Fonterra Shareholders' Fund logo

Global Dairy Update August 2025

Operational Update29 August 2025FSFConsumer Staples

• Fonterra lifts FY25 Forecast Farmgate Milk Price and narrows
FY26 range.

1

Global Dairy

UPDATE

• New Zealand and US monthly production

increased. EU and Australia monthly

production decreased.

• US monthly exports increased.

New Zealand, Australia and EU monthly

exports decreased.

• Asia, China, Latin America and

Middle East & Africa monthly

imports increased.

• Fonterra’s New Zealand milk collections for

July were 20.8 million kgMS, 1.0% above July

last season. Season-to-date collections are

37.5 million kgMS, 7.0% above last season.

• Fonterra’s Australia collections in July were

5.5 million kgMS, 0.9% above July last season.

• Fonterra agrees sale of Consumer business to Lactalis.

Key Dates

25 September 2025

FY25 Annual Results Announcement

11 December 2025

Fonterra Co-operative Group

Annual Meeting

15 December 2025

Fonterra Shareholders' Fund

Annual Meeting

AUGUST 2025

%%%
%%%%

%

Change for July 2025

compared to July 2024

Change for July 2025

compared July 2024

Change for June 2025

compared to June 2024

Change for June 2025

compared to June 2024

Change for the 12 months

to July 2025

Change for the 12 months

to July 2025

Change for the 12 months

to June 2025

Change for the 12 months

to June 2025

3.55.20.9

0.70.40.9

0.3

2.6

2

OUR MARKETS

Global Production

New Zealand and US

monthly production

increased. EU and

Australia monthly

production decreased

New Zealand milk

production increased 0.9%

in July compared to the same

period the year prior.

The increase was mainly due to

favourable on farm conditions,

as limited rainfall allowed for

better grazing conditions.

Despite soil moisture being

near capacity, the drier weather

slowed pasture growth in

some North Island regions,

prompting increased use of

supplement feed.

New Zealand milk production

for the 12 months to July was

up 2.6% on the previous

comparable period.

Fonterra New Zealand

collections are reported for July,

see page 5 for details.

Australia milk production

decreased 5.2% in June

compared to the same period

the year prior.

The decrease was mainly due to

lower volumes in Western and

Eastern Victoria and Tasmania,

with poor pasture conditions

from dry weather, and higher

feed costs limiting production.

Australia milk production for

the 12 months to June was

0.7% down on the previous

comparable period.

Fonterra collections in Australia

are reported for July, see page 5

for details.

EU milk production¹

decreased 0.3% in June

compared to the same period

the year prior.

The decrease was mainly due to

lower production in Germany,

Italy and Belgium, partially

offset by higher production in

Ireland and Denmark.

Irish milk collections for June

were the highest for the month

in the last 50 years of data, as

pasture growth tracked well

above the 10-year average.

EU milk production for

the 12 months to June was

down 0.4% on the previous

comparable period.

US milk production

increased 3.5% in July

compared to the same period

the year prior.

The increase was mainly due

to higher production in Idaho,

Texas and Kansas due to larger

herd sizes and improved yields.

The three states combined

accounted for a 119,000 head

increase on the previous

comparable period, accounting

for 75% of the total herd

size increase.

California milk production

increased 3.8% in July

compared to 2024, with yields

3.6% higher than the same

period last year.

US milk production for the

12 months to July increased

0.9% on the previous

comparable period.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

1 Excludes UK.

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

Global Exports

US monthly exports

increased. New Zealand,

EU and Australia monthly

exports decreased

New Zealand dairy exports

decreased 0.4%, or 1,151 MT,

in July compared to the same

period the year prior.

The decrease was mainly due

to lower export volumes of

SMP and cheese to China, with

volumes down 15% and 29%,

respectively, compared to July

last year.

Exports for the 12 months

to July were down 0.1%, or

4,792 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

The decrease was mainly due

to lower export volumes of

WMP and SMP, partially offset

by higher export volumes

of cheese.

EU dairy exports¹ decreased

2.7%, or 15,854 MT, in June

compared to the same period

the year prior.

The decrease was mainly due

to lower export volumes of

fluid milk products by Germany

and the Netherlands, partially

offset by higher export volumes

of SMP.

Exports for the 12 months

to June were up 0.8%, or

50,796 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

The increase was mainly due to

higher export volumes of whey

powder from the Netherlands.

US dairy exports increased

16 .0%, or 37,532 MT, in June

compared to the same period

the year prior.

The increase was mainly due

to higher export volumes of

cheese and whey products,

with shipments to key markets

including China, Japan, Korea

and Mexico receiving more

than 10% higher volume than

June last year, possibly in part

due to the weaker US dollar.

Exports for the 12 months

to June were up 2.4%, or

66,745MT, on the previous

comparable period.

The increase was mainly due

higher volumes of cheese

exports, partially offset by

lower export volumes of SMP.

Australia dairy exports

decreased 13.3%, or 8,270 MT,

in June compared to the same

period the year prior.

The decrease was mainly due to

lower export volumes of cheese

and whey powder, partially

offset by higher export volumes

of fluid milk products.

Exports for the 12 months

to June were down 0.6%, or

4,034MT, on the previous

comparable period.

The decrease was mainly due

to lower exports of fluid milk

products and whey powder,

partially offset by higher export

volumes of cheese.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

%%%

%%

%

%

Change for July 2025

compared to July 2024

Change for June 2025

compared to June 2024

Change for June 2025

compared to June 2024

Change for June 2025

compared to June 2024

Change for the 12 months

to June 2025

Change for the 12 months

to June 2025

Change for the 12 months

to July 2025

Change for the 12 months

to June 2025

16.0

0.6

0.4

0.8

2.4

13.3

2.7

0.1

%

1 Excludes UK.

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

%

OUR MARKETS

Global Imports

Asia, China,

Latin America and Middle

East & Africa monthly

imports increased

Latin America dairy

import volumes¹ increased

12.0%, or 25,984 MT, in June

compared to the same period

the year prior.

The increase was mainly due to

higher import volumes of SMP

and cheese by Mexico, partially

offset by lower import volumes

of fluid milk products by the

Dominican Republic.

Imports for the 12 months

to June were up 6.5%, or

166,962 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

The increase was mainly due

to higher import volumes of

SMP and cheese by Mexico and

Brazil partially offset by lower

import volumes of AMF and

whey powder by Mexico.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

increased 5.5%, or 25,552 MT,

in June compared to the same

period the year prior.

The increase was mainly due to

higher import volumes of SMP

by Malaysia, cheese by Japan

and South Korea, and fluid milk

products by Vietnam.

Imports for the 12 months

to June were up 5.6%, or

288,103 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

The increase was mainly due

to higher import volumes

of fluid milk products by the

Philippines and Vietnam.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

increased 1.8%, or 8,744 MT,

in June compared to the same

period the year prior.

The increase was mainly due to

higher import volumes of SMP

by the United Arab Emirates

and Saudi Arabia.

Imports for the 12 months

to June were down 4.0%, or

242,278 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

The decrease was mainly due to

lower import volumes of fluid

milk products by the United

Arab Emirates and Oman, and

WMP by Algeria and the United

Arab Emirates.

China dairy import

volumes increased by 6.8%,

or 16,802 MT, in July compared

to the same period the

year prior.

The increase was mainly due

to higher import volumes of

whey powder from the US, and

fluid milk products, with more

than 85% originating from

New Zealand and Europe.

Imports for the 12 months

to July were up 3.2%, or

91,107 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

The increase was mainly due

to higher import volumes of

whey powder.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%%%%

%

Change for June 2025

compared to June 2024

Change for July 2025

compared to July 2024

Change for June 2025

compared to June 2024

Change for June 2025

compared to June 2024

Change for the 12 months

to June 2025

Change for the 12 months

to June 2025

Change for the 12 months

to June 2025

6.85.512.0

5.64.0

%

Change for the 12 months

to July 2025

3.2

1.8

6.5

%

To view a table that shows
detailed milk collections in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%%

%%

Season-to-date 1 July to 31 July

compared to prior season

Season-to-date 1 June to 31 July

compared to prior season

Season-to-date 1 June to 31 July

compared to prior season

Season-to-date 1 June to 31 July

compared to prior season

Change for July 2025

compared to July 2024

Change for July 2025

compared to July 2024

Change for July 2025

compared to July 2024

Change for July 2025

compared to July 2024

0.98.9

29.2

0.31.0

0.93.97.0

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY























5

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Milk Collections

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

New Zealand Milk Collections

Fonterra's Australia

collections

in July were

5.5 million kgMS, 0.9% above

July last season.

The increase was mainly due to

favourable weather conditions,

as rainfall across the country

improved pasture conditions

and supported growth.

Northern Victoria continued

strong production due to the

weather conditions. Pasture

conditions in Eastern Victoria

and Tasmania improved,

supported by seasonal rainfall,

although some lingering

drought areas remain in

Western Victoria.

North Island milk collections

in July were 18.9 million kgMS,

0.3% higher than last July.

The increase was mainly due to

favourable weather conditions.

Sunlight hours were above

average for most of the North

Island, and temperatures were

slightly above the historical

average across all regions.

Soil moisture was at capacity

for all parts of the North Island

except for some drier areas in

Hawkes Bay.

Season-to-date collections are

31. 9 million kgMS, 3.9% above

last season.

South Island milk collections

in July were 1.9 million kgMS,

8.9% higher than last July.

The increase was mainly due to

favourable weather conditions.

Sunlight levels were well above

average for most of the East

Coast, including Canterbury

and Otago, with temperatures

consistent with the historical

average. Soil moisture was

at capacity for most of the

South Island.

Season-to-date collections are

5.5 million kgMS, 29.2% above

last season.

Fonterra's New Zealand

collections for July were

20.8 million kgMS, 1.0% above

July last season.

The increase was mainly due to

favourable weather conditions

across the country, with above

average sunlight and soil

moisture near capacity across

most regions.

As is normal for this time of

the season, collections for July

represent less than 3% of the

full season forecast.

Season-to-date collections are

37.5 million kgMS, 7.0% above

last season.

%%

%%

Forecast Farmgate Milk Price

range for the 2024/25 season

Forecast Farmgate Milk Price

range for the 2025/26 season

NZD per kgMSNZD per kgMS

9.00-11.0010.10-10.20

Outlook for Fonterra in New Zealand

%
%

%

%%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

AUG  OCT  JAN 

MAY 

AUG 

NOV  JUN  MAR 







,

, 

,



.


.



.

.

.

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity prices and New Zealand

dollar trend

The USD consolidated its position against most other major

currencies as a relative calm developed following de-escalation

of the US Administration’s trade and tariff policy agenda,

even as expectations that the US Federal Reserve will reduce

interest rates in September gathered pace, supported by stable

consumer inflation and a weakening labour market. However,

the NZD side of the NZD/USD exchange rate equation

provided for deprecation as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand

lowered interest rates and signalled further monetary policy

accommodation is likely – the NZD/USD exchange rate

declined to near 58 US cents.

Fonterra GDT results at

trading event 386

19 August 2025:

The next trading event will be held on 2 September 2025. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

0.0

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

4,332

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

33.7

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 2,764/MT

2.3

SMP

USD 4,031/MT

0.5

WMP

USD 4,548/MT

0.6

CHEDDAR

USD 7,078/MT

0.0

AMF

USD 7,100/MT

0.9

BUTTER

33,722

MT

LATEST AUCTION

68,131

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
Our Performance

Fonterra lifts FY25

Forecast Farmgate

Milk Price and narrows

FY26 range

Fonterra has increased the

2024/25 season forecast

Farmgate Milk Price

from $10.00 per kgMS

to $10.15 per kgMS, with

the range narrowing from

$9.70 - $10.30 per kgMS to

$10.10 - $10.20 per kgMS.

CEO Miles Hurrell says

Fonterra began the season

with a wide forecast range

to account for potential

volatility in commodity prices

and exchange rates resulting

from geopolitical dynamics.

“However, Global Dairy

Trade prices have remained

stable, and when coupled

with our well contracted

sales book, we have been

able to increase our forecast

Farmgate Milk Price across

the season,” he says.

Fonterra will confirm

the final Farmgate Milk

Price for the 2024/25

season alongside its FY25

annual results released

in September.

Fonterra has also retained

the $10.00 per kgMS

forecast for the current

2025/26 season and

narrowed the range from

$8.00 - $11.00 per kgMS to

$9.00 - $11.00 per kgMS.

“Global Dairy Trade prices

continue to be strong,

supporting the $10.00 per

kgMS forecast midpoint

for the current season,”

Hurrell says.

“However, it’s still early in

the season and the risk of

volatility remains, which

is reflected in the wide

forecast range.”

Meanwhile, Fonterra has

lifted its 2024/25 forecast

range for certified organic

milk from $11.70 – $12.30

per kgMS to $12.30 – $12.40

per kgMS.

The final organic milk price

for FY25 is expected to be

a record high of $12.35 per

kgMS, however Fonterra

will also confirm that as

part of its annual results

next month.

Fonterra’s General

Manager for Organics,

Andrew Henderson, says the

Co-operative is on track for

a fifth consecutive year of

organic milk price increases.

“This lift for the 2024/25

season has largely been

driven by significant

demand increases in recent

months, with American

consumers in particular

prepared to pay a premium

price for grass-fed, organic

dairy from New Zealand,”

Henderson says.

Fonterra has also increased

the forecast range for its

2025/26 organic milk price

to $12.00 – $14.00 per

kgMS. The new midpoint is a

record $13.00 per kgMS, up

from the $12.30 per kgMS

announced in May this year.

Our Co-op
8

Fonterra agrees sale of

Consumer business to

Lactalis

Fonterra has agreed to

sell its Consumer and

associated businesses to

Lactalis for $4.22 billion,

subject to certain conditions,

including Fonterra farmer

shareholder approval.

The sale comprises Fonterra’s

global Consumer business

(excluding Greater China)

and Consumer brands; the

integrated Foodservice and

Ingredients businesses in

Oceania and Sri Lanka; and

the Middle East and Africa

Foodservice business.

The sale also includes

the Bega licences held

by Fonterra’s Australian

business, following the

resolution of a dispute with

Bega Cheese Ltd.

Lactalis will pay Fonterra

$375 million for the Bega

licences in addition to the

$3.845 billion base enterprise

value, bringing the total

proceeds for the sale to

$4.22 billion.

Fonterra is targeting a

tax-free capital return of

$2.00 per share following

completion of the sale.

As part of the agreement,

Fonterra will continue

to supply milk and other

products to the divested

businesses, meaning

New Zealand farmers’ milk

will still be found in iconic

dairy brands, including

Anchor™ and Mainland™.

Fonterra Chairman Peter

McBride says over the last

15 months, the Board has

thoroughly tested the terms

and value of both a trade

sale and initial public offering

(IPO) as divestment options.

“Following a highly

competitive sale process

with multiple interested

bidders, the Fonterra Board

is confident a sale to Lactalis

is the highest value option

for the Co-op, including over

the long-term,” he says.

Fonterra will now seek

farmer shareholder approval

to divest the businesses

at a Special Meeting to

be held in late October or

early November.

Alongside shareholder

approval, the divestment

is conditional on final

regulatory approvals

being received from the

Overseas Investment

Office in New Zealand, the

Foreign Investment Review

Board in Australia, as well

as relevant competition

regulators and foreign direct

investment regulators in

certain countries including

Kuwait, New Caledonia and

Saudi Arabia.

The divestment is also

conditional on separation

of the businesses from

Fonterra and no material

adverse change arising

before completion.

Subject to the satisfaction

of all conditions, the sale is

expected to be complete

in the first half of the 2026

calendar year.

Fonterra CEO Miles

Hurrell says the agreement

represents a great outcome

for the Co-op.

“As the world’s largest dairy

company, Lactalis has the

scale required to take these

brands and businesses to

the next level. Fonterra

farmers will continue to

benefit from their success,

with Lactalis to become

one of our most significant

Ingredients customers.

“At the same time, a

divestment of these

businesses will allow

Fonterra to deliver further

value for farmer shareholders

and New Zealand by focusing

on our world-leading

Ingredients and Foodservice

businesses, through which

we sell innovative products

to more than 100 countries

around the world, from

our home base here in

New Zealand.”

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL 

JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES

,















EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s













AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT 

MT s













AVERAGE

9


Supplementary Information

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to June; New Zealand and US to July.

NOTE: Data for EU, US and Australia to June; New Zealand to July.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa, Latin America to June; China to July.

SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.

10

Supplementary Information

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

J U LY

2025

J U LY


2024

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2025/26

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2024/25

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

20.82.61.0%37.535.07.0%

North Island18.918.90.3%31.930.83.9%

South Island1.91.78.9%5.54.329.2%

Australia5.55.50.9%5.55.50.9%

2025/26 season

forecast Farmgate

Milk Price (FGMP)

update

ANNOUNCEMENT

DATE

FORECAST

FGMP /

RANGE (NZD)

NZD/USD RATE AT

ANNOUNCEMENT

DATE

FORECAST

AVERAGE

CONVERSION

RATE FOR

2025/26

SEASON

FORECAST

FOREIGN

EXCHANGE

EXPOSURE

FOR 2025/26

SEASON

HEDGED (%)

FOREIGN

EXCHANGE

OPTION

COVER

REMAINING

IN HEDGED

AMOUNT (%)

21 August 2025$10.00 /

$9.00-$11.00

0.58210.588865%17%

29 May 2025$10.00 /

$8.00-$11.00

0.59680.595148%10%

As at the most recent update to the 2025/26 season forecast Farmgate Milk Price on 21 August 2025:

• Fonterra had hedged approximately 65% of the full year forecast USD cash flows related to the

2025/26 season Farmgate Milk Price.

• Of that 65%, approximately 17% was hedged with foreign exchange options which had not yet

expired or been exercised.

• If the remaining 35% of the forecast USD cash flows were to be hedged at the 21 August 2025 spot

rate of 0.5821, the average NZD/USD conversion rate for the 2025 season would be 0.5888.

• Also shown for information are the equivalent measures at the date of the previous forecast of the

2025/26 season Farmgate Milk Price on 29 May 2025.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR

JAN

OCT FEB

JUL

AUG

MAY

SEP NOV DEC JUN

,
,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT 

QUANTITY SOLD  MT 

11


Supplementary Information

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(19 AUGUST 2025)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2025)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

33,72268,131

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

1.1%1.2%

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

4,3324,332

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

9.9%13.3%

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

0.0%–

Fonterra GDT results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

12
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

Cultured Products

Fermented milks that are

prepared by using starter

cultures and controlled

fermentation including

yoghurt, yoghurt drinks, sour

cream, crème fraiche.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products,

except for Reference

Products, produced

by the New Zealand

Ingredients business.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.


Glossary

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate.

WPI

Whey Protein Isolate.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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