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Global Dairy Update September 2025

Operational Update30 September 2025FSFConsumer Staples

• Fonterra reports
continued strong

performance in FY25

1

Global Dairy

UPDATE

• New Zealand, EU and US monthly

production increased. Australia monthly

production decreased

• New Zealand and US monthly exports

increased. Australia and EU monthly

exports decreased

• Asia, Latin America and China monthly

imports increased. Middle East & Africa

monthly imports decreased

• Fonterra's New Zealand collections

for August were 99.9 million kgMS,

2.0% above August last season.

Season‑to‑date collections are

137.3 million kgMS, 3.2% above

last season

• Fonterra’s Australia collections in August

were 7.3 million kgMS, 3.5% above

August last season. Season‑to ‑date

collections are 12.8 million kgMS, 2.4%

above last season

• New UHT cream plant takes shape in Southland

Key Dates

30 October 2025

Fonterra Co‑operative Group

Special Meeting

11 December 2025

Fonterra Co‑operative Group

Annual Meeting

15 December 2025

Fonterra Shareholders' Fund Annual

Meeting

SEPTEMBER 2025

For further details,

visit our website –

Change for August 2025
compared to August 2024

Change for August 2025

compared to August 2024

Change for July 2025

compared to July 2024

Change for July 2025

compared to July 2024

Change for the 12 months

to August 2025

Change for the 12 months

to August 2025

Change for the 12 months

to July 2025

Change for the 12 months

to July 2025

3.31.8

1.10.21.2

0.5

2.0

4.0

2

OUR MARKETS

Global Production

New Zealand, EU

and US monthly

production increased.

Australia monthly

production decreased

New Zealand milk

production increased

1.8% in August compared

to the prior year.

The increase was mainly

due to favourable on‑farm

conditions, with soil

moisture at capacity

for most of the country.

Some regions had drier

and cooler weather

that reduced pasture

damage and supported

grazing conditions.

New Zealand milk

production for the

12 months to August was

up 2.0% on the previous

comparable period.

Fonterra New Zealand

collections are reported

for August, see page 5

for details.

Australia milk

production decreased

4.0% in July compared to

July the year prior.

The decrease was mainly

due to constrained feed

availability and input costs

circa 20% above July last

year. Meanwhile, the price

for cull cows have reached

its highest level since 2022.

Australia milk production

for the 12 months to

July was 1.1% down

on the previous

comparable period.

Fonterra collections in

Australia are reported

for August, see page 5

for details.

EU milk production1

increased 0.5% in July

compared to the same

period the year prior.

The increase was mainly

due to higher production

in Ireland and Poland,

along with a notable

increase from Hungary,

recording 15.9% higher

year‑on‑year collections.

The increase was partially

offset by lower volumes

in Belgium and Germany

as key European dairy

producing regions continue

to manage bluetongue

virus outbreaks.

EU milk production for

the 12 months to July was

down 0.2% on the previous

comparable period.

US milk production

increased 3.3% in August

compared to the same

period the year prior.

The increase was mainly

due to larger herd sizes and

higher yields. Production

increased year‑on‑year

for 19 of the 24 major

milk‑producing states, with

Kansas up 20% on August

last year.

The higher collections were

partially offset by lower

production in Washington,

which decreased 7.4%,

as the state's herd

size decreased 21,000

compared to last year.

US milk production for the

12 months to August was

1.2% up on the previous

comparable period.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

To view a chart that

illustrates year‑on‑year

changes in production –

1 Excludes UK.

%%%

%%%%

%

3
OUR MARKETS

Global Exports

New Zealand and

US monthly exports

increased. Australia

and EU monthly

exports decreased

New Zealand dairy

exports increased 17.7%,

or 263,555 MT, in August

compared to the same

period the year prior.

The increase was mainly

due to higher export

volumes of WMP, with

Indonesia increasing their

market share by 157% to

5,442 MT, second to China,

who imported 6,072 MT

of WMP.

Exports for the 12 months

to August were up 1.1%, or

39,706 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

The increase was mainly

due to higher exports of

MPC, MPI, and cheese,

partially offset by lower

export volumes of whey

and other powders.

EU dairy exports1

decreased 0.8%, or

5,050MT, in July compared

to the same period the

year prior.

The decrease was mainly

due to lower export

volumes of whey powder

from France and fluid

milk products from the

Netherlands and Germany,

partially offset by higher

export volumes of SMP.

Exports for the 12 months

to July were up 0.2%, or

9,884 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

The increase was mainly

due to higher export

volumes WPC and WPI

from Ireland.

US dairy exports

increased 8.6%, or

20,960MT, in July

compared to the same

period the year prior.

The increase was mainly

due to higher export

volumes of cheese, and

butter, partially offset by

lower export volumes

of SMP.

Exports for the 12 months

to July were up 2.4%, or

67,447MT, on the previous

comparable period.

The increase was mainly

due to strong growth

of cheese exports, and

butter, which is up 94%,

or 26,147 MT, for the

12‑months year‑on‑year.

The increase is partially

offset by lower export

volumes of SMP.

Australia dairy exports

decreased 2.8%, or

1,598 MT, in July compared

to the same period the

year prior.

The decrease was mainly

due to lower SMP exports,

with Malaysia, Vietnam

and Kuwait each reducing

their volumes by more than

50%. The decrease was

partially offset by higher

export volumes of fluid

milk products.

Exports for the 12 months

to July were down 1.8 %, or

12,598 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

The decrease was mainly

due to lower volumes of

fluid milk products and

whey powder, partially

offset by higher export

volumes of cheese.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

%%%

%%

To view a chart that

illustrates year‑on‑year

changes in exports –

%

%

Change for August 2025

compared to August 2024

Change for July 2025

compared to July 2024

Change for July 2025

compared to July 2024

Change for July 2025

compared to July 2024

Change for the 12 months

to July 2025

Change for the 12 months

to July 2025

Change for the 12 months

to August 2025

Change for the 12 months

to July 2025

8.6

1.8

17.7

0.2

2.4

2.8

0.8

1.1

%

1 Excludes UK.

4
OUR MARKETS

Global Imports

Asia, Latin America and

China monthly imports

increased. Middle

East & Africa monthly

imports decreased

Latin America dairy

import volumes increased

0.6%, or 1,390 MT, in July

compared to the same

period the year prior.

The increase was mainly

due to higher import

volumes of SMP and whey

powder by Mexico, partially

offset by lower import

volumes of WMP by Brazil.

Imports for the 12 months

to July were up 5.3%, or

137,975 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

The increase was mainly

due to higher import

volumes of SMP and

cheese by Mexico and

the Dominican Republic,

partially offset by lower

import volumes of WMP

and AMF by Brazil and

Mexico, respectively.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes

increased 4.8%, or

22,907 MT, in July

compared to the same

period the year prior.

The increase was mainly

due to higher import

volumes of SMP, and

fluid milk products by

the Philippines.

Imports for the 12 months

to July were up 4.4%, or

229,212MT, on the previous

comparable period.

The increase was mainly

due to higher import

volumes of fluid milk

products by the Philippines

and Vietnam, and SMP by

the Philippines and Japan.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes1

decreased 3.7%, or

18,557 MT, in July compared

to the same period the

year prior.

The decrease was mainly

due to lower import

volumes of fluid milk

products by the United

Arab Emirates.

Imports for the 12 months

to July were down 3.6%, or

216,129 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

The decrease was

mainly due to lower

import volumes of fluid

milk products by the

United Arab Emirates and

WMP by Saudi Arabia.

China dairy import

volumes increased by

6. 8%, or 16,802 MT, in

August compared to the

same period the year prior.

The increase was mainly

due to higher import

volumes of whey powder

from the US, and fluid

milk products, with more

than 85% originating from

New Zealand and Europe.

Imports for the 12 months

to August were up 3.2%, or

91,107 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

The increase was mainly

due to higher import

volumes of whey powder.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%%%%

%%

Change for July 2025

compared to July 2024

Change for August 2025

compared to August 2024

Change for July 2025

compared to July 2024

Change for July 2025

compared to July 2024

Change for the 12 months

to July 2025

Change for the 12 months

to July 2025

Change for the 12 months

to July 2025

To view a chart that

illustrates year‑on‑year

changes in imports –

6.84.80.6

4.43.6

%

Change for the 12 months to

August 2025

3.2

3.7

5.3

%

To view a table that shows
detailed milk collections in

New Zealand and Australia

compared to the previous

season‑

Season-to-date 1 July–31 August

compared to prior season

Season-to-date 1 June–31 August

compared to prior season

Season-to-date 1 June–31 August

compared to prior season

Season-to-date 1 June–31 August

compared to prior season

Increase for August 2025

compared to August 2024

Increase for August 2025

compared to August 2024

Increase for August 2025

compared to August 2024

Increase for August 2025

compared to August 2024

3.51.6

2.4

3.42.0

2.43.53.2

VOLUME (M LITRES/DAY)

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY

2024/25

2023/242022/23

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

5

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Milk Collections

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

New Zealand Milk Collections

Fonterra's Australia

collections

in August

were 7.3 million kgMS,

3.5% higher than August

last season.

The increase was mainly

due to favourable pasture

conditions, supported

by rainfall across most

regions. Despite the rainfall,

milk supply continues

to be constrained by

the ongoing drought

recovery and lower herd

sizes, however farm gate

margins are favourable for

farmers not still reliant on

brought‑in fodder.

Season‑to ‑date collections

for Fonterra Australia are

12.8 million kgMS, 2.4%

above last season.

North Island milk

collections in August

were 72.3 million kgMS,

3.4% higher than August

last season.

The increase was mainly

due to favourable

weather conditions

across most regions, with

cooler temperatures

and longer periods of

sunlight compared to

historical averages.

Soil moisture was at field

capacity for all parts of

the North Island except

for some drier areas in

Hawkes Bay.

Season‑to ‑date collections

are 104.2 million kgMS,

3.5% above last season.

South Island milk

collections in August

were 27.6 million kgMS,

1.6% lower than August

last season.

The decrease was mainly

due to variable weather

conditions across the

region, with some parts

experiencing soil moisture

levels above capacity.

This was partially offset

by longer periods of

sunlight compared to

historical averages.

Season‑to ‑date collections

are 33.1 million kgMS, 2.4%

above last season.

Fonterra's New Zealand

collections for August

were 99.9 million kgMS,

2.0% above August

last season.

The increase was mainly

due to favourable weather

conditions in the North

Island, with collections

comfortably above August

last year, partially offset

by lower collections in the

South Island.

Season‑to ‑date collections

are 137.3 million kgMS, 3.2%

above last season.

%%

%%%%

%%

%
%

%

%

%

To view more

information, including

a snapshot of the rolling

year‑to ‑date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZD/USD SPOT RATE

Sep 23SEP 24JAN 25MAY 25SEP 25MAY 24JAN 24

800

950

1,100

1,400

1,250

0.54

0.57

0.60

0.63

0.66

PRICE INDEX

NZD / USD

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity prices and New Zealand

dollar trend

The NZD weakened following GDP figures that showed

a sharper‑than‑expected contraction in New Zealand’s

economy during Q2 2025, leaving output down 0.6% over

the past year. Markets swiftly priced in further RBNZ easing

of at least 50bps by year‑end, with a small chance of 75bps.

Meanwhile, although the US Federal Reserve cut rates at

its September meeting, its accompanying commentary

was more cautious than anticipated, emphasising a

data‑dependent stance on future moves. The NZD/USD

exchange rate subsequently fell to a five‑month low.

Fonterra GDT results

at trading event 388

16 September 2025:

The next trading event will be held on 7 October 2025. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average

product price from

previous event

0.1

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

4,081

USD

Fonterra product

quantity sold on GDT

000’ MT

37.8

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 6,802/MT

1.7

AMF

USD 4,814/MT

2.2

CHEDDAR

USD 3,787/MT

0.5

WMP

USD 2,613/MT

0.0

SMP

USD 6,892/MT

0.7

BUTTER

37,757

MT

LATEST AUCTION

144,618

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
Our Performance

Fonterra reports

continued strong

performance in FY25

Fonterra released its

FY25 annual results

this month, showing

the Co‑op generated

$26 billion in revenue and

delivered $16.2 billion

in total cash returns

to shareholders.

The final Farmgate

Milk Price for the

2024/25 season was

$10.16 per kgMS,

equating to $15.3 billion

in milk payments to

New Zealand farmers, up

$3.8 billion on last year.

The Co‑op also

announced a FY25

full year dividend of

57 cents fully imputed,

and at the upper end

of its dividend policy,

equating to $916 million

of cash to shareholders

and unit holders. This is

comprised of a 22 cent

interim dividend and

35 cent final dividend.

CEO Miles Hurrell says

FY25 was one of the

Co‑op’s strongest

years yet in terms of

shareholder returns.

“We continue to see

good demand from

global customers for our

high‑quality products

made from New Zealand

farmers’ milk and this is

driving returns through

both the Farmgate Milk

Price and dividends,”

he says.

“Our vision is to be the

source of the world’s

most valued dairy. Our

strategy is designed

to grow end‑to ‑end

value for farmers by

focusing on being a B2B

dairy nutrition provider,

working closely with

customers through

our high‑performing

Ingredients and

Foodservice channels.

“During the year, we’ve

taken important steps

towards this goal,

including running a

robust divestment

process for global

Consumer and

associated businesses.

This resulted in an

agreement to sell the

businesses to Lactalis

for $4.22 billion, subject

to approvals.

“We’re also positioning

the Co‑op to deliver

further value through

our Foodservice and

Ingredients businesses,

including continuing

to invest in new

manufacturing capability

to meet growing

customer demand for

our high‑value products.

“We have a pipeline

of potential growth

investments we’re

assessing, with plans

to invest up to $1 billion

over the next three to

four years in projects to

generate further value

and drive operational

cost efficiencies.”

The Co‑op delivered

a Return on Capital of

10.9%, in line with the

target range of 10‑12%.

Looking ahead, the

Co‑op has revised its

forecast milk collections

for the 2025/26 season

from 1,490 million kgMS

to 1,525 million kgMS.

The 2025/26 forecast

Farmgate Milk Price is

$10.00 per kgMS with

a range of $9.00‑$ 11.00

per kgMS.

While there are always

risks that may impact

future performance,

Fonterra continues

to target dividend

payments within its

policy range of 60%‑80%

of earnings in the

medium term.

“Our ongoing balance

sheet strength,

combined with our

focused strategic

direction, means the

Co‑op is well prepared

for the future and

positioned to continue

delivering positive

returns to shareholders,”

Hurrell says.

Our Co-op
8

New UHT cream

plant takes shape

in Southland

Construction of

Fonterra’s new UHT

cream plant at Edendale

is on track, with just one

year to go until the first

product rolls off the line.

Established in

1881, Edendale is

New Zealand’s oldest

dairy processing site and

was the first to export

refrigerated cheese.

Come next August, it

will celebrate another

milestone as Fonterra’s

first South Island site

producing and exporting

UHT cream.

Around $150 million is

being invested in the

expansion, which is part

of the Co‑op’s strategy

to grow capacity for

high‑value products.

The new plant will initially

produce more than

50 million litres of UHT

cream each year to meet

growing demand across

Asia, with plans to more

than double that capacity

by 2030.

Visible from State

Highway 1, the site is

taking shape almost

nine months after

construction began

in January.

The walls and concrete

slabs for processing

and packing are up,

and the roof is mostly

on. The product store

is well underway,

and construction

of the distribution

warehouse has begun.

External excavation is

nearly complete and

foundations for the

container yard are

progressing well.

Andrew Johns, Fonterra’s

General Manager of

Lower South Island

Operations, says the

project is on track.

“We’re making sure

we deliver a safe

plant that can then

produce high‑quality

product that exceeds

customer expectations.”

Currently, more than

50 people are working

on the build, with that

number expected to

grow to 150 over the

coming months.

“We're really excited

about this opportunity

to build a new plant here

in Southland and supply

UHT cream for growing

markets,” Johns says.

“There’s good energy

on site and I hope that’s

filtering through to the

community too.”

Demand for Fonterra’s

UHT products continues

to grow, with a projected

4% compound annual

growth rate over the

next seven years.

The UHT cream

produced at Edendale

will be sold through the

Co‑op’s Foodservice

business, Anchor Food

Professionals™, as Anchor

Whipping Cream.

Anchor Whipping

Cream’s formulation

was developed by

Fonterra’s Research and

Development Centre in

Palmerston North and is

an example of how the

Co‑op uses innovation

to add value to its

farmers’ milk.

The cream is a favourite

in China, where

it’s used in about

400 million beverages

and 260 million cakes

each year.

It’s also popular in

Malaysia and Vietnam.

About 5,000 egg tarts

made with Anchor

Whipping Cream are

sold every day by one

of Fonterra’s customers

in Malaysia, while sales

of the cream in Vietnam

almost doubled in value

between 2022 and 2024.

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

JUL 25FEB 25

JAN 25DEC 24OCT 24SEP 24AUG 25APR 25JUN 25MAY 25MAR 25NOV 24

LIQUID MILK (M LITRES)

-1,000

-750

-500

-250

0

500

250

EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

APR 25MAR 25FEB 25DEC 24NOV 24OCT 24SEP 24AUG 25JUL 25JUN 25MAY 25JAN 25

MT (000

s

)

-100

-50

0

100

50

150

AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

APR 25MAR 25JAN 25DEC 24SEP 24OCT 24NOV 24JUN 25JUL 25AUG 25FEB 25MAY 25

MT (000

s

)

-80

-40

0

120

80

40

AVERAGE

9


Supplementary Information

Global Dairy

Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year‑on‑

year changes in imports,

exports and production

for a range of countries

that are important

players in global

dairy trade.

NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to July; New Zealand and US to August.

NOTE: Data for EU, US and Australia to July; New Zealand to August.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa and Latin America to July; China to August.

SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra

10

Supplementary Information

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the

right shows Fonterra

milk solids collected

in New Zealand and

Australia compared to

the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

AUGUST

2025

AUGUST

2024

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2025/26

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2024/25

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

99.998.02.0%137.3133.03.2 %

North Island72.370.03.4%104.2100.73.5%

South Island27.628.0(1.6%)33.132.32.4%

Australia7.37.03.5%12.812.52.4%

2025/26 season

Forecast Farmgate

Milk Price

(FGMP) update

ANNOUNCEMENT

DATE

FORECAST

FGMP / RANGE

(NZD)

NZD/USD

RATE AT

ANNOUNCEMENT

DATE

FORECAST

AVERAGE

CONVERSION

RATE FOR

2025/26

SEASON

FORECAST

FOREIGN

EXCHANGE

EXPOSURE

FOR 2025/26

SEASON

HEDGED (%)

FOREIGN

EXCHANGE

OPTION

COVER

REMAINING

IN HEDGED

AMOUNT (%)

21 August 2025$10.00 /

$9.00‑$ 11.00

0.58210.588865%17%

29 May 2025$10.00 /

$8.00‑$ 11.00

0.59680.595148%10%

As at the most recent update to the 2025/26 season forecast Farmgate Milk Price

on 21 August 2025:

• Fonterra had hedged approximately 65% of the full year forecast USD cash flows

related to the 2025/26 season Farmgate Milk Price.

• Of that 65%, approximately 17% was hedged with foreign exchange options which

had not yet expired or been exercised.

• If the remaining 35% of the forecast USD cash flows were to be hedged at the 21

August 2025 spot rate of 0.5821, the average NZD/USD conversion rate for the

2025 season would be 0.5888.

• Also shown for information are the equivalent measures at the date of the previous

forecast of the 2025/26 season Farmgate Milk Price on 29 May 2025.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
NOV 24OCT 24AUG 25MAY 25SEP 25FEB 25MAR 25DEC 24APR 25JUN 25JUL 25JAN 25

10,000

16,000

22,000

34,000

28,000

40,000

3,400

3,700

4,300

4,000

4,600

4,900

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE (USD/MT)

QUANTITY SOLD ( MT)

Fonterra GDT

results

This chart shows

Fonterra GDT prices and

volumes over the past

12 months.

Fonterra GDT

results

This table provides

more information on the

latest results, including

a snapshot of the rolling

year‑to ‑date results.

LAST TRADING

EVENT


(16 SEPTEMBER 2025)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM

1 AUGUST 2025)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

37,757144,618

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

3.3%3.2 %

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

4,0814,200

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period last year

4.9%9.0%

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

(0.1%)‑

11


Supplementary Information

12
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

Cultured Products

Fermented milks that are

prepared by using starter

cultures and controlled

fermentation including

yoghurt, yoghurt

drinks, sour cream, and

crème fraiche.

DIRA

Dairy Industry

Restructuring Act 2001

(New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk

supplied in New Zealand

to Fonterra by farmer

shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk

products (evaporated

milk and sweetened

condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade,

the online provider

of the twice monthly

global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids,

the measure of the

amount of fat and

protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non‑Reference

Products

All dairy products,

except for Reference

Products, produced

by the New Zealand

Ingredients business.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price,

which are currently

WMP, SMP, BMP, butter

and AMF.


Glossary

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein

Concentrate.

WPI

Whey Protein Isolate.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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