Global Dairy Update August 2023
• Fonterra provided an update on FY23 earnings guidance and
FY24 forecast Farmgate Milk Price.
1
Global Dairy
UPDATE
• New Zealand and US monthly production
decreased. Australia and EU monthly
production increased.
• EU monthly exports increased. New Zealand,
Australia and US monthly exports decreased.
• Latin America and Middle East & Africa
monthly imports increased. China and Asia
monthly imports decreased.
• Early season collections in New Zealand
and Australia.
• Fonterra gets behind on-farm health and safety initiative.
Key Dates
21 September 2023
FY23 Annual Results Announcement
9 November 2023
Fonterra Co-operative Group Annual Meeting
AUGUST 2023
%
%
%%
%
%
%%
Change for July 2023
compared to July 2022
Change for July 2023
compared to July 2022
Change for June 2023
compared to June 2022
Change for June 2023
compared to June 2022
Change for the 12 months
to July 2023
Change for the 12 months
to July 2023
Change for the 12 months
to June 2023
Change for the 12 months
to June 2023
0.61.20.9
5.00.80.7
0.0
0.4
2
OUR MARKETS
Global Production
New Zealand and US
monthly production
decreased. Australia
and EU monthly
production increased
New Zealand milk
production¹ was down
0.9% on a litres basis, (down
0.1% on milk solids basis) in
July compared to the same
period the year prior.
As is normal for this time
of the season, production
is typically very low and
represents around 2% of the
total season's production.
New Zealand milk
production for the 12
months to July was down
0.4% on the previous
comparable period.
Fonterra New Zealand
collections are reported for
July, see page 5 for details.
Australia milk
production increased 1.2%
in June compared to the
same period the year prior.
Production increased
year-on-year due to weather
conditions in Northern
Victoria and Gippsland
remaining favourable.
Australia milk production for
the 12 months to June was
down 5.0% on the previous
comparable period
Fonterra collections in
Australia are reported for
July, see page 5 for details.
EU milk production² in
June was in line with June the
year prior.
Production increased in
Germany, Poland and the
Netherlands. This was offset
by decreases in France
and Italy.
EU milk production for
the 12 months to June was
up 0.8% on the previous
comparable period.
The production increase
was mainly due to Germany,
Netherlands and Poland, and
partially offset by decreases
in France, Italy and Spain.
US milk production
decreased 0.6% in July
compared to the same
period the year prior.
Declining yields and cow
numbers resulted in a decline
in production year-on-year.
Milk production for the
12 months to July increased
0.7% on the previous
comparable period.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in production –
1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.
2 Excludes UK.
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in exports –
3
OUR MARKETS
Global Exports
EU monthly exports
increased. New Zealand,
Australia and US monthly
exports decreased
Total New Zealand dairy
exports decreased 6.8%, or
18,527 MT, in July compared
to the same period the
year prior.
The decrease was mainly due
to lower exported volumes of
WMP and SMP to China and
Southeast Asia.
Exports for the 12 months
to July were up 5.2%, or
172,465 MT, on the previous
comparable period. This was
mainly due to increases in
SMP, cheese, AMF, butter
and cultured products,
partially offset by decreases
in WMP.
EU dairy exports
increased 2.6%, or 17,210 MT,
in June compared to the
same period the year prior.
The increase was mainly
due to higher volumes of
SMP and WMP. This was
partially offset by a decrease
in export volumes of fluid
milk products.
Exports for the 12 months
to June were down 4.3%, or
491,759 MT, on the previous
comparable period. This was
mainly due to lower exported
volumes of fluid milk
products, cheese and WMP,
partially offset by higher
volumes of infant formula,
SMP and cultured products.
US dairy exports
decreased 14.6%, or
38,647 MT, in June compared
to the same period the
year prior.
The decrease was mainly due
to lower volumes of whey to
China, cheese to South Korea
and fluid milk products and
butter to Canada.
Exports for the 12 months
to June were up 0.2%, or
6,563 MT, on the previous
comparable period. This
was mainly due to higher
exported volumes of lactose,
WPC and MPC, and partially
offset by lower volumes of
fluid milk products and SMP.
Australia dairy exports
decreased 35.0%, or
26,110 MT, in June compared
to the same period the
year prior.
The decrease in exports
continued the trend over the
past seven months and was
mainly due to lower exported
volumes of fluid milk
products, SMP and cheese.
Exports for the 12 months to
June were down 28.5%, or
269,249 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to lower
exported volumes of fluid
milk products, SMP, cheese
and WMP.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
%%%
%
%
%
Change for July 2023
compared July 2022
Change for June 2023
compared to June 2022
Change for June 2023
compared to June 2022
Change for June 2023
compared to June 2022
Change for the 12 months
to June 2023
Change for the 12 months
to June 2023
Change for the 12 months
to July 2023
Change for the 12 months
to June 2023
14.635.0
6.8
2.6
0.228.54.35.2
%
%
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in imports –
4
OUR MARKETS
Global Imports
Latin America and Middle
East & Africa monthly
imports increased.
China and Asia monthly
imports decreased
Latin America dairy
import volumes¹ increased
8.4%, or 16,341 MT, in June
compared to the same period
the year prior.
The increase was mainly due
to higher volumes of WMP by
Brazil, and WPC by Chile.
Imports for the 12 months
to June were up 13.0%, or
275,279 MT, on the previous
comparable period, mainly due
to higher volumes of WMP,
SMP, cheese and AMF.
Asia (excluding China)
dairy import volumes¹
decreased 5.6%, or 25,610 MT,
in June compared to the same
period the year prior.
The decrease was mainly due
to lower volumes of SMP, infant
formula and lactose, partially
offset by an increase in WMP
and whey.
Imports for the 12 months
to June were down 6.3%, or
327,180 MT, on the previous
comparable period. This was
mainly due to lower volumes
of SMP, fluid milk products,
cheese and WMP.
Middle East and Africa
dairy import volumes¹
increased 4.9%, or 22,365 MT,
in June compared to the same
period the year prior.
The increase was mainly due
to higher volumes of SMP to
Algeria and Saudi Arabia, and
WMP to Algeria and United
Arab Emirates. This was partially
offset by lower volumes of
fluid milk products to Iraq and
United Arab Emirates.
Imports for the 12 months
to June were down 0.8%, or
46,462 MT, on the previous
comparable period. This
was mainly due to lower
volumes of fluid milk products,
cultured products, cheese and
butter, and partially offset by
higher volumes of SMP and
infant formula.
China dairy import
volumes decreased by 3.2%,
or 8,471 MT, in July compared to
the same period the year prior.
The decrease was driven by
lower import volumes of infant
formula and fluid milk products
due to excess domestic supply.
This was partially offset by an
increase in demand for WMP
and cheese, but WMP from the
prior period was a relatively
weaker amount.
Imports for the 12 months
to July were down 11.2%, or
406,876MT, on the previous
comparable period mainly
due to a decline in fluid milk
products and WMP, partially
offset by whey.
LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA
1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.
%
%
%%
%
Change for June 2023
compared to June 2022
Change for July 2023
compared to July 2022
Change for June 2023
compared to June 2022
Change for June 2023
compared to June 2022
Change for the 12 months
to June 2023
Change for the 12 months
to June 2023
Change for the 12 months
to June 2023
3.25.68.4
6.30.8
%
Change for the 12 months
to July 2023
11.2
4.9
13.0
%
%
To view a table that shows
detailed milk collections in New
Zealand and Australia compared
to the previous season –
%
%%
Season-to-date
1 July to 31 July
Season-to-date
1 June to 31 July
Season-to-date
1 June to 31 July
Season-to-date
1 June to 31 July
Change for July 2023
compared to July 2022
Change for July 2023
compared to July 2022
Change for July 2023
compared to July 2022
Change for July 2023
compared to July 2022
6.32.00.80.9
6.32.71.60.9
VOLUME M LITRESDAY
JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
5
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Milk Collections
NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA
New Zealand Milk Collections
Fonterra's Australia
collections for the first
month of the new season
were 5.6 million kgMS, 6.3%
ahead on July last season.
Collections increased in
July mainly due to the
recruitment of additional
farms in the 2022/23 season,
additional third party
volumes and a return to
normal weather patterns.
North Island milk
collection in July was
17.1 million kgMS, 0.8%
behind July last season.
Total season-to-date
collections were 28.2 million
kgMS, 1.6% behind
last season.
Weather was mixed in
July, with continued rain in
the North Island causing
lower pasture utilisation in
preparation for calving.
South Island milk
collection in July was
1.8 million kgMS, 2.0%
behind July last season.
Total season-to-date
collections were 5.4 million
kgMS, 2.7% ahead of
last season.
The South Island has had
normal weather patterns for
this time of the season.
Fonterra's New Zealand
collections for July were
18.9 million kgMS, 0.9%
behind July last season.
As is normal for this time of
the season, collections for
July represent less than 2%
of the full season forecast.
July production was slightly
behind previous seasons,
with lower collections
in both the North and
South Island.
Total season-to-date
collections were 33.6 million
kgMS, 0.9% behind
last season.
Farms are now preparing
for calving and aiming for
good animal conditions and
pasture cover.
%%%
%
%
%
%%%
%
To view more information,
including a snapshot of the
rolling year-to-date results –
%
6
GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE
AUG
OCT JAN MAY AUG NOV
JUN MAR
,
,
,
,
.
.
.
.
.
.
PRICE INDEX
NZD USD
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results
Fonterra GDT sales
by destination:
Dairy commodity prices and New Zealand
dollar trend
Sentiment across financial markets has been balanced between
a surprisingly resilient US economy and a lacklustre economic
scorecard from China, with the NZD being more affected
by the later and the associated weakness of the Chinese
Yuan. Furthermore, New Zealand’s own insipid economic
performance, together with weakening prices for our primary
products exports, also weighed on the exchange rate – the
NZD fell to below 60 US cents.
Fonterra GDT results at
last trading event
15 August 2023:
The next trading event will be held on 5 September 2023. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.
Change in Fonterra’s
weighted average product
price from previous event
8.0
Fonterra’s weighted
average product price
(USD/MT)
2,889
USD
Fonterra product quantity
sold on GDT
000’ MT
32.6
NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)
SOUTH EAST ASIA
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
OTHER
USD 2,548/MT
11.0
WMP
USD 4,127/MT
5.6
CHEDDAR
USD 2,329/MT
5.1
SMP
USD 4,539/MT
3.0
BUTTER
USD 4,452/MT
5.4
AMF
32,583
MT
LATEST AUCTION
63,294
MT
FINANCIAL
YEAR‑TO‑DATE
7
Our Performance
Fonterra provided
an update on FY23
earnings guidance
and FY24 forecast
Farmgate Milk Price
On Friday 11 August Fonterra
Co-operative Group provided
an update on its forecast
normalised earnings for FY23
and full year dividend.
CEO Miles Hurrell says while
the Co-op is still in the
process of finalising and
having its FY23 numbers
audited, it expects to end
the year at the top end of its
forecast range of 65-80 cents
per share.
“Fonterra has reported
strong earnings through
FY23 off the back of
favourable Ingredients
margins. As we close out our
books, we’re in a position
to provide further guidance
on where we expect to end
the year.
“Furthermore, we expect to
pay a full year dividend at
the top end of our dividend
policy, which is 40-60% of
normalised earnings,” says
Mr Hurrell.
The full year dividend
comprises the interim
dividend of 10 cents per
share already paid, plus the
final dividend expected to be
paid in October.
Fonterra will confirm its
final FY23 earnings and
full year dividend when it
reports its financial results
in September.
On Friday 18 August Fonterra
Co-operative Group reduced
its 2023/24 season forecast
Farmgate Milk Price range
from $6.25-$7.75 per kgMS,
with a midpoint of $7.00 per
kgMS, to $6.00-$7.50 per
kgMS with a midpoint of
$6.75 per kgMS.
Fonterra CEO Miles Hurrell
says Global Dairy Trade
(GDT) prices have continued
to fall since it revised its
Farmgate Milk Price earlier
this month, requiring the
Co-op to reduce its midpoint
by a further 25 cents.
“GDT prices have fallen
sharply since we released
our opening forecast for
the season in May, with the
overall index down 16% over
that period.
“While our wide forecast
range assumed movement
in GDT prices, whole milk
powder prices fell 10.9%
in the most recent trading
event requiring us to revise
our position again.
“Reduced demand from
key importing regions
for whole milk powder is
continuing to weigh on
prices. While indications
are demand will start to
return over the second half
of FY24, we do expect the
pace of demand growth
to be subdued relative to
initial expectations.
“In the meantime, we will
continue to respond to
market signals and adjust our
forecast Farmgate Milk Price
to ensure that the impact of
current prices and currency
movements is transparent.
“This is a challenging time for
New Zealand’s dairy farmers
and the Co-op is doing all it
can to support its farmers,”
says Mr Hurrell.
Fonterra gets behind
on-farm health and
safety initiative
Fonterra is joining with
other organisations across
New Zealand’s agricultural
sector to get behind a
new initiative aimed at
ensuring better health
and safety outcomes for
farming communities.
Farm Without Harm is an
industry-wide strategy and
action plan to drive practical
changes that prevent
physical and mental harm to
those working on farms. It
has been developed by the
Agricultural Leaders’ Health
and Safety Action Group
(Safer Farms), which Fonterra
has been an active member
of for the past few years,
and includes a pledge that
organisations and farmers
can sign to show their
commitment to the cause.
Anne Douglas, Group
Director for Fonterra Farm
Source, says a number of
Co-op leaders have signed
the pledge including
CEO Miles Hurrell and
the team that manage
Fonterra-owned farms.
“We’re fully supportive
of this initiative because
nothing is more important
than people getting home
from work safely each day,”
says Douglas.
“Unfortunately there’s
still too many injuries and
fatalities happening on farms
across Aotearoa, so we need
a concerted and collective
effort to address this.”
Fonterra’s General Manager
of Farming Operations
Matthew Roach says
it’s important to lead by
example. “We’ve got our own
Fonterra farms across the
country – predominantly
in and around our
manufacturing sites – and
we take our responsibilities
seriously in terms of
managing the risks and
hazards we have on farm to
make sure people go home
safe,” says Roach.
Safer Farms Chair
Lindy Nelson says the
cost of producing food in
New Zealand is too high,
with 13 farmers losing their
lives on farms last year and
more than 2,000 suffering
serious injuries that forced
them off work for a week
or more.
Douglas says that as the
farmer-facing part of the
Co-op it’s important for Farm
Source to work closely with
Safer Farms.
“We want to play our part
to deliver the outcomes
this Farm Without Harm
strategy is aiming to achieve.
Working in a coordinated
way across the industry often
leads to the best results,”
adds Douglas.
Like all parts of the
Co-operative, Farm Source
puts considerable effort and
focus on health and safety.
Having a Health and Safety
Plan is a critical part of
Fonterra’s farmer recognition
framework known as The
Co-operative Difference.
There are also minimum
standards that are set out
in the terms and conditions
of supply that farmers need
to meet and which are
communicated with them
each year.
The Farm Source team work
alongside farmers, providing
tailored support to help
them meet the standards.
Farm Source is also currently
in the middle of a three-
year collaboration with
the Rural Support Trust to
improve access to well-being
and resilience services for
farming families.
Our Co-op
8
Here’s one more way,
we’re supporting
NZ farming.
(BRAND Y)
Add your voice at farmwithoutharm.org.nz
To learn more about Farm
Without Harm –
PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
DEC JUL
JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR
LIQUID MILK M LITRES
EXPORTS
AUSTRALIA
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY
MT s
AVERAGE
IMPORTS
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA
ASIACHINA
SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT
MT s
AVERAGE
9
Supplementary Information
Global Dairy Market
The charts on the right
illustrate the year-on-year
changes in imports, exports
and production for a range of
countries that are important
players in global dairy trade.
The absolute size of
the bars represents the
change in imports, exports
or production, relative
to the same period the
previous year.
Averages are shown where
data is complete for the
regions presented.
NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to June; New Zealand and US to July.
NOTE: Data for EU, US and Australia to June; New Zealand to July.
NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa, Latin America to June; and China to July.
SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR
MAR
JAN
OCT FEB
JUL
AUG
MAY
SEP NOV DEC JUN
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD MT
10
Supplementary Information
Fonterra milk
production
The table on the right
shows Fonterra milk solids
collected in New Zealand
and Australia compared
to the previous season.
MILK COLLECTION
(MILLION KGMS)
J U LY
2023
J U LY
2022
MONTHLY
CHANGE
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2023/24
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2022/23
SEASON-
TO-DATE
CHANGE
Total Fonterra
New Zealand
18.919.0(0.9%)33.633.9(0.9%)
North Island17.117.2(0.8%)28.228.7(1.6%)
South Island1.81.8(2.0%)5.45.22.7%
Australia5.65.36.3%5.65.36.3%
Fonterra GDT results
This table provides more
information on the latest
results, including a snapshot
of the year-to-date results.
LAST TRADING EVENT
(15 AUGUST 2023)
YEAR-TO-DATE
(FROM 1 AUGUST 2023)
Quantity Sold on GDT
(Winning MT)
32,58363,294
Change in Quantity Sold on GDT
over same period last year
11. 4%12.8%
Weighted Average Product Price
(USD/MT)
2,8893,010
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price over same period
last year
(23.6%)(21.8%)
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price from previous event
(8.0%)–
Fonterra GDT results
This chart shows Fonterra
GDT prices and volumes over
the past 12 months.
11
AMF
Anhydrous Milk Fat.
BMP
Butter Milk Powder.
Cultured Products
Fermented milks that are
prepared by using starter
cultures and controlled
fermentation including
yoghurt, yoghurt drinks, sour
cream, crème fraiche.
DIRA
Dairy Industry Restructuring
Act 2001 (New Zealand).
Farmgate Milk Price
The price for milk supplied in
New Zealand to Fonterra by
farmer shareholders.
Fluid Products
The Fonterra grouping
of fluid milk products
(skim milk, whole milk
and cream – pasteurised
or UHT processed),
concentrated milk products
(evaporated milk and
sweetened condensed milk)
and yoghurt.
GDT
Global Dairy Trade, the
online provider of the twice
monthly global auctions of
dairy ingredients.
kgMS
Kilogram of milk solids, the
measure of the amount of
fat and protein in the milk
supplied to Fonterra.
MPC
Milk Protein Concentrate.
Non-Reference Products
All dairy products,
except for Reference
Products, produced
by the New Zealand
Ingredients business.
Reference Products
The dairy products used
in the calculation of the
Farmgate Milk Price, which
are currently WMP, SMP,
BMP, butter and AMF.
Glossary
Season
New Zealand: A period
of 12 months to 31 May
in each year.
Australia: A period of
12 months to 30 June
in each year.
SMP
Skim Milk Powder.
WMP
Whole Milk Powder.
WPC
Whey Protein Concentrate.
WPI
Whey Protein Isolate.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time
Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update August 20232023-08-31
“• Fonterra provided an update on FY23 earnings guidance and FY24 forecast Farmgate Milk Price. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • New Zealand and US monthly production decreased. Australia and EU monthly production increased. • EU monthly exports increased. New Zealand, Australia…”
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update July 20232023-07-31
“• Fonterra increases emissions reduction ambitions. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • New Zealand starts new season. Australia and EU monthly production increased, US flat. • New Zealand monthly exports increased. Australia, EU and US exports continue to decrease. • China and…”
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update September 20232023-09-28
“• On 21 September Fonterra announced its FY23 Annual Results and a strong full year dividend. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Australia and EU monthly production increased. New Zealand and US monthly production decreased. • New Zealand and EU monthly exports increased. Austra…”