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Global Dairy Update May 2020

Operational Update28 May 2020FSFConsumer Staples

• Third Quarter Business Update.
For further details,

view our website –

1

Global Dairy

UPDATE

• Monthly New Zealand production flat.

Australia production continues to improve. US

and EU new season production up.

• New Zealand monthly exports decline.

Increase in monthly exports from Australia, US

and EU.

• China monthly imports up. Latin America, Asia

and Middle East and Africa imports down.

• Fonterra’s milk collection across New Zealand

for the eleven months to 30 April reached

1,447 million kgMS, down 0.5% on same time

last season. Fonterra Australia milk collection

decreased 12.9% to 93.2 million kgMS for the

season to 30 April 2020.

• 2020 Fonterra Dairy Woman of the Year.

• Fonterra employee named New Zealand’s 2020

Champion Cheese-maker.

Key Dates

1 June 2020

Measurement Date for Share

Standard 2020/21 Season

31 July 2020

End of Financial Year 2020

September 2020

FY20 Annual Results

Announcement

20 April 2021

Compliance Date for

2020/21 Season

MAY 2020

%
%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for April 2020

compared to April 2019

Change for April 2020

compared to April 2019

Change for March 2020

compared to March 2019

Change for March 2020

compared to March 2019

Change for the 12 months

to April 2020

Change for the 12 months

to April 2020

Change for the 12 months

to March 2020

Change for the 12 months

to March 2020

1.57.10.6

3.41.01.3

0.9

0.5

2

OUR MARKETS

Global Production

Monthly New Zealand

production flat. Australia

production continues to

improve. US and EU new

season production up

New Zealand milk

production¹ was relatively

flat, down 0.6% on a litres

basis (down 0.8% on

milk solids basis) in April

compared to April last year.

Dry conditions continued

across most of New Zealand

and affected April milk

production. The ongoing

lack of rain resulted in soils

remaining considerably drier

than normal in many parts of

the North Island.

New Zealand milk production

for the 12 months to April

was also relatively flat, 0.5%

lower than last year.

Fonterra collections are

reported for April, see page 5

for details.

Australia milk

production increased 7.1%

in March compared to the

same period last year.

Milk production is

continuing to increase

in the second part of the

season especially from

Victoria and Tasmania as a

result of more favourable

weather conditions.

Production for the 12 months

to March was down 3.4% on

the previous 12 months.

Fonterra collections in

Australia are reported for

April, see page 5 for details.

EU milk production

increased by 0.9% in March

compared to the same

period last year as the EU

season gets underway.

The largest production

growth was seen in Spain

(up 7.1%), followed by The

Netherlands (3.0%) and

Poland (1.9%) but decreases

were experienced by Italy

(2.8%) and the UK (2.4%).

With a demand slowdown in

response to the pandemic,

milk is being redirected

towards powders and the

European Milk Board is

pushing for excess supply

to be reduced through a

voluntary supply reduction.

US milk production

increased by 1.5% in April

compared to the same

period last year.

Despite lower foodservice

demand, US milk production

continued to grow year on

year. Supply restrictions were

put in place by some co-

operatives given the lower

demand and prior months'

milk growth.

Herd sizes decreased for the

first time since December

as cow cull numbers

ramped up.

Milk production for the 12

months to April was 1.3%

higher compared to the

same period last year.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.

Note: 2020 production numbers include one extra day of production in February as 2020 is a leap year.

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

Global Exports

New Zealand monthly

exports decline. Increase

in monthly exports from

Australia, US and EU

Total New Zealand dairy

exports decreased by

13.6%, or 46,715 MT, in March

compared to the same

period last year. However,

March 2019 was a strong

export month.

March exports were primarily

driven by lower demand

for WMP from Thailand

(down 5,000 MT), China

(2,700 MT), and Saudi Arabia

(2,600 MT).

Exports for the 12 months

to March were up 0.4%, or

13,962 MT, on the previous

comparable period. This was

primarily driven by WMP and

fluid milk products.

EU (including UK)

dairy exports increased

by 0.4%, or 1,560 MT, in

February compared to the

same period last year but

at a slower pace than the

past two months. This was

mainly driven by increases

in butter, cheese, and fluid

milk products to China, up

a combined 16,188 MT, and

largely offset by a decrease

in SMP exports to Asia of

13,844  MT.

Exports for the 12 months to

February were up 6.1%, or

332,657 MT, on the previous

comparable period. Fluid

milk products, SMP, butter

and cheese were the main

drivers of this growth, up a

combined 313,937  MT.

US dairy exports

increased 2.6%, or 5,278  MT,

in March compared to

the same period last year,

although the pace continued

to slow compared to

prior months.

The increase was driven by

SMP to Indonesia, whey to

China and WMP to Peru, up

a combined 8,050  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to March 2020 were down

0.8%, or 19,775 MT, on

the previous comparable

period, driven by whey and

AMF, down a combined

65,122 MT, but partially offset

by an increase in SMP up

29,527  MT.

Australia dairy exports

increased by 4.1%, or

2,700 MT, in March

compared to the same

period last year. This was

primarily driven by whey

and cheese, up a combined

2,941  MT.

Exports for the 12 months to

March were down 6.9%, or

54,004 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

Declines were recorded

across a broad range of

products with SMP, whey,

infant formula and cheese

down 70,606 MT but

partially offset by increases

in fluid milk products, up

29,524  MT.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

%

%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for March 2020

compared to March 2019

Change for March 2020

compared to March 2019

Change for March 2020

compared to March 2019

Change for February 2020

compared to February 2019

Change for the 12 months

to March 2020

Change for the 12 months

to March 2020

Change for the 12 months

to March 2020

Change for the 12 months

to February 2020

2.64.113.6

6.96.10.8

0.4

0.4

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

Global Imports

China monthly imports up.

Latin America, Asia, Middle

East and Africa monthly

imports down

Latin America dairy

import volumes¹ decreased

6.8%, or 10,296 MT, in

February compared to

February last year. This was

driven by lower demand for

SMP to Mexico, WMP to

Brazil and infant formula to

Columbia and Guatemala,

down a combined 14,940  MT.

Cheese imports to Mexico

and El Salvador increased by

3,297 MT.

Imports for the 12 months to

February were down 1.9%,

or 37,566 MT, on the prior

comparable period. Decreases

were driven primarily by

infant formula, WMP and

whey, down a combined

67,848 MT, largely offset by

increased WPC, up 19,981  MT.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 7.9% or 31,804  MT,

in February compared to

the same period last year.

Decreases were recorded

for SMP to Vietnam and

Philippines, fluid milk

products to Philippines and

whey to Indonesia, down

34,799  MT.

Imports for the 12 months to

February were down 1.2%, or

59,855 MT, compared to the

same period the previous year.

Decreases were recorded for

SMP, fluid products, WMP

and whey, down a combined

95,675 MT, but offset by

increases in cheese and

lactose of 30,423  MT.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 4.7%, or 15,659  MT,

in February compared to

the same period last year.

Decreases were recorded

principally in infant formula

to Nigeria and fluid milk

products to Iraq and Libya,

down a combined 23,723  MT.

Imports for the 12 months

to February 2020 were

down 2.5%, or 102,864  MT,

compared to the same

period last year. This was

driven by large decreases

in WMP and fluid milk

products, down a combined

121,766 MT, and partly offset

by an increase in SMP of

31,760  MT.

China dairy import

volumes increased by

10.1%, or 23,958 MT, in March

compared to the same

period last year.

The increase was the

result of higher volumes

across most products with

whey, butter, SMP, cheese

and WMP, up a combined

22,373  MT.

As the peak of the pandemic

passes and the economy

begins to slowly reopen, the

increase in imports may not

be sustained once inventory

levels are rebuilt.

Imports for the 12 months

to March were up 7.7%,

driven by fluid milk products

and WMP.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%

%

%%%

%%

Change for February 2020

compared to February 2019

Change for March 2020

compared to March 2019

Change for February 2020

compared to February 2019

Change for February 2020

compared to February 2019

Change for the 12 months

to February 2020

Change for the 12 months

to February 2020

Change for the 12 months

to February 2020

10.1

7.96.8

1.22.5

%

Change for the 12 months

to March 2020

7.7

4.7

1.9

To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%

%

%%

%%%

Season to date

1 July to 30 April

Season to date

1 June to 30 April

Season to date

1 June to 30 April

Season to date

1 June to 30 April

Change for April 2020

compared to April 2019

Change for April 2020

compared to April 2019

Change for April 2020

compared to April 2019

Change for April 2020

compared to April 2019

0.65.49.92.6

12.91.82.00.5

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY

















5

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Milk Collection 2019/20 Season

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

New Zealand Milk Collection

Fonterra's Australia

collection in April was

7.9 million kgMS, an increase of

0.6% on April last season.

Milk collections are stabilising

on improved seasonal conditions

over the February-April period.

Milk production outlooks are

improving for the remainder of

the season and into FY21.

Season-to-date collections

reached 93.2 million kgMS,

down 12.9% on the same period

last season with losses primarily

to milk brokers in a highly

competitive milk supply market.

North Island milk collection

in April was 51 million kgMS,

down 9.9% on last April.

Season-to-date collection was

844.6 million kgMS, down

2.0% on last season.

Effects of the drought are still

being felt across much of the

North Island.

Soil moisture levels remain

low, and pasture growth

rates have slowed, both

of which have impacted

milk production.

South Island milk collection

in April was 55.3 million kgMS,

up 5.4% on last April.

Season-to-date collection was

602.6 million kgMS, up 1.8%

on last season.

The South Island has had a

strong start to autumn, with

milk production up strongly on

the same time last year.

In the Central South, some

farms are reported to have

restarted water irrigation to

alleviate dry soils.

Fonterra's New Zealand

collection in April was

106.3 million kgMS, 2.6%

less than the same month

last season.

Season-to-date collection was

1,447.2 million kgMS, down

0.5% on last season.

Drought conditions lingered

throughout April as rainfall

across northern and eastern

areas of both islands was less

than 50% of normal levels.

Even so, many regions had

more rain in April than in the

entire first quarter of the year.

%

Forecast Farmgate Milk Price for

the 2020/21 season

Forecast milk collection for the

2020/21 season

per

kgMS

5.40-

6.90

1, 52 5

M

kgMS

Outlook

NZD

The inclusion of off-GDT

sales contributed

11 cents per kgMS to the

Milk Price for the season

to 30 April 2020.

%
%

%

%

%

%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

APR  MAY 

JAN MAY AUG  DEC  SEP 




,

,

,

.

.

.

.

.

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity prices and New Zealand

dollar trend

The promise of strong fiscal

spending by governments to

help cushion the economic

effects stemming from

COVID-19, combined with

swift monetary policy actions

from central banks, helped

to produce a calming effect

within financial markets.

Following the heightened

levels of volatility witnessed

in March, the New Zealand

dollar has since displayed

relative stability around

60 US cents.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

19 May 2020:

The next trading event will be held on 2 June 2020. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

0.2

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

2,941

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

15.9

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 3,823/MT

7.1

CHEDDAR

USD 4,079/MT

2.7

AMF

USD 8,719/MT

1.9

RENNET CASEIN

USD 3,803/MT

1.7

BUTTER

USD 2,677/MT

2.5

WMP

USD 2,572/MT

6.0

SMP

15,988

MT

LATEST AUCTION

598,300

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
Our Co-op

2020 Fonterra Dairy

Woman of the Year

Ngāi Tahu Farm Manager

Ash-Leigh Campbell has

been named as the recipient

of the 2020 Fonterra Dairy

Woman of the Year award.

The prestigious award was

announced during the Dairy

Women’s Network online

conference on Wednesday

6 May.

The other finalists

were Auckland based

microbiologist and

biochemist Natasha Maguire

and West Coast dairy farmer

Heather McKay.

After leaving high school

Ash-Leigh studied at Lincoln

University doing diplomas

in Agriculture and Farm

Management and a degree

in Commerce with a major

in agriculture.

The 28-year-old is originally

from Christchurch and

has been working for Ngāi

Tahu’s South Island farming

operation for more than

three years. As Farming

Technical Farm Manager, she

is responsible for assisting

with the management and

performance of eight dairy

and dairy support farms that

include 8,000 cows.

She also assists with

operational and

environmental performance

(audit and compliance),

analytical projects and

the implementation and

improvement of sustainable

farming practices. She is also

Chair of the New Zealand

Young Farmers Board and a

previous Ahuwhenua Young

Māori Farmer Award finalist.

Ash-Leigh says winning the

Fonterra Dairy Woman of

the Year award was “amazing

recognition” of just how far

she had come in the industry.

“The opportunities Fonterra

and Dairy Women’s Network

have provided have given me

the confidence to step out

and grow in the industry in

10 short years.”

“I’ve been bold, I’ve been

brave, and I hope this journey

I’ve been on can showcase

to other young wahine that

anything is achievable.”

Fonterra Chief Executive

Miles Hurrell says the

Co-op is proud to recognise

and help develop women

in dairying who set high

standards for themselves and

for our industry.

“I want to congratulate

Ash-Leigh for winning this

award and also the two

other finalists. They are all

outstanding ambassadors

for our industry and are

contributing to the pathways

that will enable the next

generation of farmers

to succeed.

“Ash-Leigh’s commitment

to sustainable farming and

environmental protection

is clear to see, and makes a

real and positive difference

in her local community and

our industry.”

Dairy Women's Network

Trustee, who heads up the

judging panel, Alison Gibb

said all three women

contributed to the dairy

industry in very different

ways, highlighting the depth

and diversity of how women

are contributing to the dairy

industry in New Zealand.

“Ash-Leigh exudes energy

and passion for the dairy

industry and has actively

sought opportunities to both

contribute and grow in an

industry she loves.”

As Fonterra Dairy Woman of

the Year, Ash-Leigh receives

a scholarship prize of up

to $20,000 to undertake

a professional business

development programme,

sponsored by Fonterra.

The other award presented

at the online conference was

the inaugural Dairy Women’s

Network Regional Leader of

the Year award.

Four finalists were chosen

from the more than

70 volunteer Regional

Leaders and the winner

was Tania Burrows. Tania is

married to Johno, is a mother

to three outgoing girls, and

lower order share-milker in

mid-Canterbury, farming

2,000 head of stock between

their dairy farm and run off

block with four to seven

team members on farm

each season.

She began her leadership

journey as an early childhood

teacher, progressing to

management roles where

she was responsible for

up to 150 children, their

families and a team of seven

teaching staff.

Tania receives registration for

the New Zealand Women’s

Leadership Symposium in

Auckland in late September

that includes travel and

accommodation and

two mentoring sessions

to support her on her

leadership journey or goals.

The three other finalists

were Northland

farmer Sue Skelton,

Jessica Goodwright, who

is share-milking in central

Southland, and north

Canterbury contract milker

Rebecca Green.

Ash-Leigh Campbell

2020 Fonterra Dairy Woman

of the Year

Tania Burrows


Dairy Women's Network

Regional Leader of the Year

Our Co-op
8

Fonterra employee

named New Zealand’s

2020 Champion

Cheese-maker

There was great recognition

for our farmers’ top-quality

milk and our Co-op’s cheese-

making expertise at the 2020

New Zealand Champions of

Cheese Awards.

One of the highlights was

Lichfield’s Brine Salt Cheese

Process Project Manager

Sam Pokaitara winning the

New Zealand Champion

Cheese-maker title, receiving

the highest aggregate score

across the three cheeses he

entered in for judging.

The awards are organised by

the New Zealand Specialist

Cheese-makers Association

(NZSCA), and the cheeses

were judged at the end of

February in a pre-COVID-19

environment.

Sam thought his colleague,

Iain O’Donnell, was pulling

a prank on him when he

received a message from Iain

saying he’d won.

“I didn’t believe him since we

take the mickey all the time!

When I found out it was true,

I had a big grin on my face.

“Everyone on site has been

calling me ‘champ’ – I don’t

think I’m going to live

this down!”

Sam has been working

for the Co-op for 15 years,

primarily in cheese, and has

developed a strong passion

for making it.

As a process manager, Sam

is responsible for the cheese

manufacturing process

from start to finish – from

ordering ingredients and

getting the milk on-site,

to managing the recipes

and troubleshooting to

streamline the process.

We make specialty cheese on

a commodity scale, so every

single block is top quality.

“At the brine salt cheese

plant, it’s a highly mechanical

process with thousands of

moving parts. I love that

it’s a different challenge

every year!”

While work has been a bit

different since COVID-19

came around, Sam has

enjoyed being on site.

“You get cabin fever being

at home, so it’s great to see

different faces aside from

who’s in your bubble.”

Sam says the secret to

making the best cheese

is top quality milk and

experienced operators.

“Manufacturing world class

cheese is only possible with

the best quality milk from

the mighty Waikato, and

good operators who know

what they’re doing.”

Sam’s win wasn’t the only

highlight for our Co-op

on the night. Fonterra

products claimed six other

categories while the icing

on the cake was Kāpiti's

Awa Blue picking up the

evening’s Supreme Award,

the Champion of Champions

(Commercial Cheese) prize,

possibly the first time our

Co-op has taken out this

prestigious title.

Our Co-op’s other

winners were:

• Champion Original Cheese

– Kāpiti Awa Blue

• Champion Fresh

Unripened Cheese –

Anchor Food Professionals

Cream Cheese

• Champion Retail

Cheddar Cheese –Kāpiti

Tuteremoana Te Tihi

Aged Cheddar

• Champion Bulk Cheddar

Cheese – Fonterra Stirling

NZMP Mild Cheddar

• Champion Export Cheese

– Fonterra Lichfield

NZMP 3MC

• Innovative Packaging

Champion Butter –

Mainland Semi-Soft Butter.

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES













,

EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s















AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT 

MT s



















AVERAGE

9


Supplementary Information

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to March; New Zealand and US to April.

NOTE: Data for EU to February; New Zealand, Australia and US to March.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Latin America and Middle East & Africa to February; China to March.

SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR

JAN

OCT FEB

JUL AUG MAY

SEP NOV DEC JUN 



,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD  MT

10


Supplementary Information

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

APRIL

2020

APRIL


2019

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2019/20

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2018/19

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

106.3109.1(2.6%)1,447.21,454.3(0.5%)

North Island51. 056.7(9.9%)844.6862.2(2.0%)

South Island55.352.45.4%602.6592.11.8%

Fonterra Australia7.97.90.6%93.2107.0(12.9%)

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(19 M AY 2020)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2019)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

15, 988598,300

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

8.1%2.1%

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

2,9413,292

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

(15. 6%)7.3%

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

0.2%–

Fonterra GDT results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

11
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products, except

for Reference Products,

produced by the NZ

Ingredients business.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.


Glossary

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time

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