Infratil Newsletter – March 2025
Infratil Limited 5 Market Lane, PO Box 320, Wellington, New Zealand Tel +64-4-473 3663 www.infratil.com
14 March 2025
Infratil Newsletter - March 2025
The first quarter of the new calendar year has been marked by uncertainty and volatility
across global markets. In recent weeks, equity markets have experienced heightened
fluctuations, driven by escalating trade tensions and the introduction of new tariffs.
These developments have raised investor concerns about inflation and economic
slowdown, leading to significant declines in most major indices. Additionally, investors
are closely monitoring policy changes and technological advancements.
Our share price has not been immune to the sell-offs impacting global markets. We
also acknowledge that some of the recent share price weakness may reflect broader
industry uncertainty around key areas of our portfolio - New Zealand’s economic
outlook (One NZ), hyperscale demand for AI deployments (CDC), and US renewables
(Longroad Energy).
However, in times of heightened uncertainty, quality becomes an important
differentiator. Infratil’s strategy has always been built on backing high-quality assets,
great management teams who are invested in their businesses, and structural
tailwinds that drive sustainable, long-term growth.
While markets can fluctuate in the short-term, our focus remains on the core themes
underpinning our investment strategy and careful, patient capital allocation. The AI
revolution, for example, presents a transformational opportunity - particularly in digital
infrastructure – and is still in its early stages.
We recognise the share price discount to net asset value has grown and reiterate that
the board and management are focused on activities that will help to reduce that gap.
Despite the current share price our 10-year shareholder return remains strong at
17.4%, against our rolling 10-year target of between 11-15% per annum. Our
target
return acknowledges that “company performance varies from year to year, for reasons
to do with the company and reasons in the market as a whole. To reduce the effects
of this “noise”, we set our targets for 10-year periods”.
Shareholders may have noticed recent share purchases by directors and senior
management - including the CEO and CFO, as announced to the NZX - demonstrating
their confidence in Infratil’s outlook.
One NZ
One NZ continues to perform in line with expectations, demonstrating resilience amid
the current economic challenges in New Zealand. With reduced overall exposure to
the government and enterprise sectors, One NZ is less affected by the downturn
compared to its competitors as it navigates a complex landscape of recession. It also
Infratil Limited 5 Market Lane, PO Box 320, Wellington, New Zealand Tel +64-4-473 3663 www.infratil.com
adjusted its cost base early and has looked to lift pricing where possible to mitigate
these impacts even in the face of ongoing discounting from competitors.
One NZ remains on track to meet the middle point of its FY2026 guidance of NZ$580
to $620 million, as announced in May 2024.
It continues to invest in bold moves such as the Satellite TXT service with Starlink to
drive competitive advantage. More than 300,000 New Zealanders can now experience
the benefits of One NZ Satellite TXT
as the initial service widens eligibility to more
devices with message delivery speeding up and are sending over 11,500 text
messages a day. With over 500 Starlink direct to mobile satellites now in space and
a launch plan to grow this significantly, the partner that One NZ has chosen will have
a multi-year advantage over other potential providers. Both businesses and
individuals are recognising the benefits of the coverage now provided, and realising
productivity and health and safety benefits.
CDC
We have received numerous investor inquiries regarding the outlook for data centre
operators, of course given our largest investment, CDC.
We recently announced that we exercised pre-emption rights to acquire an additional
1.58% stake in CDC for ~A$216 million, alongside Future Fund, which is acquiring
10.46%. Importantly, the transaction price of A$13.7 billion (100% equity) was set in
an auction process involving only third-parties, reinforcing the strong demand across
private markets for this sector and CDC. Based on the transaction price the implied
value of Infratil’s investment is A$6.6 billion, a 34% premium to the last independent
valuation of A$4.9 billion as at 31 December 2024. On settlement, which is conditional
on regulatory approvals, this investment increases Infratil’s holding to 49.75%,
reinforcing our confidence in CDC’s long-term growth and the powerful digital
infrastructure tailwinds supporting it. With this increased stake, Infratil gains additional
governance rights, and we look forward to working alongside Future Fund and CSC
to support CDC’s strategic direction and continued expansion.
Earlier this week, we held a briefing with institutional investors and CDC CEO and
Founder Greg Boorer. He reinforced key elements of CDC’s current and future
success and some insights into the current market:
• CDC stands out in the data centre industry by focusing on flexible, future-proof
solutions for customers. Unlike other providers who can impose limitations, CDC
designs its data centres to adapt to evolving technology.
• The industry is seeing an increase in the size and complexity of contracts, with
hyperscalers driving demand for large, multi-year agreements. However, this
growth introduces new risks, including supply chain challenges and the pressure
to meet tight deadlines.
• CDC has a strong track record with major hyperscalers, positioning it well in a
market where contract sizes and complexity are steadily increasing. While
demand from hyperscalers can fluctuate, CDC is fortunate to have established
relationships, contracts, and forward work programmes with all the major
hyperscalers, allowing it to effectively balance these variations in demand.
Infratil Limited 5 Market Lane, PO Box 320, Wellington, New Zealand Tel +64-4-473 3663 www.infratil.com
• As demand for data centres grows, CDC is expanding its capacity, with over
400MW under construction and a 1.6GW pipeline in development. Despite
increasing competition, CDC maintains a strong position by securing land, building
strong relationships with energy interconnection providers, and having seven data
centres currently under construction.
• CDC has also been a pioneer in cooling technology, having used an innovative
closed-loop cooling system to increase water efficiency across all data centres.
Having this existing infrastructure in place, including the reticulation of water
throughout its data centres, positions CDC well for the emerging needs of AI and
supercomputing workloads.
• With its strong customer base, operational history, and strategic focus, CDC is set
for continued growth, offering long-term, scalable solutions to meet the evolving
demands of the data centre market.
CDC continues to scale its platform with the launch of a new 150MW data centre
campus in Laverton, Melbourne. This expansion reinforces CDC’s role in providing
secure, reliable, and sustainable digital infrastructure to support government, research,
education, and technology sectors. When complete, the Laverton campus - alongside
CDC’s existing Brooklyn campus - will bring significant new data centre capacity to the
Victorian market.
Longroad Energy
Investor discussions have also centred on our investment in Longroad Energy in the
United States, given the new government there. To provide insight, we also recently
hosted a briefing for institutional investors with the Longroad Energy management
team, where key takeaways included:
• The expectation is that the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is unlikely to be fully
repealed due to enough bipartisan support for key elements that are important to
Longroad Energy, although they are likely to be rebranded and potentially reduced.
These key elements are tax credits for investment in solar and battery storage
projects, particularly using USA manufactured equipment.
• Reduced tax credits are expected to increase power purchase agreement (PPA)
prices for future projects, leaving project economics to remain broadly the same,
particularly as the demand for new generation increases and volatility and the
need for scale continues to make it harder for new players to enter.
• Longroad has adopted a strategy to grandfather projects under the current tax
regime, with projects through to 2027 now safe-harboured. This means those
projects should be able to proceed without significant disruption over the next two
years, while the IRA reforms proceed and bed down.
• The tax equity market (where external investors provide capital for renewable
projects in exchange for tax benefits, such as credits and depreciation, to reduce
their tax liability) has stabilised, and the PPA market remains resilient, with
customers prioritising power supply over just renewable energy.
• Longroad sets a 1.5GW per year growth target but only achieved half in 2024.
Delays were due to complexities in the interconnection process and issues with
PPA counterparties (e.g., state or city approvals).
Infratil Limited 5 Market Lane, PO Box 320, Wellington, New Zealand Tel +64-4-473 3663 www.infratil.com
• While timelines for approval for interconnection to transmission networks are
improving (3-5 years nationally, with California and Texas at the extremes),
Longroad’s diverse project pipeline (28GW through 2032) and secured
interconnections for 2025-2026 mitigate these challenges. Merger and acquisition
strategies are also being employed to fill gaps in the pipeline.
• Despite the delay, Longroad exceeded its targets to generate US$300 million in
net present value annually, as 2024 projects showed a doubling of unit economics,
aided by IRA incentives.
• The target operating company run rate EBITDAF (the 5-year average EBITDAF
once projects are operational and counted from when construction begins)
remains US$600 million by December 2027. Once Financial Close is reached, the
project is considered largely derisked, though there is often a delay (up to 24
months) before this is reflected in financial statements due to the timing of
construction.
• Longroad is well-funded through 2027 to meet its targeted U$2 billion in capex
annually, US$1.7 billion of which is covered by project-level financing.
Longroad Energy also recently finalised a long-term Power Purchase Agreement with
Meta for the entire output of its largest solar project to date, the 300MWac (400MWdc)
1000 Mile solar project in Yoakum County, Texas. Longroad and Meta have now
worked together on more than 1.3GW of projects.
Longroad has successfully developed six wind and solar projects in Texas, but 1000
Mile is the first project that Longroad has developed within Texas’s Southwest Power
Pool footprint. The project is expected to achieve commercial operations in 2026.
Updates across the rest of the portfolio
Digital
Kao Data has announced
the construction of KLON-03 - a new, 17.6MW high
performance data centre located at its Harlow campus. KLON-03 will be engineered
to enable hybrid-cooling, allowing users to deploy direct-to-chip liquid cooling
infrastructure alongside more traditional air- cooled servers within the same
Technology Suite.
Renewables
Gurīn Energy achieved a major milestone with the completion of its first operational
project - the 75MW Palauig Solar Power Plant in the Philippines. Located in the
municipality of Palauig, Zambales Province, the 80-hectare Palauig Solar Power Plant
has installed 136,363 of the latest ground-mounted, energy-efficient solar photovoltaic
panels. This marks an exciting step forward in delivering clean, renewable energy to
the region.
Gurīn also continues to progress Project Vanda, its US$2.5 billion project to deliver
non-intermittent renewables to Singapore. Having received a conditional licence from
Singapore’s Energy Market and signed a panel procurement framework, work is now
progressing to undertake the subsea survey and undertake an Engineering,
Procurement, and Construction tender.
Infratil Limited 5 Market Lane, PO Box 320, Wellington, New Zealand Tel +64-4-473 3663 www.infratil.com
Finally, Gurīn continues the development of its 500MW Battery Energy Storage
System (BESS) project in Japan. For its first phase, 240MW, the land has been
secured; in-principle grid connection approval has been received; Contractor selection
is underway; and financing discussions have begun.
Galileo continues to progress its development pipeline which stood at 13.5GW of
dedicated projects at the end of the last quarter. Galileo now has ‘in-country’ origination
capability in Italy, Germany, Poland, Sweden, UK, Ireland and France. Most recently
Galileo expanded its renewable energy footprint in Europe with the acquisition of
Quénéa’s development business in France.
Healthcare
Bay Radiology’s new flagship clinic is now fully open, bringing world-class medical
imaging services to the Bay of Plenty. This purpose-built, 3,000-square-metre facility
is the largest medical imaging clinic in New Zealand, offering a full suite of diagnostic
services under one roof.
This is another great milestone for RHCNZ Medical Imaging and Bay Radiology as
they continue to enhance healthcare access and outcomes across New Zealand.
It was all hands-on deck at Qscan responding to the recent tropical cyclone that
passed through south east Queensland and northern NSW. Significant preparation
was undertaken in the days leading up to the cyclone and immediately after the event,
with staff working around the clock to reopen the clinics. Four clinics were closed on
the first day of trading after the cyclone; three of those clinics opened the next day and
the fourth clinic was another two days, with residual flooding in the surrounding area
limiting access. No staff or patients were injured, and at the time of writing, no
permanent damage was sustained.
RetireAustralia was also impacted by access and, to a lesser degree, power outages
(backup generators were deployed). The team was well prepared and there were no
impacts to the health and safety of staff or residents.
We appreciate the dedication of our local teams, who prioritised the safety of staff,
patients, and residents while working tirelessly to reopen clinics and safeguard our
villages.
Airports
Following the announcement to invest $500 million in infrastructure over the next five
years, Wellington Airport has pushed the go button on a $20 million upgrade of retail
and hospitality sites, including a new multi-level bar and duty-free provider.
A new two-storey bar and café will be built in the centre of the terminal above the
current Blue Lady outlet, offering expansive views across the runway and Lyall Bay.
This is expected to be open in the second half of 2025.
The airport also has a new duty-free operator after signing a contract with international
provider LagardereAWPL following a competitive tender process late last year.
Other news
Infratil Limited 5 Market Lane, PO Box 320, Wellington, New Zealand Tel +64-4-473 3663 www.infratil.com
Following the Contact Energy announcement that it had entered into a Scheme
Implementation Agreement to acquire 100% of Manawa Energy, the Commerce
Commission has published a Statement of Issues relating to the application. The
Statement of Issues outlines what the Commission considers to be the potential
competition issues with the acquisition following its initial investigation.
Contact and Manawa have each provided substantive supporting evidence to the
Commission as part of its ongoing assessment process and will continue to assist the
Commission in its understanding of the matters noted in the Statement of Issues.
The Commission is currently scheduled to make a decision on the application by 31
March 2025.
We appreciate the continued support of our investors as we navigate an evolving
market environment and pursue opportunities to drive long-term value. Your
engagement and insights are invaluable, and we look forward to keeping you updated
on our progress.
With strong momentum across the portfolio and exciting developments ahead, 2025
is shaping up to be another significant year for Infratil. We look forward to continuing
to engage with you and sharing more on the opportunities that lie ahead.
For additional updates, please follow Infratil on LinkedIn
.
Enquiries should be directed to:
Mark Flesher
Investor Relations
Phone: +64 4 473 3663
Email: mark.flesher@infratil.com
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.