Global Dairy Update May 2020
• Third Quarter Business Update.
For further details,
view our website –
1
Global Dairy
UPDATE
• Monthly New Zealand production flat.
Australia production continues to improve. US
and EU new season production up.
• New Zealand monthly exports decline.
Increase in monthly exports from Australia, US
and EU.
• China monthly imports up. Latin America, Asia
and Middle East and Africa imports down.
• Fonterra’s milk collection across New Zealand
for the eleven months to 30 April reached
1,447 million kgMS, down 0.5% on same time
last season. Fonterra Australia milk collection
decreased 12.9% to 93.2 million kgMS for the
season to 30 April 2020.
• 2020 Fonterra Dairy Woman of the Year.
• Fonterra employee named New Zealand’s 2020
Champion Cheese-maker.
Key Dates
1 June 2020
Measurement Date for Share
Standard 2020/21 Season
31 July 2020
End of Financial Year 2020
September 2020
FY20 Annual Results
Announcement
20 April 2021
Compliance Date for
2020/21 Season
MAY 2020
%
%
%%
%
%
%%
Change for April 2020
compared to April 2019
Change for April 2020
compared to April 2019
Change for March 2020
compared to March 2019
Change for March 2020
compared to March 2019
Change for the 12 months
to April 2020
Change for the 12 months
to April 2020
Change for the 12 months
to March 2020
Change for the 12 months
to March 2020
1.57.10.6
3.41.01.3
0.9
0.5
2
OUR MARKETS
Global Production
Monthly New Zealand
production flat. Australia
production continues to
improve. US and EU new
season production up
New Zealand milk
production¹ was relatively
flat, down 0.6% on a litres
basis (down 0.8% on
milk solids basis) in April
compared to April last year.
Dry conditions continued
across most of New Zealand
and affected April milk
production. The ongoing
lack of rain resulted in soils
remaining considerably drier
than normal in many parts of
the North Island.
New Zealand milk production
for the 12 months to April
was also relatively flat, 0.5%
lower than last year.
Fonterra collections are
reported for April, see page 5
for details.
Australia milk
production increased 7.1%
in March compared to the
same period last year.
Milk production is
continuing to increase
in the second part of the
season especially from
Victoria and Tasmania as a
result of more favourable
weather conditions.
Production for the 12 months
to March was down 3.4% on
the previous 12 months.
Fonterra collections in
Australia are reported for
April, see page 5 for details.
EU milk production
increased by 0.9% in March
compared to the same
period last year as the EU
season gets underway.
The largest production
growth was seen in Spain
(up 7.1%), followed by The
Netherlands (3.0%) and
Poland (1.9%) but decreases
were experienced by Italy
(2.8%) and the UK (2.4%).
With a demand slowdown in
response to the pandemic,
milk is being redirected
towards powders and the
European Milk Board is
pushing for excess supply
to be reduced through a
voluntary supply reduction.
US milk production
increased by 1.5% in April
compared to the same
period last year.
Despite lower foodservice
demand, US milk production
continued to grow year on
year. Supply restrictions were
put in place by some co-
operatives given the lower
demand and prior months'
milk growth.
Herd sizes decreased for the
first time since December
as cow cull numbers
ramped up.
Milk production for the 12
months to April was 1.3%
higher compared to the
same period last year.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in production –
1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.
Note: 2020 production numbers include one extra day of production in February as 2020 is a leap year.
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in exports –
3
OUR MARKETS
Global Exports
New Zealand monthly
exports decline. Increase
in monthly exports from
Australia, US and EU
Total New Zealand dairy
exports decreased by
13.6%, or 46,715 MT, in March
compared to the same
period last year. However,
March 2019 was a strong
export month.
March exports were primarily
driven by lower demand
for WMP from Thailand
(down 5,000 MT), China
(2,700 MT), and Saudi Arabia
(2,600 MT).
Exports for the 12 months
to March were up 0.4%, or
13,962 MT, on the previous
comparable period. This was
primarily driven by WMP and
fluid milk products.
EU (including UK)
dairy exports increased
by 0.4%, or 1,560 MT, in
February compared to the
same period last year but
at a slower pace than the
past two months. This was
mainly driven by increases
in butter, cheese, and fluid
milk products to China, up
a combined 16,188 MT, and
largely offset by a decrease
in SMP exports to Asia of
13,844 MT.
Exports for the 12 months to
February were up 6.1%, or
332,657 MT, on the previous
comparable period. Fluid
milk products, SMP, butter
and cheese were the main
drivers of this growth, up a
combined 313,937 MT.
US dairy exports
increased 2.6%, or 5,278 MT,
in March compared to
the same period last year,
although the pace continued
to slow compared to
prior months.
The increase was driven by
SMP to Indonesia, whey to
China and WMP to Peru, up
a combined 8,050 MT.
Exports for the 12 months
to March 2020 were down
0.8%, or 19,775 MT, on
the previous comparable
period, driven by whey and
AMF, down a combined
65,122 MT, but partially offset
by an increase in SMP up
29,527 MT.
Australia dairy exports
increased by 4.1%, or
2,700 MT, in March
compared to the same
period last year. This was
primarily driven by whey
and cheese, up a combined
2,941 MT.
Exports for the 12 months to
March were down 6.9%, or
54,004 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
Declines were recorded
across a broad range of
products with SMP, whey,
infant formula and cheese
down 70,606 MT but
partially offset by increases
in fluid milk products, up
29,524 MT.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
%
%
%%
%
%
%%
Change for March 2020
compared to March 2019
Change for March 2020
compared to March 2019
Change for March 2020
compared to March 2019
Change for February 2020
compared to February 2019
Change for the 12 months
to March 2020
Change for the 12 months
to March 2020
Change for the 12 months
to March 2020
Change for the 12 months
to February 2020
2.64.113.6
6.96.10.8
0.4
0.4
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in imports –
4
OUR MARKETS
Global Imports
China monthly imports up.
Latin America, Asia, Middle
East and Africa monthly
imports down
Latin America dairy
import volumes¹ decreased
6.8%, or 10,296 MT, in
February compared to
February last year. This was
driven by lower demand for
SMP to Mexico, WMP to
Brazil and infant formula to
Columbia and Guatemala,
down a combined 14,940 MT.
Cheese imports to Mexico
and El Salvador increased by
3,297 MT.
Imports for the 12 months to
February were down 1.9%,
or 37,566 MT, on the prior
comparable period. Decreases
were driven primarily by
infant formula, WMP and
whey, down a combined
67,848 MT, largely offset by
increased WPC, up 19,981 MT.
Asia (excluding China)
dairy import volumes¹
decreased 7.9% or 31,804 MT,
in February compared to
the same period last year.
Decreases were recorded
for SMP to Vietnam and
Philippines, fluid milk
products to Philippines and
whey to Indonesia, down
34,799 MT.
Imports for the 12 months to
February were down 1.2%, or
59,855 MT, compared to the
same period the previous year.
Decreases were recorded for
SMP, fluid products, WMP
and whey, down a combined
95,675 MT, but offset by
increases in cheese and
lactose of 30,423 MT.
Middle East and Africa
dairy import volumes¹
decreased 4.7%, or 15,659 MT,
in February compared to
the same period last year.
Decreases were recorded
principally in infant formula
to Nigeria and fluid milk
products to Iraq and Libya,
down a combined 23,723 MT.
Imports for the 12 months
to February 2020 were
down 2.5%, or 102,864 MT,
compared to the same
period last year. This was
driven by large decreases
in WMP and fluid milk
products, down a combined
121,766 MT, and partly offset
by an increase in SMP of
31,760 MT.
China dairy import
volumes increased by
10.1%, or 23,958 MT, in March
compared to the same
period last year.
The increase was the
result of higher volumes
across most products with
whey, butter, SMP, cheese
and WMP, up a combined
22,373 MT.
As the peak of the pandemic
passes and the economy
begins to slowly reopen, the
increase in imports may not
be sustained once inventory
levels are rebuilt.
Imports for the 12 months
to March were up 7.7%,
driven by fluid milk products
and WMP.
LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA
1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.
%
%
%%%
%%
Change for February 2020
compared to February 2019
Change for March 2020
compared to March 2019
Change for February 2020
compared to February 2019
Change for February 2020
compared to February 2019
Change for the 12 months
to February 2020
Change for the 12 months
to February 2020
Change for the 12 months
to February 2020
10.1
7.96.8
1.22.5
%
Change for the 12 months
to March 2020
7.7
4.7
1.9
To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New
Zealand and Australia compared
to the previous season –
%
%
%%
%%%
Season to date
1 July to 30 April
Season to date
1 June to 30 April
Season to date
1 June to 30 April
Season to date
1 June to 30 April
Change for April 2020
compared to April 2019
Change for April 2020
compared to April 2019
Change for April 2020
compared to April 2019
Change for April 2020
compared to April 2019
0.65.49.92.6
12.91.82.00.5
VOLUME M LITRESDAY
JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
5
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Milk Collection 2019/20 Season
NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA
New Zealand Milk Collection
Fonterra's Australia
collection in April was
7.9 million kgMS, an increase of
0.6% on April last season.
Milk collections are stabilising
on improved seasonal conditions
over the February-April period.
Milk production outlooks are
improving for the remainder of
the season and into FY21.
Season-to-date collections
reached 93.2 million kgMS,
down 12.9% on the same period
last season with losses primarily
to milk brokers in a highly
competitive milk supply market.
North Island milk collection
in April was 51 million kgMS,
down 9.9% on last April.
Season-to-date collection was
844.6 million kgMS, down
2.0% on last season.
Effects of the drought are still
being felt across much of the
North Island.
Soil moisture levels remain
low, and pasture growth
rates have slowed, both
of which have impacted
milk production.
South Island milk collection
in April was 55.3 million kgMS,
up 5.4% on last April.
Season-to-date collection was
602.6 million kgMS, up 1.8%
on last season.
The South Island has had a
strong start to autumn, with
milk production up strongly on
the same time last year.
In the Central South, some
farms are reported to have
restarted water irrigation to
alleviate dry soils.
Fonterra's New Zealand
collection in April was
106.3 million kgMS, 2.6%
less than the same month
last season.
Season-to-date collection was
1,447.2 million kgMS, down
0.5% on last season.
Drought conditions lingered
throughout April as rainfall
across northern and eastern
areas of both islands was less
than 50% of normal levels.
Even so, many regions had
more rain in April than in the
entire first quarter of the year.
%
Forecast Farmgate Milk Price for
the 2020/21 season
Forecast milk collection for the
2020/21 season
per
kgMS
5.40-
6.90
1, 52 5
M
kgMS
Outlook
NZD
The inclusion of off-GDT
sales contributed
11 cents per kgMS to the
Milk Price for the season
to 30 April 2020.
%
%
%
%
%
%
To view more information,
including a snapshot of the
rolling year-to-date results –
%
6
GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE
APR
MAY
JAN MAY AUG
DEC
SEP
,
,
,
.
.
.
.
.
PRICE INDEX
NZD USD
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results
Fonterra GDT sales
by destination:
Dairy commodity prices and New Zealand
dollar trend
The promise of strong fiscal
spending by governments to
help cushion the economic
effects stemming from
COVID-19, combined with
swift monetary policy actions
from central banks, helped
to produce a calming effect
within financial markets.
Following the heightened
levels of volatility witnessed
in March, the New Zealand
dollar has since displayed
relative stability around
60 US cents.
Fonterra GDT results at
last trading event
19 May 2020:
The next trading event will be held on 2 June 2020. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.
Change in Fonterra’s
weighted average product
price from previous event
0.2
Fonterra’s weighted
average product price
(USD/MT)
2,941
USD
Fonterra product quantity
sold on GDT
000’ MT
15.9
NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)
SOUTH EAST ASIA
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
OTHER
USD 3,823/MT
7.1
CHEDDAR
USD 4,079/MT
2.7
AMF
USD 8,719/MT
1.9
RENNET CASEIN
USD 3,803/MT
1.7
BUTTER
USD 2,677/MT
2.5
WMP
USD 2,572/MT
6.0
SMP
15,988
MT
LATEST AUCTION
598,300
MT
FINANCIAL
YEAR‑TO‑DATE
7
Our Co-op
2020 Fonterra Dairy
Woman of the Year
Ngāi Tahu Farm Manager
Ash-Leigh Campbell has
been named as the recipient
of the 2020 Fonterra Dairy
Woman of the Year award.
The prestigious award was
announced during the Dairy
Women’s Network online
conference on Wednesday
6 May.
The other finalists
were Auckland based
microbiologist and
biochemist Natasha Maguire
and West Coast dairy farmer
Heather McKay.
After leaving high school
Ash-Leigh studied at Lincoln
University doing diplomas
in Agriculture and Farm
Management and a degree
in Commerce with a major
in agriculture.
The 28-year-old is originally
from Christchurch and
has been working for Ngāi
Tahu’s South Island farming
operation for more than
three years. As Farming
Technical Farm Manager, she
is responsible for assisting
with the management and
performance of eight dairy
and dairy support farms that
include 8,000 cows.
She also assists with
operational and
environmental performance
(audit and compliance),
analytical projects and
the implementation and
improvement of sustainable
farming practices. She is also
Chair of the New Zealand
Young Farmers Board and a
previous Ahuwhenua Young
Māori Farmer Award finalist.
Ash-Leigh says winning the
Fonterra Dairy Woman of
the Year award was “amazing
recognition” of just how far
she had come in the industry.
“The opportunities Fonterra
and Dairy Women’s Network
have provided have given me
the confidence to step out
and grow in the industry in
10 short years.”
“I’ve been bold, I’ve been
brave, and I hope this journey
I’ve been on can showcase
to other young wahine that
anything is achievable.”
Fonterra Chief Executive
Miles Hurrell says the
Co-op is proud to recognise
and help develop women
in dairying who set high
standards for themselves and
for our industry.
“I want to congratulate
Ash-Leigh for winning this
award and also the two
other finalists. They are all
outstanding ambassadors
for our industry and are
contributing to the pathways
that will enable the next
generation of farmers
to succeed.
“Ash-Leigh’s commitment
to sustainable farming and
environmental protection
is clear to see, and makes a
real and positive difference
in her local community and
our industry.”
Dairy Women's Network
Trustee, who heads up the
judging panel, Alison Gibb
said all three women
contributed to the dairy
industry in very different
ways, highlighting the depth
and diversity of how women
are contributing to the dairy
industry in New Zealand.
“Ash-Leigh exudes energy
and passion for the dairy
industry and has actively
sought opportunities to both
contribute and grow in an
industry she loves.”
As Fonterra Dairy Woman of
the Year, Ash-Leigh receives
a scholarship prize of up
to $20,000 to undertake
a professional business
development programme,
sponsored by Fonterra.
The other award presented
at the online conference was
the inaugural Dairy Women’s
Network Regional Leader of
the Year award.
Four finalists were chosen
from the more than
70 volunteer Regional
Leaders and the winner
was Tania Burrows. Tania is
married to Johno, is a mother
to three outgoing girls, and
lower order share-milker in
mid-Canterbury, farming
2,000 head of stock between
their dairy farm and run off
block with four to seven
team members on farm
each season.
She began her leadership
journey as an early childhood
teacher, progressing to
management roles where
she was responsible for
up to 150 children, their
families and a team of seven
teaching staff.
Tania receives registration for
the New Zealand Women’s
Leadership Symposium in
Auckland in late September
that includes travel and
accommodation and
two mentoring sessions
to support her on her
leadership journey or goals.
The three other finalists
were Northland
farmer Sue Skelton,
Jessica Goodwright, who
is share-milking in central
Southland, and north
Canterbury contract milker
Rebecca Green.
Ash-Leigh Campbell
2020 Fonterra Dairy Woman
of the Year
Tania Burrows
Dairy Women's Network
Regional Leader of the Year
Our Co-op
8
Fonterra employee
named New Zealand’s
2020 Champion
Cheese-maker
There was great recognition
for our farmers’ top-quality
milk and our Co-op’s cheese-
making expertise at the 2020
New Zealand Champions of
Cheese Awards.
One of the highlights was
Lichfield’s Brine Salt Cheese
Process Project Manager
Sam Pokaitara winning the
New Zealand Champion
Cheese-maker title, receiving
the highest aggregate score
across the three cheeses he
entered in for judging.
The awards are organised by
the New Zealand Specialist
Cheese-makers Association
(NZSCA), and the cheeses
were judged at the end of
February in a pre-COVID-19
environment.
Sam thought his colleague,
Iain O’Donnell, was pulling
a prank on him when he
received a message from Iain
saying he’d won.
“I didn’t believe him since we
take the mickey all the time!
When I found out it was true,
I had a big grin on my face.
“Everyone on site has been
calling me ‘champ’ – I don’t
think I’m going to live
this down!”
Sam has been working
for the Co-op for 15 years,
primarily in cheese, and has
developed a strong passion
for making it.
As a process manager, Sam
is responsible for the cheese
manufacturing process
from start to finish – from
ordering ingredients and
getting the milk on-site,
to managing the recipes
and troubleshooting to
streamline the process.
We make specialty cheese on
a commodity scale, so every
single block is top quality.
“At the brine salt cheese
plant, it’s a highly mechanical
process with thousands of
moving parts. I love that
it’s a different challenge
every year!”
While work has been a bit
different since COVID-19
came around, Sam has
enjoyed being on site.
“You get cabin fever being
at home, so it’s great to see
different faces aside from
who’s in your bubble.”
Sam says the secret to
making the best cheese
is top quality milk and
experienced operators.
“Manufacturing world class
cheese is only possible with
the best quality milk from
the mighty Waikato, and
good operators who know
what they’re doing.”
Sam’s win wasn’t the only
highlight for our Co-op
on the night. Fonterra
products claimed six other
categories while the icing
on the cake was Kāpiti's
Awa Blue picking up the
evening’s Supreme Award,
the Champion of Champions
(Commercial Cheese) prize,
possibly the first time our
Co-op has taken out this
prestigious title.
Our Co-op’s other
winners were:
• Champion Original Cheese
– Kāpiti Awa Blue
• Champion Fresh
Unripened Cheese –
Anchor Food Professionals
Cream Cheese
• Champion Retail
Cheddar Cheese –Kāpiti
Tuteremoana Te Tihi
Aged Cheddar
• Champion Bulk Cheddar
Cheese – Fonterra Stirling
NZMP Mild Cheddar
• Champion Export Cheese
– Fonterra Lichfield
NZMP 3MC
• Innovative Packaging
Champion Butter –
Mainland Semi-Soft Butter.
PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
DEC JUL JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR
LIQUID MILK M LITRES
,
EXPORTS
AUSTRALIA
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY
MT s
AVERAGE
IMPORTS
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA
ASIACHINA
SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT
MT s
AVERAGE
9
Supplementary Information
Global Dairy Market
The charts on the right
illustrate the year-on-year
changes in imports, exports
and production for a range of
countries that are important
players in global dairy trade.
The absolute size of
the bars represents the
change in imports, exports
or production, relative
to the same period the
previous year.
Averages are shown where
data is complete for the
regions presented.
NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to March; New Zealand and US to April.
NOTE: Data for EU to February; New Zealand, Australia and US to March.
NOTE: Data for Asia, Latin America and Middle East & Africa to February; China to March.
SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR
MAR
JAN
OCT FEB
JUL AUG MAY
SEP NOV DEC JUN
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD MT
10
Supplementary Information
Fonterra milk
production
The table on the right
shows Fonterra milk solids
collected in New Zealand
and Australia compared
to the previous season.
MILK COLLECTION
(MILLION KGMS)
APRIL
2020
APRIL
2019
MONTHLY
CHANGE
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2019/20
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2018/19
SEASON-
TO-DATE
CHANGE
Total Fonterra
New Zealand
106.3109.1(2.6%)1,447.21,454.3(0.5%)
North Island51. 056.7(9.9%)844.6862.2(2.0%)
South Island55.352.45.4%602.6592.11.8%
Fonterra Australia7.97.90.6%93.2107.0(12.9%)
Fonterra GDT results
This table provides more
information on the latest
results, including a snapshot
of the year-to-date results.
LAST TRADING EVENT
(19 M AY 2020)
YEAR-TO-DATE
(FROM 1 AUGUST 2019)
Quantity Sold on GDT
(Winning MT)
15, 988598,300
Change in Quantity Sold on GDT
over same period last year
8.1%2.1%
Weighted Average Product Price
(USD/MT)
2,9413,292
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price over same period
last year
(15. 6%)7.3%
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price from previous event
0.2%–
Fonterra GDT results
This chart shows Fonterra
GDT prices and volumes over
the past 12 months.
11
AMF
Anhydrous Milk Fat.
BMP
Butter Milk Powder.
DIRA
Dairy Industry Restructuring
Act 2001 (New Zealand).
Farmgate Milk Price
The price for milk supplied in
New Zealand to Fonterra by
farmer shareholders.
Fluid Products
The Fonterra grouping
of fluid milk products
(skim milk, whole milk
and cream – pasteurised
or UHT processed),
concentrated milk products
(evaporated milk and
sweetened condensed milk)
and yoghurt.
GDT
Global Dairy Trade, the
online provider of the twice
monthly global auctions of
dairy ingredients.
kgMS
Kilogram of milk solids, the
measure of the amount of
fat and protein in the milk
supplied to Fonterra.
MPC
Milk Protein Concentrate.
Non-Reference Products
All dairy products, except
for Reference Products,
produced by the NZ
Ingredients business.
Reference Products
The dairy products used
in the calculation of the
Farmgate Milk Price, which
are currently WMP, SMP,
BMP, butter and AMF.
Glossary
Season
New Zealand: A period
of 12 months to 31 May
in each year.
Australia: A period of
12 months to 30 June
in each year.
SMP
Skim Milk Powder.
WMP
Whole Milk Powder.
WPC
Whey Protein Concentrate
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time
Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update May 20202020-05-28
“• Third Quarter Business Update. For further details, view our website – 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Monthly New Zealand production flat. Australia production continues to improve. US and EU new season production up. • New Zealand monthly exports decline. Increase in mont…”
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update March 20202020-03-31
“• Fonterra announced its Interim Results on 18 March. • Fonterra completes sale of Dennington. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Monthly New Zealand production flat and Australian production steadies. Increase in EU and US production. • Monthly exports from the US and EU grow. N…”
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update April 20202020-04-29
“• Fonterra and YFood partnership. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • New Zealand monthly production down. Australia, EU and US production up. • New Zealand and Australia monthly exports decline. Increase in monthly exports from the US and EU. • China records decline for first two…”