Global Dairy Update August 2025
• Fonterra lifts FY25 Forecast Farmgate Milk Price and narrows
FY26 range.
1
Global Dairy
UPDATE
• New Zealand and US monthly production
increased. EU and Australia monthly
production decreased.
• US monthly exports increased.
New Zealand, Australia and EU monthly
exports decreased.
• Asia, China, Latin America and
Middle East & Africa monthly
imports increased.
• Fonterra’s New Zealand milk collections for
July were 20.8 million kgMS, 1.0% above July
last season. Season-to-date collections are
37.5 million kgMS, 7.0% above last season.
• Fonterra’s Australia collections in July were
5.5 million kgMS, 0.9% above July last season.
• Fonterra agrees sale of Consumer business to Lactalis.
Key Dates
25 September 2025
FY25 Annual Results Announcement
11 December 2025
Fonterra Co-operative Group
Annual Meeting
15 December 2025
Fonterra Shareholders' Fund
Annual Meeting
AUGUST 2025
%%%
%%%%
%
Change for July 2025
compared to July 2024
Change for July 2025
compared July 2024
Change for June 2025
compared to June 2024
Change for June 2025
compared to June 2024
Change for the 12 months
to July 2025
Change for the 12 months
to July 2025
Change for the 12 months
to June 2025
Change for the 12 months
to June 2025
3.55.20.9
0.70.40.9
0.3
2.6
2
OUR MARKETS
Global Production
New Zealand and US
monthly production
increased. EU and
Australia monthly
production decreased
New Zealand milk
production increased 0.9%
in July compared to the same
period the year prior.
The increase was mainly due to
favourable on farm conditions,
as limited rainfall allowed for
better grazing conditions.
Despite soil moisture being
near capacity, the drier weather
slowed pasture growth in
some North Island regions,
prompting increased use of
supplement feed.
New Zealand milk production
for the 12 months to July was
up 2.6% on the previous
comparable period.
Fonterra New Zealand
collections are reported for July,
see page 5 for details.
Australia milk production
decreased 5.2% in June
compared to the same period
the year prior.
The decrease was mainly due to
lower volumes in Western and
Eastern Victoria and Tasmania,
with poor pasture conditions
from dry weather, and higher
feed costs limiting production.
Australia milk production for
the 12 months to June was
0.7% down on the previous
comparable period.
Fonterra collections in Australia
are reported for July, see page 5
for details.
EU milk production¹
decreased 0.3% in June
compared to the same period
the year prior.
The decrease was mainly due to
lower production in Germany,
Italy and Belgium, partially
offset by higher production in
Ireland and Denmark.
Irish milk collections for June
were the highest for the month
in the last 50 years of data, as
pasture growth tracked well
above the 10-year average.
EU milk production for
the 12 months to June was
down 0.4% on the previous
comparable period.
US milk production
increased 3.5% in July
compared to the same period
the year prior.
The increase was mainly due
to higher production in Idaho,
Texas and Kansas due to larger
herd sizes and improved yields.
The three states combined
accounted for a 119,000 head
increase on the previous
comparable period, accounting
for 75% of the total herd
size increase.
California milk production
increased 3.8% in July
compared to 2024, with yields
3.6% higher than the same
period last year.
US milk production for the
12 months to July increased
0.9% on the previous
comparable period.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in production –
1 Excludes UK.
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in exports –
3
OUR MARKETS
Global Exports
US monthly exports
increased. New Zealand,
EU and Australia monthly
exports decreased
New Zealand dairy exports
decreased 0.4%, or 1,151 MT,
in July compared to the same
period the year prior.
The decrease was mainly due
to lower export volumes of
SMP and cheese to China, with
volumes down 15% and 29%,
respectively, compared to July
last year.
Exports for the 12 months
to July were down 0.1%, or
4,792 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
The decrease was mainly due
to lower export volumes of
WMP and SMP, partially offset
by higher export volumes
of cheese.
EU dairy exports¹ decreased
2.7%, or 15,854 MT, in June
compared to the same period
the year prior.
The decrease was mainly due
to lower export volumes of
fluid milk products by Germany
and the Netherlands, partially
offset by higher export volumes
of SMP.
Exports for the 12 months
to June were up 0.8%, or
50,796 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
The increase was mainly due to
higher export volumes of whey
powder from the Netherlands.
US dairy exports increased
16 .0%, or 37,532 MT, in June
compared to the same period
the year prior.
The increase was mainly due
to higher export volumes of
cheese and whey products,
with shipments to key markets
including China, Japan, Korea
and Mexico receiving more
than 10% higher volume than
June last year, possibly in part
due to the weaker US dollar.
Exports for the 12 months
to June were up 2.4%, or
66,745MT, on the previous
comparable period.
The increase was mainly due
higher volumes of cheese
exports, partially offset by
lower export volumes of SMP.
Australia dairy exports
decreased 13.3%, or 8,270 MT,
in June compared to the same
period the year prior.
The decrease was mainly due to
lower export volumes of cheese
and whey powder, partially
offset by higher export volumes
of fluid milk products.
Exports for the 12 months
to June were down 0.6%, or
4,034MT, on the previous
comparable period.
The decrease was mainly due
to lower exports of fluid milk
products and whey powder,
partially offset by higher export
volumes of cheese.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
%%%
%%
%
%
Change for July 2025
compared to July 2024
Change for June 2025
compared to June 2024
Change for June 2025
compared to June 2024
Change for June 2025
compared to June 2024
Change for the 12 months
to June 2025
Change for the 12 months
to June 2025
Change for the 12 months
to July 2025
Change for the 12 months
to June 2025
16.0
0.6
0.4
0.8
2.4
13.3
2.7
0.1
%
1 Excludes UK.
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in imports –
4
%
OUR MARKETS
Global Imports
Asia, China,
Latin America and Middle
East & Africa monthly
imports increased
Latin America dairy
import volumes¹ increased
12.0%, or 25,984 MT, in June
compared to the same period
the year prior.
The increase was mainly due to
higher import volumes of SMP
and cheese by Mexico, partially
offset by lower import volumes
of fluid milk products by the
Dominican Republic.
Imports for the 12 months
to June were up 6.5%, or
166,962 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
The increase was mainly due
to higher import volumes of
SMP and cheese by Mexico and
Brazil partially offset by lower
import volumes of AMF and
whey powder by Mexico.
Asia (excluding China)
dairy import volumes¹
increased 5.5%, or 25,552 MT,
in June compared to the same
period the year prior.
The increase was mainly due to
higher import volumes of SMP
by Malaysia, cheese by Japan
and South Korea, and fluid milk
products by Vietnam.
Imports for the 12 months
to June were up 5.6%, or
288,103 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
The increase was mainly due
to higher import volumes
of fluid milk products by the
Philippines and Vietnam.
Middle East and Africa
dairy import volumes¹
increased 1.8%, or 8,744 MT,
in June compared to the same
period the year prior.
The increase was mainly due to
higher import volumes of SMP
by the United Arab Emirates
and Saudi Arabia.
Imports for the 12 months
to June were down 4.0%, or
242,278 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
The decrease was mainly due to
lower import volumes of fluid
milk products by the United
Arab Emirates and Oman, and
WMP by Algeria and the United
Arab Emirates.
China dairy import
volumes increased by 6.8%,
or 16,802 MT, in July compared
to the same period the
year prior.
The increase was mainly due
to higher import volumes of
whey powder from the US, and
fluid milk products, with more
than 85% originating from
New Zealand and Europe.
Imports for the 12 months
to July were up 3.2%, or
91,107 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
The increase was mainly due
to higher import volumes of
whey powder.
LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA
1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.
%%%%
%
Change for June 2025
compared to June 2024
Change for July 2025
compared to July 2024
Change for June 2025
compared to June 2024
Change for June 2025
compared to June 2024
Change for the 12 months
to June 2025
Change for the 12 months
to June 2025
Change for the 12 months
to June 2025
6.85.512.0
5.64.0
%
Change for the 12 months
to July 2025
3.2
1.8
6.5
%
To view a table that shows
detailed milk collections in New
Zealand and Australia compared
to the previous season –
%%
%%
Season-to-date 1 July to 31 July
compared to prior season
Season-to-date 1 June to 31 July
compared to prior season
Season-to-date 1 June to 31 July
compared to prior season
Season-to-date 1 June to 31 July
compared to prior season
Change for July 2025
compared to July 2024
Change for July 2025
compared to July 2024
Change for July 2025
compared to July 2024
Change for July 2025
compared to July 2024
0.98.9
29.2
0.31.0
0.93.97.0
VOLUME M LITRESDAY
JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
5
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Milk Collections
NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA
New Zealand Milk Collections
Fonterra's Australia
collections
in July were
5.5 million kgMS, 0.9% above
July last season.
The increase was mainly due to
favourable weather conditions,
as rainfall across the country
improved pasture conditions
and supported growth.
Northern Victoria continued
strong production due to the
weather conditions. Pasture
conditions in Eastern Victoria
and Tasmania improved,
supported by seasonal rainfall,
although some lingering
drought areas remain in
Western Victoria.
North Island milk collections
in July were 18.9 million kgMS,
0.3% higher than last July.
The increase was mainly due to
favourable weather conditions.
Sunlight hours were above
average for most of the North
Island, and temperatures were
slightly above the historical
average across all regions.
Soil moisture was at capacity
for all parts of the North Island
except for some drier areas in
Hawkes Bay.
Season-to-date collections are
31. 9 million kgMS, 3.9% above
last season.
South Island milk collections
in July were 1.9 million kgMS,
8.9% higher than last July.
The increase was mainly due to
favourable weather conditions.
Sunlight levels were well above
average for most of the East
Coast, including Canterbury
and Otago, with temperatures
consistent with the historical
average. Soil moisture was
at capacity for most of the
South Island.
Season-to-date collections are
5.5 million kgMS, 29.2% above
last season.
Fonterra's New Zealand
collections for July were
20.8 million kgMS, 1.0% above
July last season.
The increase was mainly due to
favourable weather conditions
across the country, with above
average sunlight and soil
moisture near capacity across
most regions.
As is normal for this time of
the season, collections for July
represent less than 3% of the
full season forecast.
Season-to-date collections are
37.5 million kgMS, 7.0% above
last season.
%%
%%
Forecast Farmgate Milk Price
range for the 2024/25 season
Forecast Farmgate Milk Price
range for the 2025/26 season
NZD per kgMSNZD per kgMS
9.00-11.0010.10-10.20
Outlook for Fonterra in New Zealand
%
%
%
%%
To view more information,
including a snapshot of the
rolling year-to-date results –
%
6
GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE
AUG
OCT JAN
MAY
AUG
NOV
JUN MAR
,
,
,
.
.
.
.
.
PRICE INDEX
NZD USD
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results
Fonterra GDT sales
by destination:
Dairy commodity prices and New Zealand
dollar trend
The USD consolidated its position against most other major
currencies as a relative calm developed following de-escalation
of the US Administration’s trade and tariff policy agenda,
even as expectations that the US Federal Reserve will reduce
interest rates in September gathered pace, supported by stable
consumer inflation and a weakening labour market. However,
the NZD side of the NZD/USD exchange rate equation
provided for deprecation as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
lowered interest rates and signalled further monetary policy
accommodation is likely – the NZD/USD exchange rate
declined to near 58 US cents.
Fonterra GDT results at
trading event 386
19 August 2025:
The next trading event will be held on 2 September 2025. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.
Change in Fonterra’s
weighted average product
price from previous event
0.0
Fonterra’s weighted
average product price
(USD/MT)
4,332
USD
Fonterra product quantity
sold on GDT
000’ MT
33.7
NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)
SOUTH EAST ASIA
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
OTHER
USD 2,764/MT
2.3
SMP
USD 4,031/MT
0.5
WMP
USD 4,548/MT
0.6
CHEDDAR
USD 7,078/MT
0.0
AMF
USD 7,100/MT
0.9
BUTTER
33,722
MT
LATEST AUCTION
68,131
MT
FINANCIAL
YEAR‑TO‑DATE
7
Our Performance
Fonterra lifts FY25
Forecast Farmgate
Milk Price and narrows
FY26 range
Fonterra has increased the
2024/25 season forecast
Farmgate Milk Price
from $10.00 per kgMS
to $10.15 per kgMS, with
the range narrowing from
$9.70 - $10.30 per kgMS to
$10.10 - $10.20 per kgMS.
CEO Miles Hurrell says
Fonterra began the season
with a wide forecast range
to account for potential
volatility in commodity prices
and exchange rates resulting
from geopolitical dynamics.
“However, Global Dairy
Trade prices have remained
stable, and when coupled
with our well contracted
sales book, we have been
able to increase our forecast
Farmgate Milk Price across
the season,” he says.
Fonterra will confirm
the final Farmgate Milk
Price for the 2024/25
season alongside its FY25
annual results released
in September.
Fonterra has also retained
the $10.00 per kgMS
forecast for the current
2025/26 season and
narrowed the range from
$8.00 - $11.00 per kgMS to
$9.00 - $11.00 per kgMS.
“Global Dairy Trade prices
continue to be strong,
supporting the $10.00 per
kgMS forecast midpoint
for the current season,”
Hurrell says.
“However, it’s still early in
the season and the risk of
volatility remains, which
is reflected in the wide
forecast range.”
Meanwhile, Fonterra has
lifted its 2024/25 forecast
range for certified organic
milk from $11.70 – $12.30
per kgMS to $12.30 – $12.40
per kgMS.
The final organic milk price
for FY25 is expected to be
a record high of $12.35 per
kgMS, however Fonterra
will also confirm that as
part of its annual results
next month.
Fonterra’s General
Manager for Organics,
Andrew Henderson, says the
Co-operative is on track for
a fifth consecutive year of
organic milk price increases.
“This lift for the 2024/25
season has largely been
driven by significant
demand increases in recent
months, with American
consumers in particular
prepared to pay a premium
price for grass-fed, organic
dairy from New Zealand,”
Henderson says.
Fonterra has also increased
the forecast range for its
2025/26 organic milk price
to $12.00 – $14.00 per
kgMS. The new midpoint is a
record $13.00 per kgMS, up
from the $12.30 per kgMS
announced in May this year.
Our Co-op
8
Fonterra agrees sale of
Consumer business to
Lactalis
Fonterra has agreed to
sell its Consumer and
associated businesses to
Lactalis for $4.22 billion,
subject to certain conditions,
including Fonterra farmer
shareholder approval.
The sale comprises Fonterra’s
global Consumer business
(excluding Greater China)
and Consumer brands; the
integrated Foodservice and
Ingredients businesses in
Oceania and Sri Lanka; and
the Middle East and Africa
Foodservice business.
The sale also includes
the Bega licences held
by Fonterra’s Australian
business, following the
resolution of a dispute with
Bega Cheese Ltd.
Lactalis will pay Fonterra
$375 million for the Bega
licences in addition to the
$3.845 billion base enterprise
value, bringing the total
proceeds for the sale to
$4.22 billion.
Fonterra is targeting a
tax-free capital return of
$2.00 per share following
completion of the sale.
As part of the agreement,
Fonterra will continue
to supply milk and other
products to the divested
businesses, meaning
New Zealand farmers’ milk
will still be found in iconic
dairy brands, including
Anchor™ and Mainland™.
Fonterra Chairman Peter
McBride says over the last
15 months, the Board has
thoroughly tested the terms
and value of both a trade
sale and initial public offering
(IPO) as divestment options.
“Following a highly
competitive sale process
with multiple interested
bidders, the Fonterra Board
is confident a sale to Lactalis
is the highest value option
for the Co-op, including over
the long-term,” he says.
Fonterra will now seek
farmer shareholder approval
to divest the businesses
at a Special Meeting to
be held in late October or
early November.
Alongside shareholder
approval, the divestment
is conditional on final
regulatory approvals
being received from the
Overseas Investment
Office in New Zealand, the
Foreign Investment Review
Board in Australia, as well
as relevant competition
regulators and foreign direct
investment regulators in
certain countries including
Kuwait, New Caledonia and
Saudi Arabia.
The divestment is also
conditional on separation
of the businesses from
Fonterra and no material
adverse change arising
before completion.
Subject to the satisfaction
of all conditions, the sale is
expected to be complete
in the first half of the 2026
calendar year.
Fonterra CEO Miles
Hurrell says the agreement
represents a great outcome
for the Co-op.
“As the world’s largest dairy
company, Lactalis has the
scale required to take these
brands and businesses to
the next level. Fonterra
farmers will continue to
benefit from their success,
with Lactalis to become
one of our most significant
Ingredients customers.
“At the same time, a
divestment of these
businesses will allow
Fonterra to deliver further
value for farmer shareholders
and New Zealand by focusing
on our world-leading
Ingredients and Foodservice
businesses, through which
we sell innovative products
to more than 100 countries
around the world, from
our home base here in
New Zealand.”
PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
DEC JUL
JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR
LIQUID MILK M LITRES
,
EXPORTS
AUSTRALIA
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY
MT s
AVERAGE
IMPORTS
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA
ASIACHINA
SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT
MT s
AVERAGE
9
Supplementary Information
Global Dairy Market
The charts on the right
illustrate the year-on-year
changes in imports, exports
and production for a range of
countries that are important
players in global dairy trade.
The absolute size of
the bars represents the
change in imports, exports
or production, relative
to the same period the
previous year.
Averages are shown where
data is complete for the
regions presented.
NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to June; New Zealand and US to July.
NOTE: Data for EU, US and Australia to June; New Zealand to July.
NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa, Latin America to June; China to July.
SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.
10
Supplementary Information
Fonterra milk
production
The table on the right
shows Fonterra milk solids
collected in New Zealand
and Australia compared
to the previous season.
MILK COLLECTION
(MILLION KGMS)
J U LY
2025
J U LY
2024
MONTHLY
CHANGE
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2025/26
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2024/25
SEASON-
TO-DATE
CHANGE
Total Fonterra
New Zealand
20.82.61.0%37.535.07.0%
North Island18.918.90.3%31.930.83.9%
South Island1.91.78.9%5.54.329.2%
Australia5.55.50.9%5.55.50.9%
2025/26 season
forecast Farmgate
Milk Price (FGMP)
update
ANNOUNCEMENT
DATE
FORECAST
FGMP /
RANGE (NZD)
NZD/USD RATE AT
ANNOUNCEMENT
DATE
FORECAST
AVERAGE
CONVERSION
RATE FOR
2025/26
SEASON
FORECAST
FOREIGN
EXCHANGE
EXPOSURE
FOR 2025/26
SEASON
HEDGED (%)
FOREIGN
EXCHANGE
OPTION
COVER
REMAINING
IN HEDGED
AMOUNT (%)
21 August 2025$10.00 /
$9.00-$11.00
0.58210.588865%17%
29 May 2025$10.00 /
$8.00-$11.00
0.59680.595148%10%
As at the most recent update to the 2025/26 season forecast Farmgate Milk Price on 21 August 2025:
• Fonterra had hedged approximately 65% of the full year forecast USD cash flows related to the
2025/26 season Farmgate Milk Price.
• Of that 65%, approximately 17% was hedged with foreign exchange options which had not yet
expired or been exercised.
• If the remaining 35% of the forecast USD cash flows were to be hedged at the 21 August 2025 spot
rate of 0.5821, the average NZD/USD conversion rate for the 2025 season would be 0.5888.
• Also shown for information are the equivalent measures at the date of the previous forecast of the
2025/26 season Farmgate Milk Price on 29 May 2025.
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR
MAR
JAN
OCT FEB
JUL
AUG
MAY
SEP NOV DEC JUN
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD MT
11
Supplementary Information
Fonterra GDT results
This table provides more
information on the latest
results, including a snapshot
of the year-to-date results.
LAST TRADING EVENT
(19 AUGUST 2025)
YEAR-TO-DATE
(FROM 1 AUGUST 2025)
Quantity Sold on GDT
(Winning MT)
33,72268,131
Change in Quantity Sold on GDT
over same period last year
1.1%1.2%
Weighted Average Product Price
(USD/MT)
4,3324,332
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price over same period
last year
9.9%13.3%
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price from previous event
0.0%–
Fonterra GDT results
This chart shows Fonterra
GDT prices and volumes over
the past 12 months.
12
AMF
Anhydrous Milk Fat.
BMP
Butter Milk Powder.
Cultured Products
Fermented milks that are
prepared by using starter
cultures and controlled
fermentation including
yoghurt, yoghurt drinks, sour
cream, crème fraiche.
DIRA
Dairy Industry Restructuring
Act 2001 (New Zealand).
Farmgate Milk Price
The price for milk supplied in
New Zealand to Fonterra by
farmer shareholders.
Fluid Products
The Fonterra grouping
of fluid milk products
(skim milk, whole milk
and cream – pasteurised
or UHT processed),
concentrated milk products
(evaporated milk and
sweetened condensed milk)
and yoghurt.
GDT
Global Dairy Trade, the
online provider of the twice
monthly global auctions of
dairy ingredients.
kgMS
Kilogram of milk solids, the
measure of the amount of
fat and protein in the milk
supplied to Fonterra.
MPC
Milk Protein Concentrate.
Non-Reference Products
All dairy products,
except for Reference
Products, produced
by the New Zealand
Ingredients business.
Reference Products
The dairy products used
in the calculation of the
Farmgate Milk Price, which
are currently WMP, SMP,
BMP, butter and AMF.
Glossary
Season
New Zealand: A period
of 12 months to 31 May
in each year.
Australia: A period of
12 months to 30 June
in each year.
SMP
Skim Milk Powder.
WMP
Whole Milk Powder.
WPC
Whey Protein Concentrate.
WPI
Whey Protein Isolate.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time
Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.
- FSF — Fonterra Shareholders' Fund: Global Dairy Update August 20252025-08-29
“• Fonterra lifts FY25 Forecast Farmgate Milk Price and narrows FY26 range. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • New Zealand and US monthly production increased. EU and Australia monthly production decreased. • US monthly exports increased. New Zealand, Australia and EU monthly exp…”
- FSF — Fonterra Shareholders' Fund: Global Dairy Update September 20252025-09-30
“• Fonterra reports continued strong performance in FY25 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • New Zealand, EU and US monthly production increased. Australia monthly production decreased • New Zealand and US monthly exports increased. Australia and EU monthly exports decreased • As…”
- FSF — Fonterra Shareholders' Fund: Global Dairy Update July 20252025-07-31
“• Fonterra Eltham boosts cheese production for rising demand 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • New Zealand and US monthly production increased. Australia and EU monthly production decreased. • New Zealand, EU, US and Australia monthly exports decreased. • Asia and Latin America…”