Global Dairy Update February 2024
• Cheese tops the menu for Lunar New Year.
1
Global Dairy
UPDATE
• Australia monthly production increased.
New Zealand, EU and US monthly
production decreased.
• Australia and New Zealand monthly
exports increased. EU and US monthly
exports decreased.
• Latin America, Asia and Middle East & Africa
monthly imports increased. China monthly
imports decreased.
• Fonterra New Zealand milk collections in
January were 158.4 million kgMS, 1.8% behind
January last season.
• Fonterra Australia milk collections in January
were 9.7 million kgMS, 2.1% ahead of January
last season.
• Duck River clinches coveted Champion Butter title.
Key Dates
21 March 2024
FY24 Interim Results Announcement
May 2024
FY24 Q3 Business Update
FEBRUARY 2024
%
%%
%
%
%%
%
Change for January 2024
compared to January 2023
Change for January 2024
compared to January 2023
Change for December 2023
compared to December 2022
Change for December 2023
compared to December 2022
Change for the 12 months
to January 2024
Change for the 12 months
to January 2024
Change for the 12 months
to December 2023
Change for the 12 months
to December 2023
1.12.21.5
0.30.00.3
0.3
0.6
2
OUR MARKETS
Global Production
Australia monthly
production increased.
New Zealand, EU
and US monthly
production decreased
New Zealand milk
production was down
1.5% on a litres basis (down
0.6% on a milk solids basis)
in January compared to the
same period the year prior.
The decrease was due to hot
and dry El Niño conditions
in the North Island. This was
partially offset by favourable
weather conditions in the
South Island.
New Zealand milk
production for the
12 months to January was
up 0.6% on the previous
comparable period.
Fonterra New Zealand
collections are reported
for January, see page 5
for details.
Australia milk
production increased 2.2%
in December compared
to the same period the
year prior.
The production increase was
due to favourable weather
conditions, with average
rainfall events.
Australia milk production for
the 12 months to December
was up 0.3% on the previous
comparable period.
Fonterra collections in
Australia are reported
for January, see page 5
for details.
EU milk production¹
decreased 0.3% in December
compared to the same
period the year prior.
The production decrease
was driven by Ireland, as
milk prices fell below cost
of production coupled with
adverse weather conditions
leading to earlier housing
of cows.
EU milk production for the
12 months to December
was flat.
This is mainly due to
decreased milk production in
France, offset by increases in
Germany and Poland.
US milk production
decreased 1.1% in January
compared to the same
period the year prior.
Smaller herd numbers and
continued lower milk yield
has resulted in a seventh
month of consecutive
decline in production
year‑on‑year.
Milk production for the
12 months to January was
down 0.3% on the previous
comparable period.
This is mainly due to smaller
herd numbers and continued
lower milk yield.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year
changes in production –
1 Excludes UK.
To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year
changes in exports –
3
OUR MARKETS
Global Exports
Australia and New Zealand
monthly exports increased.
EU and US monthly
exports decreased
Total New Zealand dairy
exports increased 12.3%,
or 39,118 MT, in January
compared to the same
period the year prior.
Higher exported volumes
of SMP to Southeast Asia
and China pushed SMP
exports to highest level since
December 2014.
Exports for the 12 months
to January were up 5.3%, or
179,241 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to
increases in SMP, WMP, and
AMF volumes to China.
EU dairy exports
decreased 6.9%, or
34,843 MT, in December
compared to the same
period the year prior.
Lower export volumes of
SMP and WMP to China
were partially offset by
higher export volumes of
SMP to North Africa, and
WMP to Middle East.
Exports for the 12 months
to December were up 0.1%,
or 6,385 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to
higher export volumes of
SMP and cheese, partially
offset by lower export
volumes of infant formula.
US dairy exports
decreased 1.1%, or 2,558 MT,
in December compared
to the same period the
year prior.
Butter export volumes fell,
particularly to Canada,
due to increased pricing
impacting demand.
Exports for the 12 months
to December were down
6.7%, or 193,403 MT, on the
previous comparable period.
This was mainly due to lower
export volumes of butter
and whey, partially offset by
higher volumes of lactose.
Australia dairy exports
increased 8.9%, or 5,219 MT,
in December compared
to the same period the
year prior.
The increase in exports
was mainly due to higher
export volumes of fluid
milk products and whey to
China, partially offset by
lower export volumes of
sweetened milk powder.
Exports for the 12 months
to December were down
22.5%, or 185,982 MT, on the
previous comparable period.
This was mainly due to
the disconnect between
Australia's domestic milk
price and global commodity
price, making exports
less competitive.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
%%
%
%
%%
Change for January 2024
compared to January 2023
Change for December 2023
compared to December 2022
Change for December 2023
compared to December 2022
Change for December 2023
compared to December 2022
Change for the 12 months
to December 2023
Change for the 12 months
to December 2023
Change for the 12 months
to January 2024
Change for the 12 months
to December 2023
1.1
22.5
12.3
0.1
6.7
8.9
6.9
5.3
%%
To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year
changes in imports –
4
OUR MARKETS
Global Imports
Latin America, Asia
and Middle East &
Africa monthly imports
increased. China monthly
imports decreased
Latin America dairy
import volumes¹ increased
7.3%, or 13,540 MT, in
December compared to the
same period the year prior.
The increase was mainly
due to higher volumes of
WMP and cheese by Brazil
from Argentina.
Imports for the 12 months to
December were up 8.3%, or
186,198 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to higher
volumes of WMP by Brazil
from Argentina, and cheese by
Mexico from the US.
Asia (excluding China)
dairy import volumes¹
increased 21.4%, or
79,786 MT, in December
compared to the same
period the year prior.
The increase was mainly due
to higher volumes of WMP
by Bangladesh and Thailand
from New Zealand, and fluid
milk by the Philippines and
Vietnam from the EU.
Imports for the 12 months
to December were down
0.4%, or 19,900 MT, on the
previous comparable period.
This was mainly due to
lower volumes of SMP by
Philippines, and partially
offset by higher volumes of
lactose by India and Vietnam.
Middle East and Africa
dairy import volumes¹
increased 2.7%, or 13,300 MT,
in December compared
to the same period the
year prior.
The increase was mainly due
to higher volumes of SMP by
Egypt from EU, and butter by
Saudi Arabia from both the
EU and New Zealand.
Imports for the 12 months to
December were up 3.7%, or
201,032 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to
higher volumes of SMP
by Algeria from the EU
and Saudi Arabia from
New Zealand.
China dairy import
volumes decreased by
9.4%, or 24,863 MT, in
December compared to the
same period the year prior.
The decrease was driven
by lower import volumes
of WMP and SMP. This was
partially offset by an increase
in demand for lactose
and cheese.
Imports for the 12 months
to December were down
9.7%, or 331,586 MT, on the
previous comparable period.
This was due to a decline in
import demand of WMP and
fluid milk products reflecting
excess domestic supply.
LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA
1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.
%
%
%%
%
Change for December 2023
compared to December 2022
Change for December 2023
compared to December 2022
Change for December 2023
compared to December 2022
Change for December 2023
compared to December 2022
Change for the 12 months
to December 2023
Change for the 12 months
to December 2023
Change for the 12 months
to December 2023
9.421.47.3
0.43.7
%
Change for the 12 months
to December 2023
9.7
2.7
8.3
%
%
To view a table that shows
detailed milk collections in New
Zealand and Australia compared
to the previous season –
%
%%%
Season-to-date
1 July to 31 January
Season-to-date
1 June to 31 January
Season-to-date
1 June to 31 January
Season-to-date
1 June to 31 January
Change for January 2024
compared to January 2023
Change for January 2024
compared to January 2023
Change for January 2024
compared to January 2023
Change for January 2024
compared to January 2023
2.12.85.41.8
0.53.22.80.4
VOLUME M LITRESDAY
JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
5
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Milk Collections
NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA
New Zealand Milk Collections
Fonterra's Australia
collections
in January were
9.7 million kgMS, 2.1% ahead of
January last season.
Collections increased
in January due to mild
temperatures, reducing the
impact of heat stress on cows.
Season‑to‑date collections
were 66.5 million kgMS, 0.5%
ahead of last season.
Collections increased mainly
due to improvement of
weather patterns.
North Island milk
collections in January was
85.7 million kgMS, 5.4% behind
January last season.
The decrease was due to hot
and dry conditions resulting in
lower milk flows.
Season‑to‑date collections
were 594.5 million kgMS, 2.8%
behind last season.
South Island milk
collections in January was
72.7 million kgMS, 2.8% ahead
of January last season.
The increase was due to
continued favourable weather
conditions which saw all
regions outperform January
last season.
Season‑to‑date collections
were 417.6 million kgMS, 3.2%
ahead of last season.
Fonterra's New Zealand
collections in January were
158.4 million kgMS, 1.8% behind
January last season.
The decrease was due to
lower collections in the
North Island as unfavourable
weather conditions impacted
production. This was partially
offset by favourable weather
conditions in the South Island.
Season‑to‑date collections
were 1,012.1 million kgMS, 0.4%
lower than last season.
%%
Forecast milk collection for the
2023/24 season
1, 4 6 5M
kgMS
Forecast Farmgate Milk Price for
the 2023/24 season
NZD
per
kgMS
%
7. 3 0 -
8.30
Outlook for Fonterra
in New Zealand
%
%
%%
%
%
To view more information,
including a snapshot of the
rolling year‑to‑date results –
%
6
GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE
JAN
MAR
JUL
NOV
FEB
MAY
DEC
AUG
,
,
,
,
.
.
.
.
.
.
PRICE INDEX
NZD USD
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results
Fonterra GDT sales
by destination:
Dairy commodity prices and New Zealand
dollar trend
Financial markets enjoyed a period of relative calm over
February. Globally, economic data has evidenced ongoing
resilience in labour markets and tentative signs of recovery in
the manufacturing sector, while levels of inflation continued
to decline – the ensuing positive risk sentiment saw equity
markets advance. The NZD/USD exchange rate continued to
trade near the 61 US cent level.
Fonterra GDT results at
trading event 350
20 February 2024:
The next trading event will be held on 5 March 2024. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.
Change in Fonterra’s
weighted average product
price from previous event
1.7
Fonterra’s weighted
average product price
(USD/MT)
3,722
USD
Fonterra product quantity
sold on GDT
000’ MT
22.2
NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)
SOUTH EAST ASIA
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
OTHER
USD 4,143/MT
7.3
CHEDDAR
USD 6,552/MT
8.6
AMF
USD 6,546/MT
0.5
BUTTER
USD 2,813/MT
0.7
SMP
USD 3,382/MT
2.2
WMP
22,234
MT
LATEST AUCTION
413,638
MT
FINANCIAL
YEAR‑TO‑DATE
7
Our Performance
Cheese tops the menu
for Lunar New Year
Lunar New Year celebrations
run throughout mid‑
February as families gather
across China and Southeast
Asia to celebrate the Year of
the Dragon.
And they’re likely to be
eating mozzarella and cream
cheese produced here in
New Zealand.
The fusion of traditional
Chinese pastries and dairy
ingredients is increasingly
popular around Lunar New
Year when families gather
to celebrate.
Fonterra’s Darfield site is
forecast to export around
20,000 MT of cream cheese
to China this season, and
1,500 MT to Southeast Asia.
Demand for Darfield’s cream
cheese is increasing, largely
driven by an expanding
middle class and the growing
appetite for cream cheese in
a wide range of applications
from bakery to beverage.
In fact, the site has
increased its production
of cream cheese to meet
demand in the lead up to
Lunar New Year.
The team recently made
significant efficiency, quality,
and yield improvements
– managing to increase
annual throughput by an
additional 2,100 MT per
year – all executed with zero
capital spend.
Talking about the
improvements, Site
Operations Manager
Blake Aston says: “We’re
very connected with our
customers in market, and
this is a great example of
how the team has embraced
process change to meet the
increased demand.”
Cream cheese from Darfield
is commonly used in tea
macchiatos in China, made
using a base of Chinese tea,
topped with a cap of cream
and cream cheese that is
whipped together until
it forms a light and fluffy
texture. Other popular items
made using cream cheese
include cheese lollipops
and cheesecakes.
Meanwhile, Fonterra’s
Clandeboye site exported
around 56,000 MT of IQF
Mozzarella (Individually
Quick‑Frozen Mozzarella) in
FY23, with China being the
main export market at over
60% share.
That’s about 1.2 MT of
mozzarella for every person
in Timaru district (pop:
46,296 at 2018 Census)!
It was part of the
360,000 MT of total product
made by the Clandeboye
team of 1,000 who live and
work in South Canterbury
and surrounding areas.
Around 895 farms in the
Central South Island supply
the milk to Clandeboye site,
which ends up in dumplings
and hot pots around Lunar
New Year.
Demand for IQF Mozzarella
into China is currently
forecasted to grow 10% year
on year as the popularity
of pizza in China grows.
This includes the expansion
of pizza shops into lower
tier cities outside of the
big cities.
Clandeboye will continue
to be an important site
for China with it currently
producing 90% of all
IQF Mozzarella made
by Fonterra.
Conrad Harle, Clandeboye
Site Operations Manager,
says: “It’s a proud moment
to see products made here
at Clandeboye ending up
on plates in big cities like
Beijing, Shanghai, or Hanoi.”
“With more than
1,000 employees, we’re a big
part of the local economy,
providing jobs for the region
and helping New Zealand
succeed on the world stage.”
Duck River clinches
coveted Champion
Butter title
Tasmanian‑produced
Duck River Premium
Butter, crafted at Fonterra
Australia’s Spreyton site,
clinched the coveted title
of Champion Butter at this
year's Australian Grand
Dairy Awards.
This achievement marks the
second consecutive win for
Duck River, surpassing strong
contenders – including
another Fonterra Australia
finalist, Western Star™ Butter
– to secure first place at the
forefront of dairy excellence.
Prior to this recognition,
Duck River achieved acclaim
at the 2023 Dairy Industry
Association of Australia
(DIAA) Australian Dairy
Product Awards, with the
Spreyton site securing four
gold and two silver medals
for butter and milk powder
products, and the trophy
for the best Consumer Pack
Butter in Tasmania.
The Australian Grand Dairy
Awards – now in its 25th year
– honours the highest quality
dairy products throughout
Australia and is the premier
dairy competition in
the nation, celebrating
agriculture and food. Duck
River's eligibility for national
recognition starts with state‑
based recognition and gold
medal victories to ensure
only the highest‑quality
products are up for judging.
Having achieved both
state and now national
acclaim, Duck River stands
as a testament to the
outstanding quality of milk
produced by Tasmanian dairy
farmers and the unwavering
dedication of our expert
butter makers at Spreyton.
This winning combination
ensures consumers are
buying Australia’s finest
crafted butter – only
available in Tasmania.
In this year's competition,
an expert panel of 17 judges
meticulously evaluated
close to 400 of Australia's
top dairy products based on
flavour, aroma, texture, body,
and appearance, affirming
Duck River's excellence
in each category. Judges
described Duck River Butter
as “smooth, creamy and
perfectly salted.”
Fonterra Australia Director of
Supply Chain and Operations
Rob Howell, shared
excitement in Duck River's
back‑to‑back recognition.
“We’re exceptionally proud
to have taken home the
Champion Butter award for
the second year running.
It would not be possible
without our hardworking
Tasmanian farmers and the
skilful craft of our team at
Spreyton who have been
making Duck River Butter for
more than 26 years,” he said.
“Duck River dates back
120 years to 1904, and it’s
clear our butter makers are
honouring the origins and
history of this well‑loved
butter with back‑to‑back
Champion Butters wins,”
Rob added.
Fonterra Australia Senior
Brand Manager, Marketing
Spreads, Linsey Macintosh
said Duck River Butter is
found in more than half
of Tasmanian households,
making it the state’s
number one butter and
spreads brand.
“Duck River Butter is a brand
that Tasmanians know and
love, and consistently choose
to purchase. It doesn’t just
hold the number one spot
in the butter and spreads
category, but it also claims
the number one position
for repeat rate of purchase,”
Linsey said.
“It’s impressive, 90 per
cent of customers come
back again to repurchase,”
she added.
Congratulations to everyone
contributing to the creation
of this iconic butter.
Our Co-op
8
PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
DEC JUL
JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR
LIQUID MILK M LITRES
EXPORTS
AUSTRALIA
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN
DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY
MT s
AVERAGE
IMPORTS
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA
ASIACHINA
SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT
MT s
AVERAGE
9
Supplementary Information
Global Dairy Market
The charts on the right
illustrate the year‑on‑year
changes in imports, exports
and production for a range of
countries that are important
players in global dairy trade.
The absolute size of
the bars represents the
change in imports, exports
or production, relative
to the same period the
previous year.
Averages are shown where
data is complete for the
regions presented.
NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to December; New Zealand and US to January.
NOTE: Data for EU, US and Australia to December; New Zealand to January.
NOTE: Data for Asia, China, Middle East & Africa, Latin America toDecember.
SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.
10
Supplementary Information
Fonterra milk
production
The table on the right
shows Fonterra milk solids
collected in New Zealand
and Australia compared
to the previous season.
MILK COLLECTION
(MILLION KGMS)
JANUARY
2024
JANUARY
2023
MONTHLY
CHANGE
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2023/24
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2022/23
SEASON-
TO-DATE
CHANGE
Total Fonterra
New Zealand
158.5161.4(1.8%)1,012.11,016.2(0.4%)
North Island85.790.6(5.4%)594.5611.4(2.8%)
South Island72.770.82.8%417.6404.83.2%
Australia9.79.52.1%66.566.20.5%
2023/24 season
forecast Farmgate
Milk Price (FGMP)
update
ANNOUNCEMENT
DATE
FORECAST
FGMP (NZD)
NZD/USD RATE AT
ANNOUNCEMENT
DATE
FORECAST
AVERAGE
CONVERSION
RATE FOR
2023/24
SEASON
PERCENTAGE
OF FORECAST
FOREIGN
EXCHANGE
EXPOSURE
FOR 2023/24
SEASON
HEDGED
PERCENTAGE
OF FOREIGN
EXCHANGE
OPTION
COVER
REMAINING
IN HEDGED
AMOUNT
RANGE MID-
POINT
12 February 2024$7.30‑
$8.30
$7.800.61500.613690%19%
7 December 2023$7.00‑
$8.00
$7.500.61440.613784%18%
As at the most recent update to the 2023/24 season forecast Farmgate Milk Price dated
12 February 2024:
• Fonterra hedged approximately 90% of the full year forecast USD cash flows related to the
2023/4 season forecast Farmgate Milk Price.
• Of that 90%, approximately 19% was hedged with foreign exchange options which have not yet
expired or been exercised.
• If the remaining 10% of the forecast USD cash flows were to be hedged at the 12 February 2024
spot rate of 0.6150, the average NZD/USD conversion rate for the 2024 season would
be 0.6136.
• Also shown for information are the equivalent measures at the date of the previous update to
the 2023/24 season Forecast Farmgate Milk Price on 7 December 2023.
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR
MAR
JAN OCT
FEB JUL
AUG
MAY
SEP
NOV
DEC
JUN
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD MT
11
Supplementary Information
Fonterra GDT results
This table provides more
information on the latest
results, including a snapshot
of the year‑to‑date results.
LAST TRADING EVENT
(20 FEBRUARY 2024)
YEAR-TO-DATE
(FROM 1 AUGUST 2023)
Quantity Sold on GDT
(Winning MT)
22,234413,638
Change in Quantity Sold on GDT
over same period last year
(22.9%)5.1%
Weighted Average Product Price
(USD/MT)
3,7223,251
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price over same period
last year
7.3%(11. 9%)
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price from previous event
1.7%–
Fonterra GDT results
This chart shows Fonterra
GDT prices and volumes over
the past 12 months.
12
AMF
Anhydrous Milk Fat.
BMP
Butter Milk Powder.
Cultured Products
Fermented milks that are
prepared by using starter
cultures and controlled
fermentation including
yoghurt, yoghurt drinks, sour
cream, crème fraiche.
DIRA
Dairy Industry Restructuring
Act 2001 (New Zealand).
Farmgate Milk Price
The price for milk supplied in
New Zealand to Fonterra by
farmer shareholders.
Fluid Products
The Fonterra grouping
of fluid milk products
(skim milk, whole milk
and cream – pasteurised
or UHT processed),
concentrated milk products
(evaporated milk and
sweetened condensed milk)
and yoghurt.
GDT
Global Dairy Trade, the
online provider of the twice
monthly global auctions of
dairy ingredients.
kgMS
Kilogram of milk solids, the
measure of the amount of
fat and protein in the milk
supplied to Fonterra.
MPC
Milk Protein Concentrate.
Non‑Reference Products
All dairy products,
except for Reference
Products, produced
by the New Zealand
Ingredients business.
Reference Products
The dairy products used
in the calculation of the
Farmgate Milk Price, which
are currently WMP, SMP,
BMP, butter and AMF.
Glossary
Season
New Zealand: A period
of 12 months to 31 May
in each year.
Australia: A period of
12 months to 30 June
in each year.
SMP
Skim Milk Powder.
WMP
Whole Milk Powder.
WPC
Whey Protein Concentrate.
WPI
Whey Protein Isolate.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time
Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.
- FSF — Fonterra Shareholders' Fund: Global Dairy Update February 20242024-02-29
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