Global Dairy Update November 2024
• Decision to proceed with sale process for Fonterra’s
Consumer businesses, as well as integrated businesses
Fonterra Oceania and Fonterra Sri Lanka.
1
Global Dairy
UPDATE
• New Zealand, Australia and US monthly
production increased. EU monthly
production decreased.
• New Zealand, Australia and US
monthly exports increased. EU monthly
exports decreased.
• Asia and Latin America monthly imports
increased. Middle East & Africa, Asia and China
monthly imports decreased.
• Fonterra New Zealand collections for October
were 205 million kgMS, 2.5% above October
last season. Season-to-date collections are
512.2 million kgMS, 4.7% above last season.
• Fonterra Australia collections in October were
12.2 million kgMS, 1.3% above October last
season. Season-to-date collections are 34.9
million kgMS, 2.1% above last season..
• Launched new UHT cream to unlock more markets in China.
Key Dates
5 December 2024
FY25 Q1 Business Update
March 2025
FY25 Interim Results Announcement
NOVEMBER 2024
• The next issue of the Global Dairy Update will be published
on 31 January 2025.
%%%
%%%%
%
Change for October 2024
compared to October 2023
Change for October 2024
compared October 2023
Change for September 2024
compared to September 2023
Change for September 2024
compared to September 2023
Change for the 12 months
to October 2024
Change for the 12 months
to October 2024
Change for the 12 months
to September 2024
Change for the 12 months
to September 2024
0.21.42.1
3.40.10.3
2.1
1.1
2
OUR MARKETS
Global Production
New Zealand, Australia and
US monthly production
increased. EU monthly
production decreased
New Zealand milk
production increased 2.1%
in October compared to the
same period the year prior.
The increase was mainly
due to warmer weather,
adequate rainfall and greater
sunlight levels in the North
Island. Production in lower
South Island was impacted
by heavy rainfall.
New Zealand milk
production for the
12 months to October was
up 1.1% on the previous
comparable period.
Fonterra New Zealand
collections are reported
for October, see page 5
for details.
Australia milk
production increased 1.4%
in September compared
to the same period the
year prior.
The increase was mainly
due to continued favourable
weather conditions in
Northern and Eastern
Victoria, with Western
Victoria volumes recovering
after a dry start to
the season.
Australia milk production for
the 12 months to September
was up 3.4% on the previous
comparable period.
Fonterra collections in
Australia are reported
for October, see page 5
for details.
EU milk production¹
decreased 2.1% in September
compared to the same
period the year prior.
The decrease was mainly
driven by the continued
impact of Bluetongue
disease in Germany.
EU milk production for the
12 months to September
was up 0.1% on the previous
comparable period.
US milk production
increased 0.2% in October
compared to the same
period the year prior.
The increase was mainly
driven by an increase in herd
sizes along with an increase
in yield per cow.
Texas and Kansas production
increased due to larger herd
sizes as producer margins
held steady. California was
adversely impacted by the
spread of avian flu through
the state.
US milk production for the
12 months to October was
down 0.3% on the previous
comparable period.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in production –
1 Excludes UK.
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in exports –
3
OUR MARKETS
Global Exports
New Zealand, Australia
and US monthly exports
increased. EU monthly
exports decreased
New Zealand dairy
exports increased 6.3%,
or 19,066 MT, in October
compared to the same
period last year.
The increase was mainly due
to higher export volumes
of WMP, milk proteins, fluid
milk products and butter.
This was partially offset
by lower export volumes
of AMF.
Exports for the 12 months to
October were up 2.3%, or
80,982 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to
higher export volumes of
WMP to China.
EU dairy exports¹
decreased 0.3%, or 1,485 MT,
in September compared
to the same period the
year prior.
The decrease was mainly due
to a sharp decline in export
volumes to Saudi Arabia
and Iraq.
Exports for the 12 months
to September were down
1.5%, or 104,061 MT, on the
previous comparable period.
This was mainly due to lower
export volumes of SMP,
infant formula and cultured
products to key markets
along with the constrained
milk production and
commodity price pressures
in European dairy markets.
US dairy exports
increased 8.7%, or 19,046 MT,
in September compared
to the same period the
year prior.
The increase was mainly
due to a jump in export
volumes of SMP to Mexico
along with an increase in
export volumes of dry whey
to Canada.
Exports for the 12 months to
September were up 0.9%, or
25,193 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to
the volume growth for
four consecutive months
supported by higher exports
to Mexico, Indonesia and
the Philippines.
Australia dairy exports
increased 10.3%, or 5,471 MT,
in September compared
to the same period the
year prior.
The increase was mainly due
to lower domestic demand
for dairy which has resulted
in higher volumes available
for exports.
Exports for the 12 months to
September were up 6.3%, or
41,048 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to higher
export volumes of SMP
and cheese. An increase in
production has led to more
exportable surplus.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
%%%
%%
%
%
Change for October 2024
compared to October 2023
Change for September 2024
compared to September 2023
Change for September 2024
compared to September 2023
Change for September 2024
compared to September 2023
Change for the 12 months
to September 2024
Change for the 12 months
to September 2024
Change for the 12 months
to October 2024
Change for the 12 months
to September 2024
8.7
6.3
6.3
1.5
0.9
10.3
0.3
2.3
%
1 Excludes UK.
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in imports –
4
OUR MARKETS
Global Imports
Asia and Latin America
monthly imports
increased. Middle East &
Africa and China monthly
imports decreased
Latin America dairy
import volumes¹ increased
10.1%, or 19,723 MT, in
September compared to the
same period the year prior.
The increase was mainly due
to higher import volumes of
SMP by Mexico and cheese
by Brazil and Mexico.
Imports for the 12 months to
September were up 7.6%, or
184,741 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to
continuous high import
volumes of cheese and fluid
milk products by Mexico.
Asia (excluding China)
dairy import volumes¹
increased 19.7%, or 73,972 MT,
in September compared
to the same period the
year prior.
The increase was mainly due
to higher import volumes of
fluid milk and SMP by the
Philippines and cheese and
SMP by Vietnam.
Imports for the 12 months to
September were up 13.1%, or
629,981 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to higher
import volumes of WMP
by Vietnam and fluid milk
products by the Philippines
and Vietnam.
Middle East and Africa
dairy import volumes¹
decreased 0.2%, or 966 MT,
in September compared
to the same period the
year prior.
The decrease was driven
by lower import volumes
of WMP by the UAE and
Algeria. This was partially
offset by slightly higher
import volumes of SMP by
Egypt and Nigeria.
Imports for the 12 months to
September were up 2.4%, or
139,286 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to
higher import volumes of
cheese by Iraq and UAE, SMP
and whey by Egypt and fluid
milk products by the UAE.
China dairy import
volumes decreased by
11. 8%, or 27,361 MT, in
October compared to the
same period the year prior.
The decrease was driven
by lower import volumes
of fluid milk products and
SMP slightly offset by higher
whey imports.
Imports for the 12 months
to October were down
12.2%, or 581,928 MT, on the
previous comparable period.
This was mainly due to an
ongoing decline in import
volumes of SMP, WMP,
fluid milk products and
infant formula.
LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA
1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.
%%%%
%%
Change for September 2024
compared to September 2023
Change for October 2024
compared to October2023
Change for September 2024
compared to September 2023
Change for September 2024
compared to September 2023
Change for the 12 months
to September 2024
Change for the 12 months
to September 2024
Change for the 12 months
to September 2024
11.819.710.1
13.12.4
%
Change for the 12 months
to October 2024
12.2
0.2
7.6
%
To view a table that shows
detailed milk collections in New
Zealand and Australia compared
to the previous season –
%%
%%
Season-to-date 1 July to 31 October
compared to prior season
Season-to-date 1 June to 31 October
compared to prior season
Season-to-date 1 June to 31 October
compared to prior season
Season-to-date 1 June to 31 October
compared to prior season
Change for October 2024
compared to October 2023
Change for October 2024
compared to October 2023
Change for October 2024
compared to October 2023
Change for October 2024
compared to October 2023
1.30.2
2.6
4.62.5
2.15.94.7
VOLUME M LITRESDAY
JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
5
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Milk Collections
NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA
New Zealand Milk Collections
Fonterra's Australia
collections in October
were 12.2 million kgMS, 1.3%
above October last season.
The increase was mainly
due to continued favourable
weather conditions in
Northern and Eastern
Victoria, with Western
Victoria volumes recovering
after a dry start to
the season.
Season-to-date collections
are 34.9 million kgMS, 2.1%
above last season.
North Island milk
collections in October were
119 million kgMS, 4.6% above
October last season.
The increase was mainly
due to ongoing favourable
weather conditions across
the region contributing to
strong pasture growth.
Season-to-date collections
are 324.4 million kgMS, 5.9%
above last season.
South Island milk
collections in October
were 86.0 million kgMS,
0.2% lower than October
last season.
The decrease was mainly due
to heavy rainfall in the lower
South Island with some areas
showing a large water table
surplus for this time of year.
Season-to-date collections
are 187.9 million kgMS, 2.6%
above last season.
Fonterra's New Zealand
collections for October
were 205 million kgMS, 2.5%
above October last season.
The increase was mainly
due to favourable weather
and soil conditions in the
North Island partially offset
by wet weather conditions in
the lower South Island.
Season-to-date collections
are 512.2 million kgMS, 4.7%
above last season.
%%
%%
Forecast milk collections for the
2024/25 season
1, 4 9 8M
kgMS
Forecast Farmgate Milk Price for
the 2024/25 season
NZD
per
kgMS
9.00-
10.00
Outlook for Fonterra
in New Zealand
For the period 1 June 2024
to 31 October 2024, off-GDT
sales have contributed
approximately 3 cents per
kgMS to the Farmgate Milk
Price for the 2024/25 season.
%
%%
%
%
To view more information,
including a snapshot of the
rolling year-to-date results –
%
6
GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE
NOV
JAN
APR
AUG
NOV
MAR
SEP
JUN
,
,
,
.
.
.
.
.
PRICE INDEX
NZD USD
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results
Fonterra GDT sales
by destination:
Dairy commodity prices and New Zealand
dollar trend
The US Presidential election took centre stage over the
past month with the re-election of former President Trump
driving both general investor risk appetite and the USD
higher. Furthermore, increasing tension between Russia and
NATO provided additional support to the USD in the form of
a safe-haven bid. The NZD/USD exchange rate declined to
58.5 US cents.
Fonterra GDT results at
trading event 368
19 November 2024:
The next trading event will be held on 3 December 2024. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.
Change in Fonterra’s
weighted average product
price from previous event
2.0
Fonterra’s weighted
average product price
(USD/MT)
4,143
USD
Fonterra product quantity
sold on GDT
000’ MT
34.1
NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)
SOUTH EAST ASIA
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
OTHER
USD 4,834/MT
2.8
CHEDDAR
USD 3,823/MT
3.0
WMP
USD 7,622/MT
0.8
AMF
USD 2,911/MT
1.4
SMP
USD 6,976/MT
0.8
BUTTER
34,148
MT
LATEST AUCTION
281,787
MT
FINANCIAL
YEAR‑TO‑DATE
7
Our Performance
Decision to proceed
with sale process for
Fonterra’s Consumer
businesses, as well as
integrated businesses
Fonterra Oceania and
Fonterra Sri Lanka
CEO Miles Hurrell says,
following a detailed scoping
phase, the Co-op has decided
to proceed with a sale
process for these businesses.
“Since our announcement
in May 2024, we have been
working with our team of
advisors to assess potential
divestment options, the
assets and businesses in
scope, and the best pathway
to maximise value for
our Co-op.
“This work, coupled with the
confidence we have in our
revised strategic direction,
has confirmed a divestment
of our global Consumer
and associated businesses
is in the best interests of
the Co-op.
“Our revised strategy will see
us prioritise our Ingredients
and Foodservice businesses,
creating a more focused and
higher performing Co-op.
We have received
meaningful buyer interest
in the businesses in scope
for divestment, which is
testament to their strength
and potential.
“Through the scoping
phase, we have assessed
both a trade sale and IPO
as attractive divestment
options and will now prepare
for a sale process which will
pursue both options,” says
Mr Hurrell.
Advisors have been selected
to assist in managing
this process.
“We will thoroughly test
the terms and value of
both a trade sale and IPO
with the market before
seeking support from
farmer shareholders for a
divestment option through
a vote.
“A final decision on which
divestment pathway to
pursue will be based on
several factors, including
which option will result in
optimal long-term value for
the Co-op,” says Mr Hurrell.
Fonterra will provide updates
over the coming months
as this programme of work
progresses and continues
to target a significant
capital return to be made
to farmer shareholders
and unit holders following
the divestment.
Our Co-op
8
Launched new UHT
cream to unlock more
markets in China
Fonterra is expanding its
Foodservice offerings in
China with the launch
of a mid-tier UHT cream
for bakeries.
The new Anchor™ Easy
Bakery cream was revealed
at the China International
Import Expo (CIIE) in
Shanghai which ran from
5-10 November.
Foodservice is a high-value
channel for Fonterra,
including top selling
products such as cream
cheese, UHT cream and
mozzarella, and is a key part
of the Co-op's strategy.
Teh-han Chow, Fonterra
Greater China CEO, says
innovative products like the
Anchor™ Easy Bakery cream
is key to maintaining and
growing the Co-op's market
share in China.
"We have a strong
Foodservice business in
China and tapping into new
markets with products like
this is key to maintaining
our leadership position in
this competitive market and
expanding our footprint into
new cities," says Chow.
Made with 100%
New Zealand dairy, the
Anchor™ Easy Bakery cream
is designed for the mid-tier
market in China, which is the
fastest growing segment of
the UHT cream market.
Demand for UHT cream
continues to increase in
China, driven largely by
a growing middle class,
urbanisation and increased
awareness of the nutritional
value of dairy.
"The Anchor™ Easy Bakery
cream aims to attract new
customers who want a full
dairy bakery cream with
good functionality at a
competitive price. Together
with our Anchor™ Whipping
Cream, this new product will
consolidate our leadership
position in the UHT market,"
says Chow.
Aside from the new UHT
cream, Fonterra showcased a
number of other innovative
and sustainably produced
dairy products at its booth at
CIIE this year.
“CIIE is a great platform
for Fonterra to showcase
our high-quality dairy
products and demonstrate
our strategic focuses on
sustainability, nutrition
health and locally driven
innovation,” adds Chow.
Fonterra has six application
centres in China, allowing
it to work closely with
customers and technical
experts to co-create new
product applications using
the Co-op’s dairy products.
Fonterra's booth this year
also showcased the Co-op's
progress in sustainability
with innovations such as the
Carbon Footprinter, a tool
created to help customers
calculate the emissions
profile of products which
in turn helps them manage
their carbon footprint.
PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
DEC JUL
JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR
LIQUID MILK M LITRES
EXPORTS
AUSTRALIA
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY
MT s
AVERAGE
IMPORTS
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA
ASIACHINA
SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV
JAN DEC
JUL OCT
MT s
AVERAGE
9
Supplementary Information
Global Dairy Market
The charts on the right
illustrate the year-on-year
changes in imports, exports
and production for a range of
countries that are important
players in global dairy trade.
The absolute size of
the bars represents the
change in imports, exports
or production, relative
to the same period the
previous year.
Averages are shown where
data is complete for the
regions presented.
NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to September; New Zealand and US to October.
NOTE: Data for EU, US and Australia to September; New Zealand to October.
NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa, Latin America to September; China to October.
SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.
10
Supplementary Information
Fonterra milk
production
The table on the right
shows Fonterra milk solids
collected in New Zealand
and Australia compared
to the previous season.
MILK COLLECTION
(MILLION KGMS)
OCTOBER
2024
OCTOBER
2023
MONTHLY
CHANGE
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2024/25
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2023/24
SEASON-
TO-DATE
CHANGE
Total Fonterra
New Zealand
205.0200.02.5%512.2489.44.7%
North Island119.0113.84.6%324.4306.35.9%
South Island86.086.2(0.2%)187.9183.12.6%
Australia12.212. 11.3%34.934.22.1%
2024/25 season
forecast Farmgate
Milk Price (FGMP)
update
ANNOUNCEMENT
DATE
FORECAST
FGMP (NZD)
NZD/USD RATE AT
ANNOUNCEMENT
DATE
FORECAST
AVERAGE
CONVERSION
RATE FOR
2024/25
SEASON
PERCENTAGE
OF FORECAST
FOREIGN
EXCHANGE
EXPOSURE
FOR 2024/25
SEASON
HEDGED
PERCENTAGE
OF FOREIGN
EXCHANGE
OPTION
COVER
REMAINING
IN HEDGED
AMOUNT
RANGE MID-
POINT
11 Nov 2024$9.00-
$10.0
$9.500.59670.605281%18%
25 Sep 2024$8.25-
$9.75
$9.000.63380.619072%18%
As at the most recent update to the 2024/25 season forecast Farmgate Milk Price on 11 November 2024:
• Fonterra had hedged approximately 81% of the full year forecast USD cash flows related to the
2024/25 season Farmgate Milk Price.
• Of that 81%, approximately 18% was hedged with foreign exchange options which had not yet expired
or been exercised.
• If the remaining 19% of the forecast USD cash flows were to be hedged at the 11 November 2024 spot
rate of 0.5967, the average NZD/USD conversion rate for the 2025 season would be 0.6052.
• Also shown for information are the equivalent measures at the date of the previous forecast of the
2024/25 season Farmgate Milk Price on 25 September.
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR
MAR
JAN
OCT
FEB
JUL
AUG
MAY
SEP
NOV
DEC JUN
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD MT
11
Supplementary Information
Fonterra GDT results
This table provides more
information on the latest
results, including a snapshot
of the year-to-date results.
LAST TRADING EVENT
(19 NOVEMBER 2024)
YEAR-TO-DATE
(FROM 1 AUGUST 2024)
Quantity Sold on GDT
(Winning MT)
34,148281,787
Change in Quantity Sold on GDT
over same period last year
4.2%4.9%
Weighted Average Product Price
(USD/MT)
4,1433,921
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price over same period
last year
25.7%26.0%
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price from previous event
2.0%–
Fonterra GDT results
This chart shows Fonterra
GDT prices and volumes over
the past 12 months.
12
AMF
Anhydrous Milk Fat.
BMP
Butter Milk Powder.
Cultured Products
Fermented milks that are
prepared by using starter
cultures and controlled
fermentation including
yoghurt, yoghurt drinks, sour
cream, crème fraiche.
DIRA
Dairy Industry Restructuring
Act 2001 (New Zealand).
Farmgate Milk Price
The price for milk supplied in
New Zealand to Fonterra by
farmer shareholders.
Fluid Products
The Fonterra grouping
of fluid milk products
(skim milk, whole milk
and cream – pasteurised
or UHT processed),
concentrated milk products
(evaporated milk and
sweetened condensed milk)
and yoghurt.
GDT
Global Dairy Trade, the
online provider of the twice
monthly global auctions of
dairy ingredients.
kgMS
Kilogram of milk solids, the
measure of the amount of
fat and protein in the milk
supplied to Fonterra.
MPC
Milk Protein Concentrate.
Non-Reference Products
All dairy products,
except for Reference
Products, produced
by the New Zealand
Ingredients business.
Reference Products
The dairy products used
in the calculation of the
Farmgate Milk Price, which
are currently WMP, SMP,
BMP, butter and AMF.
Glossary
Season
New Zealand: A period
of 12 months to 31 May
in each year.
Australia: A period of
12 months to 30 June
in each year.
SMP
Skim Milk Powder.
WMP
Whole Milk Powder.
WPC
Whey Protein Concentrate.
WPI
Whey Protein Isolate.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time
Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.
- FSF — Fonterra Shareholders' Fund: Global Dairy Update November 20242024-11-28
“• Decision to proceed with sale process for Fonterra’s Consumer businesses, as well as integrated businesses Fonterra Oceania and Fonterra Sri Lanka. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • New Zealand, Australia and US monthly production increased. EU monthly production decreased. • N…”
- FSF — Fonterra Shareholders' Fund: Global Dairy Update October 20242024-10-30
“•Changes to Fonterra Management Team to support the next phase of its strategic delivery. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE •New Zealand, Australia and US monthly production increased. EU monthly production decreased. • Ne w Zealand, EU and US monthly exports increased. Australia monthly e…”
- FSF — Fonterra Shareholders' Fund: Global Dairy Update January 20252025-01-30
“• Fonterra announces its largest decarbonisation project to date. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • New Zealand and EU monthly production increased. Australia and US monthly production decreased. • Australia and EU monthly exports increased. New Zealand and US monthly exports de…”