What does the Activist Vulnerability Score measure?

The score analyses 8 factors including governance quality, ownership concentration, pay-performance alignment, board tenure, shareholder dissent, capital allocation, and political connections to identify companies that may be more susceptible to activist campaigns. It is an analytical tool and does not predict or encourage activist activity.

Does a high score mean a company will be targeted by activists?

No. A high score indicates the presence of multiple factors that, based on available data, may suggest potential vulnerability. Many companies with high scores are never targeted, and activist campaigns can occur at companies with low scores. The score is for informational purposes only.

How is pay-performance misalignment measured?

The pay-performance factor compares CEO total compensation against one-year shareholder returns. Higher compensation combined with negative returns may suggest potential misalignment, though there can be legitimate reasons for this pattern including long-term strategic investments.

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Activist Vulnerability Score

Composite 0-100 score identifying NZX companies that may be susceptible to activist campaigns, based on 8 governance and financial factors

131

Companies Analysed

Average Score

Very High

High

Elevated

Market-Wide Factor Averages

Average score per factor across all analysed companies. Higher averages may indicate systemic patterns.

Ownership Concentration

121 companies with data

Capital Allocation

127 companies with data

Pay Performance

115 companies with data

Governance Risk

124 companies with data

Shareholder Dissent

118 companies with data

Board Entrenchment

130 companies with data

All Companies — Vulnerability Ranking

Sorted by composite vulnerability score (highest first). Scores are indicative only and do not constitute investment advice.

Ticker	Company	Sector	Score	Rating	Gov	Own	Pay	Ent	Cov	Top Factors
ARB	ArborGen Holdings Limited	Industrials	49	Elevated	33	90	70	40

Methodology

The Activist Vulnerability Score aggregates 8 factors into a single 0-100 composite score. Higher scores may indicate a greater number of characteristics associated with activist targeting, based on available data. The score is an analytical tool and does not predict or encourage activist activity.

Governance Risk

20%

Inverted GRS — lower governance quality may increase vulnerability

Ownership Concentration

15%

Dispersed ownership may make it easier to build a stake

Director Failure Rate

10%

Board track record across previous roles

Pay-Performance

15%

CEO pay relative to shareholder returns

Board Entrenchment

10%

Long average tenure with limited refreshment

Shareholder Dissent

10%

AGM voting dissent levels

Capital Allocation

10%

ROE/ROIC vs estimated cost of capital

Political Connections

10%

MP interest links and political donations

See also: Corporate Risk Score — composite litigation, regulatory, governance risk. · Dissent Tracker — AGM voting dissent analysis. · CEO Pay vs Returns — CEO compensation vs shareholder returns. · Ownership Intelligence — top 20 shareholder analysis.

Related Insights

Activist Investor Targeting

Identifies NZX companies potentially vulnerable to activist campaigns based on governance risk, capital allocation, and financial weakness signals.

Governance Red Flags Report

Companies with multiple governance indicators below common thresholds. Flags include: low board independence (<50%), no female directors, resolutions not passed, directors with 12+ year tenure (NZX independence threshold), and low GRS scores (<50).

NZX Governance League Table

A data-driven ranking of all NZX companies by their Governance Risk Score (v2.0)

Data sourced from NZX governance data, shareholder registers, AGM voting records, financial statements, and political connection data. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz.

For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.