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Global Dairy Update November 2024

Operational Update28 November 2024FSFConsumer Staples

• Decision to proceed with sale process for Fonterra’s
Consumer businesses, as well as integrated businesses

Fonterra Oceania and Fonterra Sri Lanka.

1

Global Dairy

UPDATE

• New Zealand, Australia and US monthly

production increased. EU monthly

production decreased.

• New Zealand, Australia and US

monthly exports increased. EU monthly

exports decreased.

• Asia and Latin America monthly imports

increased. Middle East & Africa, Asia and China

monthly imports decreased.

• Fonterra New Zealand collections for October

were 205 million kgMS, 2.5% above October

last season. Season-to-date collections are

512.2 million kgMS, 4.7% above last season.

• Fonterra Australia collections in October were

12.2 million kgMS, 1.3% above October last

season. Season-to-date collections are 34.9

million kgMS, 2.1% above last season..

• Launched new UHT cream to unlock more markets in China.

Key Dates

5 December 2024

FY25 Q1 Business Update

March 2025

FY25 Interim Results Announcement

NOVEMBER 2024

• The next issue of the Global Dairy Update will be published

on 31 January 2025.

%%%
%%%%

%

Change for October 2024

compared to October 2023

Change for October 2024

compared October 2023

Change for September 2024

compared to September 2023

Change for September 2024

compared to September 2023

Change for the 12 months

to October 2024

Change for the 12 months

to October 2024

Change for the 12 months

to September 2024

Change for the 12 months

to September 2024

0.21.42.1

3.40.10.3

2.1

1.1

2

OUR MARKETS

Global Production

New Zealand, Australia and

US monthly production

increased. EU monthly

production decreased

New Zealand milk

production increased 2.1%

in October compared to the

same period the year prior.

The increase was mainly

due to warmer weather,

adequate rainfall and greater

sunlight levels in the North

Island. Production in lower

South Island was impacted

by heavy rainfall.

New Zealand milk

production for the

12 months to October was

up 1.1% on the previous

comparable period.

Fonterra New Zealand

collections are reported

for October, see page 5

for details.

Australia milk

production increased 1.4%

in September compared

to the same period the

year prior.

The increase was mainly

due to continued favourable

weather conditions in

Northern and Eastern

Victoria, with Western

Victoria volumes recovering

after a dry start to

the season.

Australia milk production for

the 12 months to September

was up 3.4% on the previous

comparable period.

Fonterra collections in

Australia are reported

for October, see page 5

for details.

EU milk production¹

decreased 2.1% in September

compared to the same

period the year prior.

The decrease was mainly

driven by the continued

impact of Bluetongue

disease in Germany.

EU milk production for the

12 months to September

was up 0.1% on the previous

comparable period.

US milk production

increased 0.2% in October

compared to the same

period the year prior.

The increase was mainly

driven by an increase in herd

sizes along with an increase

in yield per cow.

Texas and Kansas production

increased due to larger herd

sizes as producer margins

held steady. California was

adversely impacted by the

spread of avian flu through

the state.

US milk production for the

12 months to October was

down 0.3% on the previous

comparable period.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

1 Excludes UK.

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

Global Exports

New Zealand, Australia

and US monthly exports

increased. EU monthly

exports decreased

New Zealand dairy

exports increased 6.3%,

or 19,066 MT, in October

compared to the same

period last year.

The increase was mainly due

to higher export volumes

of WMP, milk proteins, fluid

milk products and butter.

This was partially offset

by lower export volumes

of AMF.

Exports for the 12 months to

October were up 2.3%, or

80,982 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was mainly due to

higher export volumes of

WMP to China.

EU dairy exports¹

decreased 0.3%, or 1,485  MT,

in September compared

to the same period the

year prior.

The decrease was mainly due

to a sharp decline in export

volumes to Saudi Arabia

and Iraq.

Exports for the 12 months

to September were down

1.5%, or 104,061 MT, on the

previous comparable period.

This was mainly due to lower

export volumes of SMP,

infant formula and cultured

products to key markets

along with the constrained

milk production and

commodity price pressures

in European dairy markets.

US dairy exports

increased 8.7%, or 19,046  MT,

in September compared

to the same period the

year prior.

The increase was mainly

due to a jump in export

volumes of SMP to Mexico

along with an increase in

export volumes of dry whey

to Canada.

Exports for the 12 months to

September were up 0.9%, or

25,193 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was mainly due to

the volume growth for

four consecutive months

supported by higher exports

to Mexico, Indonesia and

the Philippines.

Australia dairy exports

increased 10.3%, or 5,471  MT,

in September compared

to the same period the

year prior.

The increase was mainly due

to lower domestic demand

for dairy which has resulted

in higher volumes available

for exports.

Exports for the 12 months to

September were up 6.3%, or

41,048 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was mainly due to higher

export volumes of SMP

and cheese. An increase in

production has led to more

exportable surplus.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

%%%

%%

%

%

Change for October 2024

compared to October 2023

Change for September 2024

compared to September 2023

Change for September 2024

compared to September 2023

Change for September 2024

compared to September 2023

Change for the 12 months

to September 2024

Change for the 12 months

to September 2024

Change for the 12 months

to October 2024

Change for the 12 months

to September 2024

8.7

6.3

6.3

1.5

0.9

10.3

0.3

2.3

%

1 Excludes UK.

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

Global Imports

Asia and Latin America

monthly imports

increased. Middle East &

Africa and China monthly

imports decreased

Latin America dairy

import volumes¹ increased

10.1%, or 19,723 MT, in

September compared to the

same period the year prior.

The increase was mainly due

to higher import volumes of

SMP by Mexico and cheese

by Brazil and Mexico.

Imports for the 12 months to

September were up 7.6%, or

184,741 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was mainly due to

continuous high import

volumes of cheese and fluid

milk products by Mexico.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

increased 19.7%, or 73,972  MT,

in September compared

to the same period the

year prior.

The increase was mainly due

to higher import volumes of

fluid milk and SMP by the

Philippines and cheese and

SMP by Vietnam.

Imports for the 12 months to

September were up 13.1%, or

629,981 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was mainly due to higher

import volumes of WMP

by Vietnam and fluid milk

products by the Philippines

and Vietnam.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 0.2%, or 966 MT,

in September compared

to the same period the

year prior.

The decrease was driven

by lower import volumes

of WMP by the UAE and

Algeria. This was partially

offset by slightly higher

import volumes of SMP by

Egypt and Nigeria.

Imports for the 12 months to

September were up 2.4%, or

139,286 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was mainly due to

higher import volumes of

cheese by Iraq and UAE, SMP

and whey by Egypt and fluid

milk products by the UAE.

China dairy import

volumes decreased by

11. 8%, or 27,361 MT, in

October compared to the

same period the year prior.

The decrease was driven

by lower import volumes

of fluid milk products and

SMP slightly offset by higher

whey imports.

Imports for the 12 months

to October were down

12.2%, or 581,928 MT, on the

previous comparable period.

This was mainly due to an

ongoing decline in import

volumes of SMP, WMP,

fluid milk products and

infant formula.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%%%%

%%

Change for September 2024

compared to September 2023

Change for October 2024

compared to October2023

Change for September 2024

compared to September 2023

Change for September 2024

compared to September 2023

Change for the 12 months

to September 2024

Change for the 12 months

to September 2024

Change for the 12 months

to September 2024

11.819.710.1

13.12.4

%

Change for the 12 months

to October 2024

12.2

0.2

7.6

%

To view a table that shows
detailed milk collections in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%%

%%

Season-to-date 1 July to 31 October

compared to prior season

Season-to-date 1 June to 31 October

compared to prior season

Season-to-date 1 June to 31 October

compared to prior season

Season-to-date 1 June to 31 October

compared to prior season

Change for October 2024

compared to October 2023

Change for October 2024

compared to October 2023

Change for October 2024

compared to October 2023

Change for October 2024

compared to October 2023

1.30.2

2.6

4.62.5

2.15.94.7

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY























5

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Milk Collections

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

New Zealand Milk Collections

Fonterra's Australia

collections in October

were 12.2 million kgMS, 1.3%

above October last season.

The increase was mainly

due to continued favourable

weather conditions in

Northern and Eastern

Victoria, with Western

Victoria volumes recovering

after a dry start to

the season.

Season-to-date collections

are 34.9 million kgMS, 2.1%

above last season.

North Island milk

collections in October were

119 million kgMS, 4.6% above

October last season.

The increase was mainly

due to ongoing favourable

weather conditions across

the region contributing to

strong pasture growth.

Season-to-date collections

are 324.4 million kgMS, 5.9%

above last season.

South Island milk

collections in October

were 86.0 million kgMS,

0.2% lower than October

last season.

The decrease was mainly due

to heavy rainfall in the lower

South Island with some areas

showing a large water table

surplus for this time of year.

Season-to-date collections

are 187.9 million kgMS, 2.6%

above last season.

Fonterra's New Zealand

collections for October

were 205 million kgMS, 2.5%

above October last season.

The increase was mainly

due to favourable weather

and soil conditions in the

North Island partially offset

by wet weather conditions in

the lower South Island.

Season-to-date collections

are 512.2 million kgMS, 4.7%

above last season.

%%

%%

Forecast milk collections for the

2024/25 season

1, 4 9 8M

kgMS

Forecast Farmgate Milk Price for

the 2024/25 season

NZD

per

kgMS

9.00-

10.00

Outlook for Fonterra

in New Zealand

For the period 1 June 2024

to 31 October 2024, off-GDT

sales have contributed

approximately 3 cents per

kgMS to the Farmgate Milk

Price for the 2024/25 season.

%
%%

%

%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

NOV JAN APR AUG NOV MAR SEP JUN





,

, 

,

.

.

.

.

.

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity prices and New Zealand

dollar trend

The US Presidential election took centre stage over the

past month with the re-election of former President Trump

driving both general investor risk appetite and the USD

higher. Furthermore, increasing tension between Russia and

NATO provided additional support to the USD in the form of

a safe-haven bid. The NZD/USD exchange rate declined to

58.5 US cents.

Fonterra GDT results at

trading event 368

19 November 2024:

The next trading event will be held on 3 December 2024. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

2.0

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

4,143

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

34.1

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 4,834/MT

2.8

CHEDDAR

USD 3,823/MT

3.0

WMP

USD 7,622/MT

0.8

AMF

USD 2,911/MT

1.4

SMP

USD 6,976/MT

0.8

BUTTER

34,148

MT

LATEST AUCTION

281,787

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
Our Performance

Decision to proceed

with sale process for

Fonterra’s Consumer

businesses, as well as

integrated businesses

Fonterra Oceania and

Fonterra Sri Lanka

CEO Miles Hurrell says,

following a detailed scoping

phase, the Co-op has decided

to proceed with a sale

process for these businesses.

“Since our announcement

in May 2024, we have been

working with our team of

advisors to assess potential

divestment options, the

assets and businesses in

scope, and the best pathway

to maximise value for

our Co-op.

“This work, coupled with the

confidence we have in our

revised strategic direction,

has confirmed a divestment

of our global Consumer

and associated businesses

is in the best interests of

the Co-op.

“Our revised strategy will see

us prioritise our Ingredients

and Foodservice businesses,

creating a more focused and

higher performing Co-op.

We have received

meaningful buyer interest

in the businesses in scope

for divestment, which is

testament to their strength

and potential.

“Through the scoping

phase, we have assessed

both a trade sale and IPO

as attractive divestment

options and will now prepare

for a sale process which will

pursue both options,” says

Mr Hurrell.

Advisors have been selected

to assist in managing

this process.

“We will thoroughly test

the terms and value of

both a trade sale and IPO

with the market before

seeking support from

farmer shareholders for a

divestment option through

a vote.

“A final decision on which

divestment pathway to

pursue will be based on

several factors, including

which option will result in

optimal long-term value for

the Co-op,” says Mr Hurrell.

Fonterra will provide updates

over the coming months

as this programme of work

progresses and continues

to target a significant

capital return to be made

to farmer shareholders

and unit holders following

the divestment.

Our Co-op
8

Launched new UHT

cream to unlock more

markets in China

Fonterra is expanding its

Foodservice offerings in

China with the launch

of a mid-tier UHT cream

for bakeries.

The new Anchor™ Easy

Bakery cream was revealed

at the China International

Import Expo (CIIE) in

Shanghai which ran from

5-10 November.

Foodservice is a high-value

channel for Fonterra,

including top selling

products such as cream

cheese, UHT cream and

mozzarella, and is a key part

of the Co-op's strategy.

Teh-han Chow, Fonterra

Greater China CEO, says

innovative products like the

Anchor™ Easy Bakery cream

is key to maintaining and

growing the Co-op's market

share in China.

"We have a strong

Foodservice business in

China and tapping into new

markets with products like

this is key to maintaining

our leadership position in

this competitive market and

expanding our footprint into

new cities," says Chow.

Made with 100%

New Zealand dairy, the

Anchor™ Easy Bakery cream

is designed for the mid-tier

market in China, which is the

fastest growing segment of

the UHT cream market.

Demand for UHT cream

continues to increase in

China, driven largely by

a growing middle class,

urbanisation and increased

awareness of the nutritional

value of dairy.

"The Anchor™ Easy Bakery

cream aims to attract new

customers who want a full

dairy bakery cream with

good functionality at a

competitive price. Together

with our Anchor™ Whipping

Cream, this new product will

consolidate our leadership

position in the UHT market,"

says Chow.

Aside from the new UHT

cream, Fonterra showcased a

number of other innovative

and sustainably produced

dairy products at its booth at

CIIE this year.

“CIIE is a great platform

for Fonterra to showcase

our high-quality dairy

products and demonstrate

our strategic focuses on

sustainability, nutrition

health and locally driven

innovation,” adds Chow.

Fonterra has six application

centres in China, allowing

it to work closely with

customers and technical

experts to co-create new

product applications using

the Co-op’s dairy products.

Fonterra's booth this year

also showcased the Co-op's

progress in sustainability

with innovations such as the

Carbon Footprinter, a tool

created to help customers

calculate the emissions

profile of products which

in turn helps them manage

their carbon footprint.

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL 

JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES















EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC  NOV  OCT SEP MAY 

MT s















AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV  JAN DEC  JUL OCT 

MT s













AVERAGE

9


Supplementary Information

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to September; New Zealand and US to October.

NOTE: Data for EU, US and Australia to September; New Zealand to October.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa, Latin America to September; China to October.

SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.

10

Supplementary Information

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

OCTOBER

2024

OCTOBER

2023

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2024/25

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2023/24

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

205.0200.02.5%512.2489.44.7%

North Island119.0113.84.6%324.4306.35.9%

South Island86.086.2(0.2%)187.9183.12.6%

Australia12.212. 11.3%34.934.22.1%

2024/25 season

forecast Farmgate

Milk Price (FGMP)

update

ANNOUNCEMENT

DATE

FORECAST

FGMP (NZD)

NZD/USD RATE AT

ANNOUNCEMENT

DATE

FORECAST

AVERAGE

CONVERSION

RATE FOR

2024/25

SEASON

PERCENTAGE

OF FORECAST

FOREIGN

EXCHANGE

EXPOSURE

FOR 2024/25

SEASON

HEDGED

PERCENTAGE

OF FOREIGN

EXCHANGE

OPTION

COVER

REMAINING

IN HEDGED

AMOUNT

RANGE MID-

POINT

11 Nov 2024$9.00-

$10.0

$9.500.59670.605281%18%

25 Sep 2024$8.25-

$9.75

$9.000.63380.619072%18%

As at the most recent update to the 2024/25 season forecast Farmgate Milk Price on 11 November 2024:

• Fonterra had hedged approximately 81% of the full year forecast USD cash flows related to the

2024/25 season Farmgate Milk Price.

• Of that 81%, approximately 18% was hedged with foreign exchange options which had not yet expired

or been exercised.

• If the remaining 19% of the forecast USD cash flows were to be hedged at the 11 November 2024 spot

rate of 0.5967, the average NZD/USD conversion rate for the 2025 season would be 0.6052.

• Also shown for information are the equivalent measures at the date of the previous forecast of the

2024/25 season Farmgate Milk Price on 25 September.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR

JAN

OCT

FEB

JUL

AUG

MAY

SEP

NOV

DEC JUN


,

,

,

 ,

,

,

,

,

,

,
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT

QUANTITY SOLD  MT

11


Supplementary Information

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(19 NOVEMBER 2024)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2024)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

34,148281,787

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

4.2%4.9%

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

4,1433,921

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

25.7%26.0%

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

2.0%–

Fonterra GDT results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

12
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

Cultured Products

Fermented milks that are

prepared by using starter

cultures and controlled

fermentation including

yoghurt, yoghurt drinks, sour

cream, crème fraiche.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products,

except for Reference

Products, produced

by the New Zealand

Ingredients business.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.


Glossary

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate.

WPI

Whey Protein Isolate.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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