing strategy enabling
real time cost recovery and margin growth
at a customer level.
Predictive churn modelling embedded,
enabling personalisedoffers to drive multi-
product growth and increased tenure.
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
Non-digital channelsDigital Interactions
78%
47%
Regional –15 decisionsLocal –50 pricing decisionsICP –Individual pricing decisions
1
Competitor CTS taken from reported financial statements. Note potential for corporate operating model differences.
49
14k
37k
62k
78k
Scaling through adjacencies
Incremental margin and improved customer experiences drive increased CLV
Broadband:
Growing
Multi product attachment
continues to drive lower churn
Dec-20Dec-19Dec-21Dec-22
Broadband connections
Multi-product churn benefit
Customer month churn rate by bundle Dec 21-Dec 22
Single Product2 Products3 Products
2.0%
2.7%
1.7%
1 point improvement
Rapidly
building scale
and market
share
Opportunity to expand data
connectivity through
Contact Mobile
Bringing to life ‘Energy Mobility’ digitally through partnerships
Bundling
creates
loyalty
Contact
Solar
Time of use
Energy Plans
Batteries
Energy
Control
EV
Dynamic load control will improve
management of peak load and
compliment ‘Good’ plans
Contact
Contact Dynamic
Load Control
Contact
Mobile
50
We see a further evolution of how customers
will engage with energy by the end of the decade
Bundled utility provider of choice
Distributed Storage (Batteries)
enables energy time shifting and
resilience.
Leverage brand
to efficiently scale
product lines.
Electrified Transport -in home
and out of homecharging.
Increasing use of data and
mobile connectivity.
Expansion of Time of Use plans
to incentiviseloadshifting.
Use of Automated ‘Demand flex’ Control.
Software powering user
experiences to manageand
control energy consumption
while ‘on the go’.
Distributed Generation
(Solar) supplements
network generation.
Energy
mobility
Energy
independence
Cloud based eco-system
thatcombines connectivity with
energy solutions toenable energy
mobility and energy independence.
Lowest CTS remains
a competitive
advantage.
51
Panel discussion
Enabling our strategy
John Clark
Chief Generation
Officer
Chris Abbott
Chief Corporate
Affairs Officer
Jan Bibby
Chief People
Experience Officer
Tighe Wall
Chief Digital Officer
Facilitator: Louise Wright, Head of Communications and Reputation
52
Major Projects
execution
Jack Ariel
Major Projects Director
53
Major Projects: Tauhara execution
and building capability for the future
54
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1
2021202220232024
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Plan at FID
Achieved by Aug 21
Tauhara: Project started well...
Commissioning
Construction
Commercial operation
55
But 2021-2022 happened
Extreme
externalities
Needed a different contracting model with more
contractors and more interfaces to manage.
Difficulty in getting skilled resources.
High absenteeism.
Logistic restrictions.
Changing ways of working.
Commodity
prices
skyrocketed
Immigration
down
Less skilled resources
Reduced local and
regional contractor
capacity
Uncharacteristic
rain patterns
Delays in getting goods
into New Zealand.
Record-high
transportation costs.
Highly impacting safety,
productivity, cranes
operations, etc.
Substantial impact
on costs and
availability
of goods.
High inflation.
Global
Pandemic
Global
supply chain
collapsed
56
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1
2021202220232024
Achieved by Aug 22
Based on the achieved
performance by Aug 22
the re-forecast showed
a further delay
Commissioning
Based on what we saw by Dec 21
we needed to adjust the plan
Construction
Plan at FID
...and we started to feel the consequences
Commercial operation
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Challenges were even greater than
envisaged
Q4Q1
57
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1
2021202220232024
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Recovery plan
Aug 22
We needed to change trajectory
And have now recovered a quarter
Actual
Apr 23
Q4
Commissioning
Construction
Commercial operation
58
Recovery plan –the challenge:
Re-focused project organisation
(ENABLER)
Closer line of sight, flatter organisation
Personal accountability
New and clearroles and responsibilities
Intensified recruitment drive
In the end, we converted the problem into an opportunity
To recover and de-risk the programme not compromising safety & quality, nothing off-limits (time –costs –output)
Set-up the Project Acceleration Office
(GAME CHANGER)
Acceleration initiatives to bring back completion date
De-risking initiatives to maintain the gains
Thorough preparation
Interface management
Relentless pace of delivery and work cadence
Collaboration with Partners
(TO IMPROVE OUTPUTS)
Worked with Sumitomo-Fuji to increase the output
of the plant (from 152 MW to 174 MW)
Engaged with every construction contractor
to work together on simplifying construction
and resequencing jobs
Redesigned piping system and steel structures
59
How we did it
Projectleadership
Strategy
(INTENTION)
Execution
(ATTENTION)
Robust business case
Compelling vision
Clear objectives & goals
Clear scope
Well defined budget
Strong processes
Meticulous plan
Thorough preparation
Impeccable execution
Pace of delivery
KPI’s and LI’s
Interface management
Risks & opportunities
Assurance and controls
Collaboration
One team spirit
Innovation
Competence
Motivation
Recognition
60
Geothermal Projects: Tauhara and Beyond
Tauhara
Tauhara
FEL-3 TeHuka
TeHukaEngineering
Te Huka
GeoFuture Engineering
FEL-3 GeoFuture
GeoFuture
Front-end
design
Te Huka
Te Huka ProcurementGeoFutureProcurement
GeoFuture
Engineering/
procurement
Construction
Commissioning
and readiness
61
Project delivery
capability
Capability beyond
geothermal
Design
efficiency
Contracting
strategies
Resourcing
Future capability: we tackled Tauhara
and developed future capability
What capabilities do we need to build to effectively execute large capital projects?
Our thinking process...
What is required for effective delivery of the future pipeline at Contact?
What we learnt from our capital
projects execution experience?
Project
delivery
Project
performance
Project definition
and planning
Actions taken to enhance and develop major projects capability
Creation of Major Projects Group | MajorProjectProcesses | Project Academy | Constructability reviews thorough project definition & construction discipline involvement during design |
Partnership with others forspecialistknowledge –Lightsourcebp for solar, Roaring40s for wind|Created contracting andprocurement capability within Major Projects|
Thorough project definition scope, estimateprocess, readiness reviews and more
Project delivery
process(project
management,
construction,
engineering, etc.)
Wind, solar and
storage
Design to Cost
Fit for purpose
specification
Constructability
in design
Digital tools
Contractor
operating model
depending
on market
circumstances
(not “one model
fits all”)
Owner’s team and
contractors’ teams
Major projects
delivery model
KPI measurement
and tracking
Pace and cadence
“Projects portfolio“
approach rather than
“task force”
approach
Thorough
front-end work
Meticulous
planning
62
Construction
Design Efficiency through scope
optimisation(Design to Cost)
Simplification of specifications &
standardisation
Constructability in Design
Safety in Design
Front-end work and project planning
for flawless delivery
Major Project processes for
consistency in delivery
Contracting & procurement focus
Project Academy and mentoring programme
Acquire specialist knowledge through
partnerships (wind / solar)
Contracting strategies aligned with local,
regional and national industry capabilities
Partnership and collaboration mindset with
contractors and construction industry
Lean construction
Sustainability in construction
Clear vision and leadership
Defined functions to cover major project needs
Competent Resourcesand
Roles & Responsibilities
Cadence of execution and reporting
Full involvement of Major Projects team
during project development allowing for
gradual transition
OrganisationDesignCapability
And we’ve developed the capability to execute large
capital projects
TauharaTe Huka 3GeoFutureSolarWind
Battery
63
Dorian Devers
CFO
Disciplined
investment;
growing returns
64
Leadership in shareholder communications
Key initiatives implemented
Principles
TransparencyAccountabilityNot hiding behind complexity
of the business
Simplified view
of the short-term
value drivers and
trajectory of
channel prices
and volumes
Short-term and
long-term EBITDAF
guidance to drive
accountability
Monthly tracking
of progress on
major projects
vs target
Reporting on
ROIC metrics
and focus on
improving returns
on investment
Implemented
regular operational
ESG reporting,
prominence of ESG
aligned with financial
metrics
65
Dynamic capital allocation to meet the market
2 YEARS
Conditions improved for NZAS to stay.
Large scale data centre developments underway.
Gas availability constrained,carbon prices higher.
Development announcements prominent.
Construction environment constrained.
Technology cost curves turned.
Battery economics have been challenging.
Forward wholesale electricity prices elevated.
Investment decisions taken
Accelerate the development of the geothermal assets:
•Accelerate TeHuka3 investment backed by Microsoft agreement.
•Advance TeMihi Stage 2 (GeoFuture) for investment decision.
Early-stage investment of $7mto secure wind and solar
development pipeline.
Deferred battery investment as lithium prices rose. Rapidly advancing
to FID with capital costs $30m lower since December 2022. Stratford
(consented) or potentially Glenbrook (subject to consenting).
Thermal investment limited to peakersand to manage security of supply:
•TeRapa closure.
•No further major TCC investment.
Enhanced asset refurbishment programme to reduce risks around
unexpected plant outages.
Environmental changes
A
B
C
D
E
66
0.
Driving value from renewable development
Indicative go-forward renewables LRMC $/MWh
1
Geothermal
Wind
Solar
1
Based on 100MW plants across technologies. Solar includes benefits from project financing
Firming required
All margin,
no firming
costs
$105/MWh (2022 real)
Long run price
expectation (>2027)
Intermittent renewable generation firming margin
only available if hydro capacity is unused.
Firming required
$75/MWh
$80/MWh
$85/MWh
$30/MWh
$25/MWh
Requires
firming from
scarce
resources,
which is not
costless
Margin available
$20/MWh
Solar (generation weighted vs time weighted)
Wind (generation weighted vs time weighted)
051015202530354045
0.75
0.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
Wind share of Demand/Generation(%)
Wind Combined GWAP/TWAP
NZ historical
Texas
Germany
051015202530354045
0.7
0.9
0.8
0.0
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
Solar share of Demand/Generation(%)
Solar Combined GWAP/TWAP
NZ Energy Link modelling
Germany
California
Early-stage point-estimate of
projects available to Contact
Source MDAG: Price discovery with 100% renewable electricity supply. Concept Consulting and Energy Link.
1.0
0.77
0.95
0.73
0.82
0.71
~25-30% loss per 10% penetration
~10% loss per 10% penetration
We are in a unique position across the technology types, with our renewable geothermal development
not requiring firming. Relative value of new renewable flexibility will increase.
$70-85/MWh
$75-90/MWh
$85-95/MWh
67
Capital allocation framework: delivering our strategy
Decision making framework to deliver value accretive growth
Opportunity
Expected /
targeted returns
1
Rationale
Geothermal
Near term >12%
Ultimately >10%
Compensates for scarce resource and subsurface expertise
to develop. No firming costs.
Wind
Near term >10%
Ultimately 8-10%
Latent system firming has very limited firming costs.
Above WACC return for higher quality sites.
Solar
Near term >15%
Ultimately 7-9%
Speed to market to capture elevated wholesale pricing.
Lowest barriers to entry.
Project financing structure drives higher returns to Contact.
Utility scale
batteries
Near term > 7-9%
Ultimately 8-10%
Early returns will be challenged but strategic benefits of
firming investment need to be captured.
Changing value rankings of renewable investments
Highest
value
Lowest
value
Today (FY23)Tomorrow (FY27+)
New
Geothermal
New
Geothermal
New intermittent
renewables
New renewable
flexibility
New renewable
flexibility
New intermittent
renewables
Grid scale batteries
Demand response
Biomass
Sources of new renewable flexibility
all uncertain (either flexibility or cost)
1
IRR, based on current financing approaches (Wind, Geothermal on balance sheet, 30% gearing, Solar project financed).
Near term returns higher on elevated wholesale pricing and lower correlation with existing assets.
Hydro consenting
changes
Pumped hydro
68
253253
270
282
271
377
490
507
549
500
70
0
20
30
40
50
80
60
750
0
250
46
FY20AFY27F
$m
FY26FFY19A
20
cps
19
17
FY21A
21
FY22A
20
FY23F
29
FY24F
39
FY25F
42
+267
+94.7%
EBITDAF ($m)
OpFCF (cps)⁶
Near-term growth: Geothermal
Investments expected to deliver material operating free cash flow uplift
Key assumptions / metrics
FY19AFY20AFY21AFY22AFY23FFY24FFY25FFY26FFY27F
Generation volumesGWh
3,2563,3333,1143,2833,2323,9745,0195,1265,464
Geothermal PPA: Internal¹GWh
2,9302,9992,8032,9552,8963,5624,0493,8854,189
Geothermal PPA: ExternalGWh
000006468728728
PPA price –Internal²$/MWh
85.086.688.293.7100.3106.3110.6112.8115.1
Average electricity price$/MWh
89.887.896.998.399.4110.7111.7112.6114.6
Other income³$m
336111116222832
Carbon emissions⁴ ktCO
2
e
217197179183192241249261275
Transmission costs$m
-4-4-3-3-7-10-12-12-19
Direct operating costs$/MWh
-11-10-12-12-12-12-10-11-10
⁵ Mid-point of the estimate range ($5.3m -$5.7m/MW), 168MW plant illustrated. Subject to final investment decision.
⁶Investment in associate.
⁷Debt sized at 2.8x net debt to EBITDAF. Interest costs forecast at 5.5%. Tax book value at FY22 ~$800m.
Pro-forma geothermal segment: EBITDAF and Operating free cash flow
Key metrics
FY19AFY20AFY21AFY22AFY23FFY24FFY25FFY26FFY27F
Annual inflation rate
change
%1.8%1.9%1.9%6.3%7.0%5.0%2.5%2.0%2.0%
SIB capex$m-28-39-30-25-31-39-33-33-30
Notional Debt⁷$m7097077567897591,0561,3741,4181,538
Cumulative geothermal capitalinvestment ($m)
¹ 10% of the generation volume merchant and sold into the spot market (forecast ASX). Does not include major commissioning outages.
²Internal PPA pricing set to $85/MWh (real FY19).
³ Steam sales, Western Energy gross margin, revenue from sales of renewable attributes and carbon income from afforestation.
⁴Gross carbon emissions. Does not include the impact from carbon capture.
15
786
Afforestation⁶
300
Tauhara
Te Huka
GeoFuture⁵
950
58
Western Energy
288
SIB capex
31
110
221
541
956
1,456
1,902
2,231
2,396
FY19AFY24FFY20AFY24FFY21AFY23FFY22AFY23FFY23F
2,396
69
Future growth: Intermittent renewables
Wind and solar additions will be supported by firming and sales channel choices
Baseload geothermal.
Hydro backed by peakers to cover dry year risks.
Potential wind and solar firmed with a
combination of battery / peakers / hydro /
geographic diversity.
252
193
283
255
FY21FY19FY20
553
FY22
537
505
446
Geothermal
Rest of the business
EBITDAF range (FY19 –22)
$193m
$283m
Average $246m
+-~$50m
Mass market: Daily shape met with hydro and battery,
seasonal with hydro storage and ASX buy/sell.
C&I: Flex to manage winter fuel risk, sell adjacent demand
products (demand flex) or access pricing discrepancies with
mass market channels.
ASX: Manage short-term fuel risk. Geothermal residual.
62%
Manage demand peak shapes
Winter
Summer
Manage annual volatile hydro inflows
Manage seasonal demand swings (TWh)
9.5
11.1
SummerWinter
+16.7%
Historical EBITDAF by proforma segment ($m)
Corporate enabling
functions
0
100
200
300
400
500
Manage daily/weekly intermittent renewables
EnergySales
Strategy and portfolio
management
Engineering
Corporate
SIB capex average (FY19 –22)
$31m
ICT
Firming
Wind
70
55
65
25
25
20
31
11
9
9
5 year (21-26) capex
spend profile as at
Feb 2021
100
5 year (21-26) capex
spend profile as at
May 2023
150
Mid-life hydro spend
Trading systems enhancement
Carbon capture
Peaker remediation¹
Geothermal resilience
SAP
Five year accelerated SIB capex programme
We have accelerated key SIB capex initiatives to enhance resilience and capture market value
Accelerated SIB capex programme ($m)
Accelerated SIB capex phasing ($m)
What we will deliver
Optimisinghydro assets to
ensure maximum output to
leverage high wholesale prices.
Investment in peakerresilience
to enhance reliability,
supporting system security.
Continued strong relationships
with iwi to support the
development of GeoFuture
geothermal powerstation.
De-risking ICT environment to
ensure robust, secure and
supported software and
information systems.
¹ Net of insurance proceeds of $15m. The capex and insurance income will be separately disclosed in the financial statements.
²Excludes expenditure under the accelerated capex programme.
SIB capex performance² ($m)
60
51
58
51
FY22FY19FY20FY21
SIB capex average (FY19 –22)
$55m
$40m
Cumulatively below expectation
FY25
3
FY24¹
FY21
FY23
24
45
FY22
36
FY26
30
12
150
71
Contact indicative FY27 EBITDAF aspiration
¹ See slide 68 for assumptions underpinning assumptions for Geothermal proforma and EBITDAF changes.
² Pricing to long term channels (Retail and Strategic long-term sales) rises with inflation. Market channel pricing (C&I, CFD, Merchant) at $135/MWh (FY22: $133/MWh).
³ Cost inflation on thermal fuel, fixed costs and geothermal PPA escalation.
4
Other income reduces on steam sales from steam sales post TeRapa closure (-$30m) partially offset by increase in Retail non-electricity products gross margin.
⁵ Solar EBITDAF contribution subject to Board Final Investment Decision on Kowhai Park and North Island solar (see slide 37).
Achieved FY27
result will be
dependent on
hydrology with
+/-$50m annual
variance to mean
to continue
<300 ktCO
2
e
Scope 1 and 2 Emissions
(net of afforestation)
788 ktCO
2
e
282
549
255
267
94
266
100
Price increases to
offset cost inflation
20
15
FY22Normalised and
expected FY27
Geothermal
EBITDAF uplift¹
Other income⁴
815
Solar uplift⁵
Rest of the
business
Geothermal
537
6
+278
+52%
Electricity net revenue²
Cost inflation³
Supported by NZAS extension and current electricity futures market prices
EBITDAF($m)
72
Q&A
Dorian Devers
CFO
Mike Fuge
CEO
73
Mike Fuge
CEO
Closing remarks
Thank you
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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