Channel Infrastructure releases refreshed strategy
NZX RELEASE
19 October 2023
Channel Infrastructure releases refreshed strategy
Channel Infrastructure today released details of its refreshed strategy, as it outlined the opportunities it sees
for the Company’s future.
Channel Infrastructure Chair, James Miller said “Over the past two years Channel Infrastructure has
successfully executed on its plan set by the Board and Management back in 2021. This has enabled us to
recommence dividend payments and deliver a total shareholder return of almost 86%
1
over the past two
years.”
“Channel Infrastructure is now well positioned with strong and stable cash flows, a highly capable team, and
uniquely strategic assets which provide the key fuel supply route to Auckland. With the world-class
conversion of the refinery to an import terminal, and commissioning of additional jet fuel storage at Marsden
Point last quarter, it is the right time to refresh our strategy to ensure we are identifying and pursuing the best
opportunities for the business as we help fuel New Zealand’s future to 2050 and beyond.”
“We will assess the growth opportunities ahead of us against our disciplined investment criteria of delivering
returns above our Weighted Average Cost of Capital, underpinned by customer contracts, and the Board is
committed to maintaining stable dividends, while targeting credit metrics consistent with a shadow BBB+
credit rating.”
2
Channel Infrastructure CEO, Rob Buchanan said “Having delivered a successful import terminal conversion,
our vision is now to become a world-class energy infrastructure company. Channel will invest to support the
long-term resilience of our infrastructure and to be a supply chain partner of choice for our customers. This in
turn will enable us to pursue growth opportunities both within and beyond the Marsden Point gate.”
“Marsden Point is a highly strategic location and, combined with our assets, means we are a unique part of
New Zealand’s fuel import system. There just isn’t another site in New Zealand like it, and it will be key to
executing our future strategy.”
“As we look to deliver resilient infrastructure solutions to meet New Zealand’s changing fuel and energy
needs, Channel will continue to pursue opportunities at Marsden Point which have the added value of
providing increased resilience for New Zealand’s fuel supply chain. We are currently developing a proposal
to support the Government with respect to its strategic diesel storage objectives as well as our customers
with the incoming minimum fuel stockholding obligations from 2025. Over time, the Company has an
ambition to unlock opportunities beyond Marsden Point, where we can partner with new and existing
customers on their fuels infrastructure needs and deploy our world-class capabilities to provide resilient
infrastructure for New Zealand’s changing fuel needs.”
“It is New Zealand’s decarbonisation pathway that presents the most exciting longer-term opportunity for
Channel Infrastructure. While New Zealand’s demand for petrol will likely decline over time, the country will
continue to need a resilient diesel supply chain to fuel its heavy transport and agriculture sectors. Further,
the aviation sector still has a long way to go to transition to lower-carbon fuel solutions. New Zealand’s air
connections play a crucial role to the economy through both our tourism and export industries, and we are
ready to leverage our critical role in the liquid aviation fuel supply chain to ensure we are part of this journey.”
1
TSR calculated for the two years to 29 September 2023
2
Neither Channel Infrastructure, its existing subordinated notes and existing senior retail bonds, nor the senior retail bonds referred to
in this announcement have a credit rating (either public or private).
“We see this as key to Channel’s future success, and this is why, alongside our wider strategy refresh, our
team is taking a deep look into what the decarbonisation pathway for aviation might be in the future. Based
on our work to date, liquid sustainable aviation fuel is emerging as the lowest cost route to lower aviation
emissions for medium to long haul travel, and we continue to work on how we can play our part to help solve
this critical challenge for New Zealand’s future.” Rob Buchanan added.
“We have already achieved significant progress on our ESG scorecard. Sourcing all our electricity
requirements from renewable sources under our new electricity supply contract from January 2024 would
mean that from 2024 we will be largely Scope 1 and 2 emissions-free. We continue to see being a good
neighbour and citizen as a top priority in our strategy, with the key workstreams around reducing
environmental impacts and continued engagement with the community we operate in.” Rob Buchanan said.
Channel Infrastructure has also today reconfirmed its FY23 guidance, announced a new storage contract
(c$9 million
3
of additional revenue across 10 years from 2024 with minimal incremental growth capex) and
confirmed it is considering a retail senior bond to replace the listed subordinated notes.
Accompanying this announcement is a presentation to analysts, which is also now available on the Channel
Infrastructure website and the delayed webcast of the presentations will be available on channelnz.com in
the next few days.
- ENDS -
Authorised by:
Chris Bougen
General Counsel and Company Secretary
Investor Relations contact:
Anna Bonney
investorrelations@channelnz.com
Media contact:
Laura Malcolm
communications@channelnz.com
About Channel Infrastructure
Channel Infrastructure’s vision is to be a world-class infrastructure company, delivering resilient infrastructure
solutions to meet changing fuel and energy needs.
Channel Infrastructure’s assets are a critical part of the Northland and Auckland fuel supply chain, supplying
around 40% of New Zealand’s transport fuel demand and all of the jet fuel to the Auckland International
Airport. Utilising the deep-water harbour and jetty infrastructure at Marsden Point, as well as 280 million
litres of storage tanks, and the 170-kilometre pipeline from Marsden Point to Auckland we receive, store, test
and distribute fuel owned by our customers. Channel Infrastructure’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Independent
Petroleum Laboratory Limited, provides fuel quality testing services at Marsden Point and around New
Zealand.
Channel Infrastructure will seek to support New Zealand’s decarbonisation ambitions, by utilising our
strategically-located assets and our expertise in supply chain infrastructure. The Company remains focused
on its future growth opportunities at the Marsden Point site and beyond, including additional fuel storage to
support fuel security and studies underway with partners on hydrogen and sustainable aviation fuel
opportunities.
For more information on Channel Infrastructure, please visit: www.channelnz.com
3
2023 real terms
---
Infrastructure
to fuel NZ's
future to 2050
and beyond
AnalystDay
19 October 2023
This presentation has been prepared by Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited (“CHI” or
“Channel”) for general information purposes only and does not purport to be complete
or comprehensive.
Forw ard-looking statements: The presentation contains forw ard looking statements
concerning future events and the financial performance and operations of CHI. Forw ard-
looking statements are all statements other than statements of historical fact and any
other statement or estimate regarding the future prospects or performance of CHI (and
its subsidiaries), its business or its assets. By their nature, forw ard-looking statements involve
risk and uncertainty because they are based on assumptions and judgements and relate
to events and depend on circumstances that w ill occur in the future.
There are a number of factors that could cause actual results and developments to differ
materially from those expressed or implied by these forw ard-looking statements, such as
the risks identified in Section 6 of the Explanatory Booklet, dated 5 July 2021, CHI’s Investor
Presentation dated 29 November 2021, and in CHI’s Product Disclosure Statement dated
28 April 2022 (all available on NZX’s website:
https://w w w.nzx.com/companies/CHI/announcements).
You acknow ledge that any forw ard-looking information: (i) is provided for illustrative
purposes only; (ii) reflects various judgements and assumptions w hich may or may not
prove to be correct, reasonable or reliable; (iii) is subject to the emergence of new risk
factors and to unexpected impacts of know n risks; and (iv) may be affected by
subsequent events, including changes in economic and other circumstances. Except as
required by law or regulation (including the NZX Listing Rules), CHI undertakes no
obligation to provide any additional or updated information w hether as a result of new
information, future events or results or otherw ise.
No reliance: CHI does not guarantee future performance, and past performance
information is for illustrative purposes only. To the maximum extent permitted by law , the
directors of CHI, CHI and any of its related bodies corporate and affiliates, and their
respective officers, partners, employees, agents, associates and advisers (“Specified
Persons”) do not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the
accuracy,reliability or
completeness of the information in this presentation, or likelihood of fulfilment of any
forw ard-looking statement or any event or results expressed or implied in any forw ard-
looking statement, and disclaim all responsibility and liability for these forw ard-looking
statements (including, w ithout limitation, liability for negligence) including for any
person’s reliance on them. You agree that you w ill not bring any proceedings against or
hold or purport to hold any Specified Person liable in any respect for this presentation or
the information in this presentation and w aive any rights you may otherw ise have in this
respect.
No advice: This presentation is for information purposes only and does not constitute
legal, financial, tax, financial product advice or investment advice or a
recommendation to acquire CHI’s financial products and has been prepared without
taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of individuals. Before
making an investment decision, you should consider the appropriateness of the
information having regard to your ow n objectives, financial situation and needs and
consult an NZX Firm or solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser if necessary.
Non-GAAP information: Forw ard-looking figures in this presentation are unaudited and
may include non-GAAP financial measures and information. Not all of the financial
information (including any non-GAAP information) w ill have been prepared in
accordance w ith, nor is it intended to comply w ith: (i) the financial or other reporting
requirements of any regulatory body; or (ii) the accounting principles generally
accepted in New Zealand or any other jurisdiction w ith IFRS. Some figures may be
rounded, and so actual calculation of the figures may differ from the figures in this
presentation. Non-GAAP financial information does not have a standardisedmeaning
prescribed by GAAP and therefore may not be comparable to similar financial
information presented by other entities. Non-GAAP financial information in this
presentation is not audited or review ed.
Not an offer: Nothing in this presentation constitutes an invitation or offer of financial
products for subscription, purchase or sale in any jurisdiction.
Date: Each forw ard-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation, 19
October 2023.
Important Information
2
Welcome
and agenda
Rob Buchanan
Chief Executiv e
2.15pm
Our St rat egyRob Buchanan
Fuel Volume Out look
I an Twomey,Envisory
Q&A
Support ing t he goal of lower carbon aviat ion
Pet er van Cingel
Q&A
3.50pm
Break
4.00pmWorld-Class Operat or
Jack St ewart
Q&A
Mult iple opport unit ies t o grow
Pet er van Cingel
A st able infrast ruct ure business
Alexa Prest on
Transit ioning t o t he fut ure
Rob Buchanan
The way forward
Rob Buchanan
4.45pm
Q&A
Agenda
4
Experienced and Proven Management Team
Rob Buchanan
Chief Executiv e
Jack Stewart
GM Operations
Alexa Preston
Chief Financial Officer
Peter v an Cingel
Business Development Manager
Chris Bougen
General Counsel and
Company Secretary
Stev e Lev ell
GMI ndependent Petroleum
Laboratory (I PL)
Caz Jackson
Chief People Officer
Phil Jones
GM Projects
5
Safely shutdown the refinery and commenced import terminal operations to plan
Transitionedbusiness model to stable and predictable earnings through long-term customer
agreements, with a “Take-or-pay” underwrite and PPI escalation, and strong free cash flow conversion
Business and workforce transition largely complete –>97% of employees supported into new
employment or retraining opportunities
Permanently decommissioned the refinery process plant safely to plan and to budget
Signed a long-term renewable electricity supply agreement with Energy Attribute Certificates
attached -Scope 1&2 emissions are on track to be largely eliminated from 2024
[1]
–six years ahead of
target
Contracted and commissioned an additional c.100 ML of private storage, doubling jet fuel storage at
Marsden Point, and delivering $90 million of incremental revenue (prior to PPI escalation, over ten
years)
Reset cost of funding with inaugural senior retail bond issue and bank refinancing
Recommenced dividend payments and delivered a TSR of c.86%
[2]
over the last two years –
compared to NZX50 average of -15%
World-class delivery and execution through conversion
[1] Assumingall electricity supplied to Channel under the new agreement is fromrenewable sources.
[2] TS R calculated for the two years to 29 S eptember 2023
6
What's next for Channel Infrastructure?
Providing infrastructure that will support the energytransition and aviation fuel supply beyond 2050
Ambition to become a world-class operator that will provideinfrastructure resilience for many
decades and enable us to pursue growth at Marsden Point and beyond
A focus on unlockingthe value of our highly strategic, unutilisedreal estate at Marsden Point
Highly disciplined investment criteria, committed to delivering > WACC returns with stable dividends
and a capital structurewith credit metrics consistent with a shadow BBB+ credit rating
Channel will invest tosupport New Zealand’sdecarbonisation efforts
7
Our Strategy
Rob Buchanan
Chief Executiv e
A refresh post-conversion
•Strong and stable
cash flow s
•Strong
capabilities
•Uniquely
strategic
assets
•Key supply route for
jet to Auckland
International Airport
•Meet expected
grow ing jet
demand
•Infrastructure to
support a low er
carbon liquid fuel
solution for aviation
•Support New Zealand’s
reliance onlong-haul air
travel to reach our offshore
export markets
•Support a
stablemedium-term
diesel outlook and
resilient transition of
petrol
The enablers for Channel's strategyWhat Channel will be called on to deliv er
Our infrastructure will help fuel NZ's future to2050 and beyond
9
The key enablers of our future strategy:
1.Strong andstable cash flows
Import terminal business model with long-
term contracts, PPIescalated
2.Strong capabilities
Building on existing capabilities with
ambition to become a world-class
operator
3.Uniquely strategic assets
Marsden Point is a uniquely strategic site in
NZ with a combination of a 35-year
resource consent,
deepwaterharbour,and jetty access,
electricity and gasconnections and
pipeline to NZ’s largest city and
international gateway
4.Key supply route for jet fuel to
Auckland International Airport
Auckland International Airport accounts for
~75% of NZ’s international seat
capacityand 80% of NZ’s jet fuel usage
Infrastructure to help fuel NZ's future to 2050 and beyond–the enablers for Channel
10
Long-term customer contracts
•I nit ial t erm of 10-years, wit h t wo 5-year right s of renewal
•Fixed and minimum fee component s
•Third-part y access t o unut ilisedMarsden Point-to-Auckland Pipeline
(MPAP)capacit y aft er 1 April 2025
•Key cust omers are st rong count erpart ies
[3]
Revenue outlook
•All import t erminal fees subject t o indexat ion which provides prot ect ion
t hrough inflat ionary cycles
•Take-or-pay underwrit es minimum revenue –but fut ure revenue will be
based on t hroughput
•Take-or-pay was set at a higher level for first t hree years, t o enable t he
conversion t o be debt-funded and allowing a recovery in demand post
COVI D
•I n 1H23, revenue was marginally higher t han t he pro-rat a t ake-or-pay
•Volumes expect ed t o cont inue t o increase over t he next few years, in
line wit h Envisory’sfuel out look –t his would mean t ot al revenue would
exceed t he Take-or-pay underwrit e
[1] All revenue is stated in 2021 real-terms
[2] The change of shading represents periods after the first Terminal Services Agreement (TSA)renewal date
[3]Customer credit ratings: Exxon Mobil AA-; BP plc A-, AmpolBaa1
1. Strong and stable cash flows
11
2. Strong capabilities
12
35-year
resource consent
renew ed
in 2021
170km pipeline
-the key supply route
for jet fuel to Auckland
International Airport
c.3 billion litresof fuel
throughput annually, more
than our customers’
10 terminals in the next
3 largest ports
in NZ, combined
Industrial natural gas,
w ater, and electricity
grid connections
Only pipeline capable of
transporting liquid fuels to
Auckland (at around
one-tenth of emissions
compared
to road transport)
Close proximity
to Northport
Capacity to
expand
3. Uniquely strategic assets
Deep w ater harbour and
jetties capable of
receiving refined product
ships amongst the largest
in the w orld
180ha of land
of w hich only 1/3 is
currently in use. Book
value of unutilised land
c.$15million
13
[1] Assuming 40,000 litres/truck
[2] Assuming all electricity used by Channel is from renewable sources
[3] Based on Envisorymid case projection to 2050
4. Key supply route for jet fuel to Auckland International Airport
14
Strong safety
systems and culture
Resilient
infrastructure
Long-term asset
management
Customer focused
People and
capability
development
Future focused
Continuous
Improvement
Adaptive
Repurposing
Marsden Point
Support transitionof
aviationto low er
carbon fuels
Marsden Point
Energy Hub
Brow nfield
opportunities at
Marsden Point
Consolidator of
fuels infrastructure
Supply chain
optimisation for our
customers
Reducing
environmental
impacts
Community
engagement and
iw i relations
Just transition
Transparency and
disclosure
Target credit
metrics consistent
w ith a BBB+ shadow
credit rating
Deliver above
WACC returns
Cost management
Stable dividends
OUR VISION
OUR STRATEGIC PRIORITIES
NZ’s Infrastructure
Part ner of Choice
Grow Through Support ing
t he Energy Transit ion
MoreSust ainable Fut ure
World-class energy infrastructure company
OUR PURPOS E
Deliv ering resilient infrastructure solutions to meet changingfuel and energy needs
World-Class
Operator
High Performance
Culture
Grow from
the Core
Support Energy
Transition
Good Neighbour,
Good Citizen
Disciplined Capital
Management
Our refreshed strategy: helping fuel NZ's future to 2050 and beyond
15
World-class operator
Being a world class operat or is key t o being considered a part ner of choice for current and new
cust omers, and t herefore, t o t he long-t erm sust ainabilit y of our business and unlocking our growth
st rat egy
•
Trust ed as a safe and reliable operat or of crit ical infrast ruct ure
•
Cust omer focused out comes
•
Fit for purpose management syst ems and processes
•
The right infrast ruct ure which is safe, reliable and of assured int egrit y
•
Disciplined invest ment in our people and asset s
High Performance Culture
•
At tracting, support ing and maint aining a diverse and engaged workforce
•
Clear succession planning and t alent management
•
Maint aining an agile and resilient workforce
•
A focus on wellbeing
Strategic Priority –NZ’s Infrastructure Partner of Choice
Strong safety
systems and culture
Resilient
infrastructure
Long-term asset
management
Customer focused
People and
capability
development
Future focused
Continuous
Improvement
Adaptive
NZ’s Infrastructure
Part ner of Choice
World-Class
Operator
High Performance
Culture
16
Grow from the core
•
Unique and highly st rat egic asset s at Marsden Point wit h mult iple brownfield growt h opport unities:
•
70 million lit re Government St rategic Diesel St orage t ender underway
•
Addit ional fuels st orage for exist ing cust omers where required
•
New st orage and dist ribut ion opport unities t hat t ake advantage of exist ing Marsden Point
infrast ruct ure
•
I mport t erminal opt imisat ion opport unities for our customers which create “win-wins”
•
New pipeline cust omers can be int roduced from 2025, non-pipeline cust omers t oday
•Opport unit y t o grow beyond Marsden Point :
•
Liquid fuels st orage infrast ruct ure
•Preference for aviat ion-linked asset s given long-t erm growt h out look and diesel asset s given
st able medium-t erm out look, but will considerpet rol asset s t o aide resiliency in t he t ransit ion
and t o consolidat e st orage and lower supply chain cost s for our cust omers
•
Ot her energy st orage or dist ribut ion infrast ructure t hat leverages our capabilit y (high hazard
asset management and energy st orage)
Support Energy Transition
•Repurpose unut ilised land at Marsden Point and leverage st rat egic asset se.g. Sust ainable Aviat ion
Fuel (SAF) opport unit y
•Ot her pot ent ial energy opport unit ies t o support t he t ransit ion and leverage our sit ee.g. elect ricit y
st orage, solar, wit h alonger-t erm opport unit y for an energy st orage hub at Marsden Point t o support
New Zealand’s energy transition
Strategic Priority –Grow through supporting the energy transition
Repurposing
Marsden Point
Support transition of
aviation to
low ercarbonfuels
Marsden Point
Energy Hub
Brow nfield
opportunities at
Marsden Point
Consolidator of
fuels infrastructure
Supply chain
optimisationfor our
customers
Grow Through Support ing
t he Energy Transit ion
Grow from
the Core
Support Energy
Transition
17
Strategic Priority –a more sustainable future
Disciplined capital management
•
Efficient allocat ion of capit al t o achieve st rat egic object ives, while maint aining st able
dividends and t arget ing credit met rics consist ent wit h t hose of a shadow BBB+ credit
rat ing
[1]
•
Capit al allocat ion framework set t o deliver ret urns t o shareholders:
•
Long-t erm cont ract s deliver st rong cashflow
•
30-40% of normalised free cash flow not current ly paid out in dividends, available
for deleveraging or growt h
•
I nvest in infrast ructure project s t hat deliver:
•
Above WACC ret urns, and
•
Cust omer cont ract s t hat provide revenue cert aint y
•
Focus on maint aining an effect ive cost management cult ure
Good neighbour, good citizen
•
Commit t ed t o maint aininga highst andard of environment al performance and reducing
our impact ont he environment in which Channel operat es
•
Engaging wit h t he local communit y
•
Recognising iwi responsibilit ies as t angatawhenua and kait iaki over poupouwhenua, t he
land upon which we operat e, and part nering in work t o maint ain t he cult ural healt h of t he
sit e and surrounding area
•
I ncorporat ing ESG int o long-t erm business model planning
Reducing
environmental
impacts
Community
engagement and
iw i relations
Just transition
Transparency and
disclosure
Target credit
metrics consistent
w ith a BBB+ shadow
credit rating
Deliver above
WACC returns
Cost management
Stable dividends
MoreSust ainable Fut ure
Good Neighbour,
Good Citizen
Disciplined Capital
Management
[1] Channel Infrastructure does not hav e a credit rating (either public or priv ate)
18
What Channel will be called on to deliv er for New Zealand:
5.Support a stablemedium term diesel demand
outlook and a resilient transition of petrol
Stablediesel demand expected in the medium term
with longer-term “harder to shift” agricultural and
heav y transport sectors.Both petrol and diesel
reliant on low-cost infrastructure that may need
toaccommodate renewables / biofuels
6.Meet expected growing jet demand
Increasingmiddle-class inAsia/India that can afford
to travel
7.Resilient infrastructure to support New
Zealand’s reliance on long-haul air travel to
reach our offshore export markets
NZ is geographically isolated and is reliant on air
travel to connect people and markets
8.Infrastructureto support a lower carbon liquid
fuel solution formedium-to long-haul flights
Our existing infrastructure can accommodate these
solutions, which willreduce transition costs
The future for New Zealand fuels in a decarbonising world
19
Ian Twomey
Env isory
Fuel volume
outlook
www.envisory.co.nz
Channel Infrastructure Fuel Volume Outlook
for
October 2023 Presentation
Presenter: Ian Twomey
Envisory(formerly Hale & Twomey)
21
Channel Infrastructure throughput outlook
•Late 2022, Envisorydeveloped a long-term
fuel outlook for Channel
•This chart was presented in the February
2023 Investor presentation and highlighted:
–Petrol volumes decline most rapidly due to
replacement transport options (primarily EVs)
being available over the outlook period
–Diesel volumes also decline, although at a
slower rate due to some ‘difficult to shift’ demand
–Jet volumes (including liquid sustainable aviation
fuel) continue to increase, due to post COVID
recovery, continued demand for international
travel and difficultly of substitution
•Over time jet fuel demand (be it fossil fuel or
sustainable aviation fuel) is expected to
become a much larger part of Channel’s
business
22
Development of land transport fuel outlook
Demand
•Total country demand modelled (segmented into demand type)
•Vehicle kilometres travelled models transport demand trend
Drivers
•Population, price and behavioural change drive light vehicle demand
•Population, GDP, behavioural change drive various segments of heavy
vehicle demand
Fleet
•EV modelling varies for different transport sectors
•Efficiency of Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) fleet also key driver of
outlook
Output
•Segment demand combined to provide total fuel demand by type
•Alternate liquid fuel demand modelled
•Channel Infrastructure demand developed from distribution shares
23
Petrol volume outlook
•Post-COVID recovery through 2023 before
declining due to improved fleet efficiency
and EV substitution
•Demand well down (8%) on the pre-COVID
peak (2017)
•National demand is slightly down on
forecast although CHI’s throughput is in
line, indicating an improvement in market
share
•EV uptake ahead of assumptions, may fall
back in line if clean car rebate dropped
•High prices may be impacting current
demand
•Improved efficiency of ICE fleet is a major driver of outlook. Driven by the clean car standard which requiresimported
vehicles to meet an improving standard over time. This policyhas broader political support than the clean car rebate.
We remain comfortable with the basis and trend of the petrol outlook.
24
Diesel volume outlook
•Diesel volume outlook relatively stable over this decade although that compares to strong growth through the 2010s
•Replacement of small diesel passenger and commercial vehicles with EVs is a short-term driver before transitioning
heavy transport during the 2030s
•Around 30% of NZ’s diesel demand is used
in non-transport sectors
•Some of this demand will transition to
electricity although there are expected to
remain pockets of “hard to shift” use
•Biofuel use may still be driven by those
sectors that want to decarbonize and CHI is
well placed to handle those volumes
•National demand (end June) is in line with
forecast, although CHI throughput is higher
implying a higher distribution market share
than was assumed in the outlook
We remain comfortable with the basis of the diesel outlook although there is more uncertainty with this outlook, as it is unclear
how some of the demand sectors will transition to other fuels.
25
Influences on transition pace for land transport
Faster TransitionSlower transition
EVs reach cost parity with ICE
1
earlier (~ 2025)EVs take longer to reach cost parity (post 2030)
Efficiency of new ICE fleet improves faster than expected Slower efficiency improvement through less efficient vehicles
coming into the fleet
Better economic conditions increasing rate of fleet turnoverPoorer economic conditions resulting in age of fleet
increasing
Favourable Government policies (particularly on fleet
efficiency targets)
Unfavourable Government policies and lack of support for net
zero by 2050
Proposed bans on new ICE cars are maintained or brought
forward
2
Proposed bans on new ICE cars are deferred
Behavioural changes have more impact than expectedMore difficult to change people’s behaviour with respect to
transport
Breakthroughs in development of alternate fuel heavy
vehicles
More inertia in transition, possibly due to alternate (cheaper)
ways of meeting emission reductions
1.ICE –internal combustion engine
2.Our forecast does not assume a ban on ICE cars in NZ but assumes availability impacted by bans in vehicle manufacturing countries
26
Aviation fuel supply
Jet fuel supply in New Zealand
•Channel Infrastructure receives jet fuel
on ships and supplies Wiri terminal
•This is ~80% of national jet fuel demand
•Auckland Airport is supplied through a
pipeline from Wiri to the airport JUHI
•Regional airports (small demand) in the
northern half of the North Island are
supplied from Wiri using trucking
•Modelled jet demand at Auckland
Airport is critical for national jet fuel
outlook and demand through Channel
Infrastructure facilities
•In 2019, 80% of New Zealand’s jet
demand was international and volumes
are expected to return to those levels
over the next few years
Updated from a graphic in the RAP Inquiry report
27
Jet fuel demand model development
Envisorydeveloped models for calculating jet fuel demand from the outlook for:
‒Number of passengers flying from an airport
‒Aircraft yields (how full aircraft are on average)
‒Type of aircraft used and fuel use for each of those aircraft
‒Destination of aircraft, particularly flight length and balance of fuel use between take off/landing and cruising
‒Continued efficiency improvement caused by newer aircraft entering fleet at expense of older less efficient aircraft
Source: Auckland Airport Annual Results Presentation 2023
The models are tuned to
actual jet demand to ensure
the robustness of the
relationships
The modeling is used both for
short term (next six months)
outlook from the planned
winter and summer schedules
and long term (over many
decades)
28
Auckland Airport jet fuel outlook
•The model development for Auckland Airport has
shown the key drivers of jet fuel demand are:
–Overall passenger number throughput
–Destination of those passengers (segment demand)
–The distance of flights
•Flight distance is a critical driver. Extra long-haul
flights result in higher jet use per passenger.
These flights are being added with improved
aircraft technology, and now make up over 20%
of long-haul flights from Auckland Airport.
•Long-haul and extra long-haul flights generate
55% of jet fuel demand despite only being 23%
of passenger numbers
•Continued development of extra long-haul
destinations will remain a key demand driver
•The outlook was developed together with AA
passenger and aircraft movement forecasts
developed by DKMA
1
1.
DKMA are an Airport Market Research & Advisory provider
29
Jet fuel substitution impact on outlook
Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) will be covered in more detail in the
following presentation.
•Our view is SAF pathways with a liquid fuel directly substituting jet fuel
are more likely
•Liquid SAF uses existing infrastructure and requires little or no
modification of the aviation fleet
•Channel Infrastructure is well placed for this future as it can handle most
liquid fuels as well as being a possible manufacturing site for SAF
Source: Ai rbus
There is impact on throughput late in the outlook from non-liquid SAF alternatives
which includes:
•Direct use of electricity for regional flights from the 2030s, developing more
strongly as the fleet is upgraded during the 2040s (note regional fuel demand is
only around 6% of total jet fuel throughput)
•Use of hydrogen for short-haul aircraft, replacing domestic jet and short-haul
international movements commencing in the 2040s although still with limited
impact by 2050 due to relatively slow turnover of aircraft
Source: Ai rbus
30
Q&A
Supporting the
goal of
lower carbon
aviation
Peter van Cingel
Business Dev elopment Manager
Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)
NZ is geographically isolated and
reliant on long-haul air travel to
connect people and markets:
•Tourism is New Zealand’s largest
export industryand directly
employs 8.4% of New Zealand's
workforce
[1]
•Air freight carries 16% of exports
and 22% of imports
[2]
•Auckland International Airport
accounts for 80% of NZ’s jet
fuel usage
[3]
[1] Pre-COVID, https://www.tourismnewzealand.com/insights/industry-insights/
[2]By dollar v alue. Transport.govt.nz, S tats NZ
[3] From Channel’s throughput data and MBIE Oil data tables
New Zealand is reliant on long-haul air travel
33
Global trends
•Aviation provides connect ivit y for business, t rade, family and t ourism
•St rong correlat ion bet ween household income and propensit y t o
t ravel
•Growt h in middle-classes leads t o growt h in air t ravel
•I ATA
[1]
/ Boeing / Airbus all project ing cont inued growt h in aviat ion
•Boeing & Airbus project ing need for 40,000 –45,000 new aircraft over
next 20 years
[1] IATA = The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is the trade association for the world’s airlines, representingsome 300 airlines or 83% of total air traffic
[2]S ource:Economist intelligence
[3]Each bubble represents a different country, and the bubble size represents the population. The two biggest bubbles represent India and China.
Growing number of middle-income households
Growing middle-class will drive a propensity to travel
•Middle class households project ed t o grow by 350 million in next 10-
years
[2]
•Predominant ly in emerging market s like Asia and I ndia, key
t ravel/inbound t ourism market s for New Zealand
•Aligned wit h key New Zealand t rading part ners and count ries wit h
whom New Zealand has an ambit ion t o deepen t ies t o enhance
export s (t ourism, dairy, et c.)
New Zealand is expected to remain a desirable destination, with an increasingmiddle-class inAsia and India that
can afford to travel through Auckland’s gateway
Demand for jet is expected to grow
34
Summary of ambitions announced by Auckland International Airport’s major airlines:
Global challenge
•Airlines recognise need to decarbonise
operations –av iation represents about 2.5%
of global emissions
[1]
(and expected to grow)
•Aviation is much more challenging to
decarbonise than electricity and road
transport
•Achieving decarbonisation will require global
collaboration, enabling policy landscapes,
and significant adv ances in technology. This
will take time and inv estment to achiev e
•IATA
[2]
has issued roadmap to Net Zero
emissions by 2050
Net Zero emissions by 2050, 10% SAF use by 2030, begin replacing Q300
domest ic fleet wit h more sust ainable aircraft from 2030
Net Zero emissions by 2050, 10% SAF use by 2030, 45% reduct ion in net
emissions from 2019 by 2035
Net Zero emissions by 2050, 10% SAF use by 2030, commit t ed t o 1.1 million
t onnes of SAF use over 10-years, invest ed in Fulcrum bioenergy (SAF
manufact urer)
Support t he I ATA Net Zero emissions by 2050 st rat egy
Net Zero emissions by 2050, 10% SAF use by 2030, 25% reduct ion in net
emissions from 2019 by 2030, average of 1.5% p.a. fuel efficiency
improvement s, US$200 million joint invest ment with Airbus t o accelerat e SAF
indust ry in Aust ralia. Announced access t o up t o 500ML/yr of SAF from 2028 in
FY 23 result s
Net Zero emissions by 2050, 10% SAF use by 2030
Net Zero emissions by 2050, 10% SAF use by 2030
Net Zero emissions by 2050 (without use of offset s), 10% SAF use by 2030, 50%
reduct ion in carbon int ensit y from 2019 by 2035
[1] https://fortune.com/2023/01/26/boeings-chief-sustainability-officer-we-cant-
count-on-hydrogen-powered-commercial-flights-before-2050/
[2] IATA = The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is the trade association
for the world’s airlines representing 300 airlines and 83% of global air traffic
Aviation sector aspirations to Net Zero
35
Limited options outside of SAF
•Bat t ery-elect ric and hydrogen an opt ion for short-
haul / regional sect or -reliant on small planes and
new t echnology:
•Airbus’ ambition to have first commercial
hydrogen-fuelled plane by 2035
•Boeing appears t o be less ent husiast ic on
hydrogen
•Leadt ime on t echnology development and low
fleet replacement rat e mean limit ed impact of
hydrogen by 2050
[1]
•Emissions will need t o be mit igat ed by SAF
Auckland International Airport specific
challenges
•I nt ernational flight s account for nearly 90% of
Auckland jet fuel consumpt ion -bulk of t his from
long haul
[2]
•A small number of aircraft movement s are
responsible for t he bulk of t he jet consumpt ion
•SAF expect ed t o play an import ant part in
init iat ives t o decarbonise long-haul air t ravel
SAF currentlyappears to be the most viable route for lower carbon, long-haul aviation
[1] Christopher Raymond, Chief Sustainability Officer of Boeing, https://fortune.com/2023/01/26/boeings-chief-sustainability-officer-we-cant-count-on-hydrogen-powered-commercial-flights-before-2050/
[2] S ource: Env isory
36
Airlines will need to draw on all options to meet emission
reductiontargets
•Cont inued engine fuel efficiency improvement s, improved
aerodynamics, weight reduct ions, flight rout ing, elect ric t axiing
•But aircraft propulsion remains t he biggest lever
•No cheap / easy opt ion t o replace fossil jet fuel exist s t oday
•Energy-densit y of bat t eries and hydrogen is highly rest rict ive –will
also require new aircraft , new airport infrast ructure
•Cost of invest ment to replace exist ing fleet and infrast ruct ure would
be enormous
•Reliant on a number of fact ors, including collaborat ion wit h indust ry
and policy makers (and not just SAF) if going t o meet t arget s
SAF is technically feasible now
•First SAF import int o NZ received t hrough Marsden Point in 2022 and
delivered via t he pipeline int o Auckland
•SAF is a drop-in fuel; can be used by exist ing infrast ructure (shipping,
fuel st orage, pipelines, airport s, aircraft )
•7 approved manufact uring pat hways t o SAF for 50%-blends in
commercial aircraft t oday
•Boeing commit t ed t o have 100% SAF-compat ible aircraft by 2030
•Global supply of SAF is current ly limit ed
IATA –Strategy towards Net Zero by 2050
[1]
[1]: IATA (International Air Transport Association) strategy to achieve the 2050 Net Zero emissions commitment by its 300 airlines (representing 83% of global air traffic)
SAF utilises existing powertrains and airport infrastructure and therefore is expected to be the lowest cost route to decarbonisation
SAF also expected to be the lowest cost route to lower-carbon aviation
37
Biogenic SAF (bioSAF)
•Uses organic feedst ocks (fat s, oils, woody residues, Municipal Solid Wast e
(MSW))
•Technology is in commercial use t oday
•Key challenge t o scalabilit y is quant um of feedst ock required:
-Used oil and MSW quant it ies t oo low t o scale product ion
-Forest ry wast es are dispersed wit h a high cost t o harvest ,
aggregat e and t ransport
-Feedst ock cult ivation compet es wit h food crops
•Risk of feedst ock cost escalat ion as SAF scales and demand grows
Synthetic SAF (eSAF)
•Also known as Power-to-Liquids (Pt L), it is chemically indifferent t o fossil jet
•Manufact ured by combining renewable hydrogen and CO
2
t o produce
hydrocarbons via Fisher Tropschprocess
•Scalable: reliant on supply of renewable elect ricit y t o produce green
hydrogen
•eSAFmanufact uring st ill in infancy, highly capit al int ensive
Source: Australia’s National Science Agency, CSIRO, Sustainable Aviation Fuel Roadmap, 2023
Two types of SAF –both will be neededand both face challenges
38
Country SAF targets should speed adoption, but supply today is very limited
•I ncreasing number of SAF mandat es and t arget s being int roduced globally
•Airlines and service providers signed up t o Clean Skies for Tomorrow 2030
Ambit ion St atement –10% SAF by 2030
•Qant as and Airbus st udying SAF product ion from bagasse (via Alcohol-to-Jet
process), US$200 million co-funding t o accelerat e domest ic (Australia) SAF
product ion
[1]
•59 offt ake agreement s announced since 2022, equivalent t o 12 billion lit res:
•51 bio-SAF based
•8 Power-to-Liquids
•>130 renewable fuel project s wit h SAF announced by more t han 90 producers in
30 count ries
-0.5% advanced bio-SAF since 2020
-0.8% SAF in 2021, 5% in 2025, 27% in 2030
-1% SAF since 2022, 2% in 2023, 5% in
2030
-2% by 2025, 6% in 2030, 20% in 2035,
-10% S AF in 2030, developing a manufacturing ‘revenue-
certainty’ scheme
-10% in 2030
-2% in 2016, 3% in 2020, 5% in 2025
`
`
Country target –North America
-3bn gallons SAF in 2030 (~12%
blend); 35bn gallons SAF in 2050
(100% blend)
Country targets –Europe
Country targets –Asia
[1] https://www.qantas.com/agencyconnect/au/en/agency-news/agency-news-june-22/qantas-and-airbus-joint-investment-to-kickstart-australian-biofuels-industry.html
39
Global Outlook
•Limit ed impact from hydrogen/bat t ery elect ric by 2050
[1]
•Large reliance on fuel efficiency improvement s and on SAF
•Need >300 SAF plant s by 2030 t o be on t rack for 2050 Net-Zero
i.e. upscale current planned project s by 5-6x
•Liquid fuels are expect ed t o cont inue t o play a large part in
aviat ion fut ure (even in 2050 Net-Zero case)
[1]
Channel uniquely placed
•Channel provides t he key supply rout e for jet fuel int o
Auckland (and t his is expect ed t o be via a near-emission-free
pipeline from 2024)
[2]
•The bulk of Auckland International Airport’s jet fuel demand is
for long-haul t ravel and cannot be subst it uted by bat t eries or
hydrogen in t he foreseeable fut ure
•Long-haul demand is project ed t o cont inue growing st rongly
and underwrites NZ’s tourism and export industries
•Channel’s infrastructure will thereforesupport t he aviat ion fuel
supply chain for decades t o come –and beyond
[1] Mission Possible: Making Net-Zero Av iation Possible, An industry-backed 1.5degC-aligned transition strategy, Prudent scenario
[2]S cope 1 & 2 emissions from Channel's operations (including pipeline) will be largely eliminated from 1 January 2024, assumingall electricity supplied under a new long-term agreement is from
renewable sources.
Emission-reduction levers making net-zero aviation a reality
[1]
GHG emissions reduction (Gt CO
2
e, billion
tonnes)
% contribution to emissions outlook
40
Low-carbon liquid fuels expected to play a significant role in decarbonisation
•Weaning off fossil fuels will cost more, but impact is expect ed t o belimit edinit ially wit h low blend rat es
•Global SAF manufact uring capacit y is st art ing from a very low base, eSAFis early in t he t echnology curve
•Product ion cost s expect ed t o decline as indust ry scales –eSAFexpect ed t o show great est advances given
feedst ock is limit ed only by renewable elect ricit y
•Accelerat ed SAF upt ake ant icipat ed as mandat es int roduced and/or product ion cost s fall
•Energy densit y of hydrogen and bat t eries const rain it s use t o short er flight s and smaller planes
•Aircraft fuel efficiency also cont inuing t o improve, t herefore will require less fuel per km flown
[1]: LCOH –Lev elisedcost of hydrogen, LCOE –Lev elisedcost of electricity
[2]: Mission Possible: Making Net-Zero Av iation Possible, An industry-backed 1.5degC-aligned transition strategy
[3]: US $/MW h and as multiple of historical av erage of fossil jet fuel price
1
Fossil jet fuel US$600 -650 /tonne, US$50 –54 /MW h
SAFs
Hydrogen
Bat t ery-
elect ric
SAFs
Hydrogen
Bat t ery-
elect ric
2-3x
3-4.5x
3-9x
2-4x
1-2x
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
HEFAOther biofuelsPtLGreen H2Battery-electric
US$/MWh
Indicative energy cost in 2020
[2,3]
1
LCOH
[1]
at
about $3.5 -
$6.5/kg today
(incl.
liquefaction)
LCOE
[1]
at
about $50 -
$150/MWh
today
~2x
2-3.5x
1-2.5x
1-2x
0.5-2.5x
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
HEFAOther biofuelsPtLGreen H2Battery-electric
US$/MWh
Indicative energy cost in 2050
[2,3]
1
LCOH
[1]
at
about $1.8 -
$3.5/kg in 2050
(incl.
liquefaction)
LCOE
[1]
at
about $20 -
$120/MWh in
2050
Indicative cost of SAF
41
Q&A
World-class
operator
Jack Stewart
GM, Operations
To provide resilient
infrastructure and unlock
growth opportunities
Today
Achieved today: A w orld-class import terminal conv ersion
20232025
Q1Q2Q3Q4
2022
SHU TDOW N
DECOMMI SSI ONI NG
W ORKFORCE TRANSI TI ON
I MPORT TERMI NAL U PGRADE PROJECTS
Conversion timeline
•Excellent personal and process safet y performance maint ained
•Est ablished minimum viable import t erminal operat ions t o schedule
from 1 April 2022
•No impact t o NZ fuel supply, including t hrough COVI D disrupt ion and
significant weat her event s
•Ret ained key capabilit y t hroughout the t ransition, t urnover at 4%
•Conversion budget cont ingency levels remain appropriat e t o absorb
market disrupt ion
•Commissioned addit ional jet fuel st orage, more t han doubling
Marsden Point jet fuel st orage t hrough t he import t erminal conversion
•Next st ep: world-class fuels infrast ruct ure operat ions
ITS start
COVI D Disrupt ion
W eat her ev ent s
Our focus has been to get the basics right and deliver a seamless transition. Having delivered a world-class import terminal
conversion, our aim is to become a world-class operator
44
2024
Terminal conversion: $200-220m
Demolition (expected 10 years+): c.$50m
Private storage: $45m-50m
Additional terminal capacity: c.$7m
Our ambition: A w orld-class fuels infrastructure partner
World-class enables long-term security of supply
•Long-term aviation fuel demand underpins demand for Channel’s
infrast ruct ure beyond 2050
•World-class capabilit ies are needed t o support long-t erm fuels
infrast ruct ure resilience
World-class positions Channel as partner of choice
•World-class fuels infrast ruct ure capabilit y builds credibilit y for a
broader role
•Unlocks great er growt h opport unit ies at Marsden Point and
beyond as a part ner of choice for cust omers
Incremental investment is needed to become world-class
•I nvestment in key capabilit ies across operat ions, project s and
asset management
•Disciplined invest ment in asset maint enance, renewal and
upgrade
•Target ed invest ment in t ank facilit ies for efficient product qualit y
management
Establishing world-class fuels infrastructure operations through
targeted, incremental investment will support the long-term
resilience of our infrastructure and build credibility as a partner of
choice for a broader role
45
The pathway to World-class
Achieved
Infrastructure &
Performance
People &
Capabilities
Systems &
Processes
The right people equipped with the
mindsets and capabilities
Employee engagement: ‘Your Voice’
survey and improvement program
lift ing engagement
Resourcing: I ncreased in-house
resourcing t o support key capabilit ies
in operat ional excellence, safet y and
asset management
Training syst ems: I mplement t raining
modules for all syst ems and key
compet encies
The right infrastructure which is safe,
reliable and resilient
Long-t erm asset management plans in
place including asset replacement
Asset renewal & upgrade: I nvest in
asset maint enance, replacement and
aut omat ion and upgrade of t anks
support ed by increased levels of
prevent ative maint enance and
condit ion monit oring
Facilit ies and branding: I nvest in
consist ent branding and upgrades t o
facilit ies including new Channel offices
and modernised securit y syst ems
Substantial progress has already been made against world-class. Futurework plan
focuses on seven key workstreams across systems, assets, and capabilities
In progress
46
Fit for purpose management
systems and processes
Cust omer focus t hrough
quart erly review and
sat isfact ion survey
Operat ional discipline: safet y
cult ure program in place t o
embed procedural compliance
and safet y crit ical cont rols
Operat ional efficiency t hrough
cont inuous improvement of ship
t urnaround efficiency and
maint enance, finance and
project management syst ems
St reamlined procedures:
Rat ionalise and opt imise overly
st ringent /complex safet y,
operat ions, and emergency
response procedures
Health,Safety and Environment
Focus remains on getting everyone safely home every day
•Maint ained safe operat ions and reduced TRI F
[3]
t hrough complex conversion const ruct ion
program
•Subst antial invest ment in import t erminal safet y syst ems including fire-fight ing and bunding
upgrades t o t ank facilit ies
•Environment al risk reduced as a result of conversion
To deliver world-classwe need to further adapt safety culture, assets and systems
•High st andard of safet y, securit y and environment al infrast ruct ure
Modernisat ion of securit y syst ems and cont inued maint enance capex invest ment to improve
asset condit ion
•St rong safet y awareness and leadership, cont inuous improvement and t raining
Safet y cult ure programme underway focused on operat ional discipline, st rong leadership
and safet y crit ical cont rols
•Robust safet y and risk management syst ems
St reamlining and simplifying overly st ringent and complex safet y and emergency response
procedures
[1]Tier 1 Process S afety Ev ent (API 754) –A tier 1 Process S afety Ev ent (PS E) is an unplanned or uncontrolled release of any material, including non-toxic and non-flammable, from a process whichresults in
one or more of the following: A LTI and/or fatality; A fire or explosion resulting in greater than or equal to $100,000 of direct cost to the company; A release of material greater than thethreshold quantities
giv en in Table 1 of API 754 in any one-hour period; An officially declared community ev acuation or community shelter-in-place
[2]Tier 2 Process S afety Ev ent (API 754) –A tier 2 Process S afety Ev ent (PS E) is an unplanned or uncontrolled release of any material, including non-toxic and non-flammable, from a process whichresults in
one or more of the following: a recordable injury; a fire or explosion resulting in greater than or equal to $2,500 of directcost to the company; a release of material greater than thethreshold quantities given
in Table 2 of API 754 in any one-hour period
[3]TRIF –Total Recordable Injury Frequency per 200,000 hours (rolling 12-monthly av erage)
[4]NZ Business Leaders Health & S afety Forum Benchmark (injuries per 200,000hrs)
Strong focus on safety systems and culture, born from operating NZ’s most complex and hazardous industrial facility, providea
strong foundation forestablishing a world-class fuels infrastructure operation
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
CONCAWE
Benchmark
2022
Process Safety Incidents
Tier 1 [1]
Tier 2 [2]
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Total Recordable Incidents
TRIF [3]
Benchmark [4]
47
Operations
Channel’s operations continue to grow
•Average cargo size up 10% on 2022 leveraging NZ’s only LR (Long Range) capable
import t erminal capable of over 100ML cargo on a single ship
•St orage capacit y increased 80% over 18-mont hs including more t han doubling
aviat ion fuel st orage
•Capacit y for increased demand -aviat ion fuel t hroughput increased by 43%
[2]
driving
pipeline ut ilisat ion up by 14% wit h headroom of 18%
•Growing demand for NZ’s most capable fuels laboratory with comprehensive
aviat ion and biofuels t est ing capabilit ies –t est ing volumes up c.16% on 2022
Becoming a world-class operator means maximising operational efficiency
•Efficient product handling and t ransfer –target edimprovement s in efficiency
including ship t urnaround t ime, a key cost driver for cust omers
•A cult ure of cont inuous improvement –improving as part of every-day work
•Training and development programs –building key capabilit ies t o support world-class
operat ions
YTD SEPTEMBER 2023
10 %
IMPORT CARGO SIZE
INCREASED
82%
[3]
PIPELINE
UTILISATION
NEW ZEALAND’s LARGEST
FUEL TERMINAL
JET THROUGHPUT
TURNAROUND TIMES
[1]
95 %
893 M L
[1] Laboratory testing turnaround times as per the customer contracts
[2] % increase when compared to pcp(April to September).
[3] For the month ended 30 S eptember 2023
c.280M. L
As operations continue to grow,focus is to ensure Channel has thecapabilities to provide the most efficient and resilient
services forcustomers and New Zealand
48
Asset Management: Investing in long-term infrastructure
Our assets are reliable and resilient
•Maint ained unint errupted supply of fuel t hrough cyclone and st orm event s
•On-t arget EBI TDA performance t hrough disciplined cost management
•First version of long-t erm st rat egic asset management plan:
•15-year view of “stay-in-business” capex remains within $5-12 million long-
t erm guidance
•Upper end of guidance in near-t erm for ex-refinery asset maint enance, as
asset s are bedded int o t he new import t erminal and t o ensure resiliency of
our asset s for t heir expect ed lifet ime
•Forecast capex will mat ure over t ime as plans are refined for key asset s
(i.e. jet t y)
Delivering world-class asset reliability and resilience
•Well maint ained infrast ruct ure –invest in asset maint enance and renewal, along
wit h upgrades t o more efficient ly manage import product qualit y
•A skilled and capable asset maint enance workforce –building capabilit y in asset
management t hrough recruit ment , apprent iceships and t raining
Our infrastructure has proven resilience through the storm and flood events of 2023 and a disciplined approach to asset
management will ensure sustained asset resilience to 2050 and beyond
49
Payoff for inv estment in w orld-class infrastructure and capability
Resilient, world-class fuels infrastructure to 2050 and beyond
•I nvestments in key capabilit ies and asset s will ensure world-class fuel
infrast ruct ure
•Support s current and fut ure fuel demand, including Sust ainable Aviation
Fuels
•Maint ains long-t erm infrast ructure reliabilit y and resilience, while allowing us
t o invest in asset s in a way t hat aligns wit h t heir expect ed lifet ime
•Provides capabilit y for us t o execut e on increment al import t erminal
upgrade project s and new st orage opport unit ies as decommissioning
workforce t ransit ions
World-class is a key enabler for growth beyond Marsden Point
•Positions Channel as a partner of choice for a broader role in NZ’s energy
supply chain
•Coupled wit h project delivery capabilit y, drive t o grow and invest , t o meet
NZ’s changing energy needs
•Different iat es Channel against ot her NZ fuels infrast ruct ure players
Recent ly commissioned jet st orage t anks
Benefits of a world-class approach include resilient infrastructure to
support long-term fuel demand, capability to deliver growth
opportunities and unlocking growth opportunities beyond Marsden
Point
50
World-Class: Investment for a longer-term future
Incremental investment in tanks
•Tank renewal requires increment al funding t o support world-class product
handling and qualit y
•Prepares asset s for increase in sust ainable aviat ion fuels
•No impact t o previously announced import t erminal st ay-in-business capex
guidance
[1]
•Key invest ments planned pre-2030 t o support near-t erm supply chain
performance
Planned investments in capability
•Recruit ing specific skills and knowledge t o enhance operat ional excellence,
asset management and project delivery
•Growing in-house capabilit y for asset maint enance t hrough apprent iceships,
graduat e and t rainee roles
•Reflect s increment al invest ment of c.1% of t ot al opex -expect ed t o reduce
out source services over t ime
Asset renewal and investments in key capabilities support
world-class delivery and infrastructure resilience for a longer-
term future to 2050 and beyond
51
Bund: Before
Bund: After
[1] Guidance for Import Terminal “Stay in Business” capex over the Terminal Services Agreement initial contract
term is $5-$12 million per annum –refer to FY22 Inv estor pack
51
Q&A
Multiple
opportunities
to grow
Peter van Cingel
Business Dev elopment Manager
•Strong and
stable cashflow s
•Strong
capabilities
•Uniquely
Strategic
Assets
•Key supply route for Jet
to Auckland
International Airport
•Meet expected
grow ing Jet
demand
•Infrastructure to support a
low er carbon liquid fuel
solution foraviation
•Support New Zealand’s
reliance onlong-haul air
travel to reach our offshore
export markets
•Support a
stablemedium-term
diesel outlook and
resilient transition of
petrol
The enablers for Channel's strategy
What Channel will be called on to deliv er
Our infrastructure will help fuel NZ's future to2050 and beyond
54
Marsden Point has several brownfield fuels opportunities
StrategicDiesel Reserves
•NZ Government t endering up t o 70-million lit res of diesel st orage capacit y
-Energy (Fuels, Levies, and References) Amendment Billpassed May 2023
-Tender document s released Sept ember 2023
-Product qualit y requirement s necessit at e regular st ock t urn-over
•Channel is preparing t ender response
Minimum Stockholding Obligations (MSO)
•Fuel I ndust ry (I mproving Fuel Resilience) Amendment Bill passed in August
2023, obliges fuel import ers t o hold minimum st ock levels
•Channel is well placed t o support cust omers wit h addit ional st orage
Further Customer Opportunities
•I ncrement al import t erminal upgrade opport unit ies, invest ing t o lower
customers’ supply chain costs or improve their supply chain
•Addit ional liquid st orageopport unit ies onsit e (c.400 million lit res of unut ilised
capacit yavailable)
•New st orage cont ract signed for c.$9 million
[1]
of addit ional revenue
across 10-years from 2024, wit h minimal increment al growt h capex
•Current ly in discussions wit h cust omers on a pot ent ial (as yet
uncont ract ed)import t erminal upgrade project wit h c.$10million of
capex and appropriat e commercial ret urns
•Marsden Point t o Auckland Pipeline open-access from April2025
55
[1] 2023 real terms
Over time will look to unlock opportunities beyond Marsden Point
Leveragecapabilities beyond Marsden Point, where there are
value-accretiveopportunities
•Fuel market s undergoing t ransit ion –Channel open t o owning or
operat ing ot her fuel infrast ruct ure asset s if part ies are looking t o sell
•Key t o posit ioning for t hese opport unit ies is demonst rat ing ourworld-class
capabilit y as a highly credible and reliable supplychain part ner t o
cust omers
•Most int erest ed in aviat ion and diesel asset s given t he medium-t erm
out look
•Should pet rol demand decline inline wit h t he Envisoryout look, it
maypresentopport unit ies t o consolidat e t erminal infrast ruct ure around
NewZealand t o benefit overall cust omer supply chain cost s and
resiliencyt hrough changes in fuel demand
•Unlocking invest ment opport unities will t ake t ime
Disciplined investment criteria
•Cust omer cont ract s t hat providerevenue cert aint y wit h st rong
count erpart ies / cust omer base
•Above WACC ret urns
56
Marsden Point site w ell suited forthe import and production of eSAF
•Fort escue Fut ure I ndustries (FFI) developing t echnologies t o decarbonise hard-to-abat e sect ors
while building a global port folio of renewable energy project s:
•The Marsden Point sit e, wit h it s elect ricit y connect ion, 35-year operat ing consent s,
proximity to import terminal system and pipeline to Auckland (with Air New Zealand’s
int erest underpinned by an MOU) provides a unique opport unit y
•Pre-feasibilit y st udy underway invest igating a 300MW, c.60 million lit res per-year e-SAF
production facility (c.3% of New Zealand’s demand), with the e-SAF t o be dist ribut ed via
t he exist ing Marsden Point-to-Auckland I nternational Airport supply chain
•Projectis support ed by an EECA grant given t he pot ent ial for large-scale demand
response for NZ, enabling elect ricit y t o be released t o t he grid when needed
•Workwit h FFI on developing t he commercial modelis ongoing wit h init ialdiscussions focused on
Channel being an infrast ruct ure provideror operat or, wit h t he Marsden Point sit e and import
t erminal syst em a key enabler of t he project , rat her t han as a lead sponsor
•I t is ant icipat ed t hat global SAF product ion will lag global SAF demand for many years
Channel has an opportunity tosupport New Zealand’s aviation decarbonisation efforts
–viaeither thereceipt and storage of imported SAF through our infrastructure or by
enabling domestic manufacture of SAF(if feasible)
57
Refinery facilities under strategic review , enabling potential redevelopment of the site
Former hydrocracking complex –Subject to Conditional Asset Sale Agreement w ith SeadraEnergy
•I n July 2023, US-based SeadraEnergyI nc was
grant ed an opt ion t o purchase permanent ly
decommissioned part s of t he former refinery for
t ot al considerat ion of US$33.875 million:
[1]
•6-mont hs t o consider t he purchase of
cert ain asset s from t he hydrocracking
complex in considerat ion for a non-
refundable opt ion payment of US$4 million
•Seadramay choose not t o pursue t he
purchase or may renew t he opt ion for an
addit ional 6-mont hs for a furt her non-
refundable payment of US$0.5 million
•Cont inue t o act ively market ot her refinery asset s
and we are in discussions wit h int erest ed part ies
Potential units for sale
We w ill continue to w ork on realising v alue from decommissioned refinery plant
[1] Purchase price includes the option payments but prior to any transaction costs
58
•Marsden Point land is highly st rat egic and difficult t o replicat e
•180ha of land at Marsden Point :
•Only 1/3 product ively occupied
•Unutilised land valued at $15 million in Channel’s accounts
(value of c.$18/m
2
)
•Significant lat ent value in unut ilised land
•Mast er Sit e Plan t o be developed t o assist wit hassessment ofhighest
value and best use of land
•Consent ed solar farm, pot ent ial e-SAF project (FFI ), hydrogen
product ion/t ruck loading, elect ricit y st orage, are all examples of
repurposing opport unit ies for t he sit e:
•Recognising Channel's core st rengt h is as an infrast ructure
provider or operat or, we would look t o work wit h highly
credible part ners who have st rong I P in t heir field on t hese
opport unit ies, rat her t han lead-develop ourselves
•Common link is ut ilisat ion of Marsden Point sit e's key st rat egic
feat ures (elect ricit y connect ion, access t o import t erminal
syst em et c) as t he enabler
Strategic real estate with significant repurposing potential
59
Q&A
A stable
infrastructure
business
Alexa Preston
Chief Financial Officer
Targeting credit metrics
consistent with a
shadow investment
grade rating of BBB+
61
Disciplined capital
management
30-40%
Normalised
FCF av ailable for
delev eraging or
grow th
Strong cashflow and balance sheet
Targeting credit
metrics consistent
w ith a
shadow credit rating
BBB+
Lev erage
[3]
3.6x
EBI TDA
83%
Debt fixed
or hedged
Stable and predictable earnings
Rev enue
[1]
95%
Underpinned by
fixed or
‘Take-or-pay’ fees
90%
Subject to
indexation
[1]
EBI TDA Margin
[1]
68%
All metrics are as at 30 S eptember 2023, unless otherwise stated
[1] For the six-months ended and as at 30 June 2023
[2] Based on a share price of $1.47 per share (as at 13 October 2023) and the mid-point of the latest FY23 guidance of 9.5-11.5 cents per share
[3] Based on net debt as at 30 June 2023
[4] Based on mid-point of FY23 Guidance as set out on slide 66 of this pack
Stable Ordinary
Div idend Yield
c.7%
[2]
Debt expected
to peak in next
6-12 months
Reducing post
conv ersion
I nvestment criteria
Abov e WACC
returns
Contracted
Rev enue
Import terminal delivers stable financial profile
EBI TDA to FCF
Conv ersion
[4]
70%
62
Considering a new retail senior bond to replace subordinated notes
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2024202520262027
$M
Bank debtSubordinated notesRetail bonds
Subordinated
notes -
maturity date
•Debt facilit ies of $380 million wit h significant liquidit y headroom
available (c.$62 million as at 30 Sept ember 2023)
•Expect ed debt will peak at around $15 t o $35 million above t he 30
Sept ember 2023 level in t he next 6 -12 mont hs (assuming no furt her
growt h project s)
•C.83% of 30 Sept ember 2023 net debt fixed, wit h significant hedge
prot ect ion in t he following years
•Considering a new ret ail senior bond t o replace t he subordinat ed
not es
[2]
Debt profile as at 30 September 2023
Interest rate profile as at 30 September 2023
[1] Nominal interest rate, excluding the amortisationof up-front bank fees and bond issuance costs. Bank nominal interest rate represents a combination of bank margin, line fees, and swap rates (note:
drawn facilities in excess of the hedged amount are subject to floating interest rates, i.e. Bank Bill Rate plus the applicable line fee and margin)
[2]The first election date to redeem the subordinated notes is 1 March 2024
63
[1] Normalisedfree cash flow is calculated as net cash flow from operations less maintenance capex (excluding conv ersioncosts and growth capex).The div idend policy is subject tothe Board’s
due consideration of the Company’s medium term asset investment programme; a sustainable financial structure for Channel Infrastructure, recognisingthe targeted inv estment grade rating; and
the risks from short and medium term economic and market conditions and estimated financial performance
Capital allocation framework set to deliver returns to shareholders:
64
[1] Normalised EBITDA and free cash flows exclude one-off conv ersion costs and growth capex
[2] Importterminal capital expenditure range ov er the initial 10-year contract term, excluding growth and one-off conv ersion capital expenditure
[3] Based on current financing arrangements, hedged positions and current 90-day bank bill rate
[4]TheBoard has reconfirmed a div idend policy pay-out of 60-70% of free cash flow (being adjusted net cash generated from operations less maintenance capex. The div idend policy is subject to
the Board’s due consideration of the Company’s medium-term asset inv estment programme; a sustainable financial structure for Channel Infrastructure, recognising the targeted shadow
inv estment grade rating; and the risks from short and medium term economic and market conditions and estimated financial performance
[5] Based on a share price of $1.47 per share (as at 13 October 2023) and the mid-point of: the div idend payout range and guidance for normalisedfree cash flow
16
FY23 Financial Metrics Guidance
($ million)
NormalisedEBITDA
[1]
Indicative NormalisedFCF
[1]
Less: capital expenditure
[2]
Less: financing costs
[3]
8488
911
16
5962
Div idend
60-70%
[4]
c.70%
EBITDA to FCF Conversion
Strong free cashflow conversion
Growth and
Delev eraging
30-40%
Div idend Yield
[5]
c.7.0%
FCF Yield
[5]
c.11%
65
FY 24 guidance
[3]
t o be released wit h FY 23 result s. Key drivers include:
•The PPI escalat or applying t o 2024 import t erminal services and privat e st orage
revenuepublished mid-November
•Privat e st orage revenue at full run rat e of c.$9 million p.a. (2021 real)
•New st orage cont ract announced t oday: c.$9 million of addit ional revenue
across 10 years from 2024 (with minimal increment al growt h capex)
•Over $2 million saving in FY 24 elect ricit y supply cost s vs FY 23 due t o new supply
cont ract from 1 January 2024
•
I nflat ionary cost pressure across variable opex
•
Cont inued focus on maint aining effect ive cost management cult ure and
creat ing efficiencies across t he business
FY23 guidance reconfirmed.Outlook for FY24
[1]Guidance is for import terminal operations (classified as continuing operations) and excludes discontinued
operations (i.e. one-off conv ersion cost opex and capex of $200-220 million), priv ate storage capex ($45-50 million)
and additional terminal storage ($7 million), with no change in guidance for these projects. Guidance also
excludes any opex and capex associated with new growth opportunities
[2]The dividend policy is subject to the Board’s due consideration of the Channel Infrastructure’s medium-term asset
inv estmentprogramme; a sustainable financial structure for Channel Infrastructure, recognisingthe targeted
inv estment grade rating; and the risks from short and medium-term economic and market conditions and
estimated financial performance
[3]From FY24, guidance will be prov ided on EBITDA and normalisedfree cash flow
Indicative FY23 Financial metrics
[1]
($m)
Terminal and ot her revenue128-130No change
Operat ing cost s42-44No change
EBI TDA84-88No change
Depreciat ion
34-35
No change
Financing cost s
c.16
No change
I ncome t ax payable
Nil
No change
St ay-in-business capexc.9-11No change
I ndicat ive normalisedfree
cash flow
59-62No change
I ndicat ivedividend range
[2]
9.5 -11.5cpsNo change
66
Transitioning
to the future
Our approach
Rob Buchanan
Chief Executiv e
Community meetings
attended by senior
leaders in 1H2023
>97%
$30M
Paid to employees
as redundancy and
entitlement benefits
37%
Of the corporate and
senior leadership team
identify as female
78%
Reduction in w ater
consumption
[1]
30%
Reduction in the
extent of legacy
groundw ater
contamination
[2]
Scope 1& 2 emissions
reduction
>99%
0.8
TRCF
[3]
and
0.77 LTI F
[4]
10+ years
Collaboration with iwi
and pipi research
of employees in new
roles or retraining within
6 months
4
Environmental, Health and SafetyDiversity, equity and inclusion
Culture and
partnerships
68
Achieved significant progress on our ESG scorecard
[1] For the Year End 31 December 2022
[2] Measured ov erthe last six years
[3] TRCF –Total recordable case frequency per 200,000 hours (rolling 12-monthly av erage)
[4] LTIF –Lost time injury frequency per 200,000 hours (rolling 12-monthly av erage)
69
A broad range of stakeholders were consulted with in 1H23 to identify material issues
Stakeholder'smaterial issues have informed the strategy refresh
69
Coastal Hazard Management Plan under development
•Assessment includes 4-degree warming scenario (year 2130)
[1]
•Modelling indicat es lit t le impact likely before 2080
[1]
•Pract ical opt ions ident ified for mit igat ion of long-t erm coast al erosion
and inundat ion risks
[1]
•Mit igat ion plans t o be developed and implement ed t hrough asset
management plans
Global risk benchmarking reflects low to moderate hazard for
natural catastrophe risks
[2]
•Loss modelling reflect s mean asset loss of c. $20 millionfor 2,000-year
ret urn period for eart hquake, t sunami and cyclone
Continued investment in stormwater collection and treatment
systems, provided strong resilience to recent weather events
•Received the same amount of rainfall as Auckland during Summer ‘23,
and no major impact s t o sit e, proving previous invest ments and sit e
prot ocols have delivered resilient infrast ruct ure
Disclaimer
Users are reminded that Northland Regional Council data is prov ided in good faith and is v alid at the date of publication. However, data may change as additional information becomes av ailable. For this
reason, information prov ided here is intended for short-term use only. Users are adv ised to check figures are still v alid for any future projects and should carefully consider the accuracy/quality of information
prov ided before using it for decisions that concern personal or public safety. Similar caution should be applied for the conductof business that inv olves monetary or operational consequences. The
Northland Regional Council, its employees and external suppliers of data, while prov iding this information in good faith, acceptno responsibility for any loss, damage, injury in v alue to any person, serv ice or
otherwise resulting from its use. All data prov ided is in NZ S tandard Time. During daylight sav ing, data is one hour behind NZ Daylight Time.
[1]
Marsden Point Coastal Climate Risk Assessment Report–woodbecaAugust 2023
[2]
Natural catastrophe loss modelling and climate change analysis, and Channel Infrastructure Marsden Point Terminal New ZealandUnderwriting Report -Marsh
70
Site proved resilient through extreme weather events earlier this year
The way
forward
Rob Buchanan
Chief Executiv e
Strong safety
systems and culture
Resilient
infrastructure
Long-term asset
management
Customer focused
People and
capability
development
Future focused
Continuous
Improvement
Adaptive
Repurposing
Marsden Point
Support transitionof
aviationto low er
carbon fuels
Marsden Point
Energy Hub
Brow nfield
opportunities at
Marsden Point
Consolidator of
fuels infrastructure
Supply chain
optimisation for our
customers
Reducing
environmental
impacts
Community
engagement and
iw i relations
Just transition
Transparency and
disclosure
Target credit
metrics consistent
w ith a BBB+ shadow
credit rating
Deliver above
WACC returns
Cost management
Stable dividends
OUR VISION
OUR STRATEGIC PRIORITIES
NZ’s Infrastructure
Part ner of Choice
Grow Through Support ing
t he Energy Transit ion
MoreSust ainable Fut ure
World class energy infrastructure company
OUR PURPOS E
Deliv ering resilient infrastructure solutions to meet changingfuel and energy needs
World Class
Operator
High Performance
Culture
Grow from
the Core
Support Energy
Transition
Good Neighbour,
Good Citizen
Disciplined Capital
Management
Our refreshed strategy: helping fuel NZ's future to 2050 and beyond
72
[1] Based on a Share Price of 1.47 per share (as at 13 October 2023) per share and mid point of div idend payout range and FY23 normalisedfree cash flow guidance
Refer to HY23 NZX announcement, inv estor presentation, and Annual Report for full details, av ailable at www.channelnz.com
Net Dividend
Yield
[1]
c.7%
FCF Yield
[1]
c.11%
World-class operator to unlock option value of unique,
strategic assets to maximisetotal shareholder return
73
What's next for Channel Infrastructure?
Providing infrastructure that will support the energytransition and aviation fuel supply beyond 2050
Ambition to become a world-class operator that will provideinfrastructure resilience for many
decades and enable us to pursue growth at Marsden Point and beyond
A focus on unlockingthe value of our highly strategic, unutilised real estate at Marsden Point
Highly disciplined investment criteria, committed to delivering > WACC returns with stable dividends
and a capital structurewith credit metrics consistent with a shadow BBB+ credit rating
Channel will invest tosupport New Zealand’sdecarbonisation efforts
74
•Strong and
stable cashflow s
•Strong
capabilities
•Uniquely
Strategic
Assets
•Key supply route for Jet
to Auckland
International Airport
•Meet expected
grow ing Jet
demand
•Infrastructure to
support a low er
carbon liquid fuel
solution for aviation
•Support New Zealand’s
reliance onlong-haul air
travel to reach our offshore
export markets
•Support a
stablemedium
term diesel outlook
and resilient
transition of petrol
The enablers for Channel's strategyWhat Channel will be called on to deliv er
Our infrastructure will help fuel NZ's future to2050 and beyond
75
Q&A
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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