Investor Presentation
1
International roadshow
Stockholm, Frankfurt, Zurich, London
April 2019
Macquarie Australian Conference
Sydney, 1
st
May 2019
2
Disclaimer and important information
This presentation may contain projections or forward-looking statements regarding a variety of items. Such forward-
looking statements are based upon current expectations and involve risks and uncertainties.
Actual results may differ materially from those stated in any forward-looking statement based on a number of important
factors and risks.
Although management may indicate and believe that the assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements are
reasonable, any of the assumptions could prove inaccurate or incorrect and, therefore, there can be no assurance that the
results contemplated in the forward-looking statements will be realised.
EBITDAF, underlying profit, free cash flow and operating free cash flow are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting
practice) measures. Information regarding the usefulness, calculation and reconciliation of these measures is provided in
the supporting material.
Furthermore, while all reasonable care has been taken in compiling this presentation, Contact accepts no responsibility for
any errors or omissions.
This presentation does not constitute investment advice.
Numbers in the presentation have not all been rounded and might not appear to add.
All logos and brands are property of their respective owners. All company, product and service names used in this
presentation are for identification purposes only.
All references to $ are New Zealand dollars
3
Dennis Barnes
Chief Executive Officer
Dennis Barnes has been Chief Executive Officer of Contact since
2011. Dennis has completed Contact’s $2bn investment programme
in renewable energy, flexible generation and companywide systems.
Over his time at Contact Dennis has provided industry leadership on
topics as wide ranging as wholesale electricity market structures and
health and safety reform.
During 2015, Dennis successfully led Contact as its majority
shareholder exited and Contact diversified its shareholding base and
listed on the ASX.
Prior to joining Contact, he was General Manager Energy Risk
Management at Origin Energy where he oversaw Origin's significant
and expanding operations in wholesale markets. Prior to Origin,
Dennis held a number of positions operating in international energy
markets; including managerial roles at Scottish and English electricity
companies. Dennis' career began as a metallurgist with Alcan and he
holds a BSc(Hons), GradDip (Marketing) and MBA.
4
Agenda
1
Contact in context
5 -22
23 -32
2
Why invest in Contact
33 -42
3
New Zealand electricity market
4
Appendix –1H19 results extracts
43 -54
5
5
Contact’s Wholesale business
6
Contact is an
owner and
operator of
low-cost, long-
life renewable
generation
assets with
consented
geothermal
development
options
82%52 + 1
RENEWABLE
GENERATION
GEOTHERMAL
STATIONS
HYDRO
STATIONS /
CONTROLLED
STORAGE
LAKE
415 years8.6TWh
THERMAL
STATIONS
CONTRACT
FOR GAS
STORAGE
FY18
GENERATION
Contact owns and operates thermal plant, which is used to manage
the risks associated with hydro intermittency
Contact Wholesale snapshot
7
Contact’s
geothermal
operations are
significant in a
global context
with consents
to expand
production by
~60%
Underpinning these operations is a world class geothermal
capability
»Operational experience on the world’s second longest electricity
producing geothermal field (Wairakei -1958)
»Capability in construction management, consenting and stakeholder
engagement
»We have maintained a dedicated, internationally-recognised, subsurface
team to:
»Lower the cost of operations significantly –comfortably New
Zealand’s lowest cost geothermal operator
»Investigate options to extend and improve generation at Wairakei
at the 2026 resource consent renewal
»Provide geothermal consultancy services internationally
Renewable operations
Most recent developments
431MW Geothermal
capacity
752MW Hydro
capacity
Te Mihi (2014)
166MW
Te Huka (2010)
28MW
Bioreactor (2012)
Wholesale capability assessment
20.3
17.9
FY15FY18
-4%
Operating and stay-in-business
capital cost of geothermal
production ($/MWh)
8
New Zealand
is in the early
stages of a
decades-long
transformation
from reliance
on fossil fuels
to renewable
electricity
CLIMATE CHANGE
GOVERNMENT POLICY
QUALITY, LONG LIFE
RENEWABLE ASSETS
HISTORICALLY LOW
COST OF CAPITAL
This transformation is being driven by macro economic
fundamentals
Macro-economic environment
9
Under review
Transport
policies
Ban on
offshore oil
and gas
exploration
Phase out
coal for
electricity
generation
by 2030¹
Genesis’
intention to
exit coal by
2030
Meridian’s
current
supply
contract with
Tiwai ends
2030
Net zero
carbon
emissions for
New Zealand
by 2050
Productivity
Commission
review into
the transition
to a Low
Carbon
Economy
Society is
demanding
action on
climate
change, with
clear progress
expected
The New Zealand regulatory framework is being adapted to deliver
on this societal imperative
Announced
Climate change and regulation
¹ A commitment made by the Government when New Zealand joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance.
Interim
Climate
Change
Committee
(ICCC)
Climate
Commission
Emission
Trading
Scheme
(ETS) review
Electricity
Pricing
Review
(EPR)
10
New Zealand
has added
subsidy-free
renewable
generation in
a period of flat
demand,
displacing
fossil fuels
Electricity generation mix for 2018 (%)
Source: MBIE electricity statistics
New Zealand electricity supply mix 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018
61%
5%
17%
12%
3%
2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
3%
7%
26%
2006
21%
4%
16%
2010
4%
2014
12%
2018
With world-class geothermal and wind resources consented
for development
82%
renewable
Quality, long-life renewable assets
HydroWindCoalGasGeothermalOther
11
Meaningful
reductions in
carbon
emissions are
possible with
renewable
electricity
displacing
carbon
intensive fuels
Enabled by falling renewable technology costs and rising thermal
fuel costs
Sources: Productivity Commission's Low Emissions Economy Issues Paper,
August 2017 and New Zealand's Action on Climate Change, September 2016
WITH HIGH
RENEWABLE
PENETRATION,
ELECTRICITY IS
THE SOLUTION
TO REDUCING
CARBON
EMISSIONS, NOT
THE PROBLEM
Carbon reduction opportunity
12
It is clear that
decarbonisation
will drive
demand
growth,
however the
timing is
currently
unclear
Demand at 2008 levels means investment discipline is important
36
55
5
7
3
5
Dairy sector
electrification
Electric
vehicles
Other
process heat
electrification
Renewable
electricity -
Today
Increase to
95%
renewables
Renewable
electricity -
post 2030
+56%
»Thermal availability and fuel
costs
»Carbon prices
»Investment in domestic
gas production
»Capital investment cycles
»Thermal plant life
extensions
»New electric boilers
replacing end of life
equipment
»Electric vehicle uptake
»Renewable technology costs
»Efficient network expenditure
Anticipated sources of new renewable demand (TWh)Keys to conversion timing
Carbon reduction opportunity
Longer term
Currently
economically
competitive
Shorter term
13
An innovative,
safe and
efficient
generator,
working with
business
customers,
and partners
to decarbonise
New Zealand
»Develop options to
enable the economic
substitution of
thermal generation
with renewables
THERMAL
GENERATION
»Leveraging
capability to
expand C&I
products and
services
»Partner with
customers on
mutually beneficial
decarbonisation
opportunities
CUSTOMER
SOLUTIONS
RENEWABLE
DEVELOPMENT
»Potential to develop Tauhara
-New Zealand’s best new
renewable generation option
»Prepare a range of
development options
for an investment
decision (FID)
»Deploy capital to
enabling works –
including pre-FID
drilling
Strong operational performance will be maintained while options
to grow earnings are being developed
Delivering Wholesale strategy
14
Contact has
demonstrated
proficiency
and capability
over many
decades, as
evidenced by
Wairakei
operating for
more than 60
years
Geothermal production increased by 55% between FY10 and
FY15, when the last unit was commissioned
Capital deployment opportunity
Consented
0.2
2.1
1.8
0.0
0.3
FY14
0.4
FY10
2.8
3.3
FY18
0.2
0.3
2.8
2.3
0.3
2.1
2.5
5.4
+55%
WairakeiTauharaOhaaki
Contact Geothermal generation (TWh)
Tauhara –>250MW consented
»New Zealand’s pre-eminent
scale renewable
development
»Baseloadrenewable
generation option
»Close proximity to the
transmission grid
»Four wells drilled
15
15
Contact’s Customer business
16
Contact’s
Customer
business is a
service-
obsessed
retailer of
electricity, gas
and
broadband for
the mass
market
With a presence in 1 in 5 homes, Contact is the only national
retailer of electricity, gas, LPG* and broadband
Contact Customer snapshot
85%
14%
1%
ElectricityGasBroadband
24%
Meridian
Contact
13%
Genesis
14%
19%
Mercury
18%
TrustPower
4%
Nova
8%
Other
Products by customer connection (%)
Retail electricity market share by customer
connections (%)
Source: Electricity Authority
~480k
connections
Not including ~44,000 Rockgas LPG customers serviced
*Sold through a partnership with Rockgas
17
Our target is
to be the
lowest cost to
serve and
most
advocated for
retailer
Market leading meter to cash processes, with significant IT
systems investment early in the decade an enabler
REDUCING COST TO SERVE
CUSTOMER OPERATING COSTS ($m)
Includes a corporate allocation
BUILDING CUSTOMER ADVOCACY
NET PROMOTER SCORE
3
15
20
FY19 targetFY16FY17FY18
>25
Promoters less detractors
113
110
97
94
FY17FY16FY18FY19 target
Customer capability assessment
18
The retail
electricity
market is
highly
competitive,
resulting in
pressure on
retail margins
CAPABLE
REGULATOR
LOW BARRIERS TO
ENTRY
EASE OF SWITCHING
READILY AVAILABLE
RISK MANAGEMENT
Macro-economic environment
Competition remains intense, political and regulatory scrutiny on
essential goods and services is expected to continue
19
Contact’s
Customer
business has a
solid
foundation on
which to
capture further
scale
efficiencies
»Move to a simple, lean
operating model centred on
the customer experience by
reinventing key customer
experiences and processes
»Capable employees
identifying and driving
performance initiatives with
ownership and
accountability
OPERATING MODEL
»Leverage
advances in
technology to drive
efficiency with
automated
customer
experiences
TECHNOLOGY
BRAND
»Reposition the brand
and reputation from a
strong operational
retailer to a smart
customer solutions
provider
Targeted investments are being made to support the strategy in
FY19, which will enable a $20m reduction in operating costs over the
next few years
Delivering Customer strategy
20
20
Relative earnings, cash flow outlook and
performance against operational metrics
21
Delivery of
strong, stable
operating
cash flows for
distribution to
shareholders
Underpinned by a disciplined and transparent approach to operating and stay-in-
business capital expenditure while investigating ways to optimise our portfolio of assets
79%
15%
6%
WholesaleLPG (disposed December 18)
Customer
SEGMENTAL EARNINGS (%) OF FY18 EBITDAF
Excludes corporate costs of $24m
$505m
480
-60
-70
-65
285
FY20
Key assumptions:
»Hydro generation at 3,900 GWh (mean), geothermal
generation at 3,350 GWh (mean)
»ASX electricity futures and electricity retail margins
stable
»Excludes working capital movements
FY20(f) Operating Free Cash Flow –OFCF ($m)
EBITDAF
Cash interestStay-in-business (SIB) cash capex
Cash tax
Excludes movements in working capital
Performance underpinned by a continuous improvement programme
Focus on delivering cash
22
The focus on
continuous
improvement,
in a period of
flat demand,
has seen
operational
performance
metrics
improve
An efficient and focused business, building capability and
disposing of non-core activities
MAINTAINING FINANCIAL
DISCIPLINE
BUILDING CUSTOMER ADVOCACY
CONTROLLABLE OPEX AND CAPEX COSTS ($m)
NET PROMOTER SCORE
-8
3
15
20
FY18FY15FY19
target
FY17FY16
>25
397
391
357
292
275
FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19 mid-
point target
1.9
3.3
3.2
5.2
0.0
FY15FY16FY18FY171H19
TOTAL RECORDABLE INJURY FREQUENCY RATE
Recordable injuries per million hours worked
SAFE AND ENGAGED
EMPLOYEES
EMPLOYEE ENGAGEMENT (%)
Promoters less detractors
68%
FY15
56%
FY16FY18FY17FY19
target
44%
77%
>82%
Focus on delivering cash
23
ESG credentials
Strong cash
flow generation
Dividend policy
provides
certainty
Shares offer value
when benchmarked
Latent potential
with world-class
geothermal
capability
Why invest in
Contact?
The investment opportunity in our core markets is large, with good
visibility on projects to deliver cash flow growth
Strong investment case
24
A stable
economy and
political system
with a
reputation for
innovation
make New
Zealand an
attractive place
to invest
New Zealand has an open economy that works on free market
principles
Invest in New Zealand
Safe, stable and
secure business
environment
Ease of doing
business
Comparatively low
developed-country
business costs
Simple tax system
Market orientated
economy
Innovative and
entrepreneurial
culture
Policies to promote
skills immigration
Abundant natural
resources
Strong international
transport links
Stable banking
sector with Reserve
Bank supervision
Modern
telecommunications
infrastructure
Most applicable to an investment in Contact
25
Sustainability
is about
integrating
diverse
perspectives
into our
strategyto
ensure long
term value
creation
People
Culture
Economic
Environment
How will this
impact people?
How will this impact
the environment?
How will this impact
our business and
the economy?
How will this impact
our culture?
Sustainability is embedded within our decision making and reporting
processes, it’s who we are
Decision frameworks
Current reporting frameworks
Under development for FY20
Strong ESG credentials
26
Contact has a
track record of
delivering on
ambitious
environmental
targets
Leading the decarbonisation of New Zealand’s energy sector by
taking steps to address emissions from our own operations and
those of our customers
Strong ESG credentials
27
Contact has set
greenhouse gas
emission
reduction
targets in line
with keeping
global warming
below 1.5ºC
Contact has become the first energy company in New Zealand to
have its emission reduction targets approved by the Science
Based Target Initiative (SBTi)
»Emissions intensity targets:
»Reduce Scope 1 GHG emissions 37% per
MWh by 2030 and
»Reduce absolute scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions
by 30%
»Reduce scope 3 GHG emissions from use of
sold products 15% by 2030
2022
2030
»Emissions intensity targets:
»Displace 1PJ of fossil fuel energy with
renewable energy by 2022
Strong ESG credentials
28
High yielding
investment
with a clear
distribution
policy -
backed by a
strong
balance sheet
-provides
certainty to
investors
Distribution policy provides clarity to investors and will drive a strong
capital discipline
Ordinary dividend of
100%
of expected Operating Free
CashFlow*
Distribution policy
39 cps
FY19
Ordinary dividend
=
5.7%
* Operating Cash Flow less stay-in-business capex and net interest costs after adjusting for expected
medium-term stay-in-business capital expenditure, mean hydrology and appropriate Board
consideration of a sustainable financial structure targeting BBB from S&P
At the closing share price
on 18 April 2019 of $6.82
per share
Balance sheet
capacity
69%
31%
Headroom to BBB
Net debt -1H19
2.8x
Assuming FY20(f) EBITDAF of $480m
with gas storage contract not treated as
debt by S&P
Net debt to
EBITDAF
High yield investment
29
A world-class
geothermal
expertise with
consented
brownfield
development
potential
Indicative economics for a generic fully developed 250MW geothermal
power station at Tauhara
$4m
/MW
Estimated total
capital cost
~11 to 12 cps
Operating free
cash flow yield
=
~$1bn
8 to 9%
p.a.*
>25% uplift
from capital deployment into an
asset that we have a 60 year
track record of managing
* Assumes debt funded
at current rates with an
$75-85/MWh wholesale
price
Geothermal potential
Investment staged to substitute thermal generation and/or capture demand growth,
early developments likely lower capital cost
Opportunity
30MW-50MW-85MW-85MW
85MW-85MW-80MW
125MW-125MW
POSSIBLE STAGING OPTIONS
30
Shares offer
value when
benchmarked
against peers
12.1
12.9
16.1
11.4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
0.81.01.21.41.6
Meridian
Genesis
Contact
Net debt ($bn) -31 December 2018
Market Capitalisation ($bn)
-
18 April 2019
Mercury
4.0%
3.7%
GenesisContactMeridianMercury
5.7%
5.6%
1.9
2.5
2.0
3.1
ContactMercuryMeridianGenesis
2.8x
EV to EBITDAF (x)
Bubble size: Enterprise value to FY20
EBITDAF* multiple
Net debt / FY20 EBITDAF (%)
Ordinary dividend yield (%)*
* FY20 multiples: indicative Contact EBITDAF of $480m, peers at consensus. Net debt as reported at 31 December 2018. Share prices
as at 18 April 2019.
Sector leading ordinary dividend yield with significant balance sheet
capacity
S&P limit for BBB ~2.8x (with own thermal
risk management). Lower for renewable
only generators.
Meridian has a capital management
plan in place until FY22 –distributed as
a special dividend (not included)
Offers value on current earnings
Contact: FT19 target, Peers consensus
31
Contact is the
only listed
generator in
New Zealand
without a
majority
shareholder
Daily trade by value –last 6 months
($m/day)
Open share register provides significantly more liquidity and
flexibility relative to government owned peers
9.2
2.5
5.2
1.2
MeridianContactMercuryGenesis
Deep and liquid register
65%
12%
12%
New Zealand
3%
UK
Australia
North America
Rest of Europe
4%
4%
Asia
0%
Rest of World
18%
14%
14%
49%
1 -2%
0%
5%
>5%
4 -5%
<1%
3 -4%
2 -3%
Sum of register by % of issued share capital holding
Holder by region (%)
»35% of
register is
held
outside of
New
Zealand
»No
holders
above 5%
of issued
share
capital
32
Focus on
optimising
cash flow
generation,
disposal of
non-core
assets has
resulted in
strong
shareholder
returns
Returns to shareholders improving as operational focus enabled
ordinary dividend increases which resonated in a weaker forward
interest rate environment
Delivering for shareholders
DISTRIBUTIONS ($m)
81
7979
93
115
110
107107
136
165
367
100
286
280
FY17FY19
target
FY18FY15
186
FY16
558
229
Special dividend
BuybackFinal dividend
Interim dividend
Declared or target
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
Apr-18Jun-18Aug-18Oct-18Dec-18Feb-19
ContactNZX 50
12 MONTH SHARE PRICE VS NZX50
Announced
change to
dividend policy
(+4 cps)
Completed the
sale of
Rockgas LPG
Rebased to 100
33
33
New Zealand electricity market
34
“New Zealand
serves as a
model for
effective
energy markets
and secure
power system
operation”
International Energy
Agency (IEA)
New Zealand 2017
Review
New Zealand enjoys a reliable, affordable and
environmentally sustainable electricity system
New Zealand electricity market
5
Major
generators
1
State-owned
national
transmission
grid operator
29
Distribution
businesses
44
Retailers
(50 brands)
2.1
Million
consumers
Regulated monopoliesCompetitive
Competitive
Spot
electricity
pool
35
While demand
is at a similar
level to 2008,
there have
been
encouraging
signs of
demand
growth since
2013
Despite the continued energy efficiency in the residential
market
Demand
Source: EMI
National electricity demand (TWh)
Annual consumption per household (kWh)
Source: MBIE electricity statistics
40.1
40.6
20132014
41.3
40.7
20152016
41.2
2017
41.2
2018
0.5%
7,402
7,285
7,314
7,107
7,088
7,056
201820152017201320142016
-1.0%
»Forestry/agriculture, food
processing and commercial
have grown since the GFC
»This growth has been offset
by ongoing reductions in
demand from the pulp and
paper sector as well as
residential efficiency
Agriculture
6%
Residential
31%
Industrial
37%
Commercial
24%
Electricity consumption breakdown
Source: MBIEelectricity statistics
36
Hydro storage is
crucial, but limited;
-maximum
controlled
storage of ~4
TWh spread
across four key
catchments
-~10% of annual
demand of 41
TWh
Hydro schemes are mostly run-of-river with rainfall into key
catchments weighted to summer, while demand is winter biased
Supply fundamentals
Source: NZX hydro
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Jan-
13
2,874 GWh
Jan-
10
Jan-
15
Jan-
11
Jan-
16
Jan-
12
Jan-
17
Jan-
14
Jan-
18
Jan-
19
CluthaWaitakiManapouri Taupo
Average annual generation of
3,900 GWh
Max storage of ~300 GWh
Summer inflows
Wet to dry range of 1,000 GWh
Average annual generation of
7,000 GWh
Max storage of~2,500 GWh
Shared between Genesis
(Lake Tekapo) and Meridian
(all lakes downstream of Lake
Tekapo)
Summer inflows
Wet to dry range of 3,000
GWh
Average annual generation of
4,800 GWh
Max storage of ~800 GWh
Highest inflow intra year
volatility of all catchments
Wet to dry range of 2,000 GWh
Average annual generation of
4,000 GWh
Max storage of ~500 GWh
Winter inflows
Wet to dry range of 1,300 GWh
South Island
North Island
National controlled storage (GWh)
37
Thermal
generation is
currently the
most
economic
swing fuel to
manage the
seasonal
supply and
demand
mismatch
Thermal generation sets the opportunity cost of renewables, this
includes stored water
to
5TWh
per annum of seasonal
renewables firming required
10TWh
43
10
5
7
2
2
21
5
WindMinimum
thermal
2018
generation
(including
losses)
GeothermalMinimum
hydro
Co-
generation
Maximum
thermal
Hydro
swing
-5
National annual supply (TWh)
Major thermal
generators
Sources of flexibility
Contact –gas
and diesel with
15 year access
to gas storage
Genesis –coal
and gas
Nova/Todd
Energy –gas
“Dry year”:
Genesis’s coal stock
pile
Daily and seasonal:
Gas Storage
“Wet year”: Gas
Storage
Winter
Peaks/Outages:
Diesel
Flexible thermal production is required
Supply fundamentals
38
The market
quickly
responds to
changes in
supply and
demand by
sending price
signals
In addition to managing the supply and demand balance, thermal fuel
supply shocks impact the market in the short-term
Wholesale pricing
Jan-16Jan-18
0
Jan-08
50
Jan-10Jan-12
200
Jan-14Jan-20
100
150
300
$79/MWh
Aluminium
Short-term external factors that can
influence the market
Long-dated futures (>12 months)
Short-dated futures (<12 months)
Monthly average spot price
Wholesale and futures electricity pricing ($/MWh)
Source: EMI wholesale pricing
Average spot
price
Wholesale
electricity
prices
Long-term pricing is linked to the long-run
marginal costs of new renewable projects
to meet demand plus costs associated with
firming renewable intermittency
39
39
The market in action –1H19
40
National electricity demand flat on 1H18
Source: EMI, Contact
NATIONAL ELECTRICITY DEMAND (TWh)
2.52.52.52.5
2.6
5.2
5.4
5.0
5.3
5.0
13.3
13.4
13.3
13.4
13.4
1H151H161H181H171H19
21.0
21.3
20.8
21.2
21.0
0%
North IslandNZASSouth Island (ex NZAS)
REGIONAL CHANGE (%) 1H19 vs 1H18
»
The NZAS gradual re-commissioning of the 4th potline (50MW) from
October 2018, resulted in a 4% increase in electricity consumption. Once
fully operational national demand will increase by ~1% (NZAS demand
will be up ~17%)
»
South Island irrigation related demand was significantly lower than 1H18
»
Residential demand increased by 2% per customeron lower average
temperatures
Source: EMI, Contact
Demand at key South
Island irrigation nodes
reverted to historical
averages after a dry
1H18
0%
0%
1%
(1%)
1%
(1%)
(17%)
(8%)
0%
1%
(3%)
1%
0%
1H19 demand
41
-1,000
-600
-200
200
600
1,000
Jul-17Sep-17Nov-17Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18
Variance to mean (GWh)
North Island storageSouth Island storage
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Jun-17Aug-17Oct-17Dec-17Feb-18Apr-18Jun-18Aug-18Oct-18Dec-18
Mean storageActual storage
National storage rising in advance of winter
SOUTH ISLAND INFLOWS NORMALISED FROM A
DRY 1H18
»
An acute drought in key South Island catchments between October and
December 2017 was broken in February 2018 when cyclones Fehi and
Geta made landfall. This contributed to above mean national storage at
the start of winter 2018
»
Extreme November 2018 rainfall added ~700GWh to national storage over
a two week period after the traditional spring inflows failed to materialise
NATIONAL HYDRO STORAGE AGAINST MEAN STORAGE (GWh)
AVERAGE MONTHLY STORAGE VS MEAN BY ISLAND (GWh)
MONTHLY NATIONAL RAINFALL
As a percentage of 1981 –2010 monthly normal (source: NIWA)
400%
200%
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
10%
July August September October November December
1H18
1H19
of normal
rainfall
Mean storage 1926 –2016 (source: NZX hydro)
Mean storage 1926 –2016 (source: NZX hydro)
1H191H18
1H19 supply
42
Wholesale spot prices responded to fuel scarcity
»
While volatile hydrology is a well-known feature of electricity
supply in New Zealand, normally reliable gas production was
significantly constrained in 1H19 impacting generation from
thermal assets
»
Remedial work to the Pohokura gas field’s offshore pipeline
and platform, which was completed in December 2018,
ended more than 200 days of constrained gas supply
across two separate outages. Restricted production from
Pohokura is expected to continue over 2H19
»
Gas availability should improve as current constraints are
unlocked
»
The elevated spot price environment has led to increases in short-
dated forwards (i.e. for contracts maturing less than six months
ahead)
»
Long-dated forward prices (1 February 19: $88.3/MWh) have
increased by over $12.9/MWh (or over 17 per cent) in the last six
months
20
120
220
320
JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun
FY13 - FY19 rangeFY13 - FY19 averageFY19FY18
MONTHLY WHOLESALE SPOT ELECTRICITY PRICES ($/MWh)
Generation weighted (source: Electricity Authority –Wholesale electricity prices)
ELECTRICITY FORWARD PRICE CURVES ($/MWh)
20
120
220
320
Jul-17Sep-17Nov-17Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18
7-day simple moving average spot priceLong-dated futures
Short-dated futures
Generation weighted (source: Electricity Authority –Wholesale electricity prices)
HYDRO STORAGE LEVELS AND THERMAL FUEL
CONSTRAINTS INCREASED NEAR TERM PRICES
1H19 wholesale pricing
43
43
Appendix -1H19 Results extracts
44
Profit of $276m, supported by proceeds from
portfolio changes
58
47
48
97
99
11
61
20
Discontinued
operation
Discontinued
operations
Profit on
continuing
operations
177
Profit on
continuing
operations
1
Items
excluded
from
underlying
1H18
underlying
profit
EBITDAF
4
Depreciation
and
amortisation
4
Net interest
costs
1H19 profitTax1H19
underlying
profit
2
Items
excluded
from
underlying
1H18 profit
276
+49
STATUTORY PROFIT ($m)
PROFIT ON CONTINUING OPERATIONS UP BY 111% AS EBITDAF FROM CONTINUING OPERATIONS
INCREASED BY $61m
45
EBITDAF from continuing operations up by $61m
12
7
39
1H191H18Generation
costs
Contracted
revenue
Trading /
merchant
revenue
185
243
+58
2
1
2
1
1
Gas
gross
margin
1H18Electricity
gross
margin
Energy
costs
(inc.
carbon)
Other
income
Cost to
serve
1H19
45
48
+3
1
13
Labour1H18Staff
incentives
1H19
1
13
0
WHOLESALE EBITDAF ($m)
CUSTOMER EBITDAF ($m)
CORPORATE / UNALLOCATED ($m)
Continuing business performance
46
Generation costs
Electricity generated or acquired
(GWh)
1,726
1,652
1,635
2,045
1,016
887
385
171
4,762
Thermal
1H18
Acquired
1H19
Hydro
Geothermal
4,754
Renewable generation up 10% on 1H18, costs down by $12m
81
57
81
50
60
52
59
49
35
35
24
25
25
24
10
Generation
type
1
6
6
Cost typeGeneration
type
Cost type
Acquired
Thermal
Renewable
164
176176
164
-12
1H181H19
Electricity generated or acquired ($m)
Gas storage
Other operating costs
Electricity and gas transmission and levies
Carbon costs
Gas and diesel
»
Hydro generation was up 410 GWh (25%) as
hydro generation returned to mean after a dry
1H18, geothermal lower on planned Wairakei
outage
»
Higher renewable production required less
thermal generation (+$5m) and less acquired
generation (+$21m)
»
This was offset by higher unit input costs for
gas, diesel and carbon (-$4m), higher electricity
and gas transmission and gas storage costs (-
$4m) and a higher price for the acquired
generation (-$10m)
»
Prioritisation of more efficient thermal plant and
lower labour costs saw efficiency gains of $4m
»
Renewable costs are essentially fixed providing
leverage to increased hydro generation
47
159
159
138
126
42
53
14
16
2
1H191H18
362
7
355
+7
2,069 GWh
$76.9 / MWh
Wholesale contracted revenue
Contracted revenue ($m)
Energy prices higher on the prior period, reduced exposure to fixed price sales and redirected
load to higher priced channels
1,736 GWh
$79.6 / MWh
658 GWh
$63.4 / MWh
(52 GWh)
+$1.9 / MWh
(164 GWh)
+$0.7 / MWh
+50 GWh
+$11.2 / MWh
Other net income
Steam sales
CFD salesCustomer sales
C&I netback
»
Fixed price variable volume electricity sales to Customer
and C&I customers were 216 GWh (4%) lower than
1H18 (-$16m) which was partially offset by higher prices
(+$4m)
»
Increased CFD sales to support NZAS, which was up by
22GWh contributed to higher CFD electricity sales in
1H19 (+$1m). Higher pricing was achieved on both end-
user CFDs (+$2m) and short-term CFD sales to other
generators (+$8m)
»
Steam revenue was $2m higher on 1H18 on a 6%
increase in volumes and a higher tariff which reflected
rising carbon prices
»
Other income was up by $5m on 1H18, predominantly
due to improvements made to trading activity which
limited exposure to volatile markets
48
Wholesale trading and merchant revenue
TRADING EBITDAF ($m)
Contact was able to generate to support the market during higher priced periods in 1H19
33
78
-23
-33
6
-4
1H181H19
0
45
+39
357
459
-58
4,244
-4,355
4,355
1H18
-4,244
-1
458
1H19
299
($64.6 / MWh)
LONG / SHORT POSITION (GWh)
$92.9 / MWh
$170.5 / MWh
($114.6 / MWh)
6.2%
($5.2 / MWh)
6.7%
($7.7 / MWh)
Spot sales and buy CFD settlement
Merchant salesPool purchases
Spot purchases and sell CFD settlement
»
Contact’s flexible generation portfolio
and access to stored gas saw a 102
GWh increase in merchant sales
volumes (+$17m) to support the
market during the recent higher priced
periods as the spot price responded to
gas field outages and lower national
hydro storage levels. The price
received for this “long” generation was
up by $77/MWh (+$28m)
»
Strong generation volumes and risk
management saw limited price
exposure to unhedged spot market
purchases
»
LWAP/GWAP losses only increased by
0.5% but higher spot prices saw the
absolute cost increase by $10m to
$33m
TRADING REVENUE
Merchant sales: short-term sales channel
available when the spot prices exceed the
opportunity cost on Contact generation
Pool purchase: short-term opportunistic
purchases from the spot electricity market
when better value than alternatives
(adjusted for volatility and volume)
LWAP / GWAP losses: locational price
differences between where electricity is
generated and purchased
49
Customer business performance
458
455
39
39
2
3
1H181H19
499
497
-2
1,907 GWh
$240.4 / MWh
452 GWh
$85.4 / MWh
Revenue ($m)
EBITDAF ($m)
233
236
19
19
-159-159
-41
-40
-1
-8
Electricity
2
-1
-10
1H181H19
48
3
Gas
Other income
45
+3
(33 GWh)
+$2.2 / MWh
+33 GWh
($4.5 / MWh)
EBITDAF up by $3m on higher tariff, lower network costs and a reduction in cost to serve
Revenue less
networkcosts
$122.3 / MWh
Other income
Gas
Electricity
»
Electricity sales volume down 33 GWh due to
lower customers numbers, offset by higher gas
sales to SME customers
»
Intense competition and the decision not to
renew 2,700 SME ICPs reduced average
customer connections
»
Customer numbers stable over the past three
months with new propositions in market.
Broadband offer attractive.
»
Electricity gross margin up on successful
customer retentions and corrections to historical
pricing anomalies
»
Broadband and LPG services revenue
leverages existing cost infrastructure
»
Energy costs increased, following higher ASX
prices and higher gas and carbon costs
»
Other operating expenses favourable $1m despite
investment in digital, brand and new products
($83.5 / MWh)
+$3.1 / MWh
($1.4 / MWh)
Gas costs
Electricity costsCarbon costs
Other operating expenses
50
Cost efficiency programme continues to deliver
controllable cost reduction
OTHER OPERATING COSTS ($m)
8
7
13
13
52
50
41
40
1H18
114
1H19
110
-4
Wholesale
Customer
Corporate
LPG
2
6
4
1H18Asset
disposals
110
Cost and
efficiency
programme
1H18
rebased for
the effect
of the
disposals
1H19
operating
costs
before
incentives
Staff
incentives
1H19
112
114
106
»
Efficiency programme delivers $6m
operating cost reduction in 1H19,
against $8m target for FY19
»
Wholesale and corporate labour costs
down on reduced FTE
»
ICT costs lower after the move to the
cloud and efficiency initiatives
»
Further reduction in bad debt
»
Customer investment in brand and
digital accommodated
»
On target for guided FY20 reductions
»
Staff incentives up on improvement to
financial performance on 1H18
OTHER OPERATING COST MOVEMENT ($m)
CONTROLLABLE OPEX ($m)
263
247
243
223
205
190
FY20 targetFY15FY16FY17FY18FY19 target
-6%
5% reduction in like for
like other operating costs
51
Cash flow and capital expenditure
128
102
69
FY18FY16FY17
60 -65
FY19 target
»
EBITDAF up on strong Wholesale performance
»
Working capital changes up by $18m on improved receivables collections
»
Cash tax up in line with increasing earnings and balancing payments from prior
periods
»
Capital expenditure on continuing operations of $27m in 1H19
6 months
ended
31
December
2018
6 months
ended
31 December
2017
Comparison against
1H18
EBITDAF
$291m$236m
↑
$55m
Workingcapital changes
$10m($8m)
↑
$18m
Taxand interest paid
($77m)($60m)
↓
($17m)
SIBCapital
($29m)($35m)
↑
($6m)
Other non cash movements
$9m$8m
↑
$1m
Operating free cash flow
2
$203m$141m
↑
$62m
Operating free cash flow per share
2
28.3 cps19.7 cps
↑
8.6 cps
Proceeds from saleof assets/operations
$438m-
↑
$438
Free cash flow
$641m$141m
↑
$500m
SIB CAPEX ($m)
6
2
Historic
2
Revision to
guidance
Current
65
75
-10
LONG RUN AVERAGE CAPEX ($m)
Efficiency improvementsAGS
Rockgas
10
15
40
65
Customer
Wholesale -Maintanence
Wholesale -TCC and drilling
Excludes capex associated with Wairakei extension post 2026
OPERATING CASH FLOW UP BY $62m ON HIGHER EBITDAF, FAVOURABLE WORKING CAPITAL
MOVEMENTS AND LOWER INTEREST AND CAPEX COSTS
52
Strong free cash flow directed to strengthening the
balance sheet
141
107
203
136
438
298
7
4
1
Uses
142
Sources
10
Sources
14
207
Uses
142
641641
Gas sale and repurchase
Shares isued
OFCF
Net sales proceeds
Growth investment
Increase in cash
Debt repayment
Dividends paid
236
291
-60
-77
-35
-29
203
8
-8
141
1H191H18
10
8
EBITDAF
Working capital changes
Interest and tax
Other non cash movements
SIB cash capex
OPERATING FREE CASH FLOW –OFCF ($m)
SOURCES AND USES OF CASH ($M)
1H181H19
EBITDAF TO CASH CONVERSION INCREASED TO 70% IN 1H19 FROM 60% IN 1H18
53
Strong balance sheet
222
50
70
150
100
153
224
150
175
50
50
7
160
7
FY19FY20
7
FY21FY22
77
FY23
7
FY24
22
FY25
-29
229
207
252
207
157
245
»
Face value of net borrowings reduced by $514m to $931m following the completion of the asset
sales. Net debt has reduced by $767m since the end of FY15. Gearing reduced to 29.7% at 31
December 2018, down from 35.4% at 30 June 2018
»
$222m retail bond maturing in May 2019 being partly refinanced
»
Weighted average interest rate increased by 42bp on FY18
»
Contact continues to target a credit rating of BBB (net debt / EBITDAF <2.8x)
-210
27
-12
-4
1,539
1,626
1,677
1,698
1,401
FY15FY14
25
23
1,608
-5
1,504
FY16
41
-6
FY17
38
1,410
-3
FY18
26
1,115
1H19
1,416
1,445
931
FY16
7.55%
FY17FY14
6.06%
5.25%
5.53%
FY15
5.01%
FY18
5.43%
1H19
ROBUST TREASURY MANAGEMENT ENSURES ACCESS TO DIVERSE FUNDING SOURCES
CLOSING NET DEBT ($m)
INTEREST RATE (%)
NET DEBT TO EBITDAF (x)
BORROWING MATURITIES ($m)
1,372
1,425
1,672
1,593
1,5061,259
Average net debt ($m)
Weighed average interest rate on average net debt
Face value of borrowings less cash
USPPUndrawn bank facilitiesDomesticNEXI
Includes S&P adjustments (AGS currently treated as a lease)
Lease obligationsBorrowingsCash on hand
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.0
2.7
2.5
2.6
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.1
2.2
FY18FY14FY17FY16FY15FY19
forecast
SmoothedSnapshot
Average tenor of 3.6 years as at 31 December 2018
54
Guidance affirmed
FY19 (f)
Changeto prior
guidance
Other operating costs$200–210m
-
Depreciation and amortisation$200 –205m
Rangenarrowed
on completion of
disposals
Net interest (accounting)$75–80m
Rangenarrowed
on completion of
disposals
Cash interest$70 –75m
Newguidance
added
Stay in business capital
expenditure (accounting)
$65 –75m
-
Target ordinary dividend per
share
39 cps
up4cps (+11%)
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABILITY TO DELIVER PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENTS
480
-60
-70
-65
FY20
285
Key assumptions:
»Hydro generation at 3,900 GWh (mean), geothermal
generation at 3,350 GWh (average)
»ASX electricity futures and electricity retail margins stable
»Excludes working capital movements
FY20 OFCF ($m)
EBITDAF
Cash interestSIB cash capex
Cash tax
FY20 (f)
Changeto prior
guidance
$185–195m
-
$195 –205m
-
$60 –65m
-
$55 –60m
Newguidance
added
$60 –65m
-
39 cps
Newguidance
added
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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