Contact Energy Limited logo

Investor Presentation

Investor Presentation23 April 2019CENUtilities

1
International roadshow

Stockholm, Frankfurt, Zurich, London

April 2019

Macquarie Australian Conference

Sydney, 1

st

May 2019

2
Disclaimer and important information

This presentation may contain projections or forward-looking statements regarding a variety of items. Such forward-

looking statements are based upon current expectations and involve risks and uncertainties.

Actual results may differ materially from those stated in any forward-looking statement based on a number of important

factors and risks.

Although management may indicate and believe that the assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements are

reasonable, any of the assumptions could prove inaccurate or incorrect and, therefore, there can be no assurance that the

results contemplated in the forward-looking statements will be realised.

EBITDAF, underlying profit, free cash flow and operating free cash flow are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting

practice) measures. Information regarding the usefulness, calculation and reconciliation of these measures is provided in

the supporting material.

Furthermore, while all reasonable care has been taken in compiling this presentation, Contact accepts no responsibility for

any errors or omissions.

This presentation does not constitute investment advice.

Numbers in the presentation have not all been rounded and might not appear to add.

All logos and brands are property of their respective owners. All company, product and service names used in this

presentation are for identification purposes only.

All references to $ are New Zealand dollars

3
Dennis Barnes

Chief Executive Officer

Dennis Barnes has been Chief Executive Officer of Contact since

2011. Dennis has completed Contact’s $2bn investment programme

in renewable energy, flexible generation and companywide systems.

Over his time at Contact Dennis has provided industry leadership on

topics as wide ranging as wholesale electricity market structures and

health and safety reform.

During 2015, Dennis successfully led Contact as its majority

shareholder exited and Contact diversified its shareholding base and

listed on the ASX.

Prior to joining Contact, he was General Manager Energy Risk

Management at Origin Energy where he oversaw Origin's significant

and expanding operations in wholesale markets. Prior to Origin,

Dennis held a number of positions operating in international energy

markets; including managerial roles at Scottish and English electricity

companies. Dennis' career began as a metallurgist with Alcan and he

holds a BSc(Hons), GradDip (Marketing) and MBA.

4
Agenda

1

Contact in context

5 -22

23 -32

2

Why invest in Contact

33 -42

3

New Zealand electricity market

4

Appendix –1H19 results extracts

43 -54

5
5

Contact’s Wholesale business

6
Contact is an

owner and

operator of

low-cost, long-

life renewable

generation

assets with

consented

geothermal

development

options

82%52 + 1

RENEWABLE

GENERATION

GEOTHERMAL

STATIONS

HYDRO

STATIONS /

CONTROLLED

STORAGE

LAKE

415 years8.6TWh

THERMAL

STATIONS

CONTRACT

FOR GAS

STORAGE

FY18

GENERATION

Contact owns and operates thermal plant, which is used to manage

the risks associated with hydro intermittency

Contact Wholesale snapshot

7
Contact’s

geothermal

operations are

significant in a

global context

with consents

to expand

production by

~60%

Underpinning these operations is a world class geothermal

capability

»Operational experience on the world’s second longest electricity

producing geothermal field (Wairakei -1958)

»Capability in construction management, consenting and stakeholder

engagement

»We have maintained a dedicated, internationally-recognised, subsurface

team to:

»Lower the cost of operations significantly –comfortably New

Zealand’s lowest cost geothermal operator

»Investigate options to extend and improve generation at Wairakei

at the 2026 resource consent renewal

»Provide geothermal consultancy services internationally

Renewable operations

Most recent developments

431MW Geothermal

capacity

752MW Hydro

capacity

Te Mihi (2014)

166MW

Te Huka (2010)

28MW

Bioreactor (2012)

Wholesale capability assessment

20.3

17.9

FY15FY18

-4%

Operating and stay-in-business

capital cost of geothermal

production ($/MWh)

8
New Zealand

is in the early

stages of a

decades-long

transformation

from reliance

on fossil fuels

to renewable

electricity

CLIMATE CHANGE

GOVERNMENT POLICY

QUALITY, LONG LIFE

RENEWABLE ASSETS

HISTORICALLY LOW

COST OF CAPITAL

This transformation is being driven by macro economic

fundamentals

Macro-economic environment

9
Under review

Transport

policies

Ban on

offshore oil

and gas

exploration

Phase out

coal for

electricity

generation

by 2030¹

Genesis’

intention to

exit coal by

2030

Meridian’s

current

supply

contract with

Tiwai ends

2030

Net zero

carbon

emissions for

New Zealand

by 2050

Productivity

Commission

review into

the transition

to a Low

Carbon

Economy

Society is

demanding

action on

climate

change, with

clear progress

expected

The New Zealand regulatory framework is being adapted to deliver

on this societal imperative

Announced

Climate change and regulation

¹ A commitment made by the Government when New Zealand joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance.

Interim

Climate

Change

Committee

(ICCC)

Climate

Commission

Emission

Trading

Scheme

(ETS) review

Electricity

Pricing

Review

(EPR)

10
New Zealand

has added

subsidy-free

renewable

generation in

a period of flat

demand,

displacing

fossil fuels

Electricity generation mix for 2018 (%)

Source: MBIE electricity statistics

New Zealand electricity supply mix 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018

61%

5%

17%

12%

3%

2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

3%

7%

26%

2006

21%

4%

16%

2010

4%

2014

12%

2018

With world-class geothermal and wind resources consented

for development

82%

renewable

Quality, long-life renewable assets

HydroWindCoalGasGeothermalOther

11
Meaningful

reductions in

carbon

emissions are

possible with

renewable

electricity

displacing

carbon

intensive fuels

Enabled by falling renewable technology costs and rising thermal

fuel costs

Sources: Productivity Commission's Low Emissions Economy Issues Paper,

August 2017 and New Zealand's Action on Climate Change, September 2016

WITH HIGH

RENEWABLE

PENETRATION,

ELECTRICITY IS

THE SOLUTION

TO REDUCING

CARBON

EMISSIONS, NOT

THE PROBLEM

Carbon reduction opportunity

12
It is clear that

decarbonisation

will drive

demand

growth,

however the

timing is

currently

unclear

Demand at 2008 levels means investment discipline is important

36

55

5

7

3

5

Dairy sector

electrification

Electric

vehicles

Other

process heat

electrification

Renewable

electricity -

Today

Increase to

95%

renewables

Renewable

electricity -

post 2030

+56%

»Thermal availability and fuel

costs

»Carbon prices

»Investment in domestic

gas production

»Capital investment cycles

»Thermal plant life

extensions

»New electric boilers

replacing end of life

equipment

»Electric vehicle uptake

»Renewable technology costs

»Efficient network expenditure

Anticipated sources of new renewable demand (TWh)Keys to conversion timing

Carbon reduction opportunity

Longer term

Currently

economically

competitive

Shorter term

13
An innovative,

safe and

efficient

generator,

working with

business

customers,

and partners

to decarbonise

New Zealand

»Develop options to

enable the economic

substitution of

thermal generation

with renewables

THERMAL

GENERATION

»Leveraging

capability to

expand C&I

products and

services

»Partner with

customers on

mutually beneficial

decarbonisation

opportunities

CUSTOMER

SOLUTIONS

RENEWABLE

DEVELOPMENT

»Potential to develop Tauhara

-New Zealand’s best new

renewable generation option

»Prepare a range of

development options

for an investment

decision (FID)

»Deploy capital to

enabling works –

including pre-FID

drilling

Strong operational performance will be maintained while options

to grow earnings are being developed

Delivering Wholesale strategy

14
Contact has

demonstrated

proficiency

and capability

over many

decades, as

evidenced by

Wairakei

operating for

more than 60

years

Geothermal production increased by 55% between FY10 and

FY15, when the last unit was commissioned

Capital deployment opportunity

Consented

0.2

2.1

1.8

0.0

0.3

FY14

0.4

FY10

2.8

3.3

FY18

0.2

0.3

2.8

2.3

0.3

2.1

2.5

5.4

+55%

WairakeiTauharaOhaaki

Contact Geothermal generation (TWh)

Tauhara –>250MW consented

»New Zealand’s pre-eminent

scale renewable

development

»Baseloadrenewable

generation option

»Close proximity to the

transmission grid

»Four wells drilled

15
15

Contact’s Customer business

16
Contact’s

Customer

business is a

service-

obsessed

retailer of

electricity, gas

and

broadband for

the mass

market

With a presence in 1 in 5 homes, Contact is the only national

retailer of electricity, gas, LPG* and broadband

Contact Customer snapshot

85%

14%

1%

ElectricityGasBroadband

24%

Meridian

Contact

13%

Genesis

14%

19%

Mercury

18%

TrustPower

4%

Nova

8%

Other

Products by customer connection (%)

Retail electricity market share by customer

connections (%)

Source: Electricity Authority

~480k

connections

Not including ~44,000 Rockgas LPG customers serviced

*Sold through a partnership with Rockgas

17
Our target is

to be the

lowest cost to

serve and

most

advocated for

retailer

Market leading meter to cash processes, with significant IT

systems investment early in the decade an enabler

REDUCING COST TO SERVE

CUSTOMER OPERATING COSTS ($m)

Includes a corporate allocation

BUILDING CUSTOMER ADVOCACY

NET PROMOTER SCORE

3

15

20

FY19 targetFY16FY17FY18

>25

Promoters less detractors

113

110

97

94

FY17FY16FY18FY19 target

Customer capability assessment

18
The retail

electricity

market is

highly

competitive,

resulting in

pressure on

retail margins

CAPABLE

REGULATOR

LOW BARRIERS TO

ENTRY

EASE OF SWITCHING

READILY AVAILABLE

RISK MANAGEMENT

Macro-economic environment

Competition remains intense, political and regulatory scrutiny on

essential goods and services is expected to continue

19
Contact’s

Customer

business has a

solid

foundation on

which to

capture further

scale

efficiencies

»Move to a simple, lean

operating model centred on

the customer experience by

reinventing key customer

experiences and processes

»Capable employees

identifying and driving

performance initiatives with

ownership and

accountability

OPERATING MODEL

»Leverage

advances in

technology to drive

efficiency with

automated

customer

experiences

TECHNOLOGY

BRAND

»Reposition the brand

and reputation from a

strong operational

retailer to a smart

customer solutions

provider

Targeted investments are being made to support the strategy in

FY19, which will enable a $20m reduction in operating costs over the

next few years

Delivering Customer strategy

20
20

Relative earnings, cash flow outlook and

performance against operational metrics

21
Delivery of

strong, stable

operating

cash flows for

distribution to

shareholders

Underpinned by a disciplined and transparent approach to operating and stay-in-

business capital expenditure while investigating ways to optimise our portfolio of assets

79%

15%

6%

WholesaleLPG (disposed December 18)

Customer

SEGMENTAL EARNINGS (%) OF FY18 EBITDAF

Excludes corporate costs of $24m

$505m

480

-60

-70

-65

285

FY20

Key assumptions:

»Hydro generation at 3,900 GWh (mean), geothermal

generation at 3,350 GWh (mean)

»ASX electricity futures and electricity retail margins

stable

»Excludes working capital movements

FY20(f) Operating Free Cash Flow –OFCF ($m)

EBITDAF

Cash interestStay-in-business (SIB) cash capex

Cash tax

Excludes movements in working capital

Performance underpinned by a continuous improvement programme

Focus on delivering cash

22
The focus on

continuous

improvement,

in a period of

flat demand,

has seen

operational

performance

metrics

improve

An efficient and focused business, building capability and

disposing of non-core activities

MAINTAINING FINANCIAL

DISCIPLINE

BUILDING CUSTOMER ADVOCACY

CONTROLLABLE OPEX AND CAPEX COSTS ($m)

NET PROMOTER SCORE

-8

3

15

20

FY18FY15FY19

target

FY17FY16

>25

397

391

357

292

275

FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19 mid-

point target

1.9

3.3

3.2

5.2

0.0

FY15FY16FY18FY171H19

TOTAL RECORDABLE INJURY FREQUENCY RATE

Recordable injuries per million hours worked

SAFE AND ENGAGED

EMPLOYEES

EMPLOYEE ENGAGEMENT (%)

Promoters less detractors

68%

FY15

56%

FY16FY18FY17FY19

target

44%

77%

>82%

Focus on delivering cash

23
ESG credentials

Strong cash

flow generation

Dividend policy

provides

certainty

Shares offer value

when benchmarked

Latent potential

with world-class

geothermal

capability

Why invest in

Contact?

The investment opportunity in our core markets is large, with good

visibility on projects to deliver cash flow growth

Strong investment case

24
A stable

economy and

political system

with a

reputation for

innovation

make New

Zealand an

attractive place

to invest

New Zealand has an open economy that works on free market

principles

Invest in New Zealand

Safe, stable and

secure business

environment

Ease of doing

business

Comparatively low

developed-country

business costs

Simple tax system

Market orientated

economy

Innovative and

entrepreneurial

culture

Policies to promote

skills immigration

Abundant natural

resources

Strong international

transport links

Stable banking

sector with Reserve

Bank supervision

Modern

telecommunications

infrastructure

Most applicable to an investment in Contact

25
Sustainability

is about

integrating

diverse

perspectives

into our

strategyto

ensure long

term value

creation

People

Culture

Economic

Environment

How will this

impact people?

How will this impact

the environment?

How will this impact

our business and

the economy?

How will this impact

our culture?

Sustainability is embedded within our decision making and reporting

processes, it’s who we are

Decision frameworks

Current reporting frameworks

Under development for FY20

Strong ESG credentials

26
Contact has a

track record of

delivering on

ambitious

environmental

targets

Leading the decarbonisation of New Zealand’s energy sector by

taking steps to address emissions from our own operations and

those of our customers

Strong ESG credentials

27
Contact has set

greenhouse gas

emission

reduction

targets in line

with keeping

global warming

below 1.5ºC

Contact has become the first energy company in New Zealand to

have its emission reduction targets approved by the Science

Based Target Initiative (SBTi)

»Emissions intensity targets:

»Reduce Scope 1 GHG emissions 37% per

MWh by 2030 and

»Reduce absolute scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions

by 30%

»Reduce scope 3 GHG emissions from use of

sold products 15% by 2030

2022

2030

»Emissions intensity targets:

»Displace 1PJ of fossil fuel energy with

renewable energy by 2022

Strong ESG credentials

28
High yielding

investment

with a clear

distribution

policy -

backed by a

strong

balance sheet

-provides

certainty to

investors

Distribution policy provides clarity to investors and will drive a strong

capital discipline

Ordinary dividend of

100%

of expected Operating Free

CashFlow*

Distribution policy

39 cps

FY19

Ordinary dividend

=

5.7%

* Operating Cash Flow less stay-in-business capex and net interest costs after adjusting for expected

medium-term stay-in-business capital expenditure, mean hydrology and appropriate Board

consideration of a sustainable financial structure targeting BBB from S&P

At the closing share price

on 18 April 2019 of $6.82

per share

Balance sheet

capacity

69%

31%

Headroom to BBB

Net debt -1H19

2.8x

Assuming FY20(f) EBITDAF of $480m

with gas storage contract not treated as

debt by S&P

Net debt to

EBITDAF

High yield investment

29
A world-class

geothermal

expertise with

consented

brownfield

development

potential

Indicative economics for a generic fully developed 250MW geothermal

power station at Tauhara

$4m

/MW

Estimated total

capital cost

~11 to 12 cps

Operating free

cash flow yield

=

~$1bn

8 to 9%

p.a.*

>25% uplift

from capital deployment into an

asset that we have a 60 year

track record of managing

* Assumes debt funded

at current rates with an

$75-85/MWh wholesale

price

Geothermal potential

Investment staged to substitute thermal generation and/or capture demand growth,

early developments likely lower capital cost

Opportunity

30MW-50MW-85MW-85MW

85MW-85MW-80MW

125MW-125MW

POSSIBLE STAGING OPTIONS

30
Shares offer

value when

benchmarked

against peers

12.1

12.9

16.1

11.4

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

0.81.01.21.41.6

Meridian

Genesis

Contact

Net debt ($bn) -31 December 2018

Market Capitalisation ($bn)

-

18 April 2019

Mercury

4.0%

3.7%

GenesisContactMeridianMercury

5.7%

5.6%

1.9

2.5

2.0

3.1

ContactMercuryMeridianGenesis

2.8x

EV to EBITDAF (x)

Bubble size: Enterprise value to FY20

EBITDAF* multiple

Net debt / FY20 EBITDAF (%)

Ordinary dividend yield (%)*

* FY20 multiples: indicative Contact EBITDAF of $480m, peers at consensus. Net debt as reported at 31 December 2018. Share prices

as at 18 April 2019.

Sector leading ordinary dividend yield with significant balance sheet

capacity

S&P limit for BBB ~2.8x (with own thermal

risk management). Lower for renewable

only generators.

Meridian has a capital management

plan in place until FY22 –distributed as

a special dividend (not included)

Offers value on current earnings

Contact: FT19 target, Peers consensus

31
Contact is the

only listed

generator in

New Zealand

without a

majority

shareholder

Daily trade by value –last 6 months

($m/day)

Open share register provides significantly more liquidity and

flexibility relative to government owned peers

9.2

2.5

5.2

1.2

MeridianContactMercuryGenesis

Deep and liquid register

65%

12%

12%

New Zealand

3%

UK

Australia

North America

Rest of Europe

4%

4%

Asia

0%

Rest of World

18%

14%

14%

49%

1 -2%

0%

5%

>5%

4 -5%

<1%

3 -4%

2 -3%

Sum of register by % of issued share capital holding

Holder by region (%)

»35% of

register is

held

outside of

New

Zealand

»No

holders

above 5%

of issued

share

capital

32
Focus on

optimising

cash flow

generation,

disposal of

non-core

assets has

resulted in

strong

shareholder

returns

Returns to shareholders improving as operational focus enabled

ordinary dividend increases which resonated in a weaker forward

interest rate environment

Delivering for shareholders

DISTRIBUTIONS ($m)

81

7979

93

115

110

107107

136

165

367

100

286

280

FY17FY19

target

FY18FY15

186

FY16

558

229

Special dividend

BuybackFinal dividend

Interim dividend

Declared or target

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

Apr-18Jun-18Aug-18Oct-18Dec-18Feb-19

ContactNZX 50

12 MONTH SHARE PRICE VS NZX50

Announced

change to

dividend policy

(+4 cps)

Completed the

sale of

Rockgas LPG

Rebased to 100

33
33

New Zealand electricity market

34
“New Zealand

serves as a

model for

effective

energy markets

and secure

power system

operation”

International Energy

Agency (IEA)

New Zealand 2017

Review

New Zealand enjoys a reliable, affordable and

environmentally sustainable electricity system

New Zealand electricity market

5

Major

generators

1

State-owned

national

transmission

grid operator

29

Distribution

businesses

44

Retailers

(50 brands)

2.1

Million

consumers

Regulated monopoliesCompetitive

Competitive

Spot

electricity

pool

35
While demand

is at a similar

level to 2008,

there have

been

encouraging

signs of

demand

growth since

2013

Despite the continued energy efficiency in the residential

market

Demand

Source: EMI

National electricity demand (TWh)

Annual consumption per household (kWh)

Source: MBIE electricity statistics

40.1

40.6

20132014

41.3

40.7

20152016

41.2

2017

41.2

2018

0.5%

7,402

7,285

7,314

7,107

7,088

7,056

201820152017201320142016

-1.0%

»Forestry/agriculture, food

processing and commercial

have grown since the GFC

»This growth has been offset

by ongoing reductions in

demand from the pulp and

paper sector as well as

residential efficiency

Agriculture

6%

Residential

31%

Industrial

37%

Commercial

24%

Electricity consumption breakdown

Source: MBIEelectricity statistics

36
Hydro storage is

crucial, but limited;

-maximum

controlled

storage of ~4

TWh spread

across four key

catchments

-~10% of annual

demand of 41

TWh

Hydro schemes are mostly run-of-river with rainfall into key

catchments weighted to summer, while demand is winter biased

Supply fundamentals

Source: NZX hydro

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Jan-

13

2,874 GWh

Jan-

10

Jan-

15

Jan-

11

Jan-

16

Jan-

12

Jan-

17

Jan-

14

Jan-

18

Jan-

19

CluthaWaitakiManapouri Taupo

Average annual generation of

3,900 GWh

Max storage of ~300 GWh

Summer inflows

Wet to dry range of 1,000 GWh

Average annual generation of

7,000 GWh

Max storage of~2,500 GWh

Shared between Genesis

(Lake Tekapo) and Meridian

(all lakes downstream of Lake

Tekapo)

Summer inflows

Wet to dry range of 3,000

GWh

Average annual generation of

4,800 GWh

Max storage of ~800 GWh

Highest inflow intra year

volatility of all catchments

Wet to dry range of 2,000 GWh

Average annual generation of

4,000 GWh

Max storage of ~500 GWh

Winter inflows

Wet to dry range of 1,300 GWh

South Island

North Island

National controlled storage (GWh)

37
Thermal

generation is

currently the

most

economic

swing fuel to

manage the

seasonal

supply and

demand

mismatch

Thermal generation sets the opportunity cost of renewables, this

includes stored water

to

5TWh

per annum of seasonal

renewables firming required

10TWh

43

10

5

7

2

2

21

5

WindMinimum

thermal

2018

generation

(including

losses)

GeothermalMinimum

hydro

Co-

generation

Maximum

thermal

Hydro

swing

-5

National annual supply (TWh)

Major thermal

generators

Sources of flexibility

Contact –gas

and diesel with

15 year access

to gas storage

Genesis –coal

and gas

Nova/Todd

Energy –gas

“Dry year”:

Genesis’s coal stock

pile

Daily and seasonal:

Gas Storage

“Wet year”: Gas

Storage

Winter

Peaks/Outages:

Diesel

Flexible thermal production is required

Supply fundamentals

38
The market

quickly

responds to

changes in

supply and

demand by

sending price

signals

In addition to managing the supply and demand balance, thermal fuel

supply shocks impact the market in the short-term

Wholesale pricing

Jan-16Jan-18

0

Jan-08

50

Jan-10Jan-12

200

Jan-14Jan-20

100

150

300

$79/MWh

Aluminium

Short-term external factors that can

influence the market

Long-dated futures (>12 months)

Short-dated futures (<12 months)

Monthly average spot price

Wholesale and futures electricity pricing ($/MWh)

Source: EMI wholesale pricing

Average spot

price

Wholesale

electricity

prices

Long-term pricing is linked to the long-run

marginal costs of new renewable projects

to meet demand plus costs associated with

firming renewable intermittency

39
39

The market in action –1H19

40
National electricity demand flat on 1H18

Source: EMI, Contact

NATIONAL ELECTRICITY DEMAND (TWh)

2.52.52.52.5

2.6

5.2

5.4

5.0

5.3

5.0

13.3

13.4

13.3

13.4

13.4

1H151H161H181H171H19

21.0

21.3

20.8

21.2

21.0

0%

North IslandNZASSouth Island (ex NZAS)

REGIONAL CHANGE (%) 1H19 vs 1H18

»

The NZAS gradual re-commissioning of the 4th potline (50MW) from

October 2018, resulted in a 4% increase in electricity consumption. Once

fully operational national demand will increase by ~1% (NZAS demand

will be up ~17%)

»

South Island irrigation related demand was significantly lower than 1H18

»

Residential demand increased by 2% per customeron lower average

temperatures

Source: EMI, Contact

Demand at key South

Island irrigation nodes

reverted to historical

averages after a dry

1H18

0%

0%

1%

(1%)

1%

(1%)

(17%)

(8%)

0%

1%

(3%)

1%

0%

1H19 demand

41
-1,000

-600

-200

200

600

1,000

Jul-17Sep-17Nov-17Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18

Variance to mean (GWh)

North Island storageSouth Island storage

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Jun-17Aug-17Oct-17Dec-17Feb-18Apr-18Jun-18Aug-18Oct-18Dec-18

Mean storageActual storage

National storage rising in advance of winter

SOUTH ISLAND INFLOWS NORMALISED FROM A

DRY 1H18

»

An acute drought in key South Island catchments between October and

December 2017 was broken in February 2018 when cyclones Fehi and

Geta made landfall. This contributed to above mean national storage at

the start of winter 2018

»

Extreme November 2018 rainfall added ~700GWh to national storage over

a two week period after the traditional spring inflows failed to materialise

NATIONAL HYDRO STORAGE AGAINST MEAN STORAGE (GWh)

AVERAGE MONTHLY STORAGE VS MEAN BY ISLAND (GWh)

MONTHLY NATIONAL RAINFALL

As a percentage of 1981 –2010 monthly normal (source: NIWA)

400%

200%

160%

140%

120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

10%

July August September October November December

1H18

1H19

of normal

rainfall

Mean storage 1926 –2016 (source: NZX hydro)

Mean storage 1926 –2016 (source: NZX hydro)

1H191H18

1H19 supply

42
Wholesale spot prices responded to fuel scarcity

»

While volatile hydrology is a well-known feature of electricity

supply in New Zealand, normally reliable gas production was

significantly constrained in 1H19 impacting generation from

thermal assets

»

Remedial work to the Pohokura gas field’s offshore pipeline

and platform, which was completed in December 2018,

ended more than 200 days of constrained gas supply

across two separate outages. Restricted production from

Pohokura is expected to continue over 2H19

»

Gas availability should improve as current constraints are

unlocked

»

The elevated spot price environment has led to increases in short-

dated forwards (i.e. for contracts maturing less than six months

ahead)

»

Long-dated forward prices (1 February 19: $88.3/MWh) have

increased by over $12.9/MWh (or over 17 per cent) in the last six

months

20

120

220

320

JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun

FY13 - FY19 rangeFY13 - FY19 averageFY19FY18

MONTHLY WHOLESALE SPOT ELECTRICITY PRICES ($/MWh)

Generation weighted (source: Electricity Authority –Wholesale electricity prices)

ELECTRICITY FORWARD PRICE CURVES ($/MWh)

20

120

220

320

Jul-17Sep-17Nov-17Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18

7-day simple moving average spot priceLong-dated futures

Short-dated futures

Generation weighted (source: Electricity Authority –Wholesale electricity prices)

HYDRO STORAGE LEVELS AND THERMAL FUEL

CONSTRAINTS INCREASED NEAR TERM PRICES

1H19 wholesale pricing

43
43

Appendix -1H19 Results extracts

44
Profit of $276m, supported by proceeds from

portfolio changes

58

47

48

97

99

11

61

20

Discontinued

operation

Discontinued

operations

Profit on

continuing

operations

177

Profit on

continuing

operations

1

Items

excluded

from

underlying

1H18

underlying

profit

EBITDAF

4

Depreciation

and

amortisation

4

Net interest

costs

1H19 profitTax1H19

underlying

profit

2

Items

excluded

from

underlying

1H18 profit

276

+49

STATUTORY PROFIT ($m)

PROFIT ON CONTINUING OPERATIONS UP BY 111% AS EBITDAF FROM CONTINUING OPERATIONS

INCREASED BY $61m

45
EBITDAF from continuing operations up by $61m

12

7

39

1H191H18Generation

costs

Contracted

revenue

Trading /

merchant

revenue

185

243

+58

2

1

2

1

1

Gas

gross

margin

1H18Electricity

gross

margin

Energy

costs

(inc.

carbon)

Other

income

Cost to

serve

1H19

45

48

+3

1

13

Labour1H18Staff

incentives

1H19

1

13

0

WHOLESALE EBITDAF ($m)

CUSTOMER EBITDAF ($m)

CORPORATE / UNALLOCATED ($m)

Continuing business performance

46
Generation costs

Electricity generated or acquired

(GWh)

1,726

1,652

1,635

2,045

1,016

887

385

171

4,762

Thermal

1H18

Acquired

1H19

Hydro

Geothermal

4,754

Renewable generation up 10% on 1H18, costs down by $12m

81

57

81

50

60

52

59

49

35

35

24

25

25

24

10

Generation

type

1

6

6

Cost typeGeneration

type

Cost type

Acquired

Thermal

Renewable

164

176176

164

-12

1H181H19

Electricity generated or acquired ($m)

Gas storage

Other operating costs

Electricity and gas transmission and levies

Carbon costs

Gas and diesel

»

Hydro generation was up 410 GWh (25%) as

hydro generation returned to mean after a dry

1H18, geothermal lower on planned Wairakei

outage

»

Higher renewable production required less

thermal generation (+$5m) and less acquired

generation (+$21m)

»

This was offset by higher unit input costs for

gas, diesel and carbon (-$4m), higher electricity

and gas transmission and gas storage costs (-

$4m) and a higher price for the acquired

generation (-$10m)

»

Prioritisation of more efficient thermal plant and

lower labour costs saw efficiency gains of $4m

»

Renewable costs are essentially fixed providing

leverage to increased hydro generation

47
159

159

138

126

42

53

14

16

2

1H191H18

362

7

355

+7

2,069 GWh

$76.9 / MWh

Wholesale contracted revenue

Contracted revenue ($m)

Energy prices higher on the prior period, reduced exposure to fixed price sales and redirected

load to higher priced channels

1,736 GWh

$79.6 / MWh

658 GWh

$63.4 / MWh

(52 GWh)

+$1.9 / MWh

(164 GWh)

+$0.7 / MWh

+50 GWh

+$11.2 / MWh

Other net income

Steam sales

CFD salesCustomer sales

C&I netback

»

Fixed price variable volume electricity sales to Customer

and C&I customers were 216 GWh (4%) lower than

1H18 (-$16m) which was partially offset by higher prices

(+$4m)

»

Increased CFD sales to support NZAS, which was up by

22GWh contributed to higher CFD electricity sales in

1H19 (+$1m). Higher pricing was achieved on both end-

user CFDs (+$2m) and short-term CFD sales to other

generators (+$8m)

»

Steam revenue was $2m higher on 1H18 on a 6%

increase in volumes and a higher tariff which reflected

rising carbon prices

»

Other income was up by $5m on 1H18, predominantly

due to improvements made to trading activity which

limited exposure to volatile markets

48
Wholesale trading and merchant revenue

TRADING EBITDAF ($m)

Contact was able to generate to support the market during higher priced periods in 1H19

33

78

-23

-33

6

-4

1H181H19

0

45

+39

357

459

-58

4,244

-4,355

4,355

1H18

-4,244

-1

458

1H19

299

($64.6 / MWh)

LONG / SHORT POSITION (GWh)

$92.9 / MWh

$170.5 / MWh

($114.6 / MWh)

6.2%

($5.2 / MWh)

6.7%

($7.7 / MWh)

Spot sales and buy CFD settlement

Merchant salesPool purchases

Spot purchases and sell CFD settlement

»

Contact’s flexible generation portfolio

and access to stored gas saw a 102

GWh increase in merchant sales

volumes (+$17m) to support the

market during the recent higher priced

periods as the spot price responded to

gas field outages and lower national

hydro storage levels. The price

received for this “long” generation was

up by $77/MWh (+$28m)

»

Strong generation volumes and risk

management saw limited price

exposure to unhedged spot market

purchases

»

LWAP/GWAP losses only increased by

0.5% but higher spot prices saw the

absolute cost increase by $10m to

$33m

TRADING REVENUE

Merchant sales: short-term sales channel

available when the spot prices exceed the

opportunity cost on Contact generation

Pool purchase: short-term opportunistic

purchases from the spot electricity market

when better value than alternatives

(adjusted for volatility and volume)

LWAP / GWAP losses: locational price

differences between where electricity is

generated and purchased

49
Customer business performance

458

455

39

39

2

3

1H181H19

499

497

-2

1,907 GWh

$240.4 / MWh

452 GWh

$85.4 / MWh

Revenue ($m)

EBITDAF ($m)

233

236

19

19

-159-159

-41

-40

-1

-8

Electricity

2

-1

-10

1H181H19

48

3

Gas

Other income

45

+3

(33 GWh)

+$2.2 / MWh

+33 GWh

($4.5 / MWh)

EBITDAF up by $3m on higher tariff, lower network costs and a reduction in cost to serve

Revenue less

networkcosts

$122.3 / MWh

Other income

Gas

Electricity

»

Electricity sales volume down 33 GWh due to

lower customers numbers, offset by higher gas

sales to SME customers

»

Intense competition and the decision not to

renew 2,700 SME ICPs reduced average

customer connections

»

Customer numbers stable over the past three

months with new propositions in market.

Broadband offer attractive.

»

Electricity gross margin up on successful

customer retentions and corrections to historical

pricing anomalies

»

Broadband and LPG services revenue

leverages existing cost infrastructure

»

Energy costs increased, following higher ASX

prices and higher gas and carbon costs

»

Other operating expenses favourable $1m despite

investment in digital, brand and new products

($83.5 / MWh)

+$3.1 / MWh

($1.4 / MWh)

Gas costs

Electricity costsCarbon costs

Other operating expenses

50
Cost efficiency programme continues to deliver

controllable cost reduction

OTHER OPERATING COSTS ($m)

8

7

13

13

52

50

41

40

1H18

114

1H19

110

-4

Wholesale

Customer

Corporate

LPG

2

6

4

1H18Asset

disposals

110

Cost and

efficiency

programme

1H18

rebased for

the effect

of the

disposals

1H19

operating

costs

before

incentives

Staff

incentives

1H19

112

114

106

»

Efficiency programme delivers $6m

operating cost reduction in 1H19,

against $8m target for FY19

»

Wholesale and corporate labour costs

down on reduced FTE

»

ICT costs lower after the move to the

cloud and efficiency initiatives

»

Further reduction in bad debt

»

Customer investment in brand and

digital accommodated

»

On target for guided FY20 reductions

»

Staff incentives up on improvement to

financial performance on 1H18

OTHER OPERATING COST MOVEMENT ($m)

CONTROLLABLE OPEX ($m)

263

247

243

223

205

190

FY20 targetFY15FY16FY17FY18FY19 target

-6%

5% reduction in like for

like other operating costs

51
Cash flow and capital expenditure

128

102

69

FY18FY16FY17

60 -65

FY19 target

»

EBITDAF up on strong Wholesale performance

»

Working capital changes up by $18m on improved receivables collections

»

Cash tax up in line with increasing earnings and balancing payments from prior

periods

»

Capital expenditure on continuing operations of $27m in 1H19

6 months

ended

31

December

2018

6 months

ended

31 December

2017

Comparison against

1H18

EBITDAF

$291m$236m


$55m

Workingcapital changes

$10m($8m)


$18m

Taxand interest paid

($77m)($60m)


($17m)

SIBCapital

($29m)($35m)


($6m)

Other non cash movements

$9m$8m


$1m

Operating free cash flow

2

$203m$141m


$62m

Operating free cash flow per share

2

28.3 cps19.7 cps


8.6 cps

Proceeds from saleof assets/operations

$438m-


$438

Free cash flow

$641m$141m


$500m

SIB CAPEX ($m)

6

2

Historic

2

Revision to

guidance

Current

65

75

-10

LONG RUN AVERAGE CAPEX ($m)

Efficiency improvementsAGS

Rockgas

10

15

40

65

Customer

Wholesale -Maintanence

Wholesale -TCC and drilling

Excludes capex associated with Wairakei extension post 2026

OPERATING CASH FLOW UP BY $62m ON HIGHER EBITDAF, FAVOURABLE WORKING CAPITAL

MOVEMENTS AND LOWER INTEREST AND CAPEX COSTS

52
Strong free cash flow directed to strengthening the

balance sheet

141

107

203

136

438

298

7

4

1

Uses

142

Sources

10

Sources

14

207

Uses

142

641641

Gas sale and repurchase

Shares isued

OFCF

Net sales proceeds

Growth investment

Increase in cash

Debt repayment

Dividends paid

236

291

-60

-77

-35

-29

203

8

-8

141

1H191H18

10

8

EBITDAF

Working capital changes

Interest and tax

Other non cash movements

SIB cash capex

OPERATING FREE CASH FLOW –OFCF ($m)

SOURCES AND USES OF CASH ($M)

1H181H19

EBITDAF TO CASH CONVERSION INCREASED TO 70% IN 1H19 FROM 60% IN 1H18

53
Strong balance sheet

222

50

70

150

100

153

224

150

175

50

50

7

160

7

FY19FY20

7

FY21FY22

77

FY23

7

FY24

22

FY25

-29

229

207

252

207

157

245

»

Face value of net borrowings reduced by $514m to $931m following the completion of the asset

sales. Net debt has reduced by $767m since the end of FY15. Gearing reduced to 29.7% at 31

December 2018, down from 35.4% at 30 June 2018

»

$222m retail bond maturing in May 2019 being partly refinanced

»

Weighted average interest rate increased by 42bp on FY18

»

Contact continues to target a credit rating of BBB (net debt / EBITDAF <2.8x)

-210

27

-12

-4

1,539

1,626

1,677

1,698

1,401

FY15FY14

25

23

1,608

-5

1,504

FY16

41

-6

FY17

38

1,410

-3

FY18

26

1,115

1H19

1,416

1,445

931

FY16

7.55%

FY17FY14

6.06%

5.25%

5.53%

FY15

5.01%

FY18

5.43%

1H19

ROBUST TREASURY MANAGEMENT ENSURES ACCESS TO DIVERSE FUNDING SOURCES

CLOSING NET DEBT ($m)

INTEREST RATE (%)

NET DEBT TO EBITDAF (x)

BORROWING MATURITIES ($m)

1,372

1,425

1,672

1,593

1,5061,259

Average net debt ($m)

Weighed average interest rate on average net debt

Face value of borrowings less cash

USPPUndrawn bank facilitiesDomesticNEXI

Includes S&P adjustments (AGS currently treated as a lease)

Lease obligationsBorrowingsCash on hand

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.0

2.7

2.5

2.6

3.4

3.2

3.2

3.1

2.2

FY18FY14FY17FY16FY15FY19

forecast

SmoothedSnapshot

Average tenor of 3.6 years as at 31 December 2018

54
Guidance affirmed

FY19 (f)

Changeto prior

guidance

Other operating costs$200–210m

-

Depreciation and amortisation$200 –205m

Rangenarrowed

on completion of

disposals

Net interest (accounting)$75–80m

Rangenarrowed

on completion of

disposals

Cash interest$70 –75m

Newguidance

added

Stay in business capital

expenditure (accounting)

$65 –75m

-

Target ordinary dividend per

share

39 cps

up4cps (+11%)

CONFIDENCE IN THE ABILITY TO DELIVER PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENTS

480

-60

-70

-65

FY20

285

Key assumptions:

»Hydro generation at 3,900 GWh (mean), geothermal

generation at 3,350 GWh (average)

»ASX electricity futures and electricity retail margins stable

»Excludes working capital movements

FY20 OFCF ($m)

EBITDAF

Cash interestSIB cash capex

Cash tax

FY20 (f)

Changeto prior

guidance

$185–195m

-

$195 –205m

-

$60 –65m

-

$55 –60m

Newguidance

added

$60 –65m

-

39 cps

Newguidance

added

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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