Infratil Independent Valuation Update - 31 December 2024
Infratil
As at 31 December 2024
Independent Valuation Update
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Overview
A number of Infratil's investments have independentvaluations completedas at31 December,withthoseresults summarised below.The balance of Infratil's independent
valuations have been previously disclosed.
Longroad, Galileo and Qscan below reflect the midpoint of the 31 December independent valuations. CDC’s key valuation methodologies and assumptions were presented
as part the NZX valuation announcement on 6 January 2025.
Key valuation methodologies and assumptions underpinning the remaining independent valuations are summarised on the followingpage and remain consistent with the 30
September 2024 valuations
1
.
The 31 December 2024 independent valuation of Infratil’s investment in Longroad shows a US$133 million decline in valuation overthe three months since the 30
September 2024 valuation. This implies that Infratil’s 37.01% share is now valued at US$1,133 million, down from US$1,265 million at the end of September 2024. The
decline in the valuation is largely attributable to an increase in discount rates (base rates) outweighing positive updates to operating forecasts and development /
construction progress.
The 31 December 2024 independent valuation of Infratil's investment in Galileo shows a €12 million increase in valuation overthe three months since the 30 September
2024 valuation. This implies that Infratil’s 38% share is now valued at between €125.6 million and €176.5 million (with a midpoint of €151.1 million), up from €113.8 million to
€164.9 million (with a midpoint of €139.4 million) at the end of September 2024. The increase in valuation is largely attributable to shareholder capital injected into the
business and a increase in the development stage of some projects in Galileo’s pipeline.
The 31 December 2024 independent valuation of Infratil’s investment in Qscan shows a A$47 million increase in valuation over thesix months since the 30 June 2024
valuation. This implies that Infratil’s 57.62% investment in Qscan is now valued at between A$416.2 million to A$454.9 million (with a midpoint of A$434.6 million), up from
A$358.2 million to A$423.3 million (with a midpoint of A$388.0 million) at the end of June 2024. The increase in valuation isdue to changes in discount rate assumptions.
Independent Valuation Update
Portfolio Companies (NZ$ Millions)30 September 202431 December 2024
Longroad Energy1,992.7
2,005.6
Galileo245.0278.3
Qscan Group436.5
479.5
1. Valuation methodologies and assumptions for 30 September 2024 included here: Infratil FY25 Interim Results Presentation (nzx.com)
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Primary valuation methodology: DCF using FCFF. Valuation
approach consists of:
–A top-down approach (aggregate enterprise cashflows, including
a terminal value); and
–Bottom-up valuation approach (DCF using FCFE for operating,
under-construction, and near-term development projects
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, and a
multiples approach for long-term development pipeline),
–Platform derived from the difference between top-down &
bottom-up valuations, less net debt.
Forecast period: Top down: 30Y, Bottom up: 40Y (2065)
Enterprise value: US$6,940m
Equity value
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: US$3,039m
Key valuation assumptions
Risk free rate: 4.9%
Asset beta: top down - 0.86
Cost of equity: 13.8% top-down (8.7% WACC), 9.4% operating
assets, 9.5% under construction, 10% near-term projects plus
additional milestone spreads, 16.5% long-term pipeline plus
milestone discounts
Terminal growth rate: 2.5% (top-down, year 30)
Near-term (3 years) development pipeline: 4,344MW
Long-term development pipeline (5 years): 24,112MW
Multiple for long-term development projects: US$150/kW
Platform value assessed around ~11% of total enterprise value
Longroad (37.0%) – US$1,133m (NZ$2,006m)
Galileo (38%) – €151.1m (NZ$278.3m)
Primary valuation methodology: Transaction multiples for more
advanced projects and cost for entry-stage projects
Equity value: €397.5m
Key valuation assumptions
Risk free rate: n/a (DCF methodology not adopted)
Asset beta: n/a (DCF methodology not adopted)
Multiples for development projects that are ‘ready to build’ range
from €50-400k/MW depending on country and technology type (i.e.
solar, wind or standalone battery storage)
The valuer assigns a discount (~10-95%) to the multiple that it
considers appropriate as the project moves towards ‘ready to build’
stage. For projects that are early to mid-stage of the development
lifecycle, only a small percentage of the ‘ready to build’ value is
captured with the majority of value being recognised as projects get
close to ‘ready to build’ stage.
Platform premium of ~1% applied
Independent Valuation Summary
FX Rates: NZD/US: 0.5656 NZD/EUR: 0.5425 NZD/AUD: 0.9064 NZD/GBP: 0.4541
1. Longroad’s equity value adjusted for committed but uncalled capital included in the independent valuation
Qscan (57.6%) – A$434.6m (NZ$479.4m)
Primary valuation methodology: DCF using FCFE (with a cross
check to comparable companies and precedent transactions)
Forecast period: 10 years (2034)
Enterprise value: A$972.1m
Equity value: A$754.2m
Key valuation assumptions
Risk free rate: 4.00%
Asset beta: 0.775
Cost of equity: 13.2%
Terminal growth rate: 3.5%
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.