Investor presentation
Queenstown, March 2020
Disclaimer and important information
This presentation may contain projections or forward-looking statements regarding a variety of items.
Such forward-looking statements are based upon current expectations and involve risks and uncertainties.
Actual results may differ materially
from those stated in any forward-
looking statement based on a number
of important factors and risks.
Although management may indicate
and believe that the assumptions
underlying the forward-looking
statements are reasonable, any of the
assumptions could prove inaccurate or
incorrect and, therefore, there can be
no assurance that the results
contemplated in the forward-looking
statements will be realized.
This presentation does not
constitute investment advice.
Numbers in the presentation have
not all been rounded and might not
appear to add.
All logos and brands are property
of their respective owners. All
company, product and service
names used in this presentation
are for identification purposes only.
All references to $ are
New Zealand dollars
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Contact Energy / Queenstown Investor day / March 2020
EBITDAF, underlying profit, free
cash flow and operating free cash
flow are non-GAAP (generally
accepted accounting practice)
measures. Information regarding
the usefulness, calculation and
reconciliation of these measures is
provided in the supporting material.
Furthermore, while all reasonable
care has been taken in compiling
this presentation, Contact accepts
no responsibility for any errors or
omissions.
SNAPSHOT
Contact Energy / Queenstown Investor day / March 2020
3
All figures at 30 June 2019 or for FY19 year.
It is an owner and operator of low-cost,
long-life renewable generation assets
and is developing its consented
geothermal development
options.
“New Zealand serves as a
model for effective energy
markets and secure power
system operation.”
International Energy Agency (IEA)
New Zealand 2017 Review
Major
generators
State-owned national
transmission grid operator
Distribution
businesses
Retailers
(50 brands)
Million
consumers
REGULATED MONOPOLIES
COMPETITIVECOMPETITIVE
Spot
electricity
pool
NEW ZEALAND ELECTRICITY MARKET
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Contact Energy / Queenstown Investor day / March 2020
13%
32%
39%
13%
GST
Retail
3%
Levies
0%
Meter rentals
$2,419
per year
What does your
power bill pay for?
Transmission and
distribution
Generation
cost
National quarterly supply and demand (TWh)
MANAGING SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Thermal generation is currently the most economic swing fuel to manage the seasonal supply and demand mismatch.
Flexible thermal
production is required
per annum of
seasonal renewables
firming required
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Contact Energy / Queenstown Investor day / March 2020
0.60.6
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.8
6.8
5.8
5.6
7.6
1.1
2.6
3.5
0.5
0.5
JunMar
0.5
SepDec
Mean hydro inflows*
Geothermal**
Wind**
10.2
10.9
11.6
10.5
Quarter ending
*Source: NZX hydro, mean inflows1926 –2019. ** Source: MBIE quarterly electricity generation and consumption 2015 to 2019
Thermal and
hydro storage
Must-run
renewable
generation
VALUE DRIVERS
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Contact Energy / Queenstown Investor day / March 2020
Fixed sales improves
earnings predictability
from volatile wholesale
spot prices
Value from thermal assets
by selling at a fixed price
Reducing the cost of
generationthrough
thermal substitution
Lowering the cost of
geothermal generation
Disciplined and transparent
approach to operating and
capital expenditure
Focus on operational
improvement
Optimiseasset portfolio
450
378
350
285
276
269
280
46
41
37
32
32
3131
FY18FY14FY13FY16FY15FY17FY19
-165
Electricity spot prices ($/MWh)
Generation weighted
0
200
400
Jan-18Jan-19Jul-18Jul-19Jan-20
391
357
301
272
260
FY18FY16FY19FY17FY20 mid-point
Controllable opexand capex ($m)
Generation costs ($m and $/MWh)
Fixed price sales as a % of mean
renewable generation
Investing
in profitable
growth
Productivity
Pricing
FY19 year.
STRONG INVESTMENT CASE
Strong cash
flow generation
and operational
performance
Dividend policy
provides certainty
Shares offer value
and liquidity when
benchmarked
Latent potential
with world-class
geothermal capability
ESG
CREDENTIALS
OPEN
ECONOMY
7
<IR>
Contact Energy / Queenstown Investor day / March 2020
=
Estimated total
capital cost
~11 to 12 cps
Operating free
cash flow yield
~$1bn
•Assumes debt funded at current rates with an $75-85/MWh wholesale price. Capital cost
estimates exclude sunk costs incurred pre-FY20 and capitalised interest.
GEOTHERMAL POTENTIAL
Opportunity
Possible staging timing dependent on results of appraisal
drilling, demand growth and economic thermal substitution.
A world-class
geothermal
expertise with
consented
brownfield
development
potential.
in operating free cash flow
from capital deployment into
an asset that we have a
60 year track record
of managing.
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Contact Energy / Queenstown Investor day / March 2020
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time
Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.
- GNE — Genesis Energy Limited: FY20 Q2 Performance Report2020-01-22
“Appendix: Retail Segment Genesis Energy Limited FY20 Q2 Performance Report 10. - 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 $120 $130 $140 $150 $160 $170 Q1 FY17 Q2Q3Q4 Q1 FY18 Q2Q3Q4 Q1 FY19 Q2Q3Q4 Q1 FY20 Q2 ICP Count Thousands Cost to Serve ($/ICP) ICP NUMBER & COST TO S…”
- MEL — Meridian Energy Limited: Meridian Energy Limited 2020 Interim Results2020-02-25
“465 389 +88 -1 -3 -8 200 300 400 500 EBITDAF 31 Dec 18 NZ energy margin Aus energy margin Other revenueTransmission expenses Operating expenses EBITDAF 31 Dec 19 $M Group EBITDAF movement 12 EBITDAF Record level of 1H FY20 EBITDAF 1 , +20% on 1H FY19 supported by higher custome…”