Global Dairy Update July 2023
• Fonterra increases emissions reduction ambitions.
1
Global Dairy
UPDATE
• New Zealand starts new season.
Australia and EU monthly production
increased, US flat.
• New Zealand monthly exports increased.
Australia, EU and US exports continue
to decrease.
• China and Latin America monthly imports
increased. Asia and Middle East & Africa
monthly imports decreased.
• Fonterra New Zealand milk collections for
the first month of the 2023/24 season were
14.7 million kgMS, less than 1% of the full
season forecast.
• Fonterra Australia milk collections for June
were 6.5 million kgMS, up 0.2% on June the
prior season.
• Celebrating hard work at the Best Site Cup Awards.
Key Dates
Late August 2023
Capital Return Payment to Shareholders and Unit Holders
21 September 2023
FY23 Annual Results Announcement
JULY 2023
%
%
%%
%
%
%%
Change for June 2023
compared to June 2022
Change for June 2023
compared to June 2022
Change for May 2023
compared to May 2022
Change for April 2023
compared to April 2022
Change for the 12 months
to June 2023
Change for the 12 months
to June 2023
Change for the 12 months
to May 2023
Change for the 12 months
to April 2023
0.01.61.8
5.60.50.8
0.3
0.5
2
OUR MARKETS
Global Production
New Zealand starts new
season. Australia and
EU monthly production
increased, US flat
New Zealand¹ milk
production was down
1.8% on a litres basis, (down
0.4% on milk solids basis) in
June compared to the same
period the year prior.
June production is typically
very low and represents
about 1% of the total
season's production.
New Zealand milk
production for the 12 months
to June was 0.5% lower
compared to the previous
comparable period.
Fonterra New Zealand
collections are reported for
June, see page 5 for details.
Australia milk
production increased 1.6%
in May compared to the
same period the year prior.
Soil moisture levels have
supported pasture growth
in May.
Australia milk production for
the 12 months to May was
5.6% lower compared to the
previous comparable period.
Fonterra collections in
Australia are reported for
June, see page 5 for details.
EU milk production²
increased 0.3% in April
year‑on‑year.
The production increase was
driven primarily by Germany,
Netherlands and Poland,
partially offset by decreases
in France and Italy.
EU milk production for
the 12 months to April was
up 0.5% on the previous
comparable period.
Increases in Germany, the
Netherlands, Poland and
Belgium were partially offset
by declines in France, Italy
and Spain.
US milk production was
flat in June compared to the
same period the year prior.
Increased production in the
Midwest region was offset by
a decrease in the Southwest,
resulting in flat production
year‑on‑year.
Milk production for the
12 months to June increased
0.8% on the previous
comparable period.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year
changes in production –
1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.
2 Excludes UK.
To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year
changes in exports –
3
OUR MARKETS
Global Exports
New Zealand monthly
exports increased. Australia,
EU and US exports continue
to decrease
Total New Zealand dairy
exports increased 22.4%, or
56,336 MT, in June compared
to the same period the
year prior.
The increase was driven by
WMP, cheese and SMP. WMP
exports increased due to
China and Algerian tender
fulfilments. SMP exports
to China were more than
double compared to the
same period the year prior.
Cheese exports to China hit
a new record high compared
to the prior year.
Exports for the 12 months
to June were up 6.0%, or
197,938 MT, on the previous
comparable period. This was
driven by increases in SMP,
butter, AMF and cheese
partially offset by decreases
in WMP.
EU dairy exports
decreased 2.9%, or
16,494 MT, in May compared
to the same period the
year prior.
The decrease was driven
by lower volumes of infant
formula to China. This was
partially offset by an increase
in export volumes of SMP
and fluid milk products.
Exports for the 12 months
to May were down 6.0%, or
405,070 MT, on the previous
comparable period. This
was driven by declines in
fluid milk products, cheese
and WMP, partially offset by
increases in infant formula,
SMP and cultured products.
US dairy exports
decreased 14.2%, or
39,174 MT, in May compared
to the same period the
year prior.
The decrease was driven
by lower export volumes of
WMP and SMP to Malaysia
and Indonesia, and cheese to
Japan and Korea.
Exports for the 12 months
to May were up 2.6%, or
71,422 MT, on the previous
comparable period. This was
driven by lactose, cheese,
whey and WPC, partially
offset by declines in SMP.
Australia dairy exports
decreased 31.6%, or
24,767 MT, in May compared
to the same period the
year prior.
The decrease in exports was
driven by lower volumes of
fluid milk products, cheese
and SMP.
Exports for the 12 months to
May were down 25.3%, or
237,486 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was predominantly
driven by decreases in fluid
milk products, WMP, SMP,
and cheese.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
%%%
%
%
%
Change for June 2023
compared June 2022
Change for May 2023
compared to May 2022
Change for May 2023
compared to May 2022
Change for May 2023
compared to May 2022
Change for the 12 months
to May 2023
Change for the 12 months
to May 2023
Change for the 12 months
to June 2023
Change for the 12 months
to May 2023
14.231.6
22.4
2.9
2.625.36.06.0
%
%
To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year
changes in imports –
4
OUR MARKETS
Global Imports
China and Latin
America monthly
imports increased.
Asia and Middle East
& Africa monthly
imports decreased
Latin America dairy
import volumes¹ increased
18.5%, or 32,063 MT, in
May compared to the same
period the year prior.
The increase was driven by
higher imported volumes of
WMP by Brazil, and SMP and
cheese by Mexico.
Imports for the 12 months
to May were up 13.4%, or
280,805 MT, on the previous
comparable period, driven
by higher volumes of WMP,
SMP, cheese and AMF.
Asia (excluding China)
dairy import volumes¹
decreased 4.1%, or 18,699 MT,
in May compared to the
same period the year prior.
The decrease was driven
by lower import volumes
of WMP, SMP and infant
formula, partially offset by an
increase in whey, butter and
cultured products.
Imports for the 12 months
to May were down 5.4%, or
276,078 MT, on the previous
comparable period. This
was driven by lower import
volumes of WMP, SMP,
cheese and AMF.
Middle East and Africa
dairy import volumes¹
decreased 0.6%, or 2,636 MT,
in May compared to the
same period the year prior.
The decrease was driven
by lower import volumes
of fluid dairy products and
cheese by Iraq. This was
partially offset by an increase
in import volumes of WMP
and SMP by United Arab
Emirates.
Imports for the 12 months
to May were down 0.3%, or
16,640 MT, on the previous
comparable period. This was
driven by a decline in fluid
milk products and cultured
products, partially offset
by an increase in SMP and
infant formula.
China dairy import
volumes increased by
12.4%, or 31,797 MT, in June
compared to the same
period the year prior.
The increase was driven
by higher import volumes
of lactose from the US
and the EU, cheese from
New Zealand and EU, and
butter from New Zealand.
This was partially offset by a
decrease in demand for whey
and infant formula.
Imports for the 12 months
to June were down 13.0%, or
481,301 MT, on the previous
comparable period driven by
a decline in WMP and fluid
milk products.
LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA
1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.
%
%
%%
%
Change for May 2023
compared to May 2022
Change for June 2023
compared to June 2022
Change for May 2023
compared to May 2022
Change for May 2023
compared to May 2022
Change for the 12 months
to May 2023
Change for the 12 months
to May 2023
Change for the 12 months
to May 2023
12.44.118.5
5.40.3
%
Change for the 12 months
to June 2023
13.0
0.6
13.4
%
%
To view a table that shows
detailed milk collections in New
Zealand and Australia compared
to the previous season –
%
%%
For the 2022/23 Season
compared to the previous season
Season-to-date
1 June to 30 June
Season-to-date
1 June to 30 June
Season-to-date
1 June to 30 June
Change for June 2023
compared to June 2022
Change for June 2023
compared to June 2022
Change for June 2023
compared to June 2022
Change for June 2023
compared to June 2022
0.25.23.21.2
0.35.23.21.2
VOLUME M LITRESDAY
JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
5
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Milk Collections
NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA
New Zealand Milk Collections
Fonterra's Australia
collections for June were
6.5 million kgMS, a 0.2%
increase on June last season.
Collections increased in
June mainly due to the
recruitment of additional
farms in the F23 season.
This was partially offset
by higher‑than‑average
rainfall for June across
much of Northern/Western
Victoria and Tasmania,
impacting production.
Fonterra collections across
Australia for the full season
were 105.8 million kgMS, a
0.3% increase on last season.
North Island milk
collections in June were
11. 1 million kgMS, 3.2%
behind June last season.
Weather was mixed in
June, with continued rain
in the North Island causing
lower pasture utilisation in
preparation for calving.
South Island milk
collections in June were
3.6 million kgMS, 5.2% ahead
of last June.
The South Island has had
normal weather patterns
for this time of the season
compared to last year.
Fonterra's New Zealand
collections for June were
14.7 million kgMS, 1.2%
behind June last season.
As is normal for this time of
the season, collections for
June represent less than 1%
of the full season forecast.
Higher than usual collections
from the South Island were
partially offset by slightly
lower collections in the
North Island.
Farms are now preparing for
calving and ensuring animal
conditions and pasture
covers are strong going into
late winter.
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%
%
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%
To view more information,
including a snapshot of the
rolling year‑to‑date results –
%
6
GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE
JUL SEP DEC APR
JUL
NOV MAY FEB
,
,
,
,
,
.
.
.
.
.
.
PRICE INDEX
NZD USD
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results
Fonterra GDT sales
by destination:
Dairy commodity prices and New Zealand
dollar trend
Risk appetite across financial markets has improved in recent
months as central bank policies designed to tame inflation
continue to gain traction. The result has been an extended
period of stability in many asset classes, including foreign
exchange. The NZD/USD exchange rate remained range‑bound
between 61 and 64 US cents.
Fonterra GDT results at
last trading event
18 July 2023:
The next trading event will be held on 1 August 2023. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.
Change in Fonterra’s
weighted average product
price from previous event
0.6
Fonterra’s weighted
average product price
(USD/MT)
3,337
USD
Fonterra product quantity
sold on GDT
000’ MT
23.9
NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)
SOUTH EAST ASIA
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
OTHER
USD 3,955/MT
9.8
CHEDDAR
USD 4,745/MT
3.6
AMF
USD 3,100/MT
1.6
WMP
USD 2,528/MT
0.5
SMP
USD 4,705/MT
2.8
BUTTER
23,870
MT
LATEST AUCTION
614,698
MT
FINANCIAL
YEAR‑TO‑DATE
7
Our Performance
Fonterra increases
emissions reduction
ambitions
On Thursday 20 July,
Fonterra announced a lift in
its decarbonisation ambition
with a new Scope 1&2
emissions reduction target
which will be achieved by
bringing forward some of its
work to get out of coal.
Fonterra CEO Miles Hurrell
says the Co‑op is targeting
a 50% absolute reduction
in Scope 1&2 emissions by
2030, from a 2018 baseline,
an increase on its previous
target of a 30% reduction
by 2030. “Fonterra’s Scope
1&2 emissions largely come
from our manufacturing
operations and supply chain.
Strengthening our emissions
reduction target supports
our ambition to be net zero
by 2050,” says Mr Hurrell.
Achieving the new target will
require Fonterra to continue
to undertake energy
efficiency improvements and
fuel switching to renewable
energy source activities
across its milk collection
fleet and manufacturing
sites, with a focus on the six
where it uses coal.
To do this, Fonterra is
forecasting an investment
of $790 million, including a
government contribution of
up to $90 million through
the Government Investment
in Decarbonising Industry
(GIDI) fund.
"As a Co‑op, Fonterra
understands how we can
achieve more by working
together. The addition
of government funding
enables us to lift our 2030
ambition to reduce Scope
1&2 emissions by 50% and
optimise our process to get
out of coal by 2037.
“Our decarbonisation plan
will see us explore multiple
technologies to ensure the
most efficient phase out
of coal and transition to
renewable energy across
our manufacturing sites,
while building resilience into
our operations.
“We are already well
underway with shifting our
manufacturing operations
to renewable energy
sources. Over the past five
years, we have carried out
decarbonisation projects
at five different sites and
we’re looking forward to
continuing this momentum.
“We’re currently assessing
biomass, electrification
and heat pump technology
A map of Fonterra’s current
and future decarbonisation
projects is available –
at our Clandeboye and
Edendale sites. We see
these technologies as the
best solutions possible at
this stage.
“Accelerating our plans will
help Fonterra continue to
present our customers with
the world’s lowest carbon
dairy at scale. It will also
contribute to New Zealand
meeting its climate targets
while delivering benefits
across regional New Zealand,
such as job opportunities
in local communities,” says
Mr Hurrell.
The Co‑op is currently talking
with farmers about a Scope 3
emissions target, which will
be announced shortly.
Fonterra’s climate targets
are aligned to the Science
Based Target initiative, which
means they’re aligned to
limiting global warming to
1.5 degrees. The process
of seeking accreditation
is underway.
Our Co-op
8
Celebrating hard work at the Best Site Cup Awards
On Thursday 22 June, almost
200 representatives from
Fonterra’s manufacturing
sites across New Zealand
came together to celebrate
their achievements at the
annual Best Site Cup awards.
Following virtual events
over previous years, it was
wonderful for the sites to
celebrate their successes in‑
person this year, in Auckland.
Fonterra’s manufacturing
sites employ 7000 people
from 26 communities across
New Zealand. They work
hard every day to transform
Fonterra farmers’ milk into
a variety of products that
are beloved nationally and
internationally.
The Best Site Cup awards are
a great opportunity to take
the time to recognise the
effort teams have put in and
highlight their achievements.
Southland’s Edendale site
was the big winner of
the night, securing Best
Large Site Cup, Quality
Cup, and the Japan Protein
Award. Edendale’s strong
quality results and food
safety culture gave them
the winning edge for the
Best Large Site Cup. The
award also recognised the
site’s dedication to their
people – for instance,
Edendale facilitates a
women’s lean‑in group,
which is an opportunity for
the women of Edendale to
meet regularly and support
one another to achieve
their goals.
Central North Island site,
Pahiatua, was awarded the
Best Medium Site Cup in
recognition of their great
focus on people and culture,
community engagement,
and consistency in producing
high spec products.
A reduction in waste to
landfill by more than 30%
helped the Central North
Island’s Reporoa scoop the
Sustainability Cup along
with the highly coveted Best
Small Site.
Alan van der Nagel,
Fonterra’s Director of
New Zealand Manufacturing,
says all 26 sites should be
incredibly proud of work they
have achieved over the past
year. “Our team has been
unflappable. The last year
hasn’t been easy – it’s
tough to juggle milk
supply with unpredictable
weather events and post‑
COVID supply chain issues,
but everyone’s made a
huge effort.”
AWARDWINNERRUNNER‑UP
Health and Safety Cup Studholme Reporoa
People Cup Kauri Pahiatua
Sustainability CupReporoa Te Awamutu
Productivity Cup Maungaturoto Waitoa, Pahiatua
Quality Cup Edendale Brightwater
Customer Cup Canpac Stirling
Compliance Cup Stirling Takaka
Transport Award (TAMS) Te Awamutu Reporoa
Best Small Site ReporoaStirling
Best Medium Site Pahiatua Te Awamutu
Best Large Site Edendale Darfield
Best Speciality Site Waitoa UHTCanpac
Director’s Cup Brightwater
Transformation CupLichfield Eltham
Fuel Efficiency ShieldTe RapaEdgecumbe
Japan Cheese CupLichfield
Japan Protein CupEdendale MPC
Greater China CEO Quality Star
Milk Powder Plant
Pahiatua
Greater China CEO Quality Star
Cheese Plant
Clandeboye
Greater China CEO Quality Star
Butter Plant
Te Rapa
Greater China CEO Quality Star
Protein Plant
Maungaturoto
Greater China CEO Quality Star
UHT Milk and Cream Plant
Waitoa UHT
PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
DEC JUL
JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR
LIQUID MILK M LITRES
EXPORTS
AUSTRALIA
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY
MT s
AVERAGE
IMPORTS
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA
ASIACHINA
SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT
MT s
AVERAGE
9
Supplementary Information
Global Dairy Market
The charts on the right
illustrate the year‑on‑year
changes in imports, exports
and production for a range of
countries that are important
players in global dairy trade.
The absolute size of
the bars represents the
change in imports, exports
or production, relative
to the same period the
previous year.
Averages are shown where
data is complete for the
regions presented.
NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to May; New Zealand and US to June.
NOTE: Data for EU, US and Australia to May; New Zealand to June.
NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa, Latin America to May; and China to June.
SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR
MAR
JAN
OCT FEB
JUL
AUG MAY
SEP NOV DEC JUN
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD MT
10
Supplementary Information
Fonterra milk
production
The table on the right
shows Fonterra milk solids
collected in New Zealand
and Australia compared
to the previous season.
MILK COLLECTION
(MILLION KGMS)
JUNE
2023
JUNE
2022
MONTHLY
CHANGE
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2023/24
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2022/23
SEASON-
TO-DATE
CHANGE
Total Fonterra
New Zealand
14.714.9(1.2%)14.714.9(1.2%)
North Island11. 111. 5(3.2%)11. 111. 5(3.2%)
South Island3.63.45.2%3.63.45.2%
JUNE
2023
JUNE
2022
MONTHLY
CHANGE
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2022/23
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2021/22
SEASON-
TO-DATE
CHANGE
Australia6.56.50.2%105.8105.50.3%
Fonterra GDT results
This table provides more
information on the latest
results, including a snapshot
of the year‑to‑date results.
LAST TRADING EVENT
(18 JULY 2023)
YEAR-TO-DATE
(FROM 1 AUGUST 2022)
Quantity Sold on GDT
(Winning MT)
23,870614,698
Change in Quantity Sold on GDT
over same period last year
7.6%2.7%
Weighted Average Product Price
(USD/MT)
3,3373,598
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price over same period
last year
(20.4%)(18.4%)
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price from previous event
(0.6%)–
Fonterra GDT results
This chart shows Fonterra
GDT prices and volumes over
the past 12 months.
11
AMF
Anhydrous Milk Fat.
BMP
Butter Milk Powder.
Cultured Products
Fermented milks that are
prepared by using starter
cultures and controlled
fermentation including
yoghurt, yoghurt drinks, sour
cream, crème fraiche.
DIRA
Dairy Industry Restructuring
Act 2001 (New Zealand).
Farmgate Milk Price
The price for milk supplied in
New Zealand to Fonterra by
farmer shareholders.
Fluid Products
The Fonterra grouping
of fluid milk products
(skim milk, whole milk
and cream – pasteurised
or UHT processed),
concentrated milk products
(evaporated milk and
sweetened condensed milk)
and yoghurt.
GDT
Global Dairy Trade, the
online provider of the twice
monthly global auctions of
dairy ingredients.
kgMS
Kilogram of milk solids, the
measure of the amount of
fat and protein in the milk
supplied to Fonterra.
MPC
Milk Protein Concentrate.
Non‑Reference Products
All dairy products,
except for Reference
Products, produced
by the New Zealand
Ingredients business.
Reference Products
The dairy products used
in the calculation of the
Farmgate Milk Price, which
are currently WMP, SMP,
BMP, butter and AMF.
Glossary
Season
New Zealand: A period
of 12 months to 31 May
in each year.
Australia: A period of
12 months to 30 June
in each year.
SMP
Skim Milk Powder.
WMP
Whole Milk Powder.
WPC
Whey Protein Concentrate.
WPI
Whey Protein Isolate.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time
Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update July 20232023-07-31
“• Fonterra increases emissions reduction ambitions. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • New Zealand starts new season. Australia and EU monthly production increased, US flat. • New Zealand monthly exports increased. Australia, EU and US exports continue to decrease. • China and…”
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update August 20232023-08-31
“• Fonterra provided an update on FY23 earnings guidance and FY24 forecast Farmgate Milk Price. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • New Zealand and US monthly production decreased. Australia and EU monthly production increased. • EU monthly exports increased. New Zealand, Australia…”
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update September 20232023-09-28
“% % %% % % %% Change for August 2023 compared to August 2022 Change for August 2023 compared to August 2022 Change for July 2023 compared to July 2022 Change for July 2023 compared to July 2022 Change for the 12 months to August 2023 Change for the 12 months to August 202…”