Get NZX governance insights in your inbox
Weekly digest of board changes, insider trades, and market signals. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Get NZX governance insights in your inbox
Weekly digest of board changes, insider trades, and market signals. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
A data-driven analysis of KMD Brands (Kathmandu, Rip Curl, Oboz) from peak to trading suspension. Financial decomposition, sentiment trajectory, board remuneration, insider trading patterns, audit history, and the conflict of interest between the Chairman's dual role at KMD and the company underwriting its emergency capital raise.
All data sourced from NZX announcements, annual reports, NZ Companies Office, and NZXplorer's AI sentiment analysis. This is analytical commentary based on public data, not financial advice.
| EPS | Net Margin | Debt/Equity | EBITDA | Board Fees | Z-Score | Int. Cover | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | +16.35c | +3.3% | 0.90 | $127M | $1.08M | — | — | ~$1.30 |
| FY2023 | +16.25c | +3.3% | 0.83 | $200M | $1.08M | — | — | ~$0.85 |
| FY2024 | -21.45c | -4.9% | 0.83 | $107M | $1.08M | — | — | ~$0.47 |
| FY2025 | -41.53c | -5.5% | 1.19 | $145M* | $2.55M | 0.07 | -13.6x | $0.195 |
* FY25 EBITDA includes lease adjustments under IFRS 16. Z-Score below 1.8 indicates financial distress; KMD's 0.07 is extreme. Interest coverage of -13.6x means operating losses exceed interest obligations. Financial data in NZD thousands from NZXplorer DB.
NZXplorer's AI sentiment analysis scores every announcement on a -1.0 to +1.0 scale and detects "buried risks" — material disclosures embedded deep in positive-framing announcements. The sentiment trajectory below shows the progression from optimism to crisis.
Positive tone. EBITDA guidance upgraded.
KMD Brands achieves B Corp certification. Peak ESG narrative.
New sustainability-linked facility. Increased liquidity.
Leaves to become CEO at another NZX company. Permanent CFO still being recruited.
Record revenue, positive sentiment. But cracks appearing.
Tone turns sharply negative.
Second consecutive negative update. Guidance downgraded.
All three brands in decline. Kathmandu gross margin fell 240bps.
Guidance downgraded again. Kathmandu winter sales "significantly below expectations."
EPS collapses to -21.45c. Underlying NPAT loss of $1.1M masks $48.3M statutory loss.
EBITDA guidance cut to $1-3M range (was ~$15-25M). Covenant amendment required.
EBITDA down 74.3% despite flat sales. Net loss of $20.7m vs prior profit.
Underlying EBITDA down 64.7%. NTA per share halved. Oboz impairment signals strategic misstep.
Kirk, Foote, Armstrong, Scrimshaw, Bowman, Washington all buy at $0.26-$0.30 in a coordinated window. Over 1M shares acquired in 2 weeks.
David Kirk steps down as director of Forsyth Barr Limited (the operating broker) after 16 years 7 months. Remains Chairman of Forsyth Barr Group (parent). Source: NZ Companies Office.
Positive framing, but buried risks persist.
EBITDA guidance upgraded. Markets react positively. But:
Allan Gray Australia lodges substantial product holder notice. Institutional positioning ahead of crisis.
KMD forced to respond to media speculation about the company's future.
KMD rejects Stokehouse's proposal to demerge Rip Curl. Board says it creates "no value for shareholders."
Triple announcement: trading halt requested, capital raise flagged, half-year results delayed.
Results were originally scheduled for this day. Halt extended.
NZX formally suspends KMD trading. Stock last traded at $0.195.
$65.3M raise at $0.06/share. Underwriters: Goldman Sachs NZ and Forsyth Barr. Half-year net loss $13.1M; full-year statutory loss $93.6M. David Kirk announces intention to step down as Chairman "in the coming months."
| Year | Kirk (Chair) | Foote | Martens | Bowman | Scrimshaw | Armstrong | Daly (CEO) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | $275K | $182K | $181K | $148K | $148K | $98K | — | $1.08M |
| FY2024 | $273K | $181K | $180K | $148K | $148K | $148K | — | $1.08M |
| FY2025 | $277K | $150K | $150K | $150K | $97K | $150K | $1.57M | $2.55M |
Context:FY25 total board and executive remuneration of $2.55M was paid during a year when EPS was -41.53c, the stock fell 77% from its FY23 level, and the Z-Score indicated extreme financial distress. CEO Michael Daly received $1.57M. Kirk's chair fee remained steady at ~$275K across all three years despite accelerating losses.
Board and executive fees as a percentage of market capitalisation across NZX Consumer Discretionary peers. A higher ratio indicates more shareholder value consumed by governance costs relative to company size. Chair fees shown are the most recent available (FY indicated). HLG FY2023 used as FY2025 figure ($718K) appears to include executive duties.
| Company | Market Cap | Total Board Fees | Fees as % Mkt Cap | Chair Fee | Chair % Mkt Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KMDKMD Brands | $160M | $2.55M | 1.592% | $277K (FY25) | 0.173% |
| HLGHallenstein Glasson | $592M | $2.37M | 0.400% | $135K (FY23) | 0.023% |
| SKCSkyCity | $871M | $1.35M | 0.155% | $355K (FY25) | 0.041% |
| WHSWarehouse Group | $250M | $851K | 0.340% | $170K (FY25) | 0.068% |
| MHJMichael Hill | $198M | $798K | 0.403% | $221K (FY25) | 0.112% |
| TRATurners Auto | $756M | $825K | 0.109% | $190K (FY25) | 0.025% |
| BGPBriscoe Group | $1.03B | $433K | 0.042% | $163K (FY25) | 0.016% |
| THLTourism Holdings | $531M | $703K | 0.132% | $125K (FY25) | 0.024% |
| CMOColonial Motor | $268M | $326K | 0.122% | $118K (FY25) | 0.044% |
KMD's board fees consume 1.59% of market cap— nearly 4x the next highest peer (MHJ 0.40%) and 13x the peer median (~0.12%). Kirk's chair fee of $277K at a $160M company equates to 0.17% of market cap — 7x the peer median of 0.025%. Julian Cook receives $355K at SkyCity ($871M, 0.04%) and Dame Rosanne Meo receives $163K at Briscoe Group ($1.03B, 0.016%). Peer median chair fee: $170K (FY2025).
Shareholder alignment: From FY2023 peak to March 2026 suspension, KMD shareholders lost approximately 85% of their investment (stock price ~$1.30 → $0.195, before the $0.06 raise). During this period, the board collected approximately $4.7M in fees. The CEO received $1.57M in FY2025 while EPS was -41.53c, the Z-Score was 0.07, and interest coverage was -13.6x. No dividends were paid.
Forsyth Barr actively covered KMD via its equity research division throughout the period Kirk chaired both companies. The rating was Outperform from July 2020 to December 2023, briefly downgraded to Neutral, then re-upgraded to Outperform in June 2024— during KMD's sharpest period of decline — and maintained there until June 2025. In total, KMD carried an Outperform rating from Forsyth Barr for approximately 4.5 of the 6 years examined.
| Date | Rating | Target | Report Title | Analyst(s) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2020 | OUTPERFORM | $1.50 | Climbing Higher | Guy Hooper |
| 26 Nov 2020 | OUTPERFORM | ~$1.65 | Rip Curl Swells into Southern Summer | Guy Hooper |
| 15 Feb 2021 | OUTPERFORM | $1.60 | A Tale of Two Brands | Guy Hooper, Ashton Olds CFA |
| 17 Mar 2021 | OUTPERFORM | $1.60 | 1H21 Preview — What's in Store | Guy Hooper, Ashton Olds CFA |
| 21 Mar 2022 | OUTPERFORM | — | 1H22 Preview — Closer to the Trail? | Andy Bowley, Matt Noland CFA |
| 21 Sep 2022 | OUTPERFORM | — | FY22 Result — A Step in the Right Direction | Andy Bowley |
| 14 Mar 2023 | OUTPERFORM | — | 1H23 Preview — Scanning Ahead | Andy Bowley |
| 13 Sep 2023 | OUTPERFORM | — | FY23 Preview — Scanning Ahead | Andy Bowley, Margaret Bei CFA |
| 21 Dec 2023 | NEUTRAL ↓ | — | Tough Climb Ahead — Downgrade to NEUTRAL | Margaret Bei CFA, Andy Bowley |
| 13 Jun 2024 | OUTPERFORM ↑ | — | Hitting the Trail — Upgrade to OUTPERFORM | Rohan Koreman-Smit CFA |
| 24 Jun 2024 | OUTPERFORM | — | Consumers Hibernate for Winter | Rohan Koreman-Smit CFA |
| 21 Aug 2024 | OUTPERFORM | — | Positioned to Ride the Wave | Rohan Koreman-Smit CFA |
| 26 Sep 2024 | OUTPERFORM | — | FY24 Result — On the Trail | Rohan Koreman-Smit CFA |
| 28 Jan 2025 | OUTPERFORM | — | Making it Out of the Barrel | Paul Laxton Koraua, Rohan Koreman-Smit CFA |
| 9 Apr 2025 | OUTPERFORM | $0.47 | Trump Tariff Impact — Target Cut to $0.47 | Paul Koraua, Rohan Koreman-Smit CFA |
| 23 Jun 2025 | NEUTRAL ↓ | $0.34 | Loses Bull as Weather Dents Sales | Paul Laxton Koraua |
| 24 Sep 2025 | NEUTRAL | — | FY25 Result — Fine Margins | Paul Laxton Koraua, Rohan Koreman-Smit CFA |
| 3 Feb 2026 | NEUTRAL | — | On the Trail | Rohan Koreman-Smit CFA |
| 1 Apr 2026 | NEUTRAL | — | 1H26 Result and NZ$65m Capital Raise | Koreman-Smit, Laxton Koraua, Averill |
Key observations:
Sources: Forsyth Barr research library (forsythbarr.co.nz), BusinessDesk, NZ Herald, MT Newswires/Dow Jones, SmartKarma. Price targets for most 2021–2024 reports are behind a client login wall.
David Kirk served simultaneously as Chairman of KMD Brands and Chairman of Forsyth Barr Group. On 31 March 2026, Forsyth Barr was announced as co-underwriter (with Goldman Sachs NZ) of KMD's emergency $65.3M capital raise at a 69% discount. Kirk announced his resignation from KMD the same day.
| Entity | Role | Since | Until | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KMD Brands Limited | Chairman | Feb 2014 | Mar 2026 (announced) | NZX |
| Forsyth Barr Group Limited | Chairman | Mar 2009 | Current | Companies Office |
| Forsyth Barr Limited | Director | Mar 2009 | Oct 2025 | Companies Office |
| NZ Rugby | Board Chair | Feb 2025 | Current | Public |
| Bailador Technology Investments | Chairman | — | Current | ASX |
| Kiwi Harvest Limited | Chairman | 2014 | — | CharityData |
| NZ Food Rescue Trust | Trustee/Chairman | 2012 | — | CharityData |
| Ovato NZ Limited (formerly PMP) | Director (was CEO) | 2003 | Inactive — In Liquidation | Companies Office |
Key sequence:
Forsyth Barr also actively covered KMD via its equity research division — rating the stock Outperform for approximately 4.5 of the 6 years examined, including a re-upgrade in June 2024 during the steepest phase of the decline. Sources: Forsyth Barr research library, BusinessDesk, MT Newswires, SmartKarma.
Following the FY25 results showing -41.53c EPS and a $45.4M Oboz impairment, nearly every KMD director purchased shares in a concentrated window. Over 2 million shares were acquired at $0.26–$0.30.
| Date | Type | Shares | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-26 | Buy | 76,827 | $0.26 |
| 2025-09-29 | Buy (multiple) | 632,000 | $0.27 |
| 2025-09-29 | Transfer | 54,545 | $0.27 |
| 2025-10-02 | Buy | 189,000 | $0.275 |
| 2025-10-08 | Buy | 120,500 | $0.30 |
| 2025-10-09 | Acquisition | 700,000 | $0.30 |
| 2025-10-10 | Buy | 37,037 | $0.29 |
| 2025-11-20 | Buy | 35,000 | $0.285 |
Six directors filed ongoing disclosure notices between Sep 26 and Nov 20, 2025: Kirk, Foote, Armstrong, Scrimshaw, Bowman, and Washington. These shares were purchased at $0.26–$0.30 — approximately 4–5x the subsequent capital raise price of $0.06.
While institutions were selling and the analyst rating chased the price down, KMD's directors invested their own money — repeatedly, at every price level, through a 91% peak-to-trough decline. Only one insider ever sold (a post-vesting disposal). This represents a 99%+ insider retention rate on a stock that lost nine-tenths of its value.
| Insider | Role | Est. Investment | Price Range | Shares Sold | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Bowman | Director → Chair | ~$2.1M+ | $1.44 → $0.27 | Never sold | Bought at every level from $1.44 down to $0.27. Never sold a single share despite 81% drawdown on earliest purchases. |
| David Kirk | Chairman | ~$700K+ | Multiple levels | Never sold | Consistent buyer across years. Maintained position through 91% peak-to-trough decline. |
| Michael Daly | CEO | Disclosed purchases | Various | Never sold | Bought with personal capital alongside directors. |
| Chris Kinraid | Former CFO | — | $0.51 | 100,000 | Only insider to sell. Sold 100K shares at $0.51 following a vesting event. Subsequently left the company. |
| Brent Scrimshaw | Director | Multiple purchases | $0.26–$0.30 | Never sold | Bought in the Sep–Nov 2025 cluster. |
| David Foote | Director | Multiple purchases | $0.26–$0.30 | Never sold | Bought in the Sep–Nov 2025 cluster. |
| Jonathan Armstrong | Director | Multiple purchases | $0.26–$0.30 | Never sold | Bought in the Sep–Nov 2025 cluster. |
| Kate Washington | Director | Multiple purchases | $0.26–$0.30 | Never sold | Bought in the Sep–Nov 2025 cluster. |
The contrast is notable. Bowman bought at $1.44, then kept buying as the stock fell to $0.27 — an 81% drawdown on his earliest purchases — and never sold. Kirk put in $700K+. These are not token compliance purchases. This is conviction with personal capital at scale, sustained over years.
Whatever criticism can be levelled at governance or compensation, the insider buying record suggests the board genuinely believed in the business. The Sep–Nov 2025 cluster — 6 directors buying immediately after -41.53c EPS and a $45.4M impairment — is particularly striking. Those shares were purchased at $0.26–$0.30, approximately 4–5x the subsequent capital raise price of $0.06.
KMD's shareholder register tells a story of deep institutional disagreement. While NZ Super Fund tripled its position, Australian institutions and retail investors were exiting en masse. The divergence is unusually wide — most declining stocks see uniform selling.
| Holder | 5-Year Movement | Signal | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| NZ Super Fund | 37M → 98M shares (+166%) | Accumulating aggressively | Sovereign wealth fund with long-term mandate. Tripled position through the decline — the strongest institutional conviction signal. |
| HSBC/Allan Gray (AU) | 75M → 33M shares (−57%) | Major exit | Halved position over 5 years. Feb 2026 SPH notice filed. With hindsight, the exit was well-timed. |
| Yarra Capital | 51M → 0 (ceased Oct 2024) | Complete exit | Exited at ~$0.49–0.53 before another 60%+ decline. The 50.5M volume spike on Oct 10, 2024 (143.6x avg) coincides with this exit. |
| FNZ/Retail | 21M → 3.9M (−82%) | Retail bailing | Retail investors exiting en masse. Custodial platform outflows. |
| Briscoe Group | 48M → 48M (unchanged) | Strategic holder | Rod Duke’s position — strategic, not investment-driven. No change since 2020. |
| FB Custodians | 1.7M → 14.5M → 6.5M → 8.4M | Built, dumped, rebuilt | Peaked at 14.5M (Sep 2023) right before the FB downgrade. Halved in 2024 during the heaviest selling. Then partially rebuilt. |
NZ Super Fund added 61M shares (+166%) through the decline — the strongest institutional accumulation signal. As a sovereign wealth fund with a multi-decade mandate, this suggests a deep value thesis rather than momentum trading.
Yarra Capital's complete exitin Oct 2024 was the most decisive institutional move. The 50.5M volume spike on Oct 10, 2024 (143.6x average) — the largest single-day volume in KMD's history — almost certainly represents this exit. The stock fell another 60%+ afterward.
FB Custodians present a more complex picture. Their position peaked at 14.5M shares (Sep 2023) right before the Forsyth Barr downgrade — then halved to 6.5M during 2024 as custodial clients sold. The rebuild to 8.4M in 2025 came as the stock continued falling. The timing of the peak and sell-off relative to the analyst rating change raises questions about information flow between the research and custodial divisions.
4,164 trading days of KMD price data from Yahoo Finance. The stock has delivered five consecutive negative years (2022–2026) with a cumulative peak-to-trough decline of 91% ($2.16 → $0.195). Declining volume in 2025–2026 suggests either seller exhaustion or evaporating interest.
| Year | Open | Close | High | Low | Avg Daily Vol | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | $1.30 | $2.00 | $2.02 | $1.15 | 343,522 | +54.4% |
| 2020 | $2.01 | $1.10 | $2.16 | $0.42 | 1,954,505 | -45.3% |
| 2021 | $1.09 | $1.35 | $1.45 | $1.04 | 970,378 | +23.7% |
| 2022 | $1.34 | $0.97 | $1.34 | $0.91 | 637,702 | -27.8% |
| 2023 | $0.95 | $0.75 | $1.09 | $0.70 | 773,933 | -20.8% |
| 2024 | $0.75 | $0.45 | $0.77 | $0.35 | 816,661 | -40.7% |
| 2025 | $0.44 | $0.29 | $0.45 | $0.23 | 394,711 | -35.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $0.28 | $0.195 | $0.29 | $0.195 | 249,744 | -30.4% |
| Event | Date | Avg Price | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| FB Outperform initiated | Jul 2020 | $1.00 | $0.94–$1.11 |
| FB Outperform maintained, custodians building | Sep 2022 | $0.94 | $0.90–$0.98 |
| FB Outperform maintained, custodians peak | Sep 2023 | $0.79 | $0.73–$0.85 |
| FB DOWNGRADE to Neutral | Dec 2023 | $0.76 | $0.70–$0.82 |
| FB UPGRADE back to Outperform | Jun 2024 | $0.41 | $0.34–$0.45 |
| FB DOWNGRADE to Neutral (again) | Jun 2025 | $0.29 | $0.27–$0.32 |
| Trading suspended | Mar 2026 | $0.195 | $0.195–$0.245 |
85 significant volume spikes detected since 2020. The most notable align with known institutional movements and analyst rating changes — providing hard evidence of repositioning.
| Date | Price | Volume | Multiple | Likely Event |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Sep 2020 | $1.04 | 15.1M | 14.4x | FY20 result — institutional repositioning |
| 26 Nov 2021 | $1.31 | 9.4M | 12.3x | Near peak price — early distribution? |
| 11 May 2022 | $1.08 | 8.2M | 19.7x | Earnings or major institutional move |
| 15 Sep 2023 | $0.75 | 19.2M | 12.0x | Pre-downgrade. FB Custodians at peak 14.5M shares |
| 10 Oct 2024 | $0.49 | 50.5M | 143.6x | Massive block trade. Yarra Capital exits. Largest single-day volume in KMD history |
| 26 Feb 2025 | $0.39 | 4.3M | 15.5x | Post-result selling pressure |
| 09 Sep 2025 | $0.255 | 6.2M | 23.3x | Late-stage capitulation |
| 21 Jan 2026 | $0.27 | 1.1M | 6.1x | Post-trading update repositioning |
The two most extreme volume spikes— Sep 15, 2023 (19.2M shares, 12x avg) and Oct 10, 2024 (50.5M shares, 143.6x avg) — both align with known institutional movements. The Sep 2023 spike coincides with FB Custodians reaching their peak position of 14.5M shares; the Oct 2024 spike coincides with Yarra Capital's complete exit and represents approximately 7% of total shares outstanding changing hands in a single day.
Declining average volume from 816K/day (2024) to 395K (2025) to 250K (2026 YTD) suggests either seller exhaustion or evaporating market interest. The stock hit an all-time low of $0.195 in March 2026 before trading was suspended.
Price data: Yahoo Finance (KMD.NZ), 4,164 trading days from Aug 2009 to Mar 2026. Volume multiples calculated against 20-day moving average. All prices in NZD.
| FY | Firm | Partner | Opinion | Going Concern | Fee | Key Audit Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | PwC | — | Unmodified | No | $126K | — |
| 2016 | PwC | Nathan Wylie | Unmodified | No | $133K | Goodwill & brand impairment, inventory |
| 2017 | PwC | Nathan Wylie | Unmodified | No | $133K | Goodwill & brand impairment, inventory |
| 2018 | PwC | Leopino Foliaki | Unmodified | No | $175K | Oboz acquisition intangibles, inventory |
| 2019 | PwC | Leopino Foliaki | Unmodified | No | $186K | Oboz PPA finalisation, inventory |
| 2020 | PwC | Leopino Foliaki | Unmodified | No | $654K | Rip Curl acquisition, goodwill impairment, inventory, IFRS 16 leases |
| 2021 | PwC | Leopino Foliaki | Unmodified | No | $482K | Goodwill impairment (COVID), inventory (COVID) |
| 2022 | KPMG | Peter Taylor | UnmodifiedEoM | No | $1,392K | Software capitalisation & accounting policy change |
| 2023 | KPMG | — | Unmodified | No | $723K | Goodwill & brand impairment, inventory existence & valuation |
| 2024 | KPMG | — | Unmodified | No | $763K | Goodwill & brand impairment |
| 2025 | KPMG | — | Unmodified | No | — | Goodwill & brand impairment |
KMD switched auditors from PwC to KPMG in December 2021, effective from FY2022. PwC had been auditor for at least 7 years (FY2015–FY2021). Both firms issued unmodified opinions with no going concern flag throughout the entire period — including FY2025 when the Z-Score was 0.07 (extreme distress) and interest coverage was -13.6x.
Under PwC, key audit matters consistently focused on goodwill impairment and inventory valuation — the two areas where material writedowns subsequently occurred ($45.4M Oboz impairment in FY2025). KPMG's first-year fee of $1.39M(FY2022) was 2.9x PwC's final fee ($482K), with $705K in non-audit fees. KPMG issued an emphasis of matter in FY2022 regarding the software capitalisation accounting policy change. Partner Peter Taylor signed the FY2022 opinion.
As of March 25, 2026, consensus was 1 Buy / 3 Hold / 0 Sell with a mean target of $0.3375 — nearly 6x the eventual capital raise price of $0.06. The highest target was $0.45; the lowest was $0.28. Forsyth Barr's rating was Neutral (downgraded from Outperform in June 2025, which itself was a re-upgrade from a brief 6-month Neutral period in late 2023 to mid-2024).
Consensus data sourced from Yahoo Finance (aggregated). Forsyth Barr rating history sourced from Forsyth Barr research library, BusinessDesk, MT Newswires/Dow Jones, and SmartKarma.
Data sourced from NZX announcements, annual reports, NZ Companies Office, Charities Register. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.