Quarterly Operational Update
QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
Three months ended 30 June 2021
MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE01
PHYSICAL GENERATION DOWN
85GWh IN THE QUARTER,
126GWh ACROSS THE FULL-YEAR
ELEVATED Q4 SPOT PRICES REFLECT
SHORT-TERM FUEL CONSTRAINTS,
FUTURES PRICES EASING
CFD PURCHASES INCREASE BY 315GWh
VERSUS PCP AS MERCURY
MITIGATES PRICE RISK
>> QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS
GENERATION
VOLUMES
FALL
SPOT PRICES
ELEVATED
HEDGE
PURCHASES
LIFT
>> COMMENTARY
HYDRO GENERATION DOWNAS LOW INFLOWS PERSIST; GEOTHERMAL GENERATION IMPACTED BY KAWERAU OUTAGE
Mercury's hydro generation in FY2021-Q4 of 727GWh (193GWh below average
1
) equalledthe prior comparable period for the lowest level of
hydro generation in company history. Thiswas due to sustained dry hydrology that saw Waikato catchmentinflows at the 13th percentile
2
for
the quarter and at the 16
th
percentile
3
for FY2021. Consequently, hydro storage in Lake Taupo ended the year at 143GWh below average
2
.
Geothermal generation decreased from 675GWh in FY2020-Q4 to 590GWh in the most recent quarter due to an unplanned outage at the
Kawerau power station that started on 7 June. The station is currently expected to return to service this week.
ELEVATED PRICES REFLECT CURRENT FUEL CONSTRAINTS WITH FUTURES EASING
Average spot prices in the quarter reflected low national hydro storage and continued gas deliverability issues, increasing to $277/MWh at
Otahuhu and $261/MWh at Benmore from $115/MWh and $102/MWh respectively in FY2020-Q4. Elevated prices were also seen in
Mercury's CFD purchases for FY2021-Q4 which increased by 315GWh, from 464GWh in FY2020-Q4 to 779GWh, to mitigate price risk from
decreased physical generation.
Futures prices eased during the quarter due to a lift in national hydrology towards the end of June. FY2022 futures prices decreased from
$193/MWh and $177/MWh at Otahuhu and Benmore at the start of the quarter to $170/MWh and $151/MWh respectively by the end of the
quarter, with a subsequent further reduction to $144/MWh and $122/MWh as at 16 July 2021.
COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL SALES LIFT AS MERCURY POSITIONS PORTFOLIO
Notwithstanding elevated spot prices, Mercury continued to engage with customers seeking to re-contract resulting in Commercial &
Industrial segment sales (including both physical and financial) increasing by 227GWh, from 731GWh in FY2020-Q4 to 958GWh in FY2021-
Q4. The Commercial & Industrial sales yield increased by 9.1% from $93/MWh in FY2020-Q4 to $102/MWh in FY2021-Q4.
Customer numbers continued to decrease, dropping by 3,000 across the quarter to 328,000. This was reflected in Mass Market sales
volumes which decreased by 63GWh to 672GWh versus 735GWh in the same quarter last year.
DEMAND IN Q4 LIFTS VERSUS COVID-19 LOCKDOWN AFFECTED PCP; DEMAND IN QUARTERS 1-3 DECREASES
Temperature-adjusted demand in FY2021-Q4 increased by 5.8% as the prior comparable period was affected by the COVID-19 Level 4
lockdown. Increases were seen across all sectors, with contributions from each sector being: urban (+2.5%), rural (+1.0), industrial (+1.2%),
dairy (+0.8%) and irrigation (+0.3%).
The recovery in Q4 drove full-year temperature-adjusted demand up by 1.0%. Excluding this period, demand in the first three quarters in
FY2021 decreased by -0.6% versus the same quarters in FY2020, largely driven by reduced industrial demand due to production cutsat the
Tiwai Point aluminium smelter, Norske Skog's Kawerau mill and the Marsden Point refinery.
1
For quarters ended 30 June since 1999
2
For quarters ended 30 June since 1927
3
For 12-month periods ended 30 June since 1927
328348
291307
3741
4547
VWAP
1
VolumeVWAP
1
VolumeVWAP
1
VolumeVWAP
1
Volume
(GWh)(GWh)(GWh)(GWh)
1,2051,1084,5224,361
2
6727352,6542,892
3
5333731,8681,469
5654213213
4
1,2621,1634,7354,573
5
8468073,4323,377
4253581,5591,323
6
4214491,8732,054
31183166747
1,3171,4026,2056,331
7277273,6113,712
7
5906752,5942,619
77946419681,478
6
77946419681,478
8
1.021.011.011.02
1
VWAP is volume weighted average energy-only price sold to customers after lines, metering and fees
2
Mass market includes residential segments and non time-of-use commercial customers
3
Fixed-price, variable-volume (FPVV) sales to time-of-use commercial customers
4
Excludes spot customer purchases
5
6
7
Includes Mercury's 65% share of Nga Awa Purua generation
8
Includes all physical and financial buys and sells except spot customer purchases
MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE02
Includes Virtual Asset Swap volumes of 149 GWh for the 3 months ended 30 June 2021 and 149 GWh for the 3 months ended 30 June 2020 and of 599
GWh for the 12 months ended 30 June 2021 and 601 GWh for the 12 months ended 30 June 2020
193.1398.81
170.4498.91
139.0583.69
139.0583.69
Excludes FTR and trading ASX positions (including positions held to maturity which were previously disclosed in CfD volumes)
Spot Settlement of CfDs
PORTFOLIO LWAP/GWAP
113.97266.79
Geothermal (consolidated)
180.04109.51
186.94117.03
95.7484.59
175.21101.15
176.38104.12
193.56115.14
91.7583.63
86.9682.15
139.70130.84
101.1594.05
($/MWh)($/MWh)
123.77118.45
Twelve months ended
30 June 2021
Twelve months ended
30 June 2020
ELECTRICITY SALES
North Island Customers
Commercial & Industrial
Network Losses
100.05
136.45
113.09
Physical129.27124.20
Mass Market142.10
OPERATING INFORMATION
Three months ended
30 June 2021
Three months ended
30 June 2020
($/MWh)
Dual Fuel Customers
($/MWh)
South Island Customers
ELECTRICITY CUSTOMERS
('000s ICPs)
269.63
87.10
Other Sell CfDs
277.51117.16
Physical Purchases
Financial
Spot Settlement of CfDs
End User CfDs85.79
109.30
Spot Customer Purchases
86.16
287.92128.97
98.1586.00
109.24
ELECTRICITY GENERATION
Physical
84.28210.08 Buy CfDs
264.93107.42
210.0884.28Financial
295.88134.90
121.59282.02
Hydro
>> OPERATING STATISTICS
> ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY COMPANY FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 30 JUNE
Source: Electricity Authority
> SHARE OF ELECTRICITY SALES (GWh) FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 30 JUNE (EXCLUDING CFDs)
Source: Mercury Purchases and Transpower SCADA
MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE03
13%
29%
23%
23%
4%
8%
Financial Year Q4 2021
MERCURY
MERIDIAN ENERGY
CONTACT ENERGY
GENESIS ENERGY
TRUSTPOWER / TILT
OTHER
>> MARKET DATA
15%
35%
21%
18%
4%
7%
Financial Year Q4 2020
13%
87%
Financial Year Q4 2021
MERCURY
OTHER
14%
86%
Financial Year Q4 2020
> OTAHUHU WHOLESALE PRICE AND NATIONAL HYDRO STORAGE LEVELS
Source: NZX Hydro and NZEM Pricing Manager (NZX)
> TAUPO STORAGE
Source: NZX Hydro
MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE04
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun
$/MWh
GWh
AVERAGE NATIONAL STORAGEFY2020 NATIONAL STORAGE
FY2021 NATIONAL STORAGEROLLING 12 MONTH AVERAGE OTA PRICE
ROLLING 12 MONTH AVERAGE BEN PRICE
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun
GWh
AVERAGE SINCE 1999FY2020FY2021
> OTAHUHU ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE
Source: ASX
> BENMORE ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE
Source: ASX
MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE05
$114.01
$95.65
$92.56
$135.59
$119.06
$103.11
$187.52
$193.18
$143.18
$184.24
$170.44
$144.05
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
FY21FY22FY23
$/MWh
Financial Year
AS AT 30 JUNE 2020AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2020AS AT 31 MARCH 2021AS AT 30 JUNE 2021
$104.40
$79.83
$75.74
$120.57
$100.69
$82.16
$174.84
$177.01
$125.69
$173.13
$151.34
$124.13
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
FY21FY22FY23
$/MWh
Financial Year
AS AT 30 JUNE 2020AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2020AS AT 31 MARCH 2021AS AT 30 JUNE 2021
> NATIONAL CONSUMPTION (NON-TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED)
Source: Transpower Information Exchange
> AUCKLAND CLIMATE SUMMARY ( ⁰C)
FINANCIAL YEAR
Q1Q2Q3Q4
202112.316.919.514.8
202012.316.719.514.4
201912.116.320.214.1
201812.317.220.714.3
201712.116.119.314.3
Historical Average (since 1999)11.916.119.414.2
Source: Met Service
> MONTHLY TOTAL CONSUMER RETAIL SWITCHING (ICPs)
Source: Electricity Authority
MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE06
8,593
8,865
9,022
8,824
8,418
8,945
1,261
1,251
1,252
1,307
1,223
1,220
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Q4 2016Q4 2017Q4 2018Q4 2019Q4 2020Q4 2021
GWh
NATIONAL CONSUMPTIONTIWAI POINT ALUMINIUM SMELTER CONSUMPTION
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
% Churn
Monthly ICPs
NZ MARKET CHURN (LHS)ANNUAL NZ MARKET CHURN % (RHS)
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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