Chorus Investor Day 2024
Chorus Limited
Level 10, 1 Willis Street
P O Box 632
Wellington
New Zealand
Email: company.secretary@chorus.co.nz
STOCK EXCHANGE ANNOUNCEMENT
2 December 2024
Chorus Investor Day 2024
The attached presentation materials will be delivered at Chorus’ Investor Day
commencing at 12:45pm (NZT).
The event will be webcast live on www.chorus.co.nz/webcast and a recording of the
presentations will be made available online on Tuesday 3
rd
December.
With the UFB rollout complete, Chorus is in transition from being the Great Network
Builder, to becoming the Great Network Operator. The briefing includes further detail on
Chorus’ recent strategic reset, in ‘Our Road to 2030’, including:
• a shift to a Purpose-led organisation: “Unleashing potential through connectivity.
Enabling better futures for Aotearoa.”
• a clear Aspiration for future success: “A simplified all-fibre business with 80 per
cent uptake by 2030.”
• a more competitive market challenger posture with focus on under-penetrated
markets, including new digital equity plans, to drive fibre uptake to 80%
• moving rapidly to retire the legacy copper network by 2030, as demand
diminishes, and ultimately reducing direct copper operating expenditure by
about $50 million per annum
Chorus notes a number of growth and optimisation opportunities are actively being
explored:
• recycling of about 4,000 kilometres of large copper cabling, over three to seven
years, with estimated net proceeds of approximately $30 million to $50 million.
This is subject to evaluation over FY25.
• reviewing options for non-core high sites with a $20 million net book value, which
may have a better alternative owner in market
• considering post-copper optionality for other land and buildings outside of UFB
areas, with a current net book value of about $75 million
• launching IoT asset management solutions under a new brand, Neura
• developing an alternative revenue model to scale EdgeCentres
• an exclusive memorandum of understanding with Datagrid to investigate the
potential for a Trans-Tasman Ring, providing enhanced international and
domestic data connectivity
• continuing to advocate for further fibre expansion to rural households through
the government’s Infrastructure Priorities Planning process
Any growth opportunities requiring further investment will be assessed against Chorus’
capital investment framework, noting the cornerstone of that framework is a
sustainable dividend that grows at the rate of inflation.
Chorus’ strategy will result in a shift to a simpler, more efficient and more competitive
all-fibre operator. This is underpinned by fibre regulatory settings that provide greater
clarity and stability over the next four years. New Zealand and global trends also clearly
back fibre as essential digital infrastructure for reliability and scalability. As bandwidth
demand continues to grow, Chorus is forecasting monthly average data usage of 1,000
gigabytes by 2029 as more terrestrial broadcast TV content moves online.
FY25 guidance reconfirmed
EBITDA: $700 million to $720 million
Gross capital expenditure: $400 million to $440 million
Sustaining capital expenditure: $200 million to $220 million
Dividend: 57.5 cents per share, unimputed
FY25 guidance is subject to no material adverse changes in circumstances or outlook.
Authorised by:
Mark Aue
Chief Executive Officer
ENDS
For further information:
Brett Jackson
Investor Relations Manager
Phone: +64 4 896 4039
Mobile: +64 (27) 488 7808
Email: Brett.Jackson@chorus.co.nz
Vicki Gan
Media and Content Manager
Mobile: +64 (22) 075 0159
Email: vicki.gan@chorus.co.nz
---
2
12:45WelcomeMark AueCEO
12:50Board perspectiveMark CrossChair
1:00StrategyMark AueCEO
1:20Global broadband trendsRupert WoodAnalysys Mason – Research Director
1:40Data demandKurt RodgersNetwork Strategy Manager
2:00Achieving 80% uptakeElaine CampbellGM Access
2:20Q&A
2:35Afternoon tea break
2:50Infrastructure opportunitiesMike ShirleyGM Infrastructure
3:10Future-proof fibreEwen PowellChief Technology Officer
3:25Regulatory outlookJulian KerseyChief Corporate & Regulatory Officer
3:40Copper retirementAnna MitchellGM Fibre Frontier
4:00Financial outlookDrew DaviesChief Operating Officer
4:15Q&A
4:30Close
Mark AueCEO
Chorus Investor Day 2024 - Agenda
---
Disclaimer
2
INVESTOR DAY 2024
This presentation:
•Is provided for general information purposes and does not constitute investment advice or an offer of or invitation
to purchase Chorus securities.
•Includes forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees or predictions of future performance.
They involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond Chorus’
control, and which may cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in this presentation.
•Includes statements relating to past performance which should not be regarded as reliable indicators of future
performance.
•Is current at the date of this presentation, unless otherwise stated. Except as required by law or the NZX Main
Board and ASX listing rules, Chorus is not under any obligation to update this presentation, whether as a result of
new information, future events or otherwise.
•Should be read in conjunction with Chorus’ audited consolidated financial statements for the year to 30 June
2024 and NZX and ASX market releases.
•Includes non-GAAP financial measures such as "EBITDA”. These measures do not have a standardised meaning
prescribed by GAAP and therefore may not be comparable to similar financial information presented by other
entities. They should not be used in substitution for, or isolation of, Chorus' audited consolidated financial
statements. We monitor EBITDA as a key performance indicator, and we believe it assists investors in assessing
the performance of the core operations of our business.
•Has been prepared with due care and attention. However, Chorus and its directors and employees accept no
liability for any errors or omissions.
•Contains information from third parties Chorus believes reliable. However, no representations or warranties
(express or implied) are made as to the accuracy or completeness of such information.
3
CHORUS
CEO
MARK AUE
Why we’ve invited you here today
4
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Provide
greater
clarity and
transparency
on Our Road
to 2030
Market
context has
shifted. Reset
our Strategy
Transitioning
from builder
to ‘Great
Network
Operator’
Purpose and
aspiration are
clear
Capital
framework
premised on
discipline
Evolving to a
simpler, more
efficient, and
competitive
operator
5
12:45WelcomeMark AueCEO
12:50Board perspectiveMark CrossChair
1:00StrategyMark AueCEO
1:20Global broadband trendsRupert WoodAnalysys Mason – Research Director
1:40Data demandKurt RodgersNetwork Strategy Manager
2:00Achieving 80% uptakeElaine CampbellGM Access
2:20Q&A
2:35Afternoon tea break
2:50Infrastructure opportunitiesMike ShirleyGM Infrastructure
3:10Future-proof fibreEwen PowellChief Technology Officer
3:25Regulatory outlookJulian KerseyChief Corporate & Regulatory Officer
3:40Copper retirementAnna MitchellGM Fibre Frontier
4:00Financial outlookDrew DaviesChief Operating Officer
4:15Q&A
4:30Close
Mark AueCEO
Agenda
6
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Who you’ll hear from: Chorus speakers
Mark Cross
Chair, Chorus Board
Mark Aue
Chief Executive Officer
Elaine Campbell
Executive GM, Access
Mike Shirley
Executive GM, Infrastructure
Ewen Powell
Chief Technology Officer
Julian Kersey
Chief Corporate and
Regulatory Officer
Anna Mitchell
Executive GM,
Fibre Frontier
Drew Davies
Chief Operating Officer
Kurt Rodgers
Network Strategy Manager
7
CHORUS
BOARD CHAIR
MARK CROSS
Your Board’s beliefs
8
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Empowering
our people
Fibre is
future
proofed
Connections,
connections,
connections
Managed exit
from Copper
Market
challenger
Promote
digital equity
A considered
approach to
new
opportunities
An
appropriate
capital
structure
Prioritise
long term
value
through
capital
allocation
9
10
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Fibre has proven resilient in a time of change
02468
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
CPI (%)
0200004000060000
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
New dwellings consented
012345
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
Unemployment (%)
050100150
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
Consumer confidence
Data at 30 June 2024
11
INVESTOR DAY 2024
We have regulatory clarity
Fibre regime now well established;
our focus is legacy copper settings
•Fibre RAB has grown through PQP1: $5.9bn at 31 Dec 2023
•PQP2 period extended to 4 years, up from 3 years for PQP1
•PQP2 capex and opex allowances are workable following
constructive feedback process with Commission
•Final PQP2 MAR decision imminent: core RAB depreciation
adjustment proposed to reflect MAR tailwinds
•Commission review due in 2025 on copper deregulation
12
INVESTOR DAY 2024
An evolving broadband market – all NZ
Household penetration/fibre share %
Source: IDC Telecommunications Market Analysis & Forecast Report 2024
Market share by retailer
13
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Deloitte October
2024 Report:
“Unleashing
fibre: The
future of digital
fibre
infrastructure in
New Zealand”
14
15
INVESTOR DAY 2024
15
HORIZON 1
(FY25)
Embed Adaptive
Organisation
‘getting future
fit for purpose‘
HORIZON 2
(FY26-29)
Growth, Simplicity
and Efficiency
‘accelerating the
benefits from our
transition‘
HORIZON 3
(FY30-34)
All Fibre Business
‘future state,
single technology‘
10-year outlook with 3 distinct horizons
Simplified all fibre business with 80%
uptake by 2030.
16
ASPIRATION
Unleashing potential through connectivity.
Enabling better futures for Aotearoa.
17
PURPOSE
18
Our Ecosystem
INVESTOR DAY 2024
•Employee volunteering programme
•Cabinet art programme with local
councils
•Charitable donations and support for
digital inclusion initiatives (Digital
Senior expansion into Auckland and
regions, Katoa Connect – Hapori
Connect Programme, Netsafe get set
up for safety)
•New Digital Equity product for
vulnerable customers in material
hardship
•Doing our bit for a low emission
future: Science Based target and
supporting Emissions Reduction
programme, solar on exchange trial, e-
waste programme, energy efficiency
focus, Future Fit tool for employees,
Recycle a Device support
•Understanding climate change and
nature impacts: Climate related risk &
opportunity register & action plans, nature
related opportunity assessment, climate
assessment for asset investment and
management, transition planning
•Enabling better futures for our
people: Flexible working practices,
wellbeing days, parental leave policy,
subsidised broadband and life/income
continuance insurance
•Diverse & Inclusive workplace -
Gender Tick, Pride Pledge and
Accessibility Tick accreditation, Te Ao
Māori programme
•Engaged culture - Engagement (top
10% of industry),eNPS (top 5% of
industry)
•Telecommunications Forum initiatives on
network resilience and climate change
•Worker welfare programme
•Supplier code of practice and supplier
forums
•Nokia ESG council participation (Asia
region)
•Collaborating for sustainable
action: Sustainable Business Council,
Climate Leaders Coalition, Sustainable
Leaders Summit, ESP BraveGen
OUR PEOPLE
OUR ENVIRONMENT
OUR CUSTOMERS, PARTNERS
AND INVESTORS
OUR COMMUNITIES
19
Capability
INVESTOR DAY 2024
BUSINESS
MODEL
CORE
COMPETENCIES
Tangible Assets
Go-to-Market
Regulatory
Management
Efficient Network
Operator
Infrastructure
Player
Market
Challenger
20
Strategic Pillars
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Our Road to 2030
Growth, Simplicity & Efficiency
21
PURPOSE
ASPIRATION
BUSINESS
MODEL
CORE
COMPETENCIES
STRATEGIC
PILLARS &
PRIORITIES
Unleashing potential through connectivity. Enabling better futures for Aotearoa.
Simplified all fibre business with 80% uptake by 2030.
Efficient Network
Operator
Market
Challenger
Infrastructure
Player
Tangible assets
Regulatory
Management
Go-to-Market
L
Lead
Expand
A
Adapt
P
Pioneer
E
Leading fibre
uptake
Expand
new revenues
Achieve operational
excellence
Pioneer an
all-fibre business
INVESTOR DAY 2024
22
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Fast track to an all-fibre future
23
24
What does the future hold for data demand?
• We forecast solid growth: average ~1TB by 2029
• Underpinned by broadcast TV switch-over to streaming
• Live sports streaming, 4K and AI would boost growth again
• Only fibre can meet future capacity and reliability needs
• Fixed wireless has constraints and is unlikely to scale
• Wi -Fi 7 removes the in-home handbrake, enabling multi-gig
broadband speeds
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Kurt Rodgers
Network Strategy Manager
25
INVESTOR DAY 2024
30% per annum data growth over last decade
•Customers are using 13x more
data today than a decade ago
•636GB monthly usage on fibre
•17% using >1TB per month
•Forecast 14% per annum growth
over next decade
•Expect ~1TB average monthly
usage on fibre by 2029
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jul-14Jul-15Jul-16Jul-17Jul-18Jul-19Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jul-23Jul-24
Average Monthly Data Usage (GB)
FibreCopperCombined
604GB
in 2024
44GB
in 2014
Source: Chorus Data
26
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Data usage by speed tier on our network
•Chorus offers different plans to meet customer
needs
•Entry level 50Mbps meets low data needs
•High data users are choosing higher speed
plans:
•36% of Hyperfibre customers use >2TB
•46% of Fibre Max customers use >1TB
•53% of 300Mbps customers use >500GB
Source: Chorus Data
27
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Audiences are moving online
•Global video sharing platforms have the
highest daily reach (64%) and viewing minutes
(92 per day)
•Subscription video on demand (SVOD) is
next highest with 56% reach and 89
minutes/day
•Linear TV is declining but still has 47% reach
and 87 minutes/day
•Broadcaster video on demand (BVOD) is
fastest growing with 35% reach and 39
minutes/day
28
INVESTOR DAY 2024
The transition to streaming TV hasn’t finished
•Growth in data usage has tracked the shift from linear to streaming TV
•Older generations are still shifting to streaming
•Broadcaster video on demand is more popular with older viewers
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
15-3940-5960+
Daily Audience
Linear TVStreaming TV
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
15-2930-3940-4950-5960+
BVOD Daily Audience
Source: NZ On Air, 2024; Chorus Data
Source: NZ On Air, 2024
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2014201620182020202120232024
Fibre Data Usage (GB)
TV Vieiwing (Minutes/Person/Day)
Linear TVStreaming TVFibre Data Usage
29
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Terrestrial TV switch-off will boost low data households
Video on Demand has very
high growth amongst 60+
25% YoY growth in streaming
volume on TVNZ+ platform
Daily Audience over time
All New Zealanders 60+
Source: TVNZ Annual Report 2024
Source: NZ On Air, 2024
60+ age group watch over 3.5
hours of TV per person per day
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Monthly Data Usage (GB)
Number of TV hours per household per day
Source: Chorus Model
Live Sports, 4K and AI add to data usage and higher peaks
30
INVESTOR DAY 2024
•Live Sports streaming taking off in
Europe and US
•Amazon and Netflix are innovating
in the sports streaming market
•Sky rolling out hybrid Box and Pod
1
•7% increase in SkySportNow
customers
1
•Sky adding 4K next year
2
•RWC 2027 in Australia at peak time
•Game streaming growing at
12%pa
3
globally
•Emerging AI demand for bandwidth
Sources:
(1)Sky Annual Report
(2)Sky website
(3)Grand View Research
4k effect on data demand
—Data usage (GB)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Monthly fibre
data usage
today
All streaming
in 4K
All TV
streamed
in 4k
Source: Chorus Model
31
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Broadband is getting peakier. Fibre has the capacity
Netflix Live
Fortnite
Normal Peak
•Netflix Live sports streaming
•Fortnite Game Download
32
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Fibre is a bullet train. FWA is a rollercoaster
Fibre delivers a consistent speed experience,
at any location and at any time of day
Fixed wireless performance is unpredictable,
it varies by location and time of day
MBNZ Report - Data from Spark’s 5G Fixed Wireless plan
33
INVESTOR DAY 2024
•Wi -Fi 7 provides a huge speed uplift:
•Wi -Fi 5 to 6 = ~40%
•Wi -Fi 6 to 7 = ~400% uplift
•Wi -Fi 7 supports 2x more devices than
Wi -Fi 6
•Wi -Fi 7 devices are coming to market
quickly and prices are dropping
•Wi -Fi 7 now offered with Hyperfibre
Wi-Fi 7 opens in-home networks up for even more growth
Wi-Fi 7
Wi-Fi 6
Wi-Fi 5
+400%
+40%
Source: Chorus Lab Testing
34
Driving fibre uptake to 80% by 2030
• Fibre is the global gold standard for broadband technology
• 80% is aspirational but achievable (~240k connections over 6 years)
• NZ fixed wireless market is unique and already highly penetrated
• We’re a market challenger, moving from a one-size fits all approach
• Acquisition is our primary focus. We’re growing our retention capability
• Winning customer moments that matter are key to growth
• The regulator is playing a greater role in ensuring marketing
transparency across broadband technologies
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Elaine Campbell
Executive General Manager,
Access Value Stream
Our road to 80% uptake
Promoting the superiority of fibre across all channels
Maximise
fibre
uptake
Develop
propositions
for under-
penetrated
segments
Win in
customer
moments that
matter
35
36
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Moving from 72% to 80% uptake requires ~240k connections
Any new build
must reach
80% uptake
120
8
20
90
240
New property
Fibre frontier
Copper to fibre
Growth & Winback
FY30 con. target
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Net Connection Growth FY25-FY30
~130k
New build
~110k
Premises already passed
~180k
Under-penetrated
segments
~220k
Fixed wireless
and HFC
~110k
UFB2/2+
FY25 opportunity pools
(overlapping)
~220k
Inactive ONTs
33k users
per month
speed test
Maximising
acquisition on
our website
14k users
per month
broadband
checker
1.7M users
each year
chorus.co.nz
Path to 240k connections
37
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Under-penetrated segments is a focus to drive uptake
Target:
Severe/material hardship and very low-income households
Proof of Concept opportunity size:
~7k inactive ONTs
~180k
premises
~10k
Holiday homes
~60k
Businesses
~50k
Large MDUs
~30k
retirement
villages
~30k digitally
excluded
households
Digital equity
proof of
concept
Priority segments
Other segments
38
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Moving from one size fits all to tailor offers for RSPs
10%
15%
75%
Chorus Fibre Market Share
Pure
RSPs
Bundlers
MNO's
~580k power
customers
~450k power
customers
~940k
customers
~430k fibre
customers
~340k fibre
customers
~245k fibre
customers
Consumer incentives
Home Fibre
Starter
Home Fibre 300Home Fibre 920Hyperfibre
New connection
(First connection or 12M+ non-connectivity)
$100$200$250$250
Upgrade
(From any plan lower)
-$100$100$200
Note: numbers are NZ wide
39
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Retention is important, we are growing our muscle
~57%
premises
reconnect
within 12
months
~9% premises
disconnect for
4+ weeks
12-month
premises
churn ~4%
Fibre Churn (Premises)
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sept-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
May-23
Jul-23
Sept-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-24
4-week churn12-month churn
40
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Delivering an excellent experience creates fibre advocates
Assure CX
8.5
Install CX
8.4
Intact CX
7.9
Basic fibre 9
Fibre 300 17
Max Fibre 38
4G FWA -17
5G FWA -14
Word of mouth reach
Positive: 4-6
Negative: 10+
88% preference
CX improvements over time (3M rolling)
NPS lead between fibre and total FWA (3M rolling)
Overall fibre
to 5G NPS
lead +35
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jun-23Aug-23Oct-23Dec-23Feb-24Apr-24Jun-24Aug-24
Fibre lead vs 4G FWAFibre lead vs 5G FWA
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
Jun-23Aug-23Oct-23Dec-23Feb-24Apr-24Jun-24Aug-24
Install CXIntact CXAssure CX
41
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Fibre is the gold standard and we’re making it better
From
50/10Mbps
to 80/40 or
100/20Mbps
From
300/100Mbps
to
500/100Mbps
In-home
trial
Fibre
Boost
2.0
Hyperfibre
Network setup
support
In-home
coverage
performance
checks
2G,4G, 8G
available with
25G lab-tested
Self-
installation of
HF ONTs
Investigating
introduction of
a low-speed
plan
42
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Fibre is the gold standard. Period.
43
Q and A
Insert picture and send
to back – see next slide
Time for a break
44
Mike Shirley
Executive General Manager,
Infrastructure Value Stream
45
Demand for digital infrastructure presents
strong growth opportunity for Chorus
• New structure brings dedicated resourcing and
prioritisation
• Growth opportunities in our core - Mobile Infrastructure,
Data Centre Connectivity, leveraging existing assets
• Our ambition over Horizon 2 is to grow total infrastructure
revenues from ~$155m to $180-$200m
• New property development likely to moderate back in
volume, but more competitive
• Exploring adjacent opportunities at scale
INVESTOR DAY 2024
New Zealand’s largest digital infrastructure ‘neutral host’
46
INVESTOR DAY 2024
NATIONAL REACH
~22,000km
TRANSPORT FIBRE
400Gbps
400GBPS CAPABLE DWDM
TRANSPORT NETWORK
51
POINTS OF
INTERCONNECT
EXTENSIVE
GEOGRAPHIC
DIVERSITY
62
MESH NODES
400Gbps CAPABLE
80
CORE NODES WITH
FULL DIVERSITY
ACCESS
~180,000km
ACCESS FIBRE
1-10Gbps
LAYER 2 ACCESS
PRODUCTS
DIVERSE POINT-TO-POINT
FIBRE ROUTES
EXTENSIVE ASSET BASE
~60,000km
NATIONWIDE DUCT
NETWORK
212,000
POLES
14,700
ROADSIDE CABINETS
~600
EXCHANGES
(4 EDGECENTRES)
~200,000+ km of total fibre
Connecting
~90
RETAIL SERVICE PROVIDERS
1.2m
HOMES AND BUSINESSES
2,700
MOBILE CELLSITES
2,000+
SMART LOCATIONS
47
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Demand for fibre and digital infrastructure continues to grow
NEW
FOCUS
AREAS
Mobile
Infrastructure
New PropertySmart Locations Data Centre
Connectivity
EdgeCentresNeura
Wireless IoT
Sub Sea
Chorus Infrastructure
Existing expertise and revenuesExploring adjacent opportunities
48
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Infrastructure revenue - overview
Potential path to $180m to
$200m annual infrastructure
revenue by 2030, with
incremental upside
opportunities.
~$155M
infrastructure
revenue
(annualised)
Note: Infrastructure revenue on this slide
includes revenue from various financial
reporting lines: fibre broadband, fibre
premium, field services, infrastructure and
value-added network services.
Access
Backhaul
Legacy
Colocation
Other
New property
49
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Mobile Infrastructure segment
Building on our strong
existing mobile backhaul
portfolio to grow revenue by:
• Connecting ~50% of cell sites today
and looking to maintain share as
market grows
• Helping tower companies connect
new macro cell sites
• Using our poles and fibre solutions
to enable 5G densification
• Developing potential industry
solution - Precision Timing
NZ mobile infill connectivity market
+60-70%
CAGR
Source: Chorus estimates
50
INVESTOR DAY 2024
New property
development
Annual pipeline
of new premises
supported
by ongoing
population growth
• Recession has slowed housing
growth and funding in wake of
post-COVID building boom
• Solid backbook of developments
and developer relationships
provides ongoing demand
• Focus on customer experience in
competitive market
Fibre connectivity
enabling smart
towns and cities
Smart
locations
• Connecting non-building CCTV,
digital billboard and traffic sites
• ~40% growth to 2,000+
connections over last two years
• High quality video needs drive
preference for fibre
51
INVESTOR DAY 2024
•Neura in-market offering IoT
asset management solutions
using long-range LoRaWAN
technology
• Enables near real-time
monitoring and management of
critical assets like w a t e r, public
lighting, power and waste
collection
• Ability to utilise Chorus pole
assets for lower cost deployment
• Proof of value trials underway
Exploring Option 1
IoT Solutions with Launch of
Neura
52
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Cloud migration & AI is driving exponential growth for
fibre connectivity
+10-15%
CAGR
NZ data centre connectivity
FY26FY25FY27FY28FY29
Source: Chorus estimates
Exploring Option 2
New Model to Scale
EdgeCentres
53
INVESTOR DAY 2024
• EdgeCentres established in 4
Chorus exchanges (Auckland;
Tauranga; Wellington,
Christchurch)
• Product solution leverages
additional co-location space
with copper network
retirement
• In discussion to develop
revenue sharing model with an
IT market participant
Current
Model
Proposed
Model
InfrastructureProductChannelCustomers
Chorus
Build
Partner
Channel
Partner
Enterprise
ISPChorus
54
INVESTOR DAY 2024
• Investigating opportunity with
DataGrid that includes national
and trans-Tasman connectivity
• Could unlock a key role for
Chorus in burgeoning data
centre ecosystem and leverage
lower South Island renewable
energy
• Builds on Chorus’ existing
network and plans for enhanced
national backhaul
• Exclusive MoU to test demand in
2025
Exploring Option 3
Unlocking Hyperscaler
Connectivity
Datagrid (founded by Hawaiki subsea cable founder Remi
Galasso) is developing a hyperscale data centre near
Invercargill. The facility is to enable an AI training cluster
powered by renewable energy, with domestic and
international connectivity via a new sub sea cable.
Ewen Powell
Chief Technology Officer
55
Maximising value from our future-proofed fibre network
• Fibre is a highly reliable and scalable network technology
• We’re focused on prudent and efficient asset management
• Growing bandwidth demand and regulatory requirements drive
ongoing capacity investment
• Increased demand (e.g. bandwidth, Hyperfibre) and asset lifecycle
to shape sustaining capex within $200m to $240m annual range
across Horizon 2
INVESTOR DAY 2024
56
INVESTOR DAY 2024
A highly reliable, scalable, future-proofed network
Operations
stack
Element manager
platform
Aggregation
~400 switches
Transport
~1,000 nodes
Suburban access
exchange
Splitter 1:16
(not powered)
~1.3m
Optical Network
Terminals
Assurance
(faults)
Provisioning
(connections)
IT capex
Handover
~1,300 OLT nodes
ONT
Element Mgr
Element Mgr
Element Mgr
Aggregation
switch
Aggregation
switch
Transport
equipment
Transport
equipment
RSP
network
Optical Line
Terminal
Transport
Equipment
(if needed)
Network capex
57
INVESTOR DAY 2024
•Connection growth, data growth, asset lifecycle
management, product and business improvements
•Regulatory regime drives data-driven decision-making
and 10-year asset management planning
•Expect sustaining capex to remain within $200m to
$240m range through Horizon 2
•copper spend relating to shared assets, roadworks
and poles will change across the period
•spend at top of range would reflect strong
customer demand (e.g. capacity, Hyperfibre
upgrades) and lifecycle replacement
Prudent and efficient asset management
Investment drivers
35
40
25
Annual sustaining capex (%)
network electronics
physical network
assets
IT
58
INVESTOR DAY 2024
•Capacity
•Peak bandwidth growth ~21% p.a.
•60% utilisation trigger, to stay within 90%
regulatory standard
•Lifecycle
•Equipment (5-10yrs); software (2yrs)
•Investment phased to smooth capital and
optimise field activity.
•Products and customer demand
•Multi-gigabit (Hyperfibre) requires
replacement ONT
•Technology roadmap to 25G PON
Network electronics
Investment drivers
59
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Physical network assets
Investment drivers
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0-56-1011-1516-2021-2526-3031+
Kilometres
Fibre cable age profile (years)*
Ducted cableAerial cableUnderground cable
*Excludes service leads
•Lifecycle
•Significant proportion of physical assets pre-date
UFB roll-out
•~8,000km shared legacy fibre 30+ years
•Replacement subject to asset performance
(574km planned through PQP2) and investment
optimised through timing and partnering
•General sustain spend and safety
•Seismic strengthening
•Poles, pits and manholes, high sites
•Third party infrastructure changes
•Roadworks, power network undergrounding
•Resilience (growth capex if new fibre route)
•~$57m in PQP2 for towns with 3,000+ customers
and diversified exchanges
60
INVESTOR DAY 2024
IT investment
Investment drivers
•Lifecycle management
•~50% of IT spend: enterprise, provisioning and
assurance systems
•strong focus on cyber security
•Process and product development or improvement
•~50% of IT spend on developing new products and
systems to support growth initiatives , customer
experience and business improvement opportunities
•90%+ of fibre processes with RSPs automated
•AI and machine learning used to optimise work-flow
and network service. Future opportunities emerging
as AI becomes embedded inmany SaaSsolutions.
Julian Kersey
Chief Corporate & Regulatory Officer
61
Regulatory outlook
•Workable outcomes for PQP2 provide certainty and stability
•New Zealand fibre compares well globally
•Regulatory simplification is needed over Horizon 2 with a focus
on:
•copper deregulation; and
•lighter touch fibre regulation.
•Consumer transparency is critical for fair competition
INVESTOR DAY 2024
62
INVESTOR DAY 2024
PQP2 outcomes provide certainty and stability
Opex
$790m
Capex
$1,140m
No change to
anchor
services
WACC
7.68%
Note: “adjusted” proposal for capex excludes
items where we pulled back our planned spend
(eg fibre frontier, hyperfibre)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Chorus
proposal
Draft
decision
Final
decision
Chorus
adjusted
proposal
Draft
decision
Final
decision
$m
Expenditure allowances
CAPEX
OPEX
63
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Fibre pricing and coverage compare well globally
Price for Fibre 1 gig (or equivalent) – Sept 2023
Price for Fibre 300 (or equivalent) – Sept 2023
Source: Broadband Coverage in Europe 2023, a study by Omdia and Point Topic for
the European Commission, with NZ data added
64
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Time to take stock
Existing framework reflects out of date market assumptions
Chorus: ~1.1m connections
(service some major centres – e.g.
Auckland, Wellington, Dunedin)
Local Fibre Companies
(LFCs):
~375k connections
(service some major centres – e.g.
Hamilton, Tauranga, Christchurch)
Fixed Wireless Networks:
~350k connections
(service all major centres)
Non-discrimination (treat RSPs equally)None
Business line restriction (cannot retail)None
Unbundling requirementNone
Revenue cap + Information
Disclosure
Information Disclosure onlyNone
Anchor products (CPI only price
increases on fibre voice, 100Mbps,
direct fibre)
None
Averaged urban/non-urban pricingNo restriction
Legacy TSO outside Specified Fibre
Areas
No TSO requirement
Legacy 10% ownership capNo restriction
TO DAY*
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
TSO variation for
deep rural assets
Copper dereg
review
Fibre input methodologies
review (tbc)
Fibre dereg review
(tbc)
Streamlined PQP3 process (if needed)
Working towards fit-for -purpose regulation in all reviews
*Calendar years
TSO obligation
is outdated
No case for
continued
regulation of
copper
Fibre market
very different
from 2018
Information
disclosure-
only
regulation is
better
Opportunity
now to
simplify rules
and save cost
Pathway to simplification by 2030
INVESTOR DAY 2024
65
TO DAY*
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Updated marketing
guidelines
Product disclosure
guidelines
Update industry
marketing codes
Billing and switching review
Commission reviews Telco
Disputes Resolution Scheme
Ongoing: Measuring Broadband New Zealand Reports; RSP customer experience reports
*Calendar years. Dependent on Commission timeline changes.
Enabling informed customer
decisions
Future Retail Service Quality programme TBD
Consistent shopping journey and
unbiased up-front info
More meaningful comparisons
between products
Shining a light on how different
broadband services perform
Consumer transparency opportunities
INVESTOR DAY 2024
66
Anna Mitchell
Executive General Manager,
Fibre Frontier Value Stream
67
Copper retirement and fibre expansion
•Accelerated copper retirement by 2030 is achievable
•Customer outcomes key to delivering on our
strategy
•Copper savings building over the coming years,
essential to staying FCF+
•Fibre Frontier build tracking well, with strong early
interest and uptake
•A strong economic case for fibre expansion for New
Zealand
INVESTOR DAY 2024
68
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Focusing on copper retirement by 2030
End-to-end copper retirement
Customer transition
Asset optimisation and reuse
Decommissioning and disposal
•Organisational alignment to optimise programme
delivery
•Prioritising encouraging and enabling customer
transition and migration
•Implementing data-driven tactical approaches using
forecast connections and network costs
133,000 copper connections remaining (31 Oct)
33,00016,000
84,000
69
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Pathway to copper retirement by 2030
FULL COPPER EXIT
TO DAY
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Exit of copper services in Chorus fibre areas
33k
Exit of copper services in LFC fibre areas
16k
Exit of complex, legacy copper equipment
(i.e. Customer Multi-Access Radio)
1.5k
COPPER DEREGULATION
Exit of legacy enterprise copper services
1k
Staged exit of rural copper services
Working towards customer migration outcomes across all Chorus interactions with end-users and RSPs
83k
CMAR-RELATED TSO VARIATION
70
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Rural telco market has changed significantly since CNU listed
Of 345k rural premises...
73%
have
mobile
coverage
68%
have
WISP
coverage
...100%
have
satellite
coverage
Commerce Commission Annual Monitoring Report 2023
(Aug 24), Starlink.
Rural copper consumers can now access terrestrial wireless
alternatives
Spent by govt on wireless in rural New Zealand since 2016
– not including the 5G spectrum allocation for extended
coverage
‘Residential Lite’ Starlink service launched earlier this year
Remaining Chorus copper connections not
subject to TSO
73%
$79pm
$270m
97%
71
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Reducing costs in line with declining customer numbers
•Average savings per cabinet ~$2,500p.a. (electricity and avoided
network maintenance)
•Over 1,500 cabinets closed to date
•Cumulative net savings of $50m from cabinet shutdown between FY25
and FY30
•100 exchanges in Chorus Fibre Areas with fewer than 50 connections
•Copper capex to continue to steadily decline to 2030
Cabinets remainingChorus Fibre AreasLFC Fibre AreasNon-Fibre Areas
5,1501,0006503,500
72
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Retirement of Customer Multi-Access Radio systems
Technology
surpassed by
modern
alternatives
Serving
~1,300
addresses
Fault rate 15x
higher than
fibre
Customer
numbers have
halved in past
two years
800+ sites
were used to
provide service
Costs
significantly
exceed
revenue
Nevis Country-set repeater station, South Island
73
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Demand for fibre outside current footprint is strong
10k premises due for completion mid-2025
First 10 builds are complete and over 1,000
addresses passed
Build currently underway in 25 areas across NZ
Over 3,000 expressions of interest – nearly 70% in
first 10 areas
Over 500 installs to date with more than 300
already live
40% connections to date from offnet addresses
74
INVESTOR DAY 2024
•NZIER and Deloitte reports
show significant socio-economic
benefits from high-capacity
broadband
•We’re encouraging government
to consider fibre as part of its
Infrastructure Priorities Pipeline
•Chorus would need to meet IRR
hurdles to invest in further
expansion
Exploring Option 4
Fibre Expansion
$17b+
Economic gains to
New Zealand
Halve the
digital divide
Fibre to
95% of Kiwis
A realistic goal for
our country
95%
$2.5-3b* cost
$17b
economic
benefit
$1.2b* cost
$10b economic
benefit
$500m* cost
$5b economic
benefit
90%
92%
*combined communal and connection cost
Drew Davies
Chief Operating Officer
75
A solid fibre business with clear upside in Horizon 2
•Enabling our Value Streams to drive growth and optimise
operations
•Immediate focus on streamlined go-to-market capability and
simplification
•Copper retirement to release $50m+ of annual direct copper
opex by 2030
•Exploring a number of portfolio asset optimisation opportunities
•Strong PQP2 MAR tailwinds and core RAB to grow to ~$5.2bn
through PQP2
•Capital management principles and policy driveinvestment
discipline and sustained dividend growth
INVESTOR DAY 2024
76
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Where we’re headed withour Operations focus
•EBITDA: $700m-$720m*
•Sustaining capex: $200m-$220m
•Gross capex: $400m-$440m
•Dividend*: 57.5cps unimputed
We’re getting future fit
FY25 guidance unchanged from what we have informed you previously
•Continually working withour RSP's on new incentives and products for fibre bundling,such as Fibre Boost
•For the Access Value Stream, we’re optimising ourGo -To -Marketprocesses to be more adaptive from
development to product launch
•For the Infrastructure Value Stream, we’re increasingthe depth of capabilities to support the new opportunities
•Overall Enterprise focus on improving cost efficiency via simplification and streamlining our operating model into
Horizon 2
*subject to no material adverse changes in circumstances or outlook
77
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Tight cost control keeps direct copper revenues and costs FCF positive
Copper cost outlook
•Copper capex, net of contributions, $15m (FY24) and declining as activity transitions to fibre
•Direct copper opex of ~$54m (FY24) steps down as copper customers migrate to other networks,
or to fibre with a lower costto serve
Direct copper
expenses*
FY24
$m
Outlook to 2030 copper retirement
Network maintenance27Reducing as customers migrate to alternative networks: includes
faults from the exchange and/or cabinet, through to customer
premises
IT10Step-change once customer numbers remove need for scale systems
Other network costs5$4m of exit costs in FY24; ongoing exit costs subject to pace of
copper retirement and copper recycling programme
Electricity12Steady decline as network equipment shuts down
TOTAL54
*Note: this summary excludes shared costs and potential property maintenance savings from property optimisation
78
INVESTOR DAY 2024
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
FY22FY23FY24FY25eFY26eFY27e
Cables: CNU areaCables: LFC areaDuct: LFC areaPoles: LFCarea
Cables: ruralPoles: ruralEstimate
$m
Accelerated copper depreciation rolls off rapidly
NPAT impact
reduces by
~$50m in FY26
79
INVESTOR DAY 2024
Optimising options for our asset portfolio
Our assetsOptimisation options
~600 exchanges•EdgeCentre co-location in emptied copper spaces
•Sale of non-RAB exchanges as copper removed
~1,100 high sites•Potential sale of primary sites to towercos
•Sale to customers or exit retired sites (e.g. CMAR)
130,000km copper cable•Recycle retired copper cable where economic
212,000 poles•Possible 5G mobile/IoT use
•Sale or exit in non-fibre areas
14,700 cabinets•Potential re-use for other urban telco/utility services,
or new innovations such as EV charging, distributed
energy
~60,000km duct•Potential re-use for other urban telco/utility services
80
INVESTOR DAY 2024
• ~4,000km of large copper cable
that is economic to recycle
• Trial to assess practicality and
economics of cable removal in
H2 FY25
• Expect ~3 to 7-year programme
Exploring Option 5
Asset Optimisation on
Copper Recovery
Estimated $30m-$50m net proceeds
opportunity for large copper cable recycling at
current prices
Land & Buildings:
Net Book Value $375m
UFB areaLFC area
Other areaHigh sites
81
INVESTOR DAY 2024
• Land and buildings NBV of
$375m (FY24)
• A review is underway of our
nationwide high sites portfolio
to assess potential options for
sale/disposal in FY26
• Chorus’ need for other non-RAB
land and buildings will reduce as
the copper network is retired
•~$20m of ‘high sites’ are located
across a mix of areas and are used
principally for remote network
connectivity and wireless co-location
(Note: this category includes a large number of low value
rural sites)
•A further ~$75m of land and buildings
assets are in LFC and other non-UFB
areas that may become surplus – unless
required as key fibre transport sites.
Exploring Option 6
Asset Optimisation on High
Sites and Property Sales
82
INVESTOR DAY 2024
MAR and RAB outlook provides certainty to 2028
•Expect final MAR (due next week) to be higher than draft, given final expenditure allowances and our
depreciation tilt
•Strong MAR tailwinds in PQP2: WACC 7.68%; ~$200m wash-up; ~$85m tax building block from 2028; CPI
wash-up in year 1; CIP ‘benefit’ deduction reduces ~$6m with refinancing
•We expect to add $10m-$20m opex p.a. (to be recovered via wash-up) as copper shuts down in CNU fibre areas
from end 2026
•Expect core RAB to grow from $4.77bn (Dec 2023) to ~$5.2bn through PQP2, subject to depreciation tilt
PQP2
allowances
2025202620272028
Opex*$189.6m$196.3m$200.7m$202.9m
Capex**$327.6m$290.6m$261.3m$260.0m
PQP2 MAR 2025202620272028
Draft MAR$908m$947.4m$983.1m$1,017.9m
* opex allowance excludes ~$20m p.a. of pass-through costs included in MAR
** capex allowance may increase subject to installation demand and any future incentive proposal
83
INVESTOR DAY 2024
A digital infrastructure business maximising long-term value and returns
Capital management principles and policy
Dividend policy: pay an ordinary dividend of 70% to 90% (on average, over time) of net cash flow from
operating activities less
sustaining capital expenditure
Capital allocation
underpinned by
free cash flow
from an essential
regulated
infrastructure
asset
Deliver a
sustainable
growing dividend,
at least in real
terms
Use balance sheet
to fund
discretionary
growth capex - up
to 4.75x
ND/EBITDA
Discretionary
growth capex
must deliver
greater value
than returning
funds to
shareholders
84
Q and A
Recap: Fast track to an all-fibre future
85
INVESTOR DAY 2024
New market
challenger
posture
supports
push for
80% uptake
Regulatory
settings on
fibre provide
clarity and
stability for
next 4 years
Focus on
leveraging our
infrastructure,
with new
market
adjacencies to
explore
Copper
retirement
provides
opportunities
for
efficiencies
We are
enabling
better futures
for Aotearoa
We’re
moving
quickly to
become an
all -fibre
business by
2030
86
Thanks for
joining us
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.