Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited logo

Global Dairy Update August 2023

Operational Update31 August 2023FCGConsumer Staples

• Fonterra provided an update on FY23 earnings guidance and
FY24 forecast Farmgate Milk Price.

1

Global Dairy

UPDATE

• New Zealand and US monthly production

decreased. Australia and EU monthly

production increased.

• EU monthly exports increased. New Zealand,

Australia and US monthly exports decreased.

• Latin America and Middle East & Africa

monthly imports increased. China and Asia

monthly imports decreased.

• Early season collections in New Zealand

and Australia.

• Fonterra gets behind on-farm health and safety initiative.

Key Dates

21 September 2023

FY23 Annual Results Announcement

9 November 2023

Fonterra Co-operative Group Annual Meeting

AUGUST 2023

%
%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for July 2023

compared to July 2022

Change for July 2023

compared to July 2022

Change for June 2023

compared to June 2022

Change for June 2023

compared to June 2022

Change for the 12 months

to July 2023

Change for the 12 months

to July 2023

Change for the 12 months

to June 2023

Change for the 12 months

to June 2023

0.61.20.9

5.00.80.7

0.0

0.4

2

OUR MARKETS

Global Production

New Zealand and US

monthly production

decreased. Australia

and EU monthly

production increased

New Zealand milk

production¹ was down

0.9% on a litres basis, (down

0.1% on milk solids basis) in

July compared to the same

period the year prior.

As is normal for this time

of the season, production

is typically very low and

represents around 2% of the

total season's production.

New Zealand milk

production for the 12

months to July was down

0.4% on the previous

comparable period.

Fonterra New Zealand

collections are reported for

July, see page 5 for details.

Australia milk

production increased 1.2%

in June compared to the

same period the year prior.

Production increased

year-on-year due to weather

conditions in Northern

Victoria and Gippsland

remaining favourable.

Australia milk production for

the 12 months to June was

down 5.0% on the previous

comparable period

Fonterra collections in

Australia are reported for

July, see page 5 for details.

EU milk production² in

June was in line with June the

year prior.

Production increased in

Germany, Poland and the

Netherlands. This was offset

by decreases in France

and Italy.

EU milk production for

the 12 months to June was

up 0.8% on the previous

comparable period.

The production increase

was mainly due to Germany,

Netherlands and Poland, and

partially offset by decreases

in France, Italy and Spain.

US milk production

decreased 0.6% in July

compared to the same

period the year prior.

Declining yields and cow

numbers resulted in a decline

in production year-on-year.

Milk production for the

12 months to July increased

0.7% on the previous

comparable period.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.

2 Excludes UK.

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

Global Exports

EU monthly exports

increased. New Zealand,

Australia and US monthly

exports decreased

Total New Zealand dairy

exports decreased 6.8%, or

18,527 MT, in July compared

to the same period the

year prior.

The decrease was mainly due

to lower exported volumes of

WMP and SMP to China and

Southeast Asia.

Exports for the 12 months

to July were up 5.2%, or

172,465 MT, on the previous

comparable period. This was

mainly due to increases in

SMP, cheese, AMF, butter

and cultured products,

partially offset by decreases

in WMP.

EU dairy exports

increased 2.6%, or 17,210  MT,

in June compared to the

same period the year prior.

The increase was mainly

due to higher volumes of

SMP and WMP. This was

partially offset by a decrease

in export volumes of fluid

milk products.

Exports for the 12 months

to June were down 4.3%, or

491,759 MT, on the previous

comparable period. This was

mainly due to lower exported

volumes of fluid milk

products, cheese and WMP,

partially offset by higher

volumes of infant formula,

SMP and cultured products.

US dairy exports

decreased 14.6%, or

38,647 MT, in June compared

to the same period the

year prior.

The decrease was mainly due

to lower volumes of whey to

China, cheese to South Korea

and fluid milk products and

butter to Canada.

Exports for the 12 months

to June were up 0.2%, or

6,563 MT, on the previous

comparable period. This

was mainly due to higher

exported volumes of lactose,

WPC and MPC, and partially

offset by lower volumes of

fluid milk products and SMP.

Australia dairy exports

decreased 35.0%, or

26,110 MT, in June compared

to the same period the

year prior.

The decrease in exports

continued the trend over the

past seven months and was

mainly due to lower exported

volumes of fluid milk

products, SMP and cheese.

Exports for the 12 months to

June were down 28.5%, or

269,249 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was mainly due to lower

exported volumes of fluid

milk products, SMP, cheese

and WMP.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

%%%

%

%

%

Change for July 2023

compared July 2022

Change for June 2023

compared to June 2022

Change for June 2023

compared to June 2022

Change for June 2023

compared to June 2022

Change for the 12 months

to June 2023

Change for the 12 months

to June 2023

Change for the 12 months

to July 2023

Change for the 12 months

to June 2023

14.635.0

6.8

2.6

0.228.54.35.2

%

%

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

Global Imports

Latin America and Middle

East & Africa monthly

imports increased.

China and Asia monthly

imports decreased

Latin America dairy

import volumes¹ increased

8.4%, or 16,341 MT, in June

compared to the same period

the year prior.

The increase was mainly due

to higher volumes of WMP by

Brazil, and WPC by Chile.

Imports for the 12 months

to June were up 13.0%, or

275,279 MT, on the previous

comparable period, mainly due

to higher volumes of WMP,

SMP, cheese and AMF.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 5.6%, or 25,610 MT,

in June compared to the same

period the year prior.

The decrease was mainly due

to lower volumes of SMP, infant

formula and lactose, partially

offset by an increase in WMP

and whey.

Imports for the 12 months

to June were down 6.3%, or

327,180 MT, on the previous

comparable period. This was

mainly due to lower volumes

of SMP, fluid milk products,

cheese and WMP.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

increased 4.9%, or 22,365 MT,

in June compared to the same

period the year prior.

The increase was mainly due

to higher volumes of SMP to

Algeria and Saudi Arabia, and

WMP to Algeria and United

Arab Emirates. This was partially

offset by lower volumes of

fluid milk products to Iraq and

United Arab Emirates.

Imports for the 12 months

to June were down 0.8%, or

46,462 MT, on the previous

comparable period. This

was mainly due to lower

volumes of fluid milk products,

cultured products, cheese and

butter, and partially offset by

higher volumes of SMP and

infant formula.

China dairy import

volumes decreased by 3.2%,

or 8,471 MT, in July compared to

the same period the year prior.

The decrease was driven by

lower import volumes of infant

formula and fluid milk products

due to excess domestic supply.

This was partially offset by an

increase in demand for WMP

and cheese, but WMP from the

prior period was a relatively

weaker amount.

Imports for the 12 months

to July were down 11.2%, or

406,876MT, on the previous

comparable period mainly

due to a decline in fluid milk

products and WMP, partially

offset by whey.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%

%

%%

%

Change for June 2023

compared to June 2022

Change for July 2023

compared to July 2022

Change for June 2023

compared to June 2022

Change for June 2023

compared to June 2022

Change for the 12 months

to June 2023

Change for the 12 months

to June 2023

Change for the 12 months

to June 2023

3.25.68.4

6.30.8

%

Change for the 12 months

to July 2023

11.2

4.9

13.0

%

%

To view a table that shows
detailed milk collections in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%

%%

Season-to-date

1 July to 31 July

Season-to-date

1 June to 31 July

Season-to-date

1 June to 31 July

Season-to-date

1 June to 31 July

Change for July 2023

compared to July 2022

Change for July 2023

compared to July 2022

Change for July 2023

compared to July 2022

Change for July 2023

compared to July 2022

6.32.00.80.9

6.32.71.60.9

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY



















5

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Milk Collections

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

New Zealand Milk Collections

Fonterra's Australia

collections for the first

month of the new season

were 5.6 million kgMS, 6.3%

ahead on July last season.

Collections increased in

July mainly due to the

recruitment of additional

farms in the 2022/23 season,

additional third party

volumes and a return to

normal weather patterns.

North Island milk

collection in July was

17.1 million kgMS, 0.8%

behind July last season.

Total season-to-date

collections were 28.2 million

kgMS, 1.6% behind

last season.

Weather was mixed in

July, with continued rain in

the North Island causing

lower pasture utilisation in

preparation for calving.

South Island milk

collection in July was

1.8 million kgMS, 2.0%

behind July last season.

Total season-to-date

collections were 5.4 million

kgMS, 2.7% ahead of

last season.

The South Island has had

normal weather patterns for

this time of the season.

Fonterra's New Zealand

collections for July were

18.9 million kgMS, 0.9%

behind July last season.

As is normal for this time of

the season, collections for

July represent less than 2%

of the full season forecast.

July production was slightly

behind previous seasons,

with lower collections

in both the North and

South Island.

Total season-to-date

collections were 33.6 million

kgMS, 0.9% behind

last season.

Farms are now preparing

for calving and aiming for

good animal conditions and

pasture cover.

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To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

AUG  OCT JAN  MAY  AUG  NOV  JUN MAR 





, 

, 

,

,

.

.

.

.

.

.

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity prices and New Zealand

dollar trend

Sentiment across financial markets has been balanced between

a surprisingly resilient US economy and a lacklustre economic

scorecard from China, with the NZD being more affected

by the later and the associated weakness of the Chinese

Yuan. Furthermore, New Zealand’s own insipid economic

performance, together with weakening prices for our primary

products exports, also weighed on the exchange rate – the

NZD fell to below 60 US cents.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

15 August 2023:

The next trading event will be held on 5 September 2023. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

8.0

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

2,889

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

32.6

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 2,548/MT

11.0

WMP

USD 4,127/MT

5.6

CHEDDAR

USD 2,329/MT

5.1

SMP

USD 4,539/MT

3.0

BUTTER

USD 4,452/MT

5.4

AMF

32,583

MT

LATEST AUCTION

63,294

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
Our Performance

Fonterra provided

an update on FY23

earnings guidance

and FY24 forecast

Farmgate Milk Price

On Friday 11 August Fonterra

Co-operative Group provided

an update on its forecast

normalised earnings for FY23

and full year dividend.

CEO Miles Hurrell says while

the Co-op is still in the

process of finalising and

having its FY23 numbers

audited, it expects to end

the year at the top end of its

forecast range of 65-80 cents

per share.

“Fonterra has reported

strong earnings through

FY23 off the back of

favourable Ingredients

margins. As we close out our

books, we’re in a position

to provide further guidance

on where we expect to end

the year.

“Furthermore, we expect to

pay a full year dividend at

the top end of our dividend

policy, which is 40-60% of

normalised earnings,” says

Mr Hurrell.

The full year dividend

comprises the interim

dividend of 10 cents per

share already paid, plus the

final dividend expected to be

paid in October.

Fonterra will confirm its

final FY23 earnings and

full year dividend when it

reports its financial results

in September.

On Friday 18 August Fonterra

Co-operative Group reduced

its 2023/24 season forecast

Farmgate Milk Price range

from $6.25-$7.75 per kgMS,

with a midpoint of $7.00 per

kgMS, to $6.00-$7.50 per

kgMS with a midpoint of

$6.75 per kgMS.

Fonterra CEO Miles Hurrell

says Global Dairy Trade

(GDT) prices have continued

to fall since it revised its

Farmgate Milk Price earlier

this month, requiring the

Co-op to reduce its midpoint

by a further 25 cents.

“GDT prices have fallen

sharply since we released

our opening forecast for

the season in May, with the

overall index down 16% over

that period.

“While our wide forecast

range assumed movement

in GDT prices, whole milk

powder prices fell 10.9%

in the most recent trading

event requiring us to revise

our position again.

“Reduced demand from

key importing regions

for whole milk powder is

continuing to weigh on

prices. While indications

are demand will start to

return over the second half

of FY24, we do expect the

pace of demand growth

to be subdued relative to

initial expectations.

“In the meantime, we will

continue to respond to

market signals and adjust our

forecast Farmgate Milk Price

to ensure that the impact of

current prices and currency

movements is transparent.

“This is a challenging time for

New Zealand’s dairy farmers

and the Co-op is doing all it

can to support its farmers,”

says Mr Hurrell.

Fonterra gets behind
on-farm health and

safety initiative

Fonterra is joining with

other organisations across

New Zealand’s agricultural

sector to get behind a

new initiative aimed at

ensuring better health

and safety outcomes for

farming communities.

Farm Without Harm is an

industry-wide strategy and

action plan to drive practical

changes that prevent

physical and mental harm to

those working on farms. It

has been developed by the

Agricultural Leaders’ Health

and Safety Action Group

(Safer Farms), which Fonterra

has been an active member

of for the past few years,

and includes a pledge that

organisations and farmers

can sign to show their

commitment to the cause.

Anne Douglas, Group

Director for Fonterra Farm

Source, says a number of

Co-op leaders have signed

the pledge including

CEO Miles Hurrell and

the team that manage

Fonterra-owned farms.

“We’re fully supportive

of this initiative because

nothing is more important

than people getting home

from work safely each day,”

says Douglas.

“Unfortunately there’s

still too many injuries and

fatalities happening on farms

across Aotearoa, so we need

a concerted and collective

effort to address this.”

Fonterra’s General Manager

of Farming Operations

Matthew Roach says

it’s important to lead by

example. “We’ve got our own

Fonterra farms across the

country – predominantly

in and around our

manufacturing sites – and

we take our responsibilities

seriously in terms of

managing the risks and

hazards we have on farm to

make sure people go home

safe,” says Roach.

Safer Farms Chair

Lindy Nelson says the

cost of producing food in

New Zealand is too high,

with 13 farmers losing their

lives on farms last year and

more than 2,000 suffering

serious injuries that forced

them off work for a week

or more.

Douglas says that as the

farmer-facing part of the

Co-op it’s important for Farm

Source to work closely with

Safer Farms.

“We want to play our part

to deliver the outcomes

this Farm Without Harm

strategy is aiming to achieve.

Working in a coordinated

way across the industry often

leads to the best results,”

adds Douglas.

Like all parts of the

Co-operative, Farm Source

puts considerable effort and

focus on health and safety.

Having a Health and Safety

Plan is a critical part of

Fonterra’s farmer recognition

framework known as The

Co-operative Difference.

There are also minimum

standards that are set out

in the terms and conditions

of supply that farmers need

to meet and which are

communicated with them

each year.

The Farm Source team work

alongside farmers, providing

tailored support to help

them meet the standards.

Farm Source is also currently

in the middle of a three-

year collaboration with

the Rural Support Trust to

improve access to well-being

and resilience services for

farming families.

Our Co-op

8

Here’s one more way,

we’re supporting

NZ farming.

(BRAND Y)

Add your voice at farmwithoutharm.org.nz

To learn more about Farm

Without Harm –

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL 

JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES













EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s















AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT 

MT s

















AVERAGE

9


Supplementary Information

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to June; New Zealand and US to July.

NOTE: Data for EU, US and Australia to June; New Zealand to July.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa, Latin America to June; and China to July.

SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR

JAN

OCT FEB

JUL

AUG

MAY

SEP NOV DEC JUN

,
,

,

,

,
,

,

,
,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT

QUANTITY SOLD  MT

10


Supplementary Information

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

J U LY

2023

J U LY


2022

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2023/24

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2022/23

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

18.919.0(0.9%)33.633.9(0.9%)

North Island17.117.2(0.8%)28.228.7(1.6%)

South Island1.81.8(2.0%)5.45.22.7%

Australia5.65.36.3%5.65.36.3%

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(15 AUGUST 2023)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2023)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

32,58363,294

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

11. 4%12.8%

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

2,8893,010

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

(23.6%)(21.8%)

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

(8.0%)–

Fonterra GDT results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

11
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

Cultured Products

Fermented milks that are

prepared by using starter

cultures and controlled

fermentation including

yoghurt, yoghurt drinks, sour

cream, crème fraiche.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products,

except for Reference

Products, produced

by the New Zealand

Ingredients business.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.


Glossary

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate.

WPI

Whey Protein Isolate.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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    2023-09-28

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