UBS Geothermal Commissioning Update
1
Geothermal Commissioning Update
UBS Australasia Conference
November 2023
22
Disclaimer and important information
While all reasonable care has been taken in compiling this presentation,
neither Contact nor any of its directors, employees, shareholders nor any
other person gives any representation as to the accuracy or completeness
of this information or accepts any liability for any errors or omissions.
This presentation may contain certain forward-looking statements with
respect of a variety of matters. All such forward-looking statements involve
known and unknown risks, significant uncertainties, assumptions,
contingencies, and other factors, many of which are outside the control of
Contact, which may cause the actual results or performance of Contact to
be materially different from any future results or performance expressed or
implied by such forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking
statements speak only as of the date of this presentation. Except as
required by law or regulation (including the NZX Listing Rules and the ASX
Listing Rules), Contact undertakes no obligation to update these forward-
looking statements for events or circumstances that occur subsequent to
the date of this presentation or to update or keep current any of the
information contained herein. Any estimates or projections as to events that
may occur in the future (including projections of revenue, expense, net
income and performance) are based upon the best judgement of Contact
from the information available as of the date of this presentation.
EBITDAF, free cash flow and operating free cash flow are financial measures that are “non-GAAP (generally
accepted accounting practice) financial information” under Guidance Note 2017: ‘Disclosing non-GAAP
financial information’ published by the New Zealand Financial Markets Authority, “non-IFRS financial
information” under ASIC Regulatory Guide 230: ‘Disclosing non-IFRS financial information’ and “non-GAAP
financial measures” within the meaning of Regulation G under the U.S. Exchange Act of 1934.
Such financial information and financial measures (including EBITDAF, free cash flow and operating free cash
flow) do not have standardised meanings prescribed under New Zealand equivalents to International Financial
Reporting Standards (“NZ IFRS”), Australian Accounting Standards (“AAS”) or International Financial
Reporting Standards (“IFRS”) and therefore, may not be comparable to similarly titled measures presented by
other entities, and should not be construed as an alternative to other financial measures determined in
accordance with NZ IFRS, AAS or IFRS accounting practice) measures. Information regarding the usefulness,
calculation and reconciliation of these measures is provided in the supporting material.
This presentation does not constitute financial or investment advice. This presentation does not constitute an
offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, Contact securities and may not be relied on in connection with
any purchase of a Contact security.
Numbers in the presentation have not all been rounded and might not appear to add.
All references to $ are New Zealand dollar unless stated otherwise.
Alltrademarks, service marks andcompany namesare thepropertyoftheir respective owners. All company,
product and service names used in this presentation are for identification purposes only. Use of these names,
trademarks and brands does not imply endorsement or that they are or will be customers of Contact and
reflects public announcements of intention only.
3
Geothermal commissioning update
»Tauhara is a world-class geothermal development to build a multi-generational 174MW renewable baseload powerplant.
»Hot commissioning of the steam-field commenced in July 2023.
»Commissioning issues have emerged including underperforming steam-field valves and liquid handling systems and a steam
hammer event.
»Some elements of the steam separation plant will require further design and modification.
»Tauhara is now expected online in Q3 2024 at least at the initial design capacity of around 152MW.
»The first planned outage (expected within a year from online date) will be an opportunity to undertake any further modification and
debottlenecking that may be required to reach and maintain the full planned capacity of 174MW.
»A number of strategies are being applied to mitigate the deferral of this expected geothermal generation, in line with Contact’s
commodity risk framework.
»There is no change to Contact’s FY24 normalised and expected EBITDAF guidance of $600m.
»Plant modifications will result in a cost increase of up to $40m, with the project still achieving an LRMC of around $75 per MWh.
1
»This pack contains further context on the stages of commissioning of geothermal projects and the related risks and mitigations.
Includes revisions to expected timing and capacity for Tauhara online
1
Assumptions include a capital cost of $920m, broker consensus WACC of 7.5%; inflation of 2%; corporate tax rate of 28%; 35-year plant life; $15/MWh operating costs; ~$8m p.a. capex (with major mid-life capex smoothed)
as at FID in February 2021.
4
Geothermal plants under construction
Project progress
Te Huka 3
Contact currently has $1.2bn of geothermal projects under construction
1
Tauhara
October ‘23
98%
construction
October ‘23
66%
construction
Planned
Forecast
Actual
Commercial operation
%
%
1
Or $1.3bn of committed geothermal investment when including the $114m of pre-FID development costs for GeoFuture.
2
Includes sunk costs. Excludes capitalised interest.
Spend to date (to 31 Oct)
2
Total expected project cost
2
Project update
$920m
$775m
Spend to date (to 31 Oct)
2
Total expected project cost
2
Project update
$300m
$191m
All major equipment from Israel has either
arrived or is in transit, mitigating risks of
supply disruption from conflict in the Middle
East. Generator on track to be shipped
from Europe by end 2023.
Commissioning stalled for remediation of
steam-field issues. Plant expected online in
Q3 2024 at least at the initial design capacity
of 152MW,withfull planned capacity of
174MWexpected at thefirstplannedoutage.
Planned
Forecast
Actual
Commercial operation
5
Recap on key project delivery roles
Geothermal developments are complex – Contact directly manages those project elements where it has
deep expertise and works through expert partners as appropriate to manage risks
EngineeringProcurementConstructionManagement
Wells &
Resource
Tauhara
TeHuka3
Steam-field
Tauhara
TeHuka3
Powerstation
Tauhara
TeHuka3
Transmission
Tauhara
TeHuka3
Various domestic
specialist contractors
& others
Various domestic
specialist contractors
& others
6
Geothermal commissioning
While commissioning challenges are common, especially with steam turbines, there are a range of
mitigations available
Challenges facedMitigation
Cold commissioning – Lube oil flushingVarious mitigations including:
•Remediation by owner
•Remediation by OEM / EPC
•Delay liquidated damages (LDs)
•Insurance
Hot well pump
Condenser performance
Pedestal deflections in early operation
Challenge (to date)Mitigation (likely)
Steam field valve performanceValve remediation and replacement
Steam hammer eventPipework modification & recompletion
Bottlenecks in liquid handling systemsDebottlenecking
Te Mihi (2014)
»Commissioning issues
identified and mitigated
»Commercial online date (COD)
deferred ~7 months
»Full output achieved at first
outage (+13 months from
original COD)
Tauhara (today)
»Commissioning underway
»Expected online in Q3
2024 at least at the initial
design capacity of 152MW
»Full target output expected
at first planned outage
7
1 - 2 months
Typical commissioning stages and sequencing
The commissioning process is designed to test all functions of the geothermal well operations, steam field
and power station under a range of conditions, including extreme emergency simulations
StageWell testing
Steam-field
(cold)
High Voltage
livening
Power Station
(cold)
Steam-field
(hot)
Power Station
(hot)
Reliability run
Key elements
tested
Completed via
flowing output
test to
understand flow
and energy.
Check piping
systems, control
system
functions; check
valve and safety
system
operation
(without steam).
System
configuration,
protection
schemes, key
equipment
performance.
Back-feed
Power Station.
Control system
functions; valve
and safety
system
operation, lube
oil and control oil
system tests
(without steam).
Operating tests
of plant; ensure
integrity of plant
and safety
systems at
maximum design
conditions.
Steam blow of
piping system,
operating tests
of plant; integrity
of safety system;
plant
performance
tests.
Reliability test of
all combined
systems and
plant output.
Duration2 - 3 months2 - 3 months1 month1 month1 month1 - 2 months1 month
Wells
Steam-field
High Voltage
Power Station
Reliability run
Testing
Cold
HV livening
Hot
Final Tests
Sequencing of commissioning stages:
Tauhara key: Complete Future activity Sequencing dependency
Back-
feed
Hot
Cold
Note: Arrows are not to scale
8
Early plant life: Typical features
The early years after on-line date are characterised by a number of
common features across geothermal plants
Ramp up to
target output
Initial major
outages
Role of
insurance
Up front risk
mitigation
»Plant can often be commissioned below long-
term output target.
»Debottlenecking typically undertaken over first
1 – 2 years.
»Scale to target output (first major outage).
»Necessary after 12 months of operation, and
then plan to extend to 2 and then 4 year cycles
(i.e. year 1, 3, 7, 11 etc).
»Regulatory requirement of pressurised steam
systems such as a geothermal plant.
»Timeframes can vary dependent on scope of
activities.
»Coverage held for contract works and
delayed start up rolls over into operational
programme after online date.
»PPAs linked to plant output and the plant
being in service.
9
Contact expects to deliver near term uplift in
renewable generation and EBITDAF
Further substitution of baseload gas generation for low cost geothermal to drive EBITDAF margin uplift
6.8
7.5
7.1
6.8
7.2
7.1
7.27.27.27.2
1.91.9
0.6
1.8
FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24
0.3
FY25FY26FY27
7.2
9.3
9.6
10.9
Under development (by EOY)
1
Under construction (by EOY)
2
Total existing
Renewable generation –Annual output (TWh)
(Exit run-rate illustration)
10.3TWh p.a.
FY27 target
(online EOY)
Mean renewables 7.2TWh p.a.
(varied by hydrology conditions)
Assumes
mean hydro
conditions
FY24-FY27
Additional annual
output shown on
EOY-online (exit
run-rate) basis
1
Includes two grid scale solar projects (0.3TWh p.a. each) and the Southland wind project (0.9-1.2TWh p.a.). Each is progressing through consenting and development processes and remains subject to final investment decision.
Also includes the consented GeoFuture project, for the replacement of Wairakei A&B geothermal station (net 0.4TWh p.a. uplift in output based on ~170MW replacement plant), subject to final investment decision.
2
Includes geothermal plants under construction at Tauhara (1.4TWh p.a.) and Te Huka (0.4TWh p.a.) and uplift from the planned refurbishment of hydro turbines at Roxburgh (0.05 TWh p.a.).
3
Refer to slide 43 of FY23 results presentation for reconciliation of EBITDAF.
4
Underlying EBITDAF excludes non-cash accounting item: onerous contract provision expense of $113m.
480
520
550
600
553
546
FY21FY22
573
4
FY23FY24
Actual result delivered
Guidance (normalised and expected at beginning of the year)
EBITDAF Guidance vs Actual ($m)
3
Strong track record of delivering
performance above guidance
Hydrology swing of +/-$50m EBITDAF remains
FY25
FY27+
Mean guidance to be updated
for:
•Tauhara and TeHuka3
online FY25
•Wind/solar FY26/27+
subject to consenting and
FID
1.7
to
1.9
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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