Global Dairy Update March 2020
• Fonterra announced its Interim Results on 18 March.
• Fonterra completes sale of Dennington.
1
Global Dairy
UPDATE
• Monthly New Zealand production flat and
Australian production steadies. Increase in EU
and US production.
• Monthly exports from the US and EU
grow. New Zealand, Australia monthly
exports decline.
• Latin America and Asia monthly imports down.
December imports up for Middle East and
Africa. China records decline for first two
months of 2020.
• Fonterra’s milk collection across New Zealand
for the nine months to 29 February reached
1,212 million kgMS, down 0.3% on last season.
Fonterra's Australian milk collection decreased
15.0% to 77.3 million kgMS.
• Helping with New Zealand's sanitiser shortage.
Key Dates
20 April 2020
Share Standard Compliance
2019/20 Season
May 2020
FY20 Q3 Business Update
1 June 2020
Measurement Date for Share
Standard 2020/21 Season
MARCH 2020
For further details,
view our website –
%
%
%%
%
%
%%
Change for February 2020
compared to February 2019
Change for February 2020
compared to February 2019
Change for January 2020
compared to January 2019
Change for January 2020
compared to January 2019
Change for the 12 months
to February 2020
Change for the 12 months
to February 2020
Change for the 12 months
to January 2019
Change for the 12 months
to January 2020
5.30.50.0
5.60.60.8
1.1
1.6
2
OUR MARKETS
Global Production
Monthly New Zealand
production flat and
Australian production
steadies. Increase in EU and
US production
New Zealand milk
production¹ was flat on a
litres basis in February (up
1.7% on milk solids basis
compared to the same period
last year).
Adjusting for the leap year,
February 2020 production
was down 3.4% (down 1.8%
on a milk solids basis).
Drought conditions across
the North Island and
heavy rainfall in the lower
South Island affected milk
production in February.
New Zealand milk production
for the 12 months to February
was 1.6% lower than last year.
Fonterra collections are
reported for February, see
page 5 for details.
Australia milk
production increased 0.5%
in January compared to the
same period last year.
Production for the 12 months
to January was down 5.6% on
the previous 12 months.
Australian production has
steadied in recent months,
with rainfall in many regions
offsetting the impact of dry
conditions and helping to
offset higher feed costs.
Fonterra collections in
Australia are reported
for February, see page 5
for details.
EU milk production
increased by 1.1% in January
compared to the same
period last year.
The largest production
growth can be seen in The
Netherlands (up 2.8%),
Poland (up 2.2%) followed
by France (up 1.3%) and
Germany (up 0.7%).
The increase in milk
production is likely to
translate into more cheese,
especially from Poland
where the growth has
been sustained for the last
six months.
EU milk production for the
12 months to January was
up by 0.6% compared to the
same period last year.
US milk production
increased by 5.3% in
February compared to
the same period last year.
However, with February
2020 containing an extra
day due to 'leap year', the
adjusted increase is closer to
2% on a daily basis.
February's continued milk
production growth is driven
by steady increases in herd
sizes and in milk per cow.
Milk production for the
12 months to February was
0.8% higher compared to
the same period last year.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in production –
1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.
Note: February 2020 production numbers include one extra day of production as 2020 is a leap year.
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in exports –
3
OUR MARKETS
Global Exports
Monthly exports from
the EU and US grow.
New Zealand and Australia
monthly exports decline
Total New Zealand
dairy exports decreased
by 6.1%, or 19,348 MT, in
February compared to the
same period last year. This
was primarily driven by
decreased demand for butter
from Iran and for fluid milk
products from China, down a
combined 20,068 MT.
Exports for the 12 months to
February were up 3.7%, or
124,552 MT, on the previous
comparable period. This was
primarily driven by WMP,
fluid milk products, cheese
and infant formula, up a
combined 156,044 MT.
EU dairy exports
increased by 3.0%, or
12,444 MT, in December
compared to the same
period last year. This was
mainly driven by increases in
butter, fluid milk products,
cheese and WMP, up a
combined 29,405 MT, and
partially offset by a decrease
in SMP exports of 18,349 MT.
Exports for the 12 months to
December were up 7.6%, or
408,870 MT, on the previous
comparable period. SMP,
fluid milk products, butter,
cheese and lactose were the
main drivers of this growth,
up a combined 415,121 MT.
US dairy exports
increased 18.8%, or
31,964 MT, in January
compared to the same
period last year marking the
fourth consecutive month
of growth. The increase was
driven primarily by SMP,
up 20,153 MT, and WPC
and lactose, up a combined
9,849 MT. This increase is the
result of higher demand from
Indonesia, Philippines and
Vietnam. Whey exports have
started to grow and were up
by 923 MT after months of
sustained declines.
Exports for the 12 months
to January 2020 were down
3.4%, or 80,441 MT, on the
previous comparable period.
The decrease was driven
by whey and AMF, down a
combined 85,416 MT.
Australia dairy exports
decreased by 18.1%, or
11, 683 MT, in January
compared to the same
period last year. This was
primarily driven by SMP
and infant formula, down a
combined 12,410 MT.
Exports for the 12 months to
January were down 5.7%, or
45,072 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
Declines were recorded
across a broad range of
products with SMP, whey,
cheese and WMP down a
combined 76,126 MT partially
offset by an increase in fluid
milk products, up 37,635 MT.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
%
%
%%
%
%
%%
Change for February 2020
compared to February 2019
Change for January 2020
compared to January 2019
Change for January 2020
compared to January 2019
Change for December 2019
compared to December 2018
Change for the 12 months
to February 2020
Change for the 12 months
to January 2020
Change for the 12 months
to January 2020
Change for the 12 months
to December 2019
18.818.16.1
5.77.63.4
3.0
3.7
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in imports –
4
OUR MARKETS
Global Imports
Latin America and Asia
monthly imports down.
December imports up for
Middle East and Africa.
China records decline for
first two months of 2020
Latin America dairy
import volumes¹
decreased 5.8%, or 9,125 MT,
in December compared to
the same period last year.
This was driven by decreases
in infant formula and SMP
down a combined 9,130 MT.
Imports for the 12 months
to December 2019 were
down 1.0%, or 19,560 MT,
compared to the same
period the previous year.
Decreases were driven
primarily by infant formula,
whey and cultured products,
down a combined 61,711,
largely offset by increases in
WPC, fluid milk products and
cheese, up by a combined
48,560 MT.
Asia (excluding China)
dairy import volumes¹
decreased 3.6%, or
14,740 MT, in December
compared to the same
period last year. Decreases
were recorded in SMP
and fluid products, down
27,622 MT, partially offset
by increases in whey, cheese
and butter, up a combined
10,186 MT.
Imports for the 12 months
to December were up 1.6%,
or 78,919 MT, compared
to the same period the
previous year. Growth was
recorded across SMP, cheese
and butter, up a combined
70,998 MT.
Middle East and Africa
dairy import volumes¹
increased 3.1%, or 10,497 MT,
in December 2019 compared
to the same period in 2018.
Increases were recorded
principally in SMP, WMP
and butter, up a combined
21,856 MT, partly offset by
a significant drop in infant
formula, down 11,498 MT.
Imports for the 12 months to
December 2019 were down
1.8%, or 73,730 MT, compared
to the prior comparable
period. This was driven by
large decreases in cheese
and WMP, down a combined
112,017 MT, partly offset by a
significant increase in infant
formula of 69,071 MT.
China dairy import
volumes decreased by 2.1%,
or 13, 605 MT, in the January-
February period compared
to the same period last year.
Based on aggregated data for
January and February from
Beijing Orient Agri-business,
the decrease was the result of
lower volumes of SMP (25%
or 20,875 MT), WMP (5% or
11, 358 MT) and lactose (41%
or 7,311 MT), partially offset
by an increase in butter, fluid
milk products and whey, up a
combined 26,153 MT.
COVID-19-related public
health measures put in place
in February are likely to have
impacted China's imports.
New Zealand's exports to
China reduced by 1.5% over
this period.
LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA
1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.
%
%
%%%
%%
Change for December 2019
compared to December 2018
Change January-February 2020
compared to same period 2019
Change for December 2019
compared to December 2018
Change for December 2019
compared to December 2018
Change for the 12 months
to December 2019
Change for the 12 months
to December 2019
Change for the 12 months
to December 2019
2.1
3.65.8
1.61.8
%
Change for the 12 months
to February 2020
7.5
3.1
1.0
To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New
Zealand and Australia compared
to the previous season –
%
%
%%
%%%
Season to date
1 July to 29 February
For the 2019/20 season
compared to the previous season
For the 2019/20 season
compared to the previous season
For the 2019/20 season
compared to the previous season
Change for February 2020
compared to February 2019
Change for February 2020
compared to February 2020
Change for February 2020
compared to February 2019
Change for February 2020
compared to February 2019
2.75.64.10.3
15.00.91.00.3
VOLUME M LITRESDAY
JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
5
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Milk Collection 2019/20 Season
NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA
New Zealand Milk Collection
Fonterra's Australia
collection in February were
7.6 million kgMS, down 2.7%
on February last season.
Average to above-average
rainfall and mild summer
conditions for much of
Australia during February
provided some month-on-
month stability.
Season-to-date collections
reached 77.3 million kgMS,
down 15. 0% on the same
period last season.
Fonterra collections continue
to be impacted by a highly
competitive milk supply
market which has seen losses
primarily to milk brokers.
Fonterra also decided to
purchase less milk from third
parties given the increased
focus on higher-value products.
North Island milk
collection for the month
ended 29 February was
70 million kgMS, down 4.1%
on last February.
Season-to-date collection
was 730.1 million kgMS,
down 1% on last season.
Drought conditions
persisted throughout
February, impacting milk
production across most
regions, with northern areas
significantly impacted.
South Island milk
collection for the month
ended 29 February was
63.7 million kgMS, up 5.6%
on last February.
Season-to-date collection
was 482.5 million kgMS, up
0.9% on last season.
Canterbury and Southland/
Otago regions received rain
mid-month which improved
pasture growth.
Fonterra's New Zealand
collection for the month
ended 29 February was
133.5 million kgMS, up 0.3%
on last February.
Season-to-date collection
was 1,212.6 million kgMS,
down 0.3% on last season.
February saw drought
conditions across much
of the North Island. These
conditions notably impacted
milk production in the
North Island. South Island
collections have held, with
season-to-date collections
marginally above last season.
The inclusion of off-GDT sales
contributed 8 cents per kgMS
to the Milk Price for the season
to 31 January 2020.
%
Leap day impact
An additional 4.3 million kgMS was collected
nationally (2.2 million in the North Island, 2.1 million
in the South Island) when compared to last season
%
%
%
%
%
%
To view more information,
including a snapshot of the
rolling year-to-date results –
%
6
GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE
MAR
OCT
MAR
MAY
AUG
OCT
JAN MAR MAY
AUG
JAN
,
,
,
.
.
.
.
.
PRICE INDEX
NZD USD
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results
Fonterra GDT sales
by destination:
Dairy commodity
prices and New
Zealand dollar trend
As the COVID-19 virus began
to spread outside of China and
the likely economic headwinds
resulting from quarantine
efforts came into focus, the
NZ dollar declined from 65 US
cents early in February to 62 US
cents by the end of February
and reduced significantly
during March.
Fonterra GDT results at
last trading event
17 March 2020:
The next trading event will be held on 7 April 2020. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.
Change in Fonterra’s
weighted average product
price from previous event
4.5
Fonterra’s weighted
average product price
(USD/MT)
3,011
USD
Fonterra product quantity
sold on GDT
000’ MT
23.4
NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)
SOUTH EAST ASIA
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
OTHER
USD 2,538/MT
8.3
SMP
USD 9,987/MT
1.0
RENNET CASEIN
USD 4,144/MT
0.3
BUTTER
USD 4,331/MT
0.7
AMF
USD 2,797/MT
5.2
WMP
USD 4,398/MT
2.6
CHEDDAR
23,363
MT
LATEST AUCTION
528,195
MT
FINANCIAL
YEAR‑TO‑DATE
Helping with
New Zealand’s
sanitiser shortage
One of the ways Fonterra
is helping to keep people
safe during COVID-19 is by
making more of its high-
grade ethanol available
to companies who use
it in the production of
sanitiser products, including
hand sanitiser.
This comes as the need for
sanitiser grows exponentially
throughout the country.
Fonterra is now
manufacturing an additional
220,000 litres, on top of the
375,000 litres it has already
made available to sanitiser
manufacturers in recent
weeks and it is now looking
at all viable options to
increase ethanol production
to help with supply of
sanitiser in the weeks and
months ahead.
On top of that, Fonterra
has been working with its
customers who use ethanol
but don’t make sanitiser, to
see if stock can be redirected
to create more supply.
Working closely with
long-time customer, fuel
company Gull, the Co-op
has been independently
testing Gull’s ethanol stock
originally destined for fuel to
determine where it’s suitable
for use in sanitiser. With the
support of Gull, 250,00 litres
has been independently
tested, and is now approved
for sale to sanitiser
producers via Fonterra’s
distribution network.
To date, an additional
403,000 litres of ethanol
stock has been redirected
towards sanitiser production
all thanks to the support of
Fonterra’s customers.
In total, 1 million litres
of ethanol has been
redirected for sanitiser,
which is the equivalent of
5.7 million 250ml bottles of
hand sanitiser.
Ongoing work to achieve this
has been made possible by
the efforts of teams across
the Co-op and with the
help of Fonterra’s national
distributor Axieo.
Head of Fonterra’s ethanol
business, Lactanol, Peter
Motion, says it’s the socially
responsible thing to do
and really needed right
now by our communities,
especially those people and
businesses on the front line
of the country’s COVID-19
response efforts.
“We will continue to work
with our distributor and
transport providers to
improve supply chain
efficiencies and increase
the weekly volume available
of ethanol available to
producers from less than
85,000 litres a week to more
than 250,000 litres a week.
“Fonterra is also continuing
to work with the
Government to identify and
prioritise industries that
need sanitising products as
they will be a necessity for all
essential services,” says Peter.
“But it’s not only about
looking after our
communities, we’re looking
after our employees too.”
“We are working hard to
keep up with the increased
hand sanitiser needs at our
sites, and we are currently
in the final stage of the
process to make our own
quality sanitiser product to
ensure our people have what
they need while at work.
Production is scheduled
to start this weekend,”
says Peter.
Our Co-op
7
8
Our Performance
A new chapter for
Dennington factory
ProviCo Australia buys
Fonterra’s Dennington site.
Fonterra Australia and
ProviCo Australia have
signed a sale and purchase
agreement for Fonterra’s
Dennington manufacturing
site. The sale will be
complete by 22 April 2020.
ProviCo is an
Australian-owned company
established in 2003 and a
leader in animal nutrition. It
is Australia’s largest supplier
of calf milk replacers,
manufacturing a range of
feed and vitamin-fortified
products for animals
including cattle, dairy, sheep,
horses and pigs.
Fonterra Australia Managing
Director René Dedoncker
said the sale is good news
for Dennington and its
surrounding community.
“Since we announced the
factory’s closure in May,
we’ve been working with
potential buyers to find a
commercially viable and
sustainable future for the
site, and we’re pleased to be
selling the factory to ProviCo
with all of its operational
capabilities and assets intact.
“The sale creates a new
chapter for the factory,
which has been an important
part of the Dennington
community for more
than 100 years,” said
Mr Dedoncker.
Managing Director
of ProviCo Australia,
Andrew Paterson, said that
the sale will create new
jobs for the Dennington
community and provide
environmental benefits for
the agriculture industry.
“Active in the circular
economy, our business
is focused on salvaging
raw materials and turning
them into animal nutrition
products. This helps the
food industry minimise their
waste costs and ProviCo’s
products improve farm
performance and health of
animals and soils.
“We’ll be employing local
people and will work with
local training institutions
to provide on-the-job skills
training to create further
employment opportunities
for the community.
“As well as creating local
jobs, we’re committed to
sustainability and sustainable
initiatives are a big part of
our plans. The Dennington
site will be a hub for our
sustainability programmes
around renewable energy
and sustainable farming
products,” said Mr Paterson.
ProviCo will use the site
to manufacture a range
of animal nutrition foods
that deliver health and
performance benefits for
infant and production
animals. As part of the sale
agreement, ProviCo will also
take over the responsibility
for the Dennington
memorabilia hall and
its contents.
The Dennington church
and its hall are not included
in the sale. Fonterra is
in discussions with the
Warrnambool Council on the
future of the church and its
hall and hopes to be able to
communicate the outcome
of these discussions soon.
PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
DEC JUL JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR
LIQUID MILK M LITRES
EXPORTS
AUSTRALIA
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY
MT s
AVERAGE
IMPORTS
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA
ASIACHINA
JUL JUN APR MAR DEC JAN FEB SEP NOV OCT MAY AUG
MT s
AVERAGE
9
Supplementary Information
Global Dairy Market
The charts on the right
illustrate the year-on-year
changes in imports, exports
and production for a range of
countries that are important
players in global dairy trade.
The absolute size of
the bars represents the
change in imports, exports
or production, relative
to the same period the
previous year.
Averages are shown where
data is complete for the
regions presented.
NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to January; New Zealand and US to February.
NOTE: Data for EU to December; Australia and US to January; New Zealand to February.
NOTE: Data for China, Asia, Latin America and Middle East & Africa to December.
SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR
MAR JAN OCT
FEB JUL
AUG
MAY
SEP
NOV
DEC
JUN
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD MT
10
Supplementary Information
Fonterra milk
production
The table on the right
shows Fonterra milk solids
collected in New Zealand
and Australia compared
to the previous season.
MILK COLLECTION
(MILLION KGMS)
FEBRUARY
2020
FEBRUARY
2019
MONTHLY
CHANGE
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2019/20
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2018/19
SEASON-
TO-DATE
CHANGE
Total Fonterra
New Zealand
133.5133.10.3%1,212.61,215.7(0.3%)
North Island69.872.8(4.1%)730.1737.6(1.0%)
South Island63.760.45.6%482.5478.10.9%
Fonterra Australia7.67.8(2.7%)77.390.9(15. 0%)
Fonterra GDT results
This table provides more
information on the latest
results, including a snapshot
of the year-to-date results.
LAST TRADING EVENT
(17 MARCH 2020)
YEAR-TO-DATE
(FROM 1 AUGUST 2019)
Quantity Sold on GDT
(Winning MT)
23,363528,195
Change in Quantity Sold on GDT
over same period last year
12.6%0.8%
Weighted Average Product Price
(USD/MT)
3,0113,338
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price over same period
last year
(11. 1%)10.7%
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price from previous event
(4.5%)–
Fonterra GDT results
This chart shows Fonterra
GDT prices and volumes over
the past 12 months.
11
AMF
Anhydrous Milk Fat.
BMP
Butter Milk Powder.
DIRA
Dairy Industry Restructuring
Act 2001 (New Zealand).
Farmgate Milk Price
The price for milk supplied in
New Zealand to Fonterra by
farmer shareholders.
Fluid Products
The Fonterra grouping
of fluid milk products
(skim milk, whole milk
and cream – pasteurised
or UHT processed),
concentrated milk products
(evaporated milk and
sweetened condensed milk)
and yoghurt.
GDT
Global Dairy Trade, the
online provider of the twice
monthly global auctions of
dairy ingredients.
kgMS
Kilogram of milk solids, the
measure of the amount of
fat and protein in the milk
supplied to Fonterra.
MPC
Milk Protein Concentrate.
Non-Reference Products
All dairy products, except
for Reference Products,
produced by the NZ
Ingredients business.
Reference Products
The dairy products used
in the calculation of the
Farmgate Milk Price, which
are currently WMP, SMP,
BMP, butter and AMF.
Glossary
Season
New Zealand: A period
of 12 months to 31 May
in each year.
Australia: A period of
12 months to 30 June
in each year.
SMP
Skim Milk Powder.
WMP
Whole Milk Powder.
WPC
Whey Protein Concentrate
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time
Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update March 20202020-03-31
“• Fonterra announced its Interim Results on 18 March. • Fonterra completes sale of Dennington. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Monthly New Zealand production flat and Australian production steadies. Increase in EU and US production. • Monthly exports from the US and EU grow. N…”
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update February 20202020-02-28
“• Fonterra completes the sale of DFE Pharma. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Monthly production in New Zealand down. EU and US in line with expectations. • Monthly exports from the US show strong growth. New Zealand, Australia and EU monthly exports decline. • December imports…”
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update May 20202020-05-28
“• Third Quarter Business Update. For further details, view our website – 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Monthly New Zealand production flat. Australia production continues to improve. US and EU new season production up. • New Zealand monthly exports decline. Increase in mont…”