Global Dairy Update April 2020
• Fonterra and YFood partnership.
1
Global Dairy
UPDATE
• New Zealand monthly production down.
Australia, EU and US production up.
• New Zealand and Australia monthly exports
decline. Increase in monthly exports from the
US and EU.
• China records decline for first two months of
2020. Asia, Middle East and Africa monthly
imports down.
• Fonterra’s milk collection across New Zealand
for the 10 months to 31 March reached
1,341 million kgMS, down 0.3% on last
season. Australia milk collection decreased
13.9% to 85.3 million kgMS for the season to
31 March 2020.
• Partnering to help out where we can - delivering milk and
food to those in need.
• Our cheese and butter bring home the bacon.
Key Dates
May/June 2020
FY20 Q3 Business Update
1 June 2020
Measurement Date for Share
Standard 2020/21 Season
31 July 2020
End of Financial Year 2020
APRIL 2020
%
%
%%
%
%
%%
Change for March 2020
compared to March 2019
Change for March 2020
compared to March 2019
Change for February 2020
compared to February 2019
Change for February 2020
compared to February 2019
Change for the 12 months
to March 2020
Change for the 12 months
to March 2020
Change for the 12 months
to February 2019
Change for the 12 months
to February 2020
2.28.11.9
4.41.01.1
4.4
1.1
2
OUR MARKETS
Global Production
New Zealand monthly
production down.
Australia, EU and US
production up
New Zealand milk
production¹ was down 1.9%
on a litres basis (up 0.1% on
a milk solids basis) in March
compared to March last year.
Continued drought
conditions for many locations
across New Zealand,
particularly in the upper
North Island affected milk
production in March. This
has prompted some farmers
to dry-off herds earlier
than usual.
New Zealand milk production
for the 12 months to March
was 1.1% lower than last year.²
Fonterra collections are
reported for March, see page
5 for details.
Australia milk
production² increased 8.1%
in February compared to the
same period last year.
With rainfall in many regions
offsetting the impact of dry
conditions milk production
is showing signs of recovery,
driven by growth in output
from regions in Victoria
and Tasmania.
Production for the 12 months
to February was down 4.4%
on the previous 12 months.²
Fonterra collections in
Australia are reported for
March, see page 5 for details.
EU milk production²
increased by 4.4% in
February compared to the
same period last year.
The largest production
growth was seen in Spain
(up 9.2%) followed by France
(5.3%), The Netherlands
(5.1%) and Germany (4.5%).
Milk production is
beginning to improve at a
time when global demand
uncertainty and supply chain
bottle-necks are weighing on
the market.
EU milk production for the
12 months to February was
up by 1.0% compared to the
same period last year.²
US milk production
increased by 2.2% in March
compared to March last year.
Milk production continued
to grow in March, as spring
volumes started to ramp
up and the result of prior
months’ steady increases
in herd sizes and in milk
per cow becomes apparent.
Some dairy producers have
been dumping milk, as
they struggle with a lack of
demand due to restaurant
and school closures amid the
COVID-19 crisis.
Milk production for the
12 months to March was
1.1% higher compared to the
same period last year.²
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in production –
1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.
2 2020 production numbers include one extra day of production in February as 2020 is a leap year.
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in exports –
3
OUR MARKETS
Global Exports
New Zealand and Australia
monthly exports decline.
Increase in monthly exports
from the US and EU
Total New Zealand
dairy exports decreased
by 5.9%, or 18,713 MT, in
February compared to the
same period last year. This
was primarily driven by
decreased demand for butter
from Iran and for fluid milk
products from China, down a
combined 19,132 MT.
Exports for the 12 months to
February were up 3.7%, or
124,237 MT, on the previous
comparable period. This was
primarily driven by WMP,
fluid milk products, cheese
and infant formula, up a
combined 129,269 MT.
EU dairy exports
increased by 0.8%, or
3,755 MT, in January
compared to the same
period last year. This was
mainly driven by increases in
cheese and butter to the US,
butter to the Middle East,
fluid milk products to China
and AMF to Saudi Arabia, up
a combined 28,212 MT, and
largely offset by a decrease
in SMP exports to Asia of
25,167 MT.
Exports for the 12 months
to January were up 6.6%, or
359,421 MT, on the previous
comparable period. Fluid
milk products, SMP, butter
and cheese were the main
drivers of this growth, up a
combined 348,635 MT.
US dairy exports
increased 5.4%, or 9,621 MT,
in February compared to
the same period last year,
albeit at a slower pace than
prior months.
The increase was driven
by WPC and lactose, up
a combined 8,997 MT.
Whey exports to China
also continued to grow
after months of sustained
declines, up 2,569 MT.
Cheese exports to Mexico
slowed, down 1,868 MT.
Exports for the 12 months to
February 2020 were down
2.0%, or 48,190 MT, on the
previous comparable period,
driven by whey and AMF,
down a combined 74,313 MT,
but partially offset by an
increase in WMP and fluid
milk products.
Australia dairy exports
decreased 16.0%, or
10,448 MT, in February
compared to the same
period last year. This was
primarily driven by fluid milk
products, WMP, SMP and
whey, down a combined
8,756 MT.
Exports for the 12 months to
January were down 7.6%, or
59,868 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
Declines were recorded
across a broad range of
products with SMP, whey,
cheese and WMP down
78,966 MT, but partially
offset by increases in fluid
milk products up 29,955 MT.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
%
%
%%
%
%
%%
Change for February 2020
compared to February 2019
Change for February 2020
compared to February 2019
Change for February 2020
compared to February 2019
Change for January 2020
compared to January2 019
Change for the 12 months
to February 2020
Change for the 12 months
to February 2020
Change for the 12 months
to February 2020
Change for the 12 months
to January 2020
5.416.05.9
7.66.62.0
0.8
3.7
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in imports –
4
OUR MARKETS
Global Imports
China records decline for
first two months of 2020.
Asia, Middle East and Africa
monthly imports down
Latin America dairy
import volumes¹ increased
4.1%, or 6,867 MT, in January
compared to the same
period last year. This was
driven by increased demand
for WMP from Colombia
and Chile and for cheese
from Mexico, up a combined
6,725 MT.
Imports for the 12 months
to January 2020 were
down 1.4%, or 28,274 MT,
compared to the same
period the previous year.
Decreases were driven
primarily by infant formula,
and whey, down a combined
47,519 MT, but largely offset
by increased WPC, up
22,017 MT.
Asia (excluding China)
dairy import volumes¹
decreased 8.9%, or
36,884 MT, in January
compared to the same
period last year. Decreases
were recorded in SMP, fluid
milk products and whey
down 31,765 MT.
Imports for the 12 months
to January were up 0.2%,
or 10,084 MT, compared
to the same period the
previous year.
Growth was recorded across
cheese, butter and lactose,
up a combined 48,111 MT, but
offset by decreases in whey
and infant formula, down
29,593 MT.
Middle East and
Africa dairy import
volumes¹ decreased 13.7%
or 50,445 MT, in January
compared to the same
period last year. Decreases
were recorded principally
in infant formula to Nigeria,
fluid milk product to Libya
and WMP to Algeria, down a
combined 45,440 MT.
Imports for the 12 months
to January 2020 were
down 2.7%, or 114,676 MT,
compared to the same
period last year. This was
driven by large decreases
in WMP and fluid milk
products, down a combined
120,894 MT, and partly offset
by an increase in infant
formula of 38,494 MT.
China dairy import
volumes decreased by 1.4%,
or 9,056 MT, in the January-
February period compared
to the same period last year.
Based on updated aggregated
data for January and February,
the decrease was the result of
lower volumes of SMP (21.6%
or 20,875 MT), WMP (4.9% or
11, 358 MT) and lactose (25.3%
or 4,495 MT), partially offset
by an increase in butter, fluid
milk products and whey, up a
combined 26,153 MT.
COVID-19-related public
health measures put in place
in February are likely to have
impacted China's imports.
New Zealand's exports to
China reduced by 1.5% over
this period.
LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA
1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.
%
%
%%%
%%
Change for January 2020
compared to January 2019
Change January-February 2020
compared to same period 2019
Change for January 2020
compared to January 2019
Change for January 2020
compared to January 2019
Change for the 12 months
to January 2020
Change for the 12 months
to January 2020
Change for the 12 months
to January 2020
1.4
8.94.1
0.22.7
%
Change for the 12 months
to February 2020
7.7
13.7
1.4
To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New
Zealand and Australia compared
to the previous season –
%
%
%%
%%%
Season to date
1 July to 31 March
Season to date
1 June to 31 March
Season to date
1 June to 31 March
Season to date
1 June to 31 March
Change for March 2020
compared to March 2019
Change for March 2020
compared to March 2020
Change for March 2020
compared to March 2019
Change for March 2020
compared to March 2019
2.94.76.61.2
13.91.41.50.3
VOLUME M LITRESDAY
JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
5
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Milk Collection 2019/20 Season
NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA
New Zealand Milk Collection
Fonterra's Australia
collection in March was
8.0 million kgMS, down 2.9%
on March last season.
Average to above-average
rainfall and moderate
summer temperatures for
much of Australia in March
improved seasonal conditions
and the milk production
outlook for the remainder of
the season.
Season-to-date collections
reached 85.3 million kgMS,
down 13.9% on the same
period last season. Fonterra
milk collections have been
impacted by the highly
competitive milk supply
market with losses primarily
to milk brokers. Fonterra also
decided to purchase less
third-party milk to focus on a
value-add product mix.
North Island milk
collection in March was
63.5 million kgMS, down
6.6% on last March.
Season-to-date collection
was 793.5 million kgMS,
down 1.5% on last season.
Drought conditions
continued throughout
March in the North Island,
significantly impacting milk
production, particularly in
northern regions.
The end of the month
saw more meaningful
rainfall bringing relief to
some regions.
South Island milk
collection in March was
64.5 million kgMS, up 4.7%
on last March.
Season-to-date collection
was 547.4 million kgMS, up
1.4% on last season.
South Island milk
production continues to
hold. Conditions on farm
are reported as good, with
pasture cover and cow
condition both in good shape
heading into autumn.
Fonterra's New Zealand
collection in March, was
128 million kgMS, down
1.2% on the same month
last season.
Season-to-date collection
was 1,340.9 million kgMS,
0.3% behind collections at
the same time last season.
March was drier than usual
across most of the country,
although some regions did
see periods of significant
rainfall. The dry conditions
continued to weigh on
North Island milk supply
through March, while
South Island production
levels have held well.
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
To view more information,
including a snapshot of the
rolling year-to-date results –
%
6
GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE
APR
APR DEC APR
AUG
DEC
AUG
,
,
,
.
.
.
.
.
PRICE INDEX
NZD USD
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results
Fonterra GDT sales
by destination:
Dairy commodity prices and New Zealand
dollar trend
COVID-19 continued to
spread across the globe
and by mid-March the
World Health Organisation
had officially classified
the outbreak a ‘pandemic’.
Most developed nations
moved into various states
of ‘lock-down’ in an effort
to slow the spread of the
virus and allow their health
systems to cope, however,
these efforts also resulting
in economic contraction.
New Zealand has adopted
a similar approach, with the
forecast domestic economic
downturn weakening the NZ
dollar to below 60 US cents.
Fonterra GDT results at
last trading event
21 April 2020:
The next trading event will be held on 5 May 2020. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.
Change in Fonterra’s
weighted average product
price from previous event
4.2
Fonterra’s weighted
average product price
(USD/MT)
2,896
USD
Fonterra product quantity
sold on GDT
000’ MT
19.7
NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)
SOUTH EAST ASIA
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
OTHER
USD 3,975/MT
8.5
AMF
USD 9,409/MT
3.2
RENNET CASEIN
USD 2,707/MT
4.0
WMP
USD 4,117/MT
3.4
BUTTER
USD 2,431/MT
5.8
SMP
USD 4,480/MT
1.9
CHEDDAR
19,739
MT
LATEST AUCTION
567,111
MT
FINANCIAL
YEAR‑TO‑DATE
Fonterra and YFood
partnership
Fonterra has partnered
with one of Germany’s
fastest-growing start-ups,
YFood, to provide research
and product development
expertise to support
YFood’s expansion.
YFood is already a market
leader in the newly emerging
complete food segment
and provides innovative
"complete food" in the
form of drinks, bars and
powder for people with
busy lifestyles.
Fonterra GM Europe, Thijs
Bosch says: “The strategic
partnership with the YFood
team is a great step to
further strengthen Fonterra’s
position as the leading
ingredient solutions supplier
in the growing active
nutrition market in Europe
and beyond.
“We strongly believe that
our product development
and R&D capabilities will
support the YFood team
in developing great tasting
products with our range of
specialty ingredients.
“This investment in YFood
is part of our strategy which
includes a focus on advanced
ingredients categories that
reflect the way consumers
enjoy dairy as part of
their lifestyles”.
In line with this partnership
Fonterra has made a small
investment of capital.
Our Performance
7
8
Our Co-op
Partnering to help
out where we can -
delivering milk and food
to those in need
When New Zealand went
into COVID-19 lock-down
Fonterra’s In-School
programmes (Fonterra Milk
for Schools and KickStart
Breakfast) let principals
know that, at their discretion,
they could send product that
was already at schools’ home
with those most in need.
Kickstart Breakfast
is a partnership with
Sanitarium and the
New Zealand Government
that provides Anchor™
milk and Weet-Bix™
to all New Zealand
Schools. Fonterra Milk
for Schools provides free
milk to New Zealand
primary schools.
With schools closed for at
least four weeks, the team
switched their focus to see
how the Co-operative could
do its bit in helping the wider
community where it could.
Now, the team are providing
nearly one million serves
of Anchor™ milk to
communities throughout
the country.
Manager of Fonterra’s
In-School Programmes
Vania Martins-Fouche said
the team quickly realised
that getting milk to these
communities during
lock-down was something
they’d need a bit of help
with, so they’ve enlisted the
help of The Salvation Army,
Eat My Lunch, Whanau Ora
and Kiwi Harvest.
“We were looking for charity
partners that had a wider
distribution network and
would be able to take the
milk into the heart of the
communities during the
lock-down period, the four
groups we’ve chosen fit this
bill – it’s a real example of
Good Together,” Vania says.
Good Together are the
words we use to talk about
our Co-op’s purpose,
values and strategy.
Our cheese and butter
bring home the bacon
Every year the New Zealand
Champions of Cheese
Awards celebrate the
country’s best specialty
cheese, yoghurt and butter.
Thanks to our farmers’
top-quality milk, this
year Fonterra, through
NZMP™, Anchor Food
Professionals™ and our own
local cheese brands Kapiti™
and Mainland™, scooped
20 gold, 18 silver and 14
bronze medals across several
different categories.
The New Zealand Champions
of Cheese Awards is the only
national cheese competition
in New Zealand and honours
technical excellence
in the manufacture of
New Zealand cheese. The
awards are judged by an
independent panel of local
and international experts,
ranging from cheese-makers
to food critics.
Winning a total of 52 medals
is a fantastic result and one
our farmers and teams can
be extremely proud of.
Craig Honore, Fonterra’s
Cheese Technical Expert,
says the standards have
been raised for the
New Zealand cheese awards,
and we were up against
tough competition.
“This is great recognition of
the quality and the effort
that’s put in by farmers and
our excellent cheese-makers,
and the focus they have for
making quality products.”
It wasn’t just cheese bringing
home the silverware with
our haul including 17 awards
(11 gold) for butters made at
Kauri, Edgecumbe, Te Rapa,
Te Awamutu, Clandeboye,
Whareroa, and Morrinsville.
In fact, every butter we
entered won an award!
All winners are now in the
running for the Category
Champion, Trophy & Special
Award wins which will be
announced in May.
The Gold Medal Winners were:
• Kapiti Kikorangi Triple Cream Blue
• Kapiti Kahurangi Creamy Blue
• Kapiti Awa Tangy Blue
• Kapiti Kahikatea Camembert
• Kapiti Tuteremoana Te Tihi Premium Vintage Aged Cheddar
• Mainland Crumbly Feta
• Fonterra Lichfield NZMP 3MC
• Fonterra Stirling Mild Cheddar
• Anchor Food Professionals Traditional Cream Cheese
• Fonterra Edgecumbe Unsalted Pastry Butter
• Fonterra Kauri NZMP Salted Butter Spreadable
• Fonterra Te Rapa NZMP Unsalted Butter
• Fonterra Kauri NZMP Unsalted Butter
• Fonterra Te Awamutu NZMP Unsalted Butter
• Fonterra Clandeboye NZMP Unsalted Butter
• Fonterra Morrinsville NZMP Salted Butter
• Fonterra Clandeboye NZMP Unsalted Lactic Butter
• Fonterra Whareroa NZMP Unsalted Lactic Butter
• Mainland Reduced Salt Buttersoft
• Mainland Semi-Soft Butter
Our Co-op
9
PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
DEC JUL JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR
LIQUID MILK M LITRES
,
EXPORTS
AUSTRALIA
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY
MT s
AVERAGE
IMPORTS
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA
ASIACHINA
SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT
MT s
AVERAGE
10
Supplementary Information
Global Dairy Market
The charts on the right
illustrate the year-on-year
changes in imports, exports
and production for a range of
countries that are important
players in global dairy trade.
The absolute size of
the bars represents the
change in imports, exports
or production, relative
to the same period the
previous year.
Averages are shown where
data is complete for the
regions presented.
NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to February; New Zealand and US to March.
NOTE: Data for EU to January; New Zealand, Australia and US to February.
NOTE: Data for Asia, Latin America and Middle East & Africa to January; China to February.
SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR
MAR
JAN
OCT FEB
JUL AUG MAY SEP NOV DEC JUN
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD MT
11
Supplementary Information
Fonterra milk
production
The table on the right
shows Fonterra milk solids
collected in New Zealand
and Australia compared
to the previous season.
MILK COLLECTION
(MILLION KGMS)
MARCH
2020
MARCH
2019
MONTHLY
CHANGE
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2019/20
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2018/19
SEASON-
TO-DATE
CHANGE
Total Fonterra
New Zealand
128.0129.6(1.2%)1,341.01,345.2(0.3%)
North Island63.567.9(6.6%)793.5805.5(1.5%)
South Island64.561.64.7%547.4539.71.4%
Fonterra Australia8.08.3(2.9%)85.399.1(13.9%)
Fonterra GDT results
This table provides more
information on the latest
results, including a snapshot
of the year-to-date results.
LAST TRADING EVENT
(21 APRIL 2020)
YEAR-TO-DATE
(FROM 1 AUGUST 2019)
Quantity Sold on GDT
(Winning MT)
19,739567,111
Change in Quantity Sold on GDT
over same period last year
26.8%1.9%
Weighted Average Product Price
(USD/MT)
2,8963,312
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price over same period
last year
(17.4%)8.8%
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price from previous event
(4.2%)–
Fonterra GDT results
This chart shows Fonterra
GDT prices and volumes over
the past 12 months.
12
AMF
Anhydrous Milk Fat.
BMP
Butter Milk Powder.
DIRA
Dairy Industry Restructuring
Act 2001 (New Zealand).
Farmgate Milk Price
The price for milk supplied in
New Zealand to Fonterra by
farmer shareholders.
Fluid Products
The Fonterra grouping
of fluid milk products
(skim milk, whole milk
and cream – pasteurised
or UHT processed),
concentrated milk products
(evaporated milk and
sweetened condensed milk)
and yoghurt.
GDT
Global Dairy Trade, the
online provider of the twice
monthly global auctions of
dairy ingredients.
kgMS
Kilogram of milk solids, the
measure of the amount of
fat and protein in the milk
supplied to Fonterra.
MPC
Milk Protein Concentrate.
Non-Reference Products
All dairy products, except
for Reference Products,
produced by the NZ
Ingredients business.
Reference Products
The dairy products used
in the calculation of the
Farmgate Milk Price, which
are currently WMP, SMP,
BMP, butter and AMF.
Glossary
Season
New Zealand: A period
of 12 months to 31 May
in each year.
Australia: A period of
12 months to 30 June
in each year.
SMP
Skim Milk Powder.
WMP
Whole Milk Powder.
WPC
Whey Protein Concentrate
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time
Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update April 20202020-04-29
“• Fonterra and YFood partnership. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • New Zealand monthly production down. Australia, EU and US production up. • New Zealand and Australia monthly exports decline. Increase in monthly exports from the US and EU. • China records decline for first two…”
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update March 20202020-03-31
“• Fonterra announced its Interim Results on 18 March. • Fonterra completes sale of Dennington. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Monthly New Zealand production flat and Australian production steadies. Increase in EU and US production. • Monthly exports from the US and EU grow. N…”
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update May 20202020-05-28
“• Third Quarter Business Update. For further details, view our website – 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Monthly New Zealand production flat. Australia production continues to improve. US and EU new season production up. • New Zealand monthly exports decline. Increase in mont…”