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Global Dairy Update July 2023

Operational Update31 July 2023FSFConsumer Staples

• Fonterra increases emissions reduction ambitions.
1

Global Dairy

UPDATE

• New Zealand starts new season.

Australia and EU monthly production

increased, US flat.

• New Zealand monthly exports increased.

Australia, EU and US exports continue

to decrease.

• China and Latin America monthly imports

increased. Asia and Middle East & Africa

monthly imports decreased.

• Fonterra New Zealand milk collections for

the first month of the 2023/24 season were

14.7 million kgMS, less than 1% of the full

season forecast.

• Fonterra Australia milk collections for June

were 6.5 million kgMS, up 0.2% on June the

prior season.

• Celebrating hard work at the Best Site Cup Awards.

Key Dates

Late August 2023

Capital Return Payment to Shareholders and Unit Holders

21 September 2023

FY23 Annual Results Announcement

JULY 2023

%
%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for June 2023

compared to June 2022

Change for June 2023

compared to June 2022

Change for May 2023

compared to May 2022

Change for April 2023

compared to April 2022

Change for the 12 months

to June 2023

Change for the 12 months

to June 2023

Change for the 12 months

to May 2023

Change for the 12 months

to April 2023

0.01.61.8

5.60.50.8

0.3

0.5

2

OUR MARKETS

Global Production

New Zealand starts new

season. Australia and

EU monthly production

increased, US flat

New Zealand¹ milk

production was down

1.8% on a litres basis, (down

0.4% on milk solids basis) in

June compared to the same

period the year prior.

June production is typically

very low and represents

about 1% of the total

season's production.

New Zealand milk

production for the 12 months

to June was 0.5% lower

compared to the previous

comparable period.

Fonterra New Zealand

collections are reported for

June, see page 5 for details.

Australia milk

production increased 1.6%

in May compared to the

same period the year prior.

Soil moisture levels have

supported pasture growth

in May.

Australia milk production for

the 12 months to May was

5.6% lower compared to the

previous comparable period.

Fonterra collections in

Australia are reported for

June, see page 5 for details.

EU milk production²

increased 0.3% in April

year‑on‑year.

The production increase was

driven primarily by Germany,

Netherlands and Poland,

partially offset by decreases

in France and Italy.

EU milk production for

the 12 months to April was

up 0.5% on the previous

comparable period.

Increases in Germany, the

Netherlands, Poland and

Belgium were partially offset

by declines in France, Italy

and Spain.

US milk production was

flat in June compared to the

same period the year prior.

Increased production in the

Midwest region was offset by

a decrease in the Southwest,

resulting in flat production

year‑on‑year.

Milk production for the

12 months to June increased

0.8% on the previous

comparable period.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

To view a chart that

illustrates year‑on‑year

changes in production –

1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.

2 Excludes UK.

To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

Global Exports

New Zealand monthly

exports increased. Australia,

EU and US exports continue

to decrease

Total New Zealand dairy

exports increased 22.4%, or

56,336 MT, in June compared

to the same period the

year prior.

The increase was driven by

WMP, cheese and SMP. WMP

exports increased due to

China and Algerian tender

fulfilments. SMP exports

to China were more than

double compared to the

same period the year prior.

Cheese exports to China hit

a new record high compared

to the prior year.

Exports for the 12 months

to June were up 6.0%, or

197,938 MT, on the previous

comparable period. This was

driven by increases in SMP,

butter, AMF and cheese

partially offset by decreases

in WMP.

EU dairy exports

decreased 2.9%, or

16,494 MT, in May compared

to the same period the

year prior.

The decrease was driven

by lower volumes of infant

formula to China. This was

partially offset by an increase

in export volumes of SMP

and fluid milk products.

Exports for the 12 months

to May were down 6.0%, or

405,070 MT, on the previous

comparable period. This

was driven by declines in

fluid milk products, cheese

and WMP, partially offset by

increases in infant formula,

SMP and cultured products.

US dairy exports

decreased 14.2%, or

39,174 MT, in May compared

to the same period the

year prior.

The decrease was driven

by lower export volumes of

WMP and SMP to Malaysia

and Indonesia, and cheese to

Japan and Korea.

Exports for the 12 months

to May were up 2.6%, or

71,422 MT, on the previous

comparable period. This was

driven by lactose, cheese,

whey and WPC, partially

offset by declines in SMP.

Australia dairy exports

decreased 31.6%, or

24,767 MT, in May compared

to the same period the

year prior.

The decrease in exports was

driven by lower volumes of

fluid milk products, cheese

and SMP.

Exports for the 12 months to

May were down 25.3%, or

237,486 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was predominantly

driven by decreases in fluid

milk products, WMP, SMP,

and cheese.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

%%%

%

%

%

Change for June 2023

compared June 2022

Change for May 2023

compared to May 2022

Change for May 2023

compared to May 2022

Change for May 2023

compared to May 2022

Change for the 12 months

to May 2023

Change for the 12 months

to May 2023

Change for the 12 months

to June 2023

Change for the 12 months

to May 2023

14.231.6

22.4

2.9

2.625.36.06.0

%

%

To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

Global Imports

China and Latin

America monthly

imports increased.

Asia and Middle East

& Africa monthly

imports decreased

Latin America dairy

import volumes¹ increased

18.5%, or 32,063 MT, in

May compared to the same

period the year prior.

The increase was driven by

higher imported volumes of

WMP by Brazil, and SMP and

cheese by Mexico.

Imports for the 12 months

to May were up 13.4%, or

280,805 MT, on the previous

comparable period, driven

by higher volumes of WMP,

SMP, cheese and AMF.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 4.1%, or 18,699  MT,

in May compared to the

same period the year prior.

The decrease was driven

by lower import volumes

of WMP, SMP and infant

formula, partially offset by an

increase in whey, butter and

cultured products.

Imports for the 12 months

to May were down 5.4%, or

276,078 MT, on the previous

comparable period. This

was driven by lower import

volumes of WMP, SMP,

cheese and AMF.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 0.6%, or 2,636  MT,

in May compared to the

same period the year prior.

The decrease was driven

by lower import volumes

of fluid dairy products and

cheese by Iraq. This was

partially offset by an increase

in import volumes of WMP

and SMP by United Arab

Emirates.

Imports for the 12 months

to May were down 0.3%, or

16,640 MT, on the previous

comparable period. This was

driven by a decline in fluid

milk products and cultured

products, partially offset

by an increase in SMP and

infant formula.

China dairy import

volumes increased by

12.4%, or 31,797 MT, in June

compared to the same

period the year prior.

The increase was driven

by higher import volumes

of lactose from the US

and the EU, cheese from

New Zealand and EU, and

butter from New Zealand.

This was partially offset by a

decrease in demand for whey

and infant formula.

Imports for the 12 months

to June were down 13.0%, or

481,301 MT, on the previous

comparable period driven by

a decline in WMP and fluid

milk products.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%

%

%%

%

Change for May 2023

compared to May 2022

Change for June 2023

compared to June 2022

Change for May 2023

compared to May 2022

Change for May 2023

compared to May 2022

Change for the 12 months

to May 2023

Change for the 12 months

to May 2023

Change for the 12 months

to May 2023

12.44.118.5

5.40.3

%

Change for the 12 months

to June 2023

13.0

0.6

13.4

%

%

To view a table that shows
detailed milk collections in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%

%%

For the 2022/23 Season

compared to the previous season

Season-to-date

1 June to 30 June

Season-to-date

1 June to 30 June

Season-to-date

1 June to 30 June

Change for June 2023

compared to June 2022

Change for June 2023

compared to June 2022

Change for June 2023

compared to June 2022

Change for June 2023

compared to June 2022

0.25.23.21.2

0.35.23.21.2

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY



















5

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Milk Collections

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

New Zealand Milk Collections

Fonterra's Australia

collections for June were

6.5 million kgMS, a 0.2%

increase on June last season.

Collections increased in

June mainly due to the

recruitment of additional

farms in the F23 season.

This was partially offset

by higher‑than‑average

rainfall for June across

much of Northern/Western

Victoria and Tasmania,

impacting production.

Fonterra collections across

Australia for the full season

were 105.8 million kgMS, a

0.3% increase on last season.

North Island milk

collections in June were

11. 1 million kgMS, 3.2%

behind June last season.

Weather was mixed in

June, with continued rain

in the North Island causing

lower pasture utilisation in

preparation for calving.

South Island milk

collections in June were

3.6 million kgMS, 5.2% ahead

of last June.

The South Island has had

normal weather patterns

for this time of the season

compared to last year.

Fonterra's New Zealand

collections for June were

14.7 million kgMS, 1.2%

behind June last season.

As is normal for this time of

the season, collections for

June represent less than 1%

of the full season forecast.

Higher than usual collections

from the South Island were

partially offset by slightly

lower collections in the

North Island.

Farms are now preparing for

calving and ensuring animal

conditions and pasture

covers are strong going into

late winter.

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To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year‑to‑date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

JUL SEP DEC APR

JUL

NOV MAY FEB



, 

, 

,



,

,

.

.

.

.

.

.

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity prices and New Zealand

dollar trend

Risk appetite across financial markets has improved in recent

months as central bank policies designed to tame inflation

continue to gain traction. The result has been an extended

period of stability in many asset classes, including foreign

exchange. The NZD/USD exchange rate remained range‑bound

between 61 and 64 US cents.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

18 July 2023:

The next trading event will be held on 1 August 2023. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

0.6

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

3,337

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

23.9

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 3,955/MT

9.8

CHEDDAR

USD 4,745/MT

3.6

AMF

USD 3,100/MT

1.6

WMP

USD 2,528/MT

0.5

SMP

USD 4,705/MT

2.8

BUTTER

23,870

MT

LATEST AUCTION

614,698

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
Our Performance

Fonterra increases

emissions reduction

ambitions

On Thursday 20 July,

Fonterra announced a lift in

its decarbonisation ambition

with a new Scope 1&2

emissions reduction target

which will be achieved by

bringing forward some of its

work to get out of coal.

Fonterra CEO Miles Hurrell

says the Co‑op is targeting

a 50% absolute reduction

in Scope 1&2 emissions by

2030, from a 2018 baseline,

an increase on its previous

target of a 30% reduction

by 2030. “Fonterra’s Scope

1&2 emissions largely come

from our manufacturing

operations and supply chain.

Strengthening our emissions

reduction target supports

our ambition to be net zero

by 2050,” says Mr Hurrell.

Achieving the new target will

require Fonterra to continue

to undertake energy

efficiency improvements and

fuel switching to renewable

energy source activities

across its milk collection

fleet and manufacturing

sites, with a focus on the six

where it uses coal.

To do this, Fonterra is

forecasting an investment

of $790 million, including a

government contribution of

up to $90 million through

the Government Investment

in Decarbonising Industry

(GIDI) fund.

"As a Co‑op, Fonterra

understands how we can

achieve more by working

together. The addition

of government funding

enables us to lift our 2030

ambition to reduce Scope

1&2 emissions by 50% and

optimise our process to get

out of coal by 2037.

“Our decarbonisation plan

will see us explore multiple

technologies to ensure the

most efficient phase out

of coal and transition to

renewable energy across

our manufacturing sites,

while building resilience into

our operations.

“We are already well

underway with shifting our

manufacturing operations

to renewable energy

sources. Over the past five

years, we have carried out

decarbonisation projects

at five different sites and

we’re looking forward to

continuing this momentum.

“We’re currently assessing

biomass, electrification

and heat pump technology

A map of Fonterra’s current

and future decarbonisation

projects is available –

at our Clandeboye and

Edendale sites. We see

these technologies as the

best solutions possible at

this stage.

“Accelerating our plans will

help Fonterra continue to

present our customers with

the world’s lowest carbon

dairy at scale. It will also

contribute to New Zealand

meeting its climate targets

while delivering benefits

across regional New Zealand,

such as job opportunities

in local communities,” says

Mr Hurrell.

The Co‑op is currently talking

with farmers about a Scope 3

emissions target, which will

be announced shortly.

Fonterra’s climate targets

are aligned to the Science

Based Target initiative, which

means they’re aligned to

limiting global warming to

1.5 degrees. The process

of seeking accreditation

is underway.

Our Co-op
8

Celebrating hard work at the Best Site Cup Awards

On Thursday 22 June, almost

200 representatives from

Fonterra’s manufacturing

sites across New Zealand

came together to celebrate

their achievements at the

annual Best Site Cup awards.

Following virtual events

over previous years, it was

wonderful for the sites to

celebrate their successes in‑

person this year, in Auckland.

Fonterra’s manufacturing

sites employ 7000 people

from 26 communities across

New Zealand. They work

hard every day to transform

Fonterra farmers’ milk into

a variety of products that

are beloved nationally and

internationally.

The Best Site Cup awards are

a great opportunity to take

the time to recognise the

effort teams have put in and

highlight their achievements.

Southland’s Edendale site

was the big winner of

the night, securing Best

Large Site Cup, Quality

Cup, and the Japan Protein

Award. Edendale’s strong

quality results and food

safety culture gave them

the winning edge for the

Best Large Site Cup. The

award also recognised the

site’s dedication to their

people – for instance,

Edendale facilitates a

women’s lean‑in group,

which is an opportunity for

the women of Edendale to

meet regularly and support

one another to achieve

their goals.

Central North Island site,

Pahiatua, was awarded the

Best Medium Site Cup in

recognition of their great

focus on people and culture,

community engagement,

and consistency in producing

high spec products.

A reduction in waste to

landfill by more than 30%

helped the Central North

Island’s Reporoa scoop the

Sustainability Cup along

with the highly coveted Best

Small Site.

Alan van der Nagel,

Fonterra’s Director of

New Zealand Manufacturing,

says all 26 sites should be

incredibly proud of work they

have achieved over the past

year. “Our team has been

unflappable. The last year

hasn’t been easy – it’s

tough to juggle milk

supply with unpredictable

weather events and post‑

COVID supply chain issues,

but everyone’s made a

huge effort.”

AWARDWINNERRUNNER‑UP

Health and Safety Cup Studholme Reporoa

People Cup Kauri Pahiatua

Sustainability CupReporoa Te Awamutu

Productivity Cup Maungaturoto Waitoa, Pahiatua

Quality Cup Edendale Brightwater

Customer Cup Canpac Stirling

Compliance Cup Stirling Takaka

Transport Award (TAMS) Te Awamutu Reporoa

Best Small Site ReporoaStirling

Best Medium Site Pahiatua Te Awamutu

Best Large Site Edendale Darfield

Best Speciality Site Waitoa UHTCanpac

Director’s Cup Brightwater

Transformation CupLichfield Eltham

Fuel Efficiency ShieldTe RapaEdgecumbe

Japan Cheese CupLichfield

Japan Protein CupEdendale MPC

Greater China CEO Quality Star

Milk Powder Plant

Pahiatua

Greater China CEO Quality Star

Cheese Plant

Clandeboye

Greater China CEO Quality Star

Butter Plant

Te Rapa

Greater China CEO Quality Star

Protein Plant

Maungaturoto

Greater China CEO Quality Star

UHT Milk and Cream Plant

Waitoa UHT

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL 

JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES













EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s













AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT 

MT s

















AVERAGE

9


Supplementary Information

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year‑on‑year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to May; New Zealand and US to June.

NOTE: Data for EU, US and Australia to May; New Zealand to June.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa, Latin America to May; and China to June.

SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR

JAN

OCT FEB

JUL

AUG MAY

SEP NOV DEC JUN

,
,

,

,

,
,

,

,
,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT

QUANTITY SOLD  MT

10


Supplementary Information

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

JUNE

2023

JUNE


2022

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2023/24

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2022/23

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

14.714.9(1.2%)14.714.9(1.2%)

North Island11. 111. 5(3.2%)11. 111. 5(3.2%)

South Island3.63.45.2%3.63.45.2%

JUNE

2023

JUNE


2022

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2022/23

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2021/22

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Australia6.56.50.2%105.8105.50.3%

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year‑to‑date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(18 JULY 2023)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2022)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

23,870614,698

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

7.6%2.7%

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

3,3373,598

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

(20.4%)(18.4%)

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

(0.6%)–

Fonterra GDT results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

11
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

Cultured Products

Fermented milks that are

prepared by using starter

cultures and controlled

fermentation including

yoghurt, yoghurt drinks, sour

cream, crème fraiche.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non‑Reference Products

All dairy products,

except for Reference

Products, produced

by the New Zealand

Ingredients business.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.


Glossary

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate.

WPI

Whey Protein Isolate.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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